A new face will be leading State House Republicans come January. GOP Alligators say Rep. Tom Taylor of Farmington is set to be anointed as House Minority Leader by his fellow 27 House R's when they confab this weekend. Fiery Dan Foley of Roswell is expected to get the nod to become the new House Minority Whip.

The question of whether this leadership team will be more assertive than the previous one in dealing with powerful Guv Big Bill remains to be seen. Taylor, a former Farmington mayor, will replace retiring Ted Hobbs who was respected by his colleagues, but in his final years at the helm seemed to drift. The Governor's budget passed with few GOP squeals as hundreds of millions continued to pour into the Roundhouse via oil and gas royalties.

Taylor, 57, is a the ranking R on the House Taxation Committee and in private life is involved in real estate and investments, giving him the financial background to perhaps try to give more than lip service to "fiscal responsibility" in pork-engorged Santa Fe .

Not much of the billions in extra gas and oil royalty money has flowed directly back to taxpayers. Will Taylor start to make some serious moves--like trying to persuade conservative Democrats that tax rebates should be considered? Or will the R's simply keep their seats at the table, gorging quietly with everyone else?

As for Foley, there's no love lost between him and the Governor who even supported a write-in candidate against Foley in last Tuesday's election. But Foley's temperament and approach has not sold statewide, especially in the media center here in the Mid-Rio Grande Valley. If he can find a tone other than slash and burn and looks at a map of the entire state, not just conservative Chaves, he might potentially give Big Bill more serious headaches.

PATSY AND HEATHER
Wilson
It's going to be like a break-up around here trying to imagine life without a daily dose of Heather and Patsy. But the ABQ congressional race is sputtering to an end and the scenario I laid out yesterday for Wilson's eventual victory over Democrat Madrid remains unchanged. In fact, Wilson declared victory last night after 4,500 hand-tallied ballots were counted and showed her lead widening to 1,607 votes. It was Heather 104,575 and Patsy 102,968. Dem Party Chair Wertheim said Wilson's victory speech was "obscenely premature," but with only some 4,000 provisional and other ballots left to count, many of which will be disqualified, only a recount that uncovered major irregularities could change the result. Such recounts rarely do.

Wilson, who is escaping with her political life by the skin of her teeth, seems to finally be waking up and smelling the coffee on the no-end-in-sight Iraq war which caused her party to be tossed out of the majority in both the Senate and House and has Wilson demoted to backbencher. Last night she implied that she has been critical of the war directly to the president, but doesn't voice that criticism publicly because she does not want to lower the morale of the troops.

If that sounds like a statement built upon a Democratic landslide, it is. Whether she likes it or not, there's going to be a new Heather Wilson. The in-your-face defiance over Iraq by the GOP--some would argue arrogance--has now been tempered by the voice of the people. Like President Bush, Wilson has no choice but to listen and change or else the next tidal wave that comes will not spare her.

HEATHER'S NEW REALITY

Here is more on the not so pretty picture facing Heather from reader Dave Hawiger:

"If Congresswoman Wilson wins,...Albuquerque would have a minority party congresswoman who is in a swing district that will be a prime target for Democrats in the next election. She will be heavily pressured by national Republicans to follow the Bush line in order to delay or thwart Democratic initiatives. This will interfere with her independence."

A RED-EYED MARY

Mary Herrera has to be the most tired lady in New Mexico. Just take a look at the photo of the red-eyed Bernalillo county clerk and secretary of state-elect taken by Mark Bralley yesterday as she continued to preside over the counting of the remaining votes from Election 06'.

Herrera has become a human punching bag for partisans on both sides as the Wilson-Madrid count goes on, but she is following procedures laid out in state law. If the Wilson and Madrid camps think she is doing such a crummy job, why don't they come up with more volunteers to count the votes? For the citizen volunteers who are over at the warehouse doing the tough, thankless work of hand-tallying, please accept a thank you from this corner. As for Mary, she's earned her paycheck, and soon, a good night's rest.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

How ironic. The all-paper ballot system that New Mexico Republicans fought tooth and nail may be their saving grace as the vote count nears an end in the battle for the ABQ Congressional seat between GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson and Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid. When all is said and done it will be hard paper evidence backing up the final vote count, not electronic data, which has become so mistrusted because of recent election mishaps.

The count, political pros say, continues to heavily favor Wilson who late Wednesday had a lead of 1395 votes. (Heather--102,376 to 100,981 for Madrid.) There are potentially some 8,000 votes left to be counted, but many are provisional ballots and will be disqualified. Even if all 8,000 were counted Madrid would need at least 59% of them to catch Wilson. Not likely. Her best chance to get back in the race would be the discovery of additional uncounted ballots, or a counting glitch heretofore unnoticed. Perhaps those long odds held at bay any recrimination on the day after the day after Election Day.

BENCH WARMING

If Wilson goes on to take the prize, it will be worth less to her than in the past. For the first time she will be a "backbencher" or, as one baseball fan put it: "Heather will be riding the pine."

The new Democratic Congress will roll over her if she fights them on any plans to end the no-end-in-sight Iraq war, pushing her further into the corner of the unpopular President who she had to separate from during the campaign. She resisted any change in her position during the campaign, but a statement from conservative GOP Southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce may be a harbinger of where Heather is headed.

Pearce, an even more ardent backer of the war than Wilson, told me Election Night it is time to seek a "bipartisan" solution to the conflict which has united much of the nation in opposition. Pearce's new pragmatism, birthed in the Democratic landslide that has the Dems controlling both House and Senate, also extended to his relationship with the new powerhouses in the state's congressional delegation--Senator Bingaman who will replace NM Senator Domenici as Energy Committee chair--and northern NM Rep. Tom Udall who is in line for a subcommittee chairmanship after "riding the pine" since going to Capitol Hill in 98'.

"I have worked well with Jeff and Tom," Pearce told me. "I think our relationship will continue to be productive," said Pearce after seeing the results.

POLL WATCH

What happened with all those polls showing Madrid ahead of Wilson? Brian Sanderoff, whose ABQ Journal poll the Sunday before the election, showed Patsy with a 49-45 lead, made no excuses, saying he would like to have a "perfect record," but no one does. It was only Sanderoff's third miss in 20 years of Journal polling. His last poll did call all the other winners. The movement in the 1st CD race, explained Brian, came late and his poll concluded the Thursday before the election.

He also said Madrid's "communication skills," meaning the infamous brain freeze she had during the debate and which Wilson's campaign made hay of, may have played a pivotal part in converting some of Madrid's soft supporters to Heather's side on Election Day.

That reasoning was repeatedly cited to me. Another angle was the absentee ballots which Wilson's campaign said she carried with about 54%, despite an intensive counter absentee effort headed up by Big Bill's campaign and the Democratic Party.

"They just did not get enough of them in," said Democratic pundit Harry Pavlides, who believes the big Heather wins in rural Torrance county and the East Mountains were expected and were not the reason for Wilson's apparent win.

"If they had put more absentee votes in the bank, the debate issue would not have had as much impact and would have made up for any turnout shortfall among Madrid supporters on Election Day voting." Argued Pavlides.

LOSING GROUND

Some R's were touting the percentages that their down-state ballot candidates lost by Tuesday, but by Wednesday night things were looking uglier. With votes trickling in from around the state, Mary Herrera was getting 54% of the vote, up from 53% in the secretary of state's race. Gary King added to his landslide for attorney general reaching the 57% mark. Dem auditor candidate Hector Balderas was coming in with 55% up a point from E Nite. Dem Treasurer candidate James Lewis was up to 60%. Jim Baca was the sole Dem down-ballot loser, but he trimmed the loss margin from 5 points to four in late returns. Big Bill took it higher too, now getting a huge and record-setting 69%. Dem Senator Bingaman buried his opponent even deeper in the late returns, wracking up an astounding 71% of the vote.

GOP GRUMPINESS

A wide cross section of Republicans are lamenting the party's decision to lay down on the top tier races, saying it threatens to even further marginalize the state's minority party. They have a point. Never have a GOP Governor and U.S. Senate candidate running together suffered such punishment. And the spin on the down-ballot races has now collapsed in the wake of the latest results showing historically normal Dem margins. A further blow was the failure of the GOP to pick up even one House seat. Party leaders were expecting to nab at least one.

BOTTOM LINES

Former GOP NM Governor Dave Cargo remains the king of the quip. When he learned that heavily rural and Republican Catron county was the only one that failed to give a majority to Big Bill, the ex-Guv exclaimed: "The vote was 36 steers to 31 bulls."

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

You can only hold your breath so long. We signed off of KANW 89.1 FM at 3:30 this morning as the vote count in the squeaker of a lifetime sputtered to a halt with word that at lest 4,000 Bernalillo absentee and other out-of-county-ballots will not be tallied until later today, maybe longer. But indications were that embattled ABQ GOP incumbent Heather Wilson was in the drivers seat as she fought to hold off Democratic challenger Patricia all evening and saw the race start to break her way around Midnight when conservative Torrance county, the stepchild that everyone had ignored, came roaring in for Heather. By our count, Wilson was leading by about 1400 votes. Other counts had it a bit less.

All Bernalillo county results here. State results here.

Wilson told supporters she was looking forward to celebrating a morning victory over orange juice, but the lawyers may be the ones celebrating if Madrid gets this thing closer when the final unofficial count is know. Madrid, herself a lawyer, seemed to sense it and went to bed. Absent some major screw-ups--not an unlikely event--Wilson's lead will be difficult for Madrid to overcome, especially since Wilson carried the rest of the absentee ballots by 53% to 47%.

One hope the Heather-Patsy battle doesn't mimic the Iraq war and turn into a no-end-insight battle. But every vote deserves to be counted, and maybe recounted. Patience is not only a virtue in this case, but a necessity.

At the moment,it is the closest congressional race in the nearly 40 year history of the district. In 1980, Bill Richardson almost upset Republican Manuel Lujan. I was on Lujan's staff and recall that one was finally settled with a several thousand vote win for Manuel.

BILL'S SWEEP

There was no close call for Big Bill 26 years later. Last night he rewrote the history books, scoring a stunning 68% win over outmatched R John Dendahl. It appeared the Governor, who easily surpassed the previous Guv win record set by Jack Campbell in 64,' has won 32 of 33 of New Mexico's counties. Catron, as Richardson had predicted, was the sole holdout.

It was surreal as lobbyist Scott Scanland and I watched returns form arch-conservative Chaves, Lea and Otero fall into the Big Bill column. The Guv himself seemed a little blown away, saying it was one of those nights that gives pause. You don't often hear this chief executive say he was "humbled" but he did last night. He should be. With the enormous win come even higher expectations. He will try to deliver on them in the next session of the Legislature and when he explores a run for the 08' Dem Prez nomination.

DEMS RULE

There were few bright spots for the NM GOP last night. They were embarrassed by the 70% win of Senator Jeff Bingaman and were wiped out for all lower ballot races except land commissioner in which Pat Lyons rescued them from a down-ballot shut-out by handily beating Dem Jim Baca. The end came early as Pat landslided Jim in Bernalillo county and even the mighty Democratic north could not rescue the 61 year old ex-ABQ mayor.

The R's dumped hundreds of thousands into the secretary of state and attorney general's contest, but it was all for naught. Dem Mary Herrera was elected secretary of state with 53% and veteran NM politico Gary King landslided R Jim Bibb by 12 points. In fact, R Lorenzo Garcia did better than Bibb, who spent hundreds of thousands. Garcia managed a 47% showing against Dem auditor winner Hector Balderas. James B. Lewis led the down-ballot Dem team garnering about 60% of the votes to take the Treasurer's office.

The R's had hoped for a couple of pick-ups in the State House, but lobbyist Scanland and State Senator James Taylor tracked it until the wee morning hours watching Dem Don Whitaker going down, but seeing that offset by the defeat of R House leader Terry Marquardt. The House stays 42-28 Dem.

BOTTOM LINES.

It was E-Nite all right. Exciting, exhilarating and emotional, just what all of us in the political game live for. Watching history being rewritten in the Guv's race, the high drama of Patsy and Heather, and the big change in Congress to the Dems were the highlights. Everyone involved in the radio broadcast agreed it will be a night we will always remember.

I have said on several occasions that I hoped that whoever won the congressional race would do so by at least 2,000 votes so we would not have a polarizing and damaging fight, like the 2000 Prez race. We are not there as I write you near the 5.a.m. hour. Let's see what happens in the days ahead. Meantime, congratulations to all the candidates who put themselves on the line Tuesday. We sure enjoyed the show.

c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Campaign 2006 went out the same way it came in--with snarls and growls and a final slew of negative TV ads. It may mean a lower turnout than usual, commented veteran NM political reporter and KRQE-TV anchorman Dick Knipfing who has covered them all since 64'.

"It's a turn-off," he summarized in a late Election Eve conversation following an interview we did for his audience. And the first wave of stats may bear him out.

The AP reported 205,000 of us cast our votes early, compared to over 222,000 cast early in the 02' gubernatorial year. It wasn't just the negative campaigning that may have kept some votes on their couches, it was the utter lack of competitive races at the top of the ticket; it's only the hard-fought ABQ congressional race gives us a shot at attracting a 50% turnout or more in Bernalillo county.

There are 1,088,000 registered voters, but if we take out the 200,000 or so "inactive voters," We are left with 889,000 and a 50% vote would give us about 444,000 votes cast, less than 02' and about where we may come in. If you count the inactive, we may be headed for a turnout in the low to mid-40's.

SPECIAL INTERNET COVERAGE

For live Election Night coverage from the ABQ studios of KANW 89.1 FM, click on our NM politics logo on the right beginning at 6:30 p.m. Mountain Time. Thanks to Bruce Donisthorpe and his company, BWD Global, for providing support so we can bring our readers and friends around the state and nation this additional service. And another tip of the hat to public affairs firm DW Turner in ABQ for sponsoring election coverage.

FINAL HEATHER-PATSY ACTION

The final poll in the Heather Wilson-Patricia Madrid congressional battle confirmed the trend of the last several polls; Madrid has a narrow lead as Election Day begins. Survey USA, polling by automatic phone calls, had Patsy at 50% and Heather at 48% with two percent undecided. The ABQ Journal poll released Sunday gave Madrid a four point lead, 49% to 45% with six percent undecided. (Wilson released a campaign poll showing her ahead by two, 48-46.)

The all-negative-all-the-time campaign made dinosaurs out of those who were taught that you should close positively, actually trying to convince people to vote for you. No more. Madrid and Wilson were still attacking each other into the Midnight hour last night.

On my KANW-FM Election Eve special veteran NM journalist called it for Madrid "by a nose."ABQ GOP State Senator John Ryan said he is hanging his hopes for Heather on a superior GOP turnout and called it for her by three points. Lobbyist Scott Scanland said the trend is with Madrid and Dem State Rep. Al Park got real specific saying Madrid would win with 50.8%. Now that's what I call a barn burner. I had one prediction: If Madrid wins, it will be by a somewhat comfortable margin, meaning over 2,000 votes and we avoid a recount and the lawyers. If Heather takes the prize, it will be much narrower and we may not know the outcome on Election Night.

PAT AND JIM FINISH

In the other race still on the table, the fight for state land commissioner, Dem Jim Baca, trailing GOP incumbent Pat Lyons, made a late play for the Spanish North where his hopes now lie to overcome Lyons' expected big Bernalillo county win. Baca's wife, Bobbi, sent out an email to Dems statewide touting her husband's public service record and reminding voters:

"I’m Bobbi Baca, Jim’s wife of 29 years. We have two great kids, Justin and Noelle Baca. Both graduated from Valley High School in Albuquerque, both speak fluent Spanish. "

Lyons hit the mailboxes with a last-day flyer that scored Baca. "Politician Jim Baca talks, but he failed to get results. NM can't depend on Jim Baca."

TV COVERAGE

TV coverage tonight will be mostly crawls of the results across the screen with the network affiliates hitting it hard on their 10 p.m. news and beyond. At 9 p.m. in the ABQ market KASA Fox 2 will have an hour of coverage starting at 9 p.m. All the more reason to tune us in on KANW, as we will have exclusive early precinct results. I don't know how early, but believe they will be the first on the congressional race.

VOTING AND COUNTING

Voting in our Enchanted land will be mostly trouble free, except, of course, for big Bernalillo county, where troubles are par for the course. The best time to vote in the Metro is 10 a.m. or 2 p.m.

As far as counting the votes, the new state law allowed county clerks to start tallying the absentees on Thursday. That should help in Bernalillo where over 44,000 of them have so far been returned. But there will have to be hand tally of ballots that are rejected by the machines. That number may or may not be sizable. If it is a lot and Madrid-Wilson is close, we will have a long night. We will stay on the air as long as the Bernalillo county clerk is counting votes and releasing totals.

NATIONAL ACTION

We will also be on the edge of our chairs watching the national results tonight and see if we have a switch in party control in the U.S. House and/or Senate, which leds me to this reader correction from W. F. Peifer:

"On your Monday blog you state that "If the D's take over one or both houses of Congress tomorrow, don't think voters won't more carefully consider putting a Dem in the White House in 08' which would put them in charge of all three branches." How do you theorize the D's could take over the Supreme Court anytime in the near future?"

Your are correct, W. F. I meant to say the two chambers of Congress and the White House which adds up to three, but not three branches of government, just two.

MY BOTTOM LINES ON CAMPAIGN 06'

I am an optimist so I am thinking we will finish up on the air around 12:30 a.m. Wednesday. I am usually proven wrong. Whatever the hour, I will try to post for you some kind of semi-coherent analysis of what happened by 6 a.m.....

And now there is silence as we await the decision of the voters. Maybe you will like the results of their collective wisdom, maybe not. But acceptance of their decision is fundamental to a free society. Despite the ugliness and sometimes maliciousness of our particular era, the great Democratic experiment marches on unperturbed, and there's nothing negative about that.

See you on the radio.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Dem Whistle-Stop
With the stakes higher than usual for a mid-term election, the D's and the R's put their get-out-the-vote machines into high gear heading into the final hours of Campaign 06.' The R's dismissed an ABQ Journal poll showing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson teetering on the edge of defeat and asserted that their own surveys say the race is a "toss-up" and vowed to fight to the end.

They found some encouragement in the last round of national surveys which showed the Dem advantage perhaps shriveling a bit. And Wilson seemed to take a swipe at the ABQ Journal poll on KRQE-TV last night when she said "one Democrat poll" shows her behind and a "Republican" poll has her ahead. She did not mention what GOP poll she had in mind.

On the ground, the GOP has paid special attention to 65 precincts in the ABQ area that voted for President Bush at rates of at least 65%. Those households have been deluged with mail and calls as the R's work feverishly to energize their base and prevent the D's from taking the ABQ congressional seat for the first time since it was created nearly 40 years ago. Also, insiders say over 90 volunteers have been shipped into ABQ by the national R's to wage the 48 hour ground battle on behalf of Heather.

The Dems were busy too, with Big Bill and most of the other statewide candidates on a whistle-stop train trip along the fabled Rio Grande with stops from Hatch to Bernalillo then over to Las Vegas. Today they go airborne, flying across the state in search of last-minute votes.

DIRTY TRICKS?

Allegations of "dirty tricks," par for the course in the final, nerve-wracking election hours, surfaced as Big Bill and Senator Bingaman claimed the state GOP was calling Hispanic Democrats to tell them--wrongly--that there had been a change in their polling locations for Tuesday. They planned on going to court to have a judge put a stop to the alleged chicanery. But blog photog Mark Bralley, a Republican, said he received a mailer from his party directing him to the wrong polling location. The truth is as slippery as an eel when the clock ticks ever closer to judgement day.

FINAL PITCHES

Back on the beat, Wilson was preparing to meet Senator John McCain at Eclipse Aviation this afternoon to further galvanize GOP supporters who are outnumbered in the district, but who often vote more reliably.

At Dem Patricia Madrid headquarters, one Alligator reported, they were flooded with volunteers Sunday morning anxious to canvass neighborhoods and energized by that Journal poll showing Madrid leading Wilson 49% to 45%, an unprecedented lead for a challenger.

BALDERAS AND BACA

Nerves in the Hector Balderas for state auditor campaign had more reason than most to be frayed. The auditor's race was the only statewide contest the Journal did not survey. Dem State Rep. Balderas was a late entry after Jeff Armijo withdrew under a shadow. But ABQ attorney Brian Colon, traveling with Balderas on the Dem train and heading into Bernalillo, said he "expects a good Election Night for Hector" because of his early TV buy and overall strength of the Dems. R Lorenzo Garcia went up with late TV, but it was only in the $10,000 range.

Jim Baca, perhaps the most imperiled Dem in the state this Election Eve, took out full-page color ads in the state's large newspapers, including a $10,000 pop in the ABQ Journal. His camp says the former land commissioner and ABQ Mayor is now resting his hopes on a dramatic drop in voter turnout on the conservative East side and an uptick in the Hispanic north.

But Lyons' camp, celebrating their seven point lead in the Journal poll, say Baca is going to be disappointed. "Many ranchers and farmers in the north support Pat who is a rancher himself. He will do much better up there than expected," maintained one ardent Lyons backer.

Word also came to your blogger that Lyons has bought El Paso TV to prevent too much of a beating in Democratic dominated Dona Ana county.

MORE TRAILDUST

Bernalillo county R's were working hard to shore up any weakness in their legislative roster, concerned that if a Dem tidal wave develops, it could put some of them on the endangered species list.

Dems were happy over the weather forecast for Tuesday--clear and 71 in the big Metro--and pretty nice elsewhere too. Snow or rain would hurt them them most because Election Day has become known as Democrat day since the advent of early voting and the predilection of many R's to cast their ballots by absentee or at early in-person sites. No weathercaster was predicting a tidal wave, but the political weathermen in the Dem camp were.

In just hours this latest dance of democracy is about to come to a screeching halt as Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico assume the role of the ultimate power brokers. May it ever be so.

READER WRATH

Sunday's blog on the Wilson-Madrid congressional race left "Tony V." an unhappy reader. He blogs in:

"You're assertion that it was her (Wilson's) refusal to assert her independence on Iraq that may do her in and that "she chose fealty to her President and party, not independence" is absurd.

"How do you figure that she showed "fealty to her President and Party" when she has always been strong on defense..? Also in the "her President quote" you reveal your liberal leanings, Joe. Bush is YOUR President. The reason Wilson is potentially going to lose is her weakness on conservative issues, not her weakness of not voting with the liberals on one of "the most pressing issues ever to face our nation."

Tony has point. I should have said the President's "policies." Of course, the President is President to all citizens. I disagree with Tony on his insinuation that Iraq is not one of the most pressing issues of the day. That is denial, but perhaps understandable as emotions run high before an election. Also, if Wilson loses it will be because she was unable to attract Dems and independents because of her Iraq position. Over 80% of R's are supporting her.

WEH'S WAY

With the final voting fast approaching, NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh comes with an analysis that drops the partisanship and emotion and sums up what is happening this cycle.

"With a healthy two-party system, you will have occasional changes--and in a healthy two-party system that's good," said the retired Marine Reserve colonel to the Journal's Jeff Jones.

Weh is recognizing what is actually the norm. Checks and balances are as old as the Republic. One party rule is an anomaly. If the D's take over one or both houses of Congress tomorrow, don't think voters won't more carefully consider putting a Dem in the White House in 08' which would put them in charge of all three branches.

Of course, Weh would say that NM also needs to have checks and balances and that at least one branch of our state government needs to be controlled by the R's to check excesses by the D's. (Treasurer scandal anyone?) It is his most powerful argument for change here, but the R's need unity to achieve it.

BILL'S PLAN

Big Bill cut through 60% in the latest Journal poll like a hot knife through butter. He came in at 65% to R John Dendahl's 24%. We've blogged about the Guv's hope to carry 32 of the 33 counties, and he just may do it. Lincoln, with 57% registered R's, could be a challenge as well as R dominated Catron. In the 64' landslide Dem Jack Campbell carried 30 of the state's then 32 counties and 60.2 percent of the popular vote.

Now you have something to keep you interested when you watch this race unfold Election Night.

NO REALLY LONG LINES?

My election watchers don't foresee disastrous lines at the polls in big Bernalillo county tomorrow. And they have good reasons for that forecast. It appears well over 50% of the vote will have been cast early and this is mid-term election, not a presidential one, dramatically dropping voter turnout.

In addition, unlike at the early voting locations, on Election Day voters will not have to wait while poll workers figure out which legislative district they are in and take several minutes to determine the correct ballot. Tomorrow when you go to your precinct your ballot will be ready to go, cutting down on wait time.

My experts do see line problems late in the day at some fast growing precincts.

"Areas around Cottonwood Mall on the West Side and in North ABQ acres where we have had big growth, could see some lines develop in afternoon drive-time," analyzed politico Steve Cabiedes.

Let's hope the no-huge-lines prediction here is the most accurate one of the election season.

ELECTION EVE AT 5 P.M TODAY

Cabiedes and pollster-pundit Harry Pavlides will be working for you Election Night as we count the votes on KANW 89.1 FM. They have created our early voting reporting system, so we expect to have results from key precincts and analysis of what they mean. It should give us a good idea on where things are before the big vote totals come in later in the evening.

Today at 5 p.m. we are going ot have a lot of fun with Campaign 06' as we sit down at public radio KANW with top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, veteran NM journalist Sherry Robinson, GOP State Senator John Ryan and ABQ Dem State Rep Al Park for analysis and predictions of the major races. We have a full hour uninterrupted by commercials, so join us as we bring this campaign home.

Tomorrow night tune is in for all the excitement of Election Night. We kick it off on 89.1 FM at 6:30 and keep gong until they stop counting the votes. Rep. Park will be back for that along with GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga, Sandy Buffett of the Conservation Voters of NM, politico Lenton Malry and lobbyist Scanland. We'll have Dem Chris Chris Catechis covering the Dems in the field and veteran radio broadcaster Jay Howard Deme with the Republicans.

WE WILL STREAM KANW ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB. COME HERE TOMORROW AND CLICK ON LOGO AND IT WILL TAKE YOU TO THE BROACAST BEGINNING AT 6:30 P.M.

Election Night coverage is made possible by support from PR firm DW Turner--"Strategies and Ideas that Win," New Mexico's Enterprise-rent-a-car, ABQ's Ladera Golf and by ABQ's Bill Campbell Agency, Real Estate.

We thank all of them for their support, as we do you. See you back here on Election Day!

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

There may be no end in sight to the bloody and unpopular Iraq war, but there is an end in sight for Heather Wilson. According to the final ABQ Journal poll, the four term 45 year old ABQ GOP incumbent U.S. Representative is about to be swept away by a wrathful electorate seeking change. It may not even be close.

Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid has a solid 49% to 45% lead over Wilson with 6% undecided. When the undecided are asked which way they are leaning, Madrid hits the magic 50% mark and Wilson moves to 46%. Pollsters do not expect the remaining 4% to vote. That would give us a universe of 96%, meaning Madrid may be positioned for a 52-48 win. A strong GOP turnout and historic patterns Election Day could trim that margin and keep the race tighter. However, at this point, the upset would be a Madrid loss, not a win.

The higher the turnout goes Election Day, the worse for Wilson. The lower, the better for her. More voters will mean more Democrats and more liberal ones. Heather is only getting 12% of the Dems, a dismal number. She scores 27% of Hispanics, up a bit, but not nearly enough.

Journal pollster Sanderoff has a strong record that is the last thing Wilson wants to hear about. In some 20 years, he has had the winning candidate in a major race placing second in his final Journal poll just twice. Heather can only hope she will be the third.

Not that Wilson can give up. There are still votes to be cast. She will bring in Arizona GOP Senator John McCain for a second time Monday to try to rally the GOP base one last time and get back in the race.

But McCain may be the wrong person. Once the epitome of independence from the White House, he is now associated with the don't-get-out-of-Iraq wing of his party. One wonders if that will change Wednesday morning.

WILSON'S WAGER

Ironically for Wilson, it was her refusal to assert her independence on Iraq that may do her in. Throughout her eight years representing the district she has called herself "independent" minded and, on occasion, even voted that way. But on one of the most pressing issues to ever face the American nation, she chose fealty to her President and party, not independence. The Dems absolutely hammered her for it, and it stuck. Big time.

If Wilson is velcro, Madrid is teflon. Iraq and its mounting casualty toll--105 in October alone--have made the charges leveled against Madrid appear like gnats on an elephants behind. The tragic deaths of young soldiers--now seen as a waste by the vast majority of voters-- trumped the many flaws in Madrid's record that Wilson began pointing out way back in July.

The political climate and the Journal poll say Wilson is history. If so, it could be this Rhodes Scholar's inability to understand history that will cause her political career to come to an ignominious end Tuesday night.

LYONS FINALLY ROARS

Pat Lyons
Jim Baca is a step closer to full-time retirement in the wake of the Journal poll showing him lagging incumbent GOP land commissioner Pat Lyons by seven points--48% for Lyons, 41% for Baca and 11% undecided. The Journal poll confirmed our earlier reports of tracking polls that showed Baca beginning to lose Bernalillo county to Lyons.

Is this race a done deal? Not quite, but Baca will need a lot of straight ticket voting from the Dems to get him in this one. He'll also need a strong showing in the Hispanic north. If that happens and GOP turnout also dips, Baca could still keep us up late. It is asking a lot and Lyons, who finally hit with powerful negative TV ads that Baca did not answer, may become the first Republican down-ballot officeholder to win re-election since we adopted four year terms back in 1990. But stay tuned to KANW 89.1 FM Election Night as we count the votes closely in this one.

All the other statewide races, according to the poll, appear safe for the Democrats. The secretary of state race is closest, with the R behind by six points, but projected voter turnout patterns show it finishing with a Dem flourish.

AROUND THE NET

Money poured into the attorney generals race in a big way in October. You can check that out and the highlights from the cash reports of the other statewide candidates here.

Which U.S. House candidate in the entire USA has aired more TV spots than any other. It may not surprise you to hear that it was Heather Wilson. New Mexicans have been diving under their couches to escape the ad onslaught from her and Madrid. Tuesday the ads go away and you get your life back, or at least your TV.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author