We broke the news this week that Downs at ABQ owner Paul Blanchard, a major friend of Big Bill, would be throwing the Guv a high dollar fundraiser Sept. 21st. It was an eyebrow raiser for the New Mexican's Steve Terrell who wondered about that application Blanchard has pending to move the racetrack from the fairgrounds and over to Moriarty. Would the fundraiser influence that state decision?

The Blanchard fund raiser comes on the heels of Bill taking hits over campaign contributions his Prez campaign received from Santa Fe developer Gerald Peters who is involved in a big transportation department construction deal pending with the state. The Guv ordered that job rebid.

Pay to play allegations have been the soft underbelly of the current Santa Fe administration, but it has not hurt the Guv's public standing. Why not? Because, the experts say, the public believes that's the way the system works for all politicians.

THE BILL DEAL

On the Prez trail, the Guv is getting tougher on his opponents as we hit the four month mark before the Iowa January caucuses. They are turning into something of a do or die for the New Mexican. He hovers at around 10 to 12% in the polls there and awaits a mistake from the front runners. His other options are Veep, secretary of state in a Dem administration as well as a NM US Senate run. If he runs smooth from here on out, perhaps his early mistakes will be forgotten. If Richardson isn't having the time of his life dealing with all these options, he needs fun therapy.

THE PETE BEAT

He's back on the radar of the national pundits after being absent for a while. The re-election prospects of NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici are analyzed in the National Journal where Charlie Cook says "New Mexico looks tougher" for Republicans as they fight to avoid heavy Senate losses next year.

Will legal or political problems trip up Alaska GOP Sen. Ted Stevens or New Mexico GOP Sen. Pete Domenici, who are 84 and 75 years old, respectively? Stevens is under scrutiny by the FBI as part of an investigation into influence buying in the state. For Domenici, questions have been raised about the propriety of a phone call from him to a U.S. attorney over the status of an investigation of Democratic political figures, and whether Domenici had anything to do with that U.S. attorney being subsequently sacked. New Mexico looks tougher for Republicans and now that they are in the minority in the Senate, Domenici doesn't have the clout he wielded just a year ago.

THE CAMPAIGN IN COLOR
Martinez
Photog Mark Bralley is out on the city campaign trail. Here's a pic he shot of Katherine Martinez, the political newcomer and government affairs rep for the Home Builders Association of Central NM who is trying to unseat incumbent district 2 councilor Debbie O'Malley. Martinez is the underdog but she has raised enough money to dot the North Valley district with her yellow campaign signs. Debbie has opted for public financing and also has signs up and will hit the mailboxes heavy.

HARRIS RECALL

The city ethics board audit of the campaign finances of District 9 ABQ City Councilor Don Harris has been released and despite being cited for 150 campaign violations, Harris calls the findings "messy, but not dirty." The ethics panel will now decide at a September 24 hearing what punishment, if any, it should mete out. Harris faces a recall election October 2.

Have a good weekend, and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

A mobile billboard attack launched Wednesday by the NM Republican Party against ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez over immigration policy had the Alligators jumping and advancing the speculation. Most say the trailer-mounted moving attack ad had more to do with electioneering than with a too soft policy from Marty on undocumented workers.

"If Senator Domenici continues to be weakened or vacates his seat, Chavez could be a Democratic contender. The hammering on immigration appeals most to Anglo Republicans, a bloc that Domenici must hold and a group that Chavez has proved popular with. Also, Brad Winter, (a Republican city councilor), has been under fire for not being tough enough on immigration enforcement. This muddies the water in Winter's race with Paulette de'Pascal," offered two Gators whose statements I meshed together.

Whatever Machiavellian designs were behind the strident attack on wheels, it did not fare well with the Hispano Chamber of Commerce which immediately denounced the ad. State Dem Party Chair Brian Colón also let loose. “It is disappointing that the Republican Party has...resorted to the politics of hatred and division as an attempt to distract the people of New Mexico from the failures of the Bush administration." He blasted.

R's of a more moderate bent could not have been happy with their party's blast before the TV cameras, led by party chairman Allen Weh and bolstered by the presence of Hispanic Bernalillo County GOP Chair Fernando C de Baca. In a culturally diverse state like ours, the immigration issue has had the most political impact along the border, but much less elsewhere. It was barely mentioned in last year's heated campaign between ABQ GOP Rep. Heather Wilson and Dem Patsy Madrid.

Also, the GOP suffered mightily with Hispanics when it was revealed during the US attorney scandal how its operatives (lawyers Mickey Barnett and Pat Rogers) were putting heat on NM GOP US Attorney Iglesias to bring voter fraud cases in the state. Iglesias, eventually ousted, refused, saying the cases were weak. Critics charged the voter fraud cases were a ploy by the R's to inhibit minorities from voting.

MORE EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

Chavez has previously told me he is not interested in the Senate seat as long as Pete is in it. In fact, he has taken heat from fellow Dems for saying he supports Pete. But that was before the Senator hit a low 52 percent approval and before Marty's chances for the 2010 Dem Guv nomination became dimmer. A run at Domenici , once seen as impossible, is now at least plausible. A run if the seat becomes open could be said to be likely.

By choosing a hot button wedge issue the R's may get their base rallied against Chavez, but it will come at a price of shrinking their appeal with the broader electorate. As one Alligator put it: "If the Republicans really want to bloody Marty's nose, they ought to show why he's a bad Democrat, not a bad Republican."

ELECTION EMOTION

It's emotional up in city council district 9 where Councilor Don Harris faces a recall election October 2. We get this response to yesterday's blog on Harris's recent campaign flyer from the anti-Harris group, "New Mexicans for Democracy."

"... Harris does not mention his abysmal record, rather he attacks the over 1500 people that signed the petition to have the recall placed on the ballot. In addition, Mr. Harris claims that he was elected by 66% of the voters. On November 15, 2005 there were 28, 925 registered voters that were eligible to vote. Mr. Harris received 245o of those eligible votes. Thus, Mr. Harris received the whopping mandate of 8.5% of the eligible vote. So how does 8.5% turn into 66%?...It is no wonder Mr. Harris is facing campaign violation fines, he always fudges the numbers."

For the record, 3,686 total votes were cast in the run-off election Harris won over Councilor Tina Cummins. She received 1,032 votes or 33.53%. Harris won 2,450 votes or 66.47%.

This recall election in the NE and the Far SE Heights is an old fashioned door-to-door street fight, and it's no holds barred.

OVER IN SIX...

The four way duel for the district six council seat in the SE Heights is keeping the bleachers filled. Last night the contenders were all behind their computers taking part in an online chat. Judging by the transcript, any one of these hopefuls would be a sharp-eyed councilor.

ELECTION '07 ON TV

Still don't know whose running for what in the city election? Tonight at 6 p.m. you can catch most of the council candidates if you live in ABQ and have cable TV. Channel 27 will air a 90 minute forum with the contenders form districts 2, 4 and 8. It starts at 6 p.m. On September 27th, the four councilor hopefuls from district six will be presented, also at 6 p.m. If you want to be there in person tonight call 884-8441.

THE LOW LIST BLUES

It's another of those lists, and you are not going to hear Big Bill brag about it in Iowa, or incumbent legislators campaign on it here next year.

New Mexico ranks 50th in net worth of households, asset poverty, and households with zero net worth. The state is 49th in households with non-interest-bearing accounts and 41st in households with interest-bearing accounts...New Mexicans are the least likely in the nation to receive insurance through their employer (51st in employer-sponsored insurance). The state also falls short in insuring low-income residents, the study finds, ranking 50th in low-income parents without health insurance and 44th in uninsured low-income children.

Answers to this, anyone?

SANTA FE CRIME WAVE UPDATE

It's been quiet on the Santa Fe crime wave front recently, but it hasn't gone away. Now the rich are feeling the bite as burglars zero in on expensive homes. That word from Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano who has previously offered his department's help to the Santa Fe police to department in an effort to get a handle on city crime. Now it looks as if Solano, an early announcer for the 2010 Dem Light Guv nomination, has his own hands full with this political hot potato. I wonder what Geno Zamora thinks about that? Just asking...

THE BOTTOM LINES

I fouled up a paragraph on the city election yesterday, getting the wrong date for any necessary run-off elections,. Run-offs would take place November 20th..ABQ GOP NE Heights State Rep. Larry Larranaga will be back with us on KANW 89.1 FM this election night. He's called quite a few with us over the years and we look forward to working with him again. Our Election Night coverage kicks off at 6:30 p.m. October 2nd...

Thanks for your continued support of this site. Send your latest news from the mail link the top of the page and keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

ABQ City Councilor Don Harris has begun what city hall insiders believe is an uphill campaign to avoid becoming the first councilor to ever be kicked out of his seat via a recall election. The attorney and freshman lawmaker has hit the mailboxes with a piece exhorting voters in his far NE Heights district to reject the recall, and he is using ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez as an issue.

"All deserve to be served, not just the few. And the voters should choose our Councilor, not the mayor, " rips Harris.

If voters oust Harris, Mayor Marty gets to choose a replacement to fill out his term which expires in 2009. Harris is not a reliable Chavez vote and has become part of the council's Gang of 6 that has formed on occasion to override mayoral vetoes.

Meantime, the numbers are tough for Harris. The city clerk's office told me Tuesday:

"1,844 voters in City Council district 9 must vote in the recall election on October 2, in order for the office to become vacant. In addition, a majority of those voting must vote in favor of the recall in order for the office to be come vacant. As an example, if 1842 voters vote for the recall and only one voter votes against the recall, the recall will fail because 1844 voters did not vote."

That is not a very high bar to cross because Harris was elected over incumbent Tina Cummins in 2005 during a low turnout run-off election and those are the numbers used for the recall. Turnout for this October's election could easily reach four or five thousand voters in the Harris district so getting enough turnout is not going to be an issue for recall supporters. Harris must campaign as if he is running for re-election. The city ethics board this month considers complaints against him. Its findings could influence the recall.

The Four Hills Alligators say Harris has alienated important neighborhood groups and remain pessimistic about his survival chances. In his mail piece Harris terms the upcoming balloting "a hateful recall election" and says voters chose him with 66% of the vote and again warns that if he loses Chavez will pick someone to fill out the remainder of his term, not voters.

This one will be a featured race in our wall-to-wall coverage of City Election '07 when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM at 6:30 p.m. October 2 .

MORE FRONTLINE ACTION

Another hot race is that four way duel in the city's SE Heights where Rey Garduño was recently rattled when he failed to mention a long-ago shoplifting incident on his ABQ Journal questionnaire. Observers in the liberal district still think Garduño is the frontrunner, but wonder if there now could be a run-off election. If no candidate gets 40% October 2, a run-off featuring the top two finishers would be held November 2oth.

Those seeking to slow Garduño will get a chance to make some news tonight when they have a live, on-line Q and A with the ABQ Journal. Blair Kaufman, Joanie Griffin and Kevin Wilson will join Garduño in the chatroom at 7:30 tonight.

Rey's questionnaire woes aren't quite over yet. The ABQ Tribune also asked the candidates about past incidents, and Garduño will also take a hit there for not reporting the shoplifting incident.

BLISSFUL DISTRICT?

Is everyone living in a state of bliss in the largely affluent NE Heights city council district 8? We ask because for the second time in a row there is no contested race. Realtor Trudy Jones is the automatic winner, replacing Republican Jim Loy who also ran unopposed in 2005. Not much will change with this one. Like Loy, Trudy is a reliable Mayor Marty supporter.

Early in-person voting starts at four locations in the city today. They are listed in the link in the above story.

RIO RANCHO BUZZ

We didn't get a chance to post the official announcement that Dem State Rep. Tom Swisstack will seek to become the mayor of Rio Rancho for the second time, so here it is. We broke that story a couple of weeks ago when Tom told us he will give up his seat in the Legislature if he gets elected leader of the City of Vision. His chances look pretty good for the March election. No other big name has emerged to run, not yet anyway.

Republicans need to get moving and recruit a strong candidate for Swisstack's Roundhouse seat. If he leaves it, the numbers crunchers say it has an excellent chance of going R.

WILSON'S WANDERINGS

ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson argues that her recent travel outside of the ABQ based district is not unusual and that we shouldn't read it as a sign that she has her eye on the US Senate seat held by fellow R Pete Domenici if it should become available. Not unusual? Well, we'll give her the benefit on that. But what is definitely unusual is that her out-of-district visits have been accompanied by news article in the Las Cruces Sun-News, The Farmington Daily Times and the Clovis News-Journal and the Los Alamos Monitor. If Heather wants to quash the speculation about a possible Senate bid, why not rule out a run, instead of debating her travel schedule? Yeah, we love this game...

BEER AND CHAMPAGNE

On Tuesday we told you about that cheap seats ABQ September 21 fundraiser Big Bill is having for his Prez campaign. You get in for a measly 25 bucks. But don't worry about the Guv going wanting. We're told that on the very same night the Joe Six Pack crowd gets to greet the Guv, he is also scheduled for backslapping with the Dom Pèrignon sippers at high-dollar fundraiser at the home of his old friend and Downs at ABQ owner Paul Blanchard. Yes, that's the same Paul Blanchard who is asking the state to let him move his racetrack out to Moriarty.

This is the home of New Mexico politics, framing the races and breaking the big stories. Help keep the politics coming. Send your news, comments and political gossip to the mail link at the top for the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Even Saint Pete is praying now. In a gloomy conference call with NM radio reporters Monday the state's senior senator all but predicted significant layoffs at Los Alamos and Sandia Labs saying, "We are looking at one of the most impossible situations that I have ever seen." He described the House and Senate as being "desperately far apart" in the battle over funding for the nuclear installations. "We are just going to have to hunker down, fight our best and see how it works out," reported a clearly exasperated Domenici.

The worst case scenario is now a $350 million hit to Los Alamos and 2,500 lay offs. For Sandia, doomsday would mean a $220 million budget slash resulting in 900 jobs lost. My Alligators on Capitol Hill say that Domenici should be able to restore some of that money but not all of it: "The House is dug in. The Senate energy bill restores the labs' budget under the deal Domenici cut there, but when the House and Senate conference committee meets, we expect major cuts. How much? Not the $570 million the House wants, but something significant."

That's better than the doomsday scenario of 3,400 layoffs that lab officials are warning their workforces about, but it would still mean the loss of hundreds of jobs, a prospect Pete, the guardian angel of the labs, seemed to be preparing the state for on Monday. This view contrasts with that of Democratic northern NM US Rep. Tom Udall who said he expects the House-Senate conference committee to fully fund the "mission of the lab" and there will be no jobs lost. But if Udall has cut a deal with someone, so far he's keeping it to himself.

There will be several major twists in turns in the complicated labs budget story in the weeks ahead. The experts tell me we won't know for sure how many jobs will be lost until near the holidays, so If you work at Los Alamos or Sandia you might want to make an early visit to Santa Claus and pray to Saint Pete.

POLL CASH

The appetite for political money is ravenous, and is reflected in an e-mail from the campaign of Light Guv Diane Denish. Just hours after Monday's release of the ABQ Journal poll showing her beating ABQ Mayor Marty Marty Chavez in a 2010 Dem primary by 20 points (50-30-20), the campaign was taking advantage and pitching the numbers for campaign cash.

...We cannot take anything for granted, which is why Diane is working hard every day...The results of her efforts are reflected in this poll...Working with Governor Richardson, Diane is committed to continuing her efforts to move New Mexico forward...(She) will not rest just because of strong poll numbers, which is why we continue to need your help. You can show your support..by going to www.dianedenish.com...

And the primary election is still 33 months away.

BILL ON THE CHEAP

The king of the New Mexico fund-raisers, Big Bill, actually has one scheduled where you don't have to cash in your CD's to get inside. It's in ABQ September 21 and just 25 bucks a head, so this one is where job seekers from the soon-to-close ABQ Tribune can hit the Guv up for a PR job, or state employees can do some kissing up so they are not prematurely retired. The cheap seats fundraiser is at the home of Joe and Kathy Duffy. More info at (505) 828-2455

THE PEARCE POSITION

Don't look for conservative southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce to break with the White House on the Iraq war as Election '08 approaches. He writes in an op-ed piece:

Many have argued for Congress to push for a date certain for withdrawal. Putting Congress in charge of deciding troop deployments is no way to run a war.

Pearce advisers feared the unpopular war could cost him votes in the '04 cycle, but his down-the-line-support did him no damage in the conservative region. He took a 60% victory. Pearce's conservative consistency has given him a strong image in the district.

If only Senator Domenici were so lucky. He is getting pounded again by anti-war spots in the big ABQ media market. I saw this one on KOB-TV as I wrote to you Monday night. Domenici said in July he wanted the troops to start to get out of Iraq next year but, like Pearce, refuses to back a timetable, leaving the door open for war opponents to walk through. He said Monday he is "encouraged" by the Petraeus report. Will he take a firmer position on ending the no-end-in-sight war as the 2008 election draws near? Keep your dial tuned to this station.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Send your news and comments from the email link at the top of the page. Interested in advertising here? Drop me a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Political junkies in dire need of an approval ratings fix on GOP US Senator Pete Domenici and ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson, as well as how they are stacking up against potential '08 opponents, are going to suffer withdrawal symptoms a while longer. The first NM based public poll of the 2008 cycle is out, but it time travels to the year 2010 and the Democratic race for governor. It's like serving the dessert when we need red meat. One can only hope that the main course is in the oven, and will be served up before the junkies storm the kitchen. Meantime, we dine on the thin gruel of the Survey USA which at least tells us Pete is approved by 52%. There are no public Heather numbers, despite her near loss last year and the national headlines made by the US attorney scandal.

The early ABQ Journal poll, taken September 4 thru 6, is just fine with Light Guv Diane Denish who, the survey says, has opened up a 20 point lead over potential 2010 Dem primary challenger and ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. It's Denish 50%, Chavez 30% and 20% undecided. You may question how useful a poll is nearly three years before the actual voting, but one thing is for sure--Di is not going to fire her pollsters. They told her in January her she had an 18 point lead over Marty. That calls into question speculation that Marty's problems with Di are due to recent city controversies.

The state's number two has raised well north of a million bucks for her far-in-the-future effort and any poll that puts her comfortably ahead is not going to hurt when it comes to raising more, but the political intelligentsia is not about to cement the deal on a race that faces so many variables. At least that's the hope of the Chavez camp where the spin is that the numbers are no surprise since he has only formed an "exploratory committee" and not officially announced his candidacy. They add that Denish is the recipient of uncritical press coverage, unlike His Honor who wracks up the negatives when the garbage isn't picked up on time.

CRYSTAL BALL GAZING

Both candidates are well-known so the poll, taken among 407 registered Dems with a margin of error of + or -5%, shows only 20% of them undecided in a head-to-head contest. The poll indicates Chavez's main problems remain attracting more Hispanics and overcoming a glass ceiling seemingly imposed on him by ABQ area Dems who have supported him for mayor but recoil at the prospect of him becoming governor. Denish has to continue to form a deeper bond with Dems. How firm is that 20 point lead when it is challenged with negative attacks?

But will it be a Denish-Chavez match-up? What would a strong third or fourth entrant do to the polling numbers? That's just one of many questions unresolved at this early date. Another biggie is whether Denish will become Governor before '10 as Big Bill looks to advance himself nationally.

It's a no brainier that the political landscape is going to change over the next several years. Depending on the nature of that change, Denish could become even stronger or Chavez could get positioned. For Diane, the best advice is probably to not become giddily overconfident; for Marty it's not to become dangerously depressed.

ON THE TRAIL

In that effort to firm up Dem support, Denish plans on putting money where her mouth is. She is circulating a fund-raising letter asking for contributions to her political action committee that she says will "allow me to provide Democratic candidates with the support they need to win."

The PAC is called Progress, Vision and Commitment and would presumably target its support at Dem legislative candidates as well as the federal races.

The Light Guv is also firming up a friendship with a Governor. No, not Big Bill, but the Governor of Washington state, Christine Gregoire. She writes in an invite letter:

"...Governor Gregoire’s 2004 election was a very close race. Winning by only 129 votes after two vote recounts, Governor Gregoire was the victor in America’s closest gubernatorial election. In 2008,...we anticipate another tight race...I hope you will consider joining me for lunch on September 19th in Albuquerque in support of the Governor’s re-election. The lunch will be held at The Artichoke Café..."

Mayor Marty has also scheduled a fund-raiser--with boxer Holy Holm. With a 20 point deficit to overcome, he could use some fight tips from a pro.

BILL'S WORLD

That Journal poll shows most state Dems remain highly supportive of the Guv and that despite his various campaign gaffes, he wins solid performance ratings from the hometown D's. One of his biggest goofs dealt with gays, and he's trying to make up for it.

The liberal blog Daily Kos recently called the NM leader a "buffoon" because of his campaign miscues, but what other major Democratic candidate other than Big Bill agrees with the Kos crowd on the Iraq war? None. His recent op-ed piece in the Washington Post did not smack of buffoonery to those who want the no-end-in-sight-war to end.

The Guv took part last night in the Miami Dem Prez forum sponsored by Univision, the Spanish language TV network. Did he pander or make a good point when he said:

"I have always supported Univision throughout my career. But I am disappointed today that 43 million Latinos cannot hear one of their own speak Spanish."

As the first major Hispanic candidate to seek the Dem Prez nod, the Guv was given a warm welcome. Seen working the spin room for him was NM Secretary of Education Veronica Garcia. Also in spin alley was former NM Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid. She wasn't there for Bill, but for her old friend John Edwards. Before the event Patsy said she should brush up on her Spanish by hanging out with her mom and dad who speak it "much better" than she does. The Madrids hail from Dona Ana county.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Roswell State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair is still dealing with a confrontation with a constituent at the Roundhouse this past session. He's headed to court for a "settlement conference" with the offended party...And how about DinerCam? That's what this segment featuring Big Bill on the New Hampshire campaign trail is titled...Remember that controversy last year when US Rep Heather Wilson complained about her position in the NM State Fair parade? Well, this year she was apparently happy with her slot. She was spotted waving to the Saturday morning parade crowd from a lowrider. Does that make her a Valley girl?...

Have news? Comments? Send them in from the email link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author