Sanderoff
The political earthquake set off by Tuesday's Survey USA poll showing NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici's approval rating plummeting to 41% continued to reverberate at week's end. The assertion from Pete's camp that the Sept. 14-16 automatic phone poll was all malarkey was getting little support from the political pros who believe the senator is not as low as 41%, but that the poll has accurately captured his downward trajectory that began with the US Attorney scandal earlier his year.

Veteran ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff was one of those weighing in. "I’ve got quibbles with their methodology, but Survey USA has a pretty good track record." He said.

He also told the New Mexican it might be questioned whether Domenici's approval rating is quite as low as 41 percent.

“When you see a significant drop like that in one month, it makes you think twice." But he said Survey USA uses the same method every month, so even if 41 percent isn’t the correct number, it shows a trend that should concern Domenici."

DEEP INSIDER INFO

Sanderoff's analysis dovetails with that of longtime Democratic pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides who made his comments on our blog Wednesday. He said he felt Pete was probably above 41% but below the critical number of 50%. Both he and Sanderoff agree that the war in Iraq and TV spots attacking Pete's handing of it are the main source of his recent spate of poor polling.

Pete's alter ego and chief of staff, Steve Bell, told the ABQ Journal he felt the poll was so out of touch that he'd "fire the pollster who...gave it to me." He said Domenici's own polling shows him at least 20 points above where Survey USA has him, but Steve was not releasing those numbers, leaving Survey USA as the lone public poll. That left the Alligators jawing that Pete and Steve need to be more worried about getting themselves fired by the voters, rather than any pollster losing his job.

Of special interest, for the first time in memory the Journal actually ran the results of the Survey USA. That the state's largest newspaper acknowledged the poll and did an accompanying article on Pete's re-election prospects only added to the poll's credibility. It was a sure signal that the earth has shifted and that 2008 is going to be a wild year. However, the question remains: When will the ABQ Journal, or another independent group, do a comprehensive poll on the senate race as well as the ABQ congressional contest?

WHAT ABOUT WIVIOTT?
Don Wiviott
Supporters of Dem US Senate candidate Don Wiviott email in that they think their guy is being given short shrift as the speculation intensifies over who will be the Dem nominee to take on Pete. Wiviott has put up $400,000 of his own money to start his run. His campaign has bought an ad here and the candidate has been pounding the pavement seeking support. Still, insider Dems look hopefully at Big Bill or ABQ Mayor Marty to show an interest in running. That gave rise to these comments from the Wiviott wing.

"He's got a lot more "weight" than the Alligators give him credit for. He's lined up a crack team of experienced New Mexico campaign staff. I think people are going to be surprised--and Democrats very pleased--to see how well Don's going to do. That's my $.02 from the sidelines, but seriously, give the guy a close look: he's smart, articulate, motivated, has vision."

As a political newcomer, Wiviott, a Santa Fe developer, has a long climb to gain the credibility he needs to excite Dems about his candidacy. But if no one better known steps forward, he will likely be the nominee, and that's something to think about.

MAILBOX MANIA

All kinds of pieces are hitting the mailboxes in the final days of ABQ Election '07. Here's one (scroll down) we found interesting. It's from city council District 6 candidate Rey Garduño and goes after the Hispanic vote in the SE Heights. Garduño would be the first Hispanic to represent the district since its formation back in '74.

O'MALLEY VS. MARTINEZ

Debbie O'Malley has unleashed a couple of last minute pieces against challenger Katherine Martinez in the District 2 council race in ABQ's North Valley. They score Martinez for her ties to the ABQ development community and also for never having voted in NM. Martinez moved here from D.C. five years ago.

Why is Council Prez O'Malley unloading when it appears she has an easy win ahead of her? Insiders report Mayor Chavez's open support of Martinez and his recent criticisms of O'Malley are the major reason. "This shows Debbie is not going to put up with his crap" is how one of her operatives bluntly phrased it.

Martinez campaign spokesman Brian Miller responded angrily to the O'Malley hits.

"O'Malley's getting scared because Katherine has worked much harder and is going to win. It's desperate and will backfire. Katherine's never run from the fact that she's not from here; she's embraced it and looks at it as a positive life experience. O'Malley using taxpayer funds to wage a sleazy negative campaign is the issue here." Miller blasted.

O'Malley is using the new publicly financed campaign system. Martinez is privately financed. Martinez has hit O'Malley for being too critical of Mayor Chavez, as depicted in the cartoon posted here.

WINTER'S WORLD

Councilor Brad Winter may be beating a dead horse, but he continues to beat away on challenger Paulette de'Pascal in council District 4 in the final hours. Incumbent Republican Winter hit Paulette with a mail piece Thursday calling into question her integrity. The mailer, among other things, sites her incomplete answers about her educational background on her ABQ Journal questionnaire. Winter also came with a piece that touts his record on enforcing immigration laws.

RECALL WRANGLING

Councilor Don Harris, facing the prospect of becoming the first ABQ elected official to ever be recalled from office, was on TV Thursday night saying his constituents have been "violated."

Fighting to save his job and finish out the four year term he was elected to in '05, Harris and his supporters are going to ask the sheriff to look into allegations that a handful of signatures were forged on the petitions that make possible the recall. City Clerk Randy Autio has also been called on to investigate. He says the forgery allegations will not interfere with Tuesday's recall.

TAXING NEWS

Big Bill is putting out a potential fire very early. From his press office Thursday night:

"Governor Bill Richardson said today that he will not support the idea of a gross receipts tax increase to pay for operations of the Railrunner. The idea was pitched by Transportation Secretary Rhonda Faught as one way to pay for future operations of the Railrunner."

With the state piling up annual cash surpluses in the hundreds of millions of dollars, how the folks in Santa Fe could even consider asking you to open up your wallet borders on the bizarre. Big Bill needs to keep his fire extinguisher handy. By the way, didn't Rhonda check with Bill before talking up a tax hike? We're just asking...

Join me Monday at 5 p.m. for the KANW 89.1 FM Election Eve special. My guest experts will include ABQ Tribune reporter Erik Siemers and Terry Brunner, state director for Senator Jeff Bingaman.

Thanks to New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction for helping to make possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Now just hours before the climax of ABQ Election '07 when voters decide four city council seats and whether to recall District Nine Councilor Don Harris. The conventional wisdom to this point has been that incumbents Brad Winter and Debbie O'Malley will earn re-election nods and that Democrat Rey Garduño will take a victory in District 6, although the potential for a run-off in that four way contest remains.

The modest change in the political outlook is in the recall of Harris in the far Heights in District 9. A month ago the conventional thinking had Harris dead and buried, but that was before Harris began fighting by sending thousands of DVD's into the district, a number of mailers and vigorously contesting ethics charges.

"This will be a low turnout re-election. They are the hardest to predict. I don't know if the recall effort has the needed spark,. There has never been one in city history. The higher the turnout the better for Harris. A lower turnout will mean those fired up to vote against him would have a bigger impact,"analyzed one our Alligators who now says he is on the fence on whether Don is doomed.

Others are emphatic that the recall will succeed based on the low threshold of voters needed. Only 1,844 voters need to vote on the issue, with a simple majority required to end Harris's council career.

HOT ON THE TRAIL

Last night, Harris, hitting it hard in the final days, called a news conference to allege that a handful of some of the signatures that were gathered to place the recall on the District 9 ballot were forged, casting doubt on the authenticity of the election. The group proposing the recall retorted that this is a "wild allegation by Mr. Harris to divert attention from the September 24th Ethics Board hearing and inquiry into his campaign finance reports and the finding of “guilty” on five of the six charges." But a spokeswoman told KOB-TV the group and Harris will meet with the city clerk to go over the signatures.

We'll have this one on our watch list when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM at 6:30 p.m. for out exclusive continuous Election Night Coverage and Monday at 5 p.m. for our Election Eve special.

AT THE RACES

DISTRICT 2--Council Prez Debbie O'Malley appears to be on her way to a another four years.

"The League of Conservation voters just mailed a hit piece against Katherine Martinez, and her campaign seems to be fizzling here in the close," reports one of our Alligators in the North Valley district.

One of Martinez's latest mail pieces is here. (Patience. It's a big file.)

O'Malley commands the respect of her peers and is currently devoting full-time to the council. Katherine is a political newcomer, but has made a good impression and worked hard going door-to-door in the North Valley district.

DISTRICT 4-Brad Winter will likely close the deal and win a third four year term.

"Paulette de'Pascal's credibility has been damaged by both Winter and in the free media," said one of our district watchers. An Alligator sympathetic towards Winter chimed in: "Brad should win this one big. Remember, four years ago he had the Republican machine against him. That's not the case this time." He said.

Republican Winter won by five percent in 2003 when the conservative wing of the NM GOP went after him. Winter is now more associated with that wing. Brad is a lifelong community leader and is well-liked throughout his district. Paulette has had a tough campaign, but she has won kudos for her resilience and concern for ABQ.

A HEATED RACE
Rey Garduño
DISTRICT 6--The only thing that slowed down Democrat Rey Garduño was his failure to reveal a misdemeanor shoplifting conviction from the 1980's on his ABQ Journal questionnaire, but with just days left it appears the retired UNM marketing director is positioned to take first place in this liberal SE Heights district. Can ad agency owner Joanie Griffin, hobby store owner Kevin Wilson and centrist Democrat Blair Kaufman keep Garduño below 40% and force a November 20 run-off election between the top two contenders?

Garduño was hit over the shoplifting incident in a telephone "push-poll" Tuesday. His campaign said it was anonymous and therefore a violation of city ethics rules. They said it came from Joanie Griffin's campaign and they demanded she apologize. Griffin unloaded on Garduño in a late night phone call of her own saying Garduño is the one who should "be apologizing for lying about his record."

She said the poll was done by a polling firm and that there was a disclaimer letting voters know it had come from her campaign and did not violate ethics rules. She added fuel to the fire by saying her campaign has learned that Garduno's son and campaign manager, Tomas Garduño, also has a shoplifting conviction from the late 1990's.

Tomas Garduño said he was cited for misdemeanor shoplifting when he was a teenager and it was a "teenaged mistake." He questioned "what any of this" has to do with the city council race.

"Joanie Griffin is desperate and wants to run on mud, not issues. What about stopping sprawl and protecting our water?"

He said he expects supporters of the campaign to file ethics charges against Griffin.

Griffin says Tomas Garduño's shoplifting incident is relevant because Tomas manages a publicly financed campaign.

BOTTOM LINING THIS ONE

Rey Garduño, 64, has said the shoplifting conviction resulted when he forgetfully, not intentionally, walked out of a Sears store with other merchandise he had purchased. But he failed to disclose the incident on his ABQ Journal questionnaire, giving Griffin's campaign ammo. He has aplogized for the omission.

The endorsement of Garduño by outgoing Councilor Martin Heinrich and Light Guv Diane Denish has helped Garduño move forward. If he is not at 40%, he is close, and if he doesn't make it Tuesday he will remain the favorite in a runoff.

Rey, Joanie, Kevin and Blair are all qualified for the council, each having long involvement in community affairs.

FLYING SOLO

DISTRICT 8--Realtor Trudy Jones is unopposed in this NE Heights district. I have talked with her on your behalf. She is well-informed and sees service on the council as a civic duty, not a political opportunity. She will bring traditional conservative GOP representation to this district, providing needed balance on the nine member body.

CAN WE BOND?

There is a somewhat complicated bond issue on the city ballot that would set aside $10 million for affordable housing in the city. After reading a Journal editorial and an opinion piece by Lieutenant Governor Denish, the proposal makes sense, although the concern of the ABQ Chamber of Commerce is duly noted. I will be curious to see how Bond #10 fares with the voters Tuesday night.

On the other hand, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez has it right when he urges voters to reject a pay raise for the city council and another proposition that would make it harder to force recall elections of councilors. The Mayor notes that the pay raise has been defeated at least 10 times and that no city official has ever been recalled. He says a vote against both these measures will keep our city government closer to the people--where it belongs.

OUR SPONSORS

Thanks to New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction for helping to make possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

And thanks for making us the home of New Mexico politics. Email us from here and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Sen. Domenici
The New Mexican political community gasped for breath Tuesday night as it was taken away from them by the shell shocker contained in the latest Survey USA poll. The approval rating of NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici has plunged to an historic low of 41%. Say what? You read it right. 41%. Now that you've caught your breath, let's talk.

In his nearly 35 years in the Senate, Domenici has never registered this low in any public opinion poll. His operatives dismiss the survey's accuracy because it is conducted by automatic phone calling. Last night Domenici's office told KOB-TV their poll "verges on the ludicrous" but Pete is not releasing his own polling, and the down trend is unmistakable and well-established.

Domenici began plummeting in March when he hit 57% approval as his involvement with the US attorney scandal was revealed. The 41% comes on the heels of a big anti-Domenici, anti-Iraq war TV ad buy that hit the state's airwaves in August.

It was Domenici "reversal" on the conduct of the no-end-in-sight war that his advisers believed would start resuscitating his poll numbers. But Domenici's July announcement that he was parting ways with Bush on the unpopular war was followed by a series of votes actually supporting the White House policy. Longtime Democratic pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides says the impact has been devastating.

"He said he split with the President, but didn't vote that way. Often times senators can get way with that, but the whole world is watching this issue. The TV ads reinforced his votes for the White House position. The margin of error of this poll is 4.1%, meaning he may be at 45%. But the crucial number for reelection is 50%, and he is definitely below that. He is a wounded bull, but the Democrats still have not come with a heavyweight candidate.

"Pete still has to deal with the Senate Ethics Committee investigation on the US attorney firings. If the Democrats don't take advantage of his weakness they will have blown an historic opportunity to take the Senate seat," said Pavlides.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

The poll was taken Sept. 14 thru the 16th and represents an 11 point crash from Pete's August approval of 52%. In this month's poll, 54% said they disapprove of the job Domenici is doing, 41% approve and 6% said they were not sure. Only 62% of Republicans approved (that could be low) while 66% of the Dems gave Domenici a negative rating as did 58% of independent voters. At the beginning of the year Pete was at 66% approval. He's been going down like he's on a Taos ski slope.

WHO HAS THE GUTS?

State Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colón was quick with a news release on the poll, saying it "confirms that Domenici is in serious danger of losing his job when New Mexicans go to the polls next year."

But to whom? The party has two lesser knowns on the field, Don Wiviott and Jim Hannan of Santa Fe, but insiders don't believe they are of the weight class to defeat an even seriously wounded Domenici. The poll immediately rekindled speculation about Big Bill running. If his Prez campaign falters in January and there is still no notable Domenici foe, the Governor will come under enormous pressure to challenge the Senator, according to top Dems.

Dems salivated even as they fretted. Can they wait until early next year for Richardson? If he doesn't want it, will he say so and help flush out a major league contender? And what about ABQ Mayor Chavez who fouled up when he said he never would challenge Domenici? That promise is looking like it could have been written in melted butter. If these numbers hold, he will have to consider backtracking. The Republicans seem to know it, having attacked the ABQ Mayor with a billboard campaign only this month.

MORE EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

The Alligators said the US attorney scandal and the unpopular war may not be the only reasons for the Domenici descent. They also sited the possible layoffs at Los Alamos and Sandia Labs, heavy employers of Republicans who have heard Domenici say to prepare for layoffs, instead of pledging that he can pull them out of the fire as he has in the past. Also, at 75, Domenici's frailty is showing and voters may be picking up on it.

What can Pete do to avoid disaster? Start voting against the war? Get some early media out in the mailboxes? What? So far, crossing his fingers and hoping for no strong opponent has done the trick, but how long can that hold with his approval in the cellar?

There will be an absolute feeding frenzy over this poll in the upper ranks of Democratic power in Washington and New York, if not in laid-back New Mexico. The nationals will continue to ramp up the pressure as they try to pressure Domenici to withdraw from the race. Don't rule out the possibility.

For now, call your bookie and have him take down those bets you placed on the 2008 NM Senate race because here in the early fall of 2007, all bets have just been called off.

NM RUDY ROOTERS

Republicans finally get to make a little noise in New Mexico in the 2008 Prez race. They've been more than overshadowed as favorite son Bill Richardson seeks the Dem Prez nod, but Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, who raised the flag here for contender Rudy Giuliani a few months ago, will tonight host what appears to be the first formal state function for a 2008 GOP Prez hopeful. White will host a "National House Party" for the former New York Mayor. The event will feature a live Web-cast from the candidate at 6:30 p.m. Those attending won't be hit hard for donations, but the hat will be passed.

BILL BEAT

He's covered everywhere, but we distill it for you. Here's the stuff we need to know on Bill's latest campaign doings.

DAMN THE ALLIGATORS!

City Councilor Don Harris, fresh from a near all-nighter at the ABQ Ethics Board where he was fined $2500 for five campaign finance violations, checked in to disagree with the Alligators who are telling us his chances of losing his recall election are even money or better. " I am going door-to-door and not getting that impression at all. There is no "there" there to this recall," he declared.

Meantime, Harris attorney Doug Antoon weighed in our coverage of the ethics hearing.

"Wow, Joe. That you could report what you did, when the number of alleged violations were about 180, potentially totaling $90,000 in fines, but only resulting in five violations totaling $2,500, is beyond me and those who witnessed the hearing. (Recall advocate) Lowe promised that "fraud would be proven" and that "this would be devastating to Don." Reality check, please."

Wow, Doug. Don was hit with I believe was the largest ethics fine in ABQ history. The council job pays about $10,000 a year, so $2500 is a big deal. That's your reality check. As for proving fraud and whether the hearing was "devastating," we'll leave that up to District Nine voters.

And a final note form Counselor Antoon:

"I knew as a lawyer that we had just watched lemons being turned into lemonade by an Ethics Board that refused to be manipulated by the pressure from the 11th floor of the building we were in. Merciful justice was served," said Antoon in a somewhat poetic mood.

Recall advocate James Lowe, 78, upon hearing of Antoon's comments, quipped: "What kind of marijuana is he smoking?" Lowe maintained the ethics outcome for Harris was as devastating as he predicted, and he said his group would put the ethics board news in a mailer to be dropped into the mailboxes of the district's registered voters this week.

HARRIS SURVIVAL KIT

Meanwhile, Harris has sent out a slick 14 minute DVD explaining what he calls "the hateful" campaign to end his term early. He also sent out an audio CD to make his case. His attorney also poked us for using the term "guilty" in describing Don's ethics violations, saying that word only applies to criminal cases and tribunals. But the chairman of the ethics board, attorney Bob Tinnin, Jr. asked the board members if they found Harris "guilty" or "not guilty" on each charge.

The 11th floor, of course, is where one Martin J. Chavez spends his workdays as Mayor of our beloved River City. Funny how it was a fundraiser put on by Marty for Don Harris in June of '06 that led to many of Harris's finance problems. Marty was trying to make friends with Harris who he did not support in the '05 election. But the kiss and make-up didn't last long. Now, Marty will get to appoint someone to fill out Don's term if voters kick the councilor to the curb next Tuesday.

ALSO ON THE TRAIL...

The Harris recall has been sucking up a lot of the oxygen surrounding Tuesday's ABQ election, but the candidates in the four other council districts are out there on the circuit. Most of them spoke to representatives of the city's development community Tuesday. Notably absent was District Six contender Rey Garduño who seeks to represent the most environmentally active neighborhoods.

Media coverage of the election will heat up in the final days. Over at the ABQ Journal, Dan McKay, the paper's new city hall reporter, but an old newsroom hand, is busy on the campaign trail. Besides the print edition, Dan is posting to his new blog. The ABQ Trib's election watcher, Erik Siemers, will join us Monday at 5 p.m. for our KANW 89.1 FM live Election Eve Special.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Don Harris
A marathon session of the ABQ Ethics Board ended so late City Councilor Don Harris barely had time to make it to a downtown bar to drown his sorrows--if that's what he wanted to do. And sorrows he had. Shortly before 1:00 a.m. today the board, after hearing arguments and deliberating for over seven hours, slapped the councilor with fines totaling $2500 for five campaign finance violations. The timing was not good for the 45 year old attorney and freshman lawmaker; he faces a recall election next Tuesday at which the Alligators say his chances of becoming the first councilor in city history to get kicked out are even money, if not better.

But if Harris was hurting, he wasn't showing it. He told me in a wee hours of the morning cell call from council chambers that he sees the board's action as "mostly an exoneration and a bit of an admonition."

But your faithful blogger, out of Starbucks but keeping the hyperactivity going with heavily sugared micro-brewed cream soda, pointed out that the fine imposed is one of the biggest in memory. "I think they (the board) were trying to send a message. This was heavily publicized," argued Harris. But he added that he "was responsible for a lot of this" echoing an apology he made when he testified during the hearing.

Recall supporters will have their own spin and put it in capital letters in the final lit pieces that will hit the mailboxes in Harris's far NE Heights district. Up there the popular past time is golf at the landmark Four Hills Country Club, but it's a past time that for now has been supplanted by the bloodsport of La Politica.

THE LUCKY SEVEN

Sanders
I'm pretty impressed with our legal beagles. All three of their favorite candidates for the NM Supreme Court advanced Monday. The state commission charged with sending names to the Governor for a final decision gave him seven names to consider from the 15 they interviewed. The Beagles liked the chances of ABQ criminal defense attorney Charlie Daniels, ABQ District Judge Linda Vanzi and former UNM law professor Maureen Sanders. All three made the list, and one of the Beagles told me last night he thinks one of them will likely get the final nod from the Guv.

The others recommended are state General Services Secretary Art Jaramillo, NM Court of Appeals Judge Michael Vigil, ABQ attorney Ed Ricco, who practices appellate law with the Rodey firm, and Las Cruces area Chief District Court Judge Robert Robles whose supporters argue the five member high court is overdue for a justice from southern NM.

All the names are strong, but the vacancy Big Bill is filling is that of the late Justice Pamela Minzner, and while gender alone will not determine the appointment, voters did choose a woman for the term being filled. That will weigh heavily on the Governor and, we suppose, his advisers. But, as usual, voters get the final say. Whoever gets named has to run for election in '08.

CITY ELECTION ACTION

There will be more city election action on the radio tonight. At 6 p.m. KANW 89.1 FM will air a recording of a District Four city council forum featuring incumbent Brad Winter and challenger Paulette de'Pascal.

I'll be on the station at 5 p.m. Monday with my team of election analysts for our Election Eve special. Our live continuous coverage of the ABQ election starts at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday on 89.1 FM. If you are out of the listening area, you can catch all of the above programs via streaming media at the KANW Web site. (Sorry Mac users, the site seems to support only Windows.)

Thanks to Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Serrano & Sons Construction and Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) for their support in making possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

FUNNY NUMBERS

State Fair chief Fred Peralta may want to check his math. At the conclusion of the big show Peralta declared: "There's between 1.8 and 1.9 million (people) in the state and over 700,000 of them come to the fair. That's a tremendous penetration per capita."

Actually, the state's population is now put at two million. And while there are over 700,000 visits to the fair, that doesn't mean there's 700,000 visitors. Many folks go twice or more and get counted for each visit. Still, with the array of entertainment competition the fair faces these days, the visitor count is not bad. As for Fred, the former mayor of Taos will be leaving his post as head of Expo New Mexico and heading home. You can count on that.

CAMPOS CLIMBING?

Insiders in Las Vegas, NM say don't be surprised if Dem State Sen. Pete Campos is soon named president of Luna Community College. Campos, in the senate since '91, is currently superintendent of the Las Vegas city schools and has a long background in education. A new Prez should be picked within a couple of weeks.

Keep us posted. Send your latest political news to us via this e-mail link.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Ever wonder what Big Bill would be like on Prozac? I think I found out Friday night as the at-home and at-ease Presidential hopeful effortlessly entertained some ardent supporters at a late summer rally on pastoral grounds in the heart of ABQ's South Valley.

It had been a while since I had been on the trail so I had the Alligators comp me a $25 ticket to Joe and Kathy Duffy's Bill bash. It was a chance to take the measure of the man who is taking New Mexican politics where it has never gone before. Besides keeping intact an enviable 35 year old record of never paying to get into a political event, the occasion reinforced my ambiguity about what this governorship has meant and what it will ultimately mean to our future politics.

Richardson, like most of us, is at his best among friends. Friday night with no strangers to impress or convince, he displayed the cool confidence of a happy warrior, repeatedly sporting a mischievous and familiar grin as he hit his humor lines. After nearly thirty years of exposure his image has been ingrained in our collective consciousness as deeply as green chile or the ubiquitous Zia symbol. Gone is the slightly tentative congressman who returned in 2002 to seek the Governor's chair, but who had to reacquaint himself with the state he adopted in early adulthood to use as a political stepping stone.

But if Richardson has staked an irrevocable claim on New Mexico, so too has this place on him. "When I am driving through the cornfields of Iowa at 10:30 at night and going to meet six people, I think back to 1980 when I ran for Congress against Manuel Lujan and how it was that way then, too. I draw on that experience," related the Governor.

Richardson has always believed in himself. And he believes in his politics. The ambiguity arises when you contemplate his belief system. What are the ideas he holds absolutely dear, the bedrock principles upon which this consequential career is built? And if we can't answer that question today, what will finally be the Richardson legacy? That "he got things done?"

Watching Richardson as he puts himself through his paces like a seasoned thoroughbred rounding the bend, I think I am witnessing a politician who is important to his time and probably the time to come, but I need time and distance to say precisely why.

Back in the moment, there are backs to slap, laughs to be had and photos to be snapped. The parade goes on.

BETTER THAN NONE

A weekend New York Times piece highlighting where the Dem Prez candidates stand at this point gave only one line to Big Bill, but it was a pretty good one: " Though these three candidates (Hillary, Obama and Edwards) have dominated the race, there are signs that Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has made inroads."

The polls in the Prez race have become somewhat static for all the contenders, something expected as we prepare for the final Iowa onslaught when voters are forced to make up their minds at the critical January 14 caucuses. Imagine the media bombardment to come.

Most national analysts echo the Times' viewpoint--that Richardson has made inroads--and are impressed that the relative unknown has managed to hold on to double-digit polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire against much better known rivals and despite his numerous campaign gaffes.

New Mexico Dems are keenly aware that the Guv is a long shot for the nomination, but in a recent poll 55% of them felt he would end up as the party's Veep selection. By hanging just behind the Big Three, Big Bill is keeping alive that prospect, as well as his chances to become the USA's next Secretary of State or a NM US Senator. Capturing that Prez nomination will require a combination of serendipity and the sky falling on one or more of the front runners. But you already knew that...

BILL'S TRIO

Working to boost his fundraising numbers before the next money reports September 30, Big Bill's campaign tonight is serving up his key aides to contributors willing to pony up a donation of $2300, the maximum federal law allows for the Prez primaries.

Those attending the Santa Fe "max out party" at the home of businesswoman Diana MacArthur will get briefings from Bill campaign manager Dave Contarino, his finance Chair Ed Romero and pollster Paul Maslin. Do you suppose they will tell those attending that to get the Guv in the top tier of candidates they need to raise even more money?

PARTYING WITH PEARCE
Pearce & Murphy
It was who wasn't there rather than who was that had the tongues wagging at Friday night's big Chaves county fundraiser for GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce. State House Minority Whip Dan Foley and his political cohort, State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair, were not among the 100 mingling members of the Roswell establishment as it raised $70,000 for Pearce's re-election kitty.

It was not a huge surprise as Foley and Adair have been at odds with Roswell oilman Mark Murphy who co-hosted the bash at his new offices. Murphy openly backed a primary opponent in 2006 against State Rep. Nora Espinoza, a close ally of Adair's.

The Foley-Adair faction has seen better days. Foley is entangled in a nightmarish court case in which he is charged with disorderly conduct and resisting police arrest. Adair, while seemingly safe for reelection, has to look over his shoulder for a possible primary opponent.

Pearce has tried to stay neutral in this factional warfare which features the moderate Republicanism of Murphy and company contrasted with the hard-right approach of Foley and Adair, but the battle may be as much about how one conducts politics as it is about policy.

Pearce insiders report the congressman is tired of the fighting. They say his operatives believe Foley and Adair were responsible for a back door attack on one of the co-hosts of Friday's Pearce fundraiser. Pearce would like to see the infighting resolved, but he may have to step up and help make it happen, something Senator Domenici and other GOP leaders have been reluctant to do.

MEAL POWER

There 's an old-fashioned way to win the hearts of voters--through their stomachs. And that's just what Democratic US Senate contender Don Wiviott is doing. The Santa Fe developer has invited assorted Dem party players to a free dinner at ABQ's Ladera Golf Course Tuesday night. One hungry activist calls it a "blessed event," but did not disclose what was on the menu. Wiviott can afford good chow. He has seeded his campaign for the right to take on GOP Senator Pete Domenici with $400,000 of his own cash. That's enough for a whole lot of posole.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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