Wilson & Family
Heather has taken her shot, now the ball is in Steve's court. Betting among the top analysts in the highest stakes poker game in recent state political history was all over the map with a tendency toward saying Pearce should stay put in his southern congressional seat and not follow Heather into the race for the GOP '08 US Senate nomination, but nothing is certain until Pearce shows his hand next week.

At a hastily called news conference (Complete transcript.) at the ABQ Nativo Lodge hotel at 4 p.m. Thursday, the 46 year old five term ABQ Congresswoman launched her bid to beat the odds and retain for her Republican Party the seat Senator Domenici is retiring from. If she pulls it off, she would become the first female US Senator in New Mexico history.

Her brief announcement speech was platitudinous. Clearly, the point was just to get in the race as quickly possible. And quick it was, coming exactly 24 hours after Domenici announced he would not seek a seventh term in 2008. Unlike her first US House race in 1998, she begins this contest for the GOP nomination without Pete's public endorsement--at least not yet--and she said she has not yet sought his nod.

"There will be time for that." She said.

That Heather's event was hastily arranged was made clear by her decision to limit questions to just three. She said she had not spoken to Pearce about her decision, defended that famous phone call to US Attorney David Iglesias as "entirely appropriate" and made the comments about the Domenici endorsement.

The announcement made it live on the 4 p.m. news of KOB-TV and KRQE-TV, but KRQE bailed out after a couple of minutes as Heather delayed saying the magic words: "I am running for the United States Senate."

If the speech was written with the needs of live television in mind, it didn't show. Later, she won decent coverage on other newscasts.

"She didn't have much to say and it was thrown together quickly. But she was smart to go early. Being first on the field is an advantage and gives Pearce something to think about," analyzed one of our Dem insiders.

THE PEARCE BEAT
Pearce
Pearce is fielding advice from across the spectrum. He is in the House minority, not the greatest future, but giving it up and getting nothing is not a pleasant alternative.

The problem the R's face, say the pros, is their exposure.

"They have now vacated a US Senate seat and the ABQ House seat. That's two they have to defend. If Pearce gives his up that will be three. The odds dictate they're going to lose at least one of them and maybe all three. They are out on the limb, with the threat that New Mexico could turn into virtually a one party state come November of next year," explained another of our veteran analysts.

Wilson retained her seat by the narrowest of margins in 2006--under 900 votes--and has the least to lose. Her House seat was already at risk and the shot at the Senate, even if it starts with long odds, could turn in her direction depending on events. Her ability to make a quick and firm decision highlights the inner strength that has helped her survive in a largely Dem district. She is to be underestimated by only the foolhardy.

The New Hampshire native has also worked hard for a decade to appeal to Hispanic voters. At her announcement was famed New Mexican musician Al Hurricane, obviously there to send a message to a key voting block.

Wilson is a racehorse with blinders on. She can hear the footsteps of Big Bill and his possible entry into the race, but she isn't going to look. If he gets in, she's a probable show horse who
takes a nice paying lobbying gig. If he doesn't, she could take the race in a down to wire run against a lesser Dem.

Complicating things for Pearce is GOP State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons who is toying with a GOP senate run. If he got in, he could steal Republican votes from Pearce on the south and east sides, handing the nomination to Wilson. Pearce, like Dem Rep. Tom Udall up north, has a sure thing. And like Udall, Pearce could decide to fold when it comes to playing a hand for the Senate.

DEM SENATE POSITIONING

Chavez
On the Dem side of the Senate fence, as stunning as it seems, there are very few obvious candidates with statewide stature that the Dems can go to and feel confident of picking up the Pete seat.

My media and political sources were telling me late Friday that there has been a new twist in the thinking at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, headed up by New York Senator Chuck Schumer and charged with finding good Dem Senate contenders.

"The pressure is now being cranked up on Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish to get in the race. They see her as the strongest candidate and (ABQ Mayor) Marty Chavez as second best. They think her ability to perform particularly well in SE NM is especially important, and the numbers crunchers feel she has the best chance to also easily win the Dem primary," revealed one of our informed sources.

But this is a real longshot. Denish is still seen as resisting the notion of a senate run, but if she got in and lost she would still be Light Guv, although running for Governor in 2010 and winning would be much more problematic. Analysts I ran this scenario by pointed out that the DSCC is 3,000 miles away from here. They may not see how close Denish is to the coveted governorship in 2010, but she does.

Meanwhile. ABQ Mayor Chavez was preparing to go all-in. He has already told intimates as much. And like Heather, it's the smart move. If Big Bill Richardson does get in late in the game, Marty could always bow out and still be Mayor. Meantime, he starts raising money and healing the open wounds he has with the liberal wing of his party. Marty will be joining Santa Fe's Don Wiviott and Jim Hannan when he announces his candidacy next week.

DEM HOUSE RACE

The race for that open ABQ Congressional seat was also twisting and turning on the final weekday of this most historic week in state politics. Insiders said former Attorney General Patricia Madrid who told me she would be doing polling to help her weigh her options for a senate run is now also contemplating a second run at the Wilson congressional seat, but her husband told the Journal that is not the case.

Martin Heinrich and lawyer Jon Adams are already in; State Rep. Al Park is looking at it hard. Still, there is no major league Hispanic contender and some Dems think despite Madrid's meltdown during the final days of her '06 bout with Heather, she retains enough support to win, especially in a Dem leaning year. But there are many skeptics, some who guffawed when hearing of the scenario. Madrid's polling, if objective, should settle the question.

If Patsy stays on the bench, former Big Bill cabinet secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham would be the sole Hispanic in the Dem contest. Would more emerge?

HOUSE R ACTION

On the Republican side, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White confirmed late Friday that he will fly to D.C. Monday to meet with the political heavies at the Republican National Congressional Committee and elsewhere.

White will make it official next week, and is already preparing to shed some potential baggage. He recently signed up as head of Mayor Rudy Giuliani's NM Presidential campaign, but said when he becomes an official candidate he will give up that position. Giuliani's liberal views on social issues have not been popular with conservatives, some of whom are ready to hang them around the Sheriff's neck. There's an upside even to the downside for White. If he loses, he still gets to stay on as Sheriff, having been re-elected in 2006.

ABQ State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones is starting to make some noise about joining White in the race for the GOP nod. She is on the money hunt now and will know if she can come up with enough to do the trick in a week or two. How White will fare in the money department is also the topic of speculation.

MY BOTTOM LINES

We are going to be seeing bluffs, trial balloons, smoke screens and all kinds of maneuvers in the weeks ahead as a large cast of assorted political wannabes and those already in power positions go for the big prizes at stake. It should be a lot of fun, but be careful giving too much credence to a candidacy until they show you the money and the commitment needed in these big time races.

Thanks to KKOB-AM's Peter St. Cyr and photog Mark Bralley for helping to produce today's special edition blog. Email your latest news and comments from the link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

• WILSON ANNOUNCED FOR THE GOP NOMINATION FOR US SENATE AT 4:06 P.M. MOUNTAIN TIME AT ABQ'S NATIVO LODGE
• PEARCE "STRONGLY CONSIDERING" SENATE RUN--ABQ JOURNAL
• SPECIAL SATURDAY BLOG IN PROGRESS FOR WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM

The past was honored and Pete Domenici was venerated, but the birth pangs of the political future shared equal time Thursday on one of the most storied days in the history of La Politica. I was positioned just yards from the Senate legend as he uttered the words that will change the politics of our lifetime.

"I come here today, to the site of the school I attended as a boy, to tell you that I will not run for re-election to the United States Senate." Domenici announced. (Complete transcript.) (Complete video.)

The atmosphere was one of nostalgia and pride in the native son who went to the senate in 1973 and went on to become the state's longest-serving senator. In the crowd were the old warhorses of New Mexico politics who were with Pete at the beginning of his fabled run. They included former NM Congressman Manuel Lujan, attorney Billy Marchiondo, "Smokey" Sanchez Davis and businessman Bing Grady.

Domenici, now frail at 75, kept his emotions in check and spoke of the work to come in his remaining 15 months, but the tears flowed freely among men as well as women. Members of his large family seemed to be bracing themselves as they stood erect behind the man who has insured that their name will be known as long as there is a place called New Mexico.

A VERY HUMAN MOMENT

Domenici and his wife, Nancy, seemed at peace. In introducing her, he described how she has recently been helping him to better pronounce his vowels and speak more forcefully on his weekly radio program. The humanity of the moment overwhelmed the audience.

The great wave of history represented by the occasion was brought home as Domenici explained how in 1972 he became the first New Mexico Republican Senator elected since Bronson Cutting 38 years earlier, in 1935. I had heard him say it before, but on this day the statement had my head swirling with images of nearly a century of our state's politics and people, and I admit it sent a chill up my spine.

Throughout the state, New Mexicans paused to watch and listen to Domenici's words broadcast over the three major television networks, Web sites and radio outlets. The audience spanned the generations.

23 Year old Scott Darnell of the NM Republican Party, born when Pete was already seeking his third senate term, described himself as awestruck by the unfolding events. 26 year old Antoinette Antonio, a reporter for KOB-TV, said the station's bustling newsroom fell silent as Domenici began his valedictory. How often does that happen?

INSIDE THE DEPARTURE
Pete & Nancy
Domenici chief-of staff Steve Bell, with the leader since the beginning in '72, described for me the phone call placed to the President by Senator Domenici to tell him of his plans to retire.

"It was a five to seven minute conversation. I talked with the President's chief of staff the next day to find out what had been said on the President's end, but he told me the President had the room cleared while he talked with Senator Domenici. That's something special," said a wistful Bell.

From the White House Thursday came the President's official statement on the Domenici retirement.

"Pete is a man of intellect and compassion have valued his counsel and friendship, and I look forward to working with him as he serves out the remainder of his term.”

Domenici, who reporters have ribbed for years for having an oversized ego, abandoned lofty rhetoric or self importance in summing up his acclaimed career.

"We left the state in better shape than we started." He declared.

Soon after, it was over. The Senator took no questions. He was in the arms of those who will now finally reclaim him from a lifetime on the political stage.

THE REST OF THE TERM

Domenici peppered his swan song with references to the remaining work he has before him. It seemed in part aimed at speculation that his illness could force him to resign, not just retire. If that occurred, Democratic Governor Richardson would name a replacement, something that last happened in 1962 when another NM Senate legend, Dennis Chavez, passed from the scene.

FILLING THOSE SHOES

Staff chief Bell also told me that Domenici "will not endorse a candidate at this time" in the contest for the GOP Senate nomination. He deflected questions on whether and endorsement would come in the weeks ahead.

In 1998, when Rep. Steve Schiff died, Domenici, in an unprecedented move, cleared the Republican primary field by endorsing Heather Wilson for the ABQ Congressional seat. Such an endorsement now would have impact, but not nearly as much as it did then because power is draining away from Pete. And that leads us to those birth pangs of the future that we referenced at the top of this blog.

HERE SHE COMES

Wilson, as expected, is going to be the first to jump, with an official announcement of her candidacy for the 2008 Senate nomination expected today. (We will tell you when it happens, so check back here.) Insiders report she has called a meeting of her "kitchen cabinet," a group of advisers, for a 2 p.m. meeting. Unconfirmed reports late Thursday had her holding a 1:30 news conference where she will toss her hat in the ring.

There was some grumbling among R's that Wilson's candidacy was being leaked even before Pete had given his official retirement statement. But stopping the speculation was like the Little Dutch Boy trying to stop the dam from cracking by plugging a hole with with his finger.

WHY SO SOON?

Wilson wants to be first in so she can have a shot at clearing the field. The only rival of consequence she possibly faces is GOP southern Congressman Steve Pearce. Washington sources were hinting that Pearce could be poised for a run against Wilson, but there was no way of telling what the final decision would be.

"I think it's 50-50," said one of our top analysts.

That seems like pretty high odds and I can see why after reading this statement Pearce made when asked about running for the Pete seat.

“We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” Pearce said. How's that for a shot across a certain Heather's bow?

The two, as this blog first reported months ago over the protests of certain GOP insiders, have been, to use Pearce's words, jockeying for position in the event of a senate vacancy. Now the moment of truth has arrived.

PEARCE VS. WILSON
Heather & Steve
A Wilson-Pearce primary would be bloody, not only creating opportunities for the Dems to win two congressional seats, but perhaps increasing the odds of the Dems taking back the seat.

Pearce, with an unquestioned conservative pedigree, could start the race as the favorite because primary turnout is weighted towards conservatives. But to close the gap Wilson could use the argument that she is a stronger general election candidate.

Neither Pearce or Wilson would struggle to raise money for the contest. This would be a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

Pearce may be ready to make the leap, say the insiders, because he is now a part of the GOP minority in the House with little chance that will change. At 60, he has just one shot at the senate seat. But if Big Bill gets in the race, the pros say either Pearce or Wilson would be likely losers. A decision not to run will look brilliant by Pearce if the Guv eventually gets in, but a colossal blunder if Richardson doesn't. Hey, no one said this politics stuff was easy.

UDALL IS OUT

While not an easy decision, Dem US Rep Tom Udall found himself in less of a quandary when weighing whether to seek the Dem nod for the senate seat. Last night, the ABQ Journal reported he was a no go. That broke the hearts of a dozen or so hopefuls already lining up to become the nominee in the heavily Dem district.

For Udall, who recently assumed a position on the House Appropriations Committee, the politicos said the decision was wise. His importance to the NM Congressional delegation has grown with his new House assignment and a statewide senate run would have been brutal for the liberal lawmaker. However, he will probably still be a frequent visitor to the Senate side of the Capitol come 2009. Tom's cousin, Mark Udall, is heavily favored to capture a Colorado senate seat next year.

DARING WITH DARREN
White
Udall's decision means we will not get the political trifecta some were betting on--a turnover of all of the state's three US House seats, but we could still get two out of the three. And for sure we are getting one--Heather's. On that front, it is known by GOP Alligators that some Republican National Committee types and the faction of the state party involving lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett and attorney Pat Rogers, will push Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White as Heather's heir.

White told me he will start talking about his future today, after refusing to do so out of deference to Senator Domenici. But White may find the field has not been entirely cleared for him. The lure of an open seat could be too much to resist by independently wealthy businessmen or political types like ABQ State Senator Mark Boitano who told us he is going to take a look at a run. But White, having been elected twice and with the R's dealing with a so far weak bench, appears to be in a good starting position. He could come in as early as this weekend.

HURRICANE BILL

Following Big Bill is like tracking a shifting hurricane. It veers a lot. First, we see the door is open for a senate run, then the door appears completely closed. Here's an example.

"I am not running for the Senate. I'm running for president," Richardson said in a brief phone interview with The Associated Press.
Well, the door may be closed for Mr. Reynolds, but those seeking a shot at the power and glory of a political lifetime remain leery of any declaration flatly ruling out a run that does not come directly from The Man. Hanging up the phone doesn't exactly get them where they want to go, does it?

"I don't think the Governor knows what he is going ot do," commented former Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid in a midday phone assessment. She says she is pondering the open seat.

The smart money is saying to stop listening to Bill and just watch the calendar. The thinking being that he is determined to give his long-shot Prez candidacy as much rope as possible, meaning he wants to have voters in the first primary states pass judgment on him. That will come in January. Richardson's friends and opponents seem unified in the belief that if the presidential run becomes a bummer, the Domenici senate seat comes back in play.

BILL'S TEMPER

Judging by that AP interview, the Guv seems irritated by the senate speculation, even though he is in fourth place in the early state Prez polls. But you don't get to where he has been without having an ego. While the brass ring looks enticing right now, it can get tarnished pretty quickly and the prospect of becoming one of 100 in the United States Senate can become very enticing. Stay tuned.

PLOTTING FOR BILL
You Know Who
This cat is out of the bag. No matter what the popular Governor says, February 12, the filing day for the senate seat will be the day the speculation on his possible senate candidacy ceases, and not one day before. (OK. If he takes first or second place in Iowa, we might not seem him for a while.)

The Alligators have even outlined a plan for Bill to get the necessary 3,000 or so needed petition signatures just days before that fateful deadline.

"His campaign could collect those signatures the day of the February 5 New Mexico presidential caucuses. Thousands of Democratic voters will be meeting that day and the campaign could get petitions signed right there," advised one of the Gators.

If they keep this up, I'm going to ask Bill campaign manger Dave Contarino to start cutting checks for the free advice.

SO WHERE ARE WE?

With Udall out and for the moment assuming that Big Bill does not make the run, the frontrunner for the 2008 New Mexico Democratic US Senate nomination is ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Now a good deal of our little ol' reading audience just let out a big groan. Marty is not the most popular guy in Dem denizens. But right now he's all they got.

Patsy Madrid tells me she is going to do polling soon to assess a senate run, even though some are advising her to take a look at the ABQ House seat for which she ran and narrowly lost to Heather Wilson in 2006. But other than Madrid, who is out there besides Chavez with name ID and money to launch a race?

What about Don Wiviott, you say? He's already in the race and he now says his campaign budget will be $2.1 million. He represents the progressive wing of the party that has no use for the ways of Mayor Marty. Maybe Don can make the dash, but a well-known Hispanic Dem seeking a statewide nomination is historically a powerful combination.

(Santa Fe's Jim Hannan is also in the race, but says he may drop out as a result of recent developments.)

HANDICAPPING MARTY

A His Honor running for senate will try not to talk about those bitter local issues that have been proven so pesky. The bet is Chavez can go liberal faster than his dreaded red light cameras can take a snapshot of your license plate.

But Marty is also worried about a late Big Bill bid. Does he form an "exploratory committee" and not go overboard with raising money until the February D-Day? Or does he go all-in to keep others out? It's like offering a vegetarian a choice between a rib-eye or a New York Strip. Neither option quite fits the bill.

The events of the past few days have so many angles they can keep you up all night. And they are, so let's keep going, and steer our Honda's back to the ABQ Congressional race.

My Alligators, getting a real workout, come with the news that former Big Bill cabinet secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham is expected to announce her Democratic bid for the seat October 11. She will be joining ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich who has raised a couple of hundred grand, but now knows the meaning of the phrase--reshuffling the deck. You might even say Heinrich will miss Heather because as my grandma always said, "Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't."

THE BOTTOM LINES

So with Udall staying put, we've gone from pandemonium to mere mayhem. As the reality of raising the ungodly sums needed to run an effective campaign sets in, the field in these congressional races will winnow rapidly.

I remember back in '72 when we had something like 32 candidates for the US Senate when Senator Clinton Anderson retired. But those were simpler times. We will have some political unknowns and perennial runners get in this time, but with a candidate required to have a ton of money and also get 20% of the delegates at their party's respective March pre-primary conventions, we may see candidates start, only to quickly flame out.

Congressional politics is a place these days where only the big dogs can eat. The bowls are out and filled with the best of chow. Let's see who ends up having the heartiest appetites.

New Mexico's political journalists are in a state of sleep-deprived euphoria. Barry Massey of the AP, Steve Terrell of the New Mexican, Jeff Jones, Leslie Linthicum and Mike Gallagher of the Journal and Kate Nash and Erik Siemers of the ABQ Tribune all attended the Domenici retirement speech while Heath Haussamen collated their reporting and his own from Las Cruces. Carol Clark of the Los Alamos Monitor came down from the hill for the big event. The three ABQ TV stations and their reporters have all hit it hard with a myriad of special reports on the air and on their Web sites. For the public it's a welcome break from what veteran TV newsman Stuart Dyson calls "the murder meter."

Thanks to Mark Bralley for today's photos.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

TODAY'S 4 P.M. SENATOR DOMENICI RETIREMENT ANNOUNCEMENT TO BE BROADCAST LIVE ON KOB-TV, KRQE-TV, KOAT-TV AND KANW 89.1 FM RADIO. I WILL REPORT LIVE ON KANW PRIOR TO ANNOUNCEMENT AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER

• REP. UDALL NOT RUNNING FOR DOMENICI SEAT--ABQ JOURNAL
• HEATHER WILSON WILL ANNOUNCE FRIDAY AT 1:30 p.m.
• GOVERNOR DECLARES TODAY "PETE V. DOMENICI DAY"
• WASHINGTON POST: "MAJOR" DEM OPPORTUNITY
• RICHARDSON CAMPAIGN'S LATEST STATEMENT ON SENATE RUN
  

Sen. Pete Domenici Expected to Retire (washington post)

ANNOUNCEMENT SET FOR ABQ FOR 4 P.M. THURSDAYAT SAINT MARY'S SCHOOL DOWNTOWN ABQ.
Veteran Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) is expected to announce tomorrow that he will retire from the Senate in 2008, according to several informed sources, a decision that further complicates an already difficult playing field for Republicans next November.

Domenici has struggled with health problems over the last several years and has been dogged by questions about the role he may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias in Albuquerque. As a result, he had been long been rumored as a potential retirement. Domenici's Senate office did not return a call this afternoon, but sources close to the senator say he will fly home to New Mexico tomorrow to make the announcement that he is retiring.

The six-term senator joins Republican Sens. John Warner (Va.), Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Wayne Allard (Colo.) on the sidelines for 2008.

The most likely candidates on the Republican side are Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Several Democrats are mentioned including Rep. Tom Udall, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. The dream candidate for Democrats is Gov. Bill Richardson but his advisers insist he is not interested and focused on the 2008 presidential race. Wealthy businessman Don Wiviott is already in the race and has put several hundred thousand dollars of hiw own money into the bid.

More to come on this opening tomorrow...

You didn't need Sherlock Holmes to detect the major theme of Albuquerque Election '07. Mostly everything ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez wanted was defeated and most everything he didn't want was approved. That includes super-sized victories by his two fiercest city council foes, Debbie 'O'Malley and Brad Winter, a decisive win by Councilor Don Harris in defeating the effort to recall him from office and approval of two ballot measures that strengthen the hand of the nine member council over this executive and the ones to follow.

(Complete results here. Video coverage here and here.

All this was done with the lowest voter turnout in city history. Only about 10% or 28,000 of the registered voters bothered to come out to decide four city council races, 10 bond issues and five ballot propositions. But that old cliché about your vote making a difference was never more true. Now, as they say, let's go to the videotape.

DANCIN' DON

It was destined to be an evening of blowouts, symbolized by Councilor Harris' ability to muster 66% of the voters to keep him in office. We didn't see him lose one precinct. In victory, he blamed the recall on Mayor Chavez, although he said peace could be made. Don called the recall effort a "witch hunt" but he would not say whether he will seek re-election in 2009.

Whether this victory will strengthen him or not was hotly debated during the late night hours on our radio broadcast, but all agreed that Harris' heavy spending--nearly $50,000, ABQ's traditional reluctance to recall any elected officials and the fact that Don was not charged with any criminal conduct, were key reasons for his big win.

DEBBIE'S DELIGHT

City Council President Debbie O'Malley crushed challenger Katherine Martinez in District Two in the city's North Valley, scoring a whopping 72% of the vote to secure a second four year term. She returns to the council in an even stronger position to challenge the Mayor who she has tangled with non-stop.

She told our KANW FM audience that the Mayor was gracious and called her with congratulations, and she expressed hope that the two could work together, but clearly her political position to oppose him has been strengthened.

WINTER'S WONDER

What can you say about the astounding total Councilor Brad Winter came in with? Well, you can say by garnering 81% of the vote over challenger Paulette de'Pascal he scored the biggest contested council victory in city history. He also said he had spoken with Chavez who beat Brad in the 2005 mayoral race, setting off a personality battle that has become nearly legendary.

"It's like a marriage. Both sides have to compromise," commented Winter.

REY'S ROMP

And how about seeing the suspense drain out of the four way race for council District 6 before the sun barely set? Lenton Malry came to our radio studio at 7:23 and gave the blow-out results for Rey Garduño from Bandalier Elementary and Highland High and the party was over--not for Rey, of course, who told us his organization was responsible for the 48% victory, easily eclipsing the 40% mark necessary to avoid a run-off election.

A mild surprise was the second place finish of Republican Kevin Wilson over Joanie Griffin. Wilson came in with 23% to Griffin's 20%. Garduño consolidated the progressive vote in the district from day one and never let go.

TRUDY'S WALTZ

GOP Realtor Trudy Jones basked in the luxury of being unopposed on Election Night. She even took time out to tell us that Mayor Chavez, who was having a night out of Halloween 3, would have her support on the major issues. If only he could get four more of the councilors to go along with her.

CHECK THE KING

That there was a keep the King in check mood among the miniature voting block that turned out was also seen by the narrow passage of a measure that will make it much harder in the future to launch recall efforts against elected officials. It passed with 52%. My analysts, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, GOP State Rep. Larry Larrañaga and Dem Rep. Al Park, said the recall of Harris, who argued it was the Mayor that was out to get him, played a role in voters passing this tougher recall provision. Al and Larry said all that after eating a plate of crow for predicting on Monday night and on Tuesday's blog that Harris would be tossed out of office.

Another proposition that made it clear Mayor Marty was being given a telegraph was approval of the measure allowing the city council to appoint members to boards and city commissions. That's a first, and when you lump it in with the council victories and the Harris win, the 11th floor has some olive branch extending to do. Or, as Councilor Sally Mayer put it, "Marty better bring the whole tree."

Still, this is the same Mayor whose platform was rebuked in the 2003 city election and came back strong to win re-election in '05.. Now more than ever he needs the strength to truly compromise. The jig is up. He remains down 6 to 3 on the council and with Republican Mayer pledging to sometimes defect, he faces a possible 7 to 2.

Harris was careful not to gloat over his win as were O'Malley and Winter. It was not as if they received a massive mandate. And as the mayor pointed out the council is a moving dynamic and the votes on all issues will not be against him all the time. It will often depend on the issues. But, as we have written here before, second terms are often when elected executives see the chickens come home to roost. On Election Night '07 the egg layers were not just roosting at City Hall, they were threatening to take over the place.

TIPPING THE HAT

Thanks to everyone who helped with our KANW radio coverage last night. It was a blast. Field operations by Steve Cabiedes, Lenton Malry and Harry Pavlides--we called every race early. Photog Mark Bralley did double duty; Vic Segura was all over it at Government Center, producer Kevin Otero manned the main battle station. There's many others too numerous to mention, but their public service is noted and appreciated. And not to be forgotten are our generous sponsors--New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction.

We started on KANW at 6:30 p.m. and finished around 11:30. City Clerk Randy Autio and County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver avoided the Election Night curse, getting the job done early, except for the results from one precinct in District 4 that were put in the mail, instead of being sent down to Government center. Mayor Chavez and all the council winners and losers were generous with their time for the public radio coverage and their contribution is appreciated. I'll do a wrap up of the election action this morning at 9 a.m. on 770 KKOB-AM radio.

Reporting to you the early morning after, this is Joe Monahan in Albuquerque, NM.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

HERE IS THE LINK FOR ABQ ELECTION RESULTS STARTING AT 7 P.M. WE WILL BE BROADCASTING LIVE ON KAWN 89.1 FM IN ABQ/SANTA FE BEGINNING AT 6:30 P.M.


Don Harris has put up a vigorous fight but two state reps and a veteran observer of La Politica gathered for my Election Eve special Monday on KANW 89.1 FM predicted that ABQ District 9 City Councilor Don Harris will not survive the wrath of the voters and will become the first city official in history to be recalled by the electorate. We'll know after 7 p.m. tonight whether GOP State Rep. Larry Larrañaga, Dem State Rep. Al Park and Dem politico Terry Brunner have it right, or whether Harris pulls off the upset.

It was Harris' fellow Republican, Larrañaga, who summed up the panel consensus saying, the "public is fed up" with ethics violations and are not going to be tolerant. Rep. Park said the recent NM Treasurer scandal and the one over construction of the Bernalillo County Metro Courthouse gives voters a narrative of corruption they will use against the 45 year old attorney.

"He let it snowball" argued Brunner, state director for Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman. "I don't know if he moved fast enough" to stop the momentum of the recall.

But ace City Hall reporter Erik Siemers of the ABQ Tribune, monitoring late-breaking developments, agreed that many voters will be torn today because recalling Harris could lower the bar for future recalls and also because the councilor has not been charged with any criminal behavior.

Rep. Park faulted Harris' recall strategy which emphasized that Mayor Chavez would get to name a new councilor if he is recalled.

"That's inside baseball to many voters. He needed to stress why voters should keep him. He needed to run it more like a regular election campaign," declared the ABQ Dem.

But what if Don wins? "He'll be as strong as an ox," said Larrañaga.

MORE EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

All the panelists decried the overly negative mailers used in the council races, much of which resulted from what I dubbed Q Gate--failure of three of the candidates to accurately answer the ABQ Journal candidate questionnaire.

All agreed that this is an important election for Mayor Marty. The panel told me after the microphones were turned off that the Mayor benefits from some of the infighting with the council because it highlights his more moderate views. But they also said he needs to pick up a council vote to avoid future veto overrides, or else he could be marginalized in his final two years.

The panel consensus was that Councilors Debbie O'Malley and Brad Winter should have no trouble winning re-election, but they felt Brad's campaign went too negative against an opponent who never really posed much of a threat.

They felt that we should watch the lone R in the four way District 6 race, Kevin Wilson. "He could come in and take advantage of the negative campaign going on between Democrats Rey Garduño and Joanie Griffin," analyzed Brunner.

Griffin and Garduño have had had the most active campaigns. Garduño is the perceived front-runner in the SE Heights district, home to many progressives. As I left the radio station last night, I saw Joanie Griffin supporters waving signs on street corners. It took me back to 1980 when the tactic was first used by Bill Richardson when he ran for Congress against Rep. Manuel Lujan.

OUR COVERAGE TONIGHT
Alligators On Radio
Our Election Night coverage starts tonight at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM and continues until all results are in. Besides Reps Park and Larrañaga, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino will join us along with former State Rep. Lenton Malry. Vic Segura will man Government Center where the votes will be counted.

MORE TRAIL DUST

The Trib's Siemers and I took a big picture view of Election '07 in Monday's edition.

There's a measure on today's ballot that would make it harder to recall elected officials, even though none has ever suffered that fate, although today Don Harris could be the first. Photog and City Hall watcher Mark Bralley tells us this ballot proposition was the brainchild of outgoing Councilor Craig Loy who was upset at the attempted recall of fellow Republican Councilor Mayer over the tough animal control ordinance she authored. That sounds like a rather personal reason to change the charter permanently.

TURNOUT

How about 50,000 for the turnout today? That would be about 18% of those registered. We had about a 23% turnout in the 2003 city council elections.

POLLS

The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voter info at 768-3030 and here.

See you tonight on 89.1 FM and Wednesday morning at 9 a.m. on 770 KKOB-AM with Bob Clark. And we'll also be right here Wednesday with results and analysis of Election '07. Hope you can join us.

Thanks to New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction for helping to make possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

There will be a post-Chavez era in Albuquerque politics and its faint beginnings will start right after Tuesday's election results are tallied. But we have few clues on how the city's agenda will be shaped when Chavez retires from the Mayor's chair as he will likely do in 2009.

"Second termitis" is setting in. That's the disease most incumbents are afflicted with it as they complete the first half of their final terms. Mayor Marty is trying to control the infection by backing several council candidates in tomorrow's election, but no matter the outcome eyes will start looking toward the future and imagining it without a strong executive like Chavez because the odds are the next one won't be.

Most of the city council doesn't care for the Mayor. They find him overbearing and difficult to work with. But until now most of them voted with him these past six years and have done little to alter the direction he has set the city on. The fiercest opposition has been vocal, but infused with an anti-growth, condescending elitism that in '05 helped give Chavez the biggest election victory in city history. If it's true that powerful leaders are usually blessed with weak opponents, Mayor Marty qualifies.

How many city council roadblocks will be placed in Chavez's way in his final two years will be a key question as we count the election returns on KANW 89.1 FM Tuesday, but stopping Chavezism has to be a means to an end or the political becomes merely the personal.

History indicates the strong leadership of Chavez will be followed by a period of passivity. What ideas and personalities emerge to fill the forthcoming void will not be answered with this election, but when it's over that question will rapidly move to center stage.

ARE THEY EVEN NOW?
Griffin
Not again! After lambasting fellow District 6 city council contender Rey Garduño for not telling all on his ABQ Journal questionnaire, Joanie Griffin gets nailed for the same misstep.

Griffin, an ad agency owner, failed to disclose a 1994 state tax lien she and her late husband had leveled against them. The news came as Joanie flooded the district's mailboxes condemning Garduño's failure to disclose his 1989 misdemeanor shoplifting conviction.

Griffin said she did not reveal the lien because she believed it was against her husband, not her. Garduño said he inadvertently walked out of a department store with a telephone resulting in the shoplifting conviction. He said he thought it had been expunged from his record which is why he did not mention it to the newspaper. Earlier, District 4 council candidate Paulette de'Pascal admitted her college "degrees" actually came from an online outfit that required no class attendance. She did not explain that on her questionnaire.

The news that politicians omit negative facts about themselves is akin to hearing someone yell, "There's gambling in the casino!" All three hopefuls who got busted in Q Gate are first-time office-seekers which explains in part their trepidation about hanging out their dirty laundry. But by not coming clean, the rookie candidates paved the way for Election '07 to degenerate into name calling, anonymous blog blasting and mail pieces that gave new definition to juvenile delinquency. Not that Mr. and Mrs. Albuquerque are paying much mind to it. In this "modern" era they've seen it before and, to their chagrin, will likely see it all again.

BOYS WILL BE BOYS?

Adult supervision wasn't only needed in some of the council races. Up on the 11th floor of Government Center where Mayor Marty presides, there was the not too shocking news that city computers and phones may have been used for campaign purposes. Guys, if you're going to run Marty for Governor, you might want to take some remedial courses in Campaign 101.

THE ONE THAT MATTERS
Don Harris
The most important race on the ballot Tuesday is not a city council contest, but the recall election of far NE Heights District 9 Councilor Don Harris. We've never recalled an elected official since adopting the modern form of government in '74. There seems to be something in ABQ's DNA that works against the California mentality where everything is put to a vote and where even a governor is not safe from getting the boot at mid-term. There's also the not so unimportant news that our fair burgh has not been afflicted with a preponderance of crooks serving on its nine member council. However, if Harris is recalled, it could dent the inhibitions that city voters have had about such efforts, potentially changing future politics.

The Harris recall is the most serious we've had, and he's taken it seriously. I've seen two more mail pieces from the councilor, one with the screaming headline: "Sometimes it's right to be against something."

Harris, who was fined $2500 for campaign violations, has fought to rebound from the political grave the intelligentsia had placed him in. That fight, combined with ABQ's political DNA, could make a difference.

Not to mention that Harris is spending a heck of a lot of money so he can finish the four year term he was elected to in '05. Looking at election records, we found that Harris has raised about $48,000 for this recall and spent nearly $47,000. The report says attorney Harris made a contribution to himself of $20,000. He received $5,000 from AFSCME. The labor union usually supports Dems, but in this case they don't want Mayor Marty to get more power. If Harris is recalled, AFSCME which has rocky relations with His Honor, would see him pick Harris' replacement.

For what it's worth, the ABQ Tribune, Journal and the Alibi newspapers have all taken Harris'
side in the recall battle.

PAULETTE RETURNS

We hadn't heard much lately from Paulette de' Pascal, challenger to incumbent District 4 Councilor Brad Winter. But that changed Sunday when she fired off a final hours news release demanding an apology from Winter for what he says on the flyer posted here. (Click on it to read it.)

"Your mailer says "de'Pascal was even accused of embezzlement by her employer for allegedly emptying the company's bank accounts." I was sued by my "husband" for work I did for our family's dental practice. Since Brad Winter has memorized my divorce papers, he should know that. Unfortunately, this isn't the only mistake his investigators have made helping him put together his misleading mailers, and "I call on Brad Winter to apologize...I've taken a lot of hits from him during this campaign, and I've done it like a man. Now it's his turn."

Paulette titled her release, "Honey Bee Stings Back." If she's elected, will she sport one of those retro "beehive" hair-do's? And what about Brad? Does he have a honey-do list ready if he is re-elected?

IS PAUL REALLY DEAD?

Some think that Kevin Wilson has come up with the coolest political flyer this city election season. The council District 6 candidate does this take-off on the cover of the Beatles Album "Abbey Road." Of course, if you are of the Pearl Jam generation or in with the Beyonce crowd, a Beatles reference may not do it for you. But for the aging liberal boomers of District 6 as well as the Nob Hill cafe crowd, Republican Wilson hopes to make some inroads with his Abbey Road.

OOPS, HE DID IT AGAIN

It seems my favorite mistakes around this place includes repeatedly identifying ABQ City Councilor Ken Sanchez as a certified public accountant (He isn't), actually believing everything I am told about former Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos and, last but not least, constantly misidentifying Conservation Voters New Mexico by another name, even though they have been a sponsor of this site for several years.

I did it again last week when posting a city council flyer produced by CVNM, so I am now subjecting myself to the traditional punishment of ten lashes with a wet noodle to be administered by CVNM honcho Sandy Buffett. And let me repeat: It is the Conservation Voters New Mexico. Even Ken Sanchez and Steve Gallegos know that. OK. Bring on that noodle.

ELECTION ACTION

Here's my game plan for Election ‘07 coverage. Join me today at 5 p.m. for our Election Eve Special on KANW 89.1 FM as I sit down with experts Erik Siemers of the ABQ Tribune, Democrat Terry Brunner and others to analyze the races and make these fellas make some predictions.

Tuesday we will be here with our regular blog keeping you up to date on last minute developments., Later in he afternoon I will head back over to KANW to kick-off our exclusive live Election Night coverage. That starts at 6:30 p.m. Lenton Malry will be back with us with us and have early results. State Rep. Larry Larrañaga will also be on hand, along with Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and others. If you’re out of listening range, you can listen to both of our KANW broadcasts at the station’s Web site.

Wednesday morning I’ll have post-election analysis and news for you at 9 a.m. on the state's largest radio station, 770 KKOB-AM. I'll be with host Bob Clark for the hour and we are sure to be kickin' it.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Big Bill raised $5.2 million in the third quarter. Here's the latest on that.

We hope you can be with us for all the fun and excitement as we help bring home another ABQ election. Thanks to New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction for helping to make possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author