Pearce and Wilson
Before the kids go trick or treating, we should know whether we'll have an historic primary fight for the 2008 Republican US senate nomination. GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce has told the D.C. insider publication "Congress Daily" he will take two weeks to mull over whether to join ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in seeking the right to succeed Pete Domenici, the state's longest ever serving senator who announced his retirement last Thursday, setting off political pandemonium never before seen in the history of New Mexico politics.

Since Heather announced her senate candidacy 24 hours after Pete's good-bye, speculation has centered on Pearce and how long he would keep the ball in the air. Conjecture here Thursday said that he could go as long as January before deciding so he could get a handle on whether Democratic Guv Big Bill Richardson would join the senate battle if his Prez bid sputtered. But the Congress Daily interview indicates otherwise.

Read this and read this closely:

Pearce said he would spend the next two weeks considering whether to challenge Wilson in the GOP primary.

"It's just a gut check. We'll listen to everyone," Pearce said, noting that the decision comes down to one thing: "Do you have the heart for the fight?"

He added that he has been discussing his political future with his wife and family, staff and supporters. He also..predicted he and Wilson would have a civil discourse if he runs.

"Each of us will talk about our pluses," he said.

He described his leadership style as inclusive, allowing him to appeal to the broader electorate.

"I'm very conservative, but I'm not limited," he said.

Wow! Is that Pearce actually looking like he's ready to announce for the GOP nomination and also preparing to veer to the center for a general election contest? Sure does. Trouble is there are a lot of conservative votes (think the Iraq war) that will get in the way of him moving the steering wheel. But that's a November issue, not a primary one where the R's like their red meat rare and bloody--Pearce style.

PEARCE'S TIMING

Pearce's interview will dampen speculation, but not extinguish it entirely, that he could keep his exploratory committee going longer than a couple of weeks. But a late entry with Heather already pounding the pavement could have a downside, reports one Potomac Alligator.

"You can't wait until the end of January on a what if. There's a lot of NM and national players that would back Steve but at some point soon they will feel forced to align with Heather if the alternative is not announced. Lots of people holding their cards but you know how it works, those that align early are remembered and those that don't aren't. Nobody ever wants to be left behind."

Meanwhile, Heather is on the move, too. Congress Daily reports former US House Speaker Hastert will hold a D.C. fundraiser for her and reports have Vice-President Cheney attending a D.C. fundraiser for her as well. That is a play for conservative support and keeps the pressure on Pearce, but it probably doesn't scare him. Sources close to the Pearce camp say the Cheney event was planned weeks ago and has nothing to do with the Veep showing a favorite in any Pearce-Wilson contest.

The Wilson camp is trying to spin that the current GOP establishment is behind Heather, but if Pearce runs they could have an insurgency on their hands that will rob them, their consultants and their favored lobbyists of power and position.

DEEP INSIDER INFO AND ANALYSIS

Being a fiscal conservative, it isn't surprising that Pearce would not like to have to dip into his sizable pocketbook to finance a senate run. The Alligators checking in here said Pearce was quietly putting out feelers to hire an ABQ based fundraiser, sending speculation into a fever-pitch that he is getting closer to running. As of the end of September, Pearce has about $600,000 in the bank; Heather about $750,000. Estimated cost of a primary battle could be in the $1.5 to $2 million range.

Our Capitol Hill operatives also report GOP House leader Boehner and GOP Congressional Campaign Committee head Cole are not encouraging Pearce to go for the senate. They fear, like many NM R's, a GOP rout that could leave the state with an all Dem congressional delegation. Keeping Pearce in place protects at least one House seat in the event of a Democratic Tsunami.

But Pearce, who my pros say would start as the favorite in the primary, seems to be inching in the opposite direction, forcing Wilson's hand.

"Heather must keep all the pressure she can on Steve to keep him out. She can't let up. Showing him the money is one way; getting solid commitments is the other. As you have reported, Pearce has a more than decent chance of winning a Republican primary featuring a heavy turnout of conservatives. She is starting her effort ot peel them away," commented another analyst,

Polls of GOP primary voters may not detect the conservative current beneath the political surface that would make a Pearce victory possible.

Another Pearce hole card is his money and the conservative support he can call on to reshape the race at a moments notice, ala Barry Goldwater. That may not be a winning recipe for a general election, but for a primary it would be potent.

If Pearce is serious. He must not hesitate. He must be prepared, if necessary, to write the check, and take the offensive.

Polling and praying are now at the top of the agenda for both Steve and Heather as they face the days that will shape the rest of their lives, and have no small impact on those in the state they serve.

DEALING WITH THE DEMS

In Donkey Land, the word was still whether Light Guv Diane Denish would take the mother of all gambles and join arch-rival ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez in a race for the Dem senate nod. The speculation was driving the Chavezistas crazy as polling shows she wins such a battle. They are also hearing that that Santa Fe's Don Wiviott, who appeals to liberals, would get out of the senate race if Lady Di decided to don the crown. Don has said he is in to stay, but anything can and will happen when you enter uncharted waters.

Chavez jumped quickly into the senate race, not waiting for polling or for the counsel of the Dem heavies in Washington who wanted to have input. Now that he is in, he can only spend time in the sweat box wondering what Diane will do, and perhaps later on, Big Bill. Denish could drag out her decision, like Pearce with Heather, inflicting further pain on her rival. But she is much too nice to do that. Isn't she?

PATSY PASSES

I caught up with former NM Attorney General Patricia Madrid Thursday as she was boarding a plane in Denver headed for ABQ and then on to see her mom and dad in Las Cruces.

Madrid told me she definitely will not seek the 2008 Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat, but she left the door open a crack for a run at the senate seat.

She will talk about it with her parents in Las Cruces, but is enjoying a new high- powered legal job and her time with husband Michael Messina. She has done polling, but is not sharing it yet.

MICHELLE'S MOVE

The Madrid news was good news indeed for the latest entrant into the Dem race for the ABQ congressional seat, former Big Bill Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham. So far, She is the only female and Hispanic in the race, joining ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich and attorney Jon Adams.

She made a good impression on the reporters that I spoke with who covered her afternoon announcement attended by about 60 supporters. She is 47, photogenic and a definite threat to early starter Heinrich who reported yesterday that he has about $200,000 in cash on hand, a respectable amount, but definitely not enough to scare anyone with determination.

Can Lujan Grisham, a native New Mexican, appeal to South Valley Hispanics? She started a play for the large Democratic female vote Thursday citing her concern that domestic issues such as health care and the needs of seniors are being neglected because of the all consuming Iraq war.

Attorney Lujan Grisham is already being criticized for micromanaging the Health department, but it's unclear how big a deal that will be in a congressional race in which how you vote and how you debate are much more of a litmus test than how you manage personnel.

And how about prominent Republican Edward Lujan sitting on the podium with Michelle? He's the brother of former GOP NM Congressman Manuel Lujan and a well-known businessman and community philanthropist. The Lujan's are cousins to Michelle on her mother's side. Lujan Grisham told me Edward Lujan was there as part of her family's support and has not offered an explicit public endorsement, but his presence spoke volumes.

Longtime Alligators were quick to point out that Edward ran for the ABQ US House seat in 1988 when it was vacated by brother Manuel. Edward lost the GOP nomination that year to Steve Schiff. Lujan Grisham will use her Lujan connection to appeal to Hispanic voters and also as a means to persuade Dems that she can appeal to moderate Republicans in a general election.

Remember, ABQ has had a female congresswoman for nearly ten years and it was an Hispanic woman, Patricia Madrid, who nearly toppled incumbent Heather Wilson in '06.

Yes, questions remain about Lujan Grisham's ability to raise money and her campaign experience, but her foes aren't brimming with cash and experience either.

What this means is that there is no front runner yet in the Democratic race to replace Heather Wilson. Don't touch that dial.

LEWIS LEAVES

I hope James B. Lewis sticks to his decision to not seek the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat. Now, I have nothing against James--I've know the state Treasurer for years--but when you see this reader's e-mail you will understand my position.

"Joe, I owe you lunch! James B. Lewis called a few minutes ago to tell me that he would not be a candidate for the open congressional seat."

Yes, I bet James would not get in, and it appears I am in for a nice plate full of enchiladas at the Barelas Coffee House for my daring wager. So James, rest assured, you did the right thing. So don't go changin'.

Waitress, could I have some sopaipillas too?

A WIRTHY BATTLE

A worthy battle is shaping up in State Senate District 25 in Santa Fe. Dem State Rep. Peter Wirth says he will try to move up now that Senator Grubesic has announced he will not seek another term. Attorney Brian Egolf is also seeking the Democratic nomination and he welcomed Wirth into the race by saying he looks forward to a "spirited debate."

That will happen. Insider Dems say both these guys are "Grade A' candidates. And there could be more. I don't see a Hispanic name on that list yet.

MORE OPINIONS

What if Mayor Marty gets himself elected to the US senate? Who becomes mayor? The ABQ Tribune's Gene Grant points out it would be whoever is city council president on December 1, 2008, and that could cause a lot of hysterics. And if 2008 is a big Dem year, what is the future of the state GOP? Heath Haussamen, also writing in the Trib, kicks that can around.

The political events since last week have been so earth shaking that the New Mexican's Steve Terrell says reporters and bloggers risk running out of superlatives.

What do you mean, Steve?

The pandemonium, mayhem and chaos that has engulfed state politics is sure to be followed by tumult, confusion, commotion and a big hubbub. An uproar is predicted after further turmoil and anarchy.

There, that ought to last you guys a while.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Many of you have emailed saying that we're probably having the time of our life blogging the aforementioned political pandemonium. Of course, we are. But the candidates are also enjoying themselves, at least some of the time as they play cat and mouse with the pundits and bloggers.

For example, I emailed Light Guv Denish asking for a timetable on when she might announce her intentions for the open US Senate seat. I joked that I would like to know because I was planning a trip to Paris. Her response?

"When do you leave?"

Well, I set myself up for that one and had my timetable probe deep sixed. The way New Mexico politics is going, I won't be seeing Paris, Texas in the foreseeable future, never mind Paris, France.

But who needs Paris when you have the fall colors painting our Enchanted Land, not to mention politics for the ages?

If any craziness breaks out today, I will be here for you. Otherwise, see you Monday.

Keep us posted Email your latest news, political gossip and comments.

Home of the exclusives. Home of New Mexico politics. I'm Joe Monahan, reporting from Albuquerque...

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

White announces
GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, the prohibitive favorite to take the 2008 GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat, made progress toward sealing the deal when he made it official Wednesday, but he also handed the Democrats a gift horse when he opined on the unpopular and no-end-in-sight Iraq war, prompting insiders to predict a hard-fought battle for the chair being vacated by Heather Wilson who is seeking the senate seat Pete Domenici is retiring from,.

Here is the money graph that had the D's breathing a sigh of relief, even as they worried about his overal appeal:

"Unfortunately, mistakes have been made by those in Washington. And the Iraqi government has not stepped up like they need to. They must be pushed harder...We all want to bring our troops home. And I will work to do just that. But our troops must return in victory, because Al Qaeda must be denied a sanctuary in Iraq. We can't give terrorists a safe haven to launch attacks against America."

It was White's call for "victory" in a war that polling shows most Americans believe can't be won that Dem consultants will seize upon as they work to distract voters from the crime and public safety issues that break in White's favor.

"He had the opportunity to take a more moderate stance--to call for bringing the troops home in a timely manner. Something along the lines of Senator Domenici's July statement, but when he called for victory that was right-wing boilerplate. The Democrats will work to hang Bush and the war around Darren's neck, and his initial statement improved their chances of doing so," offered one of our Alligators with long congressional experience.

State D's didn't wait long to start the branding. After White's remarks at the ABQ Marriott, party chairman Brian Colón unloaded:

"Darren White served as the 2004 Bernalillo County Chairman for the Bush-Cheney reelection Campaign...White carried water for an administration that has spent half-a-trillion dollars fighting an endless civil war in Iraq that has led to the deaths of 3,800 brave American soldiers. The people of New Mexico have had enough of the failures of the Bush-Cheney Administration and will reject this Bush-Cheney insider..."

The "V" word is inflammatory in the moderate and Democratic dominated ABQ District because it gives no indication of when the war will end. The issue nearly cost R Heather Wilson the seat in '06, until Patricia Madrid's last minute campaign flub.

THE WHITE FILE

White, a native of New York, has been in NM law enforcement for 20 years, starting with the ABQ police department and becoming sheriff in 2002. He started out as a member of the Houston police department and also held down a job as an ABQ TV news reporter. In addition, he is an Army veteran, a strong selling point in the district. He has a reputation for integrity, has an affable personality, is a hard worker and knows how to handle the media.

White entered the public consciousness of most New Mexicans when he was named head of the NM Department of Public Safety by GOP Governor Johnson, but later resigned when Johnson advocated the legalization of drugs.

White cited the drug controversy which tore the Republican Party apart, saying his resignation supports his reputation as a man of integrity.

He also mentioned the word "independent" several times, as Heather Wilson often does, in an effort to appeal to Democrats as well as Republicans in his own party who are disaffected. Some of them say White believe he has been anointed by the party leadership, a particular sore point with State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones who has toyed with getting in the race and says Republicans should not be denied a choice.

White's management of the sheriff's department will also be a focus of the anti-White forces, as well as the burgeoning crime rate in the county. There is also a psychological hurdle for Sheriff White if he makes it to the fall classic. Will voters go for promoting a sheriff, a relatively low-elected office, to the much higher terrain occupied by a congressman? And can White articulate his stands on a wide range of issues, not just crime and punishment? We shall see.

But for now formidable and firm opposition to White's nomination has not yet surfaced. Arnold-Jones and State Senator Mark Boitano are both looking at the race, but money is a major obstacle. State Senator Joe Carraro is circulating word that he may get in the race. But White has the support of the GOP establishment who have been positioning him for this moment.

Still, Carraro hit White for his Iraq stance Wednesday saying Republicans should be looking for leaders who can get America out of Iraq. "Just what is meant by victory? What exactly is that? We need a diplomatic plan to end this war and get our troops home," the ABQ West side senator argued.

While the R's have held the ABQ seat since its creation in 1968, it is not a birthright. With the state of the nation being what it is the local lawman who hopes to advance is already finding that enforcing law and order is much more black and white than the nuances involved in the tricky and treacherous politics of New Mexico's First Congressional District.

THE DEMS DANCE

While White was tossing the proverbial hat into the ring, former Big Bill cabinet secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham was preparing to throw her bonnet into the Democratic race. She confirmed our Alligator report from last week that she will announce her candidacy for the ABQ seat today, joining City Councilor Martin Heinrich and attorney Jon Adams on the campaign trail. State Treasurer James B. Lewis is also about to make a final decision. 2006 Dem standard-bearer Patsy Madrid also will be heard from. After all that's done we will have the main field, unless we get a wealthy businessman or woman to come forward.

Political newcomer Lujan Grisham, an attorney, will be challenged to raise enough money to stay in the race before the mid-March pre-primary convention. Heinrich has raised about $300,000. She said former state Dem Party chairman John Wertheim, himself a one time congressional candidate, will be one of the co-chairs of her money committee. Wertheim's wife, Bianca, is now working for the ABQ Mayor Chavez administration.

ABQ Dem State Rep, Al Park called in Wednesday to say he has decided not to get in the congressional battle because of "family considerations." In other words, there may be some planning for some "little Al's." It also means Park gets to do analysis on KANW-FM with us on Primary Election Night '08. With that kind of future, who needs a lousy seat in the US House of Representatives?

Unlike the R nomination race, the Dem one is still too much of a jumble to designate front runners. Let's wait until all those sombreros are in the ring.

THE TORTURE CHAMBER

Welcome to Steve Pearce's torture chamber. We're only half kidding. The decision by the southern NM GOP congressman to form an exploratory committee to consider his position for the GOP nod for the open US Senate seat has candidate Heather Wilson wondering just how long this Pearce power play is going to last. We can't say, but we can tell you about the latest scenario.

Top political minds in Washington and elsewhere inform us that Pearce might consider keeping that committee going for a long time--like all the way to January when the first round of Dem presidential primaries are held. Why? Because then Pearce could see how Big Bill is faring and get a better fix on whether the NM Governor will make a run for the seat being left vacant by the retirement of GOP Senator Domenici .

If Bill turns out to have presidential staying power and the NM senate race falls by the wayside, that could pave the path for a Steve primary challenge of Heather. If Bill goes south in Iowa and New Hampshire reviving the chance he would run for senate, Pearce could say, "knock yourself out, Heather, it's all yours." He would then seek reelection to his southern NM House seat.

MORE PLAYING WITH PEARCE

Meantime, Pearce is going to raise money so he can do some senatorial exploring things like conducting polls and consulting consultants. Political operative Josh Giese, however, corrects some information we originally put up about that exploratory committee.

"Pearce has to aggregate the contributions from individuals to each of the committees--his exploratory and his House committee. Any donations in excess of $2,300 would have to be refunded. If that wasn't the case, every U.S. House candidate in the country would also run for senate each year and drop out."

As for Heather she is hitting the phones--heavy. But my insiders say some R's are holding back on promising support and money until they figure out where this thing is going. Heather is in more of a money fix than Pearce because if push comes to shove the multimillionaire could tap his own bank account, especially if he knows Big Bill is not going to play.

This could get gruesome. Pearce holding up the flow of money to Heather? That's not torture, that's political hell. But we wouldn't take it too seriously. Our gal Heather has shown she can talk the green off a leaf.

So, Will Pearce run? The above scenario keeping that committee alive is quite clever, if he can stand the pressure to stop torturing Heather. An Alligator wondered aloud Wednesday whether Pearce hasn't already heard from President Bush or VP Cheney whose Republican National Committee is known to be in Heather's corner. We wonder too.

TRIBUNE REVIVAL?

Former political operative Tom Carroll, now a honcho with DW Turner PR in ABQ, called in from New York City to tell us of the news that he and Doug Turner have formed an investors group to ponder a purchase of the ABQ Tribune. The newspaper announced it will be going out of business soon unless a buyer is found. The afternoon daily's circulation has plunged to around 10,000.

Carroll and Turner are both Republicans. Would they start a local version of the conservative Washington Times, and if it doesn't work out, maybe the investor group could finance a congressional run by the thirtysomething Turner? If they like gambling, either option would get the adrenaline pumping.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Some of our emailers are crying in their beer that we haven't mentioned controversial State Rep. Dan Foley of Roswell as a possible GOP contender for Pearce's congressional seat if Pearce were to give it up to run for senate. The beer is now tear free: Foley for Congress! Now it's really getting wild...

This is the home of the exclusives and the home of New Mexico politics. Thanks to Mark Bralley for the photos. I’m Joe Monahan reporting from Albuquerque..Email your news and comments

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Steve & Heather
Steve Pearce is giving them something to think about and then some. The GOP southern NM Congressman, in a move described variously as "ingenious" and "savvy," leaked word Tuesday night that he will form an "exploratory committee" as he continues to weigh an '08 run for the Republican nomination for the US senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici and coveted by the already announced ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson.

"Pearce's move puts the Republican senate race on ice, and it freezes the jockeying for the southern congressional seat, too. It is an ingenious move. He will benefit from the continued guessing game on whether he will eventually get in the race. It sends a message to his district that he is a player and that this nomination is not Heather's to have simply for the asking," analyzed Dem pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides.

Rumors floated around the Internet Tuesday that Pearce would get in the race within hours, but my Alligators said something else was brewing. They told me that Pearce, 60, was in the field polling Tuesday night and wanted to take a look at numbers matching him up with Heather. An exploratory committee will give him time to consider the results, see if he can collect cash, and test support in a state Republican party that is divided over who should be their nominee.

INSIDE THE GOP SPLIT

That division is symbolized by the infighting over the possible senate candidacy of GOP state Land Commissioner Pat Lyons. The pros tell me in a three way race Lyons could split conservative votes with Pearce, handing the nomination to Wilson. Without Lyons, my experts, who have pored over the numbers, think the conservative Pearce conceivably could beat the 46 year old Wilson on the strength of blowout victories in the SE counties, San Juan county and by holding her totals down in Albuquerque where not all R's appear united behind her. But a united ABQ GOP behind Heather would mean the end of Pearce.

Some supporters of Pearce are claiming Lyons is a stalking horse for the faction of the Republican Party represented by lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett and Chairman Allen Weh, as well as operatives with the Republican National Committee. They claim Lyons knows he can't win and is being used to pressure Pearce into abandoning the race.

Weh was recently challenged for the chairmanship by rural R's partial to Pearce. There was also a fight for the GOP Bernalillo county chairmanship recently that insider R's reported showcased the division between Pearce and Wilson supporters.

Barnett fielded primary candidates against other Republicans in 2004 and has been a longtime GOP player with connections to the Bush White House and outgoing Senator Domenici. He was involved in the ouster of Republican US attorney David Iglesias. Weh is a loyal Wilson supporter. She was instrumental in placing him in the chairmanship.

Some of Pearce's supporters are speculating that Pearce could turn Lyons to his side and keep him out of the senate race in exchange for supporting Lyons for Pearce's House seat. Lyons doesn't live in the district, but is a rural New Mexican who could make it fit.

None of our top analysts believe Lyons can win the Senate nod on his own, but right now he is in a prime position to get what he can from either the Wilson or Pearce camps for a pledge to either get in or get out. Lyons' supporters say the speculation is all balderdash; that he believes Wilson in particular is a weak candidate and he thinks he can beat her and that's why he is considering a run, not to carry water for anyone.

SHOW ME THE MONEY

Pearce is a wealthy former oil executive, with a net worth variously estimated from $5 million to $25 million. He could self-finance his campaign but friends say he is not of a mind to, although he could come with start up money.

CAN PEARCE WIN?

Pearce appears to be serious about considering the senate run, but he is checking his ego at the door. The SurveyUSA poll numbers this week show him losing a senate race to Governor Big Bill in a landslide. But the numbers do say he could beat ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez.

If Bill's Prez campaign sputters, he could decide to enter the race and either Wilson or Pearce would likely be doomed. Pearce has to bet Bill won't get in. He also has to believe that Democrats, including those in the camp of newly minted senate candidate Marty Chavez who think he would be a much easier candidate to defeat than Wilson, have it all wrong.

"He is conservative. He can be portrayed as an extremist. New Mexico does not have a history of sending conservatives to the senate," argued Dem Pavlides. "This is a very difficult decision."

Reflecting that difficulty, Washington and New Mexico Alligators we interviewed were torn down the middle on whether Pearce is only making a move to strengthen his statewide reputation, or whether he will actually challenge Wilson and engage in an historic battle for the heart and soul of the NM GOP.

The Congressman, who makes his home in Hobbs, will apparently have time to assess the options assuming he keeps the exploratory committee open for more than a couple of days. Most observers think he will keep the suspense going for at least a couple of weeks. That's fine with us and other excited politics watchers, but it's pure torture for Heather Wilson.

ALL DRESSED UP AND NOWHERE TO GO

In the event Pearce vacates the southern seat, look for Democratic Public Regulation Commissioner Sandy Jones to give the race a serious look as well as Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes. Al Kissling and Bill McCamley are already running, and if Steve goes the list could grow even longer. But, as we are fond of pointing out, many candidates could fold at the March 15 pre-primary convention where a candidate is required to get 20% of the vote to make it on the June primacy ballot. If he or she does not, it's game over.

MARTY VERSUS HEATHER

If Pearce doesn't get in and Diane Denish and Big Bill also stay on the sidelines, then the odds dictate that ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, 55, and Heather Wilson will face off for the New Mexico senate seat. If you're keeping score on that basis, it's Marty 1 and Heather 0.

Chavez made his formal entry into the race Tuesday morning, following Heather's hasty announcement on Friday. The time Chavez had to put his together showed. His speech, peppered with anti-Iraq war references, offered base Democrats some meat, in contrast with Wilson who made very general remarks amid signs printed for her last House campaign, not a senate run. In contrast, Chavez unveiled a new senate logo, Web site and executed a media plan that had him doing more than two dozen local and national interviews.

But if Marty and Heather are to be our warriors this will be one long epic and dirty battle. State Republicans didn't even give Chavez the traditional courtesy of announcing his candidacy without interference. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson says they were passing out anti-Marty bullet points at his announcement at ABQ's Eclipse Aviation even as he spoke. If the R’s want to create sympathy for Marty, that's one way of doing it. How about the GOP puts up a new billboard: “New Consultants--Badly Needed."

THE CHAVEZ PROBLEM

Marty's problems with a small radical wing of the GOP is not going to be his major problem, at least not right now. It is with the liberal wing of his own party. "The most important number in the SurveyUSA poll is that 25% of liberal Dems are supporting Wilson in a race against Chavez. He gets 65%. He must increase that number, " argued pollster Pavlides.

Chavez did not offer any specifics to me Tuesday night on how he plans to win over the progressive wing, He said there has been a lot of "miscommunication." One thing he has going for him is that many enviros believe he will vote with them if he wins the senate seat.

"We believe he will vote like Senator Bingaman, so the more he talks about national issues, the better he will be received," one leading Santa Fe environmental activist told me.

Another analyst told me: "Governor Richardson is pro-business; Marty is pro-developer. That's the difference. He has to reprove his environmental credentials because of his incessant push for bridges over the Rio Grande and a road through the Petroglyphs, among other things," He said.

Beyond that, Chavez will have to raise millions of dollars. Heather Wilson told KKOB-AM radio's Peter St. Cyr Tuesday that she believes the Senate race--primary and general--will cost an astounding $10 million.

Chavez told me that former NM Dem Party chairman and longtime Dem fundraiser
Jamie Koch, who is also chair of the UNM Board of Regents, has agreed to co-chair his senate finance committee.

Koch is also a finance heavy for Diane Denish which the Chavez camp was pleased to point out. They believe this is another sign that they think Di is not about to join the Dem senate fray. But after watching the Machiavellian maneuvers of Steve Pearce, maybe Di will open an "exploratory committee" of her own. That would sure be a feather tickling Marty's feet.

Chavez is not exploring. He's in, and even had a few butterflies as he made his debut as a senate contender. "I was a bit nervous. After all, this is the United States Senate," he told me. Yes, it is, But if you listen to Big Bill, caught up in the heat of a Presidential campaign, you would think it was equivalent to the local Kiwanis club. But it may look better to him in the aftermath of the Iowa results. Or maybe not.

THE BOTTOM LINES
Bloggin' On TV
Whether a bloody GOP senate battle develops is yet to be resolved, but certainly it would help the Dems, who look as if they will avoid that fate unless Denish does the unexpected and risks the Guv's chair for a senate bid...If elected, Chavez would be the first Hispanic NM Senator since Joe Montoya who was defeated for reelection in 1976....If Pearce fights it out for the US Senate with Heather and both their House seats go Democratic and the Dems also take the Domenici Senate seat, the five member NM congressional delegation would go all Dem. The last time it belonged to one party was back in 1981-'82, says one former Capitol Hill resident. (That's me.)

The last Chavez to serve NM in the US Senate was Senator Dennis Chavez who, like Marty Chavez, was a graduate of Georgetown University...

I talked with The Politico about our wild US senate race. It's good stuff from top writers.

Insiders say before entering the senate fray, Mayor Chavez held a meeting with his department directors and told them "not to do anything stupid" while he was gone. Does that include sighing in relief that the boss is hardly around anymore?...

Can you believe all the politics? And the exclusives these Alligators keep coming with! Let's keep it going. Email your news and comments to the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Hints of desperation started to surface in the upper tiers of the New Mexico Democratic Party Monday with the release of the first public poll in the '08 US Senate race showing ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez trailing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson 48% to 44% and the still unavailable Big Bill crushing all comers in a mock match-up. Meanwhile, the survey showed GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce performing much better against Chavez than Wilson--56% to 35% in a mock-up race--encouraging his supporters to lobby him to gamble and give up his seat and challenge Wilson for the GOP nomination.

I broke the exclusive news of the poll on our blog Monday and interviewed with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson.

"Everyone knows this is a swing state, but a poll with Wilson ahead even after the US attorney scandal, the Iraq war and her ties to the most unpopular President in a generation set a lot of us back on our heels. She is damaged goods, but Chavez appears even more damaged. If they are the eventual nominees, the race will be very bloody and very close. This poll will only increase the pressure on Governor Richardson to get in the race if his presidential campaign doesn't get off the ground in January," offered one of our Alligators.

The Governor's numbers in the poll of 514 registered voters conducted this past Saturday and Sunday by automatic phone calling, set off a frenzy among Democrats who have been waiting over 35 years to take back the Domenici seat back. In the mock-up, Richardson crushes Wilson 62% to 35% and wastes Pearce 60% to 36%. Margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%.

"This is as close as you can get to certainty. These numbers are awesome. Bill can say he is not running for senate, and I won't argue with him, but this display of raw strength will have Democrats here and across the country clamoring for him to get in if and when the time comes," declared an activist Dem.

It's that contrast that tarnishes Chavez on his big announcement day. The ABQ Mayor can beat Wilson, but unlike Bill, he will have to heal the terrible relationship he has with the party's important left-wing and environment community. Chavez's problem is weak polling with Dems. His Hispanic numbers are not what they should be either. Wilson needs work with independent voters.

THE GUY ALREADY IN

The one candidate already in the race, Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott, made sure those liberal voters were aware that Chavez would not be sending him packing and in an email to supporters he took an indirect slap at the Mayor.

"Let me be clear: I am in this race to win..When I made a commitment to run for the U.S. Senate, I didn't accept the challenge because it would be easy or because of 'political' considerations....When no one else was willing to take on Senator Domenici, I was committed, and, today, I remain committed, " Wiviott said.

The political newcomer is predictably trounced by 25% in the polling match-up against Pearce. He loses by 17% to Wilson.

ROMANCING THE LADY
Denish (N. Mexican)
The boomlet to get Light Guv Diane Denish in the race, already a surrealistic scenario as she has never been better positioned for the governorship, grew downright bizarre as the polling numbers hit the streets. We're told one of the arguments being used to persuade her to get in the Dem Senate race is how being Governor would actually be a lousy job!

Right. The first female Governor in history and in command of the majority party in the state. What a depressing prospect. Maybe we should send Lady Di some Paxil and petition forms to get signatures for that senate run. But we don't think we'll need to.

Why would she want to roll in the mud with Marty Chavez in a senate primary and spend her days stuck in a dank room with two phones pressed to her ear trying to raise millions for a senate run? Forget the Paxil, it's enough to drive you to the Jack Daniels. Expect a statement of thanks, but no thanks from our Hobbs gal, probably by the end of Friday. Meanwhile, basking in the media sunshine is permissible.

The Light Guv was not included in SurveyUSA's polling match-ups, but she was beating Mayor Marty by 20 points in the ABQ Journal's recent match-up for the 2010 Dem Guv nomination. It's safe to assume she would give Heather and Pearce headaches, if not equal to those induced by Big Bill, certainly strong enough to have them reaching for extra-strength Tylenol.

WE WAIT

So we wait. We wait for Marty to start doing damage repair and for Heather to do the same. (That means they start beating the crap out of each other.) We wait for Steve Pearce to decide if his time is now. Most of all, we wait for January and the conclusion of the first four Presidential primaries to see how Bill performs and how he then views a Senate race, except in his case it wouldn't be a race, but more like a coronation.

Hey, they don't call him King Bill for nothing.

NOT BAD, TOM

Does northern NM Dem US Rep Tom Udall regret ruling out a senate run before the SurveyUSA showed him with impressive numbers, easily beating Republicans Wilson and Pearce in a statewide race? He beats Heather 56% to 38%. And he scores 55% to Pearce's 37%.

Tom lost the open ABQ congressional seat in 1988 to Republican Steve Schiff, so these polling numbers have to be especially gratifying. We see him keeping his promise to stay in his comfortable House seat for years to come, but he might take the poll over to where they laminate mementos at the US Capitol. It would make a nice keepsake. Hey, he might even show it to his daughter, Amanda Cooper, who is a campaign manager for Big Bill. But only if Amanda isn't too busy running a US Senate campaign.

THE WEAK BENCH

One thing we've learned from the epic political events is that the state's political bench is about as deep as Britney Spears thinking on global warming.

The new generation has yet to emerge. "They are risk averse," asserted one thirtysomething watching from the sidelines.

He has a point, but they also are intimidated by the amount of money needed for these congressional deals, and many don't even want to try. Also limiting the number of possibles chasing these once in a lifetime open seats (OK. Maybe twice in a lifetime) is the odds of getting on the June primary ballot.

Under the law, you must win 20% of your party's vote at a mid-March pre-primary convention, If you don't make it there, you don't get on. That means there is only room for three or four serious contenders.

Back in '72, when we had the last open senate seat, we had 32 candidates file. I blogged recently it was 32 GOP candidates, but old timer Hal Hensley now living In Texas emails the complete list and it shows 25 Dem senate candidates and seven R's. Not that we want a repeat of that, but it would be nice if we had more contenders who weren't depleting the stock of Grecian formula at the corner Walgreen's.

TRUDY'S TAKE

I turn the blog floor over to ABQ City Councilor-elect Trudy Jones who says she has a little bone to pick about a recent entry.

"Your statement that I told you that I would support Mayor Chavez on major issues neglected to report my entire response: When asked if I would support legislation by the Mayor, I told you that I would support legislation by the Mayor which I believed in and that I would also support legislation presented by Council that I believed in. That is quite a different statement from saying that I would support the Mayor on “major” issues."

Well, let's wait and see how much she differs with the mayor.

WHO ELSE FOR SENATE?

Martin Chavez has taken a body blow from the initial senate polling, but so has Heather Wilson. But they both remain the front runners for their party's US Senate nominations--by default. Extensive interviews with political sources across the state produced no well-known names poised to enter, excluding of course the aforementioned Denish and Richardson. The best politicos could offer was that a wealthy business type remains a wild card, but none have yet floated their names.

THE BOTTOM LINES

State Treasurer James B. Lewis is working the phones again on the ABQ Congressional seat, now that it has no incumbent. James ran back in 1990, I believe, but lost the Dem nomination then to Rebecca Vigil-Giron...Nothing yet from Michelle Lujan Grisham. I reported that she would get in the Dem ABQ Congressional race this Thursday, but that was before Senator Domenici's retirement announcement. What's up Michelle? Do you want to play, or not?...

ABQ Dem State Rep. Al Park is another possible, Martin Heinrich and attorney Jon Adams are already in. Lobbyist Bryon Paez who was briefly in the race for a while tells me he is not tempted to get back in now that Heather is leaving the seat. "I had my taste of it," he said...

How about Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg taking another look now that Heather is trying to head to higher ground? Kari would have to give up a shot at a third term as DA to do so.

Oh, I almost forgot this one. How about if Big Bill files for the US senate in February, but is then named the Dem nominee for vice-president? No problem. He can run for both, just like Senator Lieberman did with Al Gore in 2000 and Lyndon Johnson with Jack Kennedy in 1960.

One more before we go. How about Diane Denish goes to the US Senate, Big Bill is named to a cabinet post and Secretary of State Mary Herrera becomes Governor of New Mexico! Happy Halloween...

Are we having any fun yet?

Email your news and comments and let's break some more exclusive political stuff right here on the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The first public polling since the political earthquake set off by the retirement announcement of NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici shows that GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce and Democratic Governor Bill Richardson would be the strongest US Senate candidates for their respective parties. On the other hand, the SurveyUSA poll conducted over the weekend using automatic phone calls to New Mexico households, shows GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson defeating Chavez, but losing by a landslide if Big Bill were the Dem nominee.

In a mock match-up, ABQ Mayor Chavez, who will enter the Dem Senate race tomorrow, is defeated by Rep. Wilson 48% to 44%. Wilson, the polls says, would lose the Senate seat 62% to 35% if Big Bill were her Dem opponent. Steve Pearce beats Chavez 56% to 35%, outperforming fellow Republican Wilson. Richardson beats Pearce 60% to 36% in the poll.

Rep. Tom Udall who is not seeking the Domenici senate seat would defeat Wilson 56% to 38%, according to the poll of 514 registered voters.

Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid would run in a near tie with Wilson, said the survey, with Wilson getting 46% and Madrid 45%.

The survey did not include Dem Light Guv Diane Denish who is likely to run for Governor, but is being enticed by the open Domenici seat.

The mock poll match-ups were of registered voters, but adults. SurveyUSA says the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%

I will have more analysis of the poll tonight on KOB-TV, Channel 4 at 6 and 10 p.m with reporter Stuart Dyson and more on this blog as the story develops.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Chavez
Marty Chavez, looking for a quick takeoff and hoping to discourage other major contenders, will formally announce his bid for the 2008 Democratic US Senate nomination Tuesday at 11 a.m. at Eclipse Aviation in ABQ.

The choice of Eclipse, an aircraft manufacturer that Chavez has courted for years and cites as an ABQ business success story, seems, in part, intended to send a warm and fuzzy to the business community and help Chavez with the formidable task of raising the millions of dollars necessary for the run ahead.

"Chavez is the big foot in the race right now. There is no other prominent candidate seeking the nomination. That remains the major threat to him, along with Governor Richardson deciding to join the race if his presidential candidacy sputters in January. The Mayor's choice of a location announcement seems more part of the money game, than vote chasing." Said one of my Alligators.

We might add that the Eclipse backdrop will hold most appeal to conservative Anglo Democrats and Republicans who Chavez believes were key to his 1998 gubernatorial loss. It is not a locale that has any symbolism for Hispanic or liberal Democrats who will dominate the June '08 primary.

I have also learned that Big Bill has communicated with the Mayor, telling him he does not plan to go for the Domenici seat and that "you should run." I am told the message for Chavez was left on an answering machine, as these two power players played political poker at the highest possible level.

"The Chavez camp, like the Heather Wilson camp on the Republican side, have to go ahead and assume Richardson does not end up in the race. The mayor will try to raise big money and create momentum by January so if Richardson does consider a run, it will give him pause as Chavez will already be looking good. But if he isn't, it would make it much easier for Bill to get in," said our veteran Gator.

Not that Richardson would be averse to hurting Marty's feelings. As one of the Senior Alligators (at least 45 years old and 25 years in La Politica) emailed: "I seem to recall Gary King getting into the 2002 Gov's race with promises from Big Bill that he wasn't going to run. The situation was different but don't you think any potential Democratic senate candidate is going to remember that?"

Well, they're sure going to remember it now. King got in the '02 race, but Bill followed and
Gary never even got a spot on that year's primary ballot. Beware the Alligators!

THE CHAVEZ CHALLENGE

Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?

Just last Tuesday the city election results delivered a stinging rebuke to the Mayor who now faces an even stronger veto-proof city council. And in the Sunday Journal the union for city police officers took out a full-page ad criticizing the Mayor over his funding proposals for the department. It's a good time to get out of River City, if you can.

Chavez is hoping for the luck of the draw. No other major contenders coming in and Wiviott holding at 400 grand and not gaining traction. Certainly Light Guv Diane Denish is hoping Mrty's luck holds, as Chavez is the chief obstacle in her way for the 2010 Democratic Guv nomination. However, insiders say Denish is a factor dictating Chavez's early senate entry.

The Chavez camp sees a senate run by Di as a long shot, but she is getting pressure from national Dems to consider the race. By announcing before her, Chavez hopes to preempt a Marty-Di primary battle which she would be positioned to win, according to recent polling.

As for Mayor Marty, his Governor chances are now likely history--either he goes to Washington or he loses. If he goes down, he would stay as mayor until December 1, 2009, but A US senate loss would not be a platform from which to launch a Guv campaign.

Both Chavez and Wilson have put it on the line--Wilson more so--by giving up something to take their shot at taking the Senate prize. That tells us both would not cower when called on to defend our small state's interests in the World's Greatest Deliberative Body. Will others emerge who are equal to the challenge?

SOME POLITICAL POTPOURRI

Check out the Sunday Journal in which Heather Wilson asserts she never, ever has spoken with Senator Domenci about succeeding him in the US Senate. Really? If you believe that one, Steve Pearce isn't bald.

Santa Fe State Senator Grubesic has decided not to seek reelection. One of those seeking to replace the Dem lawmaker has already raised over $80,000, but I keep hearing that Santa Fe Mayor Larry Delgado may get in that race as well...Also, former ABQ City Councilor Eric Griego, who has been telling friends for months that he will challenge ABQ State Senator James Taylor in the June 'o8 primary, is now telling that to news types as well. He is in.

Remember Spiro V? The Republican we told New Mexico about who toyed with the idea of challenging Sen. Pete Domenici for the '08 senate nomination, but then backed off? He's back, and now that Pete is gone he says he wants to get back inthe race.

THE READERS BLOG

Lots of excitement and reaction among our readers to one of the most historic weeks in New Mexico politics as Senator Domenici announces his retirement and Rep. Wilson announces her candidacy to replace him. I'd like to share some of it with you, so let's dip into the e-mail bag...

Anonymous:

At his announcement Senator Domenici did come up to me and touched my hand...his eyes looked like my father's eyes in the last months of his life... I think that his staff is worried about that...how in the world will they handle this in D.C.? Fifteen months is a long time.

Antonio Gomez:

If there is a better place to get complete, detailed, in-depth NM political coverage, I'm not aware of it. Great reporting and analysis. Denish is sure to cut a deal with Marty in the senate race although I think she is the one politician who would really rather be governor than senator. The only question would be whether Marty would make a deal to keep her out of the senate race and then keep his word to stay out of the governor's race.

Lisa Breeden, state office director for NM Senator Pete Domenici:

Thank you for a really beautiful blog (Friday) on the boss. You obviously wrote from the heart. And most believe we old journalists don't have one. But it takes institutional memory and experience to truly understand politics...

Anonymous:

I was listening to the Albuquerque election results on KANW-FM and did not realize how out of touch you and your cronies are...You would not admit you were wrong when you predicted (Councilor) Harris would lose his recall. Then you suggested Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Brasher will return and take the Harris District 9 seat in two years. Are you a fool or a moron? Brasher does not want the seat or he would have taken it two years ago.

Jerry Wright, owner, ABQ's Great American Land & Cattle restaurant:

Big Bill concedes the Prez race after a fourth place finish in New Hampshire, throwing his support to Hillary. He throws his hat in the ring for Senate, displacing Marty and/or Diane. Bill wins over Heather...Then, Bill gets tagged by Prez Hillary for Sec of State, steps down from the Senate, leaving now Guv Denish to appoint Mayor Marty as Senator, and paving the way for her to get elected to the Guv's chair in 2010.

Carol Clark, Los Alamos Monitor:

I just finished reading your Friday write up of the Domenici event. Your lead is so great and I was overwhelmed when you wrote, "The Senator took no questions. He was in the arms of those who will now finally reclaim him from a lifetime on the political stage."

I remember you saying you aren't a particularly good writer when you spoke to the New Mexico Press Women's Association...You're so wrong, Joe. You reek with talent. Thanks for your superb piece on yesterday's historical event.

ANONYMOUS:

Enough already. Domenici's votes have been responsible for thousands of deaths in Iraq.

THEY BLOG SOME MORE


Charles Coutret:

Thanks for all the great reporting. Assuming Hillary’s position continues to strengthen, and assuming that Bill wants the Secretary of State, then Bill’s future is in Hillary’s hands. One phone call from Hillary telling him that she needs another Dem in the Senate and it’s done. I don’t know that the decision is his to make.

Photographer Mark Bralley at 3:00 a.m. Friday when I posted the wrong date on the Domenici retirement piece:

Joe, I'm still with you...It's Friday, not Saturday....

Susan Walton:

Ride 'em cowboy! Some days I am simply proud to have been at school the same time as you, so I got to know you before you became the NM Dean of Politics! (or are you really called an Alligator trainer?)

Valerie Kimble:

You hit the high notes (Friday)--It gave me goose bumps to read about the dementia factor-- truly the end of an era. And you saw it coming from a distance...great reporting job, Monahan.

Michael Folsom on the emergence of Sheriff White as a GOP candidate for the ABQ House seat:

We, meaning the grass roots, have been telling the establishment that this was gonna happen for years. What we, meaning the Democrats, need is a smart, strong willed young female Hispanic. Lets see if one crops up in the next couple of weeks.

Frank Aranda:

You probably receive a million messages like this but I need to add mine to them. I can't tell you how much I appreciate your commentary on the city election and your daily blog. Incredibly fine work.

Andrew Leo Lopez on the loss of the ABQ Mayor's favored council candidates in the city election:

Marty ran for city council and lost!

Matthew Baca:

Hey Joe...your coverage is as insightful as ever. Tuesday night election returns, channel 13 analysis and you still put out over 2000 words that succinctly describe the new political scene...

Bill Naegele on the choices voters have in the ABQ House race to succeed Wilson:

I'm really beginning to miss (former ABQ GOP Congressman) Steve Schiff...

Helen Laura Lopez:

Your analysis (Thursday and Friday) is as good as you have ever done. Very thorough. I have made it recommended reading for my pals outside of NM.

Thanks for the comments. Your continued interest is the fuel that keeps this blog going. Email us anytime.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author