It's a whole new ball game, and there are a lot of new players on the field, so it's no wonder we're seeing some early errors as the candidates try to find their footing amidst the aftershocks of the political earthquake set off by the retirement of NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici. There's not only the race to succeed him but the contests for two US House seats that have opened up as a result of Pete's parting decision as the incumbents try to move up the ladder.

The first display of political nerves came from ABQ GOP US Heather Wilson whose camp was already leaking word of her desire to replace Pete even before Domenici made his retirement official. She made her own candidacy official a mere 24 hours after the Senator gave a poignant speech saying he was retiring for health reasons. Insiders now say that Heather's dash to declare did not go down well with certain members of Pete's family who felt she would have shown more respect by waiting a couple of days.

Whether this is a mistake or not will be debated, but media mavens are taking note that US Rep. Steve Pearce, seeking the GOP Senate nod along with Heather, made his first New Mexico newspaper comments on his soon to be official candidacy not to the state's largest newspaper, the ABQ Journal, but to the much smaller and possibly soon out of business ABQ Tribune.

It's a mistake if you think Pearce should be currying favor with the Journal and its Republican readers, but maybe it's wise if you believe Pearce knows the Journal is likely to endorse Heather in the primary no matter what he does. Whatever the case, the newspapers, like the candidates, are dealing with a whole new set of circumstances.

MARTIN'S MISTAKE

The campaign of ABQ congressional candidate Martin Heinrich is the scene of the first casualty of Campaign '08. Philip Muller, campaign manager for the ABQ city councilor, is out. He left in a dispute over the direction of the campaign, leaving Heinrich to pick up the pieces and find new leadership. Heinrich spent a lot of money on Muller. According to FEC records, the consultant was pulling down $6400 a month.

Well, live and learn, but first pay up. Muller says he walked away from the campaign with a financial settlement.

CAN YOU SPOT THE ERROR?

Michelle Lujan Grisham, also seeking the Dem nomination for the ABQ Congressional seat, gets the photo of her announcement posted on your blog again because of the error it shows. Can you tell what it is?

The photographer Mark Bralley did as well as several emailers. They pointed out that the American flag is incorrectly positioned. They even sent us the U.S. Flag code.

"When displayed either horizontally or vertically against a wall, the union should be uppermost and to the flag’s own right, that is, to the observer’s left. "

Michelle says her rookie error was actually caused by an overeager supporter who hastily applied the flag to the podium.

DARREN'S "VICTORY"

Another early campaign "mistake" that not everyone will agree on is Darren White's call for "victory" in Iraq when declaring his candidacy for the GOP nomination for the ABQ House seat. Polls show Americans aren't buying the traditional notion of victory, so why didn't the Bernalillo County Sheriff describe in his opening statement just what constitutes "victory?"

State GOP Chair Allen Weh, a retired Colonel in the United States Marine Corps Reserve, says the omission was "unfortunate," but explained that Darren was not trying to leave the impression that a "Jeffersonian democracy" would take hold in Iraq, but foresees "a situation that secures the national interests" of the USA. That prompts the #1 question in America: How long will that take?

THE BLOGGERS ERR, TOO

Getting nervous is for the candidates, but we were plenty excited by the grand political events of the past few weeks and made mistakes of our own. We got it wrong on how Michelle Lujan Grisham is related to former GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan and his brother Edward. The Lujan cousin connection comes from her father's side. Her mother's' maiden name was Jackson and she was from Indiana.

Friends and family of Earl Greer, Sierra County GOP chairman, email in to inform that there is a possible Hispanic GOP contender for the southern congressional seat, and it's none other than Earl Greer. "He is a Montoya from his mother's side," wrote one. He added that Greer is "as Hispanic as Bill Richardson" who also has a Hispanic mother and an Anglo father.

Alysha Greer-Smith, Earl's daughter, pointed out that we said Democrat Joseph Cervantes was the only Hispanic candidate looking at the southern race. Will we be hearing from more and just how many limbs of New Mexico's family tree are we going to let fall on us?

Like some of the candidates mistakes, this one is open to judgment. Will turnout in the state GOP primary approach the 38% level we said was a consensus number? We could be high on that. Pollster Brian Sanderoff promises us some further analysis.

We've also flubbed a few issues on campaign finance laws too complicated to explain here. We are somewhat relieved that our experts tell us they are not entirely sure how these new federal laws work either, but we think we'll skate around the topic until we take a brush up course. Maybe we'll learn about it when the candidates start accusing each other of violating the rules which is probably closer than our first snowfall.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We broke the news a couple of months ago that ABQ's Spiro Vassilopoulos, an oil industry investor, was contemplating challenging Pete Domenici in the GOP US Senate primary, so we should let you know that Spiro told us earlier this week that he is not going to run and he endorses Steve Pearce over Heather Wilson. To which Heather might say, " Steve, beware of Greeks bearing gifts...

Email your news, comments and criticisms. We welcome them all.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici's recent retirement announcement has apparently averted an investigation into his conduct surrounding the US Attorney scandal. The Web site "Truthout" is reporting that the Senate Ethics Committee has decided against a probe. Domenici's phone call to then-US attorney David Iglesias asking about the status of a federal investigation into charges of corruption in the construction of the Bernalillo County Metro Court building sparked the calls for a probe, but Truthout reports:

It's unlikely the preliminary investigation will move to the next stage," said one person who works closely with the committee. "The reason? His mental state."

ABQ Congresswoman Wilson also made a phone call. Whether there will be a House ethics investigation remains up in the air.

MORE PETE BEAT

Meantime, Senator Domenici chief of staff Steve Bell is telling the Journal he regrets the primary contest between Wilson and Congressman Steve Pearce saying it will divide the party. But the faction of R's upset with Domenici and Bell say the party was already divided because Domenici and Bell and associates favored particular groups of consultants, candidates and lobbyists.

Some insiders have speculated that Domenici did not want a strong GOP because it would give rise to potential competitors to his leadership,. That may be a stretch, but the Senator's legacy is not going to be enhanced by the nasty divide the party has gone through under his watch in recent years.

Not that the Dems don't tear themselves from limb to limb, too. It's just that they can afford more infighting because there is a a lot more of them and they win most of the elections, despite the fighting. A minority party not unified is doomed to be, well, a minority party.

THE LOW KEY PEARCE

Sticking with his low-key style, NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce sent out this mild missive to friends and supporterss Wednesday, announcing his plans to seek the GOP nomination for the Senate seat.

After talking with family, friends and supporters, Cynthia and I have decided to run for the United States Senate. Although I won't make a formal declaration for some time, we want you to know that we plan to enter the race.

I came to my decision after careful consideration and it was not one that I took lightly. There is still much work to do, but I want you to know that I will make an announcement soon once all the pieces are in place to begin the campaign.

You know me: I will run hard and I will run to win...

Insiders expect an official entry by the conservative lawmaker the first week of November. They tell us he will probably make a several city tour to launch his campaign in which he will be taking on ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson who is also leaving her House seat for a shot at the senate.

FOLEY CASE GETS SPECIAL
Foley
Whether Roswell GOP Sate Rep. Dan Foley will go to trial is now in the hands of a special prosecutor who is a former Lea County district court judge. He says he has no ties to the controversial lawmaker who faces charges of resisting arrest, obstructing an officer and disorderly conduct in connection with an incident at a basketball tournament in which Foley's' son was playing.

The District Attorney for the Roswell area, Terry Haake, sent the controversy to former District Court Judge Gus Gallini (Lea County '87-2002) who says he has no previous ties to Foley.

In his role as special prosecutor Gallini will decide whether the charges against the lawmaker merit going to trial. The Roswell Record reports Foley, 38, and the ex-judge do have some things in common--they are both Republicans and ex-Marines.

As the Roswell Record reports: "The case was dismissed from Municipal Court in July by arresting officers who forwarded it to the district attorney's office for further investigation. It has since become a political hot potato with judges hesitant to get involved.

The case has prompted speculation in Chaves county that Foley could draw an opponent in next year's GOP primary. So far, none has surfaced.

A CHARLIE NOT A CHARLENE

It's a Charlie not a Charlene who will fill out a portion of the term of NM Supreme Court Justice Pamela Minzner. Governor Big Bill Wednesday named ABQ criminal defense attorney Charlie Daniels to fill the seat left vacant by the passing of Justice Pamela Minzner. It appears we are beyond the point where we have "female" seats on the courts. We didn't hear any squealing over the naming of Daniels in that regard who is himself well regarded.

Our legal beagles pinpointed Daniels and ABQ District Court Judge Linda Vanzi as the likeliest winners of the appointment, and they were correct. Vanzi has about 11 years experience as an attorney, just a bit more than the ten years required to serve on the state's high court. Daniels is 64 and has over 30 years of high-profile experience.

Daniels is a Democrat and a Big Bill donor. (He kicked in $2300 for his Prez campaign back in February.) All five positions on the court belong to the D's, but Daniels will have to run in a contested election in 2008. One of our Legal Beagles sent this analysis:

"A strong Hispanic candidate could probably beat Daniels in the Democratic primary but I doubt that happens. No names come to mind."

We'll wait and see on that one. How about the Republicans? They haven't had a seat on the court in years. The odds are still against them, but they are expected to field a contender. E-mail any names bouncing around.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

• ABQ JOURNAL COVERAGE HERE
• LAS CRUCES SUN-NEWS COVERAGE HERE
• SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN & AP COVERAGE HERE
• PEARCE INTERVIEW WITH THE HILL; HOW HE TOLD HEATHER
  

Steve Pearce entered New Mexico's World Series of Political Poker Tuesday, anteing up a secure seat in the US House of Representatives for a seat at the table with Heather Wilson. The forthcoming battle between the two US House members for the Republican nomination for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici will determine who will carry their party's banner into battle against the Democrats in 2008 and also decide the direction of New Mexican Republicanism well into this new century.

The Pearce announcement that he will vacate the southern congressional seat after three terms set off a scramble to succeed him. More details on that in a moment, but first complete coverage of the historic Wilson-Pearce showdown.

The early insider betting was heavy on the Pearce side, with the odds on the 60 year old southern NM congressman sure to come down when Wilson of ABQ rises to the challenge. She has little choice, according to the most astute political minds here and on the banks of the Potomac.

"She needs to put the brakes on Pearce. She starts off in the lead, but only because of her name ID. She is known throughout the state because of her TV campaigns. He is going to slowly but surely overtake her unless she does something to stop him.

"His conservative views are attractive in a primary. Candidates with firmly defined viewpoints win primaries. That's Pearce. Because she has had to please Democrats in her district, Wilson in many ways is an orphan in her own party," analyzed Democratic pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides whose involvement in state politics dates back 35 years.

Longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff also raised the caution flag for Wilson, saying:

"Pearce has been a pretty conservative congressman who represents a conservative district and he could maintain that message through the primary."

HEATHER'S HAND

Wilson, a renowned political fighter who has scored impressive victories in her ABQ congressional district since first taking it in '98 and where Dems outnumber R's by over 30,000, faces perhaps her most daunting political task in getting Republicans to go against their natural instincts and not vote with the most conservative candidate.

"Maybe she moves further to the right to invade his conservative base. Perhaps she also argues that he is outside the mainstream," offered one of our Alligators gaming the race.

But many highly likely voters---right to life advocates, evangelicals and anti-immigration Republicans are going to be difficult, if not impossible, to peel away from Pearce, say top analysts.

They say Pearce will have no trouble turning in a landslide in his southern district. The question is can Heather pull off her own landslide in Bernalillo County and Rio Rancho where about 40% of the June '08 GOP vote will be cast?

Heather appears to need landslide totals in the state's largest county and suburbs because Pearce, an oilman from Hobbs, could be a favorite in the oil and gas region of San Juan County in the Four Corners where there is a large R population. She also faces headwinds elsewhere.

Pearce should have easy pickings on the east side, in Quay, Roosevelt and Curry counties. Heather should be able to battle him in Republican heavy Los Alamos. She also has a good shot at the R's in the Spanish north, but they are few and far between.

If Heather is unable to make inroads in rural NM it will mean an ABQ landslide or bust for her, increasing the odds of a Pearce win, but her supporters argue Heather's dogged determination is her best weapon.

"She has been in the lobster pot many times, crawled out of the boiling water and then dropped the other guy in the pot. Steve has not been in the crucible of combat like her," one Alligator colorfully commented.

EARLY ALARMS

The first inklings that Pearce could make inroads in big Bernalillo County came last December when R's aligned with Pearce supported Fernando C De Baca for re-election as Bernalillo County Republican Chairman. He held off a challenge from pro-Wilson candidate, Mario Burgos.

When Allen Weh was re-elected chairman of the party this year, he had to overcome objections from rural Republicans who charged that the party was too focused on Wilson and not enough on other office seekers, yet another sign of things to come.

IN THE GUTTER?

How negative will the intra-party battle royal get? Most opinion leaders we sought out predicted the race would start off relatively mild, but they worried about it getting personal and inflicting severe damage on both Heather and Steve. That, they fretted, could hand the Senate seat to the Dems in November.

The recent vintage of NM and national consultants has been vicious, running almost exclusively negative campaigns. If they turn on each other in this epic face-off, blood could spill on the rest of the GOP ticket, including ABQ congressional hopeful Darren White and whoever takes the GOP congressional nomination down south.

INSIDE THE DECISION

Insiders say Pearce was deluged with opinion on whether to take the plunge.

"I believe much of his decision came down to timing. This was simply the right time for him." Said one Washington insider familiar with Pearce's thinking.

"There was some discussion that his district could be changed in the redistricting of 2011, making it more difficult for him to to hold the House seat, but the major reasons were distinct. He believes he can win the primary and the November election and has the resources to do it." Said our D.C. Gator.

Those "resources" could total up to $2 million for each of our combatants in the June primary. Our finance sources say Pearce was also influenced to run by lining up support from the Club for Growth, a Republican group that gets involved in GOP primaries and comes down on the side of the conservative.

"They will be able to push large money donors his way. Their main concern is the tax and spend issue, and Pearce has voted the way they like," explained our reliable source.

That raises the question of what exactly will be the big issues in this first-ever primary race between two NM US Reps.

"I don't think Iraq will be as big of a deal as some might expect. I think the tax and spend issue will be the major focus," argued Republican Kurt Lohbeck, in the NM political game since '59.

While Pearce has been more supportive than Wilson of Bush administration policies on the unpopular war, Wilson has also been generally on board with the White House--to her detriment in a general election campaign--but not so much in a Republican primary.

BY THE NUMBERS

NM Republicans total about 354,000 or 33% of the state's 1, 077,000 voters. Anticipated turnout for the Pearce-Wilson contest is about 38% to 40%, or about 135,000. But it could be lower. Television ads will play an important role, but not a supreme one. Direct mail, phone trees, push polling, door-to-door campaigning and other grass roots activities will be critical components in this small turnout, high-stakes event.

Get out the vote efforts will also be key. If there is a closely contested primary to fill Pearce's shoes in the US House, that could boost turnout in his district and to his benefit. On the other hand, if Sheriff White goes unchallenged in the GOP primary for Heather's ABQ House seat, that could be a lost opportunity for her as she might benefit from the increased turnout a contested House primary would bring in her ABQ stronghold.

PILING ON PEARCE

NM Dems released a statement saying Pearce deserves to be fired not promoted because of his support of Bush-Cheney policies. Would he be the weakest candidate against a Democrat in November? Maybe. Maybe not.

If Pearce is locked in on the hard-right and unable to move near the center, pollster Sanderoff says New Mexico's moderate tradition will send Pearce home to Hobbs. Heather, who has already made peace offerings to Dems in the past, could be better positioned to pick up the 25% of the Dems an R contender needs to take a statewide race.

ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez's camp want Pearce as a Senate opponent more than Heather, thinking his conservative reputation will indeed doom him. And Pearce and Wilson both want Marty as their opponent because polling shows they have a decent shot against him. The R's remind everyone Chavez lost the '98 Governor's race to Republican Gary Johnson.

Speaking of Governor, the current one, Big Bill, sent out a teasing news release just 90 minutes or so after Pearce's announcement started moving across computer screens coast to coast. It urged Pearce to override President Bush's veto of the children's health care program--SCHIP--which has become a rallying cry against the President and Republicans. (What will Wilson do? Stay tuned.).

Was this the first shot in a NM US Senate race involving Big Bill? His fan club hoped so, but the answer will remain unknown, at least until late January or February 5th when the Presidential contest and Big Bill's fortunes in it are finally decided.

MADRID'S MOOD

Patricia Madrid played cat and mouse with your blog Tuesday, but we can't blame her much. She had told us last week she had ruled out a run for the ABQ congressional seat. But the former Dem Attorney General told us Tuesday while she has ruled out a run for the Dem Senate nod, she now has changed her mind and wants to leave the door open a crack for a run at the House seat she lost to Heather Wilson by less than an a thousand votes in 2006.

Patsy cited the changing players at the political poker table, calling the situation "fluid." We don't get the impression, however, that she is warming to the idea of another congressional run, but we note the mood change.

THE REPUBLICAN BENCH

The Pearce announcement wasn't a shocker, but neither was it as routine as your morning cup of coffee. It caught many R's off guard, and no big name possible Republican replacements for Pearce immediately popped up. But late Tuesday, several insiders dropped the name of Dona Ana County State Senator and Minority Whip Lee Rawson. Until he says otherwise, his name moves to near top of the list.

Also on that list is Socorro State Rep. Don Tripp, Roswell oilman Phelps Anderson, Sierra County GOP Chairman Earl Greer and restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley. GOP State Reps Gray of Artesia and Bratton of Lea, also heard their names circulating.

Rawson, in real estate in Dona Ana County, has been in the Legislature 20 years. He has the profile for the district where the GOP "has the advantage," said consultant Pavlides.

Does Rawson want out of the Roundhouse and to take a shot at walking through the Rotunda of Capitol Hill? We'll know soon enough.

THE DEM SHAKE-UP
Cervantes
As for the Dems, the chief curiosity is whether Dona Ana County State Rep. Joe Cervantes gets in the Democratic chase for the Pearce House seat. He told me Tuesday he will "consult with advisers and pollsters" today as he weighs his move. He is the cautious sort, but has said previously an open US House seat would draw his attention. He would be the leading and so far only Hispanic in the race.

Former Dona Ana County Commissioner Harry Teague of Hobbs, perhaps getting wind of what Pearce was up to (his family is close to Steve's in Hobbs and he has contributed money to the congressman) announced he will run for the Democratic nomination just before Pearce's decision leaked.

Teague has big oil money, is well connected in the Democratic Party and therefore is an instant player. He joins Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and '06 Dem nominee Al Kissling in the primary contest. In Santa Fe, there were even rumblings that State Sen. John Arthur Smith, who lost to Pearce in '02, was looking at the open seat and the Dem nomination.

Insider Dems in the state's money center in Albuquerque report that McCamley could be hit hardest by the Teague entrance and the possibility of Cervantes coming in.

"Teague will freeze up the money to McCamley from the south and east side. He will try to starve him out of the race. He can't do that with Cervantes who also has business interests and would be expected to self-finance, if he has to. Kissling has no funding, and is now unlikely to make it on the ballot," analyzed our money maven.

ONE SHOT FOR GLORY

Getting on the precious primary ballot. That's the $500,000 or so question. The rules say you must get 20% of the delegate votes at the March pre-primary convention. Cervantes is a lock. Teague looks good if he is serious and spends. McCamley may need to come with more punch to avoid getting sidelined by the party powers who will argue the 29 year old will have another chance someday.

As for the November election, the Cervantes camp is concerned that the district does not set up well for an Hispanic victory. One has never won there. It could be made more Democratic at the 2011 legislative redistricting, but this is an open congressional seat, a near wonder. You delay at your own peril.

Cervantes, from a longtime chile growing family, would be favored in a primary with two Anglo challengers. He can still take it against a single Anglo challenger as the old New Mexico axiom that Hispanics win Democratic primaries has not been revoked. But the main event in November of '08 will be a bear of a contest.

A national Democratic tsunami would probably sweep Cervantes to victory. Without such a wave, resistance to the attorney in "Little Texas" in the east and south could be too rigid for him to overcome.

The GOP certainly hopes for that or a similar scenario. Pearce's gutsy decision to go all in means his party risks having no GOP NM US House members. And if the Senate seat goes D, they would be shut out completely.

PETE'S POSITION

The Pearce camp got cute and are calling themselves "People For Pearce." You know, like "People for Pete." Pete, of course, being US Senator Pete Domenici who has made the slogan famous since serving in the Senate since 1973.

Opinion is divided on whether the ailing Senate legend who announced his retirement and set off the political earthquake that is keeping bloggers and news types in alternate states of euphoria and exhaustion, will endorse Heather Wilson in her race against Pearce.

Such an endorsement could help galvanize support for Heather, but not as much as it did when Pete went for her in the '98 US House GOP primary. Today he is a lame duck.

Domenici may also hesitate if he thinks about when retiring US GOP Rep. Joe Skeen, also suffering from a degenerative disease like Pete, announced in 2002 that he was endorsing Ed Tinsley in a crowded Republican primary. But you don't see any "Congressman Tinsley" in your history books; it's Congressman Pearce.

THESE SPECIAL DAYS

Pete may or may not endorse, but no man can stop the future from being born. You and I are eyewitnesses to the beginnings of a new political era for this great state of ours. As when a child is being born, you are not yet wondering what the babe will weigh or whether it's a boy or a girl, you simply marvel at the miracle of the event.

Democracy is dancing uninhibited--on a crowded floor; the way it was intended, but rarely seen in our lifetimes. Like the birth of a child, it has a miraculous quality. We are free to choose. May it ever be so.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, New Mexico.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

This won't knock your socks off, but for the record, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez is not going to defer to Light Guv Diane Denish in the unlikely event she opts to join him in the race for the Dem nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici.

"Marty will not get out for Diane. He has announced and we believe his chances of beating her for the Senate are much greater than for the Governor's seat (especially if she is the incumbent) so we have made the decision to move forward regardless of her entrance. "

That statement from a Chavez insider who refers to the possibility that Lady Di could become Guv in the event Big Bill departs for bigger pastures. Of course, many of the politicos still think Bill will end up coming back to this pasture to run for that Senate seat. What would Marty do then? And would that the answer knock our socks off?

You heard Dem northern US Rep Tom Udall say he's staying put and not leaving his House seat to seek the Senate job and you heard right. Still, folks want to have fun, so here's the link to the Draft Udall for Senate" site.

What isn't so funny is the $800,000 Udall has in his campaign account after years of weak challengers. And no one has even announced to run against him in '08! He could use that money for a Senate run, but why?

MONEY TALK

Udall was among those reporting their third quarter money totals to the FEC Monday. US Reps Pearce and Wilson already released their general info, and the AP has an overview.

Looking at the specific reports, what stood out was the $15,000 given to Heather Wilson this election cycle by GOP House leader John Boehner's PAC. Now that she's running for Senate, she won't be able to vote for Boehner again, but she will be able to spend the money he sent her way. Hey, isn't Boehner one of the top dogs trying to talk Pearce out of running against Heather for the GOP Senate nomination?

Steve Pearce has some good friends in the Murphy oil family. According to the latest federal report, the Murphy's--and branches of the Roswell family--have so far in this cycle donated in the vicinity of $25,000 to the southern GOP congressman. Pearce can use the money. He is thinking about joining Heather in that race for the GOP US Senate nomination.

THE PEARCE WATCH

My sources late Tuesday were telling us that Pearce's decision could be "very near," with the insiders saying the odds are tilting toward a run. But we are cautious of any predictions as we are dealing in the highest realms of La Politica where nothing is final until the Fat Lady swallows the green chile. Also, the Internet domain name 'pearceforsenate.com' or .org. and several others related are unavailable. Is this getting interesting, or what?

BILL'S BILLFOLD

As for that cash intensive Prez race, Governor Bill reports he raised $5.2 million in the third quarter and finished with nearly $6 million in the bank as of September 30. Sounds pretty good, until you look at Hillary Clinton's pile. She has a stunning $35 million in the bank.

Bill has fired his TV guns early. Take a look at this:

"So far, Romney has placed the most political ads on the air than any candidate, Democrat or Republican. The Nielsen Co., which also monitors advertising, reported Monday that Romney had placed 10,600 television ads from Jan. 1 to Oct. 10. Democrat Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, was second with 5,800 television spots."

What happens when Hill and Obama start spending their millions. it won;t take long for them to pull ahead of the Guv in the TV totals.

ALL ABOARD WITH BILL?

It's been odd to see Big Bill getting criticized in some of the papers for saying he wants to find needed funds for the Rail Runner from the state budget and federal money, instead of from a tax increase. Can the papers and other critics really believe any of us are up for a tax hike as the state has piled up (and spent) hundreds of millions in surplus oil and gas money the past several years? If Bill and the legislators fouled up on figuring how much the Rail Runner cost, let him and them find the cash needed from what's already been collected. So far, that's what the Guv plans. The remaining question: What programs are going to be cut to keep the Rail Runner on track?

SAFE AND NOT SORRY

Where are all the legislators wanting to advance to those prized congressional openings? It seems none of them are willing to give up their Roundhouse slots to take a shot (and a gamble) at the big time.

ABQ GOP State Senators Mark Boitano and Joe Carraro and ABQ GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones are making noise about running for Congress but none of them have said they will give up their legislative seats. Only if they did that would the political community and money donors judge them as serious.

(Arnold-Jones, her friends say, will gather petition signatures to file for her legislative seat, as well as form an exploratory committee for the ABQ US House seat. We presume Carraro and Boitano are doing the same, though not necessarily starting exploratory committees.)

All these lawmakers have told me the issue of raising money for a congressional run will very likely keep them in the Legislature. But the law gives them a month to play around. Play around they will. Seriously run? Not likely.

Filing date for congressional and statewide candidates is February 12. Filing for legislative candidates is March 18. That means a legislator could file petition signatures for Congress and qualify for consideration at his party's March 15 pre-primary convention. If they failed to get 20% of the delegates needed to qualify for the June ballot, or had an otherwise poor showing, they could file on March 18th their previously gathered petitions signatures for their legislative seats.

There is a risk. Unless you are fully secure in your legislative seat, playing around with other offices may draw potential primary rivals who could tell your constituents they would love nothing more than to represent them in the Roundhouse as their current lawmaker may be more interested in another office.

NOT SAFE, AND NOT SORRY

Who among the current crop of congressional candidates, you may wonder, is going all in? Putting it all on the line?

Dem ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich gave up his council seat to run for the ABQ US House seat, 29 year old Bill McCamley has sworn off a run for re-election as a Dona Ana county commissioner to go all in for the Dem nod for the southern congressional seat. And, while technically she still has time to back out, ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson has said she will relinquish her current position for a shot at higher service. Will Steve Pearce join this elite list?

It's no knock against the candidates with fall back positions, but in this era when the safe political option seems to be the popular one, these three exceptions stand out to us, and maybe to some voters as well.

DOUBLE SIDED PARTY

A fundraiser tonight for ABQ GOP State Senator Diane Snyder lists Johnny Cope, well-known Hobbs Democrat and friend of Big Bill, as one of the lead sponsors along with state GOP Chair Allen Weh and Ken Zanagara, former chair of the Bernalillo County R's.

Snyder is unlikely to be challenged in the June '08 GOP primary, but needs to look ahead to next November when she will need Dem support in her NE Heights district. The insiders say it has the potential to be a D pick up. Several Dems, including John Blair, are making plans to run.

The cocktail reception tonight goes for $250 a head and is being held at the Chama River Brewing company which is owned by another Big Bill friend--Gerald Peters.

Will Democrats for Diane be meeting there next?

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pearce & Cheney
The crazy quilt patterns of politics are no better illustrated than by the wooing of Vice-President Dick Cheney by NM US Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Cheney, polling below cellar level, can barely find a welcome mat in his home state of Wyoming, but here in our Enchanted Land a little tussle has actually broken out between Heather and Steve over winning Cheney's love.

Heather appeared to launch a preemptive strike against Pearce for the small, but heavy voting contingent of NM R's who still carry the flame for the Veep by announcing Cheney would be doing a D.C. fundraiser for her. That left the impression that Cheney was endorsing her senate bid. Not so.

Pearce is still weighing whether to get in the race for the 2008 GOP senate nomination while Heather is already in. It turns out that the Cheney fundraiser was set up for Heather's US House re-election bid and well before she became a senate candidate. That was not stated when the "news" was first leaked.

After the report attributed to a "knowledgable source" hit the streets, Heather later explained to the AP that she had asked Cheney if he would still appear at the fundraiser now that she is seeking the Domenici senate seat. He agreed, but did not issue a public endorsement.

Now, sources close to the Pearce camp say they have been assured that the White House will take part in an event for their man featuring the Veep, or maybe even the Prez, thereby leveling the playing field, if there is going to be any playing between our two GOP reps.

Whether the event Cheney does for Pearce will be for a senate run or for his House re-elect is unclear as Steve remains undecided on whether to join Heather in the nomination battle, but this first tussle between the two highlights what's to come if we do have a contested senate primary.

CAMPAIGN CONTEXT

The Cheney tug-of-war also showcases the advantage Heather currently has as the only announced candidate. Pearce is in a defensive posture until he makes a decision. Of course, the irony is lost on no one that self-described "moderate" Republican Heather wants to embrace arch-conservative Cheney. Politics makes strange bedfellows indeed.

Heather's critics say she has been acting a bit spastic. They accuse her of dancing on Senator Domenici's political grave by holding her senate announcement only 24 hours after he announced he would retire, and then launching a missile over the Cheney deal.

After talking with the polling mavens one can understand why Heather is at least nervous, if not spastic. In a head-to-head GOP senate contest with Pearce, she has to worry about an impassioned turnout among southern and eastside conservatives that could offset her advantage in ABQ. Voter motivation is key in primaries and those with the strongest views tend to turn out in the strongest numbers.

Pearce simply appeals more to hard-core conservative Republicans than Wilson because there's no ifs, ands or buts about his orthodoxy. However, to survive in her moderate ABQ district, Heather has had to become a hybrid. Half the time she runs on conservative fuel; the other half she uses "moderate" petrol to keep her campaign car moving.

The effort by Wilson's campaign--or an unauthorized zealous insider--to leave the impression that conservative Cheney was immediately endorsing her candidacy grew out of her perplexing problem with hard-right conservatives. The way the incident came about is also a reminder that it won't only be issues that decide a contested GOP senate primary, but also the character of the candidates and the conduct of their respective campaigns.

IN THE LYONS DEN
Pat Lyons
The threat of a possible third GOP senate candidate---state Land Commissioner Lyons--drew intense interest when he floated the idea because he could draw some of those conservative R's from Pearce, giving Heather a boost. But Lyons' entry is unlikely, according to insiders. Among the roadblocks: Could he muster 20% of the March pre-primary convention vote needed to make it on the June ballot with Pearce and Wilson scrapping for every delegate? And does he want to risk screwing Pearce and the consequences that could result?

Friends of Lyons' say he is ruling out a run for the Pearce House seat if it becomes vacant. Lyons does not live in the district, but he is still legally eligible. They say he is more interested in the '10 Guv's race.

PETE'S POSITION

The Cheney affair may remind some of you of an unprecedented endorsement in a contested GOP race for the US House in 1998. It came from Senator Domenici for Heather Wilson who was seeking the GOP nomination in a multi-candidate field for the US House vacancy created by the death of GOP Congressman Steve Schiff.

Pete's endorsement played a key role in clearing the field for the then unknown Wilson, but it also left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of Republicans that lingers to this day. Now the question is back: Will Pete endorse Heather again, even if Pearce challenges her? And if he did, what impact would it have on the campaign?

PLEADING WITH PEARCE

If Pearce decides against a senate run, he will have a reasonable excuse. As we reported last week, the House GOP leadership is urging him to stay put for fear that his southern seat could go to the Dems, further weakening the party's standing in the lower chamber. The New York Times Sunday came with confirmation:

"Worried about increasing departures, the House leadership has been encouraging Representative Steve Pearce of New Mexico to forgo a run for the Senate and avoid opening a second Republican-held House seat in a state where Democrats are gaining strength."

Whether Pearce will be persuaded by that argument remains to be seen. After all, the R's are already in the minority and very likely to stay that way. If you're going to bolt, the time may be now.

(The Times also hit with a weekend piece on Big Bill's Iowa Prez campaign that details his fight to place third in the Iowa caucuses.)

DEMS WAIT ON DI

Reports from D.C. over the weekend say nothing has changed. National D's are still on an anti-Marty Chavez crusade, convinced he can't take the Domenici seat and working over Light Guv Diane Denish to get in the race for the Dem senate nod and push Marty aside.

If she did enter, would the ABQ mayor give up his just announced bid ? For what? A promise that Lady Di would not run for Guv in 2010 if she lost the senate race? Who would be in charge of enforcing that deal?

All the political pros and Alligators say Diane stays put and waits for the Guv's job. With such unanimity, maybe the opposite happens and she goes the other way. We should know this week.

BIG BILL & THE SUPREMES

Our Legal Beagles check in with the news that today Big Bill will interview the seven finalists for the opening on the NM Supreme Court created by the passing of Justice Pamela Minzner. The Beagles say ABQ District Court Judge Linda Vanzi and ABQ criminal defense attorney Charlie Daniels are two of the top finalists, but the Guv could choose a dark horse. They expect the decision not long after the interview process, possibly this week.

HAPPY DAYS

Here's a deal where everyone walks away happy. Santa Fe attorney Brian Egolf, 31, announced over the weekend that he will drop his bid for the Dem nomination for the state senate seat being vacated by Sen. Grubesic. He has opted instead to run for the state House seat being vacated by Rep. Wirth who is now seeking the Grubesic seat.

That means no Dem fight between Egolf and Wirth. While they no longer have to worry about each other, they still have to worry about other candidates getting into the race for the open seats. Insiders say former Santa Fe Mayor Larry Delgado is finding the Grubesic seek quite tempting.

Egolf, who hails from a well-off family, has raised $85,000--that's for a legislative seat, not a congressional seat. If he wins Wirth's House position, Speaker Ben Lujan will tell him exactly what to do for the first two years.

Why pay $85,000 for that, when your husband or wife will do it for free?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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