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Friday, November 02, 2007

Come On In Tom, The Senate Water Is Fine, But Watch For Alligators, Plus: Diane Says No To Senate Bid, And: Pearce's Radio Buy; Let's Blog This Place! 

Rep. Udall
After a brief lull events are again cascading like a waterfall, sending the New Mexican political community into a frenzy and burning cell phone minutes faster than Al Unser racing at the Indy 500. On Thursday alone, Dem US Congressman Tom Udall said he has renewed his interest in seeking the Dem nomination for US Senate, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish said she will not go for the Senate and Republican Steve Pearce released a radio commercial indirectly jabbing his opponent for the GOP Senate nod, ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson. Also, businessman Ed Tinsley was preparing to become on Monday the first declared Republican candidate for Pearce’s House seat. Let’s go to the action...

The headliner was Udall "reconsidering" a run for the Senate nomination, as the "Anybody but Chavez" movement continued unabated, but the camp of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez made clear Udall or no Udall he is in the race to stay, setting up a potentially bloody intra-party contest.

Udall has not yet pulled the trigger, but he is close. "New Mexicans have urged Tom Udall to reconsider running for the United States Senate, and he's doing just that," spokeswoman Marissa Padilla said. (We analyzed the developments with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson.)

In Washington, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New York Senator Chuck Schumer, all but endorsed Udall or any other Dem over Chavez, saying the committee is not ruling out the possibility of endorsing a Democrat in a contested Senate race. That is rarely done and the possibility drew a sharp rebuke from Chavez's campaign. The race, the campaign said, would "be decided by New Mexicans, not New Yorkers."

Folks, we just checked Ticketmaster and the Udall-Chavez bout is a sell-out.

EXCLUSIVE INSIDER ANALYSIS


Udall would be a very strong candidate for the nomination but victory, if it comes, would not be obtained without a price.

Udall knows he has only so long to toy with the notion. Only minutes after word spread of his renewed interest, the names of at least a dozen northern Dem names were floating as possible successors to the 59 year old congressman. Santa Fe's Don Wiviott was one of them. The current Senate candidate was seen folding his hand if fellow northern liberal Udall gets in and perhaps going for Udall's House seat.

If Tom does go, New Mexico, in 2008, for the first time in its history would have three open US House seats and and open Senate seat. Political junkies were having orgasms over the prospect and TV station managers were drooling over the millions to be spent.

Those not involved in the heat of battle, however, worried that our state now faces the prospect of having all freshman lawmakers in the US House as well as a freshman US Senator. For a state that receives more federal government money per capita than any other, it was not a comforting thought. Udall would be giving up a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee to run. Senator Bingaman would be alone in having significant seniority in the state's delegation.

Udall has $800,000 in the bank he could use for a Senate run, plus internal polling showing he could beat Chavez and win the general election over either Wilson or Pearce. The public SurveyyUSA poll shows him trouncing either of them by 18 points, but that is before the inevitable attacks.

The top insiders say he is leaning towards the run, but he must look deep to see if he has the fire in the belly. Running against Chavez and coming out winning but wounded is the key consideration. He can't dally for long, perhaps a week or so, because the Alligators are lining up in the north ready to start feasting on an open seat. If he keeps them waiting too long, they could start feasting on him.

BILL'S PLACE

Big Bill is still the great hope for the Dems to secure the Senate seat. Udall's daughter, Amanda Cooper, is in the middle of this one as she serves as a deputy campaign manager for Bill and is called on to advise Dad. If Udall goes, a Big Bill entry becomes extremely unlikely. The nagging will finally stop and he can get on with his Prez campaign, but if Udall turns out to have made a false start, Bill is again dragged back into the guessing game. Is Udall throwing off false signals to deflect the Senate buzz surrounding Bill and which is choking the Guv's Prez effort? Unlikely, but in this atmosphere crazier theories are being heard.

DI'S DANCE

While Udall was waltzing onto the dance floor, Light Guv Diane Denish was dancing off, clearing the path for him if he chooses to jump. She will formally announce today that she will not seek the Senate seat, staying squarely focused on the 2010 race for Governor. It was one of the most expected announcements of the season, but with everyone on tippy-toes over everything, the news was greeted with relief that at least one scenario of a thousand was being retired. Di's dance card has been filled by national Dems trying to get her into a potentially ugly race against Mayor Chavez. She was last seen walking into her massage appointment softly muttering, "He's all yours, Tom."

PEARCE STRIKE

Steve Pearce is wasting no time trying to frame his primary battle with Heather Wilson. He released a radio commercial even before he formally announced his run in Hobbs at noon today and at 4 p.m. in ABQ. It's the first paid electronic media of the 2008 US Senate race, coming seven months before the June primary. (Download the spot here.)

Predictably, the southern NM rep portrays himself as the "Consistent Conservative," a jab at Wilson and a play for the more conservative GOP voters expected to be likely primary voters. Here's an excerpt of the 60 second spot voiced by Pearce.

"In Congress I fought to eliminate wasteful spending and worked to lower taxes to help families. I’ve supported reforms to restore trust in America and to make healthcare affordable while opposing big government schemes which promised socialized medicine, even for illegal aliens, at taxpayer expense.

I’ve worked to secure our borders, defend America from terrorists, and have been proud to stand up for our traditional New Mexico values. We need consistent conservative leadership in Washington . Leadership guided not by the latest opinion polls, but by core conservative New Mexico values."


The tag line is "consistent conservative leadership we can trust," hammering home the contrast with self-described "moderate" Republican Wilson.

EVEN MORE POLITICS

Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley has made his final decision, but will milk it for all it is worth and announce Monday that he will soon formally announce for the GOP nomination for the Pearce House seat, say supporters. The Lincoln County rancher isn't going to be alone for long. Also planning to get in the race is 28 year old Bob Cornelius, the executive director of the Bernalillo County GOP. He is from Lea County and says he will be moving back there soon to launch his candidacy. Cornelius says he will announce over the weekend. He does not have the personal wealth Tinsley does, but says he will be able to raise seed money to launch his effort.

THE BOTTOM LINES

As our world turns...

Will Tom Run? (You tell us.)

Will we ever stop talking about Richardson running for Senate? (Only if Tom formally announces.)

Will D.C Dems ever stop panicking over Marty Chavez? (No.)

Will New Mexico continue to be a bloggers' paradise? (It's the political Garden of Eden.)

Email your news and comments and visit us again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, November 01, 2007

House GOP Leader Foley Draws Primary Challenger, Plus: The PNM Layoffs: Why? And: Steve's Tour & Heather's News Bureau 

Add another race to your must-watch list for Campaign '08. A serious challenger has emerged for NM House Minority Whip Dan Foley. He's Dennis Kintigh, retired from the FBI after 25 years and now ready to get his feet wet in the treacherous waters of Chaves county politics by challenging Foley for the Republican nomination for his Roswell area seat.

"I see this as an extension of my public service. It's something I want to do and I anticipate entering the race in the near future," said Kintigh.

This Republican race will attract statewide attention because of Foley's leadership position and because he has been controversial. Most recently he burst into the headlines when he was arrested on charges of resisting arrest, disorderly conduct and obstructing an officer. That case is pending before a special prosecutor.

Foley and State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair have held a pretty firm grip on Chaves county GOP politics but they continue to be challenged by a faction that includes oilman Mark Murphy who want more moderate lawmakers.

Political newcomer Kintigh worked the narcotics beat for the FBI, dealing with some tough customers as described by the Roswell Record. That experience should come in handy as the customers don't come much tougher than Dan Foley.

INSIDE THE PNM LAYOFFS

Business Beagles are saying a big reason for the big layoffs at Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) is the electric utility's stock price. PNM is letting go of 500 workers over the next year--150 right away---saying the company needs to get lean and mean to finance future growth. But the business beagles say going unmentioned as a chief reason for the job slashing is continued pressure on PNM management to boost the company's stock price.

"There is a tremendous amount of pressure on management to produce a growing stock price. Utilities like PNM were once expected to be just steady stock performers. That is no longer the case. Wall Street wants a steady increase in the stock price, and they generally get what they want." Explained one of the biz beagles.

PNM's stock has been down as much as a third from its 52 week high. In recent years, Microsoft's Bill Gates bought a significant stake in the company.

PNM is taking hits for not shedding some weight in its highly paid executive suites while laying off rank and file employees. PNM CEO Jeff Sterba says execs will forgo bonuses for now, but they will keep their jobs.

FRED GETS FIERY
Mondragon
State Economic Development Secretary Fred Mondragon raised some eyebrows as he came out swinging against the PNM layoffs, the over 100 recently announced by Eclipse Aviation and 1,000 layoffs in Rio Rancho at Intel Corporation. He told KRQE-TV news:

"It's hard to see how they can justify a rate increase while at the same time laying off a number of people. I'm getting a little bit tired of these large companies coming in right before Christmas and playing bogeyman man... In this case right before Halloween and letting go of people right at the end of the year right before the holidays."

Mondragon suggested PNM execs look to cut costs among themselves. I'd be concerned about the high salaries," Mondragon continued. "They just brought in a high-powered executive from Colorado to be the chief operating officer."

Recent annual total compensation for CEO Sterba is $3.6 million. Other compensation in the executive suite of the publicly regulated utility include William Real at $924,000, Alice Cobb at $898,000 and Charles Eldred at $771,000.

Mondragon's comments are not going to resonate favorably in the PNM boardroom which is gearing up for a December rate increase hearing before the NM Public Regulation Commission, but his comments should be noted by the Legislature and local governments as they contemplate economic incentives for large companies.

Good paying jobs are cited as the trade-off for taxpayer sweetened deals, but now we're seeing how sour things can get for working New Mexicans when the big boys start sneezing.

PEARCE'S TOUR

The decidedly non-splashy Steve Pearce will try to make a splash Friday by beginning an "announcement tour" for his GOP US Senate candidacy. He'll start at a teen center in his hometown of Hobbs in SE NM and then make his way to ABQ for a 4 p.m. event at the Embassy Suites Hotel. One suspects he will try to nab live coverage on the 4 p.m. KOB-TV and KRQE-TV newscasts. The campaign is inviting several hundred supporters to be on hand.

Over the weekend Pearce will stop in Farmington, Santa Fe, Roswell and Alamogordo. He finishes Sunday in Mesilla in Doña Ana county.

A statewide candidate announcement like this needs to hit the ABQ and the El Paso TV markets. El Paso serves Las Cruces and Doña Ana County. Pearce could have gone straight to Doña Ana from Hobbs on Friday, but apparently believes he will be able get Sunday El Paso TV, even if he has done ABQ two days earlier. And if his campaign is not thinking "TV, TV, TV," they're not thinking right.

HEATHER'S NEWS BUREAU

ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson, apparently looking to burnish her credentials with the conservative crowd as she faces a tough race against Pearce for the GOP Senate nomination, engages in some old-fashioned press bashing in her latest newsletter.

"I bet you didn't hear this on the evening news last week," she writes. "In Al Anbar province, last week we had no casualties, killed or wounded in action...Al Anbar is the predominently Sunni part of Iraq where al Qaeda in Iraq was wreaking havoc about a year ago...It is vital to America that Iraq not become a safe haven for al Qaeda. Al Anbar is ground zero for that fight.

"The counter-insurgency strategy in al Anbar appears to be working. That's why you didn't hear about it last week." Declared Wilson

Sounding a little cocky there, Heather. But don't be too tough on members of the Fourth Estate. After all, you've only given them five years to learn what constitutes "real war news." If you help keep the war going another five, they are sure to come up with the quality journalism you expect. Oh, and a note to the Heather newsletter editor. It's spelled "predominantly" not "predominently."

Yeah, we love this game....

Have some political news? Comments? Email them our way. See you tomorrow on the Friday blog.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Reality Time: Bill Warms to Hillary, Plus: Cervantes Set To Enter Congress Race, And: New Marty Poll Causes Confusion; It's A Fearless Halloween Blog 

Crunch time turned to reality time for Big Bill last night as this most pragmatic of politicians signaled a significant shift in his campaign strategy, gamely defending front-runner Hillary Clinton and setting off renewed speculation among the Alligators that Richardson is now lobbying for the Veep slot or Secretary of State position in a Clinton administration. Some also said they see Richardson inching closer to a run for the US Senate in New Mexico. Here's the money graph from the report on the MSNBC debate:

With the crescendo of criticism of the former first lady at a fever pitch, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at one point questioned the "holier-than-thou" attitude of her critics.

"It's bothering me because it's pretty close to personal attacks that we don't need. We need to be positive in this campaign...Richardson said. (Video clip here.)

The Governor's arduous defense of Hillary was not lost on the political pros who noted it comes just two months before the opening Iowa caucuses and with Bill stalled out in the polls.

"Sending a warm signal to Clinton counts more now rather than two months from now when she could have the nomination nailed down," commented one of our veteran insiders.

LOVE IS IN THE AIR

The Hillary-Bill love fest actually started earlier in the day when the Guv filed papers in New Hampshire for that state's primary.

"I think that Senators Obama and Edwards should concentrate on the issues and not on attacking Senator Clinton," said Big Bill.

Sounds like he's rehearsing for Second Banana, doesn't it?

Looking at the debate through a different prism, the national press was of no help to Bill:

Richardson struggled to distinguish himself, attempting...to tout himself as the lone chief executive on stage but to little effect. Richardson does have perhaps the deepest resume of any candidate...but really struggles within the parameters of a debate to effectively convey that to voters." Analyzed the Washington Post's political blogger.

Realism has defined the political career of Bill Richardson. Tuesday night in Philadelphia he began the process of hedging his bets. Stay tuned.

CERVANTES STARTS HIS ENGINES

Back on the home front, the jockeying is far from over in what must be the most politically significant year in the state's post-WWII history. Word comes to us that Democratic State Representative Joe Cervantes of Doña Ana County is set to join the race for the southern US House seat being vacated by the GOP's Steve Pearce who is now running for the Domenici senate seat.

Cervantes emails us that he will make a formal announcement after the Las Cruces city election next Tuesday. He is not personally confirming he will run, but our reliable sources report he has told close associates he is going to make the run. Cervantes has a Hamlet aspect to his personality, so we'll leave a little crack in the door for a late change of course, otherwise consider him a go.

Cervantes will join Hobbs oilman Harry Teague, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and Al Kissling in the Dem race for the 2nd CD. Republican Ed Tinsley, a restaurant chain owner, is soliciting campaign contributions and is expected to formally enter the race in a week or so. There are no announced GOP candidates yet.

Cervantes and Teague have the personal wealth to wage battle, but as the lone Hispanic in the race Cervantes will go off as the front-runner. And not just because he is Hispanic, but because he is a practiced campaigner and well-spoken attorney. Teague is also savvy, having been twice elected a Lea County Commissioner.

The Cervantes camp was already framing the race against Teague with this first shot across the wealthy oilman's bow from a Joe booster:

"Harry will spend a lot of money but Dems will look very unfavorably on his ties to Steve Pearce and oil. Also, Harry cannot win a general election by outspending a Repub opponent, and Dems really want to win this one."

And what say you, Harry?

MULLING OVER MARTY

The Alligators were scratching their heads Tuesday when they got word that the US Senate campaign of Dem ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez had leaked a poll to the Capitol Hill newspaper, Roll Call, (subscription required) that showed him beating ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in a head-to-head race for the US Senate by just one point. The newspaper reported:

The survey, conducted by Lake Research Partners, had Chavez in front of Wilson 41 percent to 40 percent, with 19 percent undecided. The poll found Chavez leading Wilson among independent voters 48 percent to 30 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 8-11 and had an error margin of 4.9 points.

The reason the Gators were baffled is that they did not see how the poll advances Chavez's prospects. In a Democratic state in what is shaping up to be a big Dem year, they reason Chavez should be running well ahead, and rather than advancing his cause the numbers will just cause more "Anybody But Chavez" campaigning by national Dems in D.C. They continue to lobby NM Light Guv Diane Denish to get in the race.

The kicker here is that the Chavez poll makes no mention of how he would fare against GOP Congressman Steve Pearce who the insiders think is the early front-runner to take the Senate nomination, not Wilson. Pearce beat Chavez 56% to 35% in a SurveyUSA poll conducted earlier this month. Heather beat Marty 48% to 44% in the same poll.

Chavez's poll, rather than scaring anyone out of the race, again raises the question of why he is so weak with the state's Democratic base. Among independents, the poll has Chávez leading 48%-30%. His right-leaning mayoral administration is certainly the paramount reason for Dem disaffection.

LADY IN WAITING

Meanwhile, Light Guv Di told the Denver Post she will make a decision regarding a Senate run in the next 10 days. She is receiving nearly unanimous advice in New Mexico not to go and keep her eye on the Governor's job. But the lobbying from D.C. Dems is intense. They are fearful that Chavez can't make it and that Di is their best hope to switch the NM seat to the D's and help reach the national goal of 60 Dem US Senators needed to advance legislation.

All of this, of course, leads us back to Big Bill, whose popularity remains high in the state and who would be difficult to beat. His presidential campaign is going to hold up the Senate race here, whether the national Dems like it or not. Only the unexpected--a Denish entry--will start the Senate clock without the Big Guy. Right now Marty Chavez is Big Bill's biggest booster for the Presidency because if Bill falters and goes for Senate, it would be Chavez facing an 800 pound gorilla. And you know who wins those face-offs.

Home of the Exclusives! Home of New Mexico politics! Email your news and comments and help us keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Crunch Time Coming For Guv As Iowa Goes Early, Plus: Our Candidate Watch, And: US Senator: Looking The Part; Our Photo Analysis On Your Tuesday Blog 

Crunch time for Big Bill appears to be coming sooner rather than later. The decision to move the Iowa Presidential Caucus from January 14 to January 3 will rob the long shot hopeful of crucial days to make his case, time he seems to need as a summer long anti-war offensive has failed to propel his campaign and rumors of a possible US Senate candidacy contribute to a malaise that is keeping the NM Governor from moving ahead. The influential insider publication National Journal Monday summed up Bill's problems this way:

"The polls show Richardson holds steady in Iowa, which seems to be his lone shot at this thing. But the rumor that he's going to eventually quit the race to pursue a Senate seat may eventually take its toll (it already has on the buzz front.) The issue we have with Richardson is that he's a terrible liberal. It's not in the guys DNA. He's trying to become the anti-war candidate but doesn't seem like a credible messenger."

For those who have followed Richardson's career, that's pretty insightful stuff. He has made it a point to carve out a centrist reputation. It has always been where he is most comfortable and he seems less authentic when he steers from that course.

In New Hampshire Monday, Dem Dennis Kucinich, who has been characterized as a fringe candidate but who has a longstanding and strong identity as an anti-war liberal, was trumpeting his showing in the latest Rasmussen Poll. He scores 7% support, the same as Big Bill who has raised millions more than US Rep. Kucinich but who has now said goodbye to double digits in all early state Prez polls. The New Hampshire primary is now expected to come January 8, just five days after Iowa.

The die is cast. Big Bill must somehow ignite anti-war passions among Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats if he is to have a chance of breaking through, or the front runners must make the big mistake. As long as neither of those circumstances is occurring, the Senate buzz around the Governor will only grow louder.

TINSLEY WATCH

You think they would be swarming, but a full two weeks after GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce announced he would vacate his southern congressional seat to run for the US Senate, not one R has officially announced their candidacy to replace him. This, even though the seat has belonged to the R's since 1980. Insiders say restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley is quietly making preparations for a run and that Earl Greer of T or C is possible. But the lack of a group of heavyweights already out campaigning for the seat is disturbing to R's who worry that the Dems may finally get their shot next year.

Tinsley can self-finance his campaign and that makes him a likely front runner or maybe a lone runner. R's ought to hire a doctor to watch over Ed because if something happens to him we may have to start a "draft somebody" movement down there. Can you believe it?

LOOKING THE PART

Don't underestimate the Max Factor factor in Campaign '08. That applies especially to the race for US Senate where GOP US Reps Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson are hoping to graduate from the "House of the People" to the "World's Most Exclusive Club" where you are one of a special 100.

Photog Mark Bralley has sent back from the trail fresh pics of our R Senate competitors that speak to the higher status both seek. Click on them to enlarge and read on for our "fashionable" analysis.

Pearce, who you usually see in a starched white shirt and dark blazer or suit, sports a more relaxed and colorful look in this shot taken over the weekend at a gathering of Republican women. Pearce has been criticized as a colorless personality who can remind you of a mean uncle. But with the light gray blazer and friendly orange shirt and tie, Pearce becomes nice Uncle Steve. Not everyone will like the color palette (too much orange) but it's a start. In this pic with the new duds, his David Letterman gap-toothed smile emanates approachability, not the remoteness that one often perceives from Pearce.

There will be plenty of time for the white shirts and boring ties. Pearce's bald pate gives him more than enough senatorial seriousness. He needs a more friendly and accessible look. He has it here. Was it planned or unplanned?

HEATHER'S FASHION HINTS

This shot of Heather, which we ran when she announced, is also a keeper. Dowdy Heather has been banished as she steps up her look for a US Senate climb. The sky blue suit is a good color for her and she is definitely looking more Nordstrom's than Dillard's as she grabs for the brass ring. The lapis colored earrings set off a spark of femininity without compromising authority. The make-up is camera ready and has a richer look.

Heather also has taken the de rigueur American flag lapel pin up a notch. This one is composed of diamonds and ruby colored stones. Are they real? No matter. With her assured smile and freshly prepped hair, we're definitely ready for lunch with Senator Clinton. Now wouldn't that make for a picture?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Maybe we were foggy, but Monday we confessed to being confused about how GOP State Rep. W.C. "Dub" Williams acquired his nickname. Thanks to reader Amy Horowitz, among others, we were pointed in the right direction. "He's W.C. Williams as in "Dub-ul-yew C." Dub, for short." explained Amy. Of course, President Bush is sometimes nicknamed "Dubya" after his middle initial "W."

A member of the NM Legislature also emailed in with the explanation but demanded a bowl of free chicharrones in return for the help. Some things never change...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, October 29, 2007

Heather Sets Date With Cheney, Plus: Pearce's First Pitch, Also: Bill's Veep Chances And Boitano's Beef 

Heather's date with Dick has been set. Here's the official invitation for ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson's November 15th D.C. fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney. Wilson, in a contest for the GOP US Senate nomination with fellow NM US Rep. Steve Pearce, is a self-described "moderate" who was "on vacation" when Cheney visited Roswell last year for a fund-raiser. Today she is showing no hesitation embracing Cheney who commands little national political support, but still has mojo with the GOP base. That base is going to vote in the June '08 primary. At the start of this campaign Pearce's conservative credentials are intact and Wilson's are somewhat tattered.

Pearce's campaign says Cheney has called the congressman and offered to do an event for their guy and that Cheney's attendance at Heather's $2300 a person Capitol Hill Club reception and photo op should not be taken as a sign that he is endorsing her. The event was actually set up originally for Heather's House re-election bid.

Wilson is trying to entice wealthy NM R's to fly to D.C. for her Cheney bash. She is offering them, among other things, her personal tour of the Capitol. Will she concentrate on the Senate side?

PEARCE'S PLEA

It took Steve Pearce a mere 72 hours to dash off his first fundraising pitch after giving word that he would run for the seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. The Alligators also scored for us with Pearce, acquiring a copy of the October 19th letter for you here. In it he takes an indirect jab at Heather saying, "...this is a time when our country needs leaders who will stand up for real conservative principles."

Pearce will try to keep Wilson on the defensive by saying he's the R's true conservative. He will be arguing this even as the larger electorate moves increasingly towards the center or the left. If he beats Heather for the nomination, are we then going to see the unveiling of a "new" Steve Pearce? If he wants to win, you will.

THE FALLBACK

It is probably do or die for Wilson and Pearce. Lose the senate race and you're gone. But what if Big Bill gets in and defeats the R contender? That loss would be a lot less stinging and more expected than one to say Marty Chavez. In the case of the Guv some insider R's see Pearce perhaps surviving the hit and able to launch a campaign for the 2010 governor's race. Heather would be less likely to survive because her senate loss would be combined with her near loss, in 2006, of her ABQ congressional seat.

TAKE YOUR PICK

Last week Dick Morris, former Clinton adviser turned Fox News analyst, predicted Big Bill would be Hillary's pick for Veep if she secures the Dem Prez nod. But Sunday on "Meet the Press" veteran conservative commentator Bill Safire downplayed Bill's chances for the second slot.

Well, I was torn there, because Bill Richardson would bring a lot to the ticket, his Spanish background and all. However, he’s surprised all of us by going very strongly anti-war. Now, bring the boys home now—not the boys. Bring the troops home now. So I don’t think she could cross that bridge with him.

BOITANO'S BEEF

ABQ GOP State Senator Mark Boitano, who says he is thinking about running for the R nomination for the ABQ US House seat, thinks top Republicans are working to shut out competition in the race for the ABQ congressional seat. He sent this e-mail out to friends.

The Republican National Congressional Campaign Committee (RNCC) told my consultant that they want me out of the race because we will drain resources from the Darren White campaign. If I don't drop out, they will NOT support me in the general election against the Democrat nominee. How's that for knowing who your friends are?


It is an open secret that top R's in the state and national parties favor Sheriff White, but the RNCC says it rarely takes public stands in contested primaries. So far White is unopposed for the nomination and neither Boitano or State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones appear likely to get in, although they are making noise. They don't want to give up their legislative seats. As for Boitano seeking support from the NRCC (it's the National Republican Congressional Committee) and finding he has no friends there, as the song says he "was looking for friends in all the wrong places."

THE BOTTOM LINES

After some back and forth over whether he would or would not, we get word that GOP State Rep. Dub Williams representing Otero and Lincoln counties is indeed going to seek re-election next year. From John Billingsley, chairman of the Otero county R's: " I personally talked to Dub today (Oct 26th) and he assured me that he and his wife Cathryn made the decision just two days ago (Oct 24th) to once again run for the District 56 seat..."

Thanks, John. Now will someone now tell us how a fella gets dubbed "Dub'?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
 
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