Rep. Tom Udall's staff confirmed Saturday he will seek the Dem US Senate nomination.

Sen. Schumer
"Let New Mexico decide." That was the message ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez's campaign says he personally delivered to New York Senator Charles Schumer at a Washington D.C. meeting this week. They also say the Senator, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, did not ask Chavez to get out of the Senate race in favor of Dem US Rep. Tom Udall.

"There was nothing resolved. The mayor told Senator Schumer he believes it is best that New Mexicans decide this race," Said Chavez campaign manager Mark Fleisher.

The spokesman said Chavez remains fully committed to a Senate run. He dismissed rumors that Chavez might be persuaded to run for the open ABQ House seat, clearing the Senate field for Udall. "That is not going to happen. There is zero chance. Mayor Chavez is running for Senate." Said Fleisher.

Schumer made local headlines when he indicated the DSCC might endorse a candidate in our state's Dem Senate race, clearly meaning that they would endorse Udall because they do not think Chavez can win the general election. The Chavez campaign snapped back that it wanted "New Mexicans not New Yorkers" to decide the course of the Senate race.

NEW NUMBERS

Meanwhile, the left wing of the Democratic Party is beating the drums the loudest for Udall to come into the race. A new poll released on the liberal Web site Daily Kos confirms the conventional wisdom that Udall, as things stand today, would be a stronger general election candidate than the three term ABQ Mayor.

The poll, conducted this week among 600 "likely NM voters" showed Congressman Tom beating GOP US Rep. Wilson 55% to 38% and trouncing Rep. Pearce 54% to 37%. The poll says Chavez trails Wilson by three points and Pearce by one. Pearce and Wilson are leaving their US House seats to run for the GOP nod for Senate.

The poll did not measure Big Bill's strength against Wilson and Pearce but earlier polls show him stronger than Udall. Richardson says he isn't running. Some of the Alligators said one way he could get the Senate monkey off of his back is by endorsing Udall for the Senate seat over Chavez. An interesting thought, if Udall joins the battle.

THE PREZ BEAT

Meanwhile, The Guv was getting some good spin for a change for his chances in the Dem Prez sweepstakes. An AP analysis includes this tidbit: "A senior Iowa Democrat who backs Edwards is telling important people around the state that you will beat one of the top three Democrats on Jan. 3 — Clinton, Obama or Edwards — and drive that person from the race. A few others say the spoiler role could go to Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware."

JOE'S JOINING
Organ Mountains
Monday is Veterans Day and we wouldn't be surprised to see some of our beloved politicos surface to make some hay and throw some more wrenches into the complicated political equations we are all taking about. We know for sure that Doña Ana State Rep. Joe Cervantes will be making an appearance. He tells us he will formally announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the southern congressional seat seat at the NM Farm and Ranch Heritage Museum in Las Cruces whose main building is named after former NM Governor Bruce King.

Among those in attendance will be State Reps Kenny Martinez and Al Park who helped Cervantes spearhead an unsuccessful coup attempt against House Speaker Ben Lujan last December. Cervantes won't have to worry about Santa Fe anymore. He has told associates he is done with the State House and will not file for re-election for his seat.

Announcing at the ranch museum is intended to emphasize the hopeful's generational ties to agriculture. Cervantes hails from a major chile growing family. His mother was a founding member of the museum along with former Governor King and the Cervantes family cattle brand is on display there.

CAMPOS DROPS OUT

In an email Friday morning, just two days after he got in the southern congressional race, State Rep. Jose Campos said he is giving up his run for health reasons: "I will no longer be able to seek out the 2nd congressional seat. I will need surgery on my back this Wednesday." He said.

Running with Campos and Cervantes is oil man Harry Teague, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, Frank McKinnon and Al Kissling. Because Cervantes and Teague have signaled they are willing to self-finance their campaigns, they will start as the leading contenders, but this one should deliver plenty of fun.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Ex-Guvs Apodaca & Anaya
Forget the Internet, the glib TV commercials and the slick direct mail pieces. When it comes to the race for the first open New Mexico US Senate seat in 35 years, we're going Old School. That means hand-to-hand combat, behind the scenes movidas and raw ethnic politics. Wednesday we got a taste of it as two former Governors were roused from a long political hibernation and issued an unexpected endorsement of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez in his bid for the 2008 Democratic Senate nomination.

Toney Anaya (1983-87) was blatant in his reasoning. "Chavez is a native son who understands the issues that are unique to our state." He declared.

Jerry Apodaca (1975-78), doubling up with Toney, said: "Chavez has demonstrated his strong leadership and administrative skills as Mayor."

Their message was aimed squarely at northern NM Congressman Tom Udall who is considering joining the battle for the Dem nod. They seemed to say if Udall comes he ought to prepare for warfare for the hearts of the native New Mexican families that have held forth here for four centuries. It doesn't get more Old School than that.

Anaya, 66, left the governor's office deeply unpopular and it could be argued his endorsement isn't worth much. That would be on the mark for a general election in which Republicans and Independents can vote, but we're talking about a Democratic primary. Anaya of Moriarty handed out a lot of jobs and patronage and many of those folks, almost all Dems, are still around. Apodaca, 73, of Las Cruces did not leave the Fourth Floor in bad shape and also has friends who may take a second look at Chavez after hearing from the former Governor.

HE NEEDS THEM

Chavez needs the help. He has alienated many in the Spanish north by leaning right while ABQ mayor. Some of the discontent goes back to when he was in the State Senate in the early 90's. Chavez may be unable to personally mend many of those fences. He will need supporters like Anaya and Apodaca to start doing the repair work.

Congressman Tom has represented the northern district since '98, garnering huge majorities among Hispanics and Native American who comprise a majority of the population there. He is positioned nicely with them and unless Chavez succeeds in bringing them home, he is a goner.

There has been no Hispanic in the five member NM congressional delegation since Bill Richardson left the northern seat in '98 to join the Clinton administration. The last Hispanic US Senator was Joe Montoya who was defeated in 1976. The most legendary NM US Senator is Dennis Chavez who died in ‘62 and whose statue is on display at the US Capitol.

Udall and Chavez both graduated from exclusive law schools. Udall from Cambridge in England; Chavez from Georgetown in D.C. But if they run against each other, they can forget what they learned at those elite campuses. This Senate race is a fight for La plebe--the people-- and it's going to be Old School all the way.

THE CAMPOS COUP

The Alligators are rarely wrong, but they aren't perfect and the e-mail came in Wednesday jabbing the slithery creatures for their assessment here this week that Dem State Rep. Jose Campos wasn't really serious about running for the southern NM US House seat. It turns out that Campos was more serious than they may have thought as he publicly announced that he will seek the Deem nomination for the seat being vacated by Republican Steve Pearce who is running for US Senate.

Rep. Campos's brother, Paul Campos, piled on the Gators and emailed: "As Joe’s brother, I can tell you that Joe is really running. Joe’s style is to run hard! He is already doing it. Joe Cervantes knows this."

The aforementioned Cervantes is Doña Ana State Rep. Joe Cervantes who appeared to be the sole major Hispanic candidate prepared to get into the southern race--until now.

The Alligators forced us to blog (really, they did) that Campos could be toying with an entry just to needle Cervantes because he opposed House Speaker Lujan for re-election to his leadership position.

Now that Campos says he is in the race, several of the Gators are still prodding us to ask him if he is going to publicly announce that he is giving up his State House seat to make the congressional run or will he delay that decision? A delay, they claim, buttresses their original thinking that Campos is not all in. (Alligators are known for their persistence.)

Campos is chairman of the House Voters and Elections Committee and if he stayed in the Legislature would be a major player in the 2011 redistricting of the legislative and congressional seats, but only if he stays around. If he gives up His Santa Fe seat and were to lose a Congress bid, he would remain mayor of Santa Rosa.

Paul Campos said he will ask Jose about that State House seat and report back. If Jose does give it up maybe another Campos will step forward to run for it. The district includes parts of Guadalupe, De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Meanwhile, I'll hold off punishing the Gators, but am preparing a vegetarian diet for them--but only if Campos says he is not seeking re-election to the Roundhouse--and it sticks. Stay tuned.

PATIENCE NO VIRTUE

If we're learning anything in this historic period in New Mexican politics it's that patience is not necessarily a virtue. Congressman Udall delays a decision and Chavez starts firing bullets; Rep. Cervantes delays getting in and Jose Campos beats him to the punch. Sometimes when you want to lead, you have to start leading.

DIFFICULT DISCLOSURE

There was some delicious irony around here Wednesday when e-mail came in pointing out that the link we had provided for the campaign finance report of Light Guv Diane Denish was a dead link. Di's team had proudly announced that she was voluntarily releasing a report on her fund-raising for the 2010 Governor's race even though none was required.

The problem has since been corrected. (Here's the report.) But you wonder if someone in Santa Fe is going to think this is a clever idea--pass a bill requiring tougher disclosure, but leave it up to the politicos to decide where it's disclosed. Actually, that would be a tougher law than the one have now. As they say, "Only in New Mexico...."

THE BOTTOM LINES

There is another Democratic candidate for the 2010 Dem Guv nomination. We blogged Wednesday that Diane was the only one, but we were reminded by astute reader Stephanie DuBois: “Carlos Provencio is an announced candidate for Governor from Silver City. He was the Grant County Democratic chair and recently stepped down to run for Governor. Talked with him Saturday at the State Central Committee meeting as he was passing out his literature.”

Alright, Carlos. We'll try not to forget you and the 2010 race, but with what's going to be happening in the next year, we can't make any promises...Big Bill is moving more troops to Iowa. This time from South Carolina. Looks like it's all Iowa all the time for the New Mexican who would be President...

Email your news and comments and keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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With the clock ticking ominously, Big Bill has decided to marshal his forces and descend on Des Moines. His Prez campaign announced Tuesday his Nevada staffers are being moved to Iowa, the state that will hold the first Prez caucus January 3 and where it now appears only an upset showing by the New Mexico Governor will keep his long shot bid alive. The Guv is polling at about the 7% level in Iowa.

The move is logical. If John Edwards is do or die in Iowa, why not Richardson? Although he is keeping staff in New Hampshire and campaigning there, the Guv will have no momentum if he does not shake up the Hawkeye State. He can do nothing less than go all in and hope for the unexpected and be there to take advantage.

Look on the bright side, Guv. If it all ends January 3, you will have plenty of time to write your State-of-the-State speech for the opening day of the Legislature! Now that is sure to cheer the Big Guy up on the dark winter nights to come.

VOLUNTEER PAINS

Getting New Mexicans to brave the cold climes of Iowa is not easy under any circumstances, but with the caucus coming so close to the holidays some potential Bill Iowa volunteers are having second thoughts as we hear from one of those prospective volunteers.

"The Gov was seeking hundreds of New Mexicans to go to Iowa to help. I, along with all the other NM volunteers, cannot commit the December holidays to the weak Richardson campaign. That timing will hurt the candidates like Richardson who rely more on volunteers than paid workers that the big guys and girls can afford. I'll report back..."

STAFF INTRIGUE

Keeping your staff glued together can be a challenge when polling shows you going nowhere fast. So it is with the Guv. One national blog is going after him for kissing up to Hillary, asserting that a key Bill staffer is one of the reasons.

Richardson seems to have retooled himself into running hard for a spot on Clinton's ticket. In the recent debates, when others aggressively attacked Clinton, Richardson praised her and seemingly tried to fend off those candidates who did challenger her...The "Suck up to Hillary" strategy appears to be the brainchild of Richardson media consultant Steve Murphy. Murphy...would like to be picked-up for the Hillary entourage once Richardson is either crushed or The VP candidate. Whether it should be attributed to Murphy or others in the Richardson camp, Richardson is not acting these days like a real challenger...

Besides the ongoing Veep speculation, Bill has also been in the middle of the speculation over the open NM US Senate seat, insisting he is not running. Veteran insiders are still not willing to say if northern NM Dem US Rep. Tom Udall is coming in because they are hearing it out of Washington and not on the ground in NM, but those saying he is in say so with firm conviction. He would be joining ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Certainly, the candidates hoping to replace Udall in the House believe he is coming in; we're told one of them has already hired a couple of consultants.

MORE SENATE STUFF

Let's go back to Monday's blog on Udall and Chavez that drew plenty of reaction. The point was not that Udall should not do all in his power to "clear the field." The point is when you try to do it before you are 100% committed to the race, you look like you're afraid to get in unless another guy gets out. That's not an emotion you want to convey when seeking a U.S. Senate seat.

Once Udall gets in the long knives will come out to choke off Chavez's national cash and to tie up Dems to beat out the ABQ Mayor at the March pre-primary convention. That is expected when you are all suited up. But threatening to do it without actually getting in the game is a different story.

DI'S DISCLOSURE
Denish
If Diane Denish can keep it up, perhaps "pay to play" politics will not loom quite as large over the state. The Light Guv has decided to release regular reports on her campaign fund-raising for the 2010 Guv's race, even though state law does not require regular disclosure until the election year. Her first report shows no five figure contribution. You can download the report here.

There is no limit on contributions here, but the largest one Denish reported taking was for $5,500 from the Dem Lt. Governor's Association. She also picked up Five Grand from Downs at Santa Fe owner and Big Bill pal Paul Blanchard. That contrasts with some of the huge donations we saw in last year's election.

Denish and other members of the Guv's ethics task force have been advocating limits on contributions and more open disclosure, but the politicians on the committee have ignored calls for them to set an example and voluntarily release information or limit their own contributions. The Light Guv is the first major candidate we can recall releasing a campaign report when not required, and is going to score political points, particularly with liberal Dems who have been the staunchest advocates of ethics reform.

Lady Di's war chest is healthy, showing about $1.2 million in cash and $260,000 in debt. She raised $221,000 in the quarter and spent $79,000. One of her larger expenditures was about $15,000 and went to the political consulting firm HildebrandTewes.

With the race for Guv starting four years before the election and millions set to be raised, the hole in the state law requiring little reporting is as big as the hole they made to build the Pit. Denish has done her part to fill it. Can our state lawmakers now pick up their shovels?

FINALLY IN

It took long enough, but we finally have an official GOP candidate in the race for the Steve Pearce US House seat. Restaurant owner and rancher Ed Tinsley of Captain sent out a press release Tuesday announcing his bid. He said the top issues in the southern congressional district are: "immigration reform and border security, health care, small business and family tax relief and the safety of Americans."

Interesting that the #1 issue in the USA--the no-end-in-sight Iraq war--is not mentioned. Pearce also did not emphasize the "I" word in his announcement for Senate.

THOSE WACKY POLLS

More today on SurveyUSA's polling in the NM US Senate race. Pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides said the latest survey was a "stinker" because it was so widely divergent from SurveyUSA's early October poll. Hal Hensley was one of several readers to make this point:

...There is a legitimate argument regarding the effectiveness of the methodology, but Pavlides has no basis in saying this most recent poll is a "stinker." It could just as well be the previous poll was the "stinker." ...The most recent poll has a larger sample which would lead me to put more credence in its results, but the bottom line is: I would recommend waiting until Survey USA comes out with its next poll before determining what does or does not constitute a "stinker."

Pavlides responds that he is not happy with either SurveyUSA Senate polls because of the methodology. He says he believes the poll is most useful when it deals with candidates with exceptionally high name ID like Governor Big Bill and Senator Pete Domenici, but less reliable when measuring candidates not already very well-known by the general public.

"The results involving very well known candidates often does not diverge greatly between registered and non-registered voters because everyone, not only the more informed registered voters, is familiar with them." He said.

INSIDE THE POLL

Survey USA asks by automatic phone call whether the respondent is registered to vote. There is no guarantee that the respondent is providing accurate information. Pavlides believes SurveyUSA will become more accurate as the campaign progresses because the difference in opinion between registered and non-registered persons will diminish as the Senate race becomes "high information." There is no way to know how many respondents are answering incorrectly when they say they are registered voters.

But even by the "very well known" standard, the latest poll seems askew as it gives Big Bill a 52% approval rating, his lowest ever and with no events to explain the drop. Despite the low approval, the poll says the Guv still trounces Wilson and Pearce with around 59% of the vote. Also, his approval rating is much higher in other polling. That's why they are calling this particular survey a stinker.

Pavlides said he agrees with Hensley that the SurveyUSA poll released this week is the more accurate of the two. It shows Chavez narrowly beating Wilson and Pearce. The first poll had Pearce beating Chavez by 18 points and losing to Wilson by four. But none of the politicos we spoke with are putting much stock in any of these numbers.

The problem is no NM or national news organization is currently polling the state with a firm scientific method--screening for registered voters and using live phone interviewers. Until we get that, SurveyUSA will be welcomed, but greeted with the proverbial grain of salt by the picky eaters of our cherished La Politica.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In Las Cruces Tuesday night, Democrat Ken Miyagishima appeared to have upset Republican Mayor Bill Mattiace by 74 votes out of 11,416 cast. Miyagishima received 5,745 votes, or 50.3 percent to Mattiace’s 5,671 votes, or 49.7 percent. If the results hold, the Mayors of NM's four largest cities--ABQ, Las Cruces, Santa Fe and Rio Rancho--will all be led by Dems.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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The latest SurveyUSA poll showing wild differences with one conducted just three weeks earlier was being labeled a "stinker" by sharp-eyed observers, but the smell certainly didn't offend ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. He jumped on the results like green chile to an enchilada when he heard the survey had him beating GOP US Senate candidates Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. Never mind that the October 8 numbers showed Chavez being waxed by Pearce by 18 points. It now has Marty beating the southern NM congressman by five (48% to 43%). And never mind that he was losing to US Rep. Wilson by four in the first poll, but now beats her by four (48% to 44%). Chavez was not about to lose an opportunity to take on his number one problem--the perception that he can't win a statewide race.

The poll, as shaky as it was, nevertheless comes as northern Dem NM US Congressman Tom Udall weighs getting in the race against Chavez for the US Senate nod, providing Chavez with a hook to keep the money coming in while Udall ponders. It also highlighted the importance of being on the field and in the game for the coveted Senate chair. Chavez is able to crow about the poll, use it to raise money and there is no one around to challenge him. It's the kind of thing that drives his many critics up the wall. For Chavez it's just another day at the office.

Veteran political analyst and consultant Harry Pavlides said the methodology of the poll--random dialing by automatic phone call into households not screened for registered voters--is bound to deliver inconsistent results.

"Once in a while you are going to get a stinker using this method, and that what we have here," explained Pavlides.

He said Pearce going from 18 up to four back is the most glaring example, but he also said the Chavez-Wilson match-up is jumping around because of the polling method, not because of news or campaign events. He sees it as a potentially close race, with no clear front-runner. (Udall was not included in the survey conducted last week. In an earlier survey, he beat both Pearce and Wilson handily.)

There is a consistency in the two recent SurveyUSA polls that Pavlides said merits attention. Dem Guv Big Bill is trouncing Pearce and Wilson in mock Senate match-ups. He beats Heather 59% to 37%. Against Pearce the Democratic Governor wins 58% to 37%. The first survey showed similar results, with Richardson a notch stronger.

BILL AND THE SENATE

And that brings us back to Bill. Is Richardson reluctant to give a firm answer to Tom Udall on his Senate plans? And is that causing heartburn for Udall? Udall is saying the Guv has "definitively" ruled out a Senate race, but some Richardson insiders are saying they have been told to keep their powder dry, indicating that the Senate is still on Bill's radar. I asked one of these "insiders" who it was that told him to cool his jets. "It came from the top," he said. The Governor? I asked. "The top," he replied."

What is especially worrisome to the Udall camp is statements like these from politicos close to the Guv. "Even if Tom gets in the race, I wouldn't rule out Richardson running. Bill Richardson is going to do what is good for Bill Richardson." Said one.

Tom Udall has something to lose--a comfortable US House seat. If Richardson is turned away in his bid for the Dem nod for President and his chances for Veep look dim, he could very well join Marty Chavez in singing that Bob Dylan line: "When you ain't got nothing, you ain't got nothing to lose."

NAME DROPPING

We don't want to start breaking their hearts so soon, but the multitude of candidates floating their names for the southern congressional seat and the one up North, have little chance of making it to the June ballot. Remember that 20% thing? You need a minimum of 20% at the March pre-primary convention to get on the ballot. As comedian Bill Maher would say: "New Rule."

It means we will probably have no more than three, perhaps four, candidates ultimately running for the Dem nominations down south and, if Udall leaves his House seat, the same number for the Dem nod up north. Same for the R's down south. The northern House seat is overwhelmingly Dem and will likely attract only one or two serious GOP contenders.

THE MINI-MOVIDA
Rep. Campos
Would State Rep. and Santa Rosa Mayor Jose Campos really give up his seat to go for the Dem nomination for the Pearce House seat? Probably not, say the Alligators. But it may have the intended effect of freaking out Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes who is preparing to announce his candidacy soon. Campos would eat into Cervantes's Hispanic support. The Gators point to NM House Speaker Ben Lujan to explain this one. Cervantes opposed the Speaker's re-election and now the Speaker's friend Jose is talking of opposing Joe.

Hey, you and I can be pretty sure that Campos won't do it, but Cervantes may have to hit Walgreens for the Sominex. And that is what they call a "mini-movida."

Meanwhile, Speaker Lujan's son, Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the NM Public Regulation Commission, is hitting the phones talking to Dem Central Committee members seeking support for a run for Udall's House seat, but Udall, according to one of our informers, has called the leading candidates and told them not to jump in before they get word from him.

BACK TO THE NAMES

Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman is having his name tossed around as a possible Republican candidate for the Pearce House seat. GOP Restaurant owner Ed Tinsley tells us he is going to talk to reporters Wednesday about his planned run. The son of Roswell area rancher Aubrey Dunn tells us his dad will make his plans for the GOP race known by mid-month. Bob Cornelius of Tatum in Lea County has already announced. Others are toying with it. Another Bob, Bob Gallagher of the NM Oil and Gas Association, is also a possible for the Udall seat on the Dem side.

Tom, you better hurry up and make up your mind. The dam is about to burst.

THE BOTTOM LINES

State GOP chair Allen Weh says we jumped the gun when we said the current leadership of the NM GOP is in the Heather Wilson camp when it comes to her Senate race with Steve Pearce.

"That’s a broad brush statement that would logically implicate me since I’m the chairman. Not only is there no “proof” of my boosting Heather (excepting prior support and contributions as a member of the House running for re-election), you will find this chairman is neutral and focused on keeping the debate civil and on the issues."

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Udall & Chavez
Call them the doubters of Thomas. A slightly tentative tone creeped into the speech given by Dem US Rep. Tom Udall Saturday when he addressed the NM Democratic Party State Central Committee, and it was enough for the arm chair analysts and Alligators to reopen the betting line on whether Udall will really give up his northern NM US House seat and run for the US Senate. At the same time, reliable insiders said Udall's camp is hoping that ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez can be persuaded to get out before Udall makes a final decision. Udall now says he will take two weeks to decide which would put an announcement no later than November 16th.

Udall, who Thursday said he was "reconsidering" whether to seek the Senate seat, was not expected to formally announce Saturday, but by most accounts he also did not deliver a speech that indicated he was strongly leaning toward a run. He said before committing he wanted to consult Dem NM Senator Bingaman and the Senate Democratic leadership and wanted assurances that he would start off with some stroke. Udall would be giving up a slot on the powerful House Appropriations Committee if he were to be lucky enough to take a Senate seat.

But what assurances can he get? Promise a first year freshman senator a seat on the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee? Good luck. That would be a promise not worth the cocktail napkin it was written on.

MOVING MARTY

Top Democratic Party insiders said they agreed that Udall's initial foray into the public arena following his decision to reconsider a Senate race was more muted than expected. They also said they believe he is taking two weeks not to just talk to the Senate leadership, but to see if D.C. Dems intent on getting ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez out of the race can work some magic on Udall's behalf. Again, good luck.

A cross section of Dem power players agreed putting pressure on Chavez via the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and its chairman, New York Senator Chuck Schumer, would only make Chavez dig in his heels.

Mike Santullo, a NM talk radio pioneer and a native New Yorker with 35 years of NM political experience, put it this way:

"If Tom Udall wants this seat he is going to have to be prepared to fight for it. It is not going to be given to him nor is it his to assume by hereditary right. Senator Schumer would be well-advised to heed the words of (former NM Territorial Governor) Lew Wallace. 'All calculations based on our experiences elsewhere fail in New Mexico.'

Santullo also framed the race as "Chavez's brass knuckles against Udall's boxing gloves."

"You must fight for the right." He maintained.

Udall's father, Stewart Udall, was a U.S. House member from Arizona from 1955 to 1961 and then served as U.S. Interior secretary from 1961 to 1969.

CEMENT AND THE PILLOW

Another political veteran offered her assessment where the Chavez-Udall situation stands.

"Chavez sleeps on cement. This is it for him. He is going to do whatever it takes. Udall has a soft pillow with his congressional seat. That's the difference." She said.

Others chimed in that Udall's two week stall could have the effect of drying up Marty's cash and also keeps the focus off of Big Bill who has been wounded by speculation that he might seek the Senate seat if his Prez campaign falters.

GAMING THE RACE

If the national Dems insist on risking building sympathy for Chavez, they could call on personalities such as former President Clinton and Hillary to lobby him to get out. But it would likely be for naught. If Chavez folded because Bill Richardson was getting in, that would be one thing, but to fold for Udall would forever mark him in the history books. If Senator Schumer thinks differently, we suggest he switch his brand of scotch.

Could Chavez be threatened out of the race? It's hard to see. The three term ABQ mayor has been accused of just about everything and he is still standing. What are they going to throw at him that he fears, and that they have the stomach to take before the public?

Udall's caution is legendary. He rarely looks for a fight. It is not in his character, but a fight it will likely be if you really want a hand in leading the American nation.

If he is indeed planning a run, he may have made a tactical error by appearing at the Saturday meeting and not stepping up the rhetoric. Also, if the goal is to generate news and build statewide name ID for two weeks, you want to be darn sure what you're re putting out emphasizes your strength, not the element of your personality that could cause trouble.

On this one, we break with the conventional wisdom of the Washington press, the anti-Chavez brigades, and the coterie surrounding Chuck Schumer which all have Udall definitely in this race. Our gut and our Alligators have us planted firmly on the fence. We are agnostic until we are shown the proof. And we won't surprised if it goes either way. Neither should you.

PEARCE PLACE

For Steve Pearce a Senate run by Big Bill remains on the table. The southern NM GOP Congressman says he still sees Richardson possibly getting in the race, or at least believes that's how he should conduct himself.

"If you're a high-school football team, you don't prepare to play against Jal if your opponent's going to be Albuquerque High," he said.

Yes, Big Bill lurks. Until Udall utters, Bill's possible presence in the Senate race casts a long shadow. And even if Udall gets in, the noise won't go away until after the February 12 filing deadline. The stakes are that high.

THE HAT TRICK
Cargo
Pearce, facing a primary battle with ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, had a hat trick at his formal entry into the race Friday afternoon in ABQ--he pulled out former NM Governor Dave Cargo. The most prominent moderate Republican in the state introduced Pearce. It was Pearce looking to invade Heather's territory in the big metro area and the Spanish North and fight perceptions that he is too conservative to win a general election.

State R's are split into factions over the Wilson-Pearce race. The current leadership, Senator Domenici's operatives and associated consultants and hangers-on are boosting Heather. Pearce is attracting the reform wing that made an unsuccessful play this year to replace GOP Chairman Allen Weh. Cargo, 78, is not a conservative Pearce type, but is willing to go with him as Pearce will assume leadership of the party if he wins the nomination.

You old-timers will note the Cargo appearance with Pearce for another reason. The ex-Guv sought the open US Senate seat in 1972 when Democratic Senator Clinton Anderson retired. Who beat Dave for the GOP nomination that year? None other than Pete Domenici. Now, 35 years later, Cargo is back to put the needle in.

Truly, our beloved La Politica is a game for a lifetime.

IRAQ? WHAT'S THAT?

Pearce's announcement was also notable in that he did not once mention the word "Iraq." He threw out just a chunk of red meat, not the whole steak.

"We need conservative leadership in Congress that will say ‘NO’ to socialized medicine and runaway spending, and ‘YES’ to allowing our troops and their commanders to make military decisions – not politicians," he declared.

Pearce knows Iraq is the emotional trigger for all that has gone wrong in the nation and why polling shows record numbers feel the country is on the wrong track. His down-the-line support for the unpopular war is a major obstacle to his ultimate election.

Pearce won live TV coverage of his speech on KOB-TV, but he was lucky. He was not ready when the cameras came to the podium at the top of the 4 p.m newscast. But the station came back 10 minutes later when he was ready and carried his entire 10 minute speech. Also, Pearce's wife, Cynthia, was not positioned in the shot with Pearce, losing an opportunity to introduce her to the state and also soften his own tough image.

The congressman also used up valuable statewide airtime by taking several minutes to thank just about every person in the room, all of them unknown to the viewing audience. The 60 year old Pearce found his footing when he got into the heart of his speech.

THE SHAKY STARTS

We have a solid field of contenders for the US Senate, but viewing the last month through the rearview mirror, you can see why Pete Domenici was the undisputed champion. His retirement speech in early October at ABQ's St. Mary's High School Gym came off without a hitch, even as the 75 year old struggled with an incurable disease that has slowed his gait. The advance work for the speech was on the mark and the event, broadcast on all three network TV stations, was as smooth as silk.

Contrast that with the rushed and wobbly entry of Heather Wilson who, barely 24 hours after Pete dropped out, announced in a small hotel room with no message. Then there was Mayor Chavez's ill-conceived decision to announce at a private business. Never a good idea anytime, but especially reckless as the financially insecure Eclipse Aviation bit the Mayor days later by announcing layoffs. And we've mentioned today the Pearce media missteps and questioned the wisdom of Tom Udall showing up on statewide TV and perhaps hurting, not helping, his possible bid for the Senate.

Sure, the candidates were taken by surprise by the Domenici retirement, but their helter-skelter debuts raises questions. Where are all the vaunted and expensive consultants? Didn't anyone thinking of paying a couple of grand and having them help for a day or two? What are the ridiculous amounts of money for? And where are the streetwise congressional staffs?

Pete Domenici knew how to shape perceptions by commanding the public stage with confidence, authority and attention to detail. And his staff responded. The choppy media starts of his would-be successors are an acute reminder of how big the Domenici shoes are. They will not be filled with one fitting.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Former GOP NM Attorney General Hal Stratton ('87-90) ends his public career on a down note with the WaPo hitting hard on Stratton's term as head of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and his acceptance of industry paid trips...The candidates hoping to replace Tom Udall in his congressional seat if he decides to run for Senate are stacked up like cordwood...Photog Mark Bralley took today's political photos over the weekend. A tip of the hat to him...

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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