For Barack Obama it is the beginning. For Bill Richardson it is the beginning of the end. He promised to shock the world in Iowa, and he did, but for all the wrong reasons. His 2% distant fourth place finish had the Alligators starting the countdown clock on when the NM Governor would pull the plug on what appears to be a fatally wounded campaign. The Guv announced he will gamely go on to New Hampshire because he finished in "The Final Four." There's no point in pulling out since that state votes on Tuesday, but veteran NM pollster Brian Sanderoff told me in a post-caucus, post-mortem not to expect much to change.

"He should do better than 2% in New Hampshire, but this Iowa showing is not going to help momentum. It is unlikely his polls (now at about 5% in the Granite State) will show any upward movement. If he is a distant fourth in New Hampshire, there is little reason to expect anything would improve after that."

The Iowa results set the stage for Bill's final act. He told supporters in Des Moines last night that from now on his campaign will be all about ending the war in Iraq, but his strong anti-war position did nothing for him in Iowa and there is no reason to believe that will change as he heads East.

"He lives to fight another day, but there's nothing but desert in front of him," declared pollster and Dem consultant Harry Pavlides. He said one consolation is that Richardson will get to appear in the big Saturday night presidential TV debate, owing to his fourth place finish. That will give him a chance to throw a Hail Mary and try to get back in this thing.

Richardson barely inched by fifth place finisher Joe Biden who registered 1% and announced his withdrawal from the race as did Senator Dodd who finished last. KRQE-TV reported from Des Moines on the Guv's mood.

A BITTER PILL

The Governor's defeat was as bitter as the winter cold of Iowa; it was his first election loss in 28 years. In 1980, he was felled by NM GOP US Rep. Manuel Lujan in what was Bill's first political outing. The Governor, 60, has spent months courting the hard-to-get Iowa Democrats, but never came with a clear message they could latch onto and was passed by the superstar group of Obama, Clinton and Edwards.

The seeds of defeat were sown long ago, in a disastrous "Meet the Press" appearance that infected the national media and blogosphere and which he had difficulty turning around because of lackluster performances in the numerous TV debates. The modern form of campaigning simply did not suit Richardson's demeanor or personality. He is an in-person politician, not an on-camera one.

But the trouble was even deeper. His first wave of TV ads were clever, presenting in an entertaining way Richardson's lengthy resume, but the campaign appeared to be stuck after that, insisting on an experience theme in the face of overwhelming evidence that the Iowa Dems wanted change--major change-- from the politics of the past. In fairness, Hillary Clinton seemed to make the same mistake, faulting Obama's inexperience and seeing the argument fail like a rubber-tipped arrow fired into steel. Richardson's answer was to become the most fervent anti-war advocate this side of Dennis Kucinich, but it did little to separate him from the other candidates who were also firmly against the war, just not as adamantly as the Governor, who also had authenticity issues because of his past support of the unpopular conflict.

HARD TO SPIN THIS ONE

There's not many ways to spin a 2% showing, but the Guv's supporters did their best. They pointed out that Richardson had support of 7% of caucus-goers in the network entrance poll, but he fell to 2% in the final tally because of the complicated rules. Those rules state that a candidate must have 15% support at a precinct caucus or they get no delegates. If they do not have the 15% on the first vote, their supporters go to another candidate or go home. So it's true Richardson had more than 2% in the first half of the game, but it's the final score that counts, and he and his campaign knew that going in.

In a bizarre Election Day development, news quickly spread that Richardson had cut a deal with the Obama campaign that had Richardson's campaign urging its supporters to make Obama their second choice if Bill failed on the first vote to reach the 15% level at their precincts. Richardson flatly denied the deal in network news interviews, but sources in Iowa confirmed that campaign staff had urged them to go for Obama as second choice.

The move was apparently meant to hurt John Edwards who Richardson hoped to replace in the third place position. It played out like one of those debate gaffes that plagued the Guv the past year.

WHAT'S NEXT?

Only a miracle can turn it around now. If there is not a big bounce up in New Hampshire, there will be no money to go on to Super Duper Tuesday February 5th, which includes the NM caucus. He would like to stay in and collect some delegates to take to the national convention, including New Mexico's, but he can't risk being marginalized and treated like a freak candidate.

What seems more relevant than trying to stay in for three more weeks is who Richardson should endorse, if anyone, for the Dem nomination. Was his Iowa Election Day maneuvering with Obama a signal of things to come?

A dignified withdrawal after one last go at it in New Hampshire would seem to best serve the
Governor's interests and his supporters who are already hurting enough after last night's trouncing. He can be proud of his tenacious and untiring efforts over the past year. There is no reason to turn justifiable pride into embarrassment.

HUCK'S LUCK

Mike Huckabee won the GOP Iowa caucus going away, slapping down Mitt Romney by nine points 34% to 25%. New Mexico R's watched intently, but the state's GOP prez primary is not until June and the race will very likely be decided by then. Veteran NM R Bruce Donisthorpe said the Huckabee victory shows "the natives are restless. There is a large cadre of Republicans unhappy with the party's current foreign and economic policies. This vote shows it."

Southern NM congressional candidate Bob Cornelius, former executive director of the Bernalillo County GOP, said not many Republicans are taking sides here. "Right now they can wait and see and avoid offending anyone." He said.

CHAVEZ TO CHALLENGE LIMITS

ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez told KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson Thursday he will challenge the term limits that restrict him from seeking another term in 2009, but the mayor said that doesn't mean if he gets the two term limit rule overturned in court, he will necessarily seek re-election.

"After the end of this term I may say I am going to ride off into the sunset and do something else at this point in my career, but at the same time that may not be the decision. I want to make sure everything is clear to what the options are." Chavez said.

And another politico is going to make a legal challenge. Northern Dem US House candidate Don Wiviott will go to court to challenge the requirement that a candidate get 20% of the vote at their party's March pre-primary convention in order to win a spot on the June primary ballot, and he's asking other contenders to support his move.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

It wasn't even close. Huckabee trounces Romney in the first GOP vote of '08.

Obama has taken 37%, six points ahead of Clinton and Edwards.

Richardson is getting only 2% of the delegates at stake, calling into question the viability of his campaign. He is expected to stay in for next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, but his poor Iowa showing means staying in after that is questionable.

USE THE ABOVE LINK FOR COMPLETE RESULTS

The Richardson-Obama deal is apparently aimed at ensuring that the NM Governor can finish at least fourth in today's voting. Here's the details.

Bill Richardson has joined Dennis Kucinich in directing his supporters to vote for Barack Obama in the second round if they do not achieve the 15 percent viability threshold. Richardson may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign. And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards, who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls.

Here's the New York Times report.

Richardson's campaign will now wait and see if Edwards finishes third in Iowa. If he does, the Governor's strategists believes he will have a chance to pick up steam in New Hampshire on Tuesday. This is a long-shot strategy. Was it born of panic over possibly finishing fifth and being knocked out tonight? More as it develops.

Big Bill fans are sporting brave faces, but beneath the smiles there is major league nervousness over today's Iowa caucuses. The final RCP polling average compiled on Election Eve showed Richardson plunging to 5.0% where he maintains fourth place, but only by a half point over Delaware Senator Joe Biden whose poll average checked in at 4.5%. New Mexico has long known that the Guv's campaign was a long-shot, but has taken pride in Richardson's run as it represents the first major presidential candidacy the state has produced in its 96 year history. With Obama, Clinton and Edwards locked in a tight duel for first place in the crucial caucuses, it's no surprise that lower tier candidates like Richardson are bleeding. People want to be with a winner. But this being crazy presidential politics, even a pretty poor performance by Bill tonight might be spun to the positive side as expectations for him have been crashing. Even Richardson's New Mexico foes will probably join in hoping that Big Bill doesn't finish near the cellar. We've been at the bottom of enough lists to last at least another 96 years.

I'll update the blog tonight with Iowa results and events and have exclusive analysis for you right here on Friday. Today I've posted video of Bill's final Iowa pitch.

ROAD RUNNERS PUMPED

Don't tell those pumped up Road Runners Bill is drooping in the polls. These political junkies could care less as they scour Iowa searching for every last vote. NM Environment Secretary Ron Curry checks in with this.

Joe, Hello from Earlham, Winterset (John Wayne's birthplace and home of the "Bridges of Madison County") and Adel, Iowa. Wind chill is 12 below 0 this morning! I'm "Embedded" out here west of Des Moines with a goal of 800 door knocks and the same amount of phone calls. Two things for sure--No one will out work the Gov. and it is VERY cold.

And Sandy Buffett of Conservation Voters NM says Road Runner morale is high.

...The “Road Runners” started our day firming up our supporters and leaners with reminder calls; in the afternoon we “went deep” for the precincts where campaign staff determined viability (15% of the vote per precinct) could be a concern—it was great, each captain shouted out the exact numbers of supporters we needed to identify to exceed viability...When we hit the targets we would ring a bell and cheer. It was very Pavlovian, but motivating. It's amazing how many truly informed yet still undecided voters are here in Iowa...These caucus-goers want to know every detail on issues. I think I have laryngitis from talking nonstop.

Sounds like fun, doesn't it? Any Election Day having anything to do with New Mexico gets our heart pounding. I can hardly wait for the polls in Iowa to close.

GAL POWER

Here's a group of lady Road Runners meeting up in Des Moines. Pictured from the left is Paula Maes, ABQ school board member; Connie Beimer of UNM Community Affairs; Liz Gutierrez and Lori Martinez. The photo was snapped by politico Jim Baca who is also among the 300 or so New Mexicans breathing that frigid Iowa air. I see they are wearing scarves, but did they bring the green chile stew to keep warm? Not that the weather around here has been like Palm Springs.

EARL'S IN

One guy who my GOP experts say has a better than fair chance of reaching the 20% mark at the GOP pre-primary and making the pre-primary ballot is realtor Earl Greer of T or C. Earl, 51, told me last month he would announce his congressional plans January 2. His word was good as he announced Wednesday he will indeed be a candidate.

Greer made an unsuccessful bid for state Republican chairman earlier this year, losing to incumbent Allen Weh, but he garnered a respectable number of votes and his contacts in the party make his path to getting the 20% easier than the other contenders. Candidates Ed Tinsley and Aubrey Dunn, Jr. are ready to spend money, but they need to muster the 20% at the convention, and money won't replace personal relationships. They will have to build those as Greer has. Earl, chair of the Sierra County GOP, says he is the son of pioneer Sierra County ranchers, whose Hispanic lineage can be traced back to the 1500s. With Joe Cervantes quitting the race for the Democrats, Greer is the only Southern NM US House candidate--D or R--who has a Hispanic background.

CHENEY FOR PEARCE

As promised, VP Dick Cheney will hold a fund-raiser for GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce, following his appearance on behalf of Pearce rival, US Rep. Heather Wilson. Cheney raised about $110,000 for Heather and Steve is also going for some big bucks with his Cheney event. The D.C. Alligators have sent the invitation over for you.

You are cordially invited to a reception in honor of Congressman Steve Pearce, Republican Candidate for Senate (NM) With special guest Vice President Dick Cheney

Wednesday, January 23, 2008
730 15th Street, NW- 10th Floor
5:30 - 7:30 p.m.

Host: $5,000 per PAC/ $2K per Person- photo-op & reception
Sponsor: $2,000 per PAC/ $1K per Person- Photo-op & reception
Attend: $1,000 per PAC/ $250 per Person- reception

THE BOTTOM LINES

Jon Adams, seeking the Dem nod for the Northern US House seat, says he is getting a head start by already collecting the 959 petition signatures of registered Dems necessary to qualify as a candidate. Adams and the other contenders will gather twice as many signatures as necessary to avoid having the petitions challenged by their opponents. Filing day for the three congressional seats and the US Senate seat is February 12th. Do you think any of the candidates will be unable to get enough signatures, shrinking the field that day? Maybe so...

Dateline Des Moines: Terrell is there for the New Mexican. Jones is there for the Journal. Jojola is there for KOB-TV.

Home of the exclusives. Home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments and keep us in the loop.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

It wasn't even close. Huckabee trounces Romney in the first GOP vote of '08.

With 37% of the precincts reporting, Richardson is pulling only 2%. Edwards, Obama and Clinton are still bunched at the top.

Road Runners in Iowa
Rooted on by three hundred New Mexico "Road Runners," Big Bill embarked New Year's day on a two day 13 stop barnstorming tour of the Hawkeye State, hoping against hope that the polls are more witchcraft than science and that he can muster enough strength to push his quixotic presidential bid East to New Hampshire.

The toll the campaign has taken on the New Mexico Governor was evident in TV appearances in which he looked all his 60 years and maybe a few more. In these final hours he will rely on inner passion, adrenaline and strong coffee to carry him across the finish line. If it all ends on the snowy plains of Iowa Thursday night, years from now Richardson may have regrets, but not working hard is not going to be one of them.

The Governor, scrappy until the end, maintained to CNN Tuesday that he is "going to shock the world" with his early primary showings. Hey, as the Prez says, "Bring it on!"

For caucus day, the only event on his schedule circulated Tuesday night was an evening party at a Des Moines Quality Inn, but keeping the gregarious Guv off the campaign trail with even just one hour to go before the voting is as likely as folks keeping their New Year's resolutions past January 5th.

THE FINISH LINE

Can it all end for him tomorrow night? It could if he unexpectedly finished in fifth place. Delaware Senator Joe Biden occupies that slot now, but has been gaining on Richardson. Bill's latest RCP polling average is 6.0%; Biden's is 5%, But Richardson has a better organization than Biden so a fifth place disaster should be avoided. If it isn't, it would be humiliating, would probably mean the end of his campaign before Super Tuesday on February 5 and encourage his opponents at the upcoming legislative session.

Fourth is where for months every poll has had the Governor. He has been unable to crack into the promised land of the top three where he has said he needs to finish, although he has downplayed that in recent days. Fourth place would shred any remaining Pollyannaish hope that Richardson could actually win the Democratic nomination, but at least a fourth place finish is important because it will be the top four finishers in Iowa and those polling at 5% who are invited to the nationally televised Saturday New Hampshire debate whose primary is next Tuesday. That debate would give the Guv one more chance to get in the race.

Top political pros and insiders checking in here say the best Iowa outcome for the Governor--excluding a third place shocker--would be a three way near-tie at the top between Obama, Edwards and Clinton. The theory being that if no frontrunner emerges it keeps second-tier candidates like Richardson in play as the media bills the post-Iowa race as wide open. If Senator Obama takes the Iowa prize decisively, independent voters in New Hampshire are expected to rush to his side, a group of voters that Richardson appeals to and with whom he needs to make a showing. A Clinton or Edwards win is more favorable to the Guv as we head to New Hampshire because their appeal to independents is not seen as strong as Obama's. In New Hampshire, independents can vote in either the Republican or Democratic presidential primaries.

What if the extraordinary happened and Bill came in third in Iowa? Well, is there a bandwagon big enough to carry all the new Road Runners who would want to hop on it? And is there any blogger discounts for those flights to New Hampshire?

TODAY'S PHOTO

Pictured at the top are some intrepid "Road Runners" at Bill's Des Moines headquarters. They are Santa Fe attorney and former Big Bill legal counsel, Geno Zamora, Bryon Paez, lobbyist and former director of cabinet affairs for the Governor and Ramona Martinez, a former constituent services representative for Bill. Zamora ran and lost a bid for the Dem nod for NM attorney general in '06. Paez briefly sought the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat this year. Maybe they will pick up some tricks in Iowa that they can use in a future NM campaign, but if they start talking about how great ethanol is, we'll know they've gone too far.

KEEPING SPIRITS HIGH

Big Bill campaign manager Dave Contarino, working it hard in the climatic hours of the Iowa campaign, has issued this memo touting the Guv's "momentum." The longtime Richardson confidant aims to keep on board Richardson supporters who may be discouraged by the recent polls.

INTO 2008

The struggling ABQ Tribune managed to make it into the new year of 2008, but the executioners axe still hangs over the 85 year old afternoon daily which announced in August that it would close if no buyer was found. Ever since, we've been following this story that could make ABQ a one newspaper town. Here's the latest from one of our top media Alligators:

...Buyout agreements were being distributed at The Tribune Monday (Dec.31). The 33-35 staffers still on board was likely to shrink to below 20, and the remaining employees, hoping against hope that a buyer will come to the rescue, will stay on at 1 1/2 times pay to keep the paper going until a deal with (PR firm) D.W. Turner either consummates or craters. Diehards expected to go down with the ship are likely to number about 15 or so.

Will the Trib, circulation 9,900, be bought and survive in its present form? Stay tuned.

SANTA FE CRIME: STILL A WAVE?

We blogged of the Santa Fe crime wave in 2007 and after a calm period, it seems to be back with us for the new year. I notice Benjie Moñtano is Santa Fe deputy police chief. I recall covering him when he was Santa Fe County Sheriff in the early 80's. He knows the area well and surely does not want to retire seeing crime spiraling. Our readers have given us a variety of reasons for the spike in capital city crime, including an influx of undocumented workers and drug dealers. Can Moñtano, the police chief and Mayor Coss give City Different citizens a safe new year? New Mexico is waiting...and watching.

THE BOTTOM LINES

It's a special trip to Iowa for Jim Baca, former NM Land Commissioner and current acting state Natural Resources Trustee. He tells me his mother is buried in Iowa and he has never visited her grave. He says that should change before he leaves the state Friday after campaigning for his boss...There's yet another candidate for the Dem nod for the Northern congressional seat. He is political newcomer Rudy Martin, who has an axe to grind with Dem frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan. And grind away, he does.

Keep us in the loop. Email your latest news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Just drop us a line. This is the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Joe Cervantes & Teague
Democrats celebrated the new year early as State Rep. Joe Cervantes told supporters in an email message that he will abandon his bid for the Democratic nomination for the Southern NM US House seat, appearing to clear the field for Hobbs oilman Harry Teague. Cervantes' withdrawal comes on the heels of the decision by ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez not to challenge US Rep. Tom Udall for the open US Senate seat, giving Udall clear sailing for the June primary. That contrasts with the R's who have a hotly contested Senate primary and a free-for-all for the Southern US House seat.

Here is a portion of Cervantes' email:

Dear Friends: This Christmas holiday reminded me of the many blessings in my life, including the most important-family. Spending quiet time with my young daughters...made clear the significance of my role in their daily lives. As a result I will not be filing as a candidate for Congress...I have been blessed by the efforts and support of so many friends...and want to thank all of you for your loyalty and trust...

With Cervantes gone, the field shrinks to Teague, Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, Al Kissling, who was beat by GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce in '06, and political unknown Frank McKinnon. Pearce is giving up the seat to seek the GOP nod for the open US Senate seat.

Cervantes has not said if he will endorse a candidate, but Teague is the clear beneficiary of Joe's towel throw. We asked veteran Dem consultant and pollster Harry Pavlides who has long experience in the 2nd Congressional District for his latest analysis.

"With Cervantes gone, there is no Hispanic candidate, so this primary is headed Teague's way. Teague should carry Eddy, Chavez, Lea and Otero counties. That's where the big turnout is. Dona Ana will split among the candidates as will most of the Western counties. The turnout in the Northwest is so low it won't make a difference."

Pavlides and others believe if McCamley stays in he has a decent chance of coming out of the March 15th pre-primary convention with at least 20% of the delegates--the number needed to win a spot on the June primary ballot. Kissling is more iffy, but his chances also improve with Cervantes gone. Money is a major factor. Teague has already raised north of $400,000, including $200k of his own cash. He recently told me he "will spend what it takes." McCamley has raised around $200k. Kissling less than 20k. Raising significantly more for them will be a challenge. Will they stay in for the duration?

SUMMING UP CERVANTES

Cervantes blinked after being in the race just six weeks. Insiders pointed to a number of factors.

--As he said in his email, Cervantes, an attorney, has three young children and underestimated the toll a congressional campaign and career takes on family life.

--Teague is ready to spend whatever it takes; Cervantes may have been reluctant to spend his family's ample agricultural wealth on a race that was not a sure thing.

--Lieutenant Governor Denish was not hiding her support of Teague. One of her chief fundraisers, Steve Fitzer, has gone to work for Teague full-time. Teague, a former Lea county commissioner, told me recently he hopes to have Lady Di introduce him at the March 15th pre-primary convention.

--Then there's the numbers. Polling experts have told Cervantes that a primary win is possible, but a Hispanic Dem winning the Southern seat in November is at best a long-shot.

--Was he promised anything and if so by whom? That's always a question that arises when a well-known candidate heads for the exits.

Cervantes signals that he will seek reelection to his Las Cruces area state House seat and he should have little difficulty winning re-election. But it has been a rough stretch for the lawmaker who has been singled out as a possible future state leader. He joined an ill-conceived and unsuccessful coup attempt against House Speaker Ben Lujan last year and as a result lost his Judiciary Committee chairmanship. Now, he has overplayed his hand on the congressional seat. While the public may not remember these events, his future opponents will. Cervantes' statewide political career is far from over, but his withdrawal, like Chavez's before him, signals to the rest of the pack not to step aside just because he is in the hunt.

THE ROAD AHEAD

While the Alligators think Teague should take the primary unless he commits a major blunder, the fall match-up with the Republican is no walk in the park. "Even a Republican party in disarray will be strong. Party loyalty and conservative voters make for a potent punch." Declared Pavlides.

For now, Democrats are gleeful as they look at a crowded GOP field for the Southern seat and see no well-known names. They would like to believe Teague is similar to Harold Runnels, another Democratic oilman who held the Southern seat in the 1970's. With Cervantes out of the race, the bar for Teague is lower, but he still has to prove he can make the jump. Stay tuned.

FOLEY'S BREAK

Hot-blooded Roswell GOP State Rep. Dan Foley received a late Christmas present as a special prosecutor decided there was not enough evidenceto go forward with disorderly conduct and resisting arrest charges leveled against the lawmaker. Foley, the state House minority whip, was accused of yelling obscenities and otherwise acting up at a basketball game involving his son.

While Foley's legal troubles have abated, his political ones could be on the rise. We broke the news in November that former FBI agent Dennis Kintigh was preparing to run against Foley in the June GOP primary. Insiders say his candidacy is still alive.

BENAVIDES IS BACK

He just goes on and on. Tom Benavides, a longtime former ABQ Dem state senator and a candidate for too many offices to list, is at it again. Tom, who must be in his 70's by now, is circulating petitions to make the ballot for the GOP US Senate race. But if he is to join US Reps Wilson and Pearce on the June primary ballot he will have to score 20% of the delegates at the March pre-primary. That is highly unlikely. But Tom will have fun until then. This isn't the first time that Benavides, known around the state for his distinctive black eye-patch, has sought the Senate seat occupied by Pete Domenici. In 1990, Benavides was the Democratic nominee against Pete, who won with 73% of the vote.

Email your latest news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author