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Friday, February 01, 2008

Now It's Obama's Turn; In City Today, Plus: The Bill & Ted Visits, Also: Exclusive GOP US Senate Poll, And: Candidate Money Reports; It's A Big Blog 

Kennedy in ABQ
He's a phenom and Democratic hearts are fluttering over his imminent arrival. Barack Obama continues the parade of Dem luminaries to our Enchanted Land today with a 1:15 p.m. visit to ABQ's downtown Kiva Auditorium. You can bet the 2300 seats will be filled. Other rooms at the Convention Center complex will handle any overflow. The campaign is calling it an "Economic Summit;" the political junkies are calling it a rock concert. And like a concert, you will need a ticket to get in. Not that you had to pay. You simply signed up on the Net. The page where you did that is already defunct, so apparently they reached their audience goal.

Obama's visit is essential to capitalize on his national momentum. Gallup has him closing fast. Obama says this campaign is about the fierce urgency of now. He can say that again. The Illinois Senator must make all his New Mexico moments count. He does not want to get blown out by Hillary in a key presidential swing state like ours. He needs to show doubting Dems he can compete, especially for Hispanic votes.

Obama today will follow the path laid Thursday by Senator Kennedy and head to Santa Fe after ABQ. He has a 6:30 p.m. event scheduled for the Santa Fe Community College. Some of our experts wanted Obama and Kennedy to take it even deeper into the North. For example:

"He is running into the rumor mill north of Santa Fe. There is word coming out of the churches that he is a Muslim and can't be trusted. Remember, in 2004 many Catholics abandoned Kerry because of his pro-choice position." Relayed one of our political watchers.

But Obama, who is not Muslim, has 22 states to cover for "Super Duper Tuesday" and a two city NM visit is almost a luxury. He hopes Kennedy softened the ground for him with Hispanics and that he can come in today and win many of them over.

In ABQ, the Volvo drivers, the UNM Ivory Tower crowd and the self-described "progressives" are already in Obama ecstasy. Today he must broaden his message to all New Mexicans.

A CLINTON DRAMA

Some political hearts skipped a beat late Thursday when the Clinton campaign put out a news release saying Hillary would be visiting Las Cruces Saturday, but not Albuquerque. Wrong move, cried the Alligators, pointing out that ABQ and the Spanish North is the battleground in this race. Clinton is expected to easily carry the Southern congressional district in which Las Cruces resides. Well, a few hours later the Clintonistas said "never mind." Hill would be coming to ABQ, not Las Cruces, after all. The visit will be Saturday evening, with details to follow.

EXPERT NM PREZ ANALYSIS


The 26 NM delegates that will be decided from the results of Tuesday's Democratic caucus will be awarded by performance in each of the state's three congressional districts, plus the overall statewide results. A candidate must get 15% of the popular vote in a congressional district in order to win delegates. They also get delegates for going over 15% statewide. Experts consulted over the years by "NM Politics with Joe Monahan" say the 1st Congressional District which includes most of Albuquerque is "lean Obama." They say the Southern 2nd CD and the Northern 3rd CD are both "lean Clinton." Delegates are awarded proportionally, meaning Obama and Clinton will both score delegates in each of the CD's as long as they go over the 15% mark. A total of 38 NM delegates, including 12 unpledged, will go the Dem national convention this summer.

BILL IN THE HOUSE

Clinton in ABQ
Bill Clinton drew a couple of thousand to Johnson Center on the UNM campus Thursday. He was flanked by NM Lt. Guv Diane Denish, former NM Guv Toney Anaya, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, State Auditor Hector Balderas and United Farm Workers leader Dolores Huerta. Before he helped Hill in ABQ he attended a $2300 a pop fundraiser at the Santa Fe home of attorney Steven Moise and wife Beth. Our insiders say about 50 to 60 attended. Among those on hand were former NM first lady Clara Apodaca whose husband, former Guv Jerry Apodaca, is supporting Obama. Also enjoying the reception were former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim, Auditor Balderas and Dem heavy Ed Romero.

After raising the campaign dough, President Bill wandered over to the Roundhouse where a brief frenzy ensued. The ex-Prez met with lawmakers in the House lounge. By the way, Lady Di has cut radio ads urging NM Dems to vote in the caucus. The ads do not endorse any candidate. Talk radio giant KKOB-AM is one of the stations airing the spots.

Ted Kennedy spoke on behalf of Obama at the ABQ National Hispanic Cultural Center before heading north. Our photog, Mark Bralley, said about 250 were on hand in ABQ to see the 75 year old Dem legend. His speech went well and was peppered with that old time liberal religion. Teddy later went on to Santa Fe to woo more Hispanic voters for Obama.

THE VARGAS TAKE

We have details on the Kennedy-Clinton visits from the WaPo's Jose Antonio Vargas who is working the NM Prez beat this week. KNME-TV has complete video of the Clinton and Kennedy visits. The station will post Obama's speech this afternoon.

HEATHER SCORES

Heather Wilson scored a sorely needed psychological victory Thursday in her battle with Steve Pearce for the GOP US Senate nomination. The ABQ Congresswoman edged out the southern NM congressman in fundraising in the fourth quarter of 2007. Heather raised nearly $517,000 and now has a healthy $1.1 million in the bank, while Steve raised about $426,000 in the final three months of '07 and has $820,000 on hand for the battle ahead. But Democrat Tom Udall blew the doors off and sent a message to America that New Mexico is leaning Dem on this race to replace Republican legend Pete Domenici. Udall raised a whopping $1 million dollars and begins the epic battle for the power and glory of the US Senate with $1.7 million in the bank.

Wilson has struggled on the early campaign trail, attracting miniscule audiences and not projecting the energy of rival Pearce. Insiders keep harping that voter patterns favor conservative Pearce in the primary. The Pearce spinners say she raised more money in the fourth quarter because she had a couple of more weeks as a candidate than Pearce. But Wilson has always been an adept money raiser. This report reinforces that reputation.

EXCLUSIVE POLL INFO

Heather is going to need every dime she raises and then some if an insider poll has the race right. The survey, apparently commissioned by the state GOP and taken among 500 likely NM GOP voters on January 13th, shows Wilson trailing Pearce 38% to 33% with the rest undecided. The poll was taken just before Pearce went up with his big TV buy which is still airing in the key ABQ market.

Folks, If I get you any more inside these campaigns, you'll be doing the candidates' laundry.

THEY KEEP COMING


The number of Dem ABQ Congressional contenders has now hit five, meaning early favorite Martin Heinrich is going to have his hands full fielding barbs from the other four hopefuls. Former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron will make her run official this Saturday at 2:30 at the ABQ Hilton. Meantime, political unknown Jessica Wolfe, a former cabinet aide to Big Bill, is also running. Insiders say Wolfe has personal wealth that could be a factor.

Filing day for the federal offices is February 12th. Candidates are falling like snow flakes. All we can do is wait for the 12th and see if everyone saying they are running is for real and then start handicapping the outlook.

GREENBACK REPORTS

Darren White
What a day Thursday was. All of the NM Prez campaign activity, plus the money reports in all the congressional races. The reports for the ABQ seat were particularly interesting. Bernalillo County Sheriff and GOP US House hopeful Darren White reported he raised $213,000 and had cash on hand on Dec. 31 of $173,000. The leading Dem contender, former ABQ councilor Heinrich, said he raised about $145,000 in the last quarter of '07 and that his campaign has now raised a total of $465,000 since starting last summer. He has cash on hand of $277,000. Earlier, Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham reported she has about $95,000 in cash.

Among those giving Darren $2300, the maximum for the primary, was ABQ Frontier Restaurant owners Larry and Dorothy Rainosek who gave a total of $4600; auto dealer Don Chalmers gave $4600--$2300 each for the primary and general elections; attorney Mickey Barnett kicked in $2,000 and ABQ PR heavy Doug Turner gave $2300. Heinrich's individual contributors were not yet posted on the FEC site last night. ABQ State Sen. Joe Carraro is also seeking the GOP nod

Political experts are now saying the energy seen in the Dem Prez race may be changing the complexion of US House races, including the one in ABQ. White is well-known, but if a Dem Tsunami develops, even a second-rate Dem candidate could have a chance at finally taking the seat for their party. White's money report was not bad, but neither was it outstanding. Based on Dem turnout in the early primary states and the initial money reports we rate the ABQ congressional race a "toss up," meaning right now there is no clear favorite.

UP NORTH

Now some Dem money action for the northern Congressional seat. First, we hear from Ben Ray Lujan: "Lujan announced his candidacy on December 14, 2007, raised $103,500 during a 17-day period. His campaign currently has $92,246.69 cash on hand, which includes a $50,000 personal loan to his campaign."

Now to Don Wiviott's campaign: "Wiviott reported a strong showing of nearly $300,000 cash-on-hand at the end of the fourth quarter. Wiviott had $299,465 cash-on-hand on December 31, 2007 after fundraising for 19 days in his bid to replace the seat currently held by Rep. Tom Udall." (Wiviott has loaned himself significant money.)

The rest of the crowded Dem field for the northern seat is not yet raising significant cash. We'll keep you posted and will also soon have exclusive analysis of the southern congressional money race.

WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT?

This photo is what it's all about--to be six years old and playing with a President. Megan Montoya is the tyke being doted on by Bill Clinton as smiling grandmother Liz, mother of ABQ biz consultant Dave Montoya, joins the fun. The pic was snapped at the high-dollar Santa Fe fundraiser attended by President Bill Thursday morning. It will be a lifetime memory for Megan who makes her debut in the never ending book of our beloved La Politica.

Kennedy, Clinton and White photos by Bralley. Megan Montoya by the Gators.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, January 31, 2008

America's Top Dems Are New Mexico Bound; Caravan Of Heavies Sarts Today; Bill Clinton & Ted Kennedy; Then Hill & Barack, Also: Pearce's Plays 

The grand finale of the 2008 New Mexico Democratic presidential caucus starts today. And what a show it's going to be. Today alone party superstars Bill Clinton and Ted Kennedy will campaign in the state. Friday Senator Obama supporters will jam ABQ's downtown Kiva Auditorium to hear from a superstar in the making. Over the weekend Hillary Clinton, now an historic political figure, will complete this cavalcade into our Land of Enchantment. The burst of activity is creating enthusiasm in the state's majority party and could boost turnout next Tuesday, despite hard to find voting locations.

No recent public polling has been released on the NM caucus, one of 22 Dem contests to be held across the nation next Tuesday. However, a Clinton campaign insider told me internal polling shows Hillary doing "very well" among Hispanics in NM, Colorado and Arizona. The concern is getting them to the polls and the momentum Obama has built since his big win in South Carolina and the endorsement of his candidacy by Senator Kennedy.

Kennedy, 75, will appear at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in ABQ at 10 a.m. today and then make his way to Santa Fe for a 1:30 p.m. appearance at the Santa Fe Community College. The Kennedys have long political ties to NM, beginning in 1960 when Rio Arriba County political boss Emilio Naranjo helped put the county in the Jack Kennedy column. Naranjo is no longer the boss and he is not with Ted Kennedy on this one. He has a sign in his yard supporting "The Lady Senator from New York."

My earliest NM memory of Ted Kennedy is a 1974 appearance he made on behalf of then Lieutenant Governor Roberto Mondragon who was running against Republican Manuel Lujan for the ABQ congressional seat. The Senator appeared at the old Civic Auditorium for a packed 7 a.m. rally. He held a news conference where I asked him about the then hot issue of busing students around Boston to achieve racial desegregation. He did not like the question.

Kennedy was also here in 2004 for Prez candidate John Kerry. In '82 he came in for then-Congressman Richardson. President Kennedy made a famous 1962 visit to ABQ when he stayed at the old Western Skies Hotel on the eastern outskirts of the city.

To this day in many northern NM households there are photographs of Jesus and President Kennedy side by side. The Kennedys were ahead of their time in advocating civil rights for Hispanics and blacks. The question now is whether Senator Kennedy is ahead of his time in supporting an African-American candidate for President, or has that time finally come?
(Here is video of Kennedy Thursday morning at the Hispanic Cultural Center.)

BILL'S BACK

New Mexico welcomes back Bill Clinton today when he holds a 3 p.m. event at Johnson Center at UNM. He has always liked the state, perhaps because it has similarities to his home state of Arkansas. Both have large swaths of rural areas and one big city, a large number of economically humble households and an obsession with politics, if not necessarily governing.

Bill easily carried our state in his two presidential campaigns. He spent a week in ABQ back in '96 preparing for his national TV debates with GOP challenger Bob Dole. His most memorable visit was in the wee morning hours of Election Day 1992 when he stopped at an airport hangar. Despite the early hour, he was greeted by a mass of adoring supporters. His love of Mexican food, his down to earth personality and his obvious affection for the underdogs of society have endeared him to the Democrats of this state, and not a few Republicans. Can that affection be passed on to Hillary who is working hard to establish a relationship with NM?

THE CANDIDATES LAND

Senator Obama's visit is all set. Expect an overflow crowd Friday when he conducts an "Economic Summit" at 1:15 p.m. Friday at the 2,300 seat Kiva Auditorium downtown. Following that he will head to Santa Fe for a "Stand for Change" rally at the Santa Fe Community College.

I don't know if the Senator has ever been here before, but there is great anticipation for this visit. Polls show an astounding 70% of the American people believe the country is on the "wrong track." Obama's politics of hope, unity and grace stand in startling contrast to what we have seen the past 20 years. The hunger for change has never been greater and Obama is feeding the masses. Democratic hearts swell when they hear him speak. Will New Mexicans be moved to go to the voting booths by this inspiring figure?

Hillary Clinton is expected here Saturday. As much as Obama is an example of inspiration, she is an example of perseverance and determination. Against the odds, she has prevailed and become the first woman to seriously contest for the American presidency. As first lady she visited NM on several occasions. She is well aware of our concerns, having competed on the campaign trail with Governor Richardson. If she makes it to the Oval Office New Mexico would be heard. Will Democrats hear her voice when they walk into the polling places Tuesday?

PEARCE STILL POUNCING

Besides the presidential candidates, the most active statewide campaign around here this month has been that of Steve Pearce's. The GOP US Senate candidate has been up on TV for weeks---the first buy of the '08 campaign---conducting numerous town hall telephone meetings and issuing a bounty of news releases on subjects ranging from tax cuts to interest rate cuts. He finishes January with a bang, reporting that a Wednesday night fundraiser in Santa Fe netted his campaign over $100,000. The event at the La Fonda was hosted by a bevy of energy industry heavies, including the Yates family of SE NM. Here's the official invitation.

Pearce also announced an endorsement by the anti-tax group, Club for Growth. The group gets involved in Republican primaries, supporting who they believe to be the conservative candidate. In this case, they go strongly for Pearce over his GOP rival, US Rep. Heather Wilson.

Steve Pearce has signed a pledge against raising taxes and has honored that pledge faithfully. He voted against every Democratic measure to raise taxes...In stark contrast, Heather Wilson is one of the most liberal Republicans in the House of Representatives and, if elected, would be one of the most liberal Republican Senators. Although Wilson signed the no-tax pledge when she was first elected to the House in 1998, she has broken the pledge numerous times.

The Club for Growth can be expected to raise money for Pearce from its lengthy membership list. Wilson, who still has a significant name ID advantage over Pearce, has been running a much more low-key campaign. But with Pearce continuing to put the pressure on, that could change sooner rather than later.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Late word that Dolores Huerta, head of the United Farm Workers in California, will travel to NM today for the Clinton campaign...

ABQ financial advisor and community activist, Victor Raigoza, will seek the Democratic nomination for State Senate District 10--an area that encompasses parts of ABQ's NE Heights, North Valley, Corrales, and parts of Rio Rancho. The district is currently represented by GOP State Sen. John Ryan.

Would you like to receive our blog directly to your email box when we publish? Drop me an e-mail saying "add me to mail list" and Ill put you on it. The list will receive my daily blogs, occasional news bulletins and special updates. Right now, it's free.

I'm Joe Monahan thanking you for joining me and reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Candidate Money Reports Trickling In; What They Say, Plus: What McCain Called Pete; You Gotta See It, And: The Latest NM Prez Action 

Lujan Grisham
The first important money reports from the batch of candidates seeking NM's three open US House seats aren't due until the end of the week, but a couple are trickling out before the deadline. The latest comes from Michelle Lujan Grisham who met expectations for her fourth quarter '07 fundraising, but did not surpass them. The former Big Bill cabinet secretary filed a Federal Election Commission report that showed her raising about $116,000 and having $95,000 in cash on hand. Grisham is seeking the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson who is seeking the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

Former ABQ city Councilor Martin Heinrich is the leading money raiser for the contest. He had taken in $368,000 as of September 30, 2007. He will add to that when he files his fourth quarter report. ABQ attorney Robert Pidcock is a recent entrant in the contest and former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron is expected to come in as early as this weekend. Also, insiders say we could get yet one more candidate before filling day comes February 12th.

Grisham is hoping her money report will attract attention from such national groups as Emily's List which supports female congressional candidates. She announced her candidacy in mid-October so her $116,000 total is respectable, but her report reveals she was having some trouble attracting maximum contributors--those giving $2300. One maximum contributor was State Rep. Joni Gutierrez of Mesilla. State Expo Deputy Director Rodger Beimer came with $500.00.

THE LUJAN CONNECTION

Lujan Grisham is a cousin to the famous Republican Lujans. Manuel Lujan served as an ABQ area congressman for 20 years; his brother, Edward, was state GOP chair, and headed the Manuel Lujan insurance agency, founded by the brothers' father. Neither of the Lujan brothers are on her FEC report, but an agent of the insurance company did kick in $500 for the Dem hopeful.

Grisham has raised enough money to be taken seriously, her campaigns first goal, but the bar will continue to get higher as she goes forward against a determined Heinrich and an unpredictable Vigil-Giron. Stay tuned.

HARRY AND DI

Dem southern NM congressional contender Harry Teague released his money totals to us earlier this week. Here's a link to all the details, including the $4600 he received collectively from Light Guv Diane Denish and husband Herb.

SUN SHINES FOR MCCAIN

A big night Tuesday for John McCain as he took the GOP Florida Prez primary, beating out Mitt Romney who placed second. Senator Domenici recently endorsed McCain, even though he noted the two did not always get along. Just how much didn't they get along? Take a look at this piece from 2000 that's circulating on the Internet and describes how McCain repeatedly calls Pete "an asshole."

WAITING ON BILL

The WaPo's Jose Antonio Vargas paid a visit to Big Bill Monday and got the inside scoop on all the attention the NM Guv is getting from the Clinton and Obama camps as he weighs endorsing one of them in the Dem Prez contest. Ted Kennedy was among those romancing Richardson. Vargas will also soon hit the national newsstands with a piece on Hispanic voting patterns, including those in NM. I had some Starbucks with him as he was putting that one together on his laptop. Vargas is an up and comer on the national journalism scene. He is only 27, but already a key part of the Post's wide-ranging election team. The political reporter is based in California.

20% OR BUST

Will it take 20% at the preprimary convention for the congressional candidates to make the June primary ballot? A bill to eliminate the requirement is moving around the Roundhouse.

NM PREZ BEAT

A slew of endorsements dominated the NM Dem Prez action Tuesday. The mayor of Las Cruces came for Obama as did former NM Guv Jerry Apodaca and State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Hillary touted her backing from former Navajo Nation Chairman Peterson Zah and released a new TV spot.

The Clinton campaign also provided details on Bill Clinton's Thursday NM visit. They included the 3:00 p.m. “Solutions for America” event at Johnson Center at the University of New Mexico, but they did not mention the Thursday morning $2300 fundraiser at the Santa Fe home of Steven and Beth Moise, but the Alligators told you about that yesterday, didn't they? By the way, Dem heavy Ed Romero is helping to pack them in for that event.

I did Caucus '08 with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson Wednesday. Catch that report here.

About 120 Sandoval County Dems conducted a "straw poll" last night and tipped their collective hats Obama's way--50 for Obama, 41 for Clinton and 28 for Edwards. Northern Dem congressional candidate Don Wiviott finished ahead of Ben Ray Lujan, Benny Shendo and Jon Adams. Wiviott called it a sign of "early organizational strength" but Adams pointed out it was "an unscientific poll" and invited people to call him so he can show them the unscientific poll he recently won. Martin Heinrich topped Michelle Grisham in the 1st CD race. About 150 people attended the event sponsored by the New Mexico Democratic Club and the Democratic Women of Sandoval County.

E-mail us your latest news and political happenings.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

With One Week To Go, The Prez Cup Runneth Over; Barack & Ted Set Visit; Hill, Bill & Chelsea Expected, Plus: Race Analyzed, And: Latest House Action 

Dem Chairman Colòn
The blitz is on. TV ads, door-to-door canvassing, phone banks and in-person visits planned by the top two Dem presidential contenders are all part of the state political landscape as the clock ticks in earnest towards the February 5th caucus. And it wasn't even supposed to matter. But when Governor Richardson dropped out of the White House race and neither Senators Obama or Clinton had put the race away, our state and the measly 26 delegates that will be selected to the Dem National Convention next Tuesday suddenly mattered. A NM appearance is expected on Friday by Senator Obama. Senator Ted Kennedy who endorsed Obama on Monday is also slated for a NM visit. Obama will apparently hit both ABQ and Santa Fe. Initial national media reports had the two senators traveling NM together.

Ex-President Clinton wings in here Thursday for an ABQ-Santa Fe stop. Our Alligators say his visit will include a big money bash Thursday--$2300 a pop--at the Santa Fe home of Steve Moise, an attorney with long ties to the state Democratic Party. Hillary is rumored to make a Land of Enchantment touch down Saturday, but no confirmation yet. A Clinton insider says the campaign is working on bringing Clinton daughter Chelsea into Las Cruces this weekend.

TURNING THEM OUT

Despite all the excitement, we need to revisit the original turnout projections bandied about here that put the number at 100,000 of the over half-million plus registered Dems. State Party chair Brian Colòn says he would be happy to get 40,000 turning out because the grass roots efforts being made by the candidates pales when compared to what was done for the NM Prez caucus four years ago. Then, over 100,000 made it to the special voting sites. An absentee vote total of under 6,000 supports the chairman's view. We had nearly 20,000 early votes in '04.

"They spent in the neighborhood of $2 million last time to get the vote out. That kind of money has not been seen this time around." Colòn said.

We could get a pop, however, from the sheer closeness of the battle between Hill and Barack. Dem voters here will have a real say, along with the other 21 Dem "Super Duper Tuesday" states, on who will be the nominee. Their vote matters. (Dems can find out where to vote here.)

BIG BILL

One of the unanswered questions of Caucus '08 is if and when Big Bill will endorse one of the contenders. We blogged here a week or so ago that insiders were saying that he would indeed, but he still hasn't and some politicos are saying he will not, choosing to play it safe. The Guv's back is somewhat against the wall. If he wants a big national job with the next Dem White House, he may have to come with an endorsement. Don't you think others who want jobs and who are influential in other February 5th states aren't placing their bets as they position themselves for future goodies? If Richardson endorsed a candidate and that person lost New Mexico, it would be a blow to his prestige, but it wouldn't hurt him much politically. He will never again run for political office in the state. (That last sentence is strange to say.)

Other insiders are watching to see how many votes Governor Bill gets next Tuesday. His name, along with other Prez candidates who have dropped out of the race, will still be on the caucus ballot. If he somehow managed to get 15% of the vote in one of the three congressional districts or in the statewide total, he would be awarded convention delegates, something that eluded him when he ran in Iowa and New Hampshire before dropping out.

ASK SANTULLO
Santullo
Bill getting 15% may be a long shot and a novelty story, but we do know Clinton and Obama will easily cross the 15% threshold and each will win a share of the 26 delegates up for grabs. There are no recent public polls, but veteran NM politicos seem to have a consensus view that Clinton, despite Obama's South Carolina win and the Kennedy endorsement, maintains an edge here.

"I do think Hillary has an edge. She is a known quantity. Her husband carried the state twice, and she has important support among establishment Hispanics," commented talk radio host Mike Santullo, a Clinton supporter and longtime NM Dem politico.

Obama has picked up Hispanic support in the progressive wing of the state Dem party. His campaign hopes Ted Kennedy can help him peel away some of the so-called "regular Dems" here.

Will this be the last early NM Dem Prez caucus? Perhaps. It is costing a quarter of a million to put on--a lot of money for a state with only a handful of delegates to hand out. "There will definitely be debate about it," said Chairman Colòn noting he has been busy dialing for dollars to finance all the excitement.

CONGRESSIONAL ACTION


A reliable Gator tells me former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron is planning a formal entry into the fight for the Dem nod for the ABQ congressional seat this Saturday. Can she raise the money to compete? Probably not. Could she get the 20% of the delegates at the March 15th pre-primary to get a place on the June ballot? Hard to tell. Would her getting a place on the ballot hurt the chances of Michelle Lujan Grisham, the other Hispanic candidate in the race? Probably so. Would running give Vigil-Giron some additional name ID as she prepares to run for the Dem lieutenant governor nomination in 2010? Yes. Are her chances pretty muddy for that contest? Yes.

Hobbs oilman Harry Teague has established himself as the man to beat for the Dem nomination for the Southern congressional seat, so why not release your federal financial report a couple of days early? He has. It shows Teague with $362,000 in cash on hand at year's end and having raised over $408,000, including $200,000 he personally put up. That is a considerable kitty and will put pressure on Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, the other name candidate in the contest.

EVEN MORE STUFF

Secretary of Sate Mary Herrera is on the Hillary bandwagon. She officially endorsed Hill Monday. Benny Shendo, former cabinet secretary for the NM department of Indian Affairs and now a Dem candidate for the northern congressional seat, will today endorse Obama. NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici will give a farewell speech to a joint session of the Legislature on February 4th at 11 a.m.

We had e-mail reaction to our blog Monday on passage of the controversial domestic partners bill in the state House. We noted two Republicans, Justine Fox Young and Kathy McCoy, voted for the bill and against their party's line. The measure passed by two votes. ABQ GOP State Rep. Eric Youngberg did not vote, but said he would have probably voted for the measure which his party claims is a gateway to gay marriage. Reader Virginia Stephenson chimes in:

When Republicans are noticed to have voted for gay rights, why is the comment always about the incredulity of Republicans voting pro-gay rights, rather than the courage and integrity of certain Republicans to vote their conscience. And where do you see that the Bill will fail in the Senate? Last year it failed by ONE vote. It promises to be as close this year.

Thanks Virginia. If you have some news or comments, we look forward to reading them in our e-mail.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, January 28, 2008

GOP Misfires: Gay Rights Measure Passes House With Their Help; Media Upset Over Closed Congress Debate, Also: Bill Clinton In ABQ; Kennedy For Obama 

Reps. McCoy & Fox-Young
A pair of Republican Party misfires put smirks on the faces of the Dems this weekend. First, the Dems funny bone was tickled when the state GOP sent out an e-mail missive exclaiming that it only fell two votes short in stopping a domestic partner bill that eked through the state House Friday on a 33 to 31 vote. The e-mail urged party stalwarts to help kill the bill in the Senate. But guess what? Two House Republicans voted for the bill. That was not mentioned in the GOP e-mail, but it did have other R's wondering about the votes of ABQ's Justine Fox-Young and Kathy McCoy. They voted for the measure which the party sees as a gateway to gay marriage. Will their break with party orthodoxy on such a hot button issue prompt Fox-Young and/or McCoy to draw primary challengers this year?

In the case of Fox-Young, she survived an '06 primary challenge after breaking with her party on another key litmus test tissue--the death penalty. She voted for a death penalty repeal measure in 2005. Her primary opponent, former state Rep. Bob White, tried to make hay out of that, saying she had earlier told the ABQ Tribune she was a supporter of the death penalty. Fox-Young easily defeated White. The domestic partner bill is expected to die in the state Senate as it did last year.

ANOTHER MISFIRE

The R's had another misfire. The Bernalillo County GOP went ahead with a debate between ABQ GOP congressional candidates Darren White and Joe Carraro, even though the media was shut out. The Saturday breakfast predictably drew bad press for the contenders. Carraro said he never agreed that he media should be excluded form the debate held under the umbrella of the Bernalillo County Republican Party and hosted by former ABQ GOP State Rep, Rory Ogle. Ogle begged to differ. He told me for a second time Saturday that Carraro agreed to the exclusion. White admits he agreed to the no media rule and did not want to object to the rules so did not protest the media shut out. That struck a sour note with some e-mailers who pointed out the Sheriff is a former TV news reporter for KRQE.

Carraro decried the closed debate, but neither he or White would back down from participating. Dem congressional contender Martin Heinrich pounced on the chance to make merry over the R misfire.

Closing a debate between two candidates for the Untied States Congress may make a few insiders feel like a privileged few but it gave a black eye to White and Carraro and to county GOP chair Fernando C de Baca who remained mum on the entire affair, but who insiders now say will ban "no media" debates.

BILL CLINTON NM VISIT

Former President Bill Clinton will be in ABQ Thursday, the NM campaign of Hillary Clinton confirmed Monday afternoon. National media is reporting that Senator Ted Kennedy will stop in NM for Obama before our Feb. 5th caucus. Bill Clinton will also be in Santa Fe Thursday evening for a $2300 a person reception at the home of Beth and Steven Moise. Insiders tell me a Hillary Clinton visit appears to be in the works for Saturday. Obama is expected to be in ABQ and Santa Fe on Friday.
We are also getting word that Chelsea Clinton may be making a NM stop.

Former NM Guv Bruce King and wife Alice, longtime friends of Hill and Bill, endorsed Hillary over the weekend. Meanwhile, Barack grabbed a big get. Ted Kennedy is going to endorse him. That could help Obama in the Spanish North precincts of NM, where President Kennedy is still revered. The Clinton campaign says it is employing "bilingual" phone banks as it works to seal the deal here.

He was all ready to use his campaign fund to pay off his legal bills, but now NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici has put that on hold. Why? Troubles at the FEC.

SHORT, BALD AND HONEST

One of my favorite campaign slogans was when ABQ attorney Joe Diaz was running for mayor and went on TV and ended a spot by saying, "If you vote for me, I'll fix my teeth." He really said it. Joe had a mouthful of problems. He didn't win, but he got his teeth fixed anyway. Now comes another candidate making fun of his personal appearance in the hope of attracting some attention and votes. Greg Sowards, seeking the GOP nod for the southern congressional seat, titles his Web site: "Short, Bald and Honest." The first two attributes are self-evident. He'll have to prove to the voters he possesses the third.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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