Steve Pearce scored a victory over Heather Wilson at the GOP pre-primary nominating convention, beating Heather Wilson 236 to 197. That gave Pearce 54.51% to Wilson's 45.49%. Pearce had boasted prior to the convention that he would beat Wilson. He gets a solid win, but not the landslide that could have put pressure on Wilson to abandon her run. Pearce will get a bounce among casual Republican voters who know Wilson better and may have expected her to win. The expectations among insiders here and in D.C. will not be impacted much. Pearce was seen as having an edge going into the convention, and that's how it will be seen coming out of it.

In the First District Congressional race, ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro failed to get the 20% to get on the ballot, garnering only 24 votes or 15%. Darren White won 138 votes or 85%. Carraro will have to submit petition signatures to get a spot on the ballot.

Second Congressional District--Aubrey Dunn 40 votes--29.6%, Earl Greer 33 votes, 24.4%, Ed Tinsley 33 votes or 24.4%, Monty Newman received 25 votes, 18.5%; Terry Marquardt received 2 votes, 1,5% and Craig Sowards 2 votes, 1.5%. Greer will appear second on the ballot after winning a draw with Tinsley to break their tie. Newman, Marquardt and Sowards will have to turn in additional petition signatures to win a place on the ballot.

Expectations were all over the map going into the 2nd CD GOP contest, but Dunn did himself a favor by scoring first place. He has been under attack for having only recently switched his registration to Republican. Greer showed that he remains popular with party insiders, but can he raise the funds needed to compete? Tinsley's crowd is pleased that he made the 20% mark and will be glad to put the convention behind them. Sowards has said he will join Dunn and Tinsley in committing several hundred thousand dollars in personal funds. He will need every penny.

Third Congressional District--Marco Gonzales, 91 votes, 67.9%, Dan East 43 votes, 32.1%.

DEMOCRATS

In the Third District Democratic CD 3 --Benny Shendo, Jr. 111 votes, 16.4. % Don Wiviott 200 votes, 29.6 % Jon Adams 16 votes, 2.37 % Ben Ray Lujan, Jr. 271 votes, 40.21 % Harry Montoya 74 votes, 10.98 % Rudy Martin 2 votes, .30 %.

As expected, Lujan won, but Native American Benny Shendo, Jr. was the surprise even though he came up short of the 20% needed to get on the ballot. He will have to get petition signatures to do that. Wiviott's 30% was solid for a first-time candidate, but does not change expectations. Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya came up shorter than his campaign expected. Lujan just picked up the endorsement of the League of Conservation Voters and is expected to soon get the nod of the Conservation Voters NM, two groups that Wiviott could have used for a boost.

In the First Congressional District, Robert Pidcock 25 votes, 4.16 %, Martin Heinrich 339 votes, 56.41 %, Rebecca Vigil-Giron 67 votes, 11.15 %, Michelle Lujan Grisham 170 votes, 28.29%. Jessica Wolfe dropped out to run against ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens.

Heinrich scores the victory, as expected, but not a knockout. Michelle Lujan Grisham surpassed expectations by getting nearly 30% of the vote. If Vigil-Giron were to reconsider running, that could be a significant change in the calculus of the race. Heinrich has a big lead in fund-raising and will be on TV heavy in May. Grisham has to raise more money.

In the Second Congressional District it was Al Kissling 57 votes, 13.41 %, Bill McCamley 207 votes, 48.78 %, Frank McKinnon 6 votes, 1.41 %, Harry Teague 155 votes, 36.47 %.

This is a good win for Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley. He will be inclined to stay and fight even though he will be overwhelmed by Teague's fund-raising. Teague's campaign had lowered expectations going in to lessen the impact of McCamley's win. They will point out that the southern Dem electorate at large is more inclined to support Teague than the activists attending the convention

2:55 p.m.--There was a serious traffic accident at the Bernalillo exit off of Interstate 25 this morning, delaying the start of the Democratic pre-primary convention by half an hour. About 2000 are in attendance at the Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho. Speeches from the congressional candidates are being delivered. Voting is done. Results should be in by 4 p.m.

Political newcomer Jessica Wolfe told the delegates she will withdraw from the ABQ congressional race and seek the ABQ State Senate seat held by Republican Kent Cravens. That leaves four candidates in that race.

On the Republican side, delegates at the convention being held at the Marriott in uptown ABQ have voted on the US Senate race between Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. Votes have also been cast in the race for the ABQ congressional contest between Darren White and Joe Carraro. A candidate must get a minimum of 20% of the vote to make it on the ballot. If not, they will have to seek additional petition signatures to win a spot. We await the results.

Winners at the pre-primary get the top ballot position in the June 3 primary election.

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Will there be any surprises at Saturday's Democratic and Republican pre-primary nominating conventions? Can a nobody become a somebody? Can momentum be built and money be had by turning in an unexpected showing? The pre-primary meetings are watched avidly by the political insiders, but barely noticed by the general public, so there will be no huge bounces. Also, the stakes for the confabs went way down when the Legislature passed that law making it easier for congressional and statewide candidates to get on the June 3 primary ballot. If a contender fails to get the required 20% of his party's delegates, he simply has to submit additional petition signatures and they are on the ballot. But candidates who are chosen at the pre-primary are rewarded with the top ballot positions.

Hopefuls who get the 20% will have bragging rights; those who don't will dismiss the voting as coming from hard-core activists and not reflective of the electorate that will show up to vote June 3rd. We should also mention history. No candidate who has failed to get 20% at a party pre-primary has gone on to win the primary election. That is a precedent that could be ended this year, but it tells us that the eventual party nominees are more than likely to come from those who make the magic 20%.

With all of the above in mind, we head out to the track to handicap Pre-Primary 2008.

US SENATE R'S--We didn't have to wait for any convention voting for the gloating to start in the GOP US Senate primary. Rep. Steve Pearce has already sent out a news release saying he is on "the verge of a huge victory." Pearce's flock began blowing its own horn based on the results of the county conventions which send delegates to Saturday's pre-primary. Now he has to deliver more than a one or two point win over rival Heather Wilson to live up to his pre-game boasting. If he doesn't, Wilson will be crowing loudly and telling the tale to potential donors who are waiting to see the Saturday results. She trotted out endorsements from State Senators Ingle and Harden in a bid for late rural support. Meantime, Pearce says he will be nominated Saturday by a Hispanic Republican. Good moves by both sides, but most votes have been locked down for weeks.

US SENATE D'S--Tom Udall, leaving the Northern House seat to run for Senate, can spend his time polishing his pre-primary speech. Since Marty Chavez dropped out, the Dem deal has been done.

THIRD DISTRICT DEMOCRATS--Ben Ray Lujan has been called "frontrunner" so long in the race for the Democratic nomination for the Northern congressional seat that he could make it his middle name. But like any frontrunner, he will be expected to deliver. Rival Don Wiviott has been working hard and spending heavy. He is the only US House candidate in the state up on TV. He is expected to easily hit the 20% mark. If he goes substantially higher or pulls an upset by coming in first, Lujan would take a hit and perceptions of this race would change. Can a third candidate get the 20%? Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya thinks so and that he will be that candidate. Montoya needs a strong showing to slow the opinion that the Northern race is becoming a two man affair. Other contenders include Benny Shendo, Rudy Martin, and Jon Adams. A 20% showing by any of them would be a surprise and earn their candidacies a second look.

THIRD DISTRICT R's---Rio Rancho contractor Dan East and former Senator Domenici aide and attorney Marco Gonzales should both get over 20%. These appear to be two solid candidates. Unfortunately for them, this district is the most likely to stay in the Dem column come November.

EVEN MORE HANDICAPPING

SECOND DISTRICT D'S--Hobbs oilman Harry Teague is clobbering his opposition when it comes to money raising, but his campaign has spun expectations downward for his convention showing. They say their chief rival, Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, started organizing last summer, while Teague only started late last year. Teague is the Dem establishment favorite and a second place showing is not going to hurt him, but a first place showing will help McCamley. Of course, by saying McCamley will win, the Teague campaign has put pressure on him. If a third candidate were to get 20% in this race, it could be Al Kissling who was the Dem nominee in '06 and is running again.

SECOND DISTRICT R'S---This is the wild and crazy one. Money leaders and Lincoln County ranchers Aubrey Dunn, Jr. and Ed Tinsley are already nuking each other in mail pieces. Dunn's crowd says Tinsley is weak going into the pre-primary and that he might not manage to get 20% of delegate support, despite raising over $500,000 for his campaign, $200,000 of it from his own pocket. Tinsley's campaign is making no predictions, which means he may not be sure of his standing. If he doesn't get the 20%, it will be a setback, but his bank account will keep him in solid standing. T or C Realtor Earl Greer is confident he will be one of the top finishers. He needs to show strength to prevent this race from fast becoming a two man deal. The same goes for Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman.

FIRST DISTRICT DEMS--Money leader Martin Heinrich should have no problem taking the top spot at the pre-primary. Some of his operatives talked of keeping any other candidate from getting 20%, but it appears Michelle Lujan Grisham will breach that mark. Grisham needs the showing to keep alive her position as a favorite of party moderates in contrast with Heinrich's liberal support. The other contenders--Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Robert Pidcock and Jessica Wolfe--are not expected to make the 20% and plan to make the ballot via petitions. Still, Vigil-Giron is a wild card. Could she muster up late support to make the 20%?

FIRST DISTRICT R'S--The campaign between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro has turned bitter and become a proxy for the war between factions of the GOP. But this is really no contest. White has the endorsement of retiring Senator Domenici and other party establishment figures. The issue is whether Joe can get 20% of the delegates and score a moral victory.

The pre-primary voting will take place Saturday afternoon. We'll post the results for you as they come in.

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GOP Chair Weh
The fretting seems to be growing louder among Republicans over what is come in the GOP battle for the US senate nomination. At least that's the impression we had when we spoke this week to the Petrol Club, a Republican leaning group of older ABQ voters. Two of the questions they posed stood out: "Why are all of NM's House members leaving to run for the senate and leaving the state with no seniority?" And, "Should State GOP Chairman Allen Weh be blamed for not putting a stop to the primary battle between US Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce?"

The queasiness is justified. After this Saturday's pre-primary nominating convention, Wilson is expected to start unloading on Pearce. Unlike the Dems, the much smaller and more clubby GOP is not used to intense primary contests. Rather than relish the battle to come, many cling to the slim hope that one of the contenders will bow out, saving the party from bloody, internecine war fare.

As for those questions, the state's three US House members do indeed realize that they are taking all of the state's seniority with them, but they are politicians and they justify it by convincing themselves that they will do bigger and better things for NM In the US senate.

As to the question about Chairman Weh, he is a longtime Heather supporter who would not have the standing to negotiate a deal in which either Pearce or Wilson would bow out. But who could? Neither of them is about to pass on the chance of a political lifetime, no matter how distasteful the prospect is to their fellow R's.

There is still hope that the Wilson-Pearce duel doesn't go nuclear. But Wilson's unfavorable rating among state voters is a very high 47%, according to Rasmussen. (Lower among R's) And the consensus is that she lags the more conservative Pearce. Those signs point to a negative campaign. So the Petrol Club R's and others are bracing for a sight they hoped they would never see--a fusillade of 30 second TV spots in which two sitting Republican members of Congress wage war. It's hard to see a scenario where one of these contenders decides to bow out, but that doesn't mean more than a few R's aren't still hoping.

GAMING THE ACTION

Our blogging buddy at the Washington Post has fun with the congressional races, ranking the ten most likely to switch party control. His latest on the ABQ district reflects sentiment expressed among veteran observers and ranks the GOP controlled seat #8 on the likely switch list.

New Mexico's 1st District: On paper, this district should be in the top five on the Line. Based in Albuquerque, the 1st went for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) by a 51 percent to 48 percent margin in 2004. But, Republicans have a top-tier candidate in Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White while Democrats seem headed toward a tough primary. (Previous ranking: 9)

Agreed, Chris. In this five way ABQ Dem race, there is no candidate with name ID even approaching 50%. The primary is also is starting to get heated with money leader Heinrich coming under fire as his four rivals start to arise. "Tough" is the right adjective for what lies ahead.

What about NM's two other open congressional seats? No national rankings for those but we see the Southern district starting this campaign as lean Republican and the Northern District as likely Democrat.

LOOKING WAY AHEAD

Some politicos are already being forced to place bets on the ABQ congressional race. Valley Alligators report Democrat Cris Sanchez will pass up a run for the Bernalillo County Commission seat held by Teresa Cordova because the retired sheriff's lieutenant is hoping to win appointment as sheriff if Darren White takes the congressional seat. Sanchez lost the sheriff's job to White in 2002 on a 55% to 45% vote. He lost the Dem county commission battle to Cordova four years ago. Maybe it's time Cris thought about appointments rather than elections. If White were to win the congressional seat, the five member commission would appoint someone to fill out his term which runs until 2010.

GLASS HOUSE THEORY
APD Chief Schultz
It's always dicey when non-elected officials try to play on the mine-ridden fields of La Politica. For instance, ABQ Police Chief Ray Schultz was sent out by Mayor Marty earlier this month to blast Big Bill who had just signed a measure that diverted some of the money from the city's controversial red light program to state "He (Richardson) has a scandal-ridden metropolitan courthouse that has to be paid for, and I think that's the bottom line here," Schultz declared.

Richardson allies found the chief's use of the term "scandal-ridden" interesting. They point out that it was a "scandal-ridden" APD evidence room that forced the resignation of the previous chief and paved the way for Schultz's appointment. However, they argue, Schultz never discovered who stole thousands of dollars from the department, and the theft remains unsolved. People who live in glass houses....

THE BOTTOM LINES

We had some trouble correctly spelling the name of GOP Bernalillo County commission candidate Michael Wiener. He was quick to remind us. "Remember it is WIENER (weeeeeener) and not Weiner (Whiner)." How can we ever forget...When we blogged that Sander Rue was running for the GOP nod for the ABQ state senate seat being vacated by Joe Carraro we said Rue had twice been defeated for an ABQ city council seat. Not so. Rue lost one race for the city council and one for NM state rep. He said not to say that he is the "seasoned" candidate. So we won't say it...

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Ben Chavez
There's something for everyone this wild election year, including the Legal Beagles. Their eyes are glued to the developing primary campaign for ABQ district judge between two well-known names--former Bernallillo County District Attorney and newly appointed District Judge Bob Schwartz and his Democratic rival for that district court seat in the June primary, Metro Court Judge Ben Chavez. We hit this one when Schwartz was named judge last month after serving as Chief Prosecutor at the New Mexico Department of Regulations and Licensing. Today we take it deeper.

Can Schwartz, twice elected as a Republican DA in the 90's and who also ran as an R for ABQ mayor in 2001, but is now a Democrat, beat back Chavez, who was the highest rated Metro Court Judge in the 2006 Albuquerque Bar Association attorney’s survey?

Schwartz, a colorful NM politico, as recently as March 2006 was still a Republican and seeking the GOP nod for attorney general, but being turned back at the party's nominating convention. Schwartz was a Democrat years ago, before he became DA. Chavez, son of former NM Court of Appeals Judge Ben Chavez, has the pedigree, but this is going to be a race to watch.

ANALYSIS IN A HEARTBEAT

I ran the contest by veteran Dem consultant Harry Pavlides who was surrounded by a room full of oxygen tanks and prescription medicine as he recovered from open heart surgery (triple bypass) conducted a couple of days earlier. Knowing our political junkie tendencies, he did not protest when we bypassed the niceties and started talking politics. Taking measured breaths of fresh oxygen, he commented:

Hispanics normally win Democratic primaries, but Schwartz is well-known. Chavez will have to spend about $150,000 to pound home his name ID. He will need large signs and TV ads in Spanish and English He should also go door-to-door to gain votes among liberal Democrats to offset Schwartz's advantage among more conservative Democrats in ABQ's Northeast Heights. Chavez will have the edge because Schwartz has usually had trouble raising money, but Chavez is not going to be able to take any chances. This is not a done deal."

So explained Pavlides who called us only 36 hours after his surgery to whisper that he was alive and that he knew that Hillary had won Ohio and Texas. It was hard to tell which piece of information was more important to the 57 year old ABQ native who long ago became consumed by the fire of La Politica.

Schwartz will be limited in getting the free media he is so adept at because the code of judicial conduct restricts what a judge candidate can say publicly, but the R turned D always seems to find away to attract attention. That makes Chavez vs. Schwartz a spectator's favorite, and we're glad Pavlides is going to be around to watch it with us.

VALENCIA COUNTY ACTION

Here's the latest political news from our Gator on the ground in Valencia County:

"Early posting here in Valencia County is that the Republican Party will not run anyone against incumbents State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, or State Representatives Barela and Barreras. Only Andrew Barreras may have Democratic primary opposition and that is uncertain at this time. That's the party line, a wild card Republican could jump in but that's unlikely."

THE WEINER WAY

We've seen candidates announce by skywriting their names, unveiling giant billboards and throwing free feeds, but former ABQ State Senator Michael Weiner found a novel way to make his latest political bid known. He sent along a picture of himself and a friend posing with comedian and NBC Tonight Show host Jay Leno. We don't know what that has to do with Weiner's bid for the GOP nomination for the NE Heights Bernalillo County Commission seat, but it was different. Wiener, 53, lost the same race eight years ago by only 113 votes to Tim Cummins. Cummins is term-limited and cannot seek re-election and is seeking the GOP nomination for the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat held by Democrat Jason Marks.

Weiner is going to have his hands full winning the nomination. R insiders say commercial realtor Chuck Gara is also running. Meantime, maybe Weiner can get us tickets to one of Leno's periodic shows at area Indian casinos.

NO ANOINTING, PLEASE

Politico Andrew Leo Lopez of ABQ's South Valley can always be counted on for a provocative comment. For example, our Tuesday blog on a possible general election contest for the ABQ US House seat between Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White drew this unvarnished reaction.

Anointing Heinrich as the presumptive Democratic nominee for Congress is the kiss of death. Obviously, Hillary's campaign taught nothing to the pundits. Ain't nobody cast a single vote. You are obsessed with how much money a candidate has. Ever hear of brains trumping money.? Try Maloof vs. Wilson. (1998 when Phil Maloof lost the ABQ House seat to Heather Wilson)

Well, it was Republican White who appeared to be anointing Heinrich by referring to him as his "likely opponent," but the point is taken. Heinrich has a tougher primary fight than White. Michelle Lujan Grisham seems best positioned to pull off the upset, but because she may share votes with Rebecca Vigil-Giron in Lopez's backyard it makes it tough, but not impossible. Lopez, not surprisingly, also disagrees with that, saying Grisham will not be troubled by Rebecca...

THE BOTTOM LINES

Our lines Tuesday about the Eliot Spitzer prostitution scandal brought reaction. We said: "Politics is filled with guys who like drinking, gambling and loose women. It's been that way since time immemorial. Spitzer's problem is the usual one in these cases--hypocrisy." Some of the e-mail went like this:

Am I the first woman to "take you to task" for your 1950s take on politics? The politicians are not just straight men. In NM we use "guys" to include all of the genders, I'll grant you, but the "loose women" line made me open my email...Please know how much I enjoy reading you everyday. I like to think that you are in a time-warp and you still wear a hat with the PRESS card stuck in its hat band!

Somehow saying female politicians "like drinking, gambling and loose guys" just doesn't seem to fit, at least not here in the time warp. Gotta go. Time to catch up with my Rat Pack and do some lounge loafing...

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Don't look for an escalation in the personal money wars in the battle for the Southern NM GOP congressional nod. An Alligator in the know reports that rancher Aubrey Dunn, who has given himself $300,000, is not going back to his own bank account.

"Whatever additional funds Dunn needs, he is committed to raising," says our Gator.

Rancher Dunn, who recently unleashed negative attacks on fellow Lincoln County rancher Ed Tinsley, would trigger the federal "Millionaires' Amendment" if he gave his campaign over $350,000. That was the case last week with Northern Dem congressional candidate Don Wiviott who triggered the rule when he upped his personal spending to nearly $600,000. When the rule is triggered the amount your opponents can collect from individual donors goes from $2300 per person to $6900 a pop.

Tinsley says he has spent $200,000 of his own cash on the race. He has $150,000 to go before the triggers the amendment. Dunn's decision to decline an arms race with Tinsley could put Dunn at a disadvantage. None of the Southern candidates is well-known to Republicans in the sprawling district. Expensive TV, say my experts, will be key in this hotly contested battle.. Tinsley has raised over $500,000; Dunn is in the low $300,000 range. He has not yet raised much beyond what he has personally donated.

WHITE VS. HEINRICH

There will probably be hundreds of charges and counter charges between the congressional candidates in the months ahead. Most of them will get scant attention. But we like to note when some of the the first shots are fired in a race. We've just heard them in the contest for the ABQ US House seat. They come from the two candidates seen as likely general election contestants--Democrat Martin Heinrich vs. Republican Darren White. First from White from his Monday fund-raising letter in which he isn't quite ready to say Heinrich's name:

My likely Democrat opponent...is opposed to the Terrorist Surveillance Program and has used the issue to drum up support for his candidacy among extreme left-wing groups. He believes that we should not immediately intercept calls from known terrorists and has even gone so far as to attack middle-of-the-road Democrats who support this bipartisan bill. I believe his position on the Terrorist Surveillance Program clearly demonstrates that his views are out-of-step with common-sense New Mexico values.

HEINRICH RETORTS:

"...I stand with the American people who say fear mongering is not acceptable. Not acceptable from George Bush, not acceptable from Karl Rove and not acceptable from Darren White. I agree with Bill Richardson that we can keep our country safe without resorting to unconstitutional, warrantless wiretaps. I support a strong FISA that authorizes our intelligence community to intercept the communications of foreign terrorists, not American citizens minding their own business.

White's "common-sense values" may sound familiar. GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson, who White is trying to succeed in the House, is now calling herself the "common-sense conservative." The White and Wilson campaigns seemed joined at the hip with both getting the backing of operatives from the camp of retiring Senator Pete Domenici. State Sen. Joe Carraro is also seeking the US House GOP nod. Steve Pearce is Heather's opponent for the GOP senate nomination.

Heinrich wrapping himself around Big Bill seems aimed at positioning himself with a popular Democrat seen as centrist. Heinrich's supporters (those who have been in the game awhile) fear he will be unable to grow out of his liberal base and White will take the prize in the moderate district. White's first strike is on territory--foreign intelligence--that is friendly to the Bernalillo County Sheriff. It will be on issues like the economy and health care where the D's will be more on the offensive and where White may be vulnerable. Heinrich has four opponents for the Dem nomination.

Also, the political pros are writing the early line on possible character vulnerabilities that could be used against the two contenders. Dems see White as weak in issue knowledge and needy for TV cameras. R's see Heinrich and his acolytes as thin-skinned and ready to lose their cool. That ought to wake up the operatives :).

LOUSY LUCK

Talk about lousy luck. As soon as the Eliot Spitzer prostitution scandal story broke Monday, Matt Drudge posted this picture on his Web site. It shows Spitzer close-up, but if you look carefully, you see our very own Big Bill in the background. It appears to have been taken at a recent national governors meeting. The Drudge site was getting a huge number of hits yesterday and this photo was emailed to use by a number of our readers. Bill has nothing to do with the Spitzer story, but he might want to shave his beard now.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Politics is filled with guys who like drinking, gambling and loose women. It's been that way since time immemorial. Spitzer's problem is the usual one in these cases--hypocrisy. He preached against what he practiced. It's a story played over and over again in the history of La Politica. It will be so after you and I are long gone...

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Big Bill didn't cross the line, but he brushed right up against it when he indicated he was not pleased with regulators who handed electric consumers a break by trimming PNM's big rate increase request. The semi-obscure state Public Regulation Commission (PRC), which will make a final decision in May on the rate hike, is independent of the executive branch, composed of five elected members. By saying he wants the PRC to make a "careful decision" some observers felt the Guv might have actually hurt PNM's cause. From the e-mail:

"Richardson is a day late and a dollar short. He should have made his case BEFORE the recommendation was made. Don't be surprised to see PRC dig its heels in just to make it clear the PRC is beholden to no one."

The Guv's pro-PNM tilt--he is friends with PNM CEO Jeff Sterba--may fall on deaf ears with Commission Chairman Jason Marks who is up for re-election this year and Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, who is seeking the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat. Not supporting a staff decision that gives major relief to state consumers wouldn't seem a wise way to gather votes. The three other commissioners may be more susceptible to a bigger rate hike. However, if they grant it, they may look like their strings are being pulled by the Governor as they hand consumers a bigger light bill to boot. Those are issues that might not be forgotten. Big Bill can't seek re-election, but showing sympathy for PNM while consumers face a sour economy might not help his approval ratings, particularly with his own Democratic party.

THE POLITICS OF PNM
CEO Sterba
PNM is a company on the rocks. Its stock price crashed nearly 20% Friday when PRC staff recommended to commissioners a $24 million rate increase, not the $77 million the company wanted. PNM has already announced it is laying off five hundred employees, 15% of its workforce. It has also announced it is selling its natural gas division to "better focus" on providing electricity. PNM also formed an investment alliance with billionaire Bill Gates through his Cascade Investments. It has been a money loser.

CEO Jeff Sterba says the company needs the larger rate increase "to provide the safe and reliable service our current and future customers expect and deserve." He adds that rejection of the full rate increase request "limits our ability to invest in the renewable power we believe our customers want us to develop."

There is a way to get a large chunk of the money Sterba says is needed to provide for its customers--cut the dividend being paid to shareholders. PNM stock is trading down nearly 75% from its 52 week high. An investor buying a share today would get a dividend yield of nearly 10%, clearly an unsustainable level. Cutting the dividend in half would give the company over $25 million in additional annual cash.

The political and economic climate is shifting. Capital and business have ruled supreme for several decades, but now a recession looms; money is tight. The tide is shifting. Rather than being protected from the storm by a sympathetic Governor, PNM may have to join its customers and start biting the bullet, or welcome business suitors who can.

ON BEING A DEMOCRAT

When you're running in a primary election, party loyalty is no small deal. Primaries tend to attract hard-core loyalists which is why a perennial issue in them is what party you have belonged to and for how long. In the case of political newcomer Tim Keller, seeking to unseat longtime ABQ SE Heights State Senator Shannon Robinson, the issue has some legs. The 30 year old Keller is running as a "progressive Democrat" against the established Robinson, but confirms that when he first registered to vote, in 1996, he did so as a Republican. In, 2000, he was a college student and re-registered as an independent. It was not until February of '06 that Keller became a full-fledged member of the party of the donkey.

"I have never been active in Republican Party politics, or anything like that. My father was a Republican and he took me down to register when I was 18...I was not involved in politics as a youth...I'm the new guy." Keller said.

Keller also says he hasn't voted much as an adult. He especially regrets it in the case of the Wilson-Madrid '06 ABQ congressional race in which Republican Wilson was re-elected by a margin of less than 900 votes.

Keller, an ABQ native, may have only recently strengthened his Democratic credentials, but his campaign platform is solidly liberal and will have appeal to primary voters. They can weigh that along with his registration history.

THE ILLINOIS HOPE

We continue to hear many Dems fret over their prospects to take over the ABQ congressional seat which has been held by the Republicans since its inception in 1968. They hope a strong national Democratic trend will sweep the nation and sweep them into the ABQ seat. They think they may need it to topple likely Republican nominee Darren White. Over the weekend the D's were given a reason to hope. In a special election, the Democrat won the Illinois House seat being vacated by former GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert. Republicans insist the election does not signal a Dem tidal wave forming for November, but you gotta believe hey have their wet suits at the ready.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Northern Dem congressional hoepful Don Wiviott may have a hard time getting people to pronounce his name right, but they will get a chance to try. A judge has thrown out a lawsuit from Wiviott rival Jon Adams that could have kept Wiviott off the June primary ballot. Adams could appeal.

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