Pete & Pearce
Steve Pearce got the picture he needed--side by side with retiring GOP US Senator Pete Domenici who gave the southern NM congressman his blessing and announced he would take to the campaign trail with him for the final push in October. Also along for Pete's endorsement ride was US Rep. Heather Wilson who benefited from Pete's nod in the June primary, but not enough. Back then, Pete awkwardly disclosed just four days before the primary that he was backing Heather and did no major media; this time he will come with the Full Monty.

It was essential for Pearce to not have only a tepid news release of the Senator's support, but to get Pete before the TV cameras to establish an emotional connection between himself, the Senator and the New Mexican electorate. (Extended video here.) NM's longest-serving Senator still retains a moderate image in the state, despite straying to the right during the Bush administration. Pearce, perceived as too far right to beat Dem Tom Udall, badly needs voters to see him as a more Domenici-like Republican. Domenici can open the door, but ideological Pearce is going to have to walk through it.

By doing the news conference, agreeing to campaign with Pearce, cutting a TV ad for him and hosting a $500 a person lunch following the endorsement, Domenici has signaled that he will do more than go through the motions.

Even if Domenici's work means only that Pearce loses to Udall by a smaller margin, it could make a difference in the all-important NM presidential contest where McCain needs every R excited and ready to go to the polls. At 76 and ailing from an incurable brain disease, the lion is in his winter years, but still with work to do this fall.

OBAMA, BILL & THE SPECIAL

Obama will be back campaigning in NM Monday, just a day after Hillary Clinton comes here for two fund-raisers put together on her behalf by Big Bill. She'll also have a rally in Espanola for Obama. That happens at 2 p.m at the Northern NM College campus. Hill will be in ABQ and Santa Fe Sunday. No news yet on where Obama will be, but expect details to break over the weekend.

Governor Bill is sure to be on hand to greet Obama Monday. We wonder if he'll discuss with him his Dem convention speech set for the third night of the Denver confab. For sure, the Guv hopes the special session of the Legislature, set to convene at noon today, will be done by Monday or at least going smoothly when Barack sets down here. To that end, the Guv is still trying to salvage his tax rebates, now slimmed down in the face of crashing estimates for the state's oil and gas surplus.

CUT THROATS? CUT A CHECK

What do you do when your opponent says your Iraq policy means you "would cut the throats" of our troops. Why, like everything else in a modern campaign, you raise money from it. That was southern Dem congressional hopeful Harry Teague's response to the over-the-top comments made by Republican Ed Tinsley at a Clovis forum and which made national headlines. "Will you contribute to our campaign to help us build the resources we need to respond to these outrageous attacks? If you contribute now, your contribution will be doubled by a group of outraged Teague supporters." Said a Teague fund-raiser appeal.

Tinsley's remarks, fine fodder for the liberal blogosphere, had Ed being named MSNBC's Keith Olbermann "Worst Person in the World" Wednesday. Tinsley admitted his words were "harsh" but worth it if they convinced Teague to not call for an immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq.On his Web site, Teague says of his Iraq policy: " In Congress, one my first commitments will be to fight on behalf of our troops by bringing them home as soon as possible, and as safely as possible."

Political observers in the southern district said the remarks could hurt Tinsley if Teague is able to use them to raise questions over whether the former head of the National Restaurant Association has the temperament to be a congressman. Oldtimers recall that the last Democrat to hold the southern seat, Harold Runnels, used the temperament issue in his 1970 campaign against incumbent Ed Foreman, painting him as a hot head. Of course, Foreman actually got into a fistfight on the floor of the US House with a Texas congressman. Tinsley has a long way to go before he matches that behavior.

CLASSICAL MASSACRE

We're on the media beat with this e-mail making the rounds from Pamela Chavez of the Don Chalmers auto dealerships. It details a recent shake-up at ABQ's classical music station KHFM-FM.

The departure of first Bob Bishop, then Lindy Gold, and now Kip Allen cannot go unnoticed as a great travesty. Their commitment to KHFM of 15 years, 12 years and 21 years have illuminated our communities with...broadcasting excellence...They have worked tirelessly to make sure that the claim on the KHFM website is true: that KHFM has "grown to become the highest-rated classical station in the country."...I count myself among a great number of grieving KHFM listeners, deeply disappointed at the recent actions of the administrative managers of KHFM. I will miss listening to the station.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Reader Micheal Turk E-mails in from D.C. with a correction of the first draft of Wednesday's blog: Joe wrote: “A top D.C. Republican was in ABQ this week, giving a pep talk to local R's who worry about a Democratic tidal wave costing them the US Senate seat and two of the three US House seats they hold.” Republicans don’t hold three House seats. They only hold two. That should have read. “…costing them the US Senate seat and the two US House seats they hold.”

We know that, of course, but didn't get it to come out right. This reminds us of when we only had two congressmen, before 1983, and even further back to before 1968 when the two NM congressmen ran at-large. Will we get more congressmen? Not anytime soon. The pros who monitor such things tell us it will be 2030 at the earliest that NM would be eligible for another US House seat...Also from the D.C. area, Bruce Willis of Responsible Trails America thought this Washington Post piece on "Off-Road Rage" with a Farmington dateline would be of interest. It's all-terrain vehicles, bicycles and broken ribs.

Thanks for tuning in this week. Send your news and comments via e-mail.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Ed Tinsley
It wasn't supposed to be this way. According to Republican Alligators, it was "country bumpkin" Harry Teague who was going to trip over his tongue and knock himself out of the race for the Southern NM congressional seat. But lo and behold, who was front and center in the American liberal blogosphere Wednesday for an over-the-top comment on the Iraq war? Why, it was smooth talking GOP congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley. Here's the gift horse of a sentence Tinsley uttered Aug. 7 at a Clovis candidate forum and that was soon flashed across the World Wide Web on sites such as the Daily Kos and won Tinsley the not so coveted "Worst Person in the World Award" from MSNBC talk host Keith Olbermann.

"How am I supposed to call my two nephews over there right now... and tell them I'm running against a guy who will cut your throat." Tinsley said.

Tinsley's comments came before the Association of Commerce and Industry and were edited and released by the state Democratic Party.



Here is the complete forum as presented on the KSNM Radio Web site.

While Dems were ecstatic over what they perceive as a major campaign gaffe, Republicans were more understanding toward Tinsley, saying the comments might have the liberals jumping for joy, but they are not going to fatally injure the Capitan rancher in the conservative south. Tinsley's campaign statement is below, but first here's Keith Olbermann awarding Ed his worst person pick.



Tinsley made the comments at an Association of Commerce and Industry joint appearance with Teague. That's a conservative group, but even there Ed drew boos and hisses for the remarks. Last night, as his fledgling campaign based in Ruidoso absorbed the national shock waves sent forth by the liberal chattering class, Tinsley released this reaction:

“What I said in the August 7 candidate forum regarding funding of U.S. troops in Iraq were no doubt harsh words. However, if these words caused my opponent to change his mind to support funding that provides necessary body armor, weapons and other equipment to help our troops in harm’s way to achieve their mission--and to not demand immediate withdrawal--then they were well worth it.”

This video is of interest on another level. Ever since Teague came with TV spots in the June primary that did not have him speaking on camera, he has been shadowed by talk that he is not ready for prime-time and that Tinsley will roll over him in public appearances. But Teague more than holds his own in this video, not at all like the country cousin he has been made out to be.

CUT TO THE CHASE
Sen. Feldman
Rather than have Attorney General King dancing around with Secretary of State Herrera over having political nonprofits like the Center For Civic Policy release the names of their donors and their expenditures, why not have the Legislature pass a law mandating disclosure? Look for such a measure to be introduced in January.

After being chided by critics and reporters, the Center released to the ABQ Journal the names of the foundations that have given it money, but refused to release the names of individual donors. Political observers are still trying to digest the stunning amount of money--$1.645 million--that political operative Eli Lee, who runs the Center, says it will take in over a two year period.

Dem State Senator Dede Feldman has been in the forefront of campaign finance reform. Would the ABQ North Valley lawmaker be willing to sponsor a full-disclosure measure? We're just asking.

THE R'S BIG ERROR

Republicans have plenty of things to kick themselves over this election cycle, so adding one more to the list probably won't hurt too much. But it deserves mention. With all the problems Democratic Public Regulation Commissioner candidate Jerome Block, Jr. is having, why is there no Republican in the race? It's especially bad because there is a Green Party candidate for the seat, Rick Lass, who could take votes from Block by appealing to Dems concerned with Block's past. That would mean the Republican could come up the middle and take the heavily Dem seat.

It happened in '97 when Bill Redmond took the northern congressional seat when an ethically challenged Dem was nominated and a Green was also in the race. But there will be no repeat of history in 2008. The R's failed to field a PRC contender. So, if GOP Chairman Allen Weh is looking for a reason to kick himself, he has one.

BRING CASH, PLEASE

A top D.C. Republican was in ABQ this week, giving a pep talk to local R's who worry about a Democratic tidal wave costing them the US Senate seat and the two US House seats they hold. But Rep. Tom Cole, chair of the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (NRCCC), could offer little more than talk. While the campaign arm for House Democrats is pledging $1.3 million in TV for Southern Dem Harry Teague, the NRCC simply says money will come for Republican Ed Tinsley, but hardly anyone believes the committee, with only several million in the bank, will dole out much cash to Tinsley. In fact, one school of thought has it that Tinsley, independently wealthy, is expected to write his own check if he can't keep the upper hand in the Republican lending district.

Darren White is not independently wealthy and the question of national R donations for the ABQ US House GOP nominee is more serious. National Dems have pledged a $1.2 million TV buy for Dem Martin Heinrich. Cole attended a fund-raiser for White at the ABQ Four Hills home of Mickey Barnett, the lawyer-lobbyist, who has been a player in NM GOP politics for many years. But there was no announcement of funding for White. His supporters are eyeing the Republican National Committee coffers where over $50 million rests. They hope that some of that cash will find its way to ABQ and White.

It's hard not to believe that White will not end up getting national R help as well as significant third party support in the form of TV ads, but there is no guarantee. The Bernalillo County sheriff opted not to run any TV ads in the June primary, saving his funds for the general election, and he has already been slightly outraised by Dem Martin Heinrich, according to the latest finance reports. White, however, has more cash in the bank.

By the way, why aren't Heinrich and White pounding each other into the cement?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Bob Gallagher, head of the NM Oil and Gas Association, is still a Democrat. We lumped him in the category of "Republican heavyweight" when we posted a list of hosts for today's Tanoan Country Club lunch for Steve Pearce featuring GOP Senator Pete Domenici. So why is Dem Bob supporting R Steve? "I believe Udall is running against my industry instead of Pearce, and I cannot sit back and take that..."

The matanza tradtion is alive and well in New Mexico. ABQ South Valley brothers Steve and Dickie Gallegos will put the pig in the ground this Saturday afternoon as they host Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall. The matanza will be at the home of Diego Gallegos and Theresa Archuleta...

E-mail us your news, comments and whatever else is on your mind.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The Guv
New Mexico's political elite was backed into the proverbial corner Tuesday. New revenue estimates trimmed a stunning $175 million from the state surplus--or nearly 50% from earlier projections--jeopardizing those promised feel-good tax rebate checks and raising questions about the political judgment of Big Bill as he heads deeper into his lame-duck term as Governor.

Despite a new forecast that says the state will have $225 million--not a $392 million windfall because of high oil and natural gas prices--Bill and his sometimes arch-foe, Legislative Finance Committee Chair and Deming State Senator John Arthur Smith, insisted they could save the rebates when the Legislature is gaveled into a questionable special session this Friday. Said Smith to the AP: "Rebate is about the only kite that will fly right now." (Some estimates have the surplus even lower--down to the $100 million level.)

Those rebates are now not going to be anywhere near the average $200 that each taxpayer was originally promised by Bill. Cutting the cash giveaway is not going to do much to improve his sagging approval ratings and certainly is not going to impress the powers-that-be in the Obama camp who are assessing the Guv's abilities for a big job if Obama moves to Pennsylvania Avenue.

There's some other stuff on the special agenda--health care measures and road repair money--stuff that could easily wait for the regular session, but with the Guv locked into the special, no one wants to say the emperor has no clothes. For damn sure, he doesn't have very much money.

Even though Smith has no re-election opposition, many of his colleagues do. Asking them to come to their senses and cancel the special and the rebates is like asking an Aggie to love a Lobo. It ain't gonna happen. So they will gather Friday to disperse what is rapidly becoming a paltry surplus that they hope isn't eroded even further by declining energy prices. When you do get your 50 bucks in the mail, or whatever it comes to, you are advised to run, not walk, to the bank. The New Mexico cash cow is starting to run dry.

SENATE ACTION
Udall
After hearing an anti-Pearce radio ad from Udall Tuesday, we wondered aloud here if Udall would hit back at Pearce on TV. The answer is yes. Udall has put up this ad tying Pearce to unpopular President George Bush. It's called the "Middle Class Squeeze." It doesn't directly address Pearce's TV criticism of Udall's energy positions, but broadens the attack against the southern NM congressman on the key economic issue. It is Tom's first negative TV against Steve.

Udall went dark on TV for a week or so, but even then a third party attack on Pearce was and is in heavy rotation, making sure that Udall was not defenseless. What is showing now is the financial imbalance in these campaigns. Pearce's TV is much more scattered than Udall's. Does Pearce have enough points up on the air to move the numbers and attract campaign money? Will his "radical environmentalist" message about Udall resonate? Will the conservative Club for Growth come with big third party TV money for Pearce as they did in his primary and as they are now doing against Tom's cousin, Mark Udall, in his Colorado Senate race? As usual, we have more questions than answers.

PETE'S TIMING
Pearce
Maybe it's in in the eye of the beholder. We see Senator Domenici's endorsement this week of Pearce as coming soon enough for Pearce to raise decent money from it and to help him unify a GOP that was divided when Pearce faced-off with Heather Wilson in the June primary. Some e-mailers pointed out that Pete's nod will come over two months after the primary and claimed it shows he remains unexcited by the Pearce candidacy. But Domenici was in no position to endorse Pearce in June. Was he going to turn around just days after endorsing Heather and rub nerves raw by coming for Pearce? Also, coming so soon would have made Domenici look like the opportunist of the year.

On this one we see the glass as half-full, remembering how Pete came for Heather with only days to go in the June primary. If Domenici did the same for the general, that would mean Pearce would be getting a late October endorsement. From that perspective, Domenici's mid-August nod to Pearce looks pretty good. But it's not just Pearce that Pete has on his mind. If Pearce fails to put up a good fight, Obama will have a much easier time with McCain. A strong Pearce benefits McCain and the state's other R congressional candidates. Domenici does not want to leave the stage to catcalls that he did not do enough to help Republicans stave off disaster. In the end, it is as much about Pete's legacy as it is about supporting Pearce.

One of the biggest challenges for Udall is to keep his supporters--especially those on the far left--from their "this race is over" mentality. There is no question that Udall is far and away the likely winner, but campaigns can change on a dime. We sense the Udall's camp is well aware of that dynamic, but the message hasn't trickled all the way down.

QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNTY

How about that $42 million plan by Bernalillo County to buy a big downtown building for office space? They had barely announced it when they were meeting last night to vote on it. Slow down, said the lawyer for some of the commercial tenants in the landmark 500 Marquette building, not the least of which is whether taxpayers are getting a good deal. In a letter to the commission (click to enlarge) he asked on behalf of his clients that the commission take one month to study the issue before committing taxpayers. But no luck. The commission voted 4 to 1 to float revenue bonds and get on with it. How about that? Six days to put together a $42 million deal. Isn't that special? Some supporters of Public Regulation Commissioner Jason Marks are already wondering. He is being challenged by Republican Tim Cummins who sits on the county commission. Could the hasty and expensive building purchase become a campaign issue? We'll see.

KING'S LETTER

Attorney General Gary King has written a second letter to the secretary of state regarding those controversial political nonprofits and whether they should be required to be registered as political action committees and report all their donors and expenditures. King's office is set to meet with the secretary's staff Friday. Text of the new letter containing King's legal advice to Secretary Herrera has not been released, but insiders told us last week King would "come out swinging" on the issue. The Center for Civic Policy, run by political operative Eli Lee, told the ABQ Journal his group will have raised a stunning $1.645 million in two years. An affiliated group, NM Youth Organized, has been mailing hit pieces out on NM legislators, but claiming nonprofit status. King says the lit is clearly campaign lit, not lobbying or educational material as is required of nonprofits. Will the secretary demand that the nonprofits in question re-register as PAC's and require them to fully disclose their funding sources? If not, are we headed to the courts? Stay tuned.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

The national Dems are not letting a third party radio attack on Dem Heinrich's energy stance go unanswered. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has bought radio time to defend Heinrich and hit White.

Meanwhile, the R's opened a new line of attack on the Dem US House hopeful. They put out a flyer saying Heinrich "fought against Westside roads and bridges." They cited his opposition as a city councilor to extending Paseo del Norte and the four-laning of the Montano bridge. Heinrich is going to have to come with a strong defense. The Westside is loaded with middle of the road Democrats, many of whom have in the past voted for Republican Sheriff Darren White.

PETE IS HUNGRY

Senator Domenici won't be on a diet this week. We told you about the Thursday Tanoan Country Club lunch he is having for Steve Pearce, and today he dines with ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White. The ABQ Marriott lunch with Pete is going for $150 a pop, considerably more than those $25 a pop coffee klatches the sheriff has been having.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We are well into covering our second generation of New Mexican politicos, and sometimes it shows. We referred to state Senate candidate George Munoz Tuesday as the former mayor of Gallup. He gently reminds us that it was his dad, Edward Munoz, who was mayor there for 16 years and who passed away in 2006.

I don't recall who the mayor was in 1971 when I first encountered Gallup on my 125 cc Kawasaki motorcycle, but I vividly recall attending the annual Inter-tribal Indian Ceremonial which had its start in 1922. Quite the sight for someone fresh from the Pennsylvania coal mines.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Domenici
While GOP US Senator Pete Domenici's endorsement of Steve Pearce for the Senate seat that he will vacate at year's end was as expected as the summer monsoons, the timing is worth noting. Pete will come for Steve at a Thursday morning news conference. Unlike the GOP Senate primary when Pete issued a last minute endorsement for Heather Wilson, who ended up losing to Pearce, Pete is coming early enough for Pearce to actually help him. Not that Domenici's endorsement is going to persuade many voters to join the Pearce bandwagon, but if he agrees to make himself available, Domenici could be very useful in raising badly needed campaign funds for Pearce and also at healing the rift between the top players in the Pearce and Wilson camps.

Pete damaged Pearce's image by giving that last-minute Heather endorsement and he may have also hurt his own legacy by picking the loser. If Pearce can somehow pull off a US Senate upset, Domenici backers will spin that he picked the winner while headed out the door.

And it isn't taking long for Pearce to take financial advantage of Domenici's forthcoming endorsement. Immediately after giving Pearce the nod Thursday morning, Domenici will host a $500 a person "private luncheon" for the southern NM congressman at Tanoan Country Club. A variety of GOP heavyweights are joining Pete. You can see who by clicking on the image.

TOURING WITH TOM

If Tom Udall can hold down Steve Pearce's anticipated margin of victory in the southern congressional district, the Dem will be that much closer to taking the US Senate prize. He's been spending a lot of time there and is headed back this week.

Today Udall kicks off a swing through the 2nd congressional district at Sunland Park. Next week, Udall will work the ABQ area with a couple of side trips to Cruces and the east side.

By the way, Udall is responding to Pearce's TV hit over his energy polices on the radio. We heard a spot paid for by Udall on KKOB-AM radio Monday. We have not heard of any negative TV from Udall to counter Pearce, but we will keep posted.

TEAGUE WILL TALK

Has southern Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague taken the debate issue off the table once and for all? It appears he may have as Teague announced he will take part in three televised "debates" against his GOP rival Ed Tinsley. The first one will be this Friday in Portales at the NM Municipal League meeting and will be broadcast on public TV station KENW. It is not a prime time event, however. It will start at 8 in the morning and also be broadcast on the KNME-TV Web site in ABQ. Also, Tinsley's campaign says this is not really a debate but a "joint appearance" at which the candidates will not be allowed to ask each other questions. Teague also is confirmed for a KOAT debate on October 19th and for one on KRWG-TV, the public station in Las Cruces, on October 9th. The Tinsley campaign says only the KOAT debate is confirmed.

Tinsley has been focusing on debates, pressuring Teague for a multitude of them both televised and non-televised. Consultants say he is doing so because, among other things, he thinks he comes across better than Teague, a Hobbs oilman. But Teague may have little to fear if he does his homework and doesn't worry about trying to act like someone he isn't. Southern New Mexicans are not adverse to homegrown candidates, just ill-informed ones.

MOVING THE TARGET
Teague
Perhaps sensing the debate issue has played itself out, Tinsley took a new tack to kick off his campaign week. He scored Teague for not supporting oil drilling on Otero Mesa, a southern New Mexican desert area that environmentalists want protected. Tinsley repeated his support for drilling on Otero Mesa where the Yates family, big Republican contributors, have a major stake. He also said Teague has not taken a position on drilling in ANWR, but Teague appeared to support such drilling in this May Las Cruces Sun-News interview.

"I don't think we have to drill everywhere. But I guess I don't know what the problem would be (to drill in ANWR). I do think we need to be energy independent." Teague said.

Tinsley also came with a three minute video on energy policy, showcasing his ease in front of the camera and trying to shift the debate to a policy issue in which the R's have an advantage.

None of the congressional candidates in New Mexico are on the TV airwaves yet because they have not raised big money.

BACK CHANNEL ACTION

Those controversial political nonprofits (see Monday's blog) were getting attention again Monday from Attorney General Gary King, but he was trying to lower the temperature as he works with the secretary of state to get her to classify the nonprofits as political action committees,. That means they would have to fully disclose the source of their contributions. We talked here of King eventually going to court if the status of the nonprofits in question is not changed, but an AG spokesman said a lawsuit is not on the frontburner; they are hoping the ongoing talks with the SOS lead to a resolution. Stay tuned.

READER MAILBAG

Mike Parks opines that, contrary to our contention, debating skills are not essential to being a successful US Senator: "The life of a US Senator revolves around debate." Come on!! It certainly involves crafted sound bites and talking points, but actual, public debate has little to do with legislative power and effectiveness. You certainly know better."

Ellen Wedum comments on the fact that a nonprofit is mailing hit mailers into the state Senate district of Lidio Rainaldi in western NM: "If these folks are going after Lidio Rainaldi, they are wasting their money. He isn't running for re-election. The candidates in Senate District 4 are George K. Munoz (D) and Beatrice L. Woodward (R).

The nonprofits that have come under the scrutiny of Attorney General King say they do not mail solely into districts where there is a contested legislative primary.

We've been having fun with Steve Pearce's hippies--the ones he used in his full page ABQ Journal ad to mock his Dem US Senate rival Tom Udall. A reader pointed out that the hippie photo Steve used appeared to be taken from an album promoting 1960's rock, but this anonymous e-mailer weighs in:

"Dude, Regarding the readers that say those hippies were stolen from an album. Well, dude maybe the album hippie came from somewhere else? Check here. As shocking as it may be, not every person who sends you an e-mail has a clue. Good luck. Keep having fun with the blog.

Hey Dude, you are too tough on our e-mailers. After all, they beat you to the punch on the hippies.

THE BOTTOM LINES

ABQ Dem State Rep. Al Park's mid-Heights legislative district used to be a swing area, sending both D's and R's to Santa Fe, but not so lately. The R's are giving it another whirl this year, putting up a man with the most interesting name in state politics--Rhead A. Story. He'll have a $25 a pop fund-raiser tonight in ABQ. Rhead probably knows the story on Al. Park packed away a bunch of money when he sought the Dem nod for state attorney general in 2006, but left that race early and has since become chair of the House Judiciary Committee.

Thanks for stopping in. E-mail your latest news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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No summer fun for state Senate Democrats gathered in caucus at a Belen hotel Sunday afternoon where they mulled over the upcoming special legislative session and where, our insiders report, pessimism hung in the air over Big Bill's plans to give cash rebates to Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico based on an oil and gas surplus that is there one day and gone the next.

Our insiders report Big Bill stopped by the caucus where he was greeted cordially as he outlined the purpose of the special, including those rebates. "But as soon as he left, the senators began to worry over the budget projections. They will get an updated forecast from economists on Tuesday. No one seemed to expect the forecast to show the nearly $400 million surplus first projected." Said one of our sources.

If cash rebates are nixed because of the recent price plunge in oil and gas prices, then what will the special session set to begin Friday accomplish? "It appears the Senate could pass the Governor's health care proposal. It is rather modest now. That would give them reason for a short session, and avoid them coming in and simply adjourning. If there is a small surplus, maybe they use it for Medicaid expansion. That money is matched three to one by the federal government," analyzed our insider.

The Sunday caucus was treated to a financial analysis by the Legislative Finance Committee staff which informs that the original budget surplus was based on $134 a barrel oil and $11 natural gas per thousand cubic feet. With the markets plunging, those forecasts seem long ago and far away. And how do the Senators justify a rebate? By telling the public the prices will surely be back up to where they were? Who has that crystal ball? The last we looked there was no one named Houdini serving in the Legislature, but that's who Big Bill may have to emulate if New Mexicans' mailboxes are going to be stuffed with rebate checks.

KING READY TO SWING
Eli Lee Vs. AG King
Attorney General Gary King will "come out swinging" as soon as today, as the battle over politicking nonprofit groups heats up, reliable sources report. The AG, reports our insiders, will again ask that the secretary of state make nonprofit groups like the New Mexico Youth Organization (NMYO) and its parent group, Center for Civic Policy, comply with state campaign reporting rules. If the secretary doesn't, expect King to file a lawsuit to force the issue. Meanwhile, lawyers representing the nonprofits are warning King that they will sue the state if he persists in his bid to hold the groups feet to the fire.

Meanwhile, feeling the heat, political operative Eli Lee, who heads up the Center, revealed some of the funding sources for his controversial nonprofit. He told the ABQ Journal the McCune Foundation and the McKay Foundation--set up by heirs to the Taco Bell fortune--are two of the biggies. Our Alligators had pinpointed the Taco Bell money as one source of Lee's funding, but he shot down speculation that billionaire George Soros was a Center contributor. He said his budget for the next fiscal year will be a whopping $1 million. However, Lee refused to release the individual donors to his nonprofit. He indicated records of them should be available in a November IRS filing, but that's after the election. Also, Lee can only speak for nonprofits he controls. The problem of nonprofit disclosure remains and that's where King is headed.

King's attention on the political non-profits, who bill themselves as "progressive," was refocused Friday when a report surfaced that claimed an assistant attorney general had told a deputy secretary of state to "ignore" King's original request that the secretary classify the NMYO nonprofit as a political action committee, forcing them to more fully disclose their money sources.

"Despite some reports to the contrary, we fully support our earlier position in a letter that the Secretary of State's Office needs to tell the New Mexico Youth Organization (NMYO) to immediately comply with the law," King said.

Insiders say King was none too happy that he was made to look like he was dragging his feet and perhaps fearful of retaliation by the far-left wing of the Democratic Party. Democrat King is up for re-election in 2010. He has also been mentioned as a possible Dem Guv candidate.

WE DIG DEEPER

NMYO is under the umbrella of the Center for Civic Policy, the political nonprofit led by operatives Lee and Matt Brix. Our insiders say King's action will cover both entities. The group mailed out attack literature to help oust three incumbent Dem legislators in the June primary. The AG maintains the literature is obvious campaign material, not educational material as the nonprofits insist. The lit hit the mail boxes about sixty days before the election, keeping within the timeline that nonprofits are allowed to do mailers. But the attacks we've seen are nearly identical to election hit pieces, leaving little doubt that recipients are being urged to vote against the target in the lit. Many of the mailings deal with environmental, big business and ethics issues. We'll try to get some of them and post them here so you can be the judge.

Political nonprofits report their finances to the IRS, but requirements are less comprehensive and not as timely as the state requirements that King is demanding that they meet. Three legislators--Senators Robinson and Taylor and Rep. Silva--were defeated in their primary bids with the help of the nonprofits. They have filed suit to nullify the election results, a long shot play, but one that served to highlight the big "progressive" money coming into legislative races. Most of it, as we learned from Lee over the weekend, coming from out-of-state. Nonprofit hit pieces are now going out against more lawmakers including Senators Rawson, Snyder and Rainaldi.

PROGRESSIVE OR HYPOCRITICAL?

The nonprofits have also been active in promoting ethics legislation, opening themselves to a charge of hypocrisy. Ethics advocates ask if the nonprofits want to improve ethics why don't they fully disclose their finances and lead by example? One reason is that donations to the nonprofits are tax deductible. That gives them an advantage over other political groups. And, yes, donors get to make accusations against candidates under the cover of darkness. And it's not just progressives. What about right-wing interest groups using nonprofit status to hide from the public? One of them came recently with radio spots hitting Dem Tom Udall on gas prices.

King is warning that the nonprofit explosion threatens to take political financing underground and deprive the public of its right to know. The nonprofits retort that they are not engaging in overt political activity that violates their nonprofit status. Their critics want AG King, the IRS and/or the US Attorney to examine that claim. Some are pushing for the NM Legislature to take on the issue in next year's session. Legal beagles say if the lawmakers lawsuit seeking nullification of the election leads to testimony during a "discovery" process, funding sources for the nonprofits could be fully revealed.

If the nonprofits stick to their guns and the SOS does not force compliance with state regs, it looks like they and Attorney General King will get to tell it to a judge. With hundreds of thousands of unaccounted for dollars already pumped into our state's political process, and more coming as we speak, the time is ripe for a legal showdown.

FOLEY AND KING

Another hot potato on Attorney General King's platter is a matter involving outgoing State Rep. and House minority whip Dan Foley, Chaves County Commissioner Harold Hobson, as reported recently, is asking King to investigate the business ties between Allstate insurance, Rep. Foley and state insurance contracts. Foley is an insurance agent. The Hobson letter asking King if a contract Foley has should have been put up for competitive bidding raises some interesting questions. (Click the image to enlarge.)

YOU TUBING HEALTH CARE

Here;'s a little exclusive for you--an ad warning against government-run universal health care coverage. It was paid for by Farmington area GOP State Senator Bill Sharer. Not that Sharer has to worry much or buy TV time for his ad--Big Bill has scaled way back the health care reform measures he is asking the Legislature to approve when it meets in special session this Friday.



DEBATING DEBATES

Should Tom Udall agree to as many TV debates that are offered and put to an end the dreary debate over debates that has become a summer staple of the US Senate campaign? If he did, he would only be taking part in perhaps two more than the three TV face-offs he has already agreed to and deprive Steve Pearce of his soapbox. The southern NM congressman was hammering Udall again over the weekend, accusing Udall's camp of stalling in setting up the TV debates.

I urge him to have a meeting within the next seven days with our campaign and all of the electronic and print media to finalize a date certain for a series of debates to be televised in New Mexico.

KOAT-TV has proposed an October 26 debate. We await word from stations KOB, KRQE and public stations KNME in ABQ and KRWG in Las Cruces on whether they want to host debates. Also. NBC's Meet the Press has scheduled a Sunday morning national face-off between our two Senate hopefuls. NO date set yet. Udall says he wants only three statewide TV debates and he wants to count the MTP appearance as one of them. Pearce does not.

INSIDER ANALYSIS ON THIS
Udall
Why the reticence to debate in the first open US Senate seat since 1972? The usual and obvious reason--Udall is way ahead and doesn't want to help Pearce by giving him face time. The other reason, not mentioned much, is that Udall, like Pearce, is not noted for his oratorical skills and his handlers do not want to risk a mistake like the "brain freeze" Dem Patricia Madrid made in her 2006 congressional race against Heather Wilson and which probably cost her the race. Pearce is also unpracticed in the TV debate format, but lagging by double digits, he needs to take the risk.

The problem in recent years has been a lack of interest by the network affiliates in broadcasting debates. If not all of them offer time, Udall will get off the hook. But if KOB wants to have a debate, in addition to broadcasting the MTP appearance, and KRQE also makes time available, does the Udall camp turn them down KOB because it will mean going over its self-imposed limit of three debates? And what about public TV, is Udall going to turn them down?

The life of a US Senator revolves around debate--on the floor and in committee. While taking part in all the TV debates offered might give Pearce a slight advantage, Udall looks risking weak and fearful if he refuses a major network. The possibility of trapping the contender may even make the stations more prone now to offer debate time. It would make a pretty good story for them if he did refuse, and could explode into a major issue--jut what Udall wants to avoid.

Udall could simply agree to one NM hosted debate on each major station. It would quickly put an end to Pearce's jabbing, serve the interest of the electorate and, if he wins in November, it just might make Udall a better prepared United States senator.

STEVE'S HIPPIES

An enterprising Alligator revealed that the pic of those hippies Steve Pearce used for his full-page ABQ Journal ad hitting Tom Udall was taken from the cover of an album promoting 1960's rock. We posted it for some Friday fun. Now we go one better. We have the hippies promoting the album on a video!



Okay, we don't know for sure if they are the same hippies the GOP US Senate nominee used in his ad, but it's close enough. So come on all you love children--that means you Tom Udall and you Steve Terrell--let's get down with Steve's hippies. And Steve Pearce, we dig you, man. But don't bogart that joint, just dance.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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