Senator Biden
The selection of Senator Joe Biden as Obama's VP could help the ticket in the rural areas of New Mexico, particularly in the south where Obama is weakest, and boosts the odds a bit that NM Governor Big Bill Richardson could become Secretary of State if Obama takes the White House. That was the analysis from Senior Alligators of La Politica who began weighing in minutes after the news of Biden's selection was flashed to the nation on CNN shortly before 11 p.m. Mountain Time.

We asked several to guess how long it would be before NM saw Biden once the Dem convention was completed. The "over-under" we came with is 14 days. In other words, these vets expect Biden to make a NM stop within two weeks of the convention.

"How about if Obama and Biden come together from the Denver convention and make a stop in Santa Fe. We are the closest swing state to Colorado, and Obama has yet to visit the North. Post-convention might be an ideal time," offered one of the Gators in a Midnight analytical session that burned cell phone minutes by the dozen.

Biden, 65, has demonstrated appeal to working class Anglos, a weak spot for Obama and one which Dems hope Biden can help him shore up. In fact, several of our Gators felt sending Biden to SE NM would be a good place to have him mine for votes. Not all agreed. "Joe Biden help in rural new Mexico? What are people smoking? It's more likely that Big Bill will be Hillary's VP choice on the Democrats 2012 ticket." Opined another Alligator. Others said Biden doesn't do anything for the ticket in NM.

Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall pointed to a personal tie he has to Biden: “I’ve personally known and respected Sen. Biden since I worked for him as a special projects assistant during the Summer of 1973, right after he was elected to office. Since then, I’ve known Joe Biden as a dedicated public servant who will work for change..." Said Udall in a Midnight hour e-mail.

As for Big Bill, earlier Friday he said he received a "gracious" call from Obama telling him he would not be the #2 . No big surprise there, but because Biden has also been mentioned as a potential Secretary of State, the Alligators felt Bill's chances of getting SOS went up now that Biden is out of the betting pool. However, Senator Kerry remains and Bill's relationship with the Clintons continues to concern his supporters who fear they may try to block the Guv's ascension. Many in the Clinton camp are still stung by Bill's failure to endorse Hillary's Prez bid.

But for the next two months, all eyes are on the prize. Young Obama and semi-senior Biden
look like a formidable pair on paper. We'll see how they do once their march into political history becomes reality.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Jeff, Bill & Tom by Bralley
How would you caption this interesting photo of La Politica? That was the question we asked about the snap of (left to right) Senator Jeff Bingaman, Governor Big Bill and Rep. Tom Udall. The Democratic power trio attended the Monday Obama rally in ABQ. We offered free lunch to the reader who came up with the best caption, and we had plenty of fun fielding the many entries. Here's a sample of them, some anonymous, some not. They're followed by the winner.

Anonymous
Udall: Since I'll be in the Senate soon, I can't wait to talk to Jeff about homeland security reform.
Big Bill: Since I'll be Secretary of State soon, I can't wait to talk to Jeff about foreign policy initiatives.
Bingaman: If I pretend I'm asleep, I won't have to talk to these guys.

Ronald Domino
Bill and Tom: He just got promised a cabinet post?! How did he get a cabinet post?"

Anonymous
Bill to Jeff: I really need to get the name of Jeff's Stylist when I move to DC.

Tony Olmi
"Ok Jeff, what do you know we don't know? Are you on the Veep Short List?"

Anonymous
Jeff: Ahhhh life is good. After the election I'll be able to cram my energy package down their throats and I'll be a lock for reelection.

Anonymous
Big Bill: Just what the hell does Jeff know that I don't? Hmmm.

Dana Elliott
Udall : Come on guys. Tell me what's up. Come on. Let me in on the secrets.

Anonymous
Senator Bingaman: "Yes I know who the VP choice is, but my lips are sealed."

Michael Padilla
Senator Bingaman, Vice-president Richardson (oops…meant to say Governor Richardson), and Senator Udall (oops again…meant to say Representative Udall) watch as the Democratic tidal wave takes hold of the nation.

J.D. Bullington
"What in the heck is Diane Denish wearing? Is that a tutu or a toga?"

Kevin Reagan
Big Bill: "Gee Jeff, since this campaigning is so tough on you that you need to nap during the day, why don't you resign and I'll appoint somebody reliable."

Linda Doran
U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman smiles to himself after telling fellow New Mexico lawmakers Gov. Bill Richardson and Congressman Tom Udall, “Look, it’s Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky!”

And the winner is:

Phil Carter
Bingaman: "Maybe if I'm real quiet, they won't notice the tiny woman's head stuck to the back of my neck."

We didn't even notice that part of the pic. Phil's cleverness and wit wins him the lunch. By the way, we're told the woman to the left of Tom Udall is state education secretary Veronica Garcia. Thanks to all for taking part.

PEARCE CLOSES

Pearce Vs. Udall
It will be no surprise to readers here that Dem Tom Udall now leads Steve Pearce by just 10 points, not the 25 point lead he scored in the July Rasmussen poll. As expected as it may have been among the political classes, the poll will still give Republican Steve Pearce a boost as he continues to try to persuade money givers that he is capable of the upset. The Aug. 20 Rasmussen has Udall still over the magic 50% level, garnering 51% to Pearce's 41%, but a month ago it was 59% for Tom and only 34% for Steve. The MOE for the August poll is + or -4%.

After ceding the airwaves to Udall for June and July, the southern NM congressman this month came with negative TV against Udall, and it's been buttressed by a negative $150,000 ad attack from the conservative Club for Growth. That negative punch, mainly over energy policy and high gas prices, outweighed Tom's mainly positive TV, but this week he came with his response to Pearce. Now the suspense will be whether Steve can take Tom below 50% in upcoming polls. That could set off a frenzy and recast this contest which so far has heavily favored the northern NM congressman.

In the poll, Udall retains a healthy 59% favorable rating, to Pearce's 53%. Rasmussen points out: "The Democrat still leads by nine points --48% to 39% -- among independents but in July he had a 32-point lead among these voters.The candidates are now even among men. Udall still maintains a commanding 54% to 35% lead among women voters, but this is only half the margin he had in July."

MORE EXPERT ANALYSIS

The Alligators chipped in and bought us the Rasmussen crosstabs. They show both candidates have done a good job of bringing home base voters. Udall gets 83% of the D's and Pearce gets 84% of the R's. That D number is a big problem for Pearce in a state where 50% of the voters are registered with the majority party. It also signals he is not yet getting enough conservative Dems in his southern congressional district.

Udall beats Pearce in every age category among the 700 likely voters. But Pearce gets some good news when Rasmussen includes voters leaning toward a candidate. Udall's overall lead then shrinks from ten to eight points, 52% to 44%, but still over the critical 50%.

The race is shaping up as my experts expected. Using history as a guide, they are saying Udall is currently favored to win this race with around a 53% to 55% majority. This is the first poll to confirm where they have been leading us. The upset remains improbable, but not impossible. Any cockiness left in the Udall camp, especially among the far-left, is out the window. And likewise for Pearce having any tolerance for running a less than perfect campaign.

OBAMA BY SIX

The latest Rasmussen NM presidential polling doesn't show much change. Obama leads McCain by six points--47% to 41%.

PETE'S PAPERS

It's not surprising to hear that the University of New Mexico doens't want to talk about Senator Domenic's papers going to NM State University. It's a pretty good coup for the Aggies, who promise to put the papers to use. UNM's political archives have not been a top priority, and now the archive of the longest serving senator--a native of ABQ--are headed 300 miles south. Hopefully, they will result in a balanced and complete book of Domenici's career. There still isn't one out there on Senator Dennis Chavez, the previous longest serving Senator and the most important in NM history.

BLOCK AID

More controversy for northern Dem Public Regulation Commission contender Jerome Block, Jr. This guy is leaking news like a faucet. Despite the negative hits, he is still favored to win in the heavy Dem district, but some D's are starting to gather around Green Party candidate Rick Lass. No R is running.

Thanks for tuning in. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

McCain in Cruces (ABQ Journal)
Top New Mexico Republicans say problems attracting independents and Democrats in Dona Ana County appeared to be a driving reason why GOP prez contender chose to stop in Las Cruces Wednesday, foregoing Albuquerque and the north where Obama made his mark Monday. They explained that McCain's camp has reason to worry about Dona Ana where McCain will need to tie or narrowly lose to Obama if he is to reach his goal of a landslide win in the southern congressional district. Dona Ana will make up about 30% of the southern CD's vote in November. It is a heavily Dem county. McCain must make inroads with soft Dems, Hispanics and independents. If McCain doesn't get a big vote total in the south, he could be helpless in fending off Obama who is expected to carry the Northern district. The ABQ congressional district is a battleground, with insiders saying Obama appears to be leading here, but not overwhelmingly. A slew of national polls this week show McCain improving. Will that be the case here?

Insiders say McCain's problems in nailing down independents reflects the situation he is facing nationally. Obama also has been active on the ground in Las Cruces; McCain not so much. McCain has been doing a good job bombarding the NM TV airwaves, but the personal visit by the candidate is a proven way to bump the numbers, thus McCain's town hall meeting at the NM State University Campus. (McCain Cruces video here.)

We noticed southern NM GOP congressional candidate prominently on stage with McCain. (Actually, we saw his head from the back on TV. That was you, wasn't it, Ed?) Anyway, Tinsley needs to do the same thing in Dona Ana--tie or lose narrowly.

Meanwhile, in Camp Obama in NM and elsewhere, hear them roar for their candidate to get a groove going--or else!

VEEP FRENZY

How fever pitched is the speculation over who Obama will pick as his running mate? This week we received a tip from one of our downtown informers that an area hotel was being screened by the Obama Secret Service" detail for a Friday event. Well, that set off a wildfire of speculation that our very own Big Bill was back in the running for Veep. Obama was here Monday and did an event in downtown ABQ. Maybe our informer was confused with the sweep that took place for that event, but he said he was sure it was for something this week. We'll see.

Even the ABQ Journal, which has to know Bill's chances of being tagged by Obama are 1 out of 100, decided to banner headline the possibility Wednesday. Obama is milking the Veep speculation for every ounce of media he can get. What the heck. It's not going to hurt anyone, and it's a frenzy that everyone can have fun with. In the highly unlikely event that Bill does get the nod, the media mavens, who have mentioned every name under the sun, can say they were on the trail. Kinda like the guy who bets every number on the roulette wheel just to say he won.

LEGISLATIVE LEFTOVERS

That $200 million for road repair approved by the special session of the Legislature is going to come mainly from floating bonds, not surplus revenue, and those pared down rebate checks are not promised to hit the mailboxes until Thanksgiving. What? Are the politicos slipping? They can't get those checks to you before you cast your vote? All 112 legislative seats are on the ballot this year.

FOLEY'S MOVE

Let's make this official. The Alligators nailed it weeks ago, but State House minority whip Dan Foley denied it--he claimed was not moving to Rio Rancho anytime soon. But he and his family have moved to Rio Rancho--confirmed by the AP--and, as we informed yesterday, and resigning his Roswell legislative seat from which he was ousted in the June primary by Dennis Kintigh. The Gators further inform Foley will work in the insurance business in Rio Rancho. The voluble Foley has tangled with the Alligators here repeatedly over the years. With Foley out of the game for now, both sides get a rest. The Roswell Record has more on the political end game of Dan Foley.

The Foley Rio Rancho confirmation was actually in the AP report we posted very late last night, but we were too bleary-eyed to notice. Will Foley try to make a political comeback? If he does try to bring back his noisy politics,it won't be done quietly.

THE UDALL BOYS

Those Udall boys--Tom In New Mexico and Mark in Colorado--are taking a beating but keep on ticking. The cousins and Dem US Senate contenders are being subjected to the mighty wrath of the right. Here's one of the funnier ads running against Mark Udall who is in a tight race with Republican Bob Schaffer.




TEAGUE TUBE

Here's the first TV ad from Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague that we told you yesterday we had spotted on the air. All the fretting about Teague of Hobbs sounding too much like a hick is being rapidly put to rest. The producers have the Hobbs oilman talking intermittently in the 60 second bio ad. He does just fine. Republican Ed Tinsley has already proven his TV abilities by going on the air in the primary. Both of these candidates--in their 50's and successful in their business pursuits--bring some gravitas and life experience to the state's congressional campaigns.

ECLIPSE AND YESTERYEAR

When we were helping ABQ Mayor Chavez out with his transition office back in 2001, we weighed in with the advice that he might want to step back a bit from his all-out embrace of Eclipse Aviation. Not that it was not a somewhat promising venture, it just seemed that it was over promising. Well, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and the ongoing problems of Eclipse have come home to roost--and there could be trouble for the politicos if the airline maker moves out of ABQ or trims its workforce even more than it already has. The state and city governments gave Eclipse every break in the world, plus a bunch of money. Not that Chavez, the Chamber of Commerce and others did not have the area's interest at heart, but Eclipse should be a lesson learned for the pooh-bahs who occupy the chief economic development slots--and the politicos who take advice from them.

PROGRESSIVE THINKING

With the Center for Civic Policy, which bills itself as "progressive" organization getting busted by the attorney general and secretary of state and being ordered to report their money, a reader from rural NM wonders just what a "progressive" is.

I am intrigued by the growth of a self-labeled “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party. I consider myself progressive, but I don’t know really what the label means to most people and whether others would characterize me as progressive...I don’t hear people talking much about what it takes to be a “progressive.” You might ask your readership to weigh in on the topic..What are the criteria? Who are the leaders? Is a progressive, just a dressed up version of a liberal? What does it take to get your card punched and who punches it? Please enlighten us hicks out here in the boondocks!

To us, a progressive is just a new moniker for "liberal," a word discredited by decades of media attacks. What's your definition? E-mail that and other news and comments.

And don't forget to take part in our photo caption contest on Wednesday's blog. We'll announce the winner of a free lunch for the winning entry Friday.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Sen. Smith
The Legislature had the chance to act like a bunch of first graders back in the classroom for the first day after a long summer vacation, but in the end they took the high road. They had Big Bill over a barrel, but they decided not to push. When they headed for the Interstate last night after adjourning a special session, they had given the Guv a plate full of appetizers, but no main course and certainly no dessert.

Largely symbolic cash rebates will be handed out, flood relief will get to stricken areas, health care will be pumped up for uninsured children and $200 million was approved for ongoing road repair (Mostly from bonds not the surplus). Bill, a governor with the largest of appetites, decided to pronounce himself satisfied with just the hors d’oeuvre. It was, maintained the Fourth Floor leader, "a good, solid, yet modest effort that helps New Mexico families."

And we might want to get used to it. We called this special the "Last Supper Session" because it may be one of the last where reasonably large oil and gas surpluses are divvied up. Future sessions may be haunted by the spending of the past. While it was Bill who conceived the session, it was Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith whose name history may most closely associate with it. He has been an early chicken little, constantly warning that the sky is falling, but the rest of the chickens finally started to see things his way, and they trimmed and pared and trimmed and pared some more. Dr. Atkins would have been proud.

LET'S FIGHT ABOUT IT

That Club for Growth TV ad hitting Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall is stinging. The ad is a bit disjointed covering the "Death Tax," Eminent Domain" and offshore drilling, but it is on a lot--$150,000 for two weeks. The Udall campaign, flush with cash, has decided to respond with this ad. On energy, the ad says Udall wants to "do it all" including more offshore drilling and nuclear power. That may be so, but the reason Pearce's attacks and those of the Club for Growth have some impact is because for the over 10 years Udall has been in the US House he has rarely voiced such support. Will the polls close because of the stepped-up attacks? Very likely. No one is going to hold on to a 20 point lead in an open NM Senate seat race.

NONPROFIT FALL OUT

It's not about ideology, this controversy over political nonprofits disclosing their contributions and expenditures. The Center for Civic Policy, ordered by the state to disclose their money, comes at politics from the left. But another nonprofit we briefly mentioned recently--the American Energy Alliance--comes at things from the right and also is not reporting their money. They have run anti-Tom Udall radio ads in the state and reader Mike Parks comments:

"...The Center for Civic Policy merits...attention..but I wish there would be more attention to organizations "on the other side," like the "American Energy Alliance"...As your blog briefly noted, funding sources of the Alliance are nigh-impossible to come by...Annoyed by some of the AEA's ad content (like the ludicrous claim that there are two trillion barrels of oil available under America), I called the American Petroleum Institute, noted by some bloggers as a major funder of AEA. One of API's media representatives, agreeing in effect that the claim is ridiculous, said they are not involved with AEA...."

Full and complete disclosure by all sides involved in the political process is essential. It is the only way of ensuring a level playing field--for both left and right. The attorney general and secretary of state have ordered such disclosure by the Center for Civic Policy. They have more to look at.

THE LIT IN QUESTION

Here are two pieces of literature sent out by the political nonprofit associated with the Center for Civic Policy. They claim they are not political because they do not urge a vote for or against the targeted state senators. They say they should not have to disclose their funding for the flyers because they are "educational." Click on them to enlarge and see for yourself. As Attorney General King said: "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck." We are hearing some very loud quacking.

NO STONE UNTURNED

Obama left no stone unturned during his Monday ABQ visit. Well aware that McCain was slated for Las Cruces today, the soon-to-be Dem prez nominee squeezed in a phone interview with the Las Cruces Sun-News which won him prominent coverage and kept him in the media sweepstakes there as McCain makes his big townhall splash at the NMSU campus today.

CHESHIRE OUT AT McCAIN?

When McCain sets down in Cruces today, he apparently won't have GOP consultant Whitney Cheshire touting his appearance. Two reliable Alligators confirm that Cheshire, named earlier this year as state communications director for NM McCain, is said to be one of the first causalities of Campaign '08, having left the campaign for reasons not released. Cheshire was brought on by Marta Kramer, former executive director of the NM GOP, who is heading up the NM McCain office.

MIDNIGHT TRAIN

Closing in on the Midnight hour now and we're still on the beat with non-stop breaking political news. And it is going to stay that way for the next 75 days. From the AP comes word that NM House minority whip Dan Foley of Roswell will follow through with plans to resign his seat right after the November election. Foley was defeated by Dennis Kintigh in the GOP primary. Now county commissioners in his district could recommend a replacement to the Governor. That person would only serve until the new rep is seated in January. That is expected to be Kintigh in the heavy R district. Alligators on the Foley watch say he is either now living in Rio Rancho, or expected to move there soon.

STILL BREAKING--TEAGUE TV

I have the TV on here headed into the late night and can bring you this exclusive--southern NM congressional Dem contender Harry Teague has just hit with his first spot. He beats Republican Ed Tinsley on the air. It appeared to be a sixty second ad. The big thing about it? Teague talks, and at length. He said nothing on his primary ads , and observers felt it hurt him. In this spot, he sounds confident, but down-home. I'll post it when I get it in here. Teague is an oilman from Hobbs. His money is dangerous to Tinsley who will not be able to let Harry have the tube to himself for long. Meantime, for Team Tinsley it's welcome to Campaign '08 from Harry Teague. They've come to play, boys...More breaking. It looks like GOP Senate nominee Pearce is up with a 10 second ad touting nuclear power. That's one way to stretch your campaign dollar. If you think we're going to map all the ads to come like this each night, I have a special session to sell you in Santa Fe...

CAPTION CONTEST

There's a free lunch for you and your guest if you come up with the best caption for this cool photo shot by photog Mark Bralley at the Monday Obama ABQ rally. It features Senator Jeff Bingaman, Big Bill and a somewhat bewildered looking Tom Udall. Our caption: "Jeff, why didn't you tell Tom that Pearce would be coming?"

We know you can do better. Send them in via e-mail.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Conservation Voters of NM want to make it clear they are not tied up in the political nonprofit mess. They report that a story we linked to in the ABQ Journal Tuesday wonders if CVNM's political fund would have to register with the state as a result of a ruling by Secretary of State Herrera. CVNM points out they already register and report all their contributions and expenditures, unlike the nonprofits coming under the scrutiny of the attorney general...1996 GOP VP nominee Jack Kemp will be in ABQ Thursday for a shooting contest. It's not to hunt Dems, but to kick off McCain's state sportsmen coalition. Call (505) 715-4311 to shoot 'em up with the former Buffalo Bills quarterback.

KKOB-AM radio's Peter St. Cyr has posted complete audio of Obama at the ABQ library Monday morning...The name of the little girl pictured with Obama in the Tuesday blog is six year old Viviana Edwards. We didn't have the info for our first draft. Vivian's mother, Michelle Kavanaugh, introduced Obama at the library, is also in the pic, spotted it on the blog and emailed the info.

E-mail it in--news, comments or whatever strikes you as interesting.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Obama Takes Command in ABQ
Barack Obama was grinding away in New Mexico Monday, taking another step towards nailing down this Democratic-dominated swing state by meeting with Indian leaders and wowing a heavily Hispanic Dem crowd in ABQ's South Valley. (For the junkies, here is the complete one hour Rio Grande High video, including Big Bill's intro.)

"We think we are ahead here. We need to keep taking these small steps. It doesn't appear McCain who is from a neighboring state will give up here. Obama will be back several times." An Obama insider told me shortly after the visit. He said the campaign expects NM to remain a swing state all the way to November.

Obama met briefly with state pueblo leaders as well as the president of the Navajo Nation at Rio Grande High School shortly before his speech and townhall meeting there.

"It was good to get that done. It is a key constituency for us. An extra thousand Navajo votes could make all the difference. Those precincts vote Democratic at a rate of at least 66%," informed our insider.

Before heading deep into the Valley, Obama, who overnighted at the Downtown Hyatt, met with about 40 invited women at the downtown library to talk about equal pay for women. Because Obama held a similar women-only event when last in ABQ June 24, some questioned why he was doing another. "The morning event was aimed more at the national audience. The afternoon was geared towards New Mexico," explained our insider.

Obama nursed an obvious cold at the library, but they must have pumped him with medicine by the afternoon because he appeared energized and on message. The old-fashioned high school gym rally before a crowd of 1,800 played well, and even had what seemed to be an authentic moment--if here is a such a thing in national politics anymore--when the first question to Obama was a tough one--whether he had back pedaled on his position on Iraq. He called the questioner "feisty," and then had to tell her why she was wrong. Good stuff.

Everything leans Dem this year. The race issue may be the only thing holding Obama back here. His exposure Monday in the Valley and future trips to Hispanic strongholds across the state are an important element in putting him over the top.

WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT

This is one of my favorite Mark Bralley photos in a long time. It is the daughter of the woman who introduced Obama at his downtown library event Monday. Her name is Viviana Edwards, 6, daughter of Michelle Kavanaugh (Mom Michelle beams in the background). It tells the story that the presidency of the USA, despite its problems of late, retains its mystique with the public--whether that President be Democrat or Republican--or black or white.

DON'T FORGET JOHN
Here's the official McCain page on his Wednesday visit to Las Cruces, his first one there of the campaign season. And here is an in-depther from the Sun-News. Bush narrowly lost Dona Ana County to Kerry in '04. McCain would be happy to do the same with Obama.

AROUND THE ROUNDHOUSE

Big Bill is like the guy holding a stock that has gone down 50% but swears it will go back up. But the oil and gas boom is over for now. The American nation can't tolerate four or five dollar a gallon gas and it won't. The economy simply can't function at that level, and hoping and praying for the return of higher prices won't make it so. That's the central message of the special session of the NM Legislature underway in Santa Fe and which is seeing Bill's taxpayer rebates based on a faith-based oil and gas surplus ripped to shreds, pared to an amount that could barely fill the gas tank of a Geo Metro.

It's been a great run, but the party is over. The punch bowl has been taken away, the cops have been called, the lights have been turned on and the agile ones are running for the exits. Can you imagine the hangover when the next Governor and Legislature face the prospect of actually cutting programs? My, how the liberals will roar and the conservatives, in hibernation for years, will finally get to sharpen their under-used Ginsu knives. Diane Denish, be careful what you wish for.

In the meantime, here's more from the fabled Roundhouse and the grumpy group gathered for what might be their last supper.

GATOR ATTACK

When you are reaching for the upper rings of political power, they'll use everything against you. Take, for example, the recent pummeling Big Bill has had at the hands of grumpy state senators called into special session by the Guv, who is often mentioned as a possible secretary of state in an Obama administration. From the e-mail box: "If you cant deal with the new Mexico Senate, I don't want you dealing with (Russia's)Putin."

It's been amusing to see the mainstream media speculate with vigor about Bill being chosen as Obama's running mate. The soon-to-be Dem prez nominee gave obligatory praise of the Guv at Rio Grande High Monday, but nothing out of the ordinary. Insiders, including Bill's own, long ago ruled out his chances at getting on the ticket. In fact, the worry is that the Guv could get nothing and be stuck here for two years dealing with that grouchy state Senate we saw on full display this weekend.

UDALL'S FOES

That Club for Growth TV ad we told you about Monday that hits Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall will be on the air in the ABQ market for two weeks at a cost of $150,000. The Club
came with $275,00 in primary support for Pearce, so they are well on their way to at least meeting that total in the general. You can see the ad here.

Is the issue of "Eminent Domain," featured in the ad, that big of a deal? Probably to the GOP base and some conservative Dems, and to card-carrying members of the Club for Growth. But soon Pearce is going to have to appeal to undecided centrist voters. It is almost September and the southern NM congressman--and his allies--are still going after votes that should be taken for granted. Udall has to be smiling.

WATCHING THE "WATCHDOGS"

NM Secretary of State Herrera has agreed with AG King and on Monday ordered NM Youth Organized (NMYO) to register as a political committee, forcing them to disclose their contributions and expenditures. The group, an affiliate of Eli Lee's Center for Civic Policy, says it will fight the order in court, which could prove expensive and raise questions by donors concerned that their money is being used for lawyers' fees. Here's a complete report from the ABQ Journal. Read on for our analysis.
AG King
The political nonprofit at the center of the storm over disclosing contributions and expenditures is lawyering up and pulling out all the PR stops. But none of it will avoid the inevitable collision. Center for Civic Policy executive director, Eli Lee, writes in an op-ed piece in the ABQ Journal that the people of NM deserve to know "from whom (legislators) receive financial contributions" but then he turns around and asserts the people have no right to know who is funding his nonprofit's expensive mail attacks on an assortment of legislators. His latest excuse is that release of the donors to the Center would subject them to "harassment." Does that mean we should halt already required financial disclosure because it is a threat to the public safety? Lee, under pressure, recently identified foundation donors, but not individual donors, to his group.

The political nonprofit has sent out loads of hit literature against legislators they claim is "educational" while the AG argues it is blatantly political. The enduring question is why Lee and his allies, who so forcefully promulgate disclosure by the campaigns of elected officials, are themselves so reticent to adopt this ethical behavior as their own, even as they claim to be self-appointed ethical watchdogs of our Legislature. If there were an indictment for being hypocritical, the grand jury would be looking at a true bill.

Lee has also not disclosed specific group expenditures, including his salary. Informed insiders tell us he may be getting as much as 20% of the gross donations. That would be about $329,000 if his group collects his projected amount over two years. (If our insider figure is inaccurate, we would be glad to provide updated information from the Center, or they can give it to the newspapers.)

King has been ridiculed by Center allies as a backwoods country lawyer. It now faces a legal fight over his quest to force full disclosure of the estimated $1.645 million the Center says it will take in this year and next (Although some say the recent publicity can't be helping the Center's fund-raising while others argue the legal trouble will spur it on). Center lawyers say King's action could lead to "unnecessary litigation." But we face the prospect of continued undisclosed funding coming into this state from far and wide, depriving us of the knowledge of who is trying to influence public policy here. Under those circumstances, litigation is something to look forward to, not shy away from.

THE BOTTOM LINES

On our use of the term "farolito bonfire" Monday, a reader writes: "Northern NM and Metro ABQ have opposite references for farolitos and luminarias. In the north, the bonfire is a luminaria and the candle in a lunch bag is a farolito. I think the north is technically correct because a farol is a lantern but my Mom from Belen never accepted that and my Dad from Las Vegas stopped arguing about it."

Maybe we should make it like red or green--either one is acceptable?

Keep us posted. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Someone flipped the switch and Campaign '08 lit up like a farolito bonfire on Christmas Eve. Hillary made it to Espanola Sunday; Obama is in ABQ today; McCain is in Las Cruces for a townhall Wednesday; and a special session of the NM Legislature wound its way through a watery weekend in Santa Fe. And it's not going to slow down much between now and Election Day in this swing state of ours. One mystery, however, is sure to endure. Just why does a state with a population yet to touch two million and which looks hardly anything like the "regular" USA, every four years become one of the best predictors of who will take the White House? Barack Obama and John McCain are the latest in a long line of would-be presidents who have searched for the answer as zealously as Coronado searched for the Seven Cities of Gold here. Unlike Coronado, there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for one of our modern-day explorers, but it takes a lot of time and effort looking in the state's nooks and crannies to discover the treasure.

For Obama, the most treasured demographic of them all right now is Hispanic Democrats. Without a big showing by this traditional Dem voting block, he won't have to worry about all those "Reagan Democrats" up for grabs because he will surely lose if the state's most Democratic group is not nailed down and nailed down good. To that end., Obama becomes a Raven today--as in Rio Grande High School Raven. He travels deep into the home of La Politica--in ABQ's South Valley--to begin the process of bringing home Hispanics who voted nearly 40% for Bush in '04 and helped him win the state.

Kerry had abortion and gay marriage hung around his neck by Catholics and other religious conservatives--especially in the Spanish North where the church's reign dates back 400 years. African-Americans are relative strangers to the Hispanic New Mexican political tradition. Obama needs to make fast friends.

It would have been a boost for Barack if he was able to hang with Hillary In Espanola in Rio Arriba County Sunday. The Clinton brand remains strong as witnessed by the enthusiastic greeting she received there before heading south to Santa Fe and ABQ for two separate fundraisers to help retired her presidential debt, and trade White House campaign gossip with Big Bill--who shares with Hillary the pain of losing the Prez race, although he was put out of his misery early in the race.

LEGACY WATCHING

It was the retirement of Senator Pete Domenici that set in motion the once-in-a-lifetime political events we are witnessing this cycle, and the reviews of Domenici's career are being mixed in with the hectic campaigns. Here's one of the first from the las Cruces Sun-News.

BACK TO THE ACTION
Hill & Bill
In Espanola, crowd estimates ranged from 500 to 800 for Hillary Clinton's Sunday afternoon campaign rally featuring a plea by Hill, decked out in a turquoise outfit and matching turquoise jewelry, for Hispanic Dems to back Obama now that she is gone from the contest. Big Bill, Light Guv Denish, Tom Udall, Senator Bingaman and northern congressional contender Ben Ray Lujan shared the stage with her. There was one PR problem associated with the visit as described by an Alligator on the scene: "The trip was not planned by her staff, but controlled by Obama's campaign...Unfortunately, there was a youth dance group that had to be canceled in order to hold the rally. While it makes her look bad on the ten o'clock news; the decision to cancel the youth dancers was solely the Obama folks and not the Clinton's."

Hillary attended fund-raisers hosted by former Big Bill campaign manager Dave Contarino in Santa Fe and an ABQ fund-raiser hosted by Downs of ABQ racetrack owner Paul Blanchard. There was also a reception at the El Pinto restaurant in the ABQ North Valley for the NM delegates who will go to the Dem national convention pledged to Hillary. Our Alligator reports: "Hillary spent about an hour talking to us, taking pictures and signing autographs. She seemed in great spirits and had dinner on the patio with (Lt. Guv) Diane (Denish) and Herb (Denish).

IRATE SPECIAL

New Mexico's Legislature isn't helping advance Big Bill's cause with Obama. The state Senate, to no one's surprise, exploded in acrimony Sunday as the special session called by the Guv went into its third day. Those will be interesting headlines for Obama to glance at while in ABQ today, but it's not as if the Guv wasn't warned. It appears the lawmakers will pass taxpayer rebates, but much smaller than Bill proposed.

PRO-PEARCE GROUP IS BACK

The conservative Club for Growth which came for GOP US Senate nominee Steve Pearce with $275,000 in TV time in his primary with Heather Wilson, is back. Sunday we saw their first ad hitting Dem nominee and praising Pearce for their stands on offshore drilling, among other maters. No word yet on how much the Club is spending for Pearce, but it is only mid-August and they're already up. Maybe that's why Pearce has been reluctant to tap his personal fortune. The Club and other third party groups could make up a big chunk of the cash shortfall he is experiencing.

DEBATES SET

The Udall campaign wasn't looking for a fight with the big ABQ TV stations, and it won't get one now that they have agreed to hold three TV debates--October 15th, KOB-4, October 18th, KRQE-13 and October 26th, KOAT-7. Udall and GOP nominee Pearce will also appear on a segment of NBC's "Meet the Press." Initially, the Udall camp wanted MTP counted toward the three statewide TV debates they said they would take part in. But they are no longer counting MTP, so we will get the three prime time debates as well as the MTP on a Sunday morning. The Pearce camp say they forced the issue; the Udall camp says they were not responding to pressure. The first two debates come as early voting gets underway, giving early voters the chance to see the two contenders debate before casting a vote.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author