John McCain accepted the presidential nomination of the Republican Party Thursday night only to quickly move to shed the image of that tarnished brand. He invoked "bipartisanship" and his compelling personal story to persuade the American nation that it is he, not Barack Obama, who is best equipped to bring the change being clamored for from coast-to coast.

The Arizona senator's nomination acceptance speech capped a GOP national convention that sparked renewed hope among the party faithful beleaguered by an unpopular president, a war that drags on and an economy that has the middle-class riddled with anxiety. They have turned to the 72 year old McCain, a maverick who has often differed with party orthodoxy, to lure the conservative Democrats and independents they must have if they are to retain power at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. (Transcript and video)

McCain's speech drew mixed reviews from the pundits and analysts, including several here in New Mexico. Former ABQ GOP State Representative Greg Payne, a longtime campaign consultant, shared his thoughts in a late-night phone session.

ON BIPARTISANSHIP

I'm not sure that's what the crowd wanted or what the rank and file needed to hear. He was dead-on about the GOP having lost its way, but I'm not sure this speech was the time or place for that message. In his acceptance speech, Obama really fired up the grassroots of the Democratic Party. I think Sarah Palin did that for Republicans, but not McCain.

McCAIN THE MAN

His personal story was the most compelling part. It's hard to imagine a dry eye in the house as he spoke of his prisoner of war years. After the speech, I had a clear sense that McCain was a patriot, but there was not enough contrast with Obama and his policies.

NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK
Greg Payne
The race is far from over here. McCain will be here Saturday and I look for him to tap into the big military tradition here. As far as strategy, we are looking at 2004--part two. McCain will look to win big in the rural areas--especially the southern congressional district---Obama will take the north handily and the battleground will be the metro area. I sense Obama is ahead here, but I believe Palin has energized the conservative base which is so important to presidential races.

Payne said McCain did not hurt himself by not delivering a real ripsnorter condemning the Dems, but that the convention may be best remembered for the emergence of Alaska Governor Palin. "Win or lose, I think we have only just begun hearing about her," analyzed Payne as we wrapped up our tour of La Politica in this most historic of years.

THE SELL-OUT

Payne is right about Palin energizing the grassroots of the NM GOP--and maybe some independents and Dems, too. The GOP says it has handed out 6,000 tickets to the Saturday night McCain-Palin ABQ Convention Center rally.

SPANISH NORTH ANALYSIS

GOP VP nominee Sarah Palin will play in the Spanish North, argued several e-mailers who differed with Dem analyst Harry Pavlides who argued the opposite on Thursday's blog. He also said Light Guv Duane Denish would be an effective foil for Palin in NM. Here's a sample from the e-mail bag:

"Sarah Palin plays well among the Northern Spanish...They are mothers. Some have children with disabilities. The vast majority are pro life in accordance with the teachings of the Catholic Church. Nearly all believe that life begins at conception. It is plain nonsense that Denish is a counterpoint to Sarah. Sarah Palin is a hit among Spanish Democrats...Denish is a child of political privilege. In contrast Sarah is self-made..."

MICHELLE OBAMA IN ABQ

The presidential campaign continued Thursday in Battleground New Mexico as Michelle Obama fired up a crowd at the University of New Mexico Student Union Building. It was the kick-off of the Obama's 30/30 campaign--register 30,000 new voters in 30 days. Pictured in the back row, far left, is NM first lady Barbara Richardson. Next to her in the red top is former ABQ state Senator Janice Paster. Behind Michelle in the front row and wearing all black is Jill Cooper, wife of Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall. And directly behind Michelle Obama is NM Lt. Governor Diane Denish, who headed up Hillary Clinton's NM campaign, but is now on board with the Obama's.
(Click to enlarge.)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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New drama was breathed into an already melodramatic race for the White House Wednesday night as political unknown Sarah Palin, 44, stepped onto the national political stage and confidently--sometimes almost cockily--accepted the Republican vice-presidential nomination. She becomes the first woman in her party's history to do so, adding yet another element of uncertainty into a contest that is perplexing the pundits and providing the most exciting backdrop for a presidential face-off since the strife-torn 1960's. (Speech transcript here. Video here.)

In key swing state New Mexico, the political community dropped everything to focus on Alaska Governor Palin in Saint Paul. Veteran NM Democratic analyst Harry Pavlides was among them, and we peeled the political onion with him on the late night beat.

HOW DID SHE DO?

She has talent...She is going to be formidable. She made no mistakes; she hit every line, every joke, the way it was supposed to be. She's a pro, an entertainer, a communicator.

HOW DOES SHE PLAY IN NM?

The Republicans are going to be able to send her around most parts of the state. The only place I don't see her playing well is in the Hispanic north. She is dangerous for the Democrats because as a woman and a mother, she is going to be hard to counterattack. Because she had a solid debut, some Hillary Clinton supporters could be wooed. Not many, but all it takes is a few in a close race. Will they say, 'If we can't break the glass ceiling with Hillary, we'll break it with her?'

HOW DO DEMS DEFEND?

Obama is going to need women like (Lt. Governor) Diane Denish to take on Palin when she comes here. (Palin will be in ABQ Saturday with McCain). Another Anglo woman taking her on is the safest route. Denish fits the bill.

WON'T PALIN BE FORGOTTEN SOON?
Pavlides
This time may be different. She is the first Republican woman in this position. We could still be talking about her in October. The best thing for the Dems is if they could take her out early in the VP debate. For now, I expect Palin to give McCain a bigger post-convention bounce than he would have gotten without her. That alone is significant.

OTHER THOUGHTS?

Sarah Palin is Spiro Agnew in a pony tail. She will be a pit bull with lipstick. But she held back on the extreme right-wing rhetoric. That gives her a chance to appeal to moderate moms in the 35 to 50 age group and independents who are leaning Obama...

Thanks, Harry. For those under a certain age, Agnew was VP under Nixon. He was known for his ardous defense of Nixon and his attacks on the media--"nattering nabobs of negativism."

READER REACT

From the e-mail bag following the Palin speech: "...She gave a great speech. The question is can she handle the response? The gloves are definitely off. As we would say in the Fighter Squadron, "Fight's On!"

TOP R'S BASH PALIN

Top GOP analysts Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy must have wanted to crawl under the table when they learned what they thought were off-mike remarks on MSNBC about VP pick Sarah Palin were actually picked up and taped. Noonan, one of the nation's best political speechwriters, was caught calling the Palin choice, "political bullshit.' Murphy, a longtime confidante of McCain's, called the choice "cynical" and "gimmicky." Noonan added that she believed the campaign was "over" for McCain. Later, she maintained, "I do not think the campaign is over, I do not think this is settled, and did not suggest..that 'It's over.'

Remember politicos, the microphone is always on, if you're in front of one.

ABQ CONGRESS: NEW ACTION
Heinrich vs. White
Supporters of Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich were buoyed by a poll released by the Roll Call newspaper Wednesday showing him ahead of Republican Darren White 51% to 46%. The poll of 631 likely voters, conducted Aug. 26-28 for Roll Call by SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, had a 4-point margin of error.

Politics watchers will immediately note that there can't be only 3% of the electorate undecided at this early stage of the race. Also, we are awaiting the ABQ Journal's first poll which uses a tight screen to determine the most likely voters. Still, any independent poll that shows the Democrat leading is a shot in the arm, and a warning shot across the bow of White and the Republicans. We asked political veteran Steve Cabiedes, who has worked the district over the years, for his take.

"The rope a dope strategy by both candidates--basically not doing much real fighting--may now be working more for Heinrich. If there is a Democratic wave forming, it could carry him in with Obama. We've been talking about how Heinrich needs to get moving because he is the lesser known of the two, but the same applies to White."

The Dem wave of 2006 almost swept Patrica Madrid into office over ABQ GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson. Heinrich advocates are saying a Dem Tsunami wave in ABQ could carry their man to victory. Much of the former city councilor's strategy seems hooked to that notion. It's not so much the specific numbers in the new poll that are important--they can be argued over---it is the trend that is getting Martin's heart beating a little faster.

MORE ON THIS

The poll also shows Obama carrying the ABQ congressional district by a huge 55% to 41% over McCain. That's probably too large a lead because of the survey method and a Dem convention bounce. Kerry won the district by just three points when Patsy came so close to Heather. Can Obama do better? If the polls start to say so, it will be more good news for the Dems and will put more pressure on Darren to define Martin and prevent him from riding any OBama coattails. Still, look at Darren's favorables in the poll. They are pretty good, and could serve him well in the rough waters ahead.

TV TIME

So far, Heinrich has booked about $44,000 in time for the coming four weeks on KOB-TV, a check shows. He has also booked time through most of the election on KRQE. Campaigns pay for their time weekly. We are not yet seeing any TV buys for White.

SARAH IS COMING--REALLY

The confusion over whether Sarah Palin will join McCain in ABQ Saturday appears to finally be over. The Alaska Governor will be here, says the campaign. But they sure had a hard time figuring it out with the media getting different stories from different campaign people. It seems there is drama following Palin wherever she goes.

MICHELLE IS HERE, TOO

Heinrich
There's a lot going on in Martin Heinrich's first TV ad for the up-for-grabs ABQ congressional seat. The issue is whether any of it will stick. Heinrich mentions an array of issues--energy, the Iraq war, the slow economy, Bush's unpopularity, veterans and taxes--all in a 30 second spot. The strongest line is when he says he is running because "I believe in a new start for New Mexico." The soft-edged ad seems aimed more at women than men. The many themes in the spot could have been culled from a focus group. The ad puts points on the board for the former ABQ city councilor as he attempts to overtake early favorite, Republican Darren White.

The Bernalillo County sheriff has not yet gone up on TV, but has stronger name ID than Heinrich. Those hoping Heinrich would come out swinging early will be disappointed, but then he is not yet well-known enough to start swinging the bat at the other guy.

The Heinrich "something for everyone" ad reflects his low-key and get-along personality. However, by the time the campaign is over, he will have to shed that skin and show that not only is he a reasonable candidate, but a tough one.

Media insiders say Heinrich has booked broadcast time at the major network affiliates for the duration of the campaign. This first ad began airing this week.



HOYER WITH HEINRICH

We wondered aloud recently whether US House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer would do anything for the Heinrich campaign after we broke the news of the big fund-raiser Hoyer was having for northern congressional candidate Ben Ray Lujan today in Heinrich's ABQ backyard. Well, Heinrich's campaign says Hoyer is also doing a fund-raiser for Heinrich and will also tour Sandia National Labs with Heinrich. But it seems the big money for Hoyer's visit is going to go into the Ben Ray kitty. Big Bill is one of the Lujan party hosts.

SETTING THOSE ODDS

In setting the early odds on the ABQ congressional race Tuesday, we said the Alligators Heinrich goes off as the underdog with 3 to 2 odds and that you would get $5 on a two dollar bet. Tom Rutherford is one of several e-mailers who said something was amiss with that calculation:

"I think 3 to 2 odds pay $3 for a $2 bet. To get $5 you need 5 to 2 odds. You're not spending enough time at the track."

Tom is right, of course. In our first draft, we did not mention that the $5 you got back with your 3 to 2 odds includes your original $2 bet. Not that anyone around here is betting real money, but here is an odds payout chart for those interested.

NOEL THROWS TOWEL

Jim Noel
La Politica claims another victim. After a spate of controversy, Jim Noel says he will not accept the position of elections bureau boss under Secretary of State Mary Herrera. Noel is the son-in-law of Tom Udall who is engaged in a hot US Senate race with Republican Steve Pearce. Noel is married to Amanda Cooper, stepdaughter to Udall who is also her father's campaign manager. Republicans raised a ruckus over the appointment, filing a request for documents pertaining to his hiring. The insinuation was that Big Bill engineered the Noel appointment and that Noel could not be fair supervising the election because of his relationship to Udall.

Couldn't Noel, an attorney and head of the Judicial Standards Commission, withstand the heat? Well, Big Bill has enough problems to deal with and Udall doesn't need questions arising about the legitimacy of any Senate victory he scores. The clash does raise the question of judgment. Neither Herrera, Big Bill, Udall, Cooper or Noel saw this storm coming. Why not?

SOTO SAGA

Was he or wasn't he? Fired that is. Roy Soto, Big Bill's cabinet secretary for Information Technology, announced recently he was leaving the post and will return to work at a family business, which includes IT management. One of the Alligators on the inside claims there is more to the story:

"Soto was fired by the governor. Soto took the Office of Information Technology and parlayed it into a cabinet post, and then hamstrung every single NM agency by requiring any and all IT purchases and contracts to be approved and possibly challenged for a better deal by his office. His own kingdom...A consortium of large national IT providers approached the Governor with a statement that Soto was unfriendly to business and wanted only to send contracts to politicals. Essentially, they told the governor either him or us. Guess who won? They did, and so do the NM agencies who no longer have to go through hoops to get contracts approved.

Soto, 64, reached in Texas, insisted he was not fired by Big Bill. "The Governor asked me to reconsider leaving. He thought it was a mistake." Soto said. He added: "We tightened up contracts...and standardized practices. Some people were not happy..."

Soto, a longtime New Mexico government and political operative who has supported Richardson politically, spent five years with the administration. He became a cabinet secretary when the IT agency was established last year. Marlin Mackey of Tax and Revenue has been named acting secretary.

PEARCE AND THE NATIONALS

The Dems may try to make a big deal out of this, but we don't think it is that big of a deal. The National GOP Senatorial Committee says it is canceling ads planned for GOP US Senate contender Steve Pearce. First, we never thought they were going to do ads for Pearce. Second, we just blogged this week that our media mavens report third party interest groups--the US Chamber of Commerce and the conservative Club for Growth have together bought $250,000 in TV time that is currently airing. The question is will that third party money continue to come. If it does, the national GOP decision not to buy ads here for Pearce will be incidental. Also, we need to keep in mind Pearce's last resort option--spending money from his own personal oil fortune which he is reluctant to do.

THE LIBERAL MOTHERLAND?

Reader Gary Simpson says we are drinking the liberal Kool-Aid, and cites our comments on the pregnancy of Sarah Palin's daughter in Tuesday's blog when we noted the pre-marital pregnancy was not "exactly following the teachings of the churches."

..Regardless of their religion, teenagers make dumb decisions every single day. Teenage girls get pregnant. Just like Al Gore's son got arrested! Just like John Edwards has been screwing a woman while his wife has cancer. And just like Clinton was getting BJ's in the Oval Office. One of the things that originally attracted me to your blog was an attempt on your part to remain nonpartisan...Unfortunately, in recent months it feels like you have drifted to the liberal motherland."

Aah, the liberal motherland. So soothing. Thanks, Gary. But we get equal heat from both sides. That's because when it comes to the foibles of our beloved politicos, we are decidedly nonpartisan.

Four GOP Horsemen (Bralley)
After a week of Obamamania, the R's own this week and will use their national convention to try to spread goodwill for their entire ticket. Here in NM that means (pictured left to right) US Senate contender Steve Pearce, ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White, southern congressional contender Ed Tinsley and northern hopeful Dan East. Can these four GOP horsemen outpace their rivals in the final stretch of Campaign '08? Let's head out to the track.

PEARCE VS. UDALL

Pearce is about ten polling points behind Dem Tom Udall. The northern Democratic US Rep is a 7 to 5 favorite, as set by the Alligator pool. That means a $2 bet on Pearce would pay $4.80 if he comes in. Those odds are tighter than some, but Pearce is showing moxie and enough money to keep Udall on the run. A key assumption is that he ends up motivating the GOP base and other conservatives. Pearce still has to get a better ground game. Udall has made a minor error or two, but nothing serious and the big trend favors him. Udall needs to get off the run and hide gambit he is doing with regard to the public forums. Just do it, Tom. You are not that wary of a verbal screw-up, are you?

DARREN VS. MARTIN

Darren White is the favorite to beat Dem Martin Heinrich for the ABQ House seat. Our Gator pool (based on late-night cell phone conversations and gut checks) says if you take Heinrich you deserve 3 to 2 odds, meaning your $2 bet gets you $5.00 (including your original wager), if Heinrich overtakes White. He could. There's sixty days left, but the Heinrich horse was hardly seen at the track this summer. The ABQ West Side and NE Heights remain problems for Heinrich. He has much to do to get those odds down in the ABQ district which has always come thru for the R's. White's bad back is a wild card, but only if it keeps him off the campaign trail. More likely to impact this race is the TV debates and other face-offs where Heinrich needs to force an error.

HARRY VS. ED

Ed Tinsley started as the clear favorite following the June primary, but the Dems have Harry Teague running hard and with fire in the belly. He is the first congressional hopeful up with TV ads, and they aren't bad. He also hails from SE NM, where congressmen from this district traditionally come from. And the former Lea County commissioner has shown he isn't afraid to write a check from his personal oil wealth. The Alligator odds on this race, somewhat surprisingly, are currently even money for either Ed or Harry. Polling is showing no one is yet close to closing the deal down there. Again, the even money odds are as of today. Tinsley supporters in disagreement say they would bet their house on Ed at those odds. Okay, just don't let Fannie Mae hold the mortgage.

Tinsley came with no summer media and made a verbal error that made national news. There are worries over his money-raising abilities as well as his campaign staff shakeups. Teague can't go off as the favorite because the D's haven't taken the seat since the 1980 election. Also, Tinsley should be able to pull ahead in this reliably conservative district if he becomes a more steady jockey. Still, we start the final stretch in the unusual position of this being the congressional race to watch, not the big run in ABQ.

EAST & THE NORTH

Dan East would be a 50 to 1 underdog if he was facing Dem Ben Ray Lujan alone, but there are two independent candidates--including the well-known Carol Miller--in this race and that muddies the track a bit. But Dem Lujan still goes off as a 15 to 1 favorite to end up in the winner's circle. Only if his horse takes a spill because of a major error will the Dems be denied in this heavy D district.

So say our Gators at the track, and we don't usually see them tearing up their betting tickets in frustration. We'll recheck the odds often as the race continues.

THE PALIN FACTOR

No sooner had we finished blogging Monday that GOP VP pick Sarah Palin could give the McCain campaign some legs in conservative counties like Otero and Chaves, then the news breaks that the 17 year old unmarried daughter of the Alaska governor--an abortion foe and evangelical Christian--is five months pregnant. That's not exactly following the teachings of the churches. Whether it helps or hurts Palin, it again illustrates the dangers of politicians preaching morality. Palin has not established herself as a moral watchdog on the national scene, so she probably escapes the hypocrisy charge, but those holding her up as America's moral watchdog, may want to stop their barking. By the way, Palin will maker her first NM campaign stop when she visits ABQ Saturday with John and Cindy McCain.

CHAMBER TV BUY

Insiders are now coming with a money total for the US Chamber of Commerce ABQ TV buy against Dem Tom Udall. They say it is $100,000. Combined with Club for Growth ads for Pearce, that is $250,000 in TV, keeping pace with the well-monied Udall who has condemned the Chamber ads. The question is how much more will these two independent interest groups buy for Pearce?

POLITICAL NON PROFITS: CONTINUING COVERAGE

What continues to fascinate readers about the NM political nonprofits who are arguing that they should not have to disclose their finances is their utter and unrepentant hypocrisy, a position shared by some Internet writers on the payroll of the nonprofits--directly or indirectly. Here, succinctly stated, is the huge advantage nonprofit status provides:

Nonprofit organizations are not bound by the federal election laws which govern the behavior of political parties and candidates. Nonprofits are not required to disclose their donors to the public, and there are no legal limits on the amount of money they can accept from any given source. And while political parties and individual candidates are barred from taking money from particular sources - such as unions or corporations - non profits face no such restrictions

Aren't NM ethics advocates--including the political nonprofits--advocating a limit on NM campaign contributions? Aren't they also advocating full and complete disclosure to the public of campaign money? Indeed they are. But not for them. No wonder Attorney General King is throwing the law book at them and demanding that they come clean. Now he is being accused of threatening "free speech" because he is not providing specific guidelines for the nonprofits. Come on, folks. If you have a campaign flyer out there basically calling a politician an SOB, it's campaign time. You can call them an SOB, just tell us who is paying the bill.

As for providing standards for nonprofits, they have federal nonprofit status--there is stuff all over the Internet on what they are allowed to do and innumerable court cases, too. The political nonprofits and their financially subsidized advocates need to stop acting like the politicians they abhor and practice what they preach. If they can't or won't, Attorney General King needs to make them.

ONE OTHER THING ON THIS

And the nonprofits also seem to be running amok on the national scene. Obama is getting nailed by one of them over his relationship with a 1960's radical. Those financing this are protected from having their contributions revealed? It seems campaign laws have more holes than Swiss cheese.

THE BOTTOM LINES

I am really serious about this campaign. Here I am fresh from the body piercing shop in the background where they successfully implanted a cell phone in my ear. They say it will fall out after sixty days. Wish me luck, Gators.

Keep us posted. E-mail your latest news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Another eventful and chaotic political week is underway in the nation and New Mexico this Labor Day 2008, with the Minnesota GOP national convention blown off course by Hurricane Gustav and our state preparing to welcome McCain to ABQ and dry land shortly after he becomes the official prez nominee of the GOP. TV news is also reporting that Michelle Obama will visit NM Thursday, which retains its swing state status despite Obama's post-convention polling bump. McCain will be at the ABQ Convention Center Saturday at 6 p.m. to bask in the post-convention glow. That is, if there is any as we all brace ourselves for what is to come in the South.

New Mexico's delegation to the national confab was arriving in the Twin Cities Sunday. Much of the talk was about the hurricane cancelling events at the confab, but three was also buzz about McCain's new running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, and how she will play in these parts.

Insiders were betting that Palin could be a nice draw for McCain in the most conservative NM counties--Otero and Chaves, for example--because of her ties to the Evangelical community and her ardent abortion opposition.

But will she help beyond those bedrock conservators? Probably not. By mid-October the average voter will probably barely notice Palin or Dem veep nominee Joe Biden.

CHENEY FOR TINSLEY

Our informed reliables confirm that VP Dick Cheney will host a fund-raiser for GOP southern NM congressional candidate Ed Tinsley. Hobbs is a possible location, but no final word yet.

PAUL IN SAINT PAUL

Former GOP Governor Gary Johnson will be one of the featured speakers at the "Rally for the Republic" to be held by supporters of Texas Congressman Ron Paul in conjunction with the national GOP convention. Paul, an outsider, sought the GOP nomination on a largely libertarian platform. He was not without support, raising significant money. He scored 14% of the NM June GOP primary toe, even though McCain had long since locked up the nomination. As for Johnson, who will go down in history for his calls for drug legalisation, was never comfortable with the GOP, using it to secure the governorship for eight years, but leading with a decidedly independent and libertarian bent. He now lives in Taos. Could he make a political comeback here if he wanted to? It's unlikely. In the long run, his drug position did not sell with most of the GOP, and third party candidacies are notoriously difficult to launch.

PEARCE FATHER DIES

From the Steve Pearce Senae campaign Monday morning:

This morning, Melvin Pearce, father of Congressman Steve Pearce, passed away in Temple, TX at the age of 86. Congressman Pearce has cancelled his appearances at all public events for Monday. Details on the service are pending.

WHERE AM I?
Adair
It's never a dull moment for controversial Roswell are State Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair. Here's the latest from the Roswell Daily Record:

Apparently unaware of the boundaries of his own district, state Sen. Rod Adair cast an illegal vote during the 2008 Pecos Valley Artesian Conservancy District election which ended in a tie, according to documents obtained by the Daily Record from the Chaves County clerk's office.

FBI AND SANTA FE

The political intelligentsia will be keeping tabs on this story. They usually do when the initials--FBI--pop up. And they have. The investigation is into a state transport contract. Big Bill's fundraising is mentioned as a point of interest.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Noted without a hint of irony in the Roswell Daily Record

Inside the old Cover Up Cafe building, Chaves County Republican Party Chairman Will Cavin noted the location's visibility, adding "The ultimate goal of opening up a headquarters is to get all our candidates elected in November."

That's the most visible Cover-Up any of us will ever see.

E-mailyour news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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