The campaigns kept us interested this week, delivering a few unexpected curve balls. The latest was the AARP complaining that Dem ABQ congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich was proving difficult to pin down for an October 17 prime time debate on KRQE-TV with GOP rival Darren White. Isn't the lesser known candidate--in this case Heinrich--supposed to be aching for TV face-offs? White has accepted the debate invitation which news anchor Dick Knipfing told us earlier in the week "was in the works."

Heinrich's campaign is putting a lot of emphasis on the field operation and getting out the vote, but avoiding a debate could become a PR gaffe that more than offsets work they are doing below the radar. Maybe they believe the early polling showing them ahead and now see risk to a debate. Whatever the political calculation, Heinrich and White have an obligation to present themselves. If either of these novies to the statewide stage tries to avoid TV face-offs the media and the public need to spank them hard. We'll keep you posted.

MORE CAROLINE

The Obama campaign took heat this week when a schedule of exceptionally high-dollar fundraisers set up for Caroline Kennedy made the rounds. That set off complaints that regular Dems would be excluded from seeing the daughter of President JFK. We wouldn't be surprised now to see a public event or two included on her schedule before she sets down for her Sept. 26-27 visit to ABQ, Santa Fe and Taos.

HOLY BATMAN!

Is Lady Di ready for the caped crusader? Leave it to Big Bill to say it's too early for him to make an endorsement of anyone--including movie star Val Kilmer--seeking the 2010 Dem Guv nod, even though he offers that he holds Di, his Light Guv, in "high regard." How about that? It seems the relationship between the state's #1 and #2 hasn't warmed much. In fact, you might say it's as cold as an ex-wife's heart.

BARACK BOOTY

The best guess on where Obama will be September 18th is Las Vegas, NM in San Miguel County or somewhere in Rio Arriba County. Both are in the heart of the Spanish North, and although the Obama camp is skeptical of that Rasmussen poll showing their man getting just 47% of the Hispanic vote as we begin the final stretch, he can't take anything for granted.

We blogged yesterday about the Big Bill ABQ fundraiser Obama will attend while in NM on the 18th. Insiders point out that Obama decided not to take public financing for his campaign so he and his surrogates continue to devote valuable campaign time to mixing it up with affluent supporters, rather than out where the voters are. It gives McCain a bit of advantage since he has taken the public financing and isn't as pressed to shake the money tree.

SENATE OUTLOOK

Republican Tony Olmi is a longtime reader around here, who takes time to give us his assessment of the NM congressional combat:

New Mexicans have grown accustomed to having their tortillas buttered on both sides. A Democrat and a Republican in the US Senate, and with a mix in the House, seems to have worked well to bring home the bacon...I predict we will continue to have bipartisan representation in the Senate and the House. This also helps to maintain balance and insure our well-being with whatever party controls the White House and Congress. Now we should consider similar principles and thinking for our state House after over 40 years of Democrat control. Hardly seems democratic. Your thoughts?

Like you, Toni, I am most concerned about how NM fares on Capitol Hill with all these newbies. Having some from both party has, as you point out, been a winning recipe for us in the past, but in the end, you gotta go with the best candidate--whether D or R or independent.

THE SARAH SURPRISE

The Sarah Palin pick garner this anonymous Democratic reader's attention

Two weeks ago most of us had never heard of her and now she is a rock star. If you wrote the story of her into the plot of a movie, critics would howl that the story line is not believable. No presidential candidate would make a pick like McCain did and no nominee like Palin could possibly give such a stellar performance on only her sixth day on the national stage. She is so confident and commanding in her own way that she scares me to death. Any normal human being would have been a quivering blob of jelly after the scrutiny and media attacks of her first six days..The normal rules of human behavior don't seem to apply to her. McCain made a terrible decision, for the wrong reasons, using a flawed process, yet it may turn out to be what turns the election in his favor. Go figure.

TUBE TALK

That first TV ad from ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White is being paid for by both the R's national congressional committee and the White campaign. We blogged the national part earlier this week. The bio ad started running today....We were told that GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce would use funding cuts for Los Alamos in a media spot, but the insider who told us that said he confused it with Pearce's new spots that continue to hammer nuclear energy, which is what they deal with in Los Alamos..

NEW FACES
Rawlinson
The major parties are girding for all-out action over the next seven weeks. One of the names you will be seeing and hearing leading the charge for the NM GOP is new spokeswoman Shira Rawlinson. We asked her to introduce herself to La Politica:

I grew up in Los Angeles and graduated from University of California, Davis with a degree in American Studies..Before moving to Albuquerque in August, I worked at the California Republican Party in the communications department and interned in the British Parliament for a Conservative MP.

She says In her free time, she enjoys traveling, channeling her inner Ina Garten, watching episodes of the West Wing and spending time with her boyfriend and their dog Bruno.

Shira might want to tell Bruno and the boyfriend to chill. There's some late hours ahead.

THE BOTTOM LINES

NM syndicated columnist Ned Cantwell is back again, sticking the needle in us and some of our Alligators. Not that we and they don't have it coming....We need a better start than this to informing New Mexican voters...

Back Monday. Thanks for the company.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The Democratic tsunami is turning into a puddle and if the Dems aren't careful they could suffer an electoral drought in this crucial swing state. The latest weather report comes from the Rasmussen poll taken Monday and which shows McCain besting Obama for the first time this year. It's McCain by two--49% to 47%--a statistical dead heat. And McCain--or maybe we should say Sarah Palin--brought along underdog Steve Pearce for the ride. The GOP US Senate contender is now just seven points down to Dem Tom Udall--51% to 44%. On August 20, Udall was at 51% but Pearce was at 41%. The Hobbs oil man has picked up three on the favored Udall, finally making it a single digit race. However, among "likely voters" Rasmussen shows less change. Last month Udall led 52% to 44% among that group. He now leads among likely voters 51% to 44%. Still, the story has been Pearce's momentum. Now we wait to see if and when it hits the wall as many experts suspect it will.

The McCain camp, knowing they are benefiting from a post-GOP convention bump and the selection of Palin as their Veep candidate, moved to take advantage. "The momentum is really shifting over to McCain-Palin," crowed McCain NM finance director Ken Zangara, who also revealed to us that he will host Mitt Romney at his ABQ home September 30 to raise money for Pearce.

The new survey was enough for Rasmussen, who last month showed Obama beating McCain here 48% to 44% with leaners included, to move NM from the “lean Dem” category to "toss-up." Welcome aboard, Mr. Rassmussen--we've been expecting you.

INSIDER POLL INFO

A huge surge by McCain among independents and a mediocre showing by Obama among Hispanics are the key reasons behind the GOP surge, according to the poll's cross tabs which were generously purchased for us by the Alligators.

Obama scores only 47% among Hispanics in the poll of 700 likely voters that was conducted by automatic phone calls and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%. No wonder the Dem Prez hopeful is heading to the Spanish North on the 18th and no wonder Caroline Kennedy is visiting there the 26th.

Those fickle independents apparently fell in love with Sarah Palin and the bipartisan message McCain delivered at the GOP convention. They flocked to him by a margin of 65% to 24% in this survey. There is surely convention "bounce" in there, but that was of little comfort for Dems. They were busy changing out their tsunami surfboards for knee high boots to cope with the mud of the highly charged and negative campaign now certain to come.

Pearce also benefited from an independent surge, if not as much as McCain. The southern NM congressman scored 50% of them compared to Udall's 38%. Last month Udall had 48% of the independents, compared to Pearce's 39%.

Pearce was ahead among men by one point, but Udall had a big lead among women. The northern NM congressman scored 53% Hispanic support, six points better than Obama and Pearce garnered 41% among Hispanics, one point less than McCain.

LOOKING AHEAD

The key question now is where Pearce goes from here. Hammering Udall over energy policy in numerous TV ads has helped Pearce consolidate the Republican base and make nice inroads with independents, but women still resistant to his conservatism are key. They are keeping Udall above the magic 50% mark and still the favorite to take the prize.

But a seven point lead is a far cry from the heady days of July when Udall was so far ahead--by nearly 30 points--that Pearce needed a telescope to find him. Now Udall has been given an official wake-up call. Also, the media, more or less hands-off on this contest, is now going to get in it. There is going to be more pressure by them and the public to see these two candidates sparring together. The coyness about confrontation emanating from Udall may be challenged more vigorously. He remains the solid favorite, but no longer has "sure thing" for a middle name.

The Pearce polling was especially poignant, coming as it did on the heels of the news broken here Tuesday that Pearce and his supporters were more than upset that he was not permitted to speak at the McCain-Palin ABQ weekend rally. Those who made that decision have some serious egg on their face. KOB-TV's Dyson has confirmed our Alligators' take with the Pearce camp. (Video analysis of the Rasmussen poll and Senate campaign with Dyson here.)

US HOUSE IMPACT
Tinsley
And don't forget Darren White and Ed Tinsley. The Republican US House candidates were among those relishing the GOP's move in the Rasmussen poll. After all, in ABQ, Dem Martin Heinrich, is counting on a huge Obama showing to help carry him to victory over Darren. Not that that couldn't still happen. But basing a campaign strategy on it now looks as relevant as an eight track tape player.

As for Tinsley, he may benefit the most from a GOP surge which is sure to be strongest and more permanent in the conservative south where he faces Dem Harry Teague in what is turning out to be a spirited battle.

Watching from the sidelines and now under increasing pressure is Big Bill. Obama needs him to shore up the North, but we're getting the same vibe we did with Kerry. Values voters in the North are not aglow over Obama and the underlying issue of race still lurks. Richardson has his work cut out for him. Meanwhile, Bill's approval rating from Rasmussen remains worrisome.

"Gov. Richardson earns good or excellent ratings from 45 percent of voters in New Mexico, while 29 percent say he is doing a poor job. Those ratings have slipped slightly since last month."

That's well below the 50% mark, raising the question of how much muscle Bill has to bring Obama the votes he needs.

None of the polling results we've discussed today is a huge surprise. The Alligators for months have been saying they see the US Senate race as a five or six point deal and favoring the Dems. And they nailed this state as a toss-up months ago, despite the protestations of the far-out partisans on both sides of the aisle. But it's like a hurricane. No matter how much warning you get, when it hits, it changes everything.

OBAMA VISIT

My Gators are working overtime for you and come with more breaking news regarding Obama's September 18th NM visit. Obama has now added an ABQ fundraiser to his schedule hosted by Governor Big Bill at the home of his friend and Downs at Santa Fe owner Paul Blanchard. The afternoon reception is going for $2500.00 per person and includes a photo with Barack. They are also asking for big money givers to put up $28,500 each which would be shared with the Democratic National Committee.

(The previous well-past-Midnight-post made possible by a grant of several cases of caffeinated "Zero" Coke that may last to Election Night, but probably not. Eddie Lopez and the gang at Coke say they are standing by to refuel us. Between them and Starbucks, we've got you covered. Thanks to all my sponsors for making the blog possible!)

THE MAILBAG

The readers are chomping at the bit to get their thoughts in on this hyperactive political year. We are definitely overdue in going to the mailbag, so off we go.

Talk radio pioneer and longtime Dem Mike Santullo gets us started by calling on the NM Obama campaign to "answer the wake-up call" and schedule events for Caroline Kennedy's upcoming state visit that average income people can access.

Whether this Kennedy likes big crowds or not is not the issue...get her in a small crowd for free...Obama needs to appeal to Mr. and Mrs. Wal-Mart, not the caviar crowd. We need to be talking hot dogs and hamburgers, not caviar. Add an event for her that is not an expensive gathering of Santa Fe liberals...put here at a community center--even a small one--if security is an issue. The schedule of big money fund-raisers for her is not how you campaign in northern New Mexico.

Santullo is not the only Dem worried about the North under performing for the Dem candidate as it did four years ago.

ON THE SCENE

A Senior Alligator of the Dem variety, not easily impressed, checks in from the campaign trail.

I saw (Dem congressional hopeful Martin) Heinrich speaking at the Economic Forum. His delivery was excellent and he hit his alternative energy, economy, and Iraq war talking points skillfully. In the question and answer period he dealt extensively with the drilling now vs. alternative energy, water availability and No Child Left Behind issues. He spoke for about 25 minutes and took questions for 10 minutes. I was impressed.

Something so nice about a candidate? We must be getting soft letting that get by. More from the reader email bag and an update of the latest political news right here tomorrow.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

No one is going to accuse GOP US Senate nominee Steve Pearce of being a spendthrift. Working to stretch his campaign dollars as far as possible, Pearce has taken the unusual step of cutting three, 15 second TV spots. Reviews of the ads have been wide ranging, with some calling them exceptionally clever and others calling them slightly weird. Here's a sample.



Media insiders say the point of the 15 second ads is to increase the volume and frequency of Pearce's message without spending as much as Dem contender Tom Udall who has raised much more cash than Pearce. The Pearce ads air closely together, with two ads airing within two or three minutes of each other during the same commercial break.

If that's the clever part, what's the "weird" part? Maybe the way Pearce drones: "How did you vote, Tom?" He looks like a prosecutor out of a Kafka novel. Of course, that means they may work. One wag wondered why Steve has to be so financially clever when he is worth gazillions of dollars earned in the Hobbs oil patch. Why not just write a check for a cool million and get this game going full-steam? Of course, it's always easy to spend another guy's dough. The other two Pearce ads are here and here.

WHITE TIME

More now on the Darren White TV story. Our insiders tell us the first bio spot for White will hit Friday, but it's being paid for not by the White campaign, but by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (RCCC). That's interesting because it speaks to the financial standing of White. The Democratic committee has booked $1.2 million on behalf of Dem contender Martin Heinrich. We don't have the total for the Republican committee, but that they are coming for White is no surprise. White's campaign continues to hunt for money, sending out an email in which he says "we have the wind in our face." Heinrich came out ahead in a recent SurveyUSA poll. Both campaigns have been taking hits in the political community for being way too mellow. It seems they spend a lot of time raising money, but not much time raising hell. Is that how they will act if elected to the Congress? Let's hope not.

FAVORITE TUBE

Caroline Kennedy Now & Then
Move over Sarah P. Caroline K. is on her way. The daughter of President JFK will do a three stop NM swing for the Obama campaign September 26 and 27, hitting ABQ, Santa Fe and Taos. But some of Caroline Kennedy's fans with thin wallets are concerned that they will not get to see her. Several generations of Northern New Mexicans have responded to the Kennedy mystique. It is built on the family's unflinching support of civil and human rights and the Catholic faith they share with many Hispanics. But many of them now appear to have reason to believe they are priced out of her NM stop. So far, all of the events making the rounds for Caroline's visit are high dollar. And we mean high dollar. Take a look:

Friday, Sept 26--Debate Watch and Reception with Caroline Kennedy, Santa Fe @ the Home of Debbie Fleischaker; 5:30 – 8:00 PM $2300/person (host $23,000)

Dinner with Caroline Kennedy Santa Fe @ the Home of the Paul Bardacke and Lisa Enfield 8:00 PM $10,000/person (or raise $28,500)

Saturday, Sept 27--Brunch with Caroline Kennedy Taos, NM @ Café Loka Exact Time TBD – (About 10 AM) $250/person (host $2500/person)

Women for Obama Biden Brunch with Caroline Kennedy, Albuquerque, @ the Home of Randi McGinn, Exact Time TBD – (About 1 PM) $500/person, Young Professional $250/person (Host $5000/$2500 –YP)

One Obama northern backer thinks all this is over the top for the largely low-income north.

Norteños love the Kennedy's. If they had free public events for her, people would cross rivers and mountains to see her and believe in her support for Obama. Rio Arriba County especially needs the encouragement. But as it is, it is prohibitively expensive for most people and has every appearance of being elitist, just as the GOP claims Obama is. La Gente won't see her. People are talking about the cultural and economic divide that this represents. The organizers do not have the political savvy to even invite the precinct chairs as guests. Que Lástima! (What a shame!)

GOP Ticket Buys El Pinto Salsa
So, New Mexico's Lobos aren't going to make the Final Four and the UNM football Lobos are hemorrhaging like a Roadrunner slammed by a speeding Bill Richardson in a souped up Lincoln Navigator. Take heart. All is not lost. On the field of La Politica, our little land is getting a respite from its long-term inferiority complex. There, our linebackers dominate and our jump shots are all no-net three pointers. California and New York? Mere electoral pipsqueaks. For when it comes to the Final Fourteen states that will decide this historic presidential election, it's New Mexico on the court and the big boys on the bench. There wasn't a nationally televised news conference to announce the draft picks for the final stretch of Campaign '08, but the campaigns giving the word to the New York Times was an equivalent substitute. And here they are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Take that, Texas A&M. You did a fine job Saturday of trouncing those Lobos and stealing Rocky Long's newly-enlarged wallet. But when it comes to the game that counts, Texas isn't even in the bleacher seats. Next time, if you treat us nice, we might send Barack or John over for a visit. Or maybe even Sarah. Meantime, you lose the big game on a forfeit.

YOU'RE RESPONSIBLE

Now, some bad news about being on the Final Fourteen battleground list. There is special responsibility that goes with this accolade. New Mexicans, the focus of worldwide media attention, will now be required to know the names of all five of Sarah Palin's children--in order of birth. And, while Californians and New Yorkers just need to know the candidates and what party they belong to, here in Final Fourteen land, you are on notice to know the first name of McCain's 96 year old mother, the list of drugs Obama experimented with, all the names of the Keating Five and how many cases of Budweiser Cindy's beer company ships each month. After all, you don't want to let your state down when CNN sticks a microphone in front of you. So let's get cracking, New Mexico. Open those Wikpedias. You do want to make the Final Four, don't you?

CAMPAIGN ON

The presidential contenders never have New Mexico far from their minds. Kind of like that friend you mostly trust, but not enough to loan them your car. So they keep coming back, trying to cement the relationship; to gain the trust they must in the end have to secure the state's vital five electoral votes. This weekend it was the May-December match-up of McCain-Palin rolling into town and September 18th it will be Obama's fifth NM stop and his first venture into the heavily Democratic Spanish North. McCain hasn't reached that far north yet, either. But he got a warm up taste at El Pinto in ABQ Sunday before leaving for Battleground Missouri. (See our Sunday blog for more.)

Whatever "it" is, Sarah Palin's got it. The fresh GOP VP nominee and Alaska governor showed her stuff to an adoring crowd of over 6,000 at the ABQ Convention Center Saturday night. And if her newfound star power wasn't enough, the McCain campaign trotted out superstar actor Robert Duvall to double the pleasure of the Republican faithful. It was an unmistakable case of Saturday Night Fever and the McCain camp, struggling to get a handle on Battleground New Mexico, had to be pleased, even if some of the crowd was asking, "John Who?" ((Video)(AP coverage)

Dems organized a well-covered protest--a tradition at these events for both parties--but there was no denying that the Palin Presence fed right into the electorate's soft spot for the next new thing. For the 72 year old McCain, new, as Martha Stewart would say, is a "good thing."

PALIN POWER?

The ABQ rally could not have come at a better time for McCain. CNN has NM leaning Obama. Other national media say it's still a toss-up. Our sense is that there is plenty of time for either side to turn it their way. The verdict is far from in. A central question is whether Sassy Sarah, who is turning on the GOP base, will help to renew McCain's campaign here.

The freshly minted GOP prez ticket arrived at Cutter Aviation in ABQ late Saturday afternoon. McCain's wife, Cindy, was also on the trip. Meanwhile, not to be forgotten, Obama's campaign announced Saturday he will do a northern NM visit Sept. 18. (All photos by Mark Bralley.)

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author