Heinrich & White
There's a memorable line in the pool hustler movie "The Color of Money" that comes to mind in describing the Thursday events that pelted down on La Politica. As the pool shark played by actor Tom Cruise has the table run on him by another hustler, Cruise is brutally and cockily teased with the line: "It's like a nightmare, isn't it? It just keeps getting worse and worse." You could just hear New Mexico Democrats using that line on their backs-against-the-wall Republican foes. And with good reason.

R's across the state were stung as news spread that the national Republican congressional committee was essentially pulling the plug on ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White; that Meet the Press had canceled this Sunday's NM US Senate debate which Republican Steve Pearce badly needed to get a breakout moment and as the stock market crashed yet again, with the Dow shedding seven percent of its value. It was enough to make a Republican strategist fall off the wagon, and several probably did.

Gloating, kicking your opponent when he's down, illegal choke holds. All of it is allowed in the winner take all game of power politics. ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich, who might be enjoying success selling vacuum cleaners to lonely housewives if he wasn't running for Congress, is learning to use all of them. It was Heinrich's campaign, with unconcealed relish, that disclosed that the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee will not put up $500,000 in TV time it had promised Republican White, a possible death knell for the Sheriff, who is already being heavily outspent by Heinrich and his third party allies. That was the knife; here's the stab:

"It's actually kind of sad. After the hundreds of thousands of dollars Darren raised as chairman of George Bush's reelection campaign you'd think his buddy Bush would help bailout his failed campaign."

The NRCC will put up about $232,000 in tube time for Darren starting October 14th rather than $732,000. He is already lagging in the polls, and now this. His campaign could only feebly spin that he would "have the resources" to continue. What resources are those? A state rebate check from Big Bill?

SPIN NEVER DIES

But spin never dies. In White's case the AP came with a report that quoted TV station officials as saying that the NRCC canceled a buy, but they can't say for which candidate. What? There is some other Republican candidate running for Congress in ABQ? What? The money was all meant for Ed Tinsley? What? Do they have a bridge they want to sell us?

He may not have to face the voters again, but for a variety of other reasons Big Bill and his operatives were quick to seize upon the good news offered up by an ABQ Journal poll showing that 61 percent of "likely voters" approve of the job Bill is doing as governor. In dismissing previous out-of-state surveys showing his approval rating considerably lower, a Bill acolyte dubbed the Journal a "real" poll and dismissed the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA numbers that had shown the Guv's public image slipping.

The Journal survey conducted Sept. 29 thru Oct 2 found that 61 percent approved of the Guv's job performance, 26 percent disapproved and 13 percent were undecided. That contrasts with a Rasmussen Survey from early September. At that time we blogged:

"Gov. Richardson earns good or excellent ratings from 45 percent of voters in New Mexico, while 29 percent say he is doing a poor job. Those ratings have slipped slightly since last month."

So what's the deal? How can there be such a large disparity in the approval ratings? It is explained by those who specialize in such things that the Journal poll is picking up truly "likely voters" and the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls which showed the Guv's job rating below 60 percent are picking up less likely voters. They say these less likely voters and citizens not registered follow the news less closely and can be more whimsical in assessing the performance of public figures. Likely voters also tend to have higher incomes and higher education levels. The specialists say when you use automatic phone surveys you can't screen out non-voters or unlikely voters as effectively as with in-person telephone interviews which the Journal uses.

If likely voters are all that matters, the Guv's seems to be doing well. Among the public at large, it's fair to say that he remains a generally positively viewed politician, but not overwhelmingly so.

BILL'S JOB

Richardson, serving his second four year term, doesn't have to face NM voters again, so his popularity rating in that regard is irrelevant. But he is on the hunt for a job in the Obama administration and appointing a popular governor to a top job is a lot easier than one who dwells in the ratings cellar. A high rating also gives Big Bill some body armor from those who will be competing with him for those top jobs and perhaps shooting arrows his way.

If the Guv's is still here in January when the 60 day legislative session kicks off, a perception that he remains popular among likely voters could help him with his policy proposals. However, as one lawmaker explained, his rating may not matter much to the Legislature. "After six years, we're tired of dealing with him and he's tired of dealing with us."

CHECK IN THE MAIL

The state rebate checks approved by the Legislature and Governor and based on a projected oil and gas surplus started to get mailed this week, but with oil and gas prices crashing, not a few lawmakers are worried that the state can't afford to give out the money. The Guv says the situation merits watching, but we aren't seeing anyone stopping the money from going out.

NANCY'S HIDEAWAY
Pelosi
The third most powerful government official in the USA was in ABQ Tuesday night, but unless you were at a high-dollar North Valley fund-raiser that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi attended on behalf of ABQ congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich, no one would know it. For the most part, the media let the visit pass without a mention. The only notice that she was even in town was on your blog where we posted the fund-raising invite leaked to us by the Alligators.

KRQE-TV was one media outlet that did make an effort to get a comment from Nancy. They staked out the debate watch party she was attending with Big Bill, Light Guv Denish, Senator Bingaman and other Dem party heavies. But she was whisked in and out of the home of developer Gary Goodman without a peep.

The station and others asked us what the deal was--why was Nancy hidden away like a pearl in an oyster? As we told KRQE, the main reason was probably because we have two close NM congressional races featuring a lot of undecided conservative Democrats. Martin Heinrich is winning 65 percent of the Dems in the Journal poll in his race against Republican Darren White. The Dems remaining on the fence are of the ABQ conservative variety. They don't especially take to San Francisco liberal Nancy. Double that notion for the southern congressional seat where Dem Harry Teague is neck and neck with Republican Ed Tinsley and who needs solid conservative support to put him over the top. On top of that is the unpopularity of the current Congress and Pelosi--both have cellar-dwelling approval ratings.

White might have been able to squeal some over Pelosi's visit for Heinrich, but his back is against the wall in this race, and criticizing any member of the district's majority party probably carries more risk than its worth. Without the press forcing the issue, the woman who helped engineer the largest economic bailout in history and who help sets the agenda for the USA was able to much on some New Mexico treats, be regaled by the likes of Big Bill and Lady Di and disappear under the cover of night without any inquiring minds disturbing her. Such is the disconnect in these bizarre political times we live in.

EAST'S DIRECTION

A supporter of northern GOP congressional candidate Dan East e-mails in questioning the Journal's poll of the north showing Dem Ben Ray Lujan garnering 41 percent of the vote to East's 18 percent and independent Carol Miller's 14 percent. The margin of error in the poll is the largest ever seen for a Journal survey--8.9 per cent--and had the East backer questioning why.

That is a whopper of an error margin and would kill the credibility of a survey conducted for the ABQ or southern congressional districts, but up north where Dems rule the survey is not in much danger of getting it wrong. Lujan's lead is still outside the large margin of error. However, that begs the question as to why the newspaper simply did not interview more people for the northern survey and also why they decided not to do any polling in the red-hot southern congressional race. The answer is money. Polls are expensive and the newspaper, like other businesses, is feeling the economic pinch. The Journal traditionally does three election polls in the big years, but will only do two this year, with the second and last one expected close to Election Day. The irony is that in the biggest political year in modern state history, polling coverage is shrinking, not growing.

THE BIG NIGHT

Can someone break open the tight southern congressional race tonight? It is the big night for Republican Ed Tinsley and Dem Harry Teague as they take part in a televised debate that will be aired across the state and nation. It kicks off at 7 p.m. and runs an hour. It will air on KRWG-TV in Cruces, and KNME in the ABQ area where it will also air on KANW 89.1 FM. C-SPAN will televise the debate nationally.

Tinsley is sure to try to pigeon hole Harry on his position on gun ownership. That's the only TV ad Ed has up against Harry. It is on that and other cultural issue the Republican hopes the race will turn, but the big issue--the economy--is breaking the Dems and Harry's way and we expect him to drive the point home tonight,.

The debate tonight is part of the New Mexico First series of congressional town halls. They tell us they would like to get more response for its northern congressional town hall next Tuesday at Rio Rancho, so here is the info if you would like to attend. The northern TV debate will take place at 7 p.m.

Northern New Mexico Town Halls, October 14, 1-5 pm; TV forum 7-8 pm Town Hall Hall and Debate: Rio Rancho High School (CD3 candidates: Ben Ray Lujan, Daniel East, Carol Miller)

The TV debate will air next Thursday on KNME-TV at 7 p.m.

LINING THEM UP

Take a look at this from the Obama NM campaign. If these are Obama votes they can get to the polls, it is going to be a pretty big deal.

Barack Obama’s Campaign for Change (CFC) announced that it surpassed its goal of registering 30,000 new voters in 30 days. Statewide, CFC registered more than 35,500 new voters from September 7th to October 7th, the voter registration deadline.

POPULIST PEARCE

GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce comes with this new ad touting his opposition to the massive Wall Street bailout. This is a more assertive, louder-voiced Pearce, pushing a populist agenda. The ad faults "greedy corporations" for the economic calamity. Trouble is, his Dem US Senate opponent, Tom Udall, also voted against the bailout. Pearce benefits some but not nearly as much if Udall had been on the opposite side of the fence.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The AP is starting to hit with its candidate profiles. Here's the Martin Heinrich brief and the one of Darren White. It sure seems Darren is getting outspent on the tube by the Heinrich campaign and its third party allies....Sheriff White announced Wednesday the union that represents his deputies has endorsed his candidacy. So has the ABQ Police Officers Association. White is trying to deflect a powerful TV ad from the Heinrich campaign that points out that when White was head of the state department of public safety, the NM State Police Association gave White a vote of no-confidence because they thought White wasn't providing officers with adequate equipment and cars...

Longtime NM lobbyist and attorney Dick Minzner e-mails in on the $700 billon Wall Street bailout. "...The purchase of old loans in the hope this will result in new loans being made seems like indirect trickle-down lending. Would the money not be better used to make new loans...?"

Meantime, will someone at one of the upcoming TV debates ask Martin exactly how he would have voted on the $700 billion bailout? He never has answered. It is probably just an oversight and he is really welcoming the question. You think?

E-mail your news and comments and help us cover Campaign '08.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Whitney Paul & Martinique Chavez
What will it take to get Obama and McCain to show some passion? Last night's 90 minute presidential debate, held against a backdrop of some of the most startling and serious economic news in a generation, tuned into the unlikeliest of snooze fests. Both candidates delivered their canned scripts with aplomb, but passion, historic knowledge and deep-seated convictions about getting us out of the mess were not the order of the night. Abe Lincoln or even Bill Clinton, they are not, but they're all we got. Look on the bright side, neither McCain or Obama will jump out a White House window because of the stress of world events. These guys could sleep through a Rolling Stones concert.

While Wall Street burned, the candidates did not exactly fiddle, but neither did they inspire the confidence the nation so desperately needs. We watched the debate at a "smart party" hosted by ABQ Dem Margaret Aragon who invited a group of undecided voters to her North Valley home to talk about what they had just seen. None were jumping for joy for either candidate at the end of the monochromatic affair.

The evening did cause our cynicism to be mothballed momentarily as we spoke with two 18 year olds--Whitney Paul and Martinique Chavez--who this November will be voting for the first time. The economic crisis hasn't just rattled the IRA and 401K crowd. The newest generation of adults is worrying about more than what to put on their iPods.

"I'm scared about the economy. Will I be able to pay for graduate school?" said Paul of the La Cueva High School Class of 2009. Fortunately, she'll be able to get a lottery scholarship to start on her undergraduate degree at the University of New Mexico, but today's kids have been taught to plan and look ahead. Right now they might prefer to bury their heads in sand.

And Martinique Chavez, a UNM poly sci major with law school plans, may represent 18 year old women across the nation who are suddenly forced to worry about matters usually deferred until they're at least old enough to party down at a Vegas nightclub. "When I have a family, will I be able to afford the things my children need? The economic news--the stock market--is scary. What is the future?" She wondered after watching the two would-be presidents.

It doesn't get more real than that, but the candidates, while verbally agile and well-informed, did not seem moved by the challenges that await them. They seemed more like skilled mechanics pondering a faulty cylinder, or those synthetic news anchors who read story after story with the same drone of mock concern. My analysts summed it up:

"The debate was the equivalent of a warm bucket of spit," analyzed veteran Dem Mike Santullo. "I can't say it was anything that he said that won the debate for Obama. It was more that he sounded presidential," chimed in analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides.

Looking the part is the first step; acting it is the second. The third part is the toughest--doing it. America can now only hope that somewhere within Barack Obama or John McCain the makings of a Lincoln or an FDR lie dormant, ready to be aroused on Inauguration Day.

SOUTHERN CAL MEETS NORTH VALLEY
Margaret Chavez
LA Times reporter Seema Metha also hung with us at Margaret's debate party last night. She put this story together on her laptop perched on the kitchen counter. Aspiring journalists, here are some money lines to show you how it's nailed:

The gathering was spawned by Aragon de Chavez, the ex-wife of the city's three-term mayor, Martin Chavez. During their 17-year marriage, Aragon de Chavez grew accustomed to running in political circles and meeting candidates at fancy fundraisers. After their divorce in 2003, she felt disenfranchised.

In her former life, Aragon de Chavez on Tuesday would have attended an up-to-$12,300-per-person fundraiser/debate-watching party across town that featured Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and her husband. "It's humbling not to be the wife of the mayor," said the 49-year-old single mother of two, who said politicians pay little attention to ordinary voters.

BEN RAY'S STANDING
Ben Ray
Northern Dem congressional hopeful Ben Ray Lujan could be up a lot more in the ABQ Journal poll if he had started his TV advertising early, so why didn't he? A couple of reasons. Lujan, 36, is considered a shoo-in to take the heavy Dem district. Early advertising would not change that expectation. Also, money is an issue with the slew of races gobbling up any loose dollars that can be found. Insiders estimate Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, has raised about $400,000 since the June primary. A decent TV buy costs at least $100,000 a week. Lujan, who polled at 41 percent in the Journal poll conducted last week, can be expected to be up on the air the final two weeks.

Rio Rancho contractor Dan East polls at 18 per cent and independent Carol Miller at 14 percent. East will not have enough money for much TV, but is doing radio. Miller will scramble to put up what she can. Her 14 percent is based on her high name ID from the many political races she has run. But Dems, according to the Journal poll, are not flocking to her candidacy. Conventional wisdom says under normal circumstances a third party candidate's support declines into Election Day. If so, Miller could be expected to finish with about 7 per cent of the vote. East should score in the low to mid- 30's.

A recent editorial in the Los Alamos Monitor endorsing Miller for this seat being vacated by Tom Udall shows the pitfalls for Lujan. An open seat invites the unexpected. Also, The Journal poll has a huge margin of error of 8.9% because of the small sample. Also, the northern district can be tricky to poll, another reason for Lujan to work like a mule.

For Lujan it is not so much the victory he has to worry about; it would take a game changing event to deny him. But he wants a very strong showing to kick-start him in D.C. There will be three new US House members from the state and if Lujan shows any weakness it could encourage chatter about a 2010 primary and/or general election challenger. A big win would free him to be more aggressive on Capitol Hill. Lujan is up on radio and in the mailboxes and traveling the district. Each extra vote he gets will make him that much stronger when he starts wrestling with the Alligators--and perhaps his fellow NM House members.

THE BEAR'S FOOTSTEPS
Blogger & Sen. Pino
The footsteps of the bear stalking Wall Street and now Main Street are starting to be heard on Paseo De Peralta--the street that is home to the storied New Mexico Roundhouse where 112 lawmakers will gather in January for a sixty day session. But if this rare consumer-led recession continues unabated, they may not need 60 days because they won't have the money to do much of anything.

Even liberal Dem State Senator Jerry Oritz y Pino, a leading advocate for government spending to attack a range of social ills, is glum about the state;'s short-term financial prospects. He says theprojected state surplus for the current budge year appears to be all but wiped out by plunging oil and natural gas prices. He says we can be thankful that we have some $600 million in cash reserves that will cushion an expected decline in gross receipts and other taxes in the coming year. But if oil and gas explores new lows and stay there, who knows where it will lead.

Governor Richardson is not about to make the state looming financial shortfall front-page news. He is busy campaigning for Obama and doesn't want the distraction. He is ignoring calls that the state start cutting back spending now in preparation for the downturn. For now, the ample cash reserves serve as a fall back argument for the Guv, but following Election Day, no one is going to be able to look away from the car wreck blocking our fiscal highway.

ON THE TRAIL

State Senate Minority Whip Lee Rawson is in a spirited campaign with enviro Steve Fischmann in his Las Cruces area district. But can Roundhouse veteran Rawson really be beaten? A operative for Dem Fischmann makes the case

An important race to compare is the 2006 Congressional race, where, in the districts that make up Rawson's Senate district, Democrat Al Kissling lost to Steve Pearce by only 1%. Pearce was well-financed and Al Kissling had nothing, and Al still almost beat him there. (Las Cruces Mayor) Ken Miyagishima's win against popular incumbent Bill Mattiace in the 2007 mayor's race showed the tide is turning in Las Cruces--Ken's city council district is contained within Rawson's district and provided Ken a strong base of support.

Rawson's run-in over a capital outlay bill he sponsored and which benefited a property his family owns is adding spark to this contest. Also, the Republican brand is in the tank, adding another factor that has this race on the watch list.

MORE STATE SENATE ACTION

If an Obama landslide develops in Bernalillo and Sandoval counties, Republicans in the know say they will have to make sure GOP State Senators John Ryan and Steve Komadina are not threatened. Ryan is seeking election to his second term and is being challenged by Victor Raigoza who has run for office before. John Sapien of Sandoval County is trying to oust Komadina who represents Corrales, medical doctor seeking his third term. Dems say Sapien, from a political family, has the pedigree to pull the upset, but may need help from Obama as Komadina has high name ID and no dark clouds hanging over his head.

CREDIT UNCRUNCHED?

NM lenders may be tightened lending standards in the wake of the credit crunch, but apparently not to the point where getting a loan is unusual. At least that's the finding in this unscientific reader poll conducted by NM Business Weekly. At last check, fifty-four percent of those responding say they have had no trouble getting credit for their business while 38 percent have.

Have news? comments? Suggestions? E-mail them in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thousands upon thousands of New Mexican voters could care less about the upcoming TV candidate debates, the last minute TV commercials and the flyers flooding into their mailboxes. They are among those closing the gates on Campaign '08 by voting early. Today, the first day of early voting, will attract several thousand of them. It's a process that will continue until the end of the month and, my experts say, account for as many as 60% of all the votes cast in the November 4th election. If we have a turnout of about 800,000 that would mean an early vote of 520,000. Each year the percentage of the electorate choosing to forego traditional Election Day voting grows forcing campaigns to adapt.

Voters love early voting because they can make their decision and tune-out the inevitable barrage of negative campaigning that defines the modern election cycle. Some of the media is starting to adjust by having their TV debates earlier and newspapers are starting to come with editorial endorsements in time to catch the early voters. Monday the Santa Fe New Mexican came with one of its earliest ever endorsements as they gave the nod to Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall. While early voting is a great convenience, those who decide to play traditionalist and cast their ballot at the local school on Election Day may be rewarded for their patience with smaller lines and a chance to chat up their neighbors.

WHITE LAGS HEINRICH

New Mexico Republicans were jolted anew Monday when the ABQ Journal released its poll of the ABQ congressional district. For the first time this early in the cycle the Democratic nominee is leading the R. Dem Martin Heinrich leads Republican Darren White 43 to 41 with 16 percent undecided.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The R's said they had delivered a golden boy in a Dem year that would keep the seat safely in GOP hands, continuing a 40 year trend. But polling prior to the Journal's showed that thesis in doubt--Heinrich's own late September poll had him leading by three-- and this poll confirms that underdog Heinrich is very close to being called the favorite. Not that the race is settled--far from it--but Heinrich may be positioned for a somewhat rare feat in ABQ congressional politics--benefiting significantly from the coattails of the presidential candidate. The Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff say Obama is winning the metro area by 51%. McCain comes in at 34%. White is already outrunning McCain by a big margin. There's only so far he can run with that, while Heinrich has more room to grow in the direction of Obama.

The fly in the proverbial ointment for Heinrich is those conservative Reagan Democrats. The poll says he is earning 65% Dem support. Many D's don't know the former one term city councilor and there are others who are skeptical because of his liberal background. On the other hand, Heinrich has opened up a lead among the crucial independents (47 to 31 and 22 undecided) who normally go to the GOP. That is very good news indeed for Heinrich, who can now afford some bleeding among those conservative D's if he continues his head of steam with the indys.

Fifty-one percent of Hispanics polled favored Heinrich while White was favored by 32 percent, with 17 percent undecided or who wouldn't say. That's not too bad for Darren at this stage. Heinrich needs to work the South Valley harder and bring these voters home.

How can such a highly touted candidate like White be in such deep trouble? The national Dem trend is, of course, the primary reason. Heinrich remains a relatively unknown quantity. Many voters are voting against the Republican---never mind who the Dem foe is. No wonder the Alligators report that White was nowhere to be seen at McCain's ABQ visit Monday.

EVEN MORE ANALYSIS

Beyond the terrible environment for R's, White's campaign failed to campaign over the summer. They did nothing to define Heinrich or renew White's relationship with the electorate. Because he did not have sufficient funds, White came late to TV. The sheriff has shown himself to be knowledgeable about law enforcement, but not the other issues--particularly the economy--that a US congressman must deal with. He has also labored to present himself as "an independent voice" but has done little of note to demonstrate that independence. He has not rebutted Democratic charges that he is really a child of Bush, whose Bernalillo County campaign White co-chaired in 2004. Long ago, White broke with his Governor and quit his job. Now, he may face a similar decision in his relationship with the President.

The sheriff and his handlers did not seem prepared for this level of political combat, believing his long record in law enforcement would be accepted and rewarded by the voters. But that record was never presented and it turns out that many voters had only a shallow relationship with the sheriff. His record is now being presented to the voters by the Democrats in highly negative campaign ads. White has responded with one of his own, but the campaign is being fought on the wrong ground for the R's. The issue should not be whether White is a good sheriff but the competence and abilities of the Democratic candidate--the traditional route to victory for the R's in the ABQ district.

Heinrich doesn't have a lot to gloat about. As we said, he is the beneficiary of the national trend. His campaign has overspent, had various personnel issues, hid the candidate at times and been generally lackluster. Having said that, Heinrich has proven himself resilient by not making any public mistakes and being a relatively adept fund-raiser. This candidate has taken some hits that border on the personal, but has kept his cool. His restraint has served him well and perhaps given voters a sense that this is not the hapless, weak-kneed caricature that his foes were hoping would by now be his defined image.

There will be several TV debates between Heinrich and White and a mistake by either candidate could shake the race. The contest remains a toss-up but Heinrich has a tailwind and White has a headwind. But leading on coattails has dangers. If Obama should fall on his sword, Heinrich bleeds. Still, for a Democrat to be ahead in the ABQ congressional race on the day early voting begins is a first-time accomplishment. For a moment at least, it blacks out 40 years of unpleasant memories.

HARRY AND ED

Sorry, no ABQ Journal poll for the big race in the southern congressional district featuring Dem Harry Teague and R Ed Tinsley. Seems the recession is taking its toll. Teague did have some news Monday. His campaign said:

(We) raised approximately $1,096,000 in the third quarter, which runs from July 1st through September 30th. Teague loaned $500,000 to his campaign during the quarter, bringing his total personal contributions to approximately $1,265,000...Sixty-four percent of total individual donations came from within the 2nd Congressional District.

The national D's and oil wealthy Harry are outspending Tinsley on TV. Ed's been hammering Harry on gun ownership and now he's come with the endorsement of the NRA.

FATHERS OF SUCCESS

We received a new copy of that invitation for the ABQ debate watch party tonight of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on behalf of Martin Heinrich. This one, unlike the first one we posted, prominently lists Governor Richardson and Senator Bingaman as hosts for the fund-raiser. Heinrich is doing well for now, so you can't be surprised that success has many fathers. (Click on image to enlarge.)

MAC'S RETURN

McCain rolled into ABQ for a quick visit Monday that won him the usual intensive nightly news coverage the campaign yearns for, as well as the live coverage of the three cable news channels.Beyond that, there was not much of a local nature that voters here would grab onto. Senator Domenici introduced him at the early afternoon rally at the Student Union Building at the University of New Mexico, a location in the heart of Obama country and which drew youthful protesters the TV cameras gravitated to. Video of McCain's speech here.

As we said earlier, our eyes on the scene say ABQ congressional hopeful Darren White did not attend the McCain event, apparently taking to heart that it is the Republican brand that is a prime reason he lags Dem Heinrich. Reps. Wilson and Pearce did attend, but neither made comments.

McCain will likely return as he trails Obama here by five points, but still has an outside chance for the upset. A stop in southern NM to beef up the conservative base may be in order. Or how about a solo visit from VP contender Palin? That would get those GOP hearts throbbing.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

McCain & Speaker Pelosi Back To ABQ
Just when you thought they had forgotten us, they're back. Today John McCain is in ABQ; tomorrow US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in the Duke City as New Mexico resumes its role as presidential battleground, even as polling shows Obama with a healthy lead, but not necessarily an insurmountable one. But does John McCain gain on Obama by going to the heart of Obama country--the University of New Mexico--for an afternoon rally today? The Alligators--who broke the news here that McCain would be in NM sometime this week--pointed out that the UNM area is locked, loaded and ready to fire for Obama. Isn't a 1:15 p.m. stop at the Student Union Ballroom akin to General Custer riding into the Little Bighorn? Why not put McCain on ABQ’s West Side or near NE Heights where his chances of persuading voters still on the bench are much better? Perhaps because he has to get out of here quick and needs to be close to the airport? If logistics are outweighing voter appeal, the campaign needs to take a deep breath.

Today's visit is one of those "by invitation" events, which means protesters and would-be hecklers will have a hard time getting into the SUB to heckle McCain, but if McCain was going to pick a spot where a Republican would find plenty of foes, it is a university campus. Dems have announced a campus news conference and voter registration rally to coincide with the visit. Tuesday is the last day to register to vote in the November 4 election. (Tickets to McCain available starting at 8 a.m. only at: McCain Headquarters 5643 Jefferson Street NE Suite B & C, ABQ.)

THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

McCain's NM campaign could be reacting to the doomsday scenario---he loses Bernalillo County by over 15,000 votes, Obama performs well in the Spanish North and there is nowhere left for McCain to make up the difference. Going to UNM could be aimed at dampening down the Tsunami forming in that area which could produce the fatal votes against McCain, but you can't stop a bursting dam with a twig, and going to UNM provides the Dems and Obama camp the easy opportunity to organize protests and make the media. But McCain bills himself as "The Maverick" and by stopping in the heart of the enemy he is certainly living up to his self-described billing.

McCain comes here on the heels of the first ABQ Journal NM Prez survey showing him trailing Obama 45 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent undecided and 1 percent going to minor candidates. The good news for McCain is that he is not further behind given the dismal economic news and the state's Dem registration advantage. The bad news is he is still poised to lose the state unless there is a game-changing event. Given the course of the campaign, the odds of such a happening may not be too far fetched.

INSIDE DOOMSDAY

Still, the dagger hanging over McCain here is the Bernalillo County math. Obama's organizational presence here is huge, and there are signs that the most dangerous saying in politics and stock market bubbles--"This time it's different"--could actually be true. The difference in 2008 being an upswing in youthful voters enamored with Obama, boosting his inner city vote in ABQ to the point that McCain is a goner.

The Arizona Senator is currently losing the metro area--defined by the Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff as Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia counties--by a margin of 51-34. The number sounds about right for Obama, but perhaps a tad low for McCain. The margin of error in the survey is 3.8%. Again, we see this race crystallizing around the crucial question of Bernalillo County. Kerry thought his nearly 11,000 Bernalillo vote win over Bush in 2004 was enough to protect him from the southern rural onslaught, the conservative suburbs and a so-so northern showing. It wasn't. He lost the state by 5,998. Polls say McCain can't quite match Bush's 2004 superior performance outside of ABQ, so if Obama takes the state's largest county by around 15,000 or more (out of about 280,000 cast), it is game set and tennis matches on the White House lawn for Obama.

SPANISH NORTH ANALYSIS

The Hispanic numbers in the Journal poll were gratifying for the Dems, if not yet conclusive. Obama was ahead 62 to 17 with 21% undecided. McCain may get most, but not all of those still unsure. But Obama will get his share and that would mean he would improve upon Kerry's 62% Hispanic showing here. More important is the turnout among Hispanics. Obama would win the battle but lose the war if Hispanics give him 68%, but Hispanic turnout remains as low as for Kerry. Which raises a question--perhaps for the northern press and the campaigns to look into--What are the Catholic churches in the north saying about Obama and his stands on abortion and gay marriage? Obama hopes, that unlike four years ago, they aren't saying much of anything.

Obama's Espanola visit two weeks ago was a deft step. He may travel north one more time in the final month, but the first order of business will likely be ABQ and boosting that turnout that would shut the door with finality on McCain. Second, is keeping the Hispanic north moving slowing but surely his way, and third is Dona Ana County where a quick visit close to Election Day should be enough to seal the deal.

SOUTH TO THE BORDER

McCain still needs to head south and boost enthusiasm and turnout in the southern congressional district where out-performance for an R Prez candidate is mandatory. Sanderoff separated out "Little Texas" in his polling this year. The Journal did not list the counties, but we have them as including Chaves, Eddy, Lea and Roosevelt. McCain is leading that mainly conservative area 64 to 23. The rest of the southern district, including Dona Ana, has McCain ahead 50 to 30. McCain is leading, but like Bush, he will need to blow the southern doors off if Obama surges in big Bernalillo.

ON THE FENCE

The percentage of undecided in the Journal poll--14 percent--is much higher than other surveys, and that's to be expected, but still raises questions about turnout and the effect of race on the contest.

Most of the Prez polling has been conducted by automatic telephone surveys which push for an answer. The Journal poll interviews likely voters over the phone, getting a clear read on the undecided. But 14 per cent is quite a bit with early voting starting this week. There's a lot of Democratic Anglo voters among them. Will some of them not vote in the Prez race? How many will vote for McCain? The ratings for the first TV debate between Obama and McCain were lower than expected, another reason some think that voter turnout might not be quite as high as anticipated. It is something we simply can't know for sure until Election Night.

SENATE SURVEY SAYS...

Not much to analyze. The ABQ Journal poll on the NM US Senate race between Dem Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce confirms Udall's lead. It's Tom 51 percent to Steve's 36 percent. Undecided is 13 percent. Pearce is in the unenviable position of having to win over just about all the undecided vote. Udall carries his home north by a stunning 75 percent. Not much to add to that. We'll keep you posted.

CONGRESSIONAL GRAND SLAM?

Recent polling suggests the once unthinkable--an all Democratic NM D.C. delegation. The Journal will soon come with congressional district polling, expected to hold good news for ABQ congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich as well as southern Dem contender Harry Teague. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson and I took a look at the possibility of all five members of the delegation going D. We had an all R NM delegation for a brief time in the early 80's. The Dems haven't held all of the state's federal seats at once since '68.

NANCY'S SMILING FACE

We're pretty sure US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi looks forward to being here tomorrow to watch the next presidential debate and fete Martin Heinrich at a fund-raising reception at the home of ABQ developer Gary Goodman. Mother hen Nancy would love to have three NM chicks to show around the Capitol and, of course, have them vote to keep her as Speaker. (Click on image of invite to enlarge.)

We thought we saw Northern Dem hopeful Ben Ray Lujan, the surest Dem winner of the NM bunch, thoughtfully mentioned in one of the e-mails going around about Nancy's visit. The House majority leader, Steny Hoyer, recently held a big fund-raiser for Ben Ray in Martin's home district, creating the impression that perhaps Ben Ray was getting a bit of special treatment from the House powers-that-be. If so, it will be more than made up up to Heinrich with plenty of nurturing from Nancy, Light Guv Diane Denish and other "Women Leaders" who are hosting what is billed as an "elegant reception."

Southern hopeful Harry Teague need not come around to pay his respects to Nancy and Company, although he could. The less the conservatives in the south are reminded that Harry and liberal Nancy would set up house together in D.C. the better.

KARI VS. LISA

The race for Bernalillo County District Attorney featuring two astute players is heating up and bursting into the headlines. Thursday Republican Lisa Torraco got the front-page splash she wanted as she hammered Democratic incumbent Kari Brandenburg over the DA's conviction rate. Friday Kari suffered another hit as her handling of a notorious double murder was called into question. Torraco took advantage and scored some TV time in addition to badly needed ink. She has also continued to hammer away with paid radio which you can listen to here.

We haven't seen any paid media from Kari yet; she has more financial resources than Lisa who last reported raising in the area of $50,000. Kari can be expected to come with TV ads and in your mailboxes soon. Torraco may or may not have enough for a TV buy that makes a difference.

Brandenburg is going for her third term after being unopposed for her second one four years ago. That is a long stint and the baggage can pile up. She has benefited from a friendly press and this year a seemingly big Dem trend in Bernalillo County. The race, on the front lines of crime fighting in a community riddled with crime, deserves high-profile play, but it is competing with many other high-profile races, putting more pressure on Torraco to get her message out against a well-known incumbent who only now is being asked to defend herself.

THE BOTTOM LINES

CQ Politics is one of the more conservative Prez ratings services. They've just switched NM to "lean Obama" from "no clear favorite."...Reader Ellen Wedum continues our coverage of the Wall Street bailout with this comment: "The second bill the Congress passed just adds more pork. I am disappointed in both Senators Domenici and Bingaman. It does NOT provide for any accountability, and it does NOT provide a way to pay for the $700 billion. A return to the corporate tax levels of the 1950's is needed to pay for this, not more national debt."

The ABQ Journal called NM's Senators "statesmen" for voting for the bailout. Were those the "statesmen" who loaded up the bailout bill with $150 billion in even more spending? The Journal faces off with the New Mexican on this one...

Thanks, Ellen. News? Comment? E-mail it in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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