• McCain spoke to a small crowd of about 1,000 to 1,500 at NM Expo grounds in ABQ Saturday morning. Complete McCain video here.
  
• Obama set for ABQ rally at University of New Mexico Saturday at 9 p.m.
  
• Huge Obama crowd expected. Temperature at 9 p.m. forecast at 56 degrees under clear skies.
• Hillary in Sunland Park, NM Saturday. Report and complete report and video here.
  
• Announced Saturday: Michelle Obama to Las Vegas, NM Tuesday at Noon.

It may have happened before, but we can't recall the two major party candidates for president of the USA both campaigning in our state on the same day in the final stretch. If you are willing to fight the traffic and crowds, you could see both Obama and McCain within hours of each other in ABQ Saturday. We imagine a lot of New Mexico parents and grandparents will take a deep breath and maybe a Valium as they gather the little ones and take them out to be a part of history. The photos a nine or ten year old will get Saturday will be memories of a lifetime. Imagine them taking those pictures out of an old dresser drawer in the year 2070 and reliving from 2008 that special day in their personal life as well as the life of the state and nation. Is it hyperbole to say that this election will influence what America will be in 2070?

Obama logistics. Stuff you need to know if you are planning on attending the Obama rally. McCain is at the NM Expo grounds where parking and such will not be a big issue.

THE FIRST TIME

The first major presidential nominee I ever saw was a President. It was 1972 and Richard Nixon made a brief stop at the ABQ Sunport. He was opposed by South Dakota Senator George McGovern. Prophetically, several in the large crowd held signs asking, "What about Watergate?" But the scandal that was to bring down Nixon would not unfold until after his successful November reelection.

Of course, watching Air Force One roll in was surreal. Seeing it set against the Sandia Mountains made it even more so. Seeing Henry Kissinger waddle off the plane was another lasting image. Nixon gave his speech just yards away from the most famous plane ever built. That packed more punch than any TV spot I've seen in the intervening 36 years.

In 1972, I also saw McGovern close-up. He came to campaign in ABQ in June and stayed at the ABQ Hilton at University and Menual which had opened a year earlier and where I was working as a busboy. He was ushered into the high-end restaurant of that era where he met with union representatives and others. Word rapidly spread among us working stiffs that McGovern had left either a $10 or $20 tip, an immense sum at the time. The minimum wage then was about $1.60 an hour. The prices and the world have changed much since then, but the indelible impressions left on a youthful mind linger. What a comfortable place to go when cynicism makes a run on idealism.

NOSTALGIA TRIP
Lujan, Cargo & Nixon
Our nostalgia trip got us talking to photog Mark Bralley who supplies us with this photo he took of President Nixon's 1970 ABQ visit. A young Governor Cargo and an even younger first term ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan accompany Nixon who spoke that day at ABQ's Highland High School. Thirty eight years later Bralley will be taking the picture of the future President, providing us with pics from the McCain and Obama Saturday visits which we'll post over the weekend. Do you think he'll send a few of proud moms and dads with kids on their shoulders enjoying the spectacle? And maybe some cool black and white ones, too?

MORE FROM OUR POLL

The race for US Senate is sputtering to a close. Our exclusive poll of Bernalillo County Tuesday night showed Democrat Tom Udall getting nearly 60% of the vote. He leads the ticket here as well as in Dona Ana County, the state's second most populous, and which we polled Wednesday night. In Bernalillo, it's Dem Udall at 59.4% and Republican Pearce at 35.3%. Just 5.2% of the 729 likely voters polled were undecided. Dona Ana, where Las Cruces is located, the results were almost identical. Again, Udall polled 59.4%; Pearce received 40.7% and 5.2% undecided. 221 likely voters were surveyed. We commissioned Positive Contacts Consulting to do the poll.

Our experts started the campaign projecting a 53% to 47% Udall win based on the initial Dem trend and historic turnout patterns. But that changed with the economic calamity that struck the nation and benefitted Democrats, including Udall. He now seems positioned to take the seat by double-digits, or at least 55% to 45%. One analyst who was spot-on before the economic crisis struck was Tim McGivern, who told us in July that he believed Udall would approach 60% of the vote. We'll know for sure Election Night if he got it right. The MOE for the Bernalillo poll was about 3.6% and 5.9% for Dona Ana. We'll have more polling results next week, including the favorability ratings for ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, NM Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima.

NOW IT'S LEAN DEM

D.C. insiders say the poll we commissioned this week and which showed Democrat Martin Heinrich ahead of R Darren White in Bernalillo County in their race for the ABQ congressional seat played a role in the decision of the nonpartisan and influential Cook Political Report to change its rating on the ABQ race from toss-up to lean Democratic. The report said:

Polling shows the Democratic lean of this district finally allowing Heinrich to overtake White. Ads highlighting White’s position as chair of Bush’s 2004 Bernalillo County reelection campaign refer to White as “Bush’s favorite sheriff” and have clearly taken a serious toll on GOP chances of holding this open seat.

Our poll of 772 likely voters conducted by Positive Contacts Consulting showed Heinrich leading White in Bernalillo County 52.20% to 40.63% with 7.16 undecided. MOE is 3.65%. Cook is also calling the Prez race for Obama.

Big Bernalillo makes up over 90% of the congressional district. The outlying areas, like Torrance County, lean R, but if Heinrich wins Bernalillo County by only a few thousand votes, he is likely to take the seat. The political community awaits the most scientific poll of the bunch--the ABQ Journal poll from veteran Brian Sanderoff. We think that one will be released the Sunday before the election and will pick up any final days movement.

STATE SENATE BATTLE

The latest polling in the hottest state Senate race this cycle continues to show Democrat Tim Eichenberg leading incumbent Republican Diane Snyder who is spending over $100,000 to try to get a third four year term to the Roundhouse from the ABQ NE Heights district. Eichenberg is also spending a boat load. Diane is pulling out all the stops, as you can see from the piece of literature posted here (click to enlarge) and which was mailed to her district. It points to a 1975 discrimination case Tim lost when he was Bernalillo County Treasurer.

In a response to the hit, Eichenberg said: "My opponent is on the attack because she is far behind in the polling...She's been reduced to dredging up ancient history--an incident from 33 years ago (Back when Gerald Ford was President). A year after the events described by my opponent, I was re-elected overwhelmingly with 63% of the vote...My commitment to civil rights, human rights and employee rights is total and unwavering....

The southern portion of the district extends down to the San Mateo and Menaul NE area, where my experts say a lot of Reagan Democrats and independent voters live. Obama and Udall are also running ahead in the district.

DEBATING AGAIN

Dem Martin Heinrich and R Darren White went up against each other and the World Series last night. In their second TV face-off, we are told there were no big hits or errors, unlike the game between Tampa Bay and Philly which the Rays won 4 to 2. The AP's Sue Major Holmes gave up her World Series viewing to file this report.

DEATH BY VOTING

John Lennon once famously sang, "I know what it's like to be dead." Do Ed Tinsley and Darren White? They should say joyous Democrats who are circulating a "Death List" of seats they say national Republicans have compiled and that they are writing off. If Ed or Darren, who both made the list, manage to win, will they have risen from the dead? If so, are there spirtual implications? Someone get us a priest.

RAWSON ROILED

It appears State Senator Lee Rawson, the Senate minority whip, is losing ground to his Dem challenger Steve Fischmann in the Las Cruces area district. Polling shows Rawson several points behind, never good for an incumbent. Rawson is now expressing concern about possible voter fraud, a sure sign that he is in deep trouble. In a big Dem trending year, we are now rating the seat lean Dem.

THE INDIAN VOTE

From the Guv's office:

Governor Richardson will travel to Gallup and Farmington Friday to meet with high school students who are using the state’s newly adopted Navajo language textbook and to discuss the importance of native language instruction.

Some Native American dominated precincts in McKinley and San Juan will go for Obama by upwards of 70% or more, but you have to get them out.

ACROSS THE USA

We helped out with USA Today's coverage of the GOTV effort in key swing states like New Mexico. Here's the scoop.

PEARCE VALLEY RALLY

What?? Steve Pearce is serving hot dogs and potato chips at his Saturday "Rally in the Valley!?" When did they stop serving the chicharrones and beef? No wonder the Democrats always carry the ABQ Valley; Republicans aren't feeding them properly.

Not that Dem Tom Udall who leads R Pearce big in the race for the US Senate has not had his missteps in the storied South Valley where politics dates back centuries. Back in 1988, Tom was running for the ABQ US House seat against Republican Steve Schiff for the right to succeed Manuel Lujan Jr. Tom also had a "Rally in the Valley" but he invited the state's most unpopular political figure of the time--Governor Toney Anaya. News of Toney geting on stage and urging a vote for Udall fell like a dud in the ABQ NE Heights. After that Tom could have gone door-to-door with enchilada casseroles and still would not rid himself of Toney's shadow. Schiff won and held the seat until his untimely death in 1998.

I remember calling that Udall-Schiff election like it was yesterday. It was our first year of Election Night coverage on public radio station KANW 89.1 FM. We celebrate our 20th consecutive year of Election Nights on the station November 4th. One of my guest analysts who started with me that night in '88 is still donating his time to the cause. Former NM legislator Lenton Malry, aka, "my cousin," will be back with us for year twenty. Scott Scanland was working with lobbyist Odis Echols in '88 when Odis was our chief political analyst. Scott took over from Odis in the 90's, and will be back again to, as he puts it "play Ed to your Johnny Carson."

To do anything 20 years running is a stroke of serendipity. But I guess if Tom Udall can keep running for political office, we can keep calling elections. Join us Election Night and for our pre-game show Monday, November 3 at 5 p.m.

THE BIRD IS BACK

Back to the US Senate race, the bird is back. That's Polly the Parrot who now rudely ribs Steve Pearce on behalf of Tom Udall. Polly has a speaking part this time around. She sounds as good as some of the stuff we've heard on the floor of the Senate. As we've asked before, can we write in the bird?

Meantime, Pearce is letting the Farmington Daily Times do some of his talking. They've endorsed the GOP contender.

DR. LFC

A reader who describes himself, as "Dr. LFC," (Legislative Finance Committee) writes us from Santa Fe:

"How come no one has come up with the idea of stopping the issuance of rebate checks? Is it because most of the legislators voted for them and still think it's a good idea? It was a lame idea then and it's worse now. It's just like the (Wall Street) bailout. The public needs to know what's going on but no one seems to want to tackle this political issue and get someone to explain how all this stuff evolves behind close doors. That's why our country and state is in such hot water.

Thanks, Dr. LFC. Maybe we should check with "Dr. No." That's the nickname given to Senate Finance Committee Co-Chairman John Arthur Smith and see how he feels about canceling those rebates. (Big Bill also supported them.) But we think John Arthur and the rest of the Legislature are all "Dr. Yeses" when it comes to handing out money to taxpayers before they cast their ballots. All 112 lawmakers are on the ballot this year.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From a reader in the ABQ South Valley:

"Joe, I have news. Turnout at the San Jose cemetery is higher than usual. Even the dead are voting early this year!"

Now that's bloggin'.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM. E-mail us here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

McCain & Teague
Why is John McCain still hanging around the Land of Enchantment? An exclusive poll conducted Wednesday night in the state's second most populous county provides one answer. The survey of 229 voters in Dona Ana County conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan by Positive Contacts Consulting shows Obama below the magic 50% mark. He was supported by 47.6% of the likely voters there and McCain was backed by 43.2%. Tying or losing the county narrowly is key to McCain's last hope of winning the state. He needs to galvanizie rural and conservative voters in the south and hope Obama does not overpower him in ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. Dona Ana is home to Las Cruces, but the city's approximately 86,000 residents represent less than half the population of the county which in 2006 was estimated at 193,000.

Obama & Heinrich Lead Poll
Barack Obama is still headed for a healthy win in the state's largest county and Martin Heinrich is well-positioned in his bid to become the first Democrat to ever win the ABQ congressional seat. Those are the findings of a poll commissioned by "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" and conducted Tuesday night (Oct. 22) by Positive Contacts Consulting.

In the state's most populous county Obama is leading McCain 55.05% to McCain's 37.05% with 7.90% undecided. Graham Bass of Positive Contacts calls the 18 point lead "huge" and that McCain's remaining hope is for a major surge in southern NM.

If Obama were to indeed take the county by the poll's 55%, that would give the Illinois Senator a huge margin here of 29,000 votes. That would position Obama to take a good shot at reaching 53% in the statewide total.

However, history shows the Republican will close. Still, this poll of 772 likely voters by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 3.65%, confirms the trend of other surveys taken in the county. Republicans are desperately trying to crack the race open, arguing that there is movement, but this poll shows none away from Obama in crucial Bernalillo County, welcome news for the Dems with early votes being cast by the thousands and Election Day 13 days away.

OBAMA TO ALBUQUERQUE

My Alligators confirm that Barack Obama will move to close out his New Mexico '08 campaign effort with a "huge" rally in Albuquerque Saturday night. Tentative plans also call for him to stay overnight. The rally will likely have a Hispanic flavor, a bid to appeal to the key Democratic voting block that appears to be closing ranks behind the first African-American presidential candidate. We are hearing a rally of time of about 9:30 at night, which could put Obama live on the 10 p.m. Saturday news and for sure the front pages of the widely-read Sunday papers. (Our inital report confirmed

Dems hope Obama's rally, combined with an intensive get-out-the-vote effort here, set him up for a blow the doors off win that prevents McCain from making a move, even with a strong rural showing. Obama is also heavily outspending McCain on NM TV, making it even more difficult for McCain to shake up the contest. But he is giving it the college try.

The Arizona Senator's campaign confirms he will be in Mesilla, in southern Dona Ana County on Saturday afternoon. TV news is reporting McCain will also stop in Durango, Co. Friday night. That visit will give him exposure into the Four Corners and conservative San Juan County. McCain's last chance for victory is an unlikely replication of President Bush's 2004 rural strategy in which he landslided places like Lea County with over 79 percent of the vote. Now late word has McCain coming to ABQ Saturday morning before heading to Mesilla as he works to catch Obama here. It's getting wild again around here.

The experts now say the problem is that Obama is running stronger than John Kerry in ABQ, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces. He also appears to be getting a better turnout among northern Hispanics than Kerry, meaning even if McCain matches Bush's southern rural perfomance, he would still lose.

HILLARY IN THE HOUSE

The Obama campaign will send Hillary Clinton to Sunland Park, NM, about a half hour south of Las Cruces, on Saturday. That should help counteract McCain's Messilla visit. Kerry won Dona Ana by a couple of thousand votes in 2004, but Obama may be headed for a bigger win there. We will get an idea exactly how big tomorrow night when "NM Politics with Joe Monahan" in conjunction with Positive Contacts polls the county.

But the big final stretch event promises to be the Saturday night Obama ABQ rally. Even at a late hour, it can be expected to draw thousands and rock the state. It is reminiscent of Bill Clinton's 3 a.m. ABQ stop on Election Morning 1992. That, too, was a year when change was on the political menu and the fervor of the Democratic base was as intense as its ever been. If Obama only equals that enthusiasm, he will be in good stead as the finishing line finally comes into sight.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

He could be the unlikeliest of winners Election Night. Democrat Martin Heinrich was not given much of a chance in the early analysis of his race against Republican Darren White for the ABQ congressional seat. But that's all changed. And how. First the ABQ Journal poll showed Heinrich ahead by two points. Now our poll shows Heinrich with a significant advantage and a good chance of becoming the first Dem congressman from the ABQ district.

In Bernalillo County, which makes up well over 90% of the ABQ House district, Heinrich leads White 52.20% to 40.63% and 7.16 undecided. If Heinrich stayed at that 52% level Election Night, our experts project it would translate into a countywide win of about 11,000 votes, more than enough to offset the remaining rural votes in Torrance, Santa Fe, Sandoval and Valencia that are available to White. Even a Bernalilo County win in the area of 6,000 should be enough to seal the deal for the former ABQ city councilor.

The risk is that Obama weakens in Bernalillo County. Heinrich is being pushed along like a cub bear of Obama's. If mama bear falters, so do the cubs. But Obama, as our Tuesday night poll showed, remains solid. His Saturday night visit should make him more so.

White is not finished, but he needs an aggressive close, perhaps something during this week's TV debates to backfire on Heinrich. With the Journal poll showing a Democrat in the lead in late September for the first time in history, plus the fresh findings of our survey of 726 likely voters, the ABQ race can safely be moved from the "toss-up" column to the "lean Dem" category.

WE'RE HERE FOR NEW MEXICO

We thank our advertisers for their financial support which made possible the commissioning of our poll. And we aren't done yet. Thursday we'll have our exclusive poll of Dona Ana County and the hot congressional race in the south, plus the Presidential race there. In the coming days we will also tell you how ABQ Mayor Chavez is doing with voters, as well as Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.

Exclusive analysis. Exclusive polling. It's why "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" continues to set the standard for political coverage in the southwestern USA. Thanks for being with us now and through the years!

TURNOUT TIME

Could total early voting amount to as much as 70 percent of the total votes cast in Bernalillo County? County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver thinks so. She says 55 percent of the county's vote was cast early and absentee in 2004 and she thinks 70 percent is likely this year. If that happens, Election Day voting ought to be a breeze. More importantly, thousands of votes are being banked while the Dems lead in all the polls. The R's could start to close in the days ahead, but the winning votes may have already been cast. Traditionally, Election Day voting attracts a more Democratic crowd. This time my experts say it could be more balanced because so many more Dems are now voting early.

This new early vote math demonstrates the importance of having campaign momentum going by mid-October. Won't it be fun this year to compare the early and absentee results with the people who cast their vote on the actual Election Day?

HELP BLOG THE DEBATE

Martin Heinrich and Darren White face-off for their first televised debate tonite at 7 p.m. on KOB-TV. We'd like your thoughts for Thursday's blog, so after watching the ABQ congressional candidates, send us an e-mail and let us and your fellow readers know who you thought won and why.

HISPANIC VOTE WATCH

This time from the Los Angeles Times.

SIGN OF THE TIMES

For your edification and amusement we present a llama for Obama, direct from Corrales and the camera of Janet Blair...

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Make sure to join us on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM for comprehensive coverage. We'll have the state covered from end to end for our 20th year of consecutive coverage on the public radio station. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland will be back as will former Democratic Party chairman and attorney John Wertheim who is an expert on NM congressional races. With the Dems threatening to take two seats they haven't held in decades, his expertise will be especially valuable. GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga will do another tour with us as well. If you can't catch us on the radio, we'll also stream the program on the KANW Web site. We look forward to being with you once again and will have more details as we get closer.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wertheim & Rep. Larranaga
John McCain is a man fond of surges and according to veteran New Mexican political analysts it is only the slim possibility of a noteworthy McCain southern surge that stands as the lone obstacle to Barack Obama claiming the state's five electoral votes.

"Going in, the main worry was the Hispanic vote, but support among Hispanics for Obama seems solid to me. He is going to deliver, and therefore take the state," declared former NM Democratic Party chairman ('04-'07) and 1996 ABQ congressional candidate John Wertheim.

Wertheim's take is backed up by the Obama camp. They feel the deal is sealed in the Spanish North and are sending Hillary Clinton south on Saturday. That is on the heels of a Las Cruces visit by VP candidate Joe Biden. Obama himself will make one more stop in NM prior to Election Day. However, that visit could very likely be ABQ, the state's media and population center where the Illinois Senator could put away the race by carrying Bernalillo County by an insurmountable margin of 20,000 or more votes.

State Democrats were pushing a CNN report Monday quoting top McCain officials as saying, "New Mexico and Iowa are gone. They are now off the dream list of the McCain campaign."

But even as that word circulated, the McCain campaign was weighing a Saturday McCain visit to Mesilla, in Dona Ana County in the south, where Joe Biden recently campaigned. They point the plane according to the polls, so the numbers there must be showing some chance of a southern surge for McCain, but he could also be working to save the congressional campaign of Ed Tinsley, who can't afford to get wiped out there. Whatever the case, NM is still a hotbed of presidential campaign activity.

And listen to this: So far, in the early voting at polling stations in big Bernalillo County, Dems have cast 8,266 votes, compared to 2,756 for the R's. That's an early sign that the Obama GOTV machine is on the move and proof of heavy early turnout. Also, 77,153 absentee ballots have been requested here, about 38,000 of them for Democrats, 28,600 for R's and about 10,000 for independents. Clearly, the Dems are on the march. That is a high rate of Dem absentees, about 50%. KUNM-FM radio reporter Jim Williams has a report on the first day of Santa Fe and Bernalillo County early voting.

The poll of polls has Obama leading McCain in NM by 8.4 percent. Such a win would represent a 70,000 vote margin over McCain based on a turnout of 72% of registered voters. Not many are expecting such a margin, with a three to five point win seeming to be the conventional wisdom. We'll keep updating.

Wertheim, an original Hillary man, now an Obama believer, feels only a violent change in the national political climate will now deny Obama in NM. But GOP VP candidate Sarah Palin's Sunday visit which drew over 10,000 in Roswell did momentarily send shivers down Democratic spines. It was the bedrock GOP base saying we are still here and voting and it brought back nightmarish memories for the Dems.

The conservative and rural south was the key to Bush's nearly 6,000 vote victory over Kerry four years ago, but Obama is not ceding territory as Kerry did. Even though there is a real chance for him to blow the doors off in Bernalillo, his insurance policy is to keep McCain from having the south rise again.

CONGRESS PREDICTION

Wertheim, whose wife Biana Ortiz Wertheim works under ABQ Mayor Chavez, has a special interest in and knowledge of the races for Congress. The Santa Fe native told us in a wide-ranging phone session surveying the entire state that this is finally the year the Democrats will break through and take the ABQ seat.

"Darren White has run a very disappointing campaign. Martin (Heinrich) has been very impressive with his fundraising and the national Democrats have done a good job managing his campaign. He has had the sense to play to the favorable climate. I think he will take it by two points or more," predicted the 40 year old attorney, not without a twinge of wistfulness for what could have been for himself those many years ago.

Based on a projected turnout of about 300,000, a two point win would give Dem Heinrich a 6,000 vote margin. It would be the Dems first ever win since the district's creation in 1968, and set off near delirious Election Night celebrating as the state's majority party finally claimed their political Holy Grail.

Dem expert Wertheim did not predict a victory for Democrat Harry Teague in the conservative southern district, but he said he thought Republican Ed Tinsley had not run an effective campaign and that now only historic trends stand between Teague and a seat in the United States Congress.

IN LARRY'S LAIR

We hadn't checked in with Wertheim since he provided analysis for our KANW 89.1 FM primary election coverage. The conversation prompted us to check in with another veteran of La Politica who we trust to have a level head in the frenzied and highly partisan final days of a major campaign. ABQ GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga confirmed the R's worry over White.

"His campaign has just not clicked and we are concerned. There is still time, but this is a race many of us did not foresee," analyzed the veteran lawmaker, who along with Wertheim will be back on KANW to provided Election Night analysis as we mark out 20th anniversary of calling elections for the public radio station.

Larranaga, a conservative, but with a reputation for bipartisanship, said he is more confident about the fate of the Republican in the most-watched NM state Senate race this cycle. Much of his House district overlaps the Senate district of two term incumbent Diane Snyder. He says there have been several effective hit pieces mailed by Snyder and R's into the district and he thinks it has halted the momentum of Democrat Tim Eichenberg.

"It's true that negative campaigning works, and it seems to be working. I think she can pull it out," opined Larranaga, a retired engineer.

Eichenberg released a poll several weeks ago showing him ahead, and those numbers were confirmed by the Republicans. But Snyder has raised over $80,000 and is fighting for her life. Still, Eichenberg has the help of top Dem operatives. State Senate leader Michael Sanchez has kicked in a $1000 to help. This is a race that won't got away.

HENRICH VS. WHITE

The ABQ congressional race moves front and center this week with two televised debates. The first will be Wednesday night at 7 on KOB-TV and the second will be at 7 p.m. Thursday on KNME-TV. Heinrich and White have rarely been seen together during their nearly year long campaigns, so the appearances are anticipated.

REGIONAL TAX

Will voters in an economic climate like this vote to raise their taxes to finance the Rail Runner commuter train from Belen to Santa Fe? Supporters are concerned. Tax foes are firing. They also not the plunge in pump prices, with gasoline now well below $3 a gallon and perhaps lessening concern over transportation. If the tax fails, the Rail Runner will have to get money from the state and/or federal coffers, both under immense pressure because of the recession.

MISTER ROGERS

We told you about ABQ GOP attorney Pat Rogers rattling the cage again last week over possible voter fraud in NM, even as he and others are under investigation by the US Justice Department for their role in the US attorney scandal here. There is way too much to go into here, but the national liberal Web site Talking Points Memo gives a rundown on Rogers and the R's and their NM vote fraud charges.

We are neutral, but isn't it incumbent on those saying there is fraudulent voting, not just fraudulent registrations, to produce the evidence? The personable Rogers and ABQ GOP State Rep. Justine Fox-Young indicated they had evidence, but now it and they look flimsy.

BAITING BARELA
Jon Barela
Speaking of the R's, the state GOP rules committee has set a meeting for today to talk about whether NM GOP Vice-Chair Jon Barela, a possible candidate to replace Allen Weh as state chairman in January, violated party rules when he competed for a position on the ABQ school board. Some rules members say Barela should step down as vice-chair because other R's applied for the school board post. They say state rules say any time a state party official is in a contested political race with a fellow R, they must step down from their party post. But Barela's supporters say seeking a school board appointment is not equivalent to a partisan political campaign.

Would Barela try to keep his new appointed position on the school board--he must seek election to the nonpartisan position in February--as well as become state chairman of the party? Seems like a stretch, but foes of the GOP faction Barela is aligned with aim to cut him off at the pass. Stay tuned.

LUJAN TV

Northern congressional candidate Ben Ray Lujan finally came with his TV buy as some Dems fret that he should have been on earlier. But Lujan raised less than $400,000 in the July quarter. He is not known as one who enjoys hitting up donors. To give his campaign a boost, we are told the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will come with TV money for the final stretch. As a Hispanic, the Obama campaign is hoping Lujan will drive more Hispanics to the polls, but he has to excite the base to do it. The TV buy should help. Lujan has to worry about a Dem primary challenge in 2010 if he doesn't come in with an impressive victory in the heavy Dem district. His challengers this year are independent Carol Miller and Republican Dan East. Neither have announced TV buys.

Lujan's first spot hits generically popular Dem issues--alternative energy, health care and ending the Iraq war. He is also back on his horse as he was in the primary in a nod to the rural nature of the district.

THE BOTTOM LINES

More Jerome Block, Jr. problems? This is a candidate who would give aspirin a headache, not to mention state Democrats who are going to have their hands full if Block wins the northern Public Regulation Commission seat...Also from the north, comes word that 92 year old Dem political legend Emilio Naranajo is hospitalized...

The video from our recent interview with the PBS NewsHour and Judy Woodruff has now been posted. The program spent a week in the state examining our politics...And here's the League of Women Voters Guide, worth checking out before heading to the polls...Our Web site address is: www.joemonahan.com. Please pass it on to those who might find it of interest.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tinsley & Teague
Ed Tinsley worked to rough up Harry Teague Sunday, hoping to save the R's from Election Night ignominy as the other two congressional seats are now leaning Dem and Obama threatens a significant New Mexico victory. Time and again Tinsley pounded his southern congressional foe, using wedge issues like gun control and abortion to try to drive Teague to the left. It was a turnaround performance for Tinsley, who had pronounced himself satisfied with his first debate performance in Las Cruces, but which was criticized by analysts who felt both Teague and Tinsley were more like planted pots than Congress candidates. Teague was also much improved over the dreary Cruces affair, but it was Tinsley who was more animated and relentless.

Sunday's one hour square-off on KOAT-TV came at 4 in the afternoon, and that was good news for Teague. For while his down-home personality (don't undrestimate it) helped him withstand some of Tinsley's more withering attacks, it is not necessarily a confrontation that the Dems want widely advertised in the sprawling conservative district. Tinsley, an attorney, restaurant chain owner and former head of the National Restaurant Association, demonstrated his bona fides in the articulation and knowledge departments. Teague landed some punches of his own, but was not as aggressive in pushing back as Tinsley who is behind in the polls and was going for the knock-out punch.

Tinsley appears to be getting outspent by Teague who is benefiting from a big Dem trend and his strength in traditionally R voting Lea County. Polling there shows Teague, a former county commissioner, tied with Tinsley. The debate was barely seen in the district's most populous county, Dona Ana, which is dominated by El Paso TV. Polling in Dona Ana shows Obama leading big and Teague taking Tinsley down.

R's have not ben overjoyed with Tinsley's campaign. By contrast, Teague, after turning over his staff, has gotten his campaign on track and running smoothly. Bush's unpopularity is not as pronounced in the south, which has kept Tinsley in the contest. Sunday Tinsley turned it up a notch, but whether it will make a difference in the final outcome is not as evident as his improved performance.

THE NORTHERN DEBATE
Lujan
Frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan turned in a more than serviceable performance during KOAT-TV's 6 p.m. Sunday debate featuring the three northern US House contenders. It should be enough to put to rest the caricature of him as young and dumb. Lujan prepared for the face-off and it showed. Independent Carol Miller and Republican Dan East also had good nights, but the onus was on the 36 year old Lujan and he rose to the occasion. Lujan, son of the NM House Speaker, has generated his fair share of jealousy from rivals who say he is where he is only because of his powerful dad. Fairly or not, more is expected from him.

Remember the brutal Dem primary where Lujan's personal life became an issue? Has any other top tier NM candidate been hit as hard as this young man? Not by a mile. If his daddy was supposed to protect him, it got lost on us. We can only hope that when he gets to the United States Congress he can throw a punch as well as he takes one. With a class of three House freshmen and a newbie Senator to boot, we're going to need it.

OVERSIGHT ANYONE?

Can NM House Speaker Ben Lujan and House Appropriations Chair Kiki Saavedra take a clear-eyed look at the University of New Mexico and exercise some oversight as the state faces a financial crisis? It may be a key question in the 60 day session of the Legislature starting in January. The state surplus has vanished and the Guv has ordered a hiring freeze and other cutbacks as the long energy bull market crashes down. But at UNM, President David Schmidly, seemingly oblivious to the changing tenor of the times, awards his son a $94,000 job that appears to be made up out of thin air. Schmidly is pushing the envelope. Schmidly's son said Sunday he will NOT take the job.

Lujan, Saavedra and Senate leaders who have been cozy with UNM this past decade can take credit for helping the university, but they may start feeling the heat as cash grows short and the afflicted start calling for equal treatment. The Legislative leadership has conducted little oversight over the millions they have sent to UNM. Schmidly is giving them reason to. Lujan, Saavedra, et al. decided to keep power in Santa Fe well into their 70's. But if they are seen playing favorites during this financial crisis, their final years may be their most uncomfortable years.

UNDER THE ROCKS

Meanwhile, the Journal reports David Harris, who served temporarily as UNM Prez and is now an executive vice president there, has been questioned by the FBI about a bond deal that was approved when he was executive director of the NM Finance Authority. The longtime state politico had no comment. The deal involves a major contributor to one of Big Bill's PAC's. It's a story that is getting a lot of attention on the chattering circuit.

Second terms is when the creepy crawly stuff starts coming out from under the rocks. Big Bill raised so much money from so many sources during his gubernatorial career that there are bound to be issues. We are seeing one of them splashed across the front pages. Is Barack reading it?

DARREN BUSH, OR NOT?

Deep in the Sunday ABQ Journal profile on ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White the Bernalillo County sheriff is asked what grade he would give President Bush. "White with some hesitancy said he would give the President "D." How about that? White, who has been loaded up with more Bush baggage than Paris Hilton on the Rivera, finally made a public comment that separated himself from the unpopular Prez. He chaired Bush's 2004 Bernalillo County campaign and Bush had a big fund-raiser for the sheriff earlier this year. The sheriff is a creature of the Mickey Barnett, Karl Rove, Pat Rogers and Pete Domenici/Steve Bell wing of the party which has held power for so long. But not much longer.

White has seemed torn by loyalty to those who created and financed him and a realization that he is going nowhere with Bush blocking his way. His hesitant and low-profile separation from the Prez may be his way of trying to have it both ways. It's hard to fault a political creature for being political, but his positioning seems more in tune with a future run for a Republican primary than it is for winning the independent ABQ congressional seat.

TV TALK

Dems in D.C. are saying that national R's have pulled more of their ad buy for White in the final week of the campaign. Earlier, they withdrew $500,000 from White and used it to protect incumbent House members who are threatened by the Dem tide. White did pick up $244,000 from a state party committee to help finance his final TV days.

MORE ABQ CD

The Journal spent little time in their profiles on the brouhaha over Heinrich's status as a "lobbyist" or "advocate" when the former city councilor did enviro work, or on his oversight in not registering his small consulting business. We haven't either, seeing the issues as a tempest in a teapot. Both Heinrich and White get high grades for integrity. Both have made minor errors along the way, but both are working class family men.

The redeeming attribute that White and Heinrich share in this moment in time is that they are not from the rarefied world of the very wealthy, when it has been the abuse of wealth that has created the economic calamity we are dealing with. We need some overseers who see things from the ground level. Both of these men do.

PEARCE VS. UDALL

Our US Senate race as seen through the eyes of NPR with our two cents worth as well. And, the Las Cruces Sun-News says, sorry, Steve. This time it's Tom. But they didn't say anything about Governor in 2010. What do you think, Steve?

The Senate hopefuls had their second TV debate Saturday night. Video posted at KRQE-TV.

PEGGY AND SARAH
Peggy Noonan
Attention young lefties and righties. It's OK to disagree with your crowd on occasion. The best do, and some of the best stuff this cycle is coming from conservative Peggy Noonan. Her latest is on Sarah Palin. Writes Noonan: "She is a person of great ambition, but the question remains: What is the purpose of the ambition? She wants to rise, but what for?"

Peggy is nailing this election with just the right tone. Kinda like Dean and Ella doing Gershwin.

Meantime, Palin set down a couple of hours late in Roswell Sunday afternoon. Here's a photo gallery of her NM visit. The NM AP's Tim Korte says there was a crowd of 10,000. Hank Williams, Jr. was also on hand to rally the GOP base. He sang the national anthem and a ditty bashing the "liberal media." Here's Korte's report. What's that? You want complete video, too? Here you go. How about Pete Domenici, back on the stump for a final time after 42 years? The Old Man can still fire them up. Hank, Jr, Pete and Sarah on a Sunday afternoon in Roswell. Oh, man. Are we having any fun yet?

JOE THE PLUMBER....

Santa Fe style with artistic gadfly Jim Terr.

HILLARY TO THE SOUTH

She's already done Espanola for the Obama campaign. Now they're sending Hillary south in search of votes. The campaign says: "On Saturday, October 25, Hillary Clinton will host a Change We Need rally in Southern New Mexico." No city selected yet, but Clinton outscored Obama in rural NM and took a narrow Feb. prez primary caucus win. Of the three congressional districts Obama is the weakest in the south. Also, don't forget that congressional seat. The better the Dems can do at the top of the ticket, the better for Dem Harry Teague to garner a historic US House win.

LET'S DRINK TO THAT

A 45 year old ABQ woman apparently could not bring herself to vote for the motley crew of politicos on the 2008 New Mexico ballot without first altering her state of consciousness. She took a bottle of vodka with her to an early ABQ voting location, cast her ballot and then passed out in front of the voting station. Back in the day, the politicos around here gathered the drunks off the bar stools and took them to the polls. They were easyy to spot. They were the only ones smiling as they waded through the ballot.

There are good reasons voters this year could use a stiff shot before exercising their civic duty. They include the federal corruption conviction of former State Senator Many Aragon; the political hiring of former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron in a fake labor job while the state cuts millions from the budget; the hiring of the son of the President of the University of New Mexico into a made-up $94,000 a year job; a candidate for the Public Regulation Commission who pays off a county clerk in charge of the voting; a senior US Senator and a veteran congresswoman being investigated by a special Justice Department prosecutor for trying to politicize the US attorney's office; the submission of over 1,400 apparently fraudulent voter registration forms to the Bernalillo County clerk's office...

Well, we could go on, but suffice it to say if the county clerks start passing out miniature vodka bottles to entice Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico to cast their ballots, you can understand if we look the other way. By the way, the drunk lady's ballot will be counted. Now, if we only a had a copy of it to help us make up our mind....Viva La Politica!

Perspective, context, analysis and a bunch of fun. This is the place to be in the final stretch of Campaign '08. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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