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Saturday, January 10, 2009

Oilman Yates Elected New Chair of NM Republican Party; C de Baca Loses Treasurer Post In Comeback Bid; Ex-US Rep Redmond Beats Him 

New Mexico Republicans Saturday turned to a wealthy oilman to help them rebuild the state's minority party after one of its most far-reaching defeats ever in 2008. Harvey Yates, Jr., whose family started Yates Petroulem in SE NM, was elected chairman for a two year term. Yates is president of Jalapeno Corp., an oil and natural gas exploration and real estate company. He succeeds Allen Weh who held the post since 2004. Yates, who lives in ABQ, garnered over 50% of the vote in a three way contest. His chief rival was Farmington Dr. Allen McCulloch. Mike Meyer of ABQ also ran.

Yates does not have a political background. He is seen hiring a strong executive director--perhaps from outside the state--to help him run the day-to-day activities of the party. The new chairman formed a political action committee and heavily supported several legislative candidates in the past election, but with little success. In a letter seeking support from the 289 Central Committee delegates deciding the race, Yates said: "We are faced with an increased liberal majority in our state Legislature whose orientation is toward increasing the power of government and diminishing the rights of individuals." But it is Yates' ability to raise money that may be his chief asset. He drew a wide range of support, including former Senator Domenici and ex-US Reps Pearce, Wilson and Lujan.

Republicans brought back an old face to become the party's new treasurer. That contest drew attention because former Bernalillo County GOP Chairman Fernando C de Baca sought the post. This, after C de Baca last year had to resign his chairmanship after a firestorm erupted when he said many Hispanics would not vote for Obama for president because he was black. Bill Redmond of Los Alamos, who won a fluke election to the northern congressional seat back in the 1990's and served one term in the US House, was drafted to oppose C de Baca and was elected. Results of the vote were not made public.

Republicans meeting at the Hotel ABQ near Old Town Saturday also chose Nina Martinez as party vice chair and Rod Montoya as second vice chair. Robert Perea was selected as party secretary.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Friday, January 09, 2009

Chavez Camp Touts First Poll Of Mayoral Contest, Plus: Layoffs Hit ABQ Journal, And: The Crazy Week That Was, Warts And All 

Chavez
The camp of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez is celebrating a year-end poll that they say puts the mayor in a commanding position to win his third term in a row and his fourth overall. The survey was conducted by Lake Research Partners and, if it's right, there apparently isn't much "Marty fatigue" out there. Let's go right to the money paragraph from the Lake polling memo circulating among top political operatives:

Voters continue to hold Chavez in high regard. Two-thirds (66%) say they have a favorable impression of the man, including 28% who have a very favorable impression of him. Only 27% have an unfavorable opinion of Chavez.

That is about as high of an approval rating we have seen for Chavez in recent years. It shows him better positioned than an automatic phone survey your blog commissioned back in October. That survey put the mayor's job approval rating at 45%. However, the poll was of voters in Bernalillo County. The Lake survey was taken among 400 likely voters within the city limits where the mayoral derby will be decided. The margin of error is put at 4.9% and was conducted Dec. 20-22. We do not have the wording of the questions.

There may be some debate on Chavez's job approval rating, but the Lake Survey also asked city voters whether the city is headed in the right or wrong direction. Those results mimic what you hear around town in casual conversation:

Nearly two-thirds (64%) say the city is headed in the right direction, with fewer than one-quarter (23%) saying things are off on the wrong track. Thirteen percent are unsure.

If voters don't think the city is headed down the wrong path, what reason will they have for tossing Chavez from his 11th Floor office at Government Center when they go to the polls this October? Well, that's the question that will have to be answered by Marty's foes. So far, former State Senator Richard Romero and City Councilors Michael Cadigan and Debbie O'Malley have announced they will challenge Chavez. All are Democrats.

We did not receive polling that pitted Chavez up against his foes, but an insider says some was done and all the potential challengers scored "in the single digits." The bad news for the challengers is they have a long way to go; the good news is that they have a long time to get there.

JOURNAL LAYOFFS

No one will be surprised to hear that the recession is now hitting the newsroom of the ABQ Journal, the state's largest newspaper, but what is worrisome is that the layoffs of seven newsroom staffers may be only the beginning of the job losses. KRQE-TV's Maria Medina informs us that four of the seven newsroom employees laid off are news reporters.The Journal joins papers across the country feeling the severe pain of an advertising crash and a loss of subscribers to the "dead tree" edition of the paper in favor of the Internet offering. They can sell ads on ABQJournal.com, but they can't charge as much and therein lies the dilemma facing the entire newspaper industry.

"The people affected are good journalists who have made valuable contributions to the Journal," said publisher Tom Lang of the family owned enterprise. And, we might add, to the city and state.

We don't yet have the names of the reporters who are out. Gene Grant, a Monday columnist for the paper, informed his readers recently that his column has been canceled. And it's not just the Journal hurting. KOB-TV laid off about 10 employees late last year. Insiders say the contract of reporter Shelton Dodson recently expired and it will not be renewed and he will not be replaced. The Santa Fe New Mexican has laid off a couple of dozen employees (But only one news reporter). The non-profit online news outlet--The NM Independent---cut four part-time workers only months after undertaking their venture.

REPORTING THE JOURNAL

The downsizing of New Mexico's only statewide newspaper doesn't include only reporters. Staff reductions have been announced in circulation, advertising, production and other departments. Also, the Journal confirmed what we have been getting in our e-mail: Distribution of the paper has been reduced in eastern and southwestern section of the state and the Rio Rancho and West Side Journal editions now go to Thursdays and Saturdays only. Also, the Thursday Business Outlook has been canceled. The Monday Outlook remains.

The Journal's local news hole has been shrinking in recent months as it cut back on printing costs and editorial employees. But the investigative wing of the paper--a long tradition--has been strong during the recent Big Bill pay to play story. Some will argue that many of the minor crime beat stories and other daily minutia are not critical to the function of the paper. But with last year's death of the ABQ Tribune, original local news coverage is taking a hit.

Journal Monday through Friday circulation for the period ending 9-30-2008 is 102,266, up a bit from Sept. 30, 2007 when it was 101,981. Journal Sunday circulation is at 134,110, down a lot from Sept. 30, 2007 when it was 140,395. Saturday circulation is 109,646, up a bit from Sept. 30, 2007 when it was 108,658.

Layoffs in the national press and big city newspapers are of concern to us but not as much as the local losses because there is so much redundancy at the national level. Original statewide coverage of New Mexico news is essentially limited to the Journal, a smallish AP presence and three television stations. And don't blame the blogs. The Journal news stories on the Web are being read by more people than ever, they just can't turn a big profit on those readers.

THE JOURNAL AND ME
Me
We didn't mean to diss the Journal on the day they delivered their personal bad news, but it turns out we did--inadvertently. One of our "Alligators" e-mailed in a cool photo of Big Bill and his chief of staff in a candid pose at a UNM basketball game and left the impression that he had taken the pic. We were quick to boast about it, and were so taken with the snap that we announced a "photo caption contest" with the winner getting free lunch. Well, we were too quick to boast. The pic--unknown to us when we posted it-- was actually lifted from the Journal's Web site. It is the fine work of Journal photographer Maria Brose. The Journal is being good-natured and permitted continued use of the photo so we can complete our contest which will end Monday. So take a look below and e-mail in your caption. We think you're going to have fun reading the submissions.

Adding to the weirdness of the mishap was our receipt of our advertising bill from the Journal for the ad our blog ran in their recent special section noting the retirement of Senator Pete Domenici. No, we were not trying to stretch our ad dollars by lifting their photo!

JUST PLAIN CRAZY, FOLKS

It's just been a crazy week around here. It started Sunday morning with Big Bill withdrawing his name for the commerce secretary post and has just gotten more intense with that political news and then all the other exclusive stuff we bombarded you with. So it's no surprise that among the thousands of words we churned out, we let a mistake go by. But this wasn't a little error and the resulting e-mails from the legal beagles had us red-faced, but being Irish we are always red-faced so it wasn't so bad.

But on to the correction. We said federal grand juries operate under secrecy and that we should not be surprised that Big Bill was not saying much about the investigation. We were only partially right as explained by this e-mailer familiar with the matter:

Civilian witnesses before the grand jury (non FBI) are not sworn to secrecy. They can talk or not talk to the media if they want....Very little actually gets done in front of the grand jury, the real action is in the conference rooms at the FBI and U.S. Attorney's offices. Only the prosecutors, federal agents, the grand jurors and court clerks and court reporters are sworn to secrecy.

So when Bloomberg news reported they talked to someone who appeared before the grand jury, it was not unusual and not a violation of secrecy. Thanks to those who straightened us out on this one.

SCANDAL FATIGUE YET?
Terell Prowling
So asks Steve Terrell. You read our mind, Steve. The New Mexican reporter tells of the news of a state grand jury probe into a regional housing authority. The news broke Thursday night. Terrell blogged it at the new address for his political blog which you will want to bookmark in time for the upcoming legislative session. (Reporter Kate Nash has a blog too, found at the New Mexican site.) Terrell's music blog remains here. One more: An old friend, noted science author and former New York Times reporter George Johnson, continues to blog about Santa Fe in a most interesting way. If we could remember half of what this guy has forgotten.....

THE BOTTOM LINES

It's Marci Youngmark, a small business owner, who is considering a bid for the City Council seat of Michael Cadigan. We mangled her name in the early editions of the Thursday blog....And a note for Congressman Martin Heinrich: The honeymoon is over--already. The new ABQ US Rep., sworn in Tuesday, issued a news release Wednesday under the headline:

Heinrich cosponsors fair pay legislation on 1st day as member of Congress


And then came the e-mail in reaction:

Joe, This bill allows trial lawyers to file retroactive claims years after the fact. So, Martin's first act was not to end the war, support the labs or Kirtland or to kill Bush's evil tax cuts for the rich. No, it was to pay back the trial lawyers for all their support. Welcome to day one of the 112th Congress. Please don't use my name.

Gee, Martin has barely had time to find a parking space. We almost feel sorry for him, but we can't--that would have the Alligators snapping at us. Good Luck, Congressman. And welcome to La Politica....

E-mail your news and comments, anonymously if you wish.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Fernando's Comeback? He Runs For GOP Post, Plus: Bill's World: Fishing Expedition Or Not? And: Win A Free Lunch In The Blog Photo Caption Contest 

C de Baca
Can Fernando C de Baca be a "Comeback Kid?" He's going to try Saturday when he's nominated to become the next treasurer of the NM Republican Party. C de Baca was one of the casualties of Campaign '08 when he uttered:

“The truth is that Hispanics came here as conquerors. African-Americans came here as slaves...Hispanics consider themselves above blacks. They won’t vote for a black president.”

That quote was flashed around the globe as the nation prepared to elect its first black president and it cost the longtime politico his position as Bernalillo County GOP Chairman. But Saturday, when Republicans gather to elect new officers, C de Baca will make a play to become the party's new treasurer. Fernando's friends say he is considering having a black minister place his name in nomination. The seventy-something C de Baca suffered foot-in-mouth-disease when he made his off-color comments. Maybe he gets a stab at a fresh start Saturday, but not without sparks flying. The aftertaste from that sour quote is going to last a while. No other candidates for treasurer have surfaced , but negative e-mails about Fernando have started to fly. Opposition could surface in the form of a floor nomination.

STILL RUNNING

We aren't seeing Farmington's Allen McCulloch throwing in the towel in his bid to become the new GOP chairman Saturday, even though oilman Harvey Yates has lined up the support of ex-Senator Domenici and former US Reps Wilson, Pearce and Lujan. In fact, there is some negative campaigning going on against Yates. If Allen stays in, the Saturday meeting at the Hotel ABQ next to Old Town could get intense.

BILL'S WORLD: FISHING EXPEDITION?

Well, of course the Governor's inner circle is being quizzed by federal prosecutors. Duh. They are going after The Whale--Big Bill. But how are they going to harpoon this elusive catch? Bloomberg news reports that a person who testified before the federal grand jury investigating the CDR bond deal said prosecutors are asking if Dave Contarino, Bill's former chief of staff, told a state agency to hire CDR which donated $100,000 to Richardson's political committees.

Did Contarino or another Big Bill aide line up the contract for CDR after getting an explicit promise of campaign money and did Big Bill sanction the hold-up? Another top Richardson aide--senior political adviser Michael Stratton--worked for CDR as a consultant and reportedly lobbied the New Mexico Finance Authority to give the contract to the firm, sources told both Bloomberg News and Barry Massey of The Associated Press.

But do we have a fishing expedition here or the real deal? Pay to play cases are usually decided with wiretaps and paper trails. That's what happened when the Feds prosecuted the Metro Courthouse corruption case that snared Dem politico Manny Aragon as well as the corruption case against State Treasurer Vigil who was caught on tape.

Questions for this one: Were the feds wiretapping someone back in 2004 when the bond deal was being made? That seems unlikely. Did they suit someone up with a wiretap months or years after the fact and get a Big Bill aide to record the Governor admitting he was in on the deal? That seems far out. Did one of the Governor's aides outline the pay to play deal to CDR in an e-mail? That sounds pretty stupid. If someone came forward recently and testified that he took part in a pay to play scheme with the Guv, is there any hard evidence to back that up?

Yes, the Governor is a big legal target, but not an easy one to hit. Politically, the harpooners had an easier time as the Guv withdrew his nomination to be the president's commerce secretary because of the grand jury probe.

No one is going to underestimate the investigative prowess of the feds. They have two big notches under their belt here, but it's important to point out amid the frenzy that an indictment only requires probable cause that a crime was committed; a conviction requires evidence beyond a reasonable doubt. The old saw about a prosecutor being able to indict a ham sandwich is still true.

The Guv briefly defended himself again Wednesday: "In my view, the state and its officials have done nothing wrong. They behaved with the best of intentions and the best conduct."

THE PR ANGLE

This bigger than life politician can't be underestimated, either. There he was on statewide television last night, cracking a self-deprecating joke about the probe and in another segment offering sincere and high praise for former aide Contarino. The Guv is taking to heart advice that he not hide from the cameras and that he turn on his Old Warrior charm. It may not influence the grand jury, but it helps with the people of New Mexico who have bonded with him. If the worst case scenario unfolds and indictments come down, it will be the people of this state who will decide whether to stay by the Governor's side or tell him his governorship must end early.

CAPTION OUR EXCLUSIVE PHOTO--WIN A FREE LUNCH

Well, the governor may have been Mr. Public Wednesday, but the night before it looked as if he was Mr. Incognito. Here he is in this very cool ABQ Journal Maria Brose photo from one of the Alligators taken at the UNM-UTEP game at ABQ's Pit Tuesday night. We believe that's Chief of Staff Brian Condit whispering in his ear. What's he saying there?

It's definitely time for a blog caption contest with a free lunch to the winner and their guest. E-mail in your captions and let's have some fun.

VOX POPULI


We'd like to see a poll on how this deal is impacting New Mexico public opinion. Believe it or not, it may not be as compelling as insiders and media types think. The electorate is so bombarded with alleged political wrongdoing, they seem to glaze over and dismiss much of it until it is proven very serious--such as the indictment stage. At least that's what NM pollster Brian Sanderoff has told us over the years and we've seen his take borne out in a variety of political campaigns and in the lackadaisical attitude toward campaign reform in D.C. and Santa Fe.

Richardson won re-election in 2006 by the biggest margin in state history. His popularity has ranged from around 50% to the 62%, according to polls from last year. The 62% was among likely voters who most closely follow the news.

THE IMPACT
If there was a crime committed it needs to be prosecuted, but that doesn't mean it isn't worrisome to have this issue hanging over the state. our reputation is getting a daily black eye nationally. And It sure isn't helping economic development. We can only hope that we get resolution--one way or the other--and soon.

BLAGO AND BILL

One of the Gators sent this one in--Illinois Governor Blago gave $20,000 to Big Bill's political coffers in Nov. of '06. It's Blago's pay to play over the Illinois US Senate seat that has turned the attention up on Bill's problems. Please, let this be the only Bill-Blago connection.

NAMES IN THE NEWS

We asked for and we received possible names to take Michael Cadigan's ABQ West Side city council seat now that he is giving it up to run for mayor. Three possibles emerged from the Alligators, including Robert Aragon, a former state legislator and ex-brother-in-law to Mayor Marty Chavez. The two once practiced law together. Lance Milford is another name making the rounds. His family is well-known for advocating for tough DWI laws. And Robert Doucette, the assistant to Republican Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Brasher, is another possible contender. Ok, now a fourth one comes in as I wrap up the blog--Marci Youngmark. In October city voters will choose a mayor and councilors in five of the nine city council districts.

E-mail your news and comments, and don't forget to enter our caption contest for your chance at a free lunch.

Voted Best Blog by readers of ABQ The Magazine, This is the Home of New Mexico Politics

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

They're New, Blue And Sworn In; Can New Reps Deliver? Plus: Questions On Moriarty Racino, And: Mayor Race: Cadigan Is All In; Radio Talker Ready, Too 

Senator Tom Udall (D-NM)
They're all new and all blue, but can New Mexico's four new members of Congress deliver? Well, one thing about Democrats--they like government. And, like it or not, the era of big government is back. The Dems also happen to be in the majority in Congress and since all five of our delegation members are Dem, NM should be able to get a decent seat at most political tables. (The AP has the story on the swearing-in of our new members. KOAT-TV's Shelly Ribando has video and a wrap of the delegation's oath-taking.)

As for our new members, Senator Tom Udall, shown being sworn in by VP Cheney with wife Jill at his side, has excelled at making friends in politics. This aspect of his personality should serve him (and us) well in the Senate where personal relationships are critical to success. What we don't know yet is whether he will be forceful enough when the time comes to stand up to his colleagues on behalf of the state. In other words, can he deliver a sharp elbow with a smile?

ABQ Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich has shown skill at forging compromise and bringing people together. Politics needs more of that. He also seems not to hold grudges which should make his work easier. He also has a streak of cautiousness. How long will it take him to get up to speed and earn the respect of his colleagues which will benefit this state?

Congressman Ben Ray Lujan has politics in his DNA. He wants to be where the action is, not just warm a chair. We think he will be results oriented. However, a man in hurry can sometimes step on the toes of others. Will Lujan know when to hold them and when to fold them?

Congressman Harry Teague brings maturity, the personality of an avuncular uncle and the shrewdness of a fox to his new office. He has a track record of success in the private and public sectors. He has the makings of a deal maker for New Mexico. But this is a new level of play for Teague. Can he read the D.C. cards as well as he reads those in Lea County? (We had Teague assigned to the House Financial Services Committee for a few hours yesterday. He has not been assigned to that committee, but is on House transportation. Committees that Senator Udall will serve on have yet to be finalized.)

Presiding over the delegation is our new senior Senator, Jeff Bingaman. After a quarter century in the Congress, he has won respect locally and nationally. But the state is now asking a lot from him--perhaps too much--as it puts on the field its greenest congressional team ever. Being leader of the pack is coming late in Jeff's career, but it could reinvigorate the lawmaker. When you know you are taking some of your last shots, you make them your best.

COMMITTEE JOCKEYING
Rep. Heinrich
We share a bit of the concern of our friend and University of New Mexico poly sci professor Lonna Atkeson that none of our three House members has been named to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, but Heinrich on House Armed Services means he will have a say in the bill that sets the spending levels for Sandia Labs' defense work, Los Alamos Labs and military outposts around the state. And Lujan on Homeland Security is relevant to NM. He had hoped for energy, but the House leadership isn't going to put a newbie on energy. Why? Well, one rather course reason is that members of that committee are showered with campaign money by energy and business interests. A committee slot is a real plum.

Gosh, we remember back in the old days when then-Congressman Bill Richardson scored a seat on energy and the dough rolled in even though he rarely had a serious re-elect challenge. They didn't call it pay to play either. Back to today, Senator Bingaman is chairman of Senate energy and with or without a NM House member on that chamber's energy committee, it will ultimately fall to him, as it did Senator Domenici before him, to safeguard the state's billions in national security funding. But hey, no pressure, Jeff.

BIG BILL UPDATE

Bloomberg News hit with a piece today bringing former big Bill Chief of Staff Dave Contarino into the pay for play scandal: 

"Federal prosecutors are asking if New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson’s former chief of staff told a state agency to hire a bond adviser that donated $100,000 to Richardson’s political committees, people familiar with the matter said.

Also KRQE-TV came with a report saying they have confirmed testimony has been taken from Carlos Romero, a former official at the NM Finance Authority who now works at the University of New Mexico. Former NM Finance Authority Director David Harris is also at the center of this story, having been interviewed by the FBI, according to the ABQ Journal. Like Romero, Harris is now at UNM where he serves as executive vice-president. Wonder what they talk about during their coffee breaks? Grand jury proceedings are by law secret and folks are not supposed to be leaking who has testified, but that doesn't stop them when the stakes are high.

QUESTIONS ON NEW RACINO

Word is circulating that there may be unexpected financing problems with the planned Moriarty racino. Paul Blanchard, president of the Downs of ABQ at the state fairgrounds, won approval to move the fairgrounds racino to Moriarty. He needs to purchase land for the new track/casino from the King family. Blanchard has a purchase option on 500 acres of King Ranch land north of Interstate 40 and east of N.M. 41 in Moriarty. Insiders wonder whether the land has yet been purchased for the racino. Racing and slot machine gambling (715 slots) has been billed to start by the spring of 2010. Are there issues lining up the financing? There is certainly a lot of buzz about that. The development would include a hotel and trucking facility. Total development costs have been pegged at $65 million. What happens if the financing hits a speed bump? Does the racino stay at the fairgrounds?

Also, the town of Moriarty is asking the Legislature for $4.5 million in capital outlay money to help cover the costs of the facility. Total capital outlay funds available for the next fiscal year are about $157 million, according to the latest state figures. That is more than some expected but still not anywhere near what lawmakers have had in recent sessions. Also, Blanchard is a major friend and campaign donor to Big Bill. In light of Bill withdrawing his commerce secretary nomination because of the federal grand jury probe of "pay to play" in the state, will questions along those lines arise about the $4.5 million in capital outlay? That may be seen as a stretch by some, but we're in a new era where money is tight. Everything is on the table and some political connections aren't what they used to be.

CAMPAIGN '09--WE'RE ON IT
Michael Cadigan
City Councilor Michael Cadigan makes his mayoral bid official. He will leave his West Side council seat to make the run. (Hey, who is running for that? E-mail us if we have early contenders.) Michael is 41 and is so far our youngest contender. He is a lawyer, bright, an excellent debater and with a hot streak that sometimes gets him in hot water. He is a former Marine, so he is prepared for battle. He has been mostly identified with the city' progressive politics--growth issues, anti-smoking etc.-- but of late has been taking on issues that appeal to a wider audience, namely crime. He will need to build name ID with limited money to compete with frontrunner Mayor Chavez. Councilor Debbie O'Malley broke news of her forthcoming candidacy on your blog Tuesday and will make it official later this week. Former State Senator Richard Romero is in knee deep. Mayor Marty is soon to follow. KOB's Stuart Dyson has the video from Tuesday's action.

ONE TIGHT LAW

Reader Alan Schwartz provides important info on the restrictive new city law that has sent all the candidates to public financing:

Joe, The ban isn't limited to City contractors, it's basically all business contributors. Here is the language:

No candidate shall accept a contribution in support of the candidate's campaign from any corporation, limited liability company, firm, partnership, joint stock company or similar business entity or any agent making a contribution on behalf of such a business entity. No candidate shall accept a contribution in support of the candidate's campaign from any person, other than a City employee, who at the time of the contribution is in a contractual relationship with the City to provide goods or services to the City.


Alan adds: The question is whether business contributors will form Committees and promote candidates independent of the candidate campaigns.

So how much money will really be spent? Will independent business groups indeed form for candidates? And what about environmental groups? They have in the past so expect them to again. We would also look for labor unions to come in.

Romero campaign consultant Neri Holguin says the new campaign law states that third party spending for a candidate will trigger matching funds for the other candidates and that we did not mention that when blogging about Romero possibly getting support from nonprofits. We will double-check Neri's info with the city clerk to make sure. But we wonder if some third party committees will try to disguise their efforts as "advocacy" to avoid the matching funds provision. After all, that is the heart of the dispute involving NM nonprofit groups and the attorney general who says their issue advocacy in '08 legislative races was actually politicking for candidates. That dispute is in federal court.

In politics, money has a way of getting in through the side door, no matter how airtight they try to make that door.

MEDIA WATCH
Jim Villanucci
So far all mayoral candidates have agreed to take public financing. They will be limited to $328,000 from the city treasury. Unless a rich candidate comes in and rejects public financing, or we are overwhelmed with third party spending, this means the free media will have a larger role in this race than 2005.

KKOB-AM radio's Jim Villanucci, the dean of NM talk show hosts, was already promoting the scramble for the city's top job Tuesday. Callers filled his phone lines to get in on the action. Villanucci, who leans conservative, told his audience he has voted for Chavez twice, but did not say if he will do so again. He said he believes Chavez is positioned for the win in the absence of a strong conservative, but he would like to see one in the race. The radio talker has clashed with the mayor over the controversial red light cameras and the administration had a hard time containing the PR damage.

Indications are that the ABQ Journal will again endorse Chavez for mayor. The online news outlet that employs progressive bloggers--The NM Independent--will be fertile ground for Romero. Sadly, the ABQ Tribune which for so many years led the pack in city politics coverage is no more.

E-mail your news and comments, anonymous or signed.


(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Impending Liberal Split Seen Helping Chavez Re-elect; Debbie O'Malley Ready To Play, Plus: Updates On Bill And Di, Also: Yates Seen Taking GOP Chair 

Romero & O'Malley
An impending split in the ranks of ABQ liberals could bolster the re-election chances of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. City Councilor Debbie O'Malley checks in with the blog to announce that she is getting ready to hire staff and launch a mayoral bid, threatening to split ABQ's liberal voters with former State Senator Richard Romero who has formed an exploratory committee and is lining up support from progressive interest groups. And while West Side Councilor Michael Cadigan will announce his mayoral bid today with a tilt toward moderate and conservative voters, that Democrat is also seen attracting liberal votes. If no major Republican gets in the race, Chavez could claim the lion's share of conservatives and moderates, making it that much easier for him to attract 40% of the vote and avoid a run-off election.

O'Malley told me she wants to be listed as a "serious" candidate for the October election along with Cadigan, Chavez and Romero. When I asked her if she and Romero would not kill each other off by splitting the liberals, she said "things could change," indicating she thought only one of them would be around for the duration. She added: "I will have a strong group of supporters."

Romero, 64, is working to get Obama backers to his candidacy. He is expected to get third-party financial support from nonprofit groups that have been active in area politics and drawn controversy because they don't fully disclose who donates to them. The NM attorney general is challenging them.

Rather than try to convert Chavez voters, friends of Romero say he will attempt to attract new voters to the polls, a difficult task for a low-turnout city election. But O'Malley, a popular North Valley politico, will make Romero's task of consolidating the progressive vote difficult. Will one of them blink before the campaign begins in earnest? Stay tuned.

MORE NEW MAYOR STUFF

Chavez
Meantime, beleaguered R's, hammered at the polls in November, have few players to turn to for the mayoral battle. City Councilor Brand Winter carried their banner four years ago, but was trounced. Does he have the heart for another battle? Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, beaten handily by Dem Martin Heinrich for the ABQ congressional seat, is saying he is a no-go for the mayoral derby.

I ran into Mayor Chavez at my local Starbucks Monday afternoon. He was meeting with one of his consultants and indicated all systems are go for his effort to secure another four years. He chuckled over reports circulating that he could be the next Commerce Secretary to replace Big Bill. He was not an original Obama backer.

Chavez and the rest of the mayoral field will rely on the new public financing system. A new city law basically makes it impossible to not to go that route. It says a candidate for city office can take no contributions from anyone who does business with the city. Candidates who qualify will each receive about $325,000.

If liberals can't settle on one standard bearer and no major GOP contender emerges in the next month or so, Mayor Chavez could find the path to a fourth four year term may be strewn with pebbles, but no boulders.

BILL'S DAY

Supporters of Big Bill were relieved not to see him in a subdued and affable mood at his first news conference since announcing Sunday he is withdrawing his nomination to become Obama's Commerce Secretary. (Raw video here.)He read a statement essentially repeating the written statement he sent out Sunday that emphasized his belief that there was no wrongdoing in the awarding of a state contract that is the subject of a federal grand jury. That investigation prompted Bill to get out--some say he was pushed--and return to his Governor duties. He told reporters he "was hurting" over the weekend. He adopted a more conciliatory tone than the one he had at a mid-December news conference where reporters shouted out questions at him about the FBI investigation.

Meantime, the AP confirmed our December 17 blog report about Bill hiring high-powered ABQ defense attorney Peter Schoenburg to represent him in the case. Richardson is not known to be a target of the grand jury.

The Washington Post takes us behind the scenes to the dueling staff messages on whether Richardson was forthcoming enough about the grand jury probe while being vetted. This kind of infighting is going to do nothing to get the Guv back on the national stage.

And Bill is absolutely manhandled in the liberal Huffington Post--another downside of national politics--they kick when you are down.

Here's a five minute interview we did with KRQE-TV and anchor Kim Vallez on the latest with Big Bill.

The Guv now awaits what we all await--the report of the grand jury and any indictments. Until then, the Big Guy appears more vulnerable and weaker than usual. Putting on a smile amid that new atmosphere was not a bad idea.

THE "TRANSITION"

Lt. Governor Denish plans to keep her transition advisory teams intact until they give reports later this month. Those involved are citizen volunteers, but there are two highly paid transition staffers. Both of them have solid reputations, but several e-mailers point out that Denish only recently questioned the fat salaries of the hundreds of "exempt" employees on the state payroll. What happens to Chris Cervini, her communications transition director and Kathy Keith, her transition chief of staff? Both are drawing salaries of over $90,000. Cervini gave up his job at Lovelace Health to join Denish for what he thought would be a full time gig. Will Cervini and Keith join the ranks of state exempt employees, even though they were hired for a transition that no longer exists? We'll watch for an answer.

YES TO YATES

Oilman Harvey Yates has secured the support of former US Senator Pete Domenici, former US Reps Steve Pearce, Heather Wilson and Manuel Lujan and will likely secure enough votes at Saturday's ABQ meeting of the NM GOP Central Committee to win a two year term as the party's new chairman. That's from party insiders who admit that putting an oilman at the top of the party hierarchy may prove controversial, but it could also put the down and out minority party on steady financial footing. Getting Pearce and Wilson to agree on something might also be a good omen. Farmington's Allen McCulloch has also been campaigning for the post and making a positive impression by floating some new approaches for the party. But it may be Yates' promise to bring in the cash that will make the difference in this one.

The Yates family has major oil interests in SE NM and has been a target of enviros for its plans to drill on Otero Mesa in the south. Harvey Yates has a home in and lives in ABQ. He took part in the '08 election by financially backing a group of GOP legislative candidates, but had little success. Like the current chairman, Allen Weh, he is not experienced in politics. Party analysts suggest he will look to hire a strong executive director to manage the nitty gritty details while he concentrates on raising cash and recruiting candidates.

The GOP in '08 suffered one of its worst defeats in state history. Its losses in 2006 were nearly as devastating. (Sorry, Chairman Weh, but this is a no-spin zone.) Reformers are calling for new faces, but they are apparently in short supply. Yates, who is so low-key there are no photos of him posted anywhere on the Web, is already taking heat for hiring Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair as a consultant for the legislative candidates he backed. The reformers worry that Yates will continue to rely on Adair and others who have steered the party organization the past four years. They say if he does, the GOP will wander in the wilderness even longer than it is now destined to.

If Yates is to be successful as chairman he will have to reach out and find candidates that not only that agree with his conservative views, but match the moderate and varied make-up of the New Mexico electorate. Unlike Weh, Yates' supporters say he is not in denial about the disaster that has befallen the party locally and nationally. The promise of his leadership is that he will surround himself with fresh faces and welcome new ideas. Whether that promise is fulfilled is the question that hangs in the air.

ON THE HILL

You don't think of new ABQ Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich as the military type but he says he has been named to the House Armed Services Committee. At first glance, it may seem out of character, but this is a good appointment for the metro economy:

“I know that Kirtland Air Force Base and Sandia Laboratories are of the utmost importance to our District, and this was key in my mind when seeking my committee assignments. I am proud to serve on the Armed Services Committee and I look forward to the work ahead."

Serving on armed services could boost Heinrich's standing with more conservative voters who have yet to warm to the new Dem lawmaker.

Rep. Harry Teague has been named to the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a panel that is set to see a lot of action under Obama's stimulus plan. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan was named to the Homeland Security Committee.

The new Congress is sworn in today, including our three new congressmen--Martin, Harry Teague and Ben Ray Lujan. Tom Udall takes the oath as our new US Senator. We wish them all well and hope they have a healthy competition to outdo each other in protecting New Mexico's interests.

THE BOTTOM LINE

From a reader: "Bill Richardson, the hostage negotiator, now has himself for a client."

E-mail your news and comments, anonymously if you wish.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, January 05, 2009

BIG BILL BOMBSHELL SENDS POLITCAL SHRAPNEL FLYING; A COMEBACK OR MORE TROUBLE? DENISH'S DATE WITH DESTINY DASHED; LEGISLATIVE SESSION LOOMS LARGER 

A placid New Mexico Sunday morning was both electrified and shaken as the state's dominant political figure delivered the most stunning news of his lengthy and eventful political career: Governor Bill Richardson was withdrawing his nomination to be President-elect Obama's Secretary of Commerce. As dusk fell the shaking had finally stopped and everyone settled in for the aftershocks. Some of them may be as powerful as the initial bombshell Bill set off and that sent political shrapnel flying far and wide. We got a bad vibe when Richardson refused to answer questions about a federal grand jury "pay to play" probe at a mid-December news conference following the release of this Bloomberg news story. We wondered whether it was the beginning of a media feeding frenzy that would take Richardson out. Frenzy or not, he is indeed out. New Mexico will not be represented in the cabinet of President Obama. That hurts because a cabinet seat could have made up for some of the influence we are losing in Washington with the departure of four incumbent lawmakers. Your blog goes long and deep on the big story, and it all starts now.

WHAT CHANGED?

When Obama nominated Bill in early December, the president-elect knew there was a federal grand jury probe involving the Richardson administration. What happened since to make that investigation turn politically deadly? Top political and legal sources suggest that someone may have "rolled" before the grand jury; that they admitted there was a pay to play scheme and that they were involved. If so, federal indictments in the case are much more probable. The new president doesn't need any of those floating around. Also, the recent notorious pay to play deal involving the Illinois Governor made the NM situation that much hotter. But maybe nothing changed. Just the level of scrutiny as the nomination hearings approached. That was Richardson's take and why he said he withdrew.

CNN says Obama's aides engineered Richardson's withdrawal, fearful of an ethics blowup. They say Richardson was "stunned." ABC News reported that Obama's aides claim Richardson was not "forthcoming" about the investigation. NBC's Andrea Mitchell, who broke the story, reports there was "heavy pressure" placed on Richardson by the Obama team to abandon his nomination.

"He was pushed. They missed all the cues early on. They thought it (the investigation) was less important than it's turning out to be, or that it would get wrapped up more quickly...They realized they had a problem and in the last week there was heavy pressure on Richardson to withdraw," reports Andrea.

Richardson's staff insists it was the governor who initiated the withdrawal.

Why the Obama transition team did not pick up on the problems earlier is a good question. They were quick to cover their own butts when Bill was deep-sixed, but there was some obvious ball-dropping going on with the vetting process.

The withdrawal timing was done to minimize damage, coming as it did on Sunday morning. It will be a one or two day story in the national media and be gone. For that, Obama will be thankful. For Richardson it will mean less damage to his reputation than dragged out and high-profile confirmation hearings would inflict. (Obama and Richardson statements here.)

INDICTMENTS OR NOT?

Most observers we spoke with expect the grand jury to report in the next month or two. In his statement withdrawing his nomination, Bill indicated the air would take weeks or "even months" to clear. The Governor's political career appears to be riding on the outcome. Just a threat of trouble has cost him a cabinet position. In the extreme, an indictment would cost him his governorship and more. An indictment of officials close to him would obviously be less serious, but it would likely close the door to any meaningful comeback with Obama. However, while Richardson has retained a lawyer, no one is saying he is a target of the investigation.

Richardson, 61, said the investigation will end with his administration being cleared. He indicated he saw the setback to his political hopes as temporary: "So, for now, I will remain in the job I love..." But as the day wore on, seasoned political operatives were not so confident that there will be another big D.C. job awaiting Bill. Some scoffed at the reaction of Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish who must have been reeling when Bill told her of his plans early Sunday. She said Richardson "postponed taking a position in the administration to ensure that President Obama and the American people face no delays in getting to work to fix our ailing economy..."

But if Di, who already had one foot in the Governor's Mansion, was engaging in some wishful thinking, she could hardly be blamed. The collapse of Richardson's nomination was not only the worst day of his political career, but hers as well. Still, if the rosiest of scenarios comes to fruition--no indictments of anyone---Big Bill could lay claim to the title held by former President Clinton-"The Comeback Kid"--and Di could still lay claim to Bill's title: Governor of the state of New Mexico.

DI'S DESTINY

Talk about a punch to the solar plexus. The 59 year old Denish surely has had political disappointments before, but nothing like this. The limb has been sawed off from under her and spilling to the ground are her immediate hopes and dreams of becoming the first woman governor in state history. She named dozens of citizens to a transition team as well as two handsomely paid aides--chief of staff Kathy Keith and communications director Chris Cervini. We hope they did not give up their day jobs because transitions just became obsolete in the Land of Enchantment. Still, Keith sent out an e-mail to volunteers Sunday night saying the transition will continue. But why? And at what cost? And who pays? What are we transitioning to? Well, maybe it's hard to let go.

An associate of the Light Guv, usually loquacious, struggled to define the emotions he felt, but he maintained that Diane's political identity is separated enough from Bill's to spare her any collateral damage.

Still, the earth has moved under Di's feet. If Richardson does not get out of town by the end of his term, will that mean there will be more 2010 Dem primary challengers for her? After all, there's nothing like the incumbency to scare off rivals. And since this is an ethics issue, will Denish be pushed more into the progressive camp when she presides over the state Senate in the upcoming legislative session? If she feels a growing threat of a primary challenge from the left based on campaign reform and ethics, she just might.

Denish remains the frontrunner for the 2010 Dem nod. She has about $1.7 million in cash and higher name ID than most potential challengers, but the hill just became steeper. Potential Dem hopefuls, even long-shot ones like actor Val Kilmer, are feeling a winter breeze at their backs.

CASEY DENISH?


And will, the Light Guv, as one Alligator mused, now "pull a Casey Luna?" That's a reference to Lt. Guv. Luna who served under Gov. Bruce King in the 90's and broke with Bruce and challenged the boss in a primary election. Denish's instincts may soon tell her she too will have to start drifting away from her boss to show the public that she is her own woman. That could make an already tense relationship between her and Big Bill even more nerve wracking. Casey Denish? Hmm.....

And what of those forlorn R's? Suddenly, they hope for renewal. Outgoing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson just days ago openly flirted with the notion of running for Governor in 2010. The prospect could look more appealing if the grand jury probe turns sour on the Guv and tarnishes Di in the process. Of course, Heather has her own ethics issues. Remember that little ol' US attorney scandal? Still, Wilson more or less secured the endorsement of the ABQ Journal for the 2010 GOP Guv nod on Sunday. Now, if outgoing Rep. Steve Pearce will just stay out of her way--as the Journal hoped and prayed he would---Heather could be on her way again--at least with Republicans.

CRESTFALLEN HOPEFULS

And how about that list of potential Light Guv candidates for Denish to pick from when she is appointed governor? Well, they can unpack their suitcases. For how long is anyones guess. And how about all those governor appointed and highly paid "exempt employees?" Di had asked all of them to justify their jobs as she prepared to take the reins. But today they still answer to Big Bill.
That whooshing sound you hear is several hundred of them exhaling in relief. (As long as Di did not give Bill any ideas about chopping a few of them.)

THE ROUNDHOUSE IMPACT

If there were still gobs of oil and gas money to gobble up, Bill's national setback may have been more eventful to the upcoming 60 day session of the Legislature. Not that there aren't consequences. The rebels will relish taking on what they perceive as a weakened chief executive. But the governor--even a weakened one--retains the veto power. And with an anticipated shortfall of at least $453 million, new programs and proposals will die for a lack of money, not necessarily because of acrimony and politics between lawmakers and the Fourth Floor. Bill, after licking his wounds for a few minutes, was probably already plotting his return--in the form of an 800 pound gorilla. If solons come looking for a fight, he will give them one. He is, however, already on the defensive with the state Senate. He can again be expected to look to House Speaker Lujan and other favorites to smooth his way around the storied Roundhouse.

State Sen. Tim Jennings had some good analysis on TV news. He said the upside of Richardson staying on is having one governor for the entire session. There's already enough confusion in Santa Fe.

And will this latest ethics issue--the latest in a long, long line--finally spark significant campaign finance reform in the state? Reader Fred Sisneros wondered:

I am saddened to hear that he withdrew. I think he could have helped this state from the Commerce position. But I was even more disappointed to hear of the investigation. I would love to see this state expand publicly financed campaign to more offices, even the Governors seat. Maybe some of the new Democratic blood in the legislature could push it.

They could, Fred. But with an imploding economy, interest may lie elsewhere.


MEDIA PLAY

NM TV news turned it on for the Big Bill story. We interviewed with Jeff Mahr at KOB-TV and Crystal Gutierrez at KRQE. Nationally, right leaning blogger Michelle Malkin made some hay with the Obama-Richardson trouble. The ABQ Journal's Mike Gallagher has been on the story from the start. He has the primer on the deal that dashed Bill's hopes. Solid New York Times coverage is here.

MORE READER REACTION

The e-mail box was busy with reaction to the big story. Eli Chavez, a longtime foe of the Guv who years ago dubbed him "El Patron," has been quiet recently, but he came out of the woodwork for this one.

Joe, I am the happiest person on the face of the earth. This is the beginning of the big crash within both parties… New Mexicans deserve better. It is time to clean house and you know what I mean...I was beat up by El Patron and his buddies… but I can take a punch regardless if it is a jab or a hook. Viva Nuevo México and its people regardless of background and political party.

A South Valley Alligator started circulating a joke. "Bill and Manny will soon be cellmates!"

That's a reference to the impending imprisonment of former State Senator Manny Aragon on corruption charges.


But there was a good share of sadness over the turn of events. This from a Senior Alligator:

"It is a sad time for us who have enjoyed watching Bill's ride. Whether we agree with him or not he has put New Mexico on the world stage. It will be unfortunate for all of us New Mexicans if there is more to Bill's involvement that just smoke. Whatever the case, the long knives will certainly emerge and the upcoming session will probably be unpleasant."

And then there some of my favorites--the conspiracy theorists. Bill's rocky relationship with the Clintons gave rise to this e-mailed missive:

Joe, Any inkling that the Clintons were behind this? Any word of manila envelopes sent to the grand jury investigators, bearing a Chappaqua, NY (where the Clintons live) or Harlem (where President Clinton has an office) post mark? Have the Clintons been seen high-fiving each other? Any joggers in the vicinity of Richardson's residence, along with missing family pets & slashed tires? Signed, Suspicious in Paradise.

Hey, Suspicous. Did you see this?

An upstate New York developer donated $100,000 to former President Bill Clinton’s foundation in November 2004, around the same time that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton helped secure millions of dollars in federal assistance for the businessman’s mall project.

How does Hill's deal differ from what the feds are investigating down here?

What a day it was--one that will be duly recounted in the years ahead in the never-ending and always fascinating book of La Politica.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Sunday, January 04, 2009

SUNDAY STUNNER: RICHARDSON WITHDRAWS COMMERCE NOMINATION 

ASSOCIATED PRESS: WASHINGTON (AP) — New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has withdrawn his nomination to be President-elect Barack Obama's commerce secretary amid a grand jury investigation. Obama's transition office said Sunday that Obama has accepted Richardson's withdrawal.

Complete Obama and Richardson statements here.

ABC News says Obama transition team faults Richardson for not being forthcoming about investigation

Lt. Governor Diane Denish released this statement:

"Governor Richardson postponed taking a position in the administration to ensure that President Obama and the American people face no delays in getting to work to fix our ailing economy, and the President-elect said he looks forward to Governor Richardson joining his administration in the days ahead. In the meantime, Governor Richardson and I will work together, as we have over the last six years, to tackle challenges at home, to craft a workable budget with the legislature and to strengthen our economy to make sure that every New Mexico family has the opportunity to succeed."

Here is the stunning news, coming from NBC at 11 a.m. Sunday:

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, tapped in December by President-elect Barack Obama to serve as secretary of Commerce, has withdrawn his name for the position, citing a pending investigation into a company that has done business with his state.

"Let me say unequivocally that I and my Administration have acted properly in all matters and that this investigation will bear out that fact," he said Sunday in a report by NBC News' Andrea Mitchell. "But I have concluded that the ongoing investigation also would have forced an untenable delay in the confirmation process."

He said he plans to continue in his role as governor. "I appreciate the confidence President-elect Obama has shown in me, and value our friendship and working partnership. I told him that I am eager to serve in the future in any way he deems useful. And like all Americans, I pray for his success and the success of our beloved country."

Washington Post coverage here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
 
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