It's going to take more than ethics scandals to put a Republican in the Governor's chair, says veteran field organizer and pundit Steve Cabiedes. He argues that the current field of GOP candidates does not offer a singularly strong contender who could fully take advantage of the corruption issue.

ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez will return to where his political career was born--the city's West side--to make official his candidacy for a third mayoral term in a row and a fourth overall. That word comes from my senior political sources. They say Chavez will kick off his campaign for re-election at 2 p.m. Sunday at the Don Newton (Taylor Ranch) Community Center.

The West Side is where it all started for Chavez, in 1988, when he was elected to represent the area in the state Senate. He scored a landslide mayoral re-election win there in 2005 and needs that base of support in 2009 to fend off challengers Richard Romero, a Democrat, and Republican Richard "RJ" Berry.

In recent months Chavez has played possum with a willing press corp who have given him considerable attention over when he would make his announcement. Sunday's event will come as a surprise only to those who live in a cave.

By announcing Sunday, Chavez will make this a less than 90 day run to the October 6 election, limiting the time his opponents have to inflict damage. Early voting starts at the beginning of September. An afternoon Sunday event will also score well-watched evening TV news coverage.

The 57 year old leader is positioned for another win, say my veteran analysts, but they caution that unexpected events in the news cycle could open the door for the mayor's foes.

THE GATORS SET THE ODDS

We (a survey of my Alligators) are putting the "over-under" for Chavez's re-election at 43.5 percent. It takes 40 percent to avoid a run-0ff election which Chavez did in 2005.

The campaign thus far has been fairly quiet, with the exception of a sensational murder at a Denny's restaurant on the West Side. His challengers scored their first political points by focusing on the issue. In response, Democrat Chavez is now again proposing to add officers to the police department. What could be the defining moment of the campaign, if Chavez wins, may have come in late May when the labor union AFSCME for the first time endorsed Chavez for Mayor. The union represents 3,500 city workers. Not all union members were happy with the decision, but it will stand and be heavily promoted by the incumbent.

All contenders have qualified for public financing. They will each have about $330,000 to spend. That will keep expensive network TV ads from coming probably until at least mid-August. One unknown is how much, if any, third party money will come on behalf of the candidates. Republicans have already spent some cash to help Berry get on the ballot. Nonprofit groups active for liberals in the '08 state cycle have so far been quiet.

Some Chavez insiders think under ideal conditions he could head toward 50 percent on Election Night. However, the chief executive will have to guard against impulsiveness and a streak of flippancy that has sometimes surfaced in his campaign statements.

MORE STARTING GATE ANALYSIS

One break for the middle-of-the-road Mayor is this: Anti-growth progressives who have long been a thorn in his side may not be as much of a problem this year because of the economic slowdown. Rapid and sprawling growth is not an in-your-face issue. In fact, the ABQ commercial real estate market is experiencing severe recessionary conditions and unemployment is at a decades high rate of 7 percent. On the other hand, the housing slowdown and high unemployment might give his challengers an opportunity, but they will have to be creative.

Longtime state political analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides who has worked for Chavez in the past, says right now he sees an electorate that is not so interested in change at City Hall, but more concerned about restoring the city to its previous economic health; he says they don't blame Chavez for the economy falling off the cliff.

"The devil you know is better than the devil you don't," analyzed the veteran politico.

Another Chavez worry is how tired portions of the electorate may be of the longtime incumbent. That's why the over-under is set by the Alligators at a somewhat conservative 43.5 percent in a three way contest. In 2005, Chavez won with 47 percent of the vote in a four way race. He was first elected Mayor in 1993 when he beat Republican Dave Cargo by the narrowest margin--less than 600 votes-- since we went to the modern council-mayor form of government in 1974.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Senator Tom Udall has begun a weekly news conference with NM radio reporters dubbed, "Tuesdays with Tom." Senator Bingaman continues his radio news conferences on Mondays. Bingaman's are generally posted on his Web site and available to the public. Access to Udall's are by password for now, but his office says they will also soon be available on the Senator's site....Freshman Dem State Rep. Eliseo Lee Alcon is not shooting low in his 2010 fundraising. His July 14 event being hosted by Isleta Pueblo Governor Robert Benavides and Acoma Pueblo Governor Chandler Sanchez is going for either $1000 or $300 a pop...

Ted Martinez is Diane Denish's campaign chairman, not her Treasurer as we first blogged Wednesday...Ted is a longtime NM educator who has major league public service under his belt....And we said the state Senate Majority leader "lurks" as a possible Dem guv candidate.

Diane Denish
Old loyalties die hard, but does Diane Denish need to start reassessing hers? That's the tough question for the early front runner for the 2010 Democratic Guv nomination, and it's hitting home in the wake of news that Big Bill's onetime chief fund-raiser is co-hosting an event for Denish and in the wave of escalating Republican attacks over the multi-layered scandals shadowing New Mexican politics.

Eyebrows were raised (or brows furrowed, if you prefer) over an invitation to a $250 July 24th fund-raiser for the lieutenant governor to be co-hosted by Amanda Cooper and her husband, Jim Noel. Cooper hasn't been accused of any wrongdoing, but all aspects of Richardson's campaign fund-raising for Governor and President and his various committees and foundations in which Cooper was a key player are under investigation by the US Attorney's office and a federal grand jury. We previously blogged that our insider sources confirmed that Cooper, the step-daughter of US Senator Tom Udall, has been granted immunity from prosecution in exchange for her testimony to the grand jury. That does not mean she is implicated in any wrongdoing, but the political implications are obvious. Richardson's fund-raising and the pay-to-play allegations are potential political dynamite for Denish. (The Friday federal indictment watch is now the most popular indoor political sport).

Here's the fund-raising invitation that has them talking:

You are invited to a Reception In Support of Lt. Governor Diane Denish To benefit her campaign for Governor. Hosted By: David Smoak and Charity Townsend Jim Noel and Amanda Cooper July 24, 2009 5:30 – 7:00 pm At The Home of David Smoak and Charity Townsend. Suggested donation: $250 per person

And here's the money graph from the ABQ Journal hit piece authored by NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. as they launch their ethics assault:

(Denish) moved to the other side of the table when Richardson repeatedly poked at the side of her leg. Why hasn't she moved to the other side of the table on corruption? Is it not as important? If she has lacked the courage to speak vigorously against corruption, she is unfit to be governor.

That stung her, and Di used her campaign chair, Ted Martinez, to strike back:

Chairman Yates once again showed how little Republicans have to offer...I know Diane and her record fighting corruption. Just this past legislative session Diane pushed for more transparency in campaign fundraising...She backed a law that requires all state contracts be posted on the Internet...And Diane wrote the law to reform New Mexico's Regional Housing Authorities...That is just the start of Lt. Governor Denish's work on ethics...

The state's number two may be reluctant to firmly separate herself from Bill's operations. She must secure the nomination in a party heavy with his operatives and supporters. And State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez lurks as an alternative nominee.

Denish has spoken out on the regional housing authority scandal, but has not delivered a broader ethics message or taken other high-profile steps to separate herself from the cloud of corruption. Neither has she taken note this year of the specific allegations that have made for the screaming headlines and damaged the popularity of Richardson.

WHAT'S NEXT

Republicans, hampered by their lack of a well-known Guv candidate, are working to find their voice on the issue. Restless independent voters are prime targets. Can the R's define Di with the corruption mess before she gets out of the Dem primary? Does she have the luxury of continued silence as she tries to keep all Dems on board before the primary? Or does a break need to be made now to ensure general election viability?

There's no question that New Mexicans next year are going to want to turn the page on the pay to play and excessive political fund-raising that has tarnished the state. What message is Denish sending with the Cooper co-hosted fund-raiser? More important, what will be her message on the epic corruption that has infested the state during the time she has served? And when will that message come?

THE BOTTOM LINES

The name of the new communications staffer for ABQ mayoral candidate Richard Romero is Tim McGivern, not Tim McGovern, as we called him in a first draft. Of course, he's been called worse...Speaking of typos, we're not alone. Look at this one getting wrong the name of one of the mayoral candidates:

Congregation Albert Brotherhood will be hosting a mayoral debate on Sunday, September 13th at 11:00am. Congregation Albert has a long history of outstanding debates dating back 60 years. The invitees include Richard Romero, Martin Chavez and Richard Perry. Richard Romero has already committed to attend.

Richard Perry? That would be Republican Richard "RJ" Berry. But if Chavez agrees to debate him, he'll answer to any name you call him...

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Steve Pearce pulled an itchy campaign trigger Monday, apparently egged on by national R's to take on Southern NM Dem Congressman Harry Teague in the aftermath of Teague's vote for a climate control bill that may or may not be a major issue when the campaign begins in earnest over a year from now. (Our July 2 analysis of that vote is here.)

We say itchy finger because Pearce first told Roll Call he would make a decision on his political future by June 30. He then revised that for the Politico, saying D-Day would fall from July 20 to July 27. He ended up issuing a news release on Monday, amid one of the the lowest rated news consuming weeks of the year--the July Fourth holiday. But he did end the uncertainty over a possible 2010 race for Governor and gave the R's a first-tier candidate to take on Teague who scored a handsome victory over Republican Ed Tinsley in 2008, returning the seat to the Dems for the first time since 1980. (Roll Call coverage with former New Mexican Josh Kurtz is here. CQ weighs in here and the Politico comes with this take.)

Pearce's presence on the GOP ticket could help the R's in other races in the south such as the aforementioned Guv run as well as lower tier contests for posts such as Land Commissioner. If Pearce does anything well, it is galvanizing the conservative southern GOP base. That should help get R's to the polls, but taking out Teague will take a 15 round heavyweight brawl in which organization and money will rule the day. Right now, that advantage is firmly in Teague's corner. Obama put in place an organization Teague can tap and money will be no problem for Teague who will get national Dem support and also has his own oil fortune to tap. Teague has already shown he is not shy with a pen, writing out big checks for his '08 campaign.

Pearce will be competing for dollars with other out-of-power R's. To raise the dough, he will need credible polling that gives him a shot, and he may have to do something that he has always resisted--tap his own oil fortune just like his Lea County neighbor Harry Teague.

THE ROMERO DILEMMA

While the congressional races are a light year away, there is no time to idle for those seeking to become mayor of ABQ. The election is October 6. The sense of urgency for those hoping to take out three term Democrat Mayor Martin Chavez was driven home Monday as Democrat Richard Romero moved to shake things up by bringing in a new campaign manager. He apparently hopes a new face can help solve the political puzzle that has blocked him from gaining significant traction.

Gone from the campaign is manager Neri Holguin. The rumor mill had her heading for the exits as soon as Romero lost the endorsement of AFSCME--the union that represents 3,500 city workers and who for the first time endorsed Chavez. Some of the Alligators saw it as a death blow to the Romero effort and they blamed...who else?...the campaign manager.

Holguin had not played at this level before. She managed successful legislative campaigns, but not a citywide or statewide contest. She brought valuable connections with Obama progressives, but Romero, a former Republican who once became state Senate leader by forming a coalition with Republicans, has had trouble generating enthusiasm among them. His new choice for 'lead strategist" is Murray Fishel, an Ohio-based consultant, who has close ties to ABQ Dem State Rep. Mimi Stewart who headed up the state Dem legislative campaign effort in 2008. One of our insiders said Fischel has for a number of years helped train Dem legislative candidates and said he has considerable experience with direct mail. Fischel is in his 60's and was described by a consultant who knows him as a "McGovern liberal." (For those of a certain age, McGovern ran for President in '72.)

Not to be mistaken with McGovern is Tim McGivern, the former editor of the alternative Weekly Alibi who has now joined the Romero campaign to handle communications.

Whoever Romero has on board faces face a daunting challenge--generating passion for a political change at City Hall.

ELI'S COMING...OR NOT?

The ABQ political community continues to buzz over whether Eli Lee, ringmaster of the political nonprofits, will somehow--despite new city campaign finance laws--find a way to get progressive nonprofit money into this race for mayor to help Romero. Holguin has worked with Lee who had a consulting firm heavily involved in several previous ABQ election cycles. Lee and the federally tax-exempt nonprofits have come under the microscope for not disclosing their campaign contributions or contributors in '08 legislative races. Romero has advocated public financing and ethics reform. He may be on the hot seat if groups come with unreported money and he looks the other way.

Lee has a reputation as a talented consultant who had no troubles with the press and public when he was running campaigns where all business was conducted in the open. But he and his supporters have gone to war with the ABQ Journal and some bloggers over the matter of nonprofit disclosure. It's a battle that could heat up along with the summer temperatures.

THE BOTTOM LINES
Cody Unser
Off the political beat, we chatted with Cody Unser recently who was excited about the New Mexico premiere of the documentary "CODY, The First Step." It was produced in association with the Cody Unser First Step Foundation. The film, narrated by actress Glen Close, premiers Wednesday at 5 p.m. at ABQ's downtown Kimo Theater. Tickets are $10. Cody is one resilient young woman who has inspired a lot of people. She might even make a good politician. On second thought, let's not corrupt our youth....

E-mail it in--news, comments and political gossip. We're here to serve.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Kevin Daniels
GOP businessman Kevin Daniels continues to take quiet steps toward a run for the ABQ congressional seat, despite the wish of some R's at the top of the food chain that attorney Jon Barela go unopposed for the nomination. But Daniels isn't hearing them. A political advisor to the owner of a chain of funeral homes says Daniels will be in Washington this week introducing himself to the National Republican Congressional Committee and signaling his intent to make a run--Barela or no Barela. Will the NRCC heavies try to talk Daniels down?