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Friday, July 24, 2009

PRC Circus Continues: A Cheatin' Heart: PRC's Sloan Busted For Beating Up Romantic Rival, Plus: How Icy Is State Hiring Freeze? 

PRC's Sloan
You want value for your entertainment dollar during this recession? Forget the movies or that sale at Dillard's, just tune in to the NM Public Regulation Commission, the powerful panel that is charged with regulating the state's major utility companies. First we had a Santa Fe jury finding that Republican Commissioner David King sexually harassed his former assistant and having her awarded $840,000 in damages. Then we had the indictment on election-related charges of Democratic Commissioner Jerome Block, Jr. as well as his father, former Commissioner Jerome Block, Sr. Now, we have Dem Commissioner Carol Sloan arrested for going after a Gallup woman she apparently believes has been "entertaining" her husband of over 30 years. And that doesn't mean they're watching Netflix together. To the police report and the Navajo Times:

Gallup police are investigating a report that Carol Sloan, a member of the New Mexico Public Regulatory Commission and a former McKinley County clerk, committed aggravated assault on July 15. According to city police , Sloan attacked Brenda Yazzie at her apartment in Gallup between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m., hitting her with a rock she had in her hand.

Yazzie said Sloan also kicked her during the attack and yelled at her, accusing her of having an affair with her husband of over 30 years. Yazzie told police that she and Sloan's husband, Jameson Sloan, had been exchanging phone calls in the past few weeks about a medical condition both of them had. Police officials said Tuesday that no arrest warrant has been issued as yet and the case is under investigation.

And here's the ABQ Journal's version.

Commissioner Sloan rock throwing and kicking? The western NM Dem, a former McKinley County Clerk, has been as quiet as a nun--until now. She was elected in 2006 and is eligible to run for re-election in 2010. She won in a landslide last time. And with her demonstrated familiarity with rocks, dare we say she may turn in another "landslide."

So now we have three of the five PRC commissioners making like a modern-day vaudeville act. All we need next is Commissioners Jason Marks and Sandy Jones to join the fun. Come on fellas, the taxpayers are already forking out good money for a three ring circus. Might as well make it a five ringer.

HOW COLD IS THAT FREEZE?

Itchy legislators wondering just what kind of hiring freeze the Governor has slapped on state government in the wake of the crash of state revenues are learning that 317 classified jobs have been filled during the so-called freeze as have 41 so called "exempt" positions. Those are the jobs where you can be fired at will and that you often get through political connections. Bill's office continues to explain that the freeze exceptions are approved by the Department of Finance and the state Personnel office. They add that so far the freeze is on track to save $9.6 million a year and that 1,200 positions have been held open since the freeze began last November.

The Guv's office says most of the classified jobs being filled relate to the public safety and health. But 317 of them? The Legislature may have a different opinion on which jobs are vital and which aren't. Will we hear that opinion during an anticipated special session of the Legislature in October?

SHIP-JUMPING SEASON

We are also now hearing of the usual end-of-the-administration-ship jumping, That's when a person working at the pleasure of the Governor or a cabinet secretary hunts around for a state classified job--one from which the next Governor can't fire them. The trick is you must serve a year on "probation" in the classified post. During that time you are subjected to firing for just about any cause. The ship-jumpers are going to want to get classified jobs by December so they can do their year of probation and lock down before the new Governor takes office Jan. 1, 2011.

Ship-jumping has already made headlines with two "exempt" cultural affairs employees managing to get themselves into classified positions recently, a move that is not going unnoticed by lawmakers. It's hard to justify placing political appointees of cultural affairs into classified positions in that department. What do those posts have to do with public safety concerns?

The New Mexican economy is currently supporting about 25,000 full-time state employees as we enter a long-term era of slow or no economic growth. Either that number continues to come down, or something else is cut to keep the payroll party going. This comment from one of our readers seems to sum it up best.

During the special session the wolf will be at the door and will not leave without cheeks in his teeth! Enough cheeks to get through the winter.


MORE BLOG ECON BEAT

Meantime, on the jobless front, the state reports job growth in NM remains at a 55 year low. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 6.8 percent in June, from 6.5 percent in May. The experts agree that number underestimates the actual number of unemployed especially when you add in those who have given up, moved away or have taken part time work. The "official" jobless rate is now at a 12 year high. From June '08 to June '09 the state lost over 26,000 jobs. 13,000 of those were lost in the ABQ metro.

In the ABQ area, where a mayor's race is underway, the seasonally adjusted jobless number dipped slightly to 6.8 percent, down from that startling 7.0 percent number in May. The next mayor, like the next Governor, is going to be saddled with a reduced revenue stream forcing some tough decision prompting intense political fights over what programs and government jobs stay and which go. That's why a strong hiring freeze with very few exceptions is one of the more effective ways to cut costs The pain is spread across the board and the politics is minimized. It's the politicos making exceptions and hiring friends that is the fly in the proverbial ointment.

HE FOUND A JOB

Not everyone looking for work is coming up empty handed. ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens has landed a new gig.He will be a business broker with Vaughn Co. doing evaluation, marketing and sales of Albuquerque area businesses. Cravens and his wife Melanie have owned and operated Alphagraphics in ABQ for a number of years. They will continue with that business.Given this economy, in his new job Cravens may find himself busy. The new retail era is going to mean less demand for all kinds of stores which could mean more of them closing or being sold to stronger ownership.

AND ANOTHER JOB FOUND

A name familiar to old times in the news game has also surfaced on the state job market. Mark Slimp, who in the 70's and 80's worked as the news director for KOB-TV and before that as a reporter for KOAT-TV has landed a gig as the spokesman for the state Department of Transportation. He replaces S.U. Mahesh who has moved over to the taxation and revenue department. Slimp, a University of New Mexico grad, also put in time at the network level, serving as a producer for ABC News. For the past decade, he was vice president for broadcast programing for AARP in D.C.

The department has been mired in a myriad of controversies in recent years. Sec, Rhonda Faught got out, but under a cloud. Big Bill has made national news over the years for hiring so many current and former journalists to fill PR slots. It seemed to help him some in his first term, not so much in his second. It could be argued that the hiring freeze could be extended to PR posts, but it can also be argued that the transportation department does indeed deal with public safety matters.

Slimp will have his hands full keeping a lid on things in the waning days of this administration. Whether he and others in the Santa Fe crowd make it into the next one is an open question. But welcome back, Mark. We'll have to get Dick Knipfing to buy you a lemonade.

LATE BREAKING

Dem Robert Aragon, who recently endorsed Republican Jon Barela for the ABQ US House seat, was removed from his position as a ward chairman by a committee of the Bernalillo County Dem Party. More on that and the ABQ House race next week.

THE BOTTOM LINES

How about some good news from Governor Big Bill? You got it:

Governor Richardson congratulated the Buckhorn Tavern in San Antonio, New Mexico for its win this week on the Food Network’s “Throwdown with Bobby Flay.” Buckhorn owner, Bobbie Olguin’s garnered national attention by defeating host Bobby Flay in the battle for the best green chile cheeseburger. In recognition of the victory, the Governor has declared Friday July 24th, 2009 “Buckhorn Tavern Day.”

We're with you, Guv. Let's throw the diets away and head down to the Buckhorn. Then we'll head over to the State Fair where Bill is now calling for a green chile cheeseburger cooking contest. Do you think we're going to let him get away with calling for a contest and not entering? He may be the New Mexico election champion, but they're going to be lined up to take him on for the burger title.

Bill, you better have Barbara get that cooking apron and chef's hat out, you're gonna need them...

E-mail all your news tips, comments and summer refreshment recipes.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Libs Score Heinrich On Health Care; Breaking With Obama? Heather Wilson Lite Or New Leadership? Plus: First Mayor Face-Off & ABQ Housing Prices 

Rep. Heinrich & Friend
Hold on tight, Mr. President. You're team is entering some Class IV rapids on the Rio Grande but there are more placid waters ahead, as long as you don't flip over during this health care debate. And by the way, Mr. President, it appears some of your buddies here think Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich could be doing more to keep the raft afloat. You're approval rating in Rio Grande Land is a very healthy 61% in the SurveyUSA released Wednesday night. That's up from 53 percent in June for a two month average of 57 percent. It's not as if Martin has a real good reason to jump ship, but he's been spotted paddling in the opposite direction on your key issue of the day--health care--and it's causing some grimacing among those who really believed in your "change" message. Let's check it out.

Agree or disagree with the politics, this is an important presidency we are witnessing and if Obama is going to avoid the fate of Jimmy Carter he needs his crew at his back. But liberal critics here are calling out Heinrich, whose historic election to the ABQ US House seat was authored in large part by Obamamania. They are upset that he is not more upfront in the fight to reform health care and specifically for dumping on the President's idea of taxing families with income of more than $1 million to help pay for reform. Here's the money graph that has them talking:

Congressman Martin Heinrich says he's not happy about a potential tax hike.

"...We have to be committed to providing health care reform this year to stabilize a very problematic system, but it's still a work in progress and I think we need to reduce costs before considering other options."


But how many families in Martin's district make over a million bucks a year? You can count them on your toes--probably on one foot.

Even the liberals understand that Heinrich has to keep the ball in the center of the field to hold the ABQ district in 2010, but some Obamaites are asking when did it become politically deadly to advocate for a tax increase for millionaires, hardly any of whom live around here? (Not that all the Obamaites are entirely happy with Obama as he veers to the center on certain matters).

MARTIN'S MEMORY

Memories may not be very long in modern politics, but folks haven't forgotten how Obama embraced the Heinrich candidacy in front of a record crowd of nearly 40,000 in ABQ just days before the November election. Not to mention the money and organization that was sent his way. Now the Heinrich watchers wonder where Martin is now that the President's chief agenda item is on the line. They score the record this way: He's against the millionaire tax, has authored no prominent op-ed pieces promoting the plan and done no push back against aggressive R attacks.

As the President prepared for his news conference Wednesday evening, it was Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon and liberal ABQ Dem State Senator Eric Griego carrying water for the President in the ABQ media market. Heinrich was not seen on TV advocating for the plan, an arrangement easily put together in the satellite age, nor heard on radio or seen on the Web.

Those watching this raft trip from a progressive perspective have particular questions: Has Heinrich gone overboard in worrying about his personal re-election chances thus throwing the President overboard on an easy political lay up like raising taxes on millionaires? Is this the promised new Democratic leadership on health care for the First Congressional District of New Mexico or is this Heather Wilson lite, the politics of Heinrich's GOP predecessor? The Congressman may hear these concerns more directly during the long August recess. In fact, before this health care debate is over, the new representative may hear them from those charged with protecting the captain of the ship residing in the White House.

THE CITY BEAT

A Senior Alligator reports on the first face-off among the three candidates for ABQ mayor held before business groups Wednesday morning:

No surprises today. Marty spoke forcefully about his accomplishments, (Richard) Berry promised change without specifics and (Richard) Romero read from his notebook of talking points. No questions from the audience.

And on the city econ beat, the dead-tree boys are starting to pick up on what the business Alligators here have been blogging for months: ABQ housing prices are heading lower and no amount of spin is going to stop it.

THE BOTTOM LINES

This is an important addendum and correction to the Santa Fe power scene we talked about this week in regard to the anticipated October special session of the Legislature. It comes from a Capitol Corridor Alligator:

Joe: Your July 21 edition mentions Sen. John Arthur Smith as the
Legislative Finance Committee "co-chair." Just wanted you to be clear that he currently is the "Vice-Chair" and that Democrats State Rep. "Lucky" Varela is the "Chairman." Big difference between a co-chair and a vice-chair, don't you think? Want to clarify that if a special legislative session becomes necessary, the "Chair" of the LFC will and should take the lead on this!

Yes, Lucky will indeed take the lead, but we think he and John "Dr. No" Smith read largely from the same page. Thanks for the clarification.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

More #2 Action; Rail Runner Rael Starts Moving Light Guv Money Train, Plus: City Different Action; Always Interesting, And: Chavez & Romero News 

Lawrence Rael
Will the cash count be the deciding factor in the wide-open-who-knows-who-will-win-race for the 2010 Dem nomination for lieutenant governor? It could. That's why it caught our eye when we received word that Lawrence Rael will host an August 6 cocktail reception where ticket prices top out at $1000 and are also being offered at $500 and $100. The fund-raiser announcement comes even before Rael makes a formal entry into the crowded light guv race. That's expected soon. But such is the importance of the cash count that the fund-raiser is already being touted before the issues. Campaign pros say it will take $250,000 just to establish credibility and as much as $500,000, if not more, to take the #2 prize.

The host committee for the Rael reception includes high-powered ABQ trial attorneys Margaret and Turner Branch; former Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos; Sandoval County Commissioner Donnie Leonard; businesswoman and former University of New Mexico Regent Maria Griego-Raby and Steve Anaya, executive VP of the Realtors Association of NM and nephew of former NM Governor Toney Anaya. The reception will be held at the law offices of Salazar and Sullivan who specialize in medical malpractice.

Rael, 51, has never held or run for elective office. He is now executive director of the Mid-Region Council of Governments which spearheaded the development of the Rail Runner, an issue the former longtime chief administrative office for the city of ABQ is sure to use on the trail. (There is good but there is also bad to that.)

And he will have a lot of company on that trail. ABQ State Senators Linda Lopez and Jerry Ortiz y Pino are off and running as is Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano. Numerous other candidates wait in the wings, including NM Dem Party Chair Brian Colon. Insiders think Rael and Colon have the most fund-raising prowess. Are they right?

Rael is said to have a good relationship with early 2010 Dem Guv front-runner and current Light Guv Diane Denish. Talk has also circulated of Rael being chief of staff if Denish took over the Fourth Floor. As a light guv nominee, his Hispanic background would balance a Denish-led ticket, but he is not from the Hispanic north, which some observers see as the ideal home area for the Dem ticket's second banana.

READERS WRITE

Speaking of Linda Lopez, our Tuesdy blog talking of repealing the state tax cuts for the wealthy passed in the early years of Big Bill's term brought this reaction from longtime reader Danny Hernandez:

Talk of repealing the Richardson tax breaks for the upper income brackets reminds me that Sen. Lopez has introduced a bill to return income taxes to pre-2004 rates every year since 2004...Perhaps 2010 will be the year this bill will get some traction. While I'm on Linda's soap box: You keep writing how Lady Di needs to separate herself from Big Bill. From that strategic perspective: Who's better known for her independence from Richardson than Sen. Lopez?...

Well, the problem is not Linda's independence from Bill; it's her independence from Di. It was Denish who thwarted Lopez's ambitions years ago to get a slot on the ballot as lieutenant governor. Ever since their relationship has been icy, with occasional warm spots. But we're sure they can let bygones be bygones. Can't they? Of course, if Denish wins and Linda is Light Guv, we might have to start a second blog just to cover that relationship. Remember Bruce King and Casey Luna?

Reader Fred Van Soelen also had some thoughts on repealing the state tax cuts for the wealthy. He also commented on our thoughts that a tax increase to balance the state budget is unlikely when the Legislature meets in an expected October special session. Fred told us to get off the soap box:

When you say tax increases are off limits, but advocate for repealing tax cuts and tax breaks, it needs to be said that repealing a tax cut IS a tax increase, and repealing a tax break IS a tax increase. To argue otherwise is pure sophistry. And while I'm at it: don't spin the arguments for the tax increasers, let them do it on their own.


Fred, you busted us. I am now administering to my backside the traditional ten lashes with a wet noodle.

IT'S DIFFERENT THERE


Is the Santa Fe City Council, Mayor Coss and Big Bill bowing to sentiment and nostalgia or does it really make sense for the city and state to sell millions in bonds to purchase the failed liberal arts College of Santa Fe? From the outside, there seems ample reason to raise the question. The purchase, which appears unstoppable, could be either a brilliant move or a disaster that will haunt the city for years to come. Especially eyebrow raising is this statement from Santa Fe Councilor Wurzburger: "We have to get his done before next week." What? The debtors won't wait until important questions can be answered?

Getting it done means issuing $30 million in bonds backed by city revenues to wipe out the school's massive $20 million debt. Big Bill is promising another $11 million in bond capacity that the city would have to pay back with gross receipts tax revenue--revenue that continues to plunge. Is this economic development or a bail-out? The news report from the ABQ Journal's Kiera Hay reads like a Chinese crossword puzzle--the unanswerable questions on this deal are all over the map.

Even as the Santa Fe leadership gambles on a second coming for the College of Santa Fe, there may be no second chance for some of the city work force. Furloughs of city workers are impending because of the crash in city revenues brought on by the bear markets in tourism and real estate and the slowdown in government employment. Employee hours have already been cut to save money, now the furloughs. Can layoffs be far behind? But why worry? Let's go out and buy a college! Even the usually level-headed editors of the New Mexican seem smitten, even if not exactly sure how the deal will work. Well, they don't call it the City Different for nothing. The byzantine deal still lacks the necessary council votes. Maybe some last-minute sanity will prevail and Santa Fe's beleagured taxpayers will be spared from seeing their dollars entered into a crap shoot. Now that would really be a City Different.

PEARCE ON THE CLOCK

Here's 75 seconds of raw video of former southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce from Hobbs where Tuesday morning he made official his already widely reported decision to try to recapture the House seat he once held and that now belongs to Harry Teague. Steve also made an "official" announcement in Las Cruces Tuesday, the districts most vote-heavy region.

THE ABQ CAMPAIGN

Supporters of ABQ Mayor Chavez are hoping to score political points against fellow Democrat and mayoral hopeful Richard Romero by pointing out he gave numerous campaign donations to Republicans while serving s a lobbyist in Santa Fe. We blogged Tuesday of a $200 donation Romero made to GOP State Rep. Richard Berry in 2006. Berry is now also running for mayor. Other R's Romero gave money to include $200 contributions in 2006 to GOP legislative candidates Bill Rehm, Tom Anderson and $150 to GOP Rep. Jane Powdrell-Culbert. But Romero, who is now heavily courting progressive Dems, takes it in stride. His campaign says:

I think u covered it. Lobbyists tend to contribute campaign funds to legislators. Richard Romero, as a lobbyist, donated to many Republicans: Payne, Snyder, Youngberg, Hall et al, probably a small contribution to everyone of the ABQ Santa Fe delegation.

One of Romero's main lobbying clients was the University of New Mexico.

On the flip side of the coin, some Romero supporters are trying to make hay over the fact that Mayor Marty spent some $40,000 in campaign money in late 2008 to conduct an in depth poll, among other things. The assertion is that this may violate the city's public finance law and should count against the $328,000 in public money Chavez was given to conduct his 2009 re-elect bid. Trouble is
the 2009 council election calender put out by the city clerk indicates that the clock doesn't start ticking on city election spending until January 1 of the election year. It states:

Jan. 1 (Thurs.) Exploratory Period Begins for Public Campaign Funding.

It's a loophole in a law that seems riddled with them and the lawyers, we're sure, would be glad to argue about it. But like Romero's contributions to R's, this is a process issue that comes during the slow days of summer as we await serious engagement over serious issues. Meanwhile, it looks like there's still some iced tea in that pitcher. Enjoy.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news tips, comments and political info.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

October Special Session Coming Into View; Bill's Call But Key Lawmakers Bowing To Inevitable; State Finances Shipwrecked, Plus: The Carruthers Stretch 

The outlines of an October special legislative session are starting to come into sight as key players wrestle with one of the steepest economic downturns in state history. State Senator John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith, co-chair of the powerful Legislative Finance Committee, is telling insiders that an October special appears inevitable as state tax collections continue a precipitous decline. ABQ area GOP State Senator Sue Wilson-Beffort, a longtime member of the panel, shares that view. The new willingness for a special began to surface only recently as the downbeat and unrelenting sour economic news shakes even these most experienced New Mexican business and political experts.

The big question for the special which would have to be officially called by Big Bill is: Are we going to have across-the-board cuts to balance the state budget for the fiscal year that started July 1st? Maybe not, says Wilson-Beffort:

"We hope we are not looking into across the board cuts. It is a complex situation, but there are some programs that are not necessary for running state government that could be cut," she told me after a recent LFC session.

Bucket loads of federal stimulus money are slated to be plugged into ongoing government programs like Medicaid to avoid huge shortfalls, but plunging oil and gas revenues continue. Also, Big Bill and Dem Governors know a second federal stimulus bill is politically untenable as R's score points over the already huge federal deficit. One possible worry for the Guv in a special session could be a grab for the NM stimulus money by legislators seeking to divert it to their special projects, but financial circumstances are such it seems the chief executive will have little choice but to call the special.

Gerges Scott, a former journalist and now a communications consultant specializing in energy issues with public affairs company DW Turner, points out:

For every 10 cent drop in the price for a thousand cubic feet of natural gas, the state loses $12 million annually. For every dollar a barrel of oil drops, the state loses $3.4 million.

Natural gas prices have fallen to around the $3.50 level--a stunning crash that is costing the state hundreds of millions in annual revenues. Oil prices at or below $60 a barrel are adding to the financial pressure. And the general recession is causing personal income and gross receipts tax to fall off the cliff. What a mess!

THE TRIGGER
Wilson-Beffort
Solons are bracing for the next official budget projections slated for an August release. Those numbers are now widely expected to be the official trigger for the special session. Lawmakers have a regular 30 day session in January, but Wilson-Beffort says Governor Big Bill cannot act alone and use state reserves to get us through until then. She says the Legislature must authorize the budget-plugging needed now and that's why we are headed for an October special.

Those plunging personal and gross receipts tax collections are caused in part by fearful psychology. New Mexican consumers, like their counterparts elsewhere, have shut their wallets and purses, concerned that it could be their job that is the next to vanish. Throw on top of that the near depression conditions in the ABQ commercial real estate market and you have a state government under increasing pressure to restructure and rid itself of the excesses accumulated during the great bull market that crashed and burned in 2008.

POPULIST WAVE?
Smith aka "Dr. No"
Some political observers are noting the deepening resentment among rank and file state employees and perhaps the public as well over who will share the burden in balancing the state's stricken budget. By legislative mandate, most state workers have had to increase their pension payments by 1.5 percent, in effect a pay cut for two years. Also, advocates for the huge swath of state residents at or below the poverty level are making more and more noise about those tax cuts for the wealthy engineered by Governor Big Bill and the Legislature in the early part of his tenure. NM Voices for Children, sometimes thought to be on the far-left of the political spectrum, is finding itself more in the mainstream as it calls for a repeal of the Richardson income tax cuts for the wealthy. They are vigorously protesting further program cuts for the disadvantaged.

As rank and file state workers begin to absorb the financial hit, an undertow of populism is evident regarding the outsized salaries for hundreds of political employees, educational administrators and other state positions that have seen their pay scales skyrocket under Big Bill. Outrage is also being expressed over apparent violations of the state's hiring freeze ordered by the Governor. Senator Wilson-Beffort said that issue has been a hot one among LFC members as they question the authorization for exceptions to the freeze.

THE CHAIRMAN
Rep. Saavedra
The budget heat is high enough to even set off talk that the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, ABQ Dem State Rep. Kiki Saavedra, might draw a Dem primary challenger this cycle, an occurrence as rare as a lunar eclipse. While he defends those increased pension payments by rank and file workers as necessary to balance the budget, he has not been heard bemoaning out of whack salaries and bloat in the state bureaucracy or at the University of New Mexico where legislative appropriators have especially close ties. Those ties are coming under increased scrutiny as the economic pain spreads. It is not so much Saavedra's efforts to trim state spending as it is the issue of fairness in spreading the budget pain and causing sacrifice among the elite sacred cows along with the hoi polloi.

Still, taking on a powerful chairman who can administer heavy payback if a challenge fails, could keep potential opponents in the heavy Dem district at bay.

WATCH YOUR WALLET

A tax increase, a bad idea during a recession, not to mention its overall unpopularity, appears unlikely to come out of any October special session. (But let's not take repeal of the tax cuts for the rich or other special tax breaks off the table). There is some $600 million in cash reserves that can be used to shore up the short fall. In addition, key power players are telling me they will again look at money for capital improvement projects that has been laying around and unspent for several years. Lawmakers this year already transferred some of that money to the operating budget. They may repeat that process in the special session. The Legislature has authorized hundreds of millions for construction projects that never seem to get built.

Another year of this depressed economy and the rubber is really going to hit the road. Federal stimulus money and excess dollars still floating around from the golden years are preventing a full-fledged crisis that would force widespread government layoffs and severe program cuts. Chairman Smith and Company hope an economic recovery will kick in before unprecedented action has to be taken. Meanwhile, an anxious public looks on, wondering what programs, salaries and jobs may be cut and whether the politically connected will continue to avoid their share of the burden.

SPIN PATROL
Gov. Carruthers
We appreciate the home towning of Dona Ana GOP Guv candidate and District Attorney Susana Martinez, and think she'll be a fine contender. And what's wrong with having a Governor from Las Cruces? Jerry Apodaca came out of there to win the Guv's post in 1974 and is generally regarded as a pretty good chief executive. Long ago Guv Ed Mechem also hailed from the southern county. Former Governor Garrey Carruthers claimed the Four Corners as well as Las Cruces as hometown areas in his '86 campaign. He was born in Alamosa, Colorado. (More on that below).

But as endearing as the home towning can be, it doesn't mean we're off the spin watch. And that brings us to a contention of former Governor Carruthers. The dean of the College of Business at NM State University asserted in an ABQ Journal interview that Martinez is better known than Carruthers was at this stage of his campaign for Governor. Garrey sought and won the 1986 GOP Guv nod. He also claimed Susana was more known than Gary Johnson was in the summer before the 1994 GOP Guv primary. Johnson won that race and was elected Governor in November. Here's Garrey's newspaper quote:

Carruthers...said (Martinez) is "held in extremely high regard in Dona Ana County as a crusading DA," and has better name recognition now than he or the other recent Republican governor, Gary Johnson, did at this stage of their campaigns.


Garrey may want to review his history. By July of 1985, Carruthers, now 69, had a statewide profile and was a well-known New Mexico political personality. Why? Carruthers served as Special Assistant to the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture from 1974 to 1975, director of the New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute at New Mexico State University, State Chair of the NM Republican Party from 1977 to 1979 and Assistant Secretary of Interior for Land and Resources from 1981 to 1984. It was this well-established resume that put Carruthers in the top tier of GOP candidates for 1986. As well-known as DA Martinez is in Dona Ana County, to say she is as well-known as Carruthers was 10 months before his June primary is, well, a hometown stretch.

GARREY AND GARY
Susana Martinez
The Governor Johnson comparison also comes up short in the Carruthers historical test. In July of 1993 Johnson was a multimillionaire contractor who had made a fortune from work his company did at Intel Corporation in Rio Rancho. Granted, he was basically unknown, but he dipped into his personal fortune to buy the name recognition that led to him capturing the 1994 GOP Guv nomination. Martinez does not have the personal fortune Johnson had and will be unable to utilize one to come from nowhere. So it's true Martinez may be as well-known as Johnson was at this stage, but Johnson's money advantage makes the comparison academic. But then Governor Carruthers is now an academic.

All of this is not to say that Susana can't win, only that she is going to need more than hometown boosterism to do it. An unvarnished view of the historical challenge that awaits her and a plan to bring into her tent R's who live outside her home county would seem to be a sensible start.

THE CRUCES CONNECTION

When we think of Governors who came out of Las Cruces we always think of Jerry Apodaca, the state senator who was elected chief executive in 1974 and whose campaign was the first we ever covered. Garrey Carruthers was from Las Cruces when he won the governorship in 1986. but we always felt Garrey ran as a hometown hybrid. He grew up in the Four Corners--on a farm in Aztec--and when he campaigned in '86 he claimed both Cruces and San Juan County as home areas. Kind of like the first President Bush who claimed both Texas and Connecticut as home states. But when he won in 1985, Garrey was a Governor residing in Las Cruces, even if it didn't quite feel that way.

SPOILED ENCHILADAS

As if the recession isn't bad enough news for New Mexico restaurants, it's been an especially rough public relations stretch for the famous Roberto's restaurant in Las Cruces. The city annually hosts the world's largest enchilada festival with the help of Roberto's owner. (I think we earlier blogged that the big enchilada was made at the restaurant, but it is actually done near Las Cruces City Hall). But Roberto's was downgraded by local health officials on the very day that Susana Martinez said she would announce her Guv candidacy there. Since then Roberto's has been upgraded by the health squad. But shortly after that good news, a pick-up truck crashed into the famous landmark. The driver has been charged with aggravated DWI. Said Roberto's owner:

I guess he couldn't wait for enchiladas. And we don't know if he wanted red or green!"

WHY WOULDN'T THEY?

Rey Garduno
As anticipated, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez has scored the endorsement of the ABQ Police Officers Association, the union representing the cops. Chavez has been especially generous with salary packages for APD, so their backing was expected. Also, the Democratic mayor will never allow himself to be seen as soft as crime, especially in light of the mass murders discovered this year on the West Mesa and the sensational daylight murder and robbery at a West Side Denny's. However, when we bumped into City Councilor Rey Garduno at the grocery store a couple of weeks, he expressed concerns not often heard among politically sensitive councilors. (The Mayor posted on his Web site a radio spot cut on his behalf by the police union)

Substantial police raises (already negotiated for the current fiscal year) will put a strain on the city budget as tax collections continue to sputter. Garduno says criticism of the police budget has become tantamount to casting aspersions on mom and apple pie. But he points out public safety is consuming an ever larger percentage of the budget. More aggressive oversight is needed, argues the councilor. And he sounds persuasive.

Garduno's is a lone voice on the nine member council where the political implications of appearing "anti-public safety" are too hot to handle. The candidates for mayor join with Chavez in heartily endorsing more and more spending. (City Councilor Ken Sanchez has warned of tighter budget times ahead, and Monday repeated his concerns. Can't the dead-tree media do an update on the public safety budgets?)

Garduno pointed out that a long ago shop-lifting conviction he had and that surfaced during his council campaign in 2007 would surely be brought up if he aggressively pursues a watchdog role. He's probably right, but his willingness to advocate an overdue public debate at a personal cost has a ring of nobility. That's not a word that we have been able to employ much in describing recent events in our still beloved La Politica...

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, July 20, 2009

ABQ Mayor Money Trail: Hopefuls Report; Their Strategy & Outlook, Plus: City Council Action; Harris Dodges Brasher Bullet & The Other Hot Contests 

Challengers to ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez have not been parsimonious in their first weeks of spending on the campaign trail, and that reinforces the conventional wisdom that the October 6 race is the Mayor's to lose. In their first finance reports filed with the city, Republican Richard "RJ" Berry and Dem Richard Romero report spending over $60,000 of the $328,000 of the public funds the mayor hopefuls are getting to run their races. By contrast, the late-starting Chavez spent only $37,000.

The pros say it appears that combined Romero and Berry will now have perhaps $400,000 for paid media for the final 75 days of the 2009 race and Chavez perhaps around $260,000. The remaining money will go to salaries and other non-media expenditures. That is not a great disparity for the incumbent. With the price of direct mail and TV spots, it is not the kind of financial firepower that can sustain much more than three or so weeks of heavy attack ads from the Romero and Berry camps.

OUTSIDE MONEY

The question remains whether third party groups will come to the aid of the challengers or Chavez. Under city rules any outside committee that does come with an attack against a candidate would trigger matching funds for the candidate being attacked. For example, if a group calling itself "Time For A Change" throws up $10,000 in attack ads against Chavez, his campaign would be eligible to receive matching funds from city campaign funds. The question of involvement by federally sanctioned nonprofit groups is unanswerable. They do not report their donations or expenditures. If it is determined by the city that one or more of them has delivered an attack message against a candidate, there would be no way of knowing how much the attack cost. How could the candidate subjected to the nonprofit attack be awarded matching funds?

A THICK PAYROLL


Romero and Berry have spent substantially in the early rounds on paid professional help, a practice that Chavez has limited in this race as he has in his three previous mayoral bids. Romero paid Neri Holguin, his now replaced campaign manager, about $17,000 for several months service and reimbursements, according to the city report. Berry's campaign manager, Dana Feldman, has received checks for over $20,000 in salary and reimbursements. She is the wife of Adam Feldman, a GOP operative from Kentucky who came to NM to take over as executive director of the state GOP and now conducts field operations for the GOP.

In addition, Berry, a GOP state representative from the far NE Heights that includes the Four Hills area has brought back into city politics Jay McCleskey, a a GOP consultant who has played in many of the recent races. The Lincoln Strategy Group that McCleskey, a former regional coordinator for the Republican National Committee, is now associated with was paid around $23,000, according to figures we added up on the city's Web site. Apparently some of that money was spent on an early mail piece. Also, Public Opinion Strategies, a polling firm that McCleskey's wife, Nicole, is a partner with was paid $1,650 by Berry. The candidate also put up over $12,000 for those "volunteers" who blanketed the area this spring to get required donations for Berry to qualify for the ballot. In contrast, Chavez has a bench of city employees and volunteers who work for free.

CHAVEZ ON THE CHEAP


Berry and Romero shelled out major bucks for consulting and staff in the early going, while Chavez paid his campaign manager Mark Fleischer $3,000. He also delayed announcing his candidacy, saving more money. And Marty conducted some $25,000 in polling and robo calls late last year with money he had raised for a statewide race he decided not to pursue. That expenditure did not count against the money given him under the public financing law. Among his city expenditures, the mayor paid $8,000 to Gold Communications, a direct mail firm out of D.C. that also numbers Big Bill among its clients. He also spent about $7,000 on BuzzMaker, an Internet specialty firm that builds Web sites for Dems.

The new campaign money law will make the mayor contest more grassroots, with the campaigns really cranking up relatively inexpensive get out the vote operations. Media is just too broad-based and too costly to do the job. Targeted mailing will be a favorite way to maximize dollars. If only 75,000 or so voters are going to go to the polls, you don't want to be talking to the majority who won't.

The "free" media---newspaper, TV and radio news coverage--is also more limited this cycle. The demise of the ABQ Tribune saw to that. Online media is relevant to the race in how it can shape perceptions (e.g. the Alligators) and help set the agenda for the mainstream media where most voters will get their unpaid campaign info. Also, the candidates may want to be careful about what they saw on their Facebook pages and in their Twitter messages. An off-hand remark could become major news from these new media sources.

MAYORAL MEDIA GAME

The TV stations have not announced any mayoral debates as of yet. I have my media mavens checking and we do expect at least one prime time duel between the three contenders. Chavez is ahead, but it doesn't seem he can risk turning down TV debates. Besides, his long experience makes him favored to win any debate. There will also be the usual bundle of mayoral forums across the city that will likely be sparsely attended, but sometimes covered by the press.

The ABQ Journal, whose editorial pages have long supported Chavez, is expected to endorse him for his third term in a row and fourth overall. The alternative weekly, the Alibi, well-read in the university area, will likely give their editorial nod to Richard Romero. The mother of all endorsements may have been a Christmas present in June for Chavez--AFSCME--the union representing 3,500 city employees for the first time gave him their backing for the mayoral post.

The Chavez challengers have had one big media break with the sensational June 20 murder at a West Side Denny's, but the news flow in the subsequent month has been quiet and therefore favored the incumbent.

WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

Berry
Aside from the Denny's incident and the crime issue it raised, Romero and Berry have struggled to generate issues that elicit emotion and put heat on Chavez. Their most recent foray was into term limits and how Chavez had them overturned---a process issue, but one they hope will get voters to feel tired of Chavez.

The city's troubled economy would appear to be an issue ripe for exploitation, but the pros point out that the turnout for the mayoral election will be heavy on older voters, those with long-term residency and government workers. Those are voting blocs whose economic destiny is not as much at risk as the nonvoting classes. Also, despite high-profile government failures at encouraging private sector development--Eclipse Aviation being the most notable--Chavez has avoided tax increases, employee layoffs and is friendly to the pro-growth forces that have largely held sway over city politics in the post WWII era.

Determining and hammering home an overriding reason for ousting Chavez that resonates with enough voters to keep him from amassing 40 percent and getting him in a run-off election remains the elusive challenge for the challengers. There is time, but what is that reason?

ROMERO DONATES TO BERRY?!

Romero
They had a news conference together earlier in the campaign to complain about Mayor Marty's use of TV public service time. Now it turns out that Dem Richard Romero and Republican Richard ""RJ" Berry go back more years than anyone thought. Records on file at the Sec. of State's office reveal that Romero's congressional campaign committee made a $250 donation to Berry's 2006 legislative race. (House District 20 Oct. 9, 2006 filing). Romero unsuccessfully sought the ABQ congressional seat in 2002 and 2004. He went on to become a Santa Fe lobbyist. Berry is a member of the House Appropriations Committee.

NO PARTY LINES HERE


Another interesting tidbit from those campaign reports filed Friday. Republican Councilor Brad Winter gave $200 to Dem Councilor Michael Cadigan's re-election bid and Winter's wife, attorney Nann Winter, gave the West Side lawmaker $450. R's are making a major push against Cadigan with Dan Lewis, but will apparently have to do it without Winter, the city councilor the party backed for mayor four years ago. Dem Jeremy Toulouse is also in that West of the river contest.

DON THE DODGER

Don Harris
Councilor Don Harris has dodged more bullets than a deer in hunting season, and he dodged another big one late Friday when former ABQ City Councilor and current Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Brasher announced he would abort his short-lived campaign for the far NE Heights seat that Harris first won in 2005. Brasher, a conservative Dem turned R, was and is popular in the district, but he told me that the "district's demographics" have changed substantially since he was first elected to a council seat back in 1989. His county commission seat includes GOP areas in the East Mountains which are not in the city council district. Brasher, longtime manager of ABQ Public Schools radio station KANW 89.1 FM, says he will finish his second four year term on the commission which ends at the end of 2010 and then think about his political future.

As for Republican Harris, he managed to get into a run-off with the incumbent District 9 councilor in '05. He won that race, but soon found himself the target of a rare recall election over ethics charges. But voters overwhelmingly rejected the recall.

Harris still has one more bullet to dodge--David Barbour, a computer programmer who moved here two years ago from the San Francisco area, is on the October 6 ballot. But he is much more liberal than Harris. His campaign platform includes universal health care. Also, Harris has qualified for public financing and has $32,000 to spend. Barbour has so fare collected $2,000, but it's money he loaned himself.

Harris, like several of his council colleagues, has had his ups and downs with ABQ Mayor Chavez. Most recently they have been on the same page.

COUNCIL CAMPAIGN ACTION

Republican Dan Lewis is running a spirited campaign in an effort to unseat incumbent Dem Councilor Michael Cadigan. So far he has spent about $10,000 of the $42,000 of his public financing. Cadigan is not taking public financing and reports raising $16,400 and spending only $800. The Lewis campaign spins that Cadigan's fund-raising has fallen behind his 2005 rate, but attorney Cadigan has heavy name ID. Also, he was raising money earlier in the cycle for his '05 council bid. For much of this year he was running for mayor, not council. He decided to drop the mayoral bid when support did not materialize and go for re-election to the council. He was first elected in 2001. Dem Jeremy Toulouse is also in the race. He raised $1,000.

Cadigan must get 40 percent of the vote to avoid a run-off to stay on the nine member council where he has developed into a harsh critic of Mayor Chavez.

IS IT COOKING?

In the mid-ABQ NE Heights district represented by two term GOP Councilor Sally Mayer, challenger Mike Cook's campaign says Sally, like Cadigan, is running behind her fund-raising pace of four years ago. She has taken in about $5,700 so far this cycle compared to about $15,000 at this time in the '05 cycle. Like Mayer, Cook, a certified financial planner, is a Republican. He qualified for $36,000 in public financing and has spent about $7,000. Most of that went to attorney and political consultant Doug Antoon who is also consulting Republican council candidate Dan Lewis. Sally made some front-page news when it was divulged that she is being sued for a $5,600 bill to Target. But the news cuts both ways in these troubled times when many feel Mayer's pain. But what the heck was she charging at Target that sent the bill so high? Their stuff is just a notch above Wal-Mart prices. Hey, maybe financial planner Mike can help Sally figure it out.

Another closely watched council duel is between Councilor Ike Benton and challenger Alan Armijo, a former councilor who is now in his second terms as a Bernalillo County Commissioner. Armijo is not taking public financing. He raised $8,900 in the early going. $530 of it came from his old friend and longtime politico Steve Gallegos. Benton, also a Dem, is taking public financing and has spent about $3,000. The district includes parts of Downtown, Barelas and the University of New Mexico area.

The only polling we've seen on any of the council races was in Cadigan's district a few months ago and it showed him leading, but with an opening for challenger Lewis to hold him below 40 percent and force a run-off. The polling schedule of the ABQ Journal has not been released. The paper is expected to do at least one mayoral survey, but traditionally does not poll the council races.

We'll have our election night team on October 6 on 89.1 FM KANW to bring you live coverage of the city election.

THE BOTTOM LINES

If you're wandering the halls of the Roundhouse, be on the look out for a guy with a baseball bat who looks pretty angry. That would be Guv candidate Allen Weh:

“When I get to Santa Fe, I’m going to take a baseball bat, and we’re going to clean that place out."

Now Big Bill is a former ace baseball pitcher. He probably can avoid Weh's swinging bat. But we worry about the rest of the gang. Seems it may be time for universal health care if Weh is let loose...

E-mail your news tips and comments and help us cover the wide world of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
 
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