It's starting to remind us of the 1970's around here. That's when double-digit unemployment was common in many counties and the unemployment office was usually backed up and/or broken down. The newest jobless stats say job growth in NM is at a 65 year low. The August unemployment rate has now soared to 7.5 percent, a nearly 13 year high, but the numbers nerds repeat what they have been saying throughout this recession--the measurement appears too low:

Job growth is at a 65-year low, while the unemployment rate is still at only a 12½-year high. Individual data series provide differing readings of the severity of the current downturn. To more accurately gauge local employment conditions, we suggest looking at all the workforce indicators published in this report...

In other words, the unemployment rate is under reported.

For the ABQ area, which includes Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia Counties, the official jobless rate for August climbed to 7.4 percent. If we recall correctly, that is a new high for this Great Recession and one of the highest levels on record. The manufacturing base in ABQ has been clobbered. Overall, we've lost 14,500 jobs over last August. Statewide we've dropped nearly 31,000. Santa Fe is now at 6.3 percent unemployment, a job loss of 2,200 over the year. And that's a government town. The Las Cruces area matches ABQ's 7.4 percent unemployment number.

THIS IS DIFFERENT
Romero
This is a slow, grinding recession and in many ways breathtaking in its scope. We thought we had seen the worst. We're not so sure as jobs continue to disappear. You business owners know how much you are feeling it as traffic slows at your front doors.

In the ABQ mayoral race, Democratic candidate Richard Romero has been the most aggressive in addressing the jobs plight, envisioning a future government structure in which there are far fewer political employees and deputy directors. He also calls on economic planners to switch focus from going after big business to growing small businesses. He wants renewable energy jobs as a centerpiece of a new economy. (He has a five minute video on the local economy posted prominently on his Web site.) State leaders might want to lend him an ear. While avoiding layoffs is admirable, in the long-term it is no substitute for the fundamental restructuring that Santa Fe needs, but which the administration is reluctant to tackle.

BILL'S MIGRAINE

There are, of course, real people behind the jobless numbers. Governor Richardson has been given migraines over the multiple computer screw-ups at the Workforce Solutions Department. He recently named Ken Ortiz as the new director. Ortiz should forget about any vacation for the rest of the year. He has thousands of New Mexicans to serve. He also needs to be thinking about getting enough money to extend unemployment benefits for months at a time. This downturn shows no signs of abating--at least not on the jobs front. If he hasn't already, maybe Bill needs to assign a top aide just to ride herd on the labor agency. Right now, it is arguably the most important one in his cabinet.

THE TOUGH CALLS


We share the wariness of key state Senators like John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith over the gimmick of using short-term bonds to cover the mammoth $433 million shortfall--perhaps more--that the state faces this current budget year. But we also fully see the point of finance secretary Katherine Miller that the alternative to that may be throwing even more people out of work by laying off state employees. However, it's difficult to share Secretary Miller's sentiment that furlough is the other "F" word. There is real suffering going on in the private sector and government employees have no God-given right to be exempt from the pain.

Can the administration and Dr. No and Representative Lucky Varela find room for compromise? How about if the Guv entertains furloughs and reduced hours (starting with the highest paid employees) but legislators take layoffs off the table? Then, how about if Dr. No and Company agree with the Guv that we issue some short term "sponge" bonds, but not $135 million?

New Mexicans are tired--many are very scared--and they want compromise, not a body count, when the Governor calls lawmakers into special session to deal with the crisis.

SHOW ME THE MONEY

It got sticky for GOP mayoral hopeful RJ Berry this week when Mayor Chavez and Dem Richard Romero agreed to release their recent tax returns, but Berry refused. Marty says in '08 he took in his $107,000 mayoral salary and over $5,000 in royalties from three oil companies (We're waiting for Romero's numbers). Chavez stuck it to Berry for his refusal and Berry's campaign came back with this:

...Berry has complied with all transparency requirements required by...and has disclosed his sources of income on the candidate financial disclosure statement...Chavez wants Berry to release tax returns that include personal information pertaining to his family. This is not required by law and Berry’s family members are not running for mayor, therefore he will not subject his family to this invasion of privacy...

But it was KKOB-AM radio that issued the tax return challenge, not Chavez. One can understand Berry's reluctance over releasing tax info and we don't recall candidate tax returns being released in past mayoral campaigns. But this is a game of political poker. Romero and Chavez anted up. RJ didn't and he got dealt out.

A GIRL NAMED MARIA
Maria & RJ
And Berry finally addressed the implication in Chavez's attack piece (see Monday's blog) that Berry is hiding behind the skirts of his wife--Maria--because she is the actual owner of Cumbre Construction--and as an Hispanic qualified for nearly $50 million in contracts under the federal government's minority and women owned business program. RJ told KKOB radio's Jim Villanucci Maria is not a front for him. That she has a solid work record of her own and that Cumbre represents "twenty years of blood sweat and tears."

Maria is the owner. I am the chief operating officer. Maria started in 1996..She is a licensed general contractor. I joined her. I was working for a large construction firm. I quit my job to join her...She runs the company...She is there every day...a lot of midnights..and 80 hour weeks. Maria started working with me back in the 80's. She worked part-time for almost a decade..What we have here is a political machine and mayor who knows he is is losing on the issues.

According to this article, Maria (Medina) Berry worked for state government as an income support specialist before getting into the construction business full-time.

Berry also released records showing that RJ Berry Enterprises, Inc. has generated income and paid taxes. That's the business consulting firm that Chavez said had no sales and no income. Marty uses it to debunk Berry's TV ad that says he is a "successful businessman." The records show that Berry paid about $7,000 in state taxes from RJ Berry Enterprises over two years. (Records posted here.) The Berry campaign says that makes Chavez's claim that the business had "no income" factually incorrect.

This all started when Berry cut that TV ad calling himself a successful businessman, clearly meaning his involvement with Cumbre Construction. Maria has actual ownership of the company, though the pair work together. But Chavez's campaign focused on a business listed as being owned by RJ Berry, not Maria, and saw state records that appeared to show it was largely dormant. The Chavez hit piece implied that it was that business that Berry was talking about on his TV ad--not Cumbre--so how could Berry label himself a success? Berry was then supposed to be embarrassed into acknowledging that Cumbre was minority-owned, how it was all a sham just so he could get construction contracts meant for minority owned businesses and that he wasn't a successful businessman after all.

A CAMPAIGN THEME SONG

Got all that? If not, relax and join us in honoring Maria's entry onto the brighly lit stage of La Politica. For your listening enjoyment, here's "Maria," from Westside Story. RJ, you can sing it to your bride.

THEY SAW THIS ONE

Just as our Alligators get done saying "cap and trade" may not pose as much of a threat to southern NM Dem congressman Harry Teague as some Eastern pundits think, comes the news that the only New Mexico company listed on the New York Stock Exchange--PNM Resources--announces it is dropping out of the GOP-oriented US Chamber of Commerce:

We strongly disagree with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's position on climate change legislation and particularly reject its recent theatrics calling for a 'Scopes Monkey Trial' to put the science of climate change on trial. We believe the science is compelling enough to act sooner rather than later, and we support comprehensive federal legislation to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect customers against unreasonable cost increases.

Who do you think the PAC for PNM will be giving money to? Harry Teague?

THE BIT PLAYERS
Wilson
Bit players continue to play in the below-the-radar race for the 2010 NM GOP Guv nomination, but the heavyweights remain on the sidelines waiting for Heather Wilson to make a move. The latest example is the endorsement of Allen Weh by former GOP state Senator Steve Komadina. That came in response to Susana Martinez's endorsement from Jack Fortner, a Farmington attorney who was appointed to the University of New Mexico Board of Regents by Democrat Big Bill.

Just about all the big names with financial firepower as well as the state's elected Republicans remain sidelined. However, if the bit players are delegates to the pre-primary convention next March their endorsements will help the candidates in their efforts to get the 20 percent of the convention delegates necessary to get on the June primary ballot.

THE REAL DEAL

A lively one hour prime time TV debate had the three mayoral hopefuls hopscotching through the major issues of the day, testing their knowledge, poise and ability to think quickly in a way rarely seen on the daily campaign trail. All three vindicated themselves, but the goal of the challengers to change the fundamental path of the contest came up short. We ended where we started--an earnest RJ Berry holding on to his Republican base, an animated Richard Romero exciting his and a well-prepared Mayor Chavez protecting his from any raids. (Full video here. Newspaper coverage here.)

If there was a defining moment in the KOB-TV debate, it may have come in the back and forth over whether ABQ is a "Sanctuary City." RJ Berry asked Mayor Chavez why city police do not adopt the more aggressive policy of the Bernalillo County Sheriff in ferreting out possible illegal immigrants when they make arrests. Chavez quickly responded by enumerating how murder, auto theft and other crimes have risen dramatically in the areas where the tougher policy is in effect. Besides blowing a big hole in Berry's argument, it exposed the soft underbelly of the Republican strategy--in working to take out Chavez, they are seeking almost exclusively Republican votes which will make up less than a third of the turnout October 6.

Berry's continued tough talk on immigration signaled to analysts that he was not making a play for Hispanics and independents in the final days, reducing the threat that he will be able to grow beyond the low 30's on Election Night.

The Alligator consensus has Berry in second place in this battle, and Democrat Richard Romero seemed to know it. He worked hard to upend Chavez, but it was no easy task. He hammered the mayor over raiding funds meant to improve roads and parks to balance the city's regular operating budget. But Chavez twice pointed out how the city budget was "approved unanimously" by the city council.

Romero's most effective moment and Chavez's weakest came when Romero scoffed at Chavez's contention that the city had built a strong private sector economy and that it has helped ABQ weather the recession. Romero rattled off the list of companies that have announced layoffs in the past year--"Comcast, Eclipse, GE, Advent." He sounded like the high school principal he once was, but he may have forgotten one lesson--keep pounding the point.

In the latter part of the hour broadcast live from the ABQ Academy, Berry scored points when he argued for term limits, reinforcing the most effective part of his campaign TV spot that mentions Chavez. Berry was the fresh face on the stage and the one best positioned to take advantage of the anti-incumbent contingent in the electorate. "What is he going to accomplish in 16 years that he hasn't in 12?" queried Berry, delivering the money line that has been the most potent for him.

But what the NE Heights state representative gained, he lost when Chavez tore into him for not agreeing to release his tax returns. Chavez and Romero have agreed to the request, but Berry, who operates a construction company with his wife, demurred. He pointed out that he filled out the required city forms detailing where he gets his income. But Chavez pounced like a hungry cheetah.

"I know it's not comfortable, but the public has a right to now. That's open and transparent government." Chavez nearly gloated.

Like the Sanctuary City issue, the tax return matter did not help Berry with independents. He must be stewing over it. There was Marty Chavez, previously mired in the ABQPAC scandal, the airport observation deck scandal, the recent Bode aviation pay-to-play charges and he was grabbing the high ground on ethics. Chavez had to relish the moment as much as Berry dreaded it.

THE MEDIA BEAT

The TV face-off was the one and only chance for ABQ voters to get an unfiltered look at the candidates on one of the big network affiliates. We sometimes shudder when we hear of remote broadcasts in the NM market as they have often been hobbled by technical glitches that disrupt the proceedings. But that was not the case last night. The production went off without a hitch and was visually appealing with the candidates cast against a blue backdrop. The signature of KOB-TV political debates in recent years is to have the moderators not get in the way of the main event. Anchors Tom Joles and Nicole Brady carried on that tradition, throwing out what seemed a constant stream of questions and requests for rebuttal, but not needlessly interjecting themselves or interrupting for annoying station promotions. Nicely done.

MORE MAYOR MEDIA BEAT

RJ Berry was thrown a break by the ABQ Journal in its coverage of Mayor Chavez's attack of Berry's assertion that he is a "successful businessman." The paper picked up on the Chavez mail piece first blogged here Monday, but did not go into detail over the ownership of Cumbre Construction, the company that Berry operates with his wife Maria, who is the owner. The Journal notes that Cumbre benefitted from its status as a "woman owned" enterprise. They did not say "minority and woman owned," leaving alone the Chavez implication that Berry was using his Hispanic wife to get federal contracts.

There's a bunch of campaign hit mail now circulating as the campaign nears its peak. It looks like the Journal has gathered up most of the hits and comes with this review.

EVEN MORE MAYOR MEDIA BEAT

The Alibi says Mayor Marty is played out and it's time for Mayor Romero. The liberal weekly, which circulates heavily the University of New Mexico area, also endorsed city council candidates Ike Benton, Don Harris and Michael Cadigan. The ABQ Journal will probably come with its endorsement this Sunday and Chavez is favored to get it.

TEAGUE OR NO TEAGUE?
Rep. Teague
We're detecting quite a split in opinion between the East coast and observers here on the ground on the importance of the climate change bill on the southern congressional race featuring incumbent Dem Harry Teague and Republican challenger Steve Pearce. Many Eastern analysts we've read see Teague's vote for a "cap and trade" measure as putting him near death's door when it comes to his re-election chances, but analysts and Alligators here on the ground don't see it as clear cut.

A most recent example from the East is the analysis from the ABQ Journal Washington bureau reporter Michael Coleman who termed it a "questionable political decision" for Teague to attend a D.C. fundraiser co-hosted by Rep. Henry Waxman, the California Dem who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee and is an ardent liberal backer of cap and trade. Coleman is right that it is "questionable," but the answer to the question does not necessarily cut against the freshman lawmaker.

Democrat analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides, who has worked the Southern district, does not see the cap and trade issue as the make and break vote for Teague. He says that vote will be the one Teague casts on the public option in a national health care plan. He expects Teague to vote nay.

"The cap and trade vote is rallying the Republican base, but it will be difficult to extend it district wide. If I were Teague I would cast it as a vote that was good for the country and the future--a patriotic approach. He is an oil man and that will also give him cover. The votes that he will lose on cap and trade are already for Pearce. His attending that Waxman fund-raiser could result in goodies for Teague--for example, better committee assignments down the road and more federal goodies for his district," Analyzed Pavlides.

Pavlides sees the Teague-Pearce race being decided in the Dona Ana County area, not in the southeastern oil counties. He says that it is extremely unlikely Pearce will be able to get more than 65 percent of the vote against an incumbent US congressman in the SE and sees the race going to populous Dona Ana where cap and trade is not necessarily a dirty phrase. He also pooh-poohs the notion of a voter uprising against Teague in that county that gave him a 15,000 plus vote win in 2008. The "Tea Parties" and other protests are drawing from the Republican and conservative base, not expanding it, Pavlides argues, and sites national polling to back up his contention.

"The question is turnout, especially among Hispanics. Teague can withstand the cap and trade controversy. What you are seeing unfold is a Democratic strategy of building Teague up in Dona Ana. The energy secretary visited there recently and the secretary of agriculture has a visit scheduled. You are going to see more and more of this, probably culminating with a visit by President Obama in the final days of the election. They are not sending these folks to the conservative counties because that's not where the election is going to be decided." Opined Pavlides.

For sure, some powerful stuff will be coming Harry Teague's way. That's how it is when your party controls the White House and United States Congress. R's have done an excellent job in raising expectations for Pearce, but veteran voices here are saying Teague is headed for a heated scrap, but is far from being on life-support.

PRC FOLLOW-UP

That southern race for the Public Regulation Commission made news this week when incumbent Sandy Jones signaled he will seek the Dem nod for state land commissioner, leaving the PRC after one term. We listed former PRC commissioner Tony Schaefer of Las Cruces as a possible candidate for the Jones seat, but Schaefer tells us: "I am not running."

We erred when we called Tony a Republican. He was an R when he won a PRC back in the 90's but later became a Dem and he says he remains one today. Former Dem Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley wants to run for the Jones seat and is expected to make a formal announcement soon.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

If they're doing it in New York, why not New Mexico? The aggressiveness of the White House political arm was on full display this week as it moved to persuade unpopular Dem NY Governor David Paterson to abandon re-election plans. Paterson is resisting, but the point for those of us 2,000 miles away is that Obama is not being shy about delving into internal state politics. Which brings us to Big Bill.

The Doubting Thomases say he's too hot to handle for a foreign policy appointment that would get him out of the state and dramatically improve the Dems chances of keeping the Guv's chair here as Light Guv Denish would immediately be named to succeed him. They argue his ethics shadow is too long and that, besides, the Dems are well-positioned to take the Governor's office without any added machinations.

But the Thomases aren't seeking re-election in 2012. Obama is. Anything he can do to improve his chances in a key swing state like New Mexico is on the table--including moving Richardson out. In fact, it would seem Bill's odds for getting something from Obama may be better while he is governor. Giving him something after his term ends nets the White House much less politically.

BILL AND THE BUDGET
For the Governor, a one way ticket out of the state is looking like a trip he could enjoy. He may be able to hold off the economic forces pummeling the state for a couple of more months, but not for more than a year. Having Denish make the painful cuts necessary to restructure the government for leaner times may look appealing.

The Governor insists on no layoffs, no furloughs and no cuts in education. And much of that may be possible for the current budget year which will be addressed in the special session in October, but the administration is looking the other way when it comes to long term trends for the New Mexican economy. Richardson is being slowly painted in a corner by the collapse in state revenues and he is setting himself up for a bloody fight if he clings to his pre-bubble economic notions. Gimmicks like "sponge bonds" to close the mammoth budget gap are only going to get you so far. All the more reason for Bill to hope that the White House's meddling in state political affairs extends to New Mexico and to him.

GETTING ORNERY
Arnold-Jones
Irritation is growing in the Republican ranks over Heather Wilson. The former ABQ GOP Congresswoman is essentially freezing fund-raising for the already announced Guv candidates by refusing to say whether she will make a run of her own for the 2010 Guv nod. A supporter of ABQ State Representative and Guv candidate Janice Arnold-Jones e-mails:

Heather Wilson cannot beat Diane Denish, so why are you suggesting that she is the only R that's a viable candidate? Your doing so only reinforces the notion that only incumbents are welcome and newcomers need not even try. It's 99% about money, and your fawning over Heather Wilson only keeps the money from coming to the candidates that need it.

We've said Wilson, 48, is probably the R's strongest potential candidate for 2010, but that is a view we are getting from top R's and not the result of any "fawning" over her. She'd snicker if she heard that considering that some of her closest supporters have long been some of our most vociferous critics.

The Alligators gaming this race report in that it is Allen Weh, 66, who most benefits from Wilson sitting on the fence. The ABQ businessman is expected to self-finance his campaign from his personal fortune and doesn't need to be raising big bucks, but Arnold-Jones, Susana Martinez and Doug Turner do.

Wilson and Weh are close. She was instrumental in getting him named NM GOP Chairman in 2004. His CSI Aviation has been the beneficiary of millions in government contracts stemming in part from the war in Iraq. For Weh, the ideal outcome would be Wilson waiting until January to announce that she is not getting in the race. If she got in, he could be expected to get out and back her. If she didn't, she would have frozen contributions to Weh's foes, shortening the time they have to catch up to Weh. Is that called having your cake and eating it, too?

JACK'S NOT BACK

Back in June of 2007 we blogged about Farmington Republican and University of New Mexico Board of Regent member Jack Fortner toying with the idea of a GOP Guv run, but insiders say it appears he will not run and instead support fellow attorney and Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez. San Juan County is heavy R, but Fortner's relationship with Big Bill, who appointed him to the UNM Regents, does not help him with many hardcore R's. An R insider says former Farmington area state Rep. Dick Cheney, who lost the 1994 GOP Guv nod to Gary Johnson, is also going to support Martinez for the GOP Guv nod. But will that support translate into money? That's the question and the problem, isn't it?

SANDY'S FOOTPRINTS
Jones
Rancher and Public Regulation Commission Chairman Sandy Jones wants a greener political pasture--and perhaps a less controversial one--so he's leaving his southern PRC seat to make a run for the 2010 Democratic nomination for state Land Commissioner.

The Jones entry, reported by Las Cruces reporter Heath Haussamen, complicates matters for ABQ's Ray Powell, a former ten year commissioner who has announced another bid for the Dem nod after losing to Jim Baca in 2006. Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid has toyed with running as well, but nothing firm yet. Meanwhile, the names of other possible Hispanic Dems are floating. Espanola Mayor Joe Maestas, a recent drop-out from the Dem Light Guv race, is said to be weighing a bid as is Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya.

Alligator analysis says a conservative Dem like Jones will appeal to the oil and gas industry which has enjoyed the eight year tenure of Pat Lyons who is term-limited and seeking the other southern Public Regulation Commission seat in 2010. On the GOP side, Bob Cornelius of Lea County and Errol Chavez of Dona Ana are in, but neither has yet received support from oil and gas, traditionally a major player in the land office contest.

Besides wanting to branch out politically, Jones may want to escape the PRC because it has become a political cesspool for just about everyone there. Jones took a hit recently for hiring a twice convicted felon as an executive assistant, an issue that he recently told me he thought was overblown, but one we will hear about if he wins the nomination.

REPLACING SANDY
McCamley and Baca
Jones beat PRC Commissioner E. Shirley Baca in the 2006 Dem primary after she was busted in 2004 for pot possession at the ABQ airport. The charges were dropped. Word has been circulating recently that Baca was considering running against Jones in 2010. However, former Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, who says he will get in the PRC race as soon as Jones makes his exit official, says he has spoken with Baca and she has told him she will not run.

But that won't quiet the speculation about getting a Hispanic Dem in the contest, especially one from Las Cruces like Baca. Cruces and vicinity will be ground zero in the southern congressional battle between Dem incumbent Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce. A Hispanic PRC nominee out of Cruces could help Teague spike the vote that was so critical to his win two years ago. The plot thickens when you throw in the fact that McCamley challenged Teague for the Dem primary nomination two years ago and narrowly lost.

The district performs Dem so that party's nominee will have the leg up going into the general election.

THE CRASH CONTINUES

No, the bottom has not been reached in Santa Fe real estate:

Developer Don Tishman is planning an auction of 24 condominiums in his Zocalo residential project on the northeast side of Santa Fe.

The auction features units with starting bids as low as $90,000 on homes previously priced at up to $365,000.

ROMERO RADIO

Dem ABQ mayoral candidate Richard Romero has decided against TV spots so far, but he is up with radio. In one spot, he calls for the city to encourage small business development over big fish like failed Eclipse Aviation. In another he calls for putting more cops on the streets and cites "horrific" crime images that have made national news.

A Romero insider says internal polling shows Mayor Chavez below the 40% required to avoid a run-off election. That would not be that unusual. Chavez usually bumps up against the 40% mark before a final surge puts him over. But the hope for the field is that he is not pulling away, keeping hope alive for that run-off. The Journal is in the field this week and is expected to come with its one and only poll of the race this Sunday.

KOB-TV will host the major debate of the mayoral season tonight at 9 p.m. The three candidates will go at it for an hour. The debate will be simulcast on 770 KKOB-AM radio which asked the candidates Tuesday to release their tax returns: Chavez agreed:

All three mayoral candidates received a request from KKOB-AM for personal state and federal tax returns. Mayor Martin J. Chavez’ tax returns, as requested, have been provided by his CPA and are being delivered to the radio station.

We'll have live Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM starting at 6:30 p.m. October 6 and we'll have a pre-game show at 5 p.m. Monday also on KANW.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From the Guv:

Governor Richardson announced the winner of the inaugural Governor’s Green Chile Cheeseburger Challenge. Badlands Burgers, of Grants beat out 19 other contestants in the cook-off challenge, which was staged on the State Fairgrounds.

“It is my pleasure to award Badlands Burgers with the prestigious title of Best Green Chile Cheeseburger in New Mexico,” Governor Richardson said to a significant crowd of onlookers during the award presentation immediately following the cook-off.

Well, they call hamburger the poor man's steak, and with the state budget being what it is, this is one contest appropriate to the times.

E-mail your news and comments, anonymously if you wish.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Steve Pearce
For Steve Pearce it's the money poll that counts at this early stage of the 2010 campaign. The former southern GOP US Rep. will try to move the needle on that tonight in ABQ as he is feted at a major fund-raiser at the ABQ home of John Sanchez, the 2002 GOP Guv nominee, a roofing contractor who will bring in the heavy financial hitters. (Minimum contribution $250). Pearce'a numbers in his first money report that will cover the July thru September quarter will be closely watched. Pearce announced July 5 that he would challenge freshman Dem US Rep. Harry Teague.

Bringing back Pearce is the R's best bet for taking a congressional seat in NM next year. But it won't be easy. We are already hearing rumblings from some R's that Pearce's torch doesn't burn quite as bright because in 2008 he gave up the southern House seat to make an ill-fated run for US Senate.

Pearce this week will also tap into some of that oil money he is so familiar with. Oilman Fred Yates is among those on the host committee for a Pearce fund-raiser in Roswell Saturday night.

HEATHER AND STEVE

Among those on the host committee for the Sanchez fund-raiser tonight is former ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson who waged battle against Pearce for the US senate nomination last year and lost. But Steve was throwing kisses to Heather in a recent Roll Call article. Speaking of her possibly running for the 2010 GOP Guv nod, he opined:

It would be nice if we had someone running with a better ID,” he said. “If Heather runs, it definitely runs our chances up the flagpole. I think we’ve got good candidates. The problem is name ID. That’s an expensive problem to solve.”

It sure is, but Steve has an equally expensive problem. Raising the millions needed to compete against fellow oil multi-millionaire Teague. He has never liked to spend his own money on a campaign, but this one is different and he told Roll Call the cobwebs could come off his wallet:

Pearce said it is his preference not to spend any of his own money on the campaign, but said he would not dismiss the possibility.

The pestering of Pearce to spend personal funds will only grow if he falls too far behind Teague who spent $1.5 million of his own money in 2008 and who has nearly $600,000 stockpiled for '10.

IT'S A GIRL

Get out the pink for GOP Guv candidate Doug Turner. Monday this news broke in response to my e-mail inquiry on whether there was another Turner on the planet:

Now there is another Turner in the world!! 6 lbs 9 oz baby girl born today at Presbyterian at 4:45! No name yet. Everyone healthy! Whew...

That "whew" was prompted in part by the baby's late arrival. The Turners, the parents of a son, had expected the newcomer over a week ago. Needless to say, Doug, 40, reports the campaign trail will be without him for a while. Do you think Allen Weh can be godfather and Susana Martinez godmother??

QUIET, BUT EFFECTIVE

Looking to impede any surge to RJ Berry among ABQ's sizable Republican voting block, Mayor Marty Chavez is on the offensive, attacking Berry on several fronts, the most prominent being a mailer that questions Berry's honesty in how he portrays himself as a businessman.

The Chavez campaign got clever with their hit. They never mention their main point--that it is Berry's wife--Maria Medina--who is listed as sole owner of the family's Cumbre Construction and that it is her Hispanic heritage that makes possible the firm qualifying as a minority owned business and garnering millions in government contracts.

In fact, the hit piece never mentions Cumbre Construction. What the campaign does do is dig up a Public Regulation Commission record listing Berry, an ABQ state House representative, as owner of RJ Berry Enterprises, Inc. a company that has been inactive for ten years.

"...A construction company that hasn't built anything in over 10 years--No Sales, No Income, No employees, No Office...How can Berry claim to be a successful business owner when his business isn't doing any business?" Blasts the hit piece which can be fully viewed here.

On the campaign trail Berry cites Cumbre Construction as his main business activity. He does not mention the inactive company cited by Chavez. Berry describes Cumbre as "family owned." So is the candidate hiding behind his wife's skirts and acting with duplicity to qualify for big contracts as Chavez infers? His campaign was not commenting on Sunday, perhaps waiting to see if the hit piece gets any legs in the mainstream media.

On Feb. 24 of this year we first reported on how the Berry business was organized.

From 2000 to 2007 Berry's construction company was awarded $48 million in Defense Department contracts for work at military bases including Kirtland, Holloman and Cannon. For example, in 2003, the company received $14 million for defense work; in 2006, $7 million. However, in 2007, that amount shriveled to $607,000. The business is classified as "Hispanic American" owned. The firm was recently ranked #465 on Hipsanic Magazine's list of the 500 largest US Hispanic owned companies.

THE STRATEGY ROOM
Chavez
Republican support for Chavez has been key in the mayor's three wins. Berry's campaign strategy seems focused on Republicans--getting them to vote in a block and getting Chavez below 40%, setting up a November run-off election between the two top vote-getters. Chavez's campaign says his mailer attacking Berry's business credentials was sent solely to Republican households.

Over the years, city Republicans have broken late in the cycle and usually for one of their own, but Chavez has always held on to his share. The ABQ Journal is in the field this week and will release a mayoral poll of Chavez, Berry and Dem Richard Romero this Sunday.

MORE HITS

Chavez, saving the bulk of his $328,000 in public financing for a final stretch assault, is also working Berry over in a new radio spot. It featured Joey Sigala, president of the ABQ police Officers Association, who tackles Berry for saying that, under Chavez ABQ has become a "sanctuary city."

"Tel the Truth, RJ...You're misleading us on purpose...ABQ is not a sanctuary city..." smacks Sigala. APOA has endorsed Chavez.

ROMANCING THE HEIGHTS

Even as Chavez was warning R's in the ABQ NE Heights about Berry, he was taking a positive tack in trying to win their votes. He came with a mailer that said:

"Mayor Chavez has always stood up for the residents of the Northeast Heights and fought to make our neighborhoods safe and a great part of ABQ to live in!"

Again, the name of the game for Chavez is to prevent a waterfall defection of his R supporters to the Berry camp, increasing the odds of a dreaded run-off election.

TAX POLL UPDATE

That polling passed on to us last week gauging ABQ voter support for renewing the quarter cent tax for transit and road projects got sloppy in the translation. Approval in the survey of registered voters sponsored by a group supporting the tax was not running at 65%, but at 42%. Against was at 33%, with 25% undecided.

That's a different picture than first painted, but the salient point is that the tax, first approved for 10 years in 1999, is passing. Tonight the ABQ City Council will take up a resolution that would make clear that the tax, if renewed, would be for another ten year period and not be permanent. There has been no paid media opposing the tax and if none of significance surfaces, we expect the early polling showing it winning to play out on Election Night.

DI BY THE NUMBERS

There is an air of inevitability about Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish securing the 2010 Democrat gubernatorial nomination, but not an air of invincibility. That take was reinforced over the weekend as the ABQ Journal came with its first poll of Denish in the 2010 cycle, pegging her statewide approval rating at 52%, but pointedly revealed that 28% of the state's voters either can't identify her or don't know enough about her to have an opinion.

It was the first nonpartisan public poling of Denish, 60, released since this Web site site--NM Politics With Joe Monahan--commissioned a professional poll of Denish in the state's two largest counties--Bernalillo and Dona Ana in October of 2008. It struck us that a year ago in our poll Denish's approval rating in big Bernalillo stood at 50.4% and 30% of the votes had no opinion of her. In other words, not much appears to have changed for Denish in building name ID in the past year, even as she has frenetically campaigned from Aztec to Anthony. Getting press and TV time remains the province of the state's #1--not #2-- and that's what ultimately moves the numbers--one way or another.

THE TIE THAT BINDS
Di & Bill
That her approval rating mimics Big Bill's--he comes in at 51% in the Sept. 8 thru 10 poll--shows how closely voter perceptions of her remain tied to the performance of the Governor. She has work to do to carve out her own political identity before the Republicans do the job for her. But how far does Di need to stray? Her standing above the crucial 50% mark will likely keep her pace to separate herself from Richardson on a cautious course. She is also polling well with Hispanics, the nominating constituency of the Democratic party and one that has given her headaches in the past. She has to be heartened by that as she looks over her shoulder at any surprise Hispanic nominating challenge.

CHALLENGE OR NOT?

There is still talk of that Hispanic challenge of Denish for the Dem nod, but not with much urgency. State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez has not helped himself with his Hamlet-like approach to the question. Insiders now say his best hope would be to put up his personal money--he's a successful attorney--to make the challenge. But there seems little enthusiasm for it within the party. Di's over 50% approval rating is going to make any opposition that more difficult and politically questionable. The question will linger until the end of the year.

REPUBLICAN HOPES

Denish's approval rating signals to the R's that they will need a strong candidate to take her out. They will argue that Denish isn't going much above the 52% approval mark, that the 30% of the electorate undecided about her would likely split like those who have already formed an opinion. That means they need only drag her down a handful of points to get in contention. But they will need a candidate who appeals to the broad center to do it and that could well lead back to talk of getting ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in the race. She is the candidate most feared by the Denish camp, which is fervently praying that the R's come with a candidate similar to that of John Dendahl who led the GOP disaster of 2006 when Richardson scored 69% against him--the largest Guv win in state history.

Denish has nearly $2 million in cash on hand. If she avoids a primary battle, as seems likely, most of that money will be available for the general election contest. It will be very expensive for any of the unknown GOP challengers to get known. The well-known Wilson could raise money quickly, if not in sums equal to Denish.

BILL'S COMEBACK

And the adventure continues for Bill Richardson. The guy performs worst when he is disengaged or bored, but give him something to fight for and look out. So it is with his latest climb back up the approval ratings ladder. And it is a climb. Remember, the Journal has not been polling for the past year, but SurveyUSA has and had the Guv reaching a low point of 42% earlier this year as the pay-to- play investigation dominated the headlines. That scandal forced Bill to withdraw his nomination to become Obama's Commerce Secretary.

(SurveyUSA also came with a late August poll that flew under our radar. It showed Bill getting 55% approval. Part of the survey was taken just as the news was being released that Richardson and his top aides would not face indictments in the CDR scandal.)

In the aftermath of his national humiliation the Guv got angry and depressed. Then he did what he does best--he started campaigning. A trip to Rome to see the Pope and statewide travel to promote the federal stimulus money were among the moves that made the 51% approval possible. Sure, that's down from his high point in the low 60's, but in this economic and political climate and after being written off for dead, it can be fairly labeled a political triumph. Pollster Brian Sanderoff noted that for any New Mexico governor to be above 50% after serving seven years in office is notable. No argument here.

LOOKING AHEAD

The White House will now see that Richardson, whose name again is surfacing for a possible high-level appointment like envoy to Cuba, is back from the semi-dead. They will also see that while Denish is positioned, she is not yet a shoo-in to win this state that Obama wants in his column in 2012. That could make the political advisers think more about a scenario for appointing Richardson to a diplomatic post while he is still governor. That in turn would make Denish governor and put to rest the worry about whether she has a glass jaw.

The incumbency, even in troubled times such as these, would provide Di with a tremendous advantage going forward, especially against the current field of unknown GOP challengers. Surely, the shake-up scenario must look to the national Dem power brokers like a juicy peach ready to be picked. But anything involving Richardson comes with intrigue. That's why it's always interesting.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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