GOP governor candidate Doug Turner will know soon enough whether his decision to unveil TV spots on Thanksgiving Day was a turkey. He says he will do follow-up polling to measure the impact of the commercials unveiled on Thursday on statewide cable and which he says will be on at least until the end of the year. (Video here.)

The TV--coming nearly a full year before the 2010 election--is the earliest veteran observers can recall for a governor’s race. Presumed Dem nominee Diane Denish is appearing more frequently in public service TV ads, but has not yet aired any campaign spots.

Turner, 40, is making his first bid for elective office. His 60 second spot centers on his biography as a business and family man. He owns an ABQ public relations firm. He also makes use of his previous foray into politics, noting that he served as a key aide to the election bids of GOP Guv Gary Johnson in 1994 and ‘98. Turner does not identify himself as a Republican in his TV, even though he is seeking the GOP nomination.

"We are going on the air to build name ID and let people know who I am," Turner said.

Turner believes the audience can tell from the ads that he is a Republican, especially since he references Johnson's Guv wins.

He will also air 30 second and 15 second versions of the bio spot. The buy will be about $10,000 a week or about $40,000 to $50,000. He says the ads will also air on broadcast TV, but the main buy is on cable. Turner recently loaned his campaign over $200,000.

Whether Turner will stay up on the air after this initial run is undecided. The GOP pre-primary convention is expected to be held in mid-March. That's where it will take 20 percent of the delegates to win a spot on the June primary ballot.

THE RACE TO DATE

The field so far also includes former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh, Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez and ABQ State Rep. Janice-Arnold-Jones. 2002 GOP Guv candidate John Sanchez told me recently he was weighing a run. Other names are also being mentioned as possible candidates before the final GOP field is set.

The GOP race rapidly deflated when former ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson decided not to make the run. She was seen as the party's best bet to take on Lt. Governor Denish, the only announced Dem Guv contender. Sanchez floated his name after Heather demurred.

Turner's main challenge is getting the 20 percent at the pre-primary. He is not as well-known or as connected with party insiders as his foes. No candidate who has failed to get on the ballot at the pre-primary has gone on to win the nomination.

Insiders, wall-leaners, Alligators and analysts see Weh as the early front-runner because his demographic profile--an Anglo male with heavy military and business experience--best matches the make up of the small GOP. He also has no financial worries. He is using his personal wealth to finance his campaign. Martinez, with backing from national Republican types in D.C., is seen as Weh's main rival. Fund-raising is one of her main challenges.

Turner wants to upset this early conventional wisdom and begin to break the race open. He is gambling that the Turkey Day TV will help him do the trick.

THE NEW MAYOR
Berry with son (Journal)
He likes to hunt and fish, do some woodworking, plays the guitar but not very well, has a Jack Russell terrier named Skip and is a season ticket-holder to University of New Mexico football and basketball games. During a recent interview Mayor-elect Richard "RJ" Berry said of his family: "We're very much regular folks. Berry married Maria Medina in 1990. They have a 13 year old son, Jacob.

Berry, 47, will take the oath of office at the ABQ convention center ballroom downtown at 6 p.m. Tuesday. Also being sworn into office for four year terms will be City Councilors Ken Sanchez, Ike Benton, Dan Lewis, Michael Cook and Don Harris. They were all elected or re-elected along with Berry in the October city election.

The inauguration is open to the public and a reception will immediately follow. Maybe if they need music at the reception Berry can whip out the Fender Stratocaster he keeps hidden away in his spare bedroom.

The Berry transition team has announced no other inaugural events.

NO COO FOR NOW

A suggestion made here by the Alligators--that Berry not hire a chief operating officer to save money--will be taken up by the new administration--at least for now. New city hall spokesman Chris Ramirez says the COO position will not be immediately filled. It will be determined next year if it is needed. The position is one of those paying well over $100,000 a year.

Current chief administrative officer Ed Adams was being mentioned for the post. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. My City Hall insiders said City Councilor Debbie O'Malley went ballistic when she heard that Berry was considering naming Adams COO. Not only did she publicly complain, but our sources report she took her concerns directly to Berry and told him that if Adams was shifted to the COO post, the mayor-elect's nomination of David Campbell as the city's chief administrative officer would be put in danger when it comes up for a council vote.

THE OLD MAYOR

It is indeed out with the old and in with the new as 12 year ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez--the man Berry upset---prepares for private life. KOB-TV did an interesting exit interview with the 57 year old Chavez who seems undecided about what his future may hold.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We gave a wrong number Wednesday in blogging on the median sale price of an ABQ home. It recently fell below $180,000 to $170,000.

US Senator Tom Udall is touting his new Web site, and it does look pretty spiffy, incorporating all the new bells and whistles of the Internet circa 2009. The Democratic lawmaker says: "I'll even give you a tour of the Web site."

The first year lawmaker is the envy of the three freshman congressmen. They all have to stand for re-election in what may be a very hostile environment next year. Udall doesn't face voters again until 2014. Now that's something to give thanks for.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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Not that there isn't plenty to be thankful for. New Mexico's eternal gifts--its beauty, culture and climate--continue to delight year after year and generation after generation. But this is a year when more corporeal concerns dominate the thoughts of New Mexicans. Like jobs--and whether theirs will be at risk. Like taxes--and whether they'll have to pay more to shore up huge government deficits. Like the financial markets--and their impact on their retirement plans. And just below their radar lurks the disturbing pay-to-pay culture that has poisoned state politics. It's enough to give a turkey a headache.

Antoon & White
Here's an interesting twist. The campaign consultant who helped elect new ABQ GOP city Councilors Dan Lewis and Michael Cook and who now are opposing GOP Mayor-elect RJ Berry on a key appointment to his administration, wants to join the ranks of elected officials. And that's not all. Republican consultant and attorney Doug Antoon says he wants the ABQ legislative seat that RJ gave up when he became mayor. He will run against recently appointed Rep. Jim White who Berry favored as his replacement.As you may know, the three Republican city councilors--Winter, Lewis and Cook--have been livid that CAO-designate David Campbell, a longtime land use lawyer, has not submitted answers to their questions about what they see as potential conflicts of interest. Well, Campbell has now done that and then some.

The Alligators sent us this memo from Campbell that is now in the hands of the dissident trio. It runs nine pages. Campbell says he was not intentionally ignoring his foes, but that his mother recently passed away and that has consumed much of his time

Barack & Bill
President Barack has thrown a big bone to Big Bill. The Guv and Barbara will be guests at the Prez's first White House state dinner this week, and that's going to set off a new round of speculation on whether Bill can somehow snag a gig and hightail it out of here before his Guv term ends.

The dinner for the prime minister of India had turned into the hottest ticket in DC town, with 400 invites being sent and a mad scramble to get one.

Some of the wall-leaners and Alligators (prematurely) had Bill packing his bags and heading to Cuba as a special envoy back in August when he visited the island nation, but then there was the shadow of yet another pay to play probe. Those betting against a Bill bon voyage were looking like the smart money players. Maybe they still have the edge, but if Richardson is as buried in mud as they would have you believe, it's not convincing the President of the USA to scrub him from his dinner and dance list.

Hey, maybe Bill can pull Barack aside and get him out on the White House portico where they can share an after-dinner Cuban cigar. (Hint, hint.)

All of this is more than a parlor game to the political classes here. Republicans have every reason to be anxious about Bill getting lucky. That would give Light Guv Di the Guv's chair and a head start on re-election. Of course, the gift would be best received after the legislative session in January where Di will be more than pleased to have Bill preside over the budget bloodletting.

The current propensity of the electorate sees to be to throw any bum out who is in so the incumbency may not be what it used to be, but neither is it a plate of stale bizcochitos. Which means don't be surprised if you see Di at Dillard's buying a new tie for Bill to wear on his dinner date with the Prez.

BY THE WAY...

Our Bill was shaking hands and exchanging pleasantries with that other Big Bill--Bill Clinton--over the weekend. Both men attended the funeral of former Governor Bruce King in Moriarty. The cameras showed Clinton warmly greeting Richardson and Bill Chief of Staff Brian Condit who were seated in one of the front rows while Clinton sat with the King family.

It was Richardson and Condit who took in the Super Bowl in 2008 in Red River with none other than Bill Clinton who came with hat in hand expecting Big Bill to endorse Hillary for the presidency. Richardson went with Obama instead and the feud was on--at least for Bill Clinton whose former campaign manager dubbed Bill a "Judas" for dissing the man who made him a national figure.

Is there a Clinton hurdle for Bill to jump to get back into national politics? If there is, maybe one of Bruce King's final acts was to help him jump it by giving the two politicos a chance to look one another in the eye again.

Bruce King always was the go-to guy to make the peace. Now, may he rest in peace.

IF WE HAVE TO GO THERE
Berry
ABQ Mayor-elect Berry has it right that the city--already facing record unemployment--needs to avoid layoffs. But what if the deficit for the rest of this budget year which goes until June 30 is beyond $20-$25 million? Councilor Ken Sanchez says if that's the case layoffs may be hard to avoid.

We are hearing more rumbling about the millions of dollars the city gives to the ABQ Public Schools for various programs as a pot of money that might be tapped before we have to let the ax fall on the heads of workers. It deserves a look.

Also, remember during the campaign when the mayor-elect argued--to the sharp disagreement of Mayor Chavez--that there was $100 million in unspent funds in various city funds, including unspent bond money, state grants, basic services and tax and impact fees? If that money is really available, as Berry argued, can it be tapped for the general fund? First, can the new administration, now looking at the books, tell us whether that money is indeed there?

For those of you who think we are bleeding hearts and cringe at the sight of seeing heads roll down the steps of downtown government center, bear in mind that there is a hiring freeze in effect and that many vacant positions are not going filled. The new mayor can make sure we have the long-term restructuring we need in a leaner economic time by deciding not to fill those positions and/or reducing the salaries for jobs that are refilled when tax collections start looking up.

SHARPEN THAT AX, RJ

Some of our insiders think the position of Chief Operating Officer is a prime one for Berry to eliminate and thereby reinforce his conservative credentials. He's run into a buzz saw by talking about having current Chief Administrative Officer Ed Adams move over to the COO slot. Berry could take care of that headache and save the city $150,000 or so in salary and benefits by nixing the position.

With all due respect to current COO Irene Garcia, what exactly does the COO do that can't be done by the department heads she oversees? Well, as one of the Gators opined: "Give me a month and I'll think of something."

THE CHIEF'S POSITION
Schultz
The ABQ Journal editorial pages have come down on the side of keeping ABQ police chief Ray Schultz, as Mayor-elect Berry announced he would. It has been a spirited debate since that decision because Berry made the city's skyrocketing property crime rate and a claim that ABQ is a so-called "Sanctuary City" for illegal immigrants key planks of his platform. Yet, the man in charge of those policies--the police chief--is retained.

The Journal cites a litany of failures in Schultz's four and a half year tenure--including the outrageous thefts from the police evidence room. No one was ever prosecuted for stealing cash and other booty from right under the police department's own roof. But in the end the paper and others backing Schultz argue he is "responsive and responsible" and can still be an agent of change.

The whole episode reminds us again that what is said in political campaigns--no matter how often or the depth of conviction--is often given short shrift when the politician finally gets power. If you watched RJ's TV spot on crime, you would have put the odds at him keeping Schultz at 20 to 1---unless you were an Alligator.

DAYS OF DARREN

Really, the elephant in the room when it comes to the administration of APD is the relationship it will have with the soon-to-be former Bernalillo County sheriff and new public safety director Darren White. How much will White be involved with managing the department? If a lot, how will that go down with the rank and file?

Chief Schultz could look marginalized if White becomes the de facto policy maker and public face of the department. They may have their own personal relationship worked out, but the public awaits how that impacts policy and the cops on the street.

There are no guidelines for the public safety position. Some city councilors contend it isn't even necessary--that we hire well-paid honchos to run police, fire and other public safety agencies and we should let them do it. That's the way it was back in the day, before Ken Schultz became mayor in the mid-80's and added a new layer of bureaucracy on the 11th floor.

Whether the public safety position is needed or not can be debated; what can't be is that getting rid of a government position is as difficult as kicking a lifelong green chile habit.

THE SHERIFF CHASE
Candelaria
While the debate sizzles over the retention of Chief Schultz, the one over who will be the new Bernalillo County sheriff to replace the resigning Darren, is going full throttle. One of the favorites for the post, APD Commander Conrad Candelaria, has been taking some buckshot over a "general discharge" he received from the NM Army National Guard as opposed to an "honorable discharge." Info on this has been circulating in our e-mail box and TV news has now surfaced the matter.

A top candidate to become Bernalillo County Sheriff is speaking out, after accusations from a retired National Guard colonel, who says Conrad Candelaria is spreading "falsehoods" about his time in the Guard. Albuquerque police Commander Conrad Candelaria is upset about a letter written by the retired colonel, calling the whole letter dirty politics.

The five member commission has dozens of applicants to choose from when it meets Nov. 30 to name a replacement to fill out the rest of White's term which runs until the end of 2010. From the start Candelaria's name has been high on the list, so it's no surprise he is taking fire as decision day nears.

He says he will release his records to the Dem-controlled county commission if they feel it necessary to clear the air. He may want to do that on his own. If he gets the gig, Candelaria, 43, has said he will seek a full, four year term. If the air is not cleared now and Candelaria gets the nod, the guns will be simply reloaded with fresh buckshot for what we expect to be a crowded June primary.

MAGGIE CHALLENGE?
Hart Stebbins
Talk is starting over whether Dem Bernalillo County Commissioner Maggie Hart Stebbins will draw a challenger in the June 2010 primary. She was appointed to the commission in May by Big Bill when Commissioner Deanna Archuleta left town to take a DC job with the Obama administration.

No names have yet emerged as challengers to the political newcomer who represents the ABQ SE Heights, but the talk comes as Maggie, who has an eclectic consulting background in government, talks of beefing up the county's ethics ordinance. Could the two events be related? You mean some folks would want Hart Stebbins off the commission because she is not a "team player" and wants to talk transparency and more accountability?

Forget it. That could never happen around here.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author