Friday, January 08, 2010Foley Foils His Own Comeback; Wanted Rio Rancho Council Seat, Plus: No Tidding, And: City Hall Doings
Foley
The political comeback plans of controversial former Roswell State Rep. Dan Foley have been foiled. Foley showed up at the city clerk's office in Rio Rancho Tuesday to file for a city council seat in the March 2 election there. However, City Clerk Roman Montoya tells us Foley failed to bring with him the required proof that he is registered to vote in Rio Rancho. He was denied a spot on the ballot for the council district being vacated by Larry Naranjo. Foley moved to the City of Vision last year. Foley was the target of one of the most expensive opposition legislative campaigns in state history when he sought re-election in '08 to his Roswell seat. Foley's foes spent over $250,000 to oust him in a bitter GOP primary contest in which Dennis Kintigh emerged as the winner and Foley's eventual replacement at the Roundhouse. Foley, an insurance agent, then moved to Rio Rancho, but controversy continues to be his trademark. He was busted for speeding and for failing to remove official state representative license plates from his pick-up truck. That was the latest in a long line of transgressions for the onetime House minority whip that has kept his name splashed across the front pages. In June of '07 he was arrested for interfering with his son's basketball game. A mug shot from that incident was flashed across TV screens statewide in paid TV ads in that rough and tumble '08 primary. The intense emotion Foley generates among his rivals has not completely abated. They continue to operate a Web site critical of the former ten year lawmaker. But Foley fans give him credit for helping to rid the state housing authority of corruption and for being a formidable public spokesman for Republicans. Despite his foul-up in filing for a Rio Rancho council seat, there are still rumblings that Foley could take a stab at the Rio Rancho state House seat held by Democrat Jack Thomas. But this week's incident shows that the comeback trail for this volatile character of La Politica is looking ever longer and steeper SWISSTACK VS. OWEN Swisstack & Owen Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack has filed to run for a four year term and drew only one challenger--former GOP Mayor Jim Owen who Swisstack has previously defeated for the post. Democrat Swisstack enters the race as the favorite, although the recession ravaging Rio Rancho in the form of foreclosures and unemployment will give Owen some talking points. We'll keep you posted. Meantime, the first mayor of Rio Rancho, William Howden, 70, has been charged with sexually assaulting a seven year old relative. Howden is in jail facing kidnapping and sex crimes charges. He is being held on a $100,000 cash bond. He became Rio Rancho's first mayor in 1981. The new city had a population then just shy of 10,000. Today Rio Rancho is a city of 80,000. ANYTHING YOU CAN DO...
Remember the song that goes, "Anything you can do, I can do better?" Well, that's kinda what were getting from GOP Guv candidate Janice Arnold-Jones. She says she is outdoing presumed Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish and releasing all of her campaign contributions and contributors as they come in. Di is voluntarily releasing quarterly reports--which is more than is required by state law. From the Janice spin room: Janice Arnold-Jones has listed financial contributors to her campaign on her website, www.janiceforgovernor.com. "Posting the names and amount donated by our financial contributors is the most transparent way a candidate can operate. Our approach exceeds what the other campaigns for governor are doing, including that of Lt. Governor Denish. We will continue to post the name and amount donated by every financial contributor as the campaign progresses...It is my sincere hope the other candidates will match our level of transparency. With the state submerged in ethics scandals, all the candidates are being prodded to early report their campaign money. The next state report isn't due until April. Denish has been voluntarily releasing quarterly reports. Will Janice force Di's hand and get her to release her contributions as they come in? And what about the other candidates, especially the ethics-obsessed campaign of GOP Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez. Will Susana show us the money? And what about the fellas? Where's the money machismo from Allen Weh and Doug Turner? Come on guys, impress the gals by flexing those financial muscles--in public. NO TIDDING How do you scare the bejesus out of nine top NM lobbyists? Try shouting out loud that their client, real estate giant SunCal, will not lobby the upcoming session of the Legislature for passage of a TIDD, a $408 million tax incentive measure. Well, the lobbyists have indeed been scared because SunCal confirms it will not be back in Santa Fe this year asking for approval of the TIDD. But hold on. SunCal's Vanessa Alarid tells us the nine lobbyists will still stay on the payroll! How's that for economic stimulus? The TIDD has already been defeated twice at the Roundhouse, including at last year's regular session. Maybe sometime in the future the third time will be the charm. Those seat-warming lobbyists will apparently be at the ready. SunCal has had a peck of financial trouble. The huge tract of land it is trying to develop on ABQ's West Side could be turned over to creditors. Those financial problems and an electorate in no mood to give tax breaks to big business made another effort at passing the TIDD ill-advised. PONDERING GARY In discussing the possibility of former NM Governor Gary Johnson seeking the presidency in 2012, we didn't note that he might actually seek the Republican Party nomination. Because of his crusade for drug legalization, he appears to have more appeal as a third party candidate. If he sought the GOP nomination and ran in the New Hampshire primary, his campaign would likely end there with a big loss. But if he was running as a third party contender, it would seem the chances of keeping a quixotic campaign going for a number of months would be much greater. Just some thoughts, but not inspired by any whiffs of Acupulco gold... WAITING GAME One of these days the Santa Fe housing market is going to turn around. These are not those days. KEN AND RJ It took a Republican mayor to turn around the political fortunes of Ken Sanchez, the new president of the ABQ city council. When he asked in the past for his fellow councilors to advance him, they balked. His close relationship with Mayor Chavez was viewed with suspicion. But with Chavez gone and GOP Mayor RJ Berry in, Sanchez was able to finally ascend to the presidency. No wonder Sanchez and Berry are getting along so well in the early going. That should continue for a while, at least until Sanchez announces his own bid for mayor for 2013. DARREN DOINGS The flurry of TV appearances by new ABQ public safety director Darren White is no surprise to White watchers--he has always been a media maven--but as the administration goes forward speculation about any political future for White will increase. And now that Sara Lister, his campaign manager for his unsuccessful 2008 run for the ABQ congressional seat, is an administrative assistant on the 11th Floor, the speculators have more reason to stay in business. White has also moved in Erin Kinnard Thompson as a $55,000 a year administrative assistant. She served as public information officer for White when he was Bernalillo County sheriff. And he earlier hired ABQ Journal crime reporter T.J. Wilham to a new PR position solely devoted to public safety. Sounds like Darren has ripped a page from Big Bill's PR playbook. THAT'S COOL The Roswell Daily Record snapped this dazzling end of year sunset. It's a nice way to head into the weekend. Thanks for checking in here this week. We appreciate your company. I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, New Mexico. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, January 07, 2010Ethnic Angle Surfaces In Dem Light Guv Race: Anglo Vote Up For Grabs? Plus: Readers Weigh In On State Budget Battle, And: A Really Big Matanza
Rael & Attorney Peacock
There's a race within the race for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor that is animating the five way contest. Can one of the candidates in this all Hispanic field become a front runner among Anglo Dems and emerge as the favorite? Lawrence Rael appears to be among the first to make a blatant play. He came with this Web page highlighting early support from ABQ attorney Deborah Peacock. It features a prominent photo of the lawyer and it caught our eye because it reminded us that much of the Anglo vote in this race is still on the fence. Rael and the othe light guv candidates---Senators Ortiz y Pino and Linda Lopez, former Dem Party chair Brian Colon and Rep. Joe Campos appear to be carving up the Hispanic vote. Another factor is that Diane Denish is set to become the first Anglo woman to become the Dem Guv nominee. That is getting more Anglo Dem women involved in the election and perhaps the crucial March pre-primary convention. If you don't get 20 percent of the delegates there, your candidacy is likely to die. Dem state Senator Tim Eichenberg toyed with the idea of making a run and many thought as the lone Anglo contender he could take the race for #2. But Denish persuaded Tim to stay out, knowing an all Anglo Dem ticket would be a harder sell. SOUTHERN ANGLE An ethnic angle is also surfacing in the race for the southern seat on the NM Public Regulation Commission. Former Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley is the sole official entrant for the Dem nomination for the seat being vacated by Dem Sandy Jones, but Dona Ana County Assessor Gary Perez is making noise about running. That would put this race in play, but McCamley ran a strong second for the '08 Dem congressional nomination, giving him name ID that could help him withstand the challenge--if it develops. THE LAND LINE Speaking of Jones, he is seeking the Dem nod for state land commissioner and analysts say he may be the front runner because he is the only candidate from south of I-40 and he is also the only one who sports conservative credentials. He faces former land commissioner Ray Powell and Santa Fe County Commissioners Harry Montoya and Mike Anaya. On the GOP side, the land office contest is also now drawing four hopefuls. From the state GOP: Jim Jackson of ABQ has announced his candidacy for Commissioner of Public Lands. Jackson, an attorney and former Catron County rancher, has worked in the State Land Office for four years...first as Assistant Commissioner then as Director of the Surface Division..He worked as a prosecutor for six years. Prior to that, he and his wife ranched in Catron County..He was a Quemado School Board Member for five years... Jackson joins former Bernalillo County GOP executive director Bob Cornelius, Roosevelt County rancher Matt Rush and retired DEA agent Errol Chavez of Dona Ana County. PETE DOMENICI JR. FOR GUV? Rumors have been flying that attorney Pete Domenici Jr., son of former NM US Senator Pete Domenici, will become the fifth candidate for the GOP Guv nod. He told the ABQ Journal he will make his mind up in a few days. If Peter Jr., 50, goes for it, it will give us plenty to blog about. Stay tuned. FOOD FIGHT There are 25 R's in the state House, not 28, as we blogged in our first draft Wednesday. That means 10 Dems would have to join with those R's to stop any proposal to reimpose the gross receipts tax on food purchases. And food tax foes say they already have five lined up against it. They are: Reps. Cote, Egolf, Maestas, Rodefer, and Stapleton. If they get five more the food tax would fail in the House on a 35 to 35 tie.
VOX POPULI Let's bring the readers in on the battle of the budget. First up is Alan Schwartz who says our backing of an increase in the state capital gains tax is not going to do anything to solve the state's short-term money woes: Who has capital gains these days? Personally, for the first time in my life (64) I'm dealing with capital losses...so is my 92 year old mother who had a very conservative mutual from which she withdrew funds each month. I would be interested in learning how much additional revenue would be realized by this action.... The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy claims the state would have realized over $50 million for 2008 by tweaking an exclusion that NM and nine other states give to profits on stock sales and other assets. Of course, in this bear market capital gains are becoming more limited, reducing the amount of tax collected. The Institute is nonprofit, getting its funding mainly from foundations. One of them is the Paul Newman Foundation, so they might lean a bit left. JANITOR LOVE When we advocated that state workers who make $30,000 or less be exempt from any salary reductions, we cited janitors as an example. Reader Bill Taylor jumped on that: I wish janitors in New Mexico made $30 K per year. Most are under $20,000 with starting pay about $16 K or just over half of the $30,000 you suggest. And reader Doris went deeper: You advocate for salary cuts for state employees making over $30K on the basis of “fairness.” But fairness also mandates that salaries should be somewhat in line with private sector salaries, taking other benefits into account. A 2009 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics study shows that at or below $30K, state employees generally make more than equivalent private sector employees. Conversely, state employees at $45k plus tend to make much less than their private sector counterparts. The higher the salary, the higher the inequity. For example, private attorneys make 80% more than state attorneys...If NM wants to retain competent employees, it should not exacerbate the inequity. Another reason not to make under $30k’s exempt from salary cuts is that many people with lower salaries are part of two income families with a much higher total income... FOR THE RECORD A number of readers picked up on a reader comment we posted Wednesday praising the recent winning performance of the University of New Mexico basketball team. That reader asserted the improvement will mean increased attendance and thus more money for UNM academics. Not so, rebuts UNM biology professor Tim Lowrey: My heart sank when I saw your quote from the reader pontificating on the financial virtues of UNM Basketball. The reader is sadly mistaken about money generated by athletics supporting the academic mission. There is no relationship between attendance at basketball or other athletic games and hiring faculty. ...UNM enrollment is increasing and the tenure-track faculty is decreasing. Those faculty generated $133 million in research grant and contract dollars for UNM (and the state) in 2009...In fact, monies from student fees and from the Instructional and General Funds (appropriated by the Legislature) subsidize athletics. It's a one-way street. As for (UNM President) Schmidly, he squandered the opportunity to fix the mistakes of the unqualified (former UNM President Louis) Caldera and created even more "bungles" of his own. The readers don't know the half of it. There was more. Lisa Knudsen, president of the UNM Graduate/Professional Student Association, emailed us this: UNM Athletics' annual operating budget is around $28M. Many of those millions are being subsidized by taxpayers and student fees. This figure does not include capital improvements which are generously funded by the Legislature meaning taxpayers. The Pit renovations alone cost $60M. Bonded over 20 years the debt service will be $5 to $6M a year. You often hear UNM administrators saying that Athletics is "revenue-generating," but what they studiously aren't saying is that Athletics is "profit-making." UNM Athletics does not generate one dime--much less one dime to help fund UNM's mission, which is the higher education of New Mexicans. And to top it all off, the Lobos lost their Mountain West conference opener to San Diego State Wednesday. LET'S MATANZA Usually you hear about pork barrel politics in relation to the various construction projects that state legislators covet for their individual districts, but we have another pork fest that is sure to draw the interest of politicos as they look for hands to shake in this election year: The Valencia County Hispano Chamber of Commerce is pleased to announce that its 10th annual Matanza will be held January 30 at the Sheriff’s Posse Grounds in Belen. Forty pigs, 25 teams competing in the cooking competitions and more than 10-thousand visitors make this the largest matanza in the world...All proceeds will go to fund college scholarships...The cost is $10 for adults. Children 10 and under get in free Forty pigs? That ought to satisfy even the most pork-hungry politico. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news, comments, or observations on the human condition. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, January 06, 2010Food Fight Over Tax Hikes? Big Bill's Budget Plan Unveiled, Plus: A Rose Colored Aggie, And: An Evening With Gary Johnson & Cheech & Chong
Food fight anyone? Big Bill came with his budget balancing proposal Tuesday and like the Legislative Finance Committee he calls for a $200 million tax increase to avoid even deeper spending cuts. And neither Richardson or key lawmakers are ruling out reimposing the gross receipts tax on food purchases.
(AP coverage here; Guv's complete proposal here. Guv's news release here.) When it comes to his first full-fledged budget during an economic crisis, Bill sure isn't listening to us. Rollback the '03 tax cuts for the wealthy? Nope. Increase the capital gains tax on stock and other asset sales to generate sorely needed tax revenue? Not in the cards. Eliminate or reduce some of the myriad of "tax credits" that cost the state millions? Not in this budget. About all three of those proposals heard here, Richardson asserted Tuesday:
We’ve used these tax cuts and incentives to successfully create thousands of jobs in the state, and I will not give up these tools when we need them most. We won't beat the proverbial dead horse and again ask for hard evidence of that claim or even note that unemployment here has set recent records, but we wouldn't be worth our blogging pajamas if we didn't point out that in the middle of a devastating recession a Democratic Governor and Legislature don't seem too concerned about a tax code that has gone from progressive to regressive. One wag calls them "The Republicrats." FOOLING WITH FOOD A food tax would especially draw the wrath of senior citizens on fixed incomes, not a group the 70 members of the state House likes to trifle with considering each of them faces re-election this year and the old folks love to vote. Presumed 2010 Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish was first in line to say she wouldn't touch the foodie tax with a ten-foot pole. Come to think of it, they may start selling 10-foot poles at the Rio Chama by the end of the next legislative session. WHAT'S A TEMPORARY TAX? Bill says any tax increase that is approved should be "temporary," ending when the economic recovery begins. So when does the recovery begin and that new tax--whatever it is--end? When the unemployment rate goes down? When state revenues increase? On this one the cynics and the conservatives are united in their belief that once passed, tax hikes rarely go away. And let's not be sure that it's a sure thing a big tax increase will make it through the Legislature. The 25 House R's are united in their opposition which means about ten Dems need to join them. If you're thinking about giving House Speaker Lujan a gift, you might try a book on the ancient northern New Mexican art of sheep herding. He'll need it to keep his Dems together on any tax hikes. LESS TOXIC? Do you sense that the relationship between the Guv and the Legislature is less toxic than it was during last fall's '09 special session? Back then it rivaled the prelude to a nasty divorce. But listen to what LFC Chair Lucky Varela is saying about the Guv's budget: It's doable. The governor, for some reason, is attempting to work with the Legislature... Well, let's not press our luck, Lucky, and try to divine just why. We all agree a tamer Big Bill is a better Big Bill. As we said, House members are up for re-election and there's a little thing called a race for Governor coming up. Too many food fights among the majority party and those love starved Republicans could start to get some attention. MORE TOXIC? But it could get toxic real quick when lawmakers start deciding which of the $150 million in capital outlay projects--aka "pork"--to cut. Bill is proposing they axe the pork to help balance the budget and lawmakers are indicating they will, but both sides have their favorites. EVEN MORE BUDGET Liberals will argue strongly against the Guv's proposed three percent across the board cut in state government, saving $158 million, but it will get kudos from conservatives and independents. Richardson also aims to save $4 million by doing away with the "double dippers." Those are the state workers who retire only to go back on the payroll and draw both a paycheck and a retirement check. If the double dippers are dumped, the unanimous rejoinder will be: "It's about time." SOUTH VALLEY TSUNAMI It wasn't expected to pass and it didn't. And then some. The plan to carve out a separate city in Bernalillo County's South Valley crashed and burned Tuesday when 93 percent--that's right--93 percent of those voting rejected the idea. The real shocker was the huge and unpredicted turnout. 23,000 were eligible to vote and 6,819 cast ballots. That's a 29 percent turnout. And advocates for the city wanted the post-holiday election to dampen turnout! Hey, don't try to pull a movida on Valley voters. They've been playing La Politica for centuries. The big worry was that a new city would mean higher taxes, not something freshly frugal voters are warming too these days. ROSE COLORED AGGIE Barbara Couture It's all roses and smiles this week for Barbara Couture, the new president of New Mexico State University. Not pictured in this Sun-News snap is the state budget crisis that lurks in the background. For now it's a fresh start for the head Aggie who was senior vice chancellor for academic affairs at the University of Nebraska since 2004. She will likely be a frequent visitor to the Santa Fe Roundhouse when the session gets underway January 19. One of her first tasks will be to protect the school's funding. To that end, the NMSU regents seemed to have struck a fair bargain with their new leader. Her annual salary is $385,000 plus perks. They also gave her 500,000 reasons to keep that smile on her face for five years. That's the amount of her bonus if she stays that long. LOBO TALK We blogged Monday of the PR reprieve the University of New Mexico is getting as the Lobo basketball team scales the national rankings. That led this reader to give a rare-shout-out to Loboland leaders: Hooray for (basketball coach) Steve Alford. It appears that people don’t realize that the more the Lobos win, the more money comes into the University, the more we have to hire and pay faculty resulting in a better and increased student population. Its all ecosystem. I also think that (UNM) President Schmidly has tried to bring some big ideas in, and change is hard. I think that he has taken more than his share of heat for past mistakes-Caldera anyone? Louis Caldera preceded Schmidly as UNM president. GARY'S WORLD Coverage in the state's press of the re-emergence of former NM Governor Gary Johnson has been complimentary, but there's an obvious major obstacle to any revival of his political future . Johnson is flirting with an independent or Libertarian Party run for president in 2012 and will speak in New Hampshire this month. But coverage here has barely touched upon the controversies he left in his wake, especially over his fervent advocacy for drug legalization. And the issue isn't going away. Johnson will attend the Marijuana Policy Project's 15th anniversary gala Jan. 13 in D.C. Headliners for the event? Famous comedic dopers Cheech and Chong. Well, we suppose that makes good copy for the press, if perhaps not very good politics for ex-Governor Gary. YOU KNEW IT WAS COMING It's the new Tiger Woods game in which you use the up/down keypad arrows to help Tiger avoid the fate that awaits him at the hands of his enraged wife. Incumbent politicos better hope voters aren't as mad as she is this year. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, January 05, 2010Battle Of The Budget: Salary Cuts & Tax Hike Proposals Dominate Debate, Plus: UNM's PR Reprieve, And: Spacing Out In T Or C
Rep. Varela
Viewed from the perspective of a severely battered private sector, the recommendation from the Legislative Finance Committee that all state employees take a two percent salary cut to help balance the budget isn't especially Draconian. After all, six percent of the state's non-government work force--or some 40,000 jobs--have gone by the wayside in the past two years alone. Still, is it fair that a $30,000 a year janitor take the same salary hit as a $90,000 state employee? What happened to the proposal to have the highly paid workers share more of the burden as the state wrestles with its epic fiscal woes? And how about a proposal that workers making less than $30,000 not be cut at all? The LFC budget for the year starting July 1, 2011 was carried on TV news by committee chair Lucky Varela (D-Santa Fe). It cuts spending by proposing those across-the-board salary cuts and eliminating about 1,000 positions, many of which are already vacant. It also calls for trimming the budget of the state's universities by four percent and cutting Medicaid, the health program for the poor, by two percent. But the LFC still leaves a $200 million deficit. Where will we get that money? Some R's say cut more spending. Governor Bill is saying a "temporary" tax increase and the LFC is leaving its options open. Over the weekend Richardson ruled out any increase in the personal income tax for the rich as well as any increase in the capital gains tax. He was immediately castigated for it by critics who say it appears the Governor is more concerned about his wealthy campaign donors than he is the average New Mexican. Richardson's unilateral dismissal of these tax proposals does seem to demand more explanation. He is calling the tax cuts for the wealthy economic development tools, but recently said the major economic development of his administration was the development of a Rio Rancho Hewlett-Packard call center where only half the jobs will pay $40,000 a year. Where are the $200,000 salaries the '03 cut was supposed to lure here? The administration and its allies have yet to produce any documentation that the rollback of the top income tax rate directly resulted in any meaningful economic activity. Meanwhile, news reports continue to site the inequitable taxation rates in the state, with the middle classes shouldering a disproportionate share compared to the wealthy. FILLING THE HOLE A modest increase in the top state tax rate, eliminating too generous tax credits to promote various economic activities--some ambiguous--and a vigorous appraisal of state contracts--especially the giant ones going to various law firms--would raise barrels full of revenue. But these proposals--as direct and as reasonable as they may seem--are orphans in Santa Fe. They might not raise $200 million, but they would make for a good start. The bottom line on all of this is this: Unreasonably low tax rates for the rich, tax credits for businesses with strong lobbies and the platoon of law firms with close ties to legislators has lawmakers looking the other way, and looking covetously at the wallets of the average Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico. PSYCHOLOGY TODAY As much as everyone dreads the 30 day legislative session that begins January 19, the release of the LFC budget proposal Monday and the one to come today from Big Bill, seems to make it more tolerable. At least we are starting to grapple with the unpleasantness and like any problem, when it's discussed openly it seems less fearsome. We are only in the second year of a long-term psychological adjustment to a learner government and one facing continuing pressure to provide for the basic welfare of the state. But human nature gradually adjusts and the body politic is no different. MORE RICHARDSON 59 Our search for the "Richardson 59," the group of political appointees laid off by the Guv as part of the state's budget balancing effort nets another name. Stephan Helegson sent out an email confirming he was one of those on the hit list: I will be leaving my position as the Director of the Office of Science and Technology with the Economic Development Department on January 8th. My job was one of 50+ 'Exempt' positions eliminated by the Governor in December. Regrettable though it is, 'one door closes and another one always opens.' This downturn won't last forever, and the State's finances will surely improve... The Guv's office says it is not dignified to release the names of those being dumped. But the 59 being let go reveal the administration's priorities as it goes about trimming state government. That is a public policy issue and we have the right to know--and to debate. So far, readers have helped us post 20 of the Richardson 59. UNM'S PR REPRIEVE A couple of months ago we suggested that the athletic department mismanagement mess at the University of New Mexico might be solved by giving UNM basketball coach Steve Alford another hat to wear by making him the athletic director. Well, we didn't expect that to happen and it hasn't. But Alford is still bailing out UNM--at least for a time. His Lobos are on a tear, compiling a 14-1 record and reviving the legendary rabidness of Lobo fans who are once again packing the fabled Pit. The wining streak is also dominating coverage of the school, giving UNM President Schmidly a reprieve from the headlines that have battered him and UNM football coach Mike Locklsey. But the structural and management problems at UNM are deep-seated. Schmidly, the UNM Regents and the troubled athletic department should enjoy the good news--while it lasts. NO NEW CITY? The effort to carve out a new city in the South Valley of Bernalillo County will go down in flames, predicts Dem State Rep. Ernest Chavez. The election is today. Turnout has been trending a bit higher than expected--about 8 percent of those eligible may cast ballots. Chavez says now is not the time for a new city. He says there is not enough of a tax base to support a new city and he does not detect widespread support for the idea. We'll see for certain tonight when election results roll in. CONTESTING THE COMMISSION Did we shortchange the R's when it comes to the race to succeed Alan Armijo on the Bernalillo County Commission? One GOP advocate thought we did when we blogged of this race: "The Armijo district is heavy Dem. Whoever wins the nomination in June can be expected to take the prize in November." Our reader chimes in: Joe, Don't be so sure of this! You may be very surprised next November when thevotes are counted! It's all about performance not registration when it comes to elections. Think of the win of Dan Lewis for the ABQ city council in this same area and the trend toward Republicans in our country now. A large swath of the West side and the ABQ North Valley are in this district. Republicans tell us attorney Simon Kubiak is getting in the race. Three Dems--Michelle Lujan Grisham, Dan Serrano and Loretta Naranjo Lopez--are campaigning. Top Dems still say the R argument is a pipe dream and can't remember when an R ever represented the district. SPACING IN T OR C The Telegraph in London travels to Truth or Consequences to update the activity at Spaceport America: At the town's main drug store, Shana Curliss, a 24-year-old shop assistant, said the spaceport had captured the imagination of younger locals, if not the older ones. "It's new and it's different. I grew up in this little town and there's not much here for the children, not much work either" she said. "And the rich people will be coming to the stores, won't they?" This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here. Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, January 04, 2010They're Off! 2010 Action Starts Now; Odds Set On All Major Races As Hopefuls Break From The Starting Gate; How Will You Bet?
The calendar has turned and the 2010 election year is finally and officially here. What better way to kick off the action than by consulting our Alligators and wall-leaners to set the first round of odds on all the major races?
So we gathered their input, shook it around in a bowl of red chile powder and then took it to the banks of the Rio Grande where we mediated over it. Finally, we gathered our posse of Alligators and set the final odds in a secret ceremony patterned after northern New Mexican Penitente rites. (Okay, maybe we exaggerate a bit.) The betting line (for fun only, of course) is constantly subjected to changing events. This first round of odds is sure to draw some contrary opinion from some of the candidates' camps, but we assure them and you it was compiled after intense analysis fueled only by Starbucks' strongest blend, and not accompanied by any alcoholic beverages or known hallucinogens. So without further ado or explanation--(Hey, we run this thing)--it's on to the very first betting line of Campaign 2010. DEM GOVERNOR PRIMARY--Diane Denish is unopposed. The odds are 10 to one against anyone else being on the June ballot (not as a write-in, of course) to oppose her. Looks like Di has dodged the Hispanic male challenger bullet. GOP GOVERNOR PRIMARY--Allen Weh goes off at 5/2 (a $2 wager pays $5), Susanna Martinez goes off at 4-1 ($2 wager pays $8), Doug Turner goes off at 6-1 ($2 wager pays $12) and Janice Arnold-Jones gets the long shot wager at 10-1 ($2 wager pays $20). Weh has money and is the only conservative Anglo male in the race. But attacks from the others should start soon. Nervousness over Weh's ability to win a general election also weigh on Weh. GENERAL ELECTION GOVERNOR ODDS--Denish starts as a 9-to-5 favorite over any of the Republican Field. Those betting Denish wager $9 to win $5; those betting the GOP nominee wager $5 to win $9. That's a good start for Denish, but she is no shoo-in yet. The R's have ammo--an unstable economic environment amid ever-present state scandals. DEM LT. GOVERNOR PRIMARY--Colon goes off at 3-1 ($2 wager pays $6), Campos goes off at 7-2 ($2 wager pays $7), Rael goes off at 4-1 ($2 wager pays $8), Ortiz y Pino goes off at 8-1 ($2 wager pays $16), Linda Lopez goes off at 15-1 ($2 wager pays $30). The field (any other candidate on the ballot, not including write-ins) goes off at 20-1 ($2 wager pays $40). Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano goes off at 99-1 ($2 wager pays $198). Solano announced Sunday he is getting out of the race. He said the media and bloggers placed too much emphasis on how much money he has raised, which in his case was very little. Come on, Greg. We don't believe money raised is the whole game, but it is a significant indicator of whether a campaign is gaining traction. But you aren't the first and won't be the last to bust media chops on your way out the door. Colon has raised the most money in the early going, giving him the pole position.
Remember, the odds are the current snapshot in time, not a prediction on how the race will eventually finish. GOP LT. GOVERNOR PRIMARY--John Sanchez goes off at 2-1 ($2 wager pays $4), Kent Cravens also goes off at 2-1, and Brian Moore goes off at 5-1 so a $2 wager would pay $10. Santa Fe's JR Damron is the long shot, going off at 20 to 1 odds. (ABQ nurse Bea Sheridan is no longer in the race.) Sanchez was the GOP Guv nominee in '02 and can self-finance a campaign. State Senator Cravens is popular in the important GOP ABQ NE Heights. THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES ABQ SEAT--Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich goes off as the 7-5 favorite. Those wagering on the Congressman must bet $7 to win $5, while those wagering on Republican Jon Barela bet $5 to win $7. Neither Heinrich or Barela have opposition in their June primary contests. Barela has to raise a lot of money to make this competitive and he needs a mistake from the so-far mistake free Heinrich. SOUTHERN SEAT--Pick-Em. The race between Dem US Rep. Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce is an even money bet. A $2 wager wins $2, plus the original bet. If they put a gun to your head and forced you to pick, you might say the incumbent takes it, but that's based on past history, not current conditions. NORTHERN SEAT--Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan goes off as the prohibitive 1-9 favorite. Those betting on the Congressman lay $9 to win $1, while those wagering the GOP lay $1 to win $9. Lujan has to challenge himself. Will he put together a legendary career or a pedestrian one? PROPOSITION BETS The guys and gals also wanted to add to the fun by offering what are known as "proposition bets" or side bets on some non-candidate election year action. Here are our favorites. RICHARDSON APPROVAL RATING ON LABOR DAY, 2010: Odds are 2-1 it will be 50% or higher, even money for a bet that it will be in the 40's and the odds are 3 to 1 that it will be below 40%. (Bill was at 51% approval in the last ABQ Journal poll conducted in Sept.) RICHARDSON LEAVES BEFORE HIS TERM EXPIRES ON DEC. 31--The line setters are calling this an even money bet, which sounds surprising given all the controversy that has surrounded the Guv. But Obama did invite him to his first state dinner and that had the Gators dropping the odds on the Guv getting out of here. NM GENERAL ELECTION VOTER TURNOUT--Odds are 2-1 if you bet that it will be 65 percent or more of registered voters and even money if between 55% and 65%. The odds go up to 3-1 if you wager that turnout falls below 50% of registered voters. (There are currently about 1,119,000 registered voters). GOP GUV CANDIDATE SPENDS MORE THAN DENISH--You get 10 to 1 odds if you think the R's will muster enough cash to outspend Di. She's already raised $2 million. SOUTHERN CONGRESS SHOCKER: What if the highly touted Teague-Pearce congressional race turns into a bust and one of the contenders wins by 10 points or more? Our odds makers will give you 10 to one odds if you bet that either Teague or Pearce will score 55% or more. Actually, given how often close elections turn lopsided, those odds seem among the best offered. As we said, all these odds are a snapshot in time--how we think the races would go if the election were held right now. We'll post an updated version following the mid-March pre-primary conventions and compare them to this one. REST OF THE RACES We haven't set the line yet for the state land commission race. There are a number of R and Dem candidates, but the races for attorney general, state treasurer, state auditor and secretary of state start the year as a bust. There are still no announced GOP candidates for those offices. We think a couple will emerge, but the state party needs to get busy recruiting. Meanwhile, a reader offers some speculation on why the R's aren't getting these races off the ground: Maybe the R's aren't getting the commitment from rich Texan Bob Perry in 2010 that they previously got. In 2008, Bob wrote campaign checks to the New Mexico Republican Party totaling $240,000. In the 2006 cycle, the Perry's dropped a total of $361,000 into the state. The contributions included $125,000 to Vickie Perea, GOP secretary of state candidate $75,000 to Jim Bibb, Republican nominee for attorney general candidate and $70,000 to Demesia Padilla, the GOP treasurer candidates. The state GOP appears to have made a decision to concentrate solely on the Guv's race when it comes to the statewide office. But by ignoring the lower ballot races they miss an opportunity to pump up GOP turnout. More important, it reveals that the party's efforts to rebuild after two devastating election cycles here has a very long way to go. ON THE TRAIL On the campaign trail in Roswell, Los Angeles Times politics correspondent Mark Barabak takes the early temperature on the hot congressional race between Dem Rep. Teague and GOP challenger Pearce: Teague, motoring the long stretch between small towns, said he considered issues on the merits; he opposed the health care bill because he doubts it will extend affordability. He supported the "cap-and-trade" bill to fight global warming after winning concessions to help small refiners and electrical co-ops. "Making everybody happy in a district this big and diverse probably isn't going to happen," Teague said. He professes not to worry about the shifting tide, but others do: the Democratic congressional campaign arm has placed Teague in its incumbent-protection program... And there will be more to come, much more, on what will be one of the marquee congressional races in 2010. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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