Friday, January 22, 2010Kiki's Capitol Shoe Shine Parlor; It's A Kick, Plus: Pete Sr. On Pete Jr: Mixed Emotions On Guv Run, And: The Readers Blog
Shine by Kiki
Has it come to this? The chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee shining shoes at the Roundhouse to raise money to resolve the state's mammoth budget deficit? Well, we don't know how much ABQ Dem Rep. Kiki Saavedra gets paid for his shoe shining duties, but he looks like he knows his stuff and every bit helps in chipping away at the giant deficit. He's caught in this snapshot buffing the shoe leather of capitol employee David Ortiz. Now, if Kiki could just get some of those 19 University of New Mexico vice-presidents pulling down $4.5 million a year to help out at the shoe shine stand, we just might make a bigger dent in the $600 million deficit. Come to think of it, Kiki, if you have to axe those Veeps, you might arrange some small business loans for them. Those Roundhouse lobbyists like to keep their Gucci's nice and shiny. PETE SENIOR ON PETE JR. Former US Senator Pete Domenici was not exactly brimming over with enthusiasm in discussing the GOP Guv run of his son, Pete Domenici Jr., when he discussed the entry with the ABQ Journal's Michael Coleman. The interview reflects the mixed signals that we heard about Pete Jr's entry from certain members of the Domenici family and former Domenici staffers. Pete Sr. said he pointed out the pitfalls of a Guv run before Pete Jr. pulled the trigger, but now that he is in he is supportive. The interview raises questions on how active the former Senator will be in raising money on behalf of his 50 year old attorney son. Our guess is as the race heats up, the emotional ties will take over and Pete Sr. will get more into this campaign than might be expected. There's also a weird psychology angle at play here. Pete Sr. ran for Governor in 1970 and lost to Bruce King, his only state election loss. Now the son wants to accomplish what the father couldn't. Just some food for thought or something. And then there's the issue we previously hit on--the legacy of Senator Domenici and how it will be impacted by a rough and tumble campaign. RACE ACTION Spiro Vassilopoulos is the latest entrant in the crowded GOP race for land commissioner. The ABQ oil man will make it official Sunday. He joins at least five other R's in this race. But the GOP still doesn't have announced candidates for attorney general sec, of state, treasurer or auditor. Aren't they getting top heavy with this land contest? How many Hispanic Dem bullets can southern Dem Public Regulation Commission candidate Bill McCamley dodge? Dona Ana County Assessor George Perez says he won't join the race, after briefly considering it, but former county commissioner Gilbert Apodaca still lurks. Even though the seat is held by Dem Sandy Jones, who is now running for land commissioner, an Hispanic Dem would have a good chance of winning the nomination. McCamley will hold his breath until PRC filing day which is March 16th. On the Republican side Las Cruces native and businessman Jamie Estrada has joined former Dona Ana County GOP Commissioner Kent Evans in seeking the R nomination for this PRC seat which the Dems traditionally win. THE READERS BLOG Saint Pete Jr.? Well, the readers have their own way of framing the races of La Politica. Mike Kitts is one of them and comes with this colorful dispatch: But don't think that (Democrat) Diane Denish is totally out of the loop when it comes to raising money. I know that the Democrats will fight tooth and nail to get her elected. The Dems will also attract big names and big national money. The only ones going to benefit this Governor's race will be the people the candidates have to buy media time from. hey have a helluva fight on their hands with St. Baby, and they know it. It's going to be a wonderful year, politically. HOW TO GET IT DONE Reader Pete Baston has some advice to anyone who wants to win the Guv's office in 2010, based on the GOP Massachusetts Senate upset victory of Scott Brown: So you want to be governor on NM and now thanks to Scott Brown the field is wide open. Here are some helpful hints 1. You are not a REPUBLICAN but an Independent republican ( small text) 2. Buy a pick up truck with 250 K Miles on it quick ( Ditch the Beamer or Lexus ) 3. Rent or adopt two beautiful daughters for the duration 4. Get tea party support and compare Big Bill with George III and Santa Fe pols with the dastardly English (Miracle in NM ) 5. Learn the star team roster for the Lobos 6. Produce TV ads like this. There you have it, a guaranteed plan for the Gov's Job in 2010. And there you have another week of blogging. Thanks for tuning in. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan. Email your news and comments (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, January 21, 2010NM Senators Refuse To Release Names Of US Attorney Candidates; Our Alligators Come With List, Plus: A Talk With Teague, And: GOP Guv Action Crackles
Sens. Bingaman & Udall
New Mexico US Senators Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall are refusing to release the list of individuals they have interviewed for the position of US Attorney, arguing that it is a "privacy issue." That's the same argument Governor Richardson used when he refused to release the names of the 59 political appointees he said he was dismissing to achieve budget savings. But the reliable sources that power this blog and who have disclosed many of the "Richardson 59" now come with the list of all the attorneys Bingaman and Udall interviewed back in September for the US Attorney position currently held by Republican Greg Fouratt. Senator Bingaman, in refusing to release the names Wednesday, told reporters a short list has been sent to the White House where a final choice will be made. More on that, but first here is the list of those interviewed as compiled by Senior Alligators and Legal Beagles with records of 99.9 percent accuracy:
WHOSE THE FAVE? Our senior sources report Ken Gonzales flew to Washington in late December to be interviewed by the Justice Department and he is believed to be the only one to have been interviewed. Also, insiders report the FBI conducted a background check on Gonzales in January and interviewed staffers about Gonzales at the Federal Public Defender's Office as well as some Federal judges. Informed speculation has Democrat Gonzales as the front runner and current US attorney Greg Fouratt staying on as his First Assistant. Our Legal Beagles report Fouratt has hired over 30 attorneys in the last year. Gonzales does not have significant supervisory experience. Fouratt boasted in a public appearance earlier this month that he knows who the new US Attorney will be and that he and New Mexico will be pleased with the choice. WHY UNKNOWN GONZALES? Fouratt has been investigating a wide array of pay-to-play allegations against Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, but he failed to come with indictments in the CDR bond scandal. The current fed probe concerns investments of New Mexico's permanent funds by the State Investment Council and whether there was political pressure involved in making any investments. Democrats Udall and Bingaman may be favoring an unknown for the US attorney slot because of concern that having a Dem attorney with political ties will give Republicans ammo to accuse them of trying to thwart the federal investigations. But why, if our sources have it right, is only one candidate being interviewed by Justice? The eventual nominee must be confirmed by the US Senate and go before the Senate Judiciary Committee for questioning. One of the questions they may want to ask, say the Legal Beagles, is how independent would Gonzales be of Fouratt? Will New Mexico truly be getting a new US Attorney or a clone? And if Bingaman and Udall are fearful of the political consequences of moving Fouratt aside, why not just push the Republican for the post? THE SENATORS SECRETS The Senators decision that the short list of nominees they sent to the White House culled from the names listed above should be kept private is not standard procedure. Short lists of nominees to become US attorneys for other jurisdictions have been publicly released elsewhere. The ABQ Journal, usually aggressive in pursuing government secrecy issues, has stayed silent on the US attorney selection, printing no articles on possible candidates or the future direction or conduct of the office under a Democratic leader. The Santa Fe New Mexican has editorialized against the selection of attorney John Pound. The New Mexico press has been generally friendly to Fouratt, probably because of his aggressive attitude towards government corruption. But the release of the names of the US attorney candidates is about the public's right to know, not just of a possibly pre-selected final choice, but of all those who were interviewed and to have a chance to weigh in on the matter if they so desire. TEAGUE TALK We talked up Congressman Harry Teague Tuesday night in Santa Fe just as the results came in that the Republicans had pulled up that huge US Senate upset in Massachusetts, but the freshman southern NM lawmaker was as cool as a cucumber. He insisted the race was not a bellwether for what might await him at the hands of GOP challenger Steve Pearce in the conservative leaning district. But that isn't stopping the national R's from terrorizing Teague with the Bay State results. Spokeswoman Joanna Burgos unloaded both barrels: Harry Teague, who supports the Democrat agenda nearly 89 percent of the time, is misrepresenting his constituents in a district that for years voted for fiscally-conservative Republican representation in Congress and voted for the last three Republican presidential nominees. There is no doubt that Harry Teague woke up in fear today as he realized that, in November, he will pay the price for advancing the Obama-Pelosi big-government, tax-and-spend agenda.” We joked with Teague, asking whether he will put up a billboard in Hobbs of Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and himself. He laughed aloud and replied: "No, I won't, but they (the R's) probably will." POLITICAL SIMPLICITY Dem Lt. Governor candidate Lawrence Rael, former head of the Mid-Region Council of Governments, bases his campaign in part on his success in getting the Rail Runner commuter train to Santa Fe up and running. Now the Rail Runner is in financial trouble and service may have to be cut. That does not help Lawrence Rael. REPUBLICAN NOMINATION BATTLE The rumblings we reported this week among some R's of having GOP Guv candidate and Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez switch over and seek the GOP nod for attorney general drew a predictably harsh reaction from Martinez operatives who said no such switch is under consideration. Whatever the case, a switch would have to be made on a tight timetable. The official filing date for statewide candidates is February 9. Hey, maybe Susana should ask Pete Jr. to get out of her way and run for AG? Meanwhile, NM GOP executive director Ryan Cangliosi checked in to spin the Massachusetts Senate news, saying the Republican victory there makes Dem Diane Denish more vulnerable than previously thought. He won't get much argument there, but what about the R's still having no candidates for attorney general, treasurer, auditor or secretary of state with that February filing deadline looming? No candidates yet, but the ED indicated they are coming. As for Pete Domenici Jr., he's not going to chase any of his four rivals out of the race or be the favorite at the pre-primary convention in March unless he meets fund-raising expectations. Those expectations go up in the wake of the Dem debacle in Massachusetts. Look for Pete Jr. to be chewing up a lot of cell phone minutes and maybe his famous dad, too. JOE AND MIKE We sat down for a wide-ranging five minute interview for the KRQE-TV 4 p.m. news with Mike Powers Wednesday. How the Massachusetts upset plays out here was our focus. Here's the video. SOME FAME IS GOOD? George P. Bush One other R note, Susana Martinez, trying to thwart any early momentum from Domenici, released an endorsement letter of her candidacy Wednesday from attorney George P. Bush, 33, the eldest of the three children of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. The attorney said of Martinez: A prosecutor, she takes on rapists, murderers, and even corrupt public officials. She fights for what’s right and does not back down, even when faced with long odds, or powerful opposition. That character and passion is what will make her a great Governor. Nice enough, but that news release was followed by an Alligator strike. This particular Gator reminded us that it was just days ago that Susana put out a news release saying Domenici's famous name doesn't mean much when it comes to having substance. What makes the Bush name any different for Martinez, they asked? WANT SOME "OOMPH?" Pete Domenici Jr. will do two hours with KKOB-AM radio's Jim Villanucci next Tuesday. Jim says he wants to see some "oomph" from Pete Jr. who gave a rather pedestrian announcement speech Sunday. R's have been debating on the conservative talk station if they can increase their chances of taking the Guv's chair by trying to unite behind one candidate and end the five way primary battle now underway. NASCAR, COKE AND SCHOLARSHIPS Here's some sponsor news that will interest you NASCAR fans. The American Indian Graduate Center in ABQ is holding a raffle to award a $5,000 travel package for two to the Memorial Day Nascar-Coca Cola 600 at Concord, North Carolina. Only 2,000 tickets will be sold for $25 each and you can get them here. The trip includes air, hotel and lunch and dinner with the drivers. Best of all, the raffle makes possible scholarships for American Indian students. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, January 20, 2010Bay State Bombshell Rocks NM: Game Changer For Our Guv Race As Di Unloads On Pete Jr., Plus: Opening Day In Santa Fe; Bill's Last Hurrah
Senator-elect Brown
The Bay State Bombshell sent political shrapnel flying coast to coast last night and some of it struck the Sweeney Convention Center near downtown Santa Fe where the elite of the state Democratic Party was gathered for its annual legislative dinner marking the opening day of the 2010 session. Taking the podium as news spread of the Dem Senate loss in Massachusetts, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, the all but certain Dem nominee for Governor, took an unexpected and some argued a panicky strike at Pete Domenici Jr., the latest and biggest name entrant in the five way race for the GOP Guv nomination. Denish did not mention the 50 year old ABQ lawyer by name but there was no mystery that she was shooting at the son of the legendary ex-US Senator Pete Domenici. Declared Di: We can't afford a Governor who has a name but no ideas or priorities! Forgive us if a word or two of that quote is out of place. We were in the back of the center getting sleepy and ready to count some sheep when Di dropped her jaw dropper. Di's words, uttered only moments after Scott Brown's stunning US Senate upset over Dem Martha Coakley, soon became evident to Blackberry watching Dems and set off breathless analysis among Alligators of every stripe attending the confab. And with good reason. When she singled out Domenici, Denish was predicting him as the eventual winner of the GOP nomination and her general election foe. And she also may have been signaling that her camp was stunned by the landslide Brown scored with independent voters. She may have felt the need to respond because the indys also hold the keys to the Governor's office here. Last night's Massachusetts Miracle for the first time called into question the comfort level enjoyed by the Denish camp. DIVINING DI One veteran state Senator chastised Denish for singling out Domenici. She should just let the Republicans fight it out among themselves. He is not necessarily their nominee and it only helps him when she goes after him. I think there was a bit of panic there... But others said the Massachusetts results were so consequential that Denish had no choice but to start to frame the race. Another Senator warned that Domenici Jr. is the most likely to raise big money because of the Brown US Senate win. "His father (former US Senator Pete Domenici) can work the phones for him. Republican money across the nation is going to loosen up and it is going to find its way into our Governor's race," said the Senator. Denish has $2.5 million in the bank, but if a national GOP feeding frenzy develops that amount could look like spare change. NM AND THE WHITE HOUSE The Brown victory was a body blow to the White House political operation. More of my Alligators were on the attack last night, saying if Governor Richardson had been given a job by Obama, making Denish Governor by appointment, then the dangerous trend that seems to be developing for Dems and perhaps Denish would have been softened here. They were again urging Obama to get Richardson out of here and give Denish the advantage of the incumbency or else risk giving the Guv's office to the R's this year and the state's five presidential electoral votes to the GOP in 2012. HER FIRST INSTINCT Denish's first instinct in the wake of the East Coast Democratic debacle seemed to be to veer right to curry favor with those jumpy independents. She issued this statement to mark the opening day of the 30 day legislative session: ...The primary focus this legislative session must be to create an economic environment that fosters new jobs, new opportunities and sound fiscal policies. That means balancing the budget--not on the backs of regular families--but by making government smaller and more efficient. Instead of debating which tax increase to embrace, legislators must focus their attention on which reform measures to implement...Major reform proposals must be debated and passed long before the legislature gives any consideration to raising taxes on regular families. But progressive Dems are arguing if Denish caters too much to the right it will make her appear more vulnerable, not strong, and dampen enthusiasm for her among the liberal base. Fortunately for Di, she faces no primary opponent.But for now the promise of a mundane Governor's race is gone. R's are justifiably energized. REPUBLICAN ROAR While we supped with the elite of the New Mexican Democratic establishment, our Republican Alligators were feeding us appetizing developments about that now even more important race for the GOP nod for Governor. They report that some top Republicans are now quietly moving to persuade Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez to drop her Guv bid and run for attorney general. This follows talk of similar discussions to have R Guv hopeful Janice Arnold-Jones also step aside ad run for secretary of state. Allen Weh and Doug Turner round out the GOP field. The R's still have no candidates for the down ballot races. But clearing the field for Pete Jr. may be easier said than done. His somewhat lethargic maiden speech Sunday did not send waves of excitement pulsating through Republican ranks. And there is still resentment that his famous father is trying to crown his son. However, the Massachusetts upset may overcome those objections. Certainly Diane Denish seems to think so, even if it is questionable whether she should be saying so quite so loudly. OPENING DAY Big Bill acknowledged the elephant in the room when he gave his final State-of-the-State speech as New Mexico's chief executive, but he quickly shunted it aside in favor of a long trip down nostalgia road, recounting a litany of his accomplishments. The dire straits of the state's finances seemed to demand more attention than Bill was willing to give them, but Richardson, the original "can-do" Governor, doesn't relish taking about what can't be done, which, in the end, will be the fate of this 30 day legislative session. (Speech transcript here. Complete video here.) At under 35 minutes, it was, as promised, Bill's shortest state-of-the-state. Applause didn't eat up much of the clock either because there was little to applaud as the 26th man to hold the governorship since statehood spoke of the worse economic downturn in our lifetimes. Richardson's middle of the road approach--cut spending and raise some taxes temporarily--reflects the consensus thinking in the New Mexican electorate as well as the intellectual classes, but the devil is in the details. Out here in the peanut gallery, we want permanent cuts that shore up state finances not just for a year, but for many years and we want those cuts written in stone before we accept the new taxes that we realize are necessary to provide services to one of the most impoverished populations in America. GOOD OL' ANALYSIS Former State Senate President Pro Tem Richard Romero, reflecting current thinking, told public television he senses that the major tax increase we are looking at is on the gross receipts levy. A quarter cent boost would take in $100 million of the $200 million in annual taxes that the Guv and key lawmakers want. Romero said he is counting Senate noses and it looks tight. In his speech, Richardson, to the disappointment of the ABQ Chamber of Commerce, put the nail in the coffin to reinstating the gross receipts tax on food, which was already dead in the House. However, he offered precious little else in the way of guidance on what taxes should be raised. The self-described "tax-cutting" Governor is more than happy to leave the public aspect of that bloody battle to lawmakers. Alas, he repeated to the point of ad nauseum, his insistence that his 2003 tax cuts for the wealthy not be touched, nor his sacred cow tax incentives. And there was little acknowledgement of the systemic problems facing the New Mexican economy. In Bill's world this is a garden variety economic recession that will soon vanish, leaving in its wake the seeds of plenitude he has planted. (He did say that the state must break its dependence on oil and gas revenues as a major source of state funding, but he did not say how.) NO BOUNCY BILL Richardson was less bouncy than in past state-of-the-state stemwinders. He says he is not a lame-duck, but it is clear he is operating more on automatic pilot than ever before. He has to be somewhat exhausted after seven years which have included a run for president, constant fights with the Legislature, ongoing play-to-pay investigations and now an economy that is softer than a soggy sopapilla. While this Governor was willing to hog it all during good times, advancing an ambitious and often productive agenda and taking full credit for it, he now looks for power sharing and reconciliation in the bad times. He half-joked: There have been times where we have stood far apart--when we stood behind bully pulpits pointing fingers, instead of sitting side-by-side at the table solving problems. I may have even been wrong, once or twice. This Governor and Legislature have aggravated citizens, overreaching in the boom years on spending, giving overly generous tax cuts to the well-off, taking a head in the sand approach to ethics; refusing to cut administrative bloat that permeates the entire body politic; failing to reform an educational system that has made economic advancement that much more difficult and offering incentives to create jobs that are tilted too much toward capital at the expense of labor. Despite this Richardson seemed to capture--if not the prevailing mood--at least the prevailing hope among the average citizen--when he neared the end of his speech and quoted former Governor Bruce King who died this past November: When asked what his legacy would be, he said “I guess just getting New Mexico to realize that if we were going to be successful, we were going to all work together and be one large family.” I believe in this time of need, if we are to succeed, we must work together, maybe even as a family. THE R'S RESPOND Rep. Gardner Richardson wasn't the only one who seemed somewhat detached from the reality of the New Mexican economic dilemma. Take a look at this reaction to the Guv's speech from House GOP Whip Keith Gardner: Let’s remember that our state’s budget is not in bad shape because of the economy, it is in bad shape because of reckless overspending. By making smart choices and exercising proper restraint we can put our state’s budget back on track.. Say what, Keith? The state has lost over 40,000 jobs in the past year; the oil and gas industry has been in a bear market; commercial real estate in he ABQ area is in a depression; job creation is at a standstill; the unemployment rate when you include the underemployed and those who have given up looking for work is well over 11 percent; housing values have crashed and consumer and commercial credit is as tight as a vise. Gardner's concern about overspending is grounded in reality, but the incredible shrinking New Mexican economy is a chief cause of the budget collapse as it generates less and less revenue. And Keith may have been distracted, but in his opening day speech the Governor reminded everyone that he has cut taxes over $1 billion in his seven years on the job. Republicans voted overwhelmingly in favor of Richardson's budgets and his tax cuts, another part of the equation that adds up to a budget shortfall of at least $500 million and possibly quite more. This is the home of New Mexico politics.Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, January 19, 2010Opening Day: A Lot Of Square Pegs At A Roundhouse; How To Fit In Tax Hikes & Spending Cuts, Plus: Bill's Legacy, And: Lots More GOP Guv Action
Sens. Smith & Jennings
Perhaps the most intriguing question of Legislative Session 2010 is whether Dem conservatives in the state Senate will play hardball over spending cuts, but in the final days agree that some form of tax increases are needed to balance the extremely out of balance state budget. (Up to a total $1 billion shortfall for the budget year we are in and the one that starts in July.) Senate Finance Committee Chairman John "Dr. No" Smith has been talking tough against most tax measures as has Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings. But chopping perhaps more than $600 million from the budget for the year that starts July 1st may unleash political forces the two legislative heavyweights may not anticipate. A blend of major cuts and the $200 million in tax hikes proposed by the Guv and key legislators seems a moderate road to follow. Smith earlier talked sympathetically of raising the gross receipts tax on food, but that's not going anywhere. So will he look elsewhere? Are Smith and Jennings holding back on supporting any tax increases because they fear they would lose leverage in getting needed spending cuts? Maybe. But if they get the cuts they want, do they then bend and agree to some kind of "revenue enhancement?" How the tax card is played in the Senate will be one of the most anticipated poker hands of the next 30 days. Have we and others been too optimistic that the tax deal will be an easier part of the legislative equation than the spending cuts? Or are both going to be cause for deadlock and a dreaded special session? THE GUV Big Bill will deliver his final state of the state address early this afternoon as the session formally gets underway. You can see it live starting around 1 p.m. on KNME-TV or KOB-TV or watch it streamed on the KOB Web site. Bill says it will be his shortest opening day speech ever. Who wants to talk about bad news for an hour? Richardson has gone through seven legislative sessions during fat times and has much to show for it, but this session could be the one that most defines his legacy. The economic decline is simply too big to be just be a blip in the history books. Can this Governor collaborate more and dictate less to get the deals that will right the state's listing economic ship? KOB-TV reported on their interview with Bill on the eve of the session: The governor stressed one of his legacies is tax cuts during less difficult times . "Well, you're looking at Bill Richardson, the tax cutter. I've cut a billion dollars in taxes for New Mexicans in my seven years. One billion dollars." And those tax cuts were quite justifiable when the state was toting up surpluses that are nearly equal to the deficits we now face. Heck, we even argued for larger rebate checks in some of the boom years. But Richardson's critics now say he has been imperiously inflexible in recognizing the new reality in which government is starved for revenue and faces a tax code that has clearly favored the well-off at the expense of the middle classes. Richardson cant freeze-frame where history judges his legacy. His billion dollars in tax cuts were of their time, now times have changed. Bill's insistence on not rolling back even one iota the 2003 tax cuts for the rich and also not touching even one of the many questionable tax credits on the books threatens to make him look more like a relic of the Clinton 90's than a trend setting leader of the 21st century. GOOD BILL He may have work to do to protect his economic legacy, but the chief executive continues to secure his place in history as one of the nation's leading advocates for human rights. He will again push for domestic partner legislation. If he didn't, most supporters would understand because of the budget crisis, but Big Bill will push ahead despite the Senate repeatedly shutting him out on this one. The Guv can also take credit for the surprisingly few allegations of civil rights violations we have heard coming out of the state corrections system (knock on wood) and for addressing the Hispanic achievement gap in education. MORE TAX TALK One of the hot tax topics this session is raising the excise tax on new car sales, currently three percent. If it went to four percent, it would mean an additional $34 million in annual revenue. But lobbyist Randy Traynor has a bone to pick on the tax being called a a "one percent increase." He's right. Raising the excise tax from three to four percent would be an increase in the tax of about 33 percent. That's a stiff boost, but the car dealers still have to make an argument on whey their product is subjected to a much lower tax than the nearly seven percent gross receipts tax on most other transactions. WHOEVER'S IN NEW ENGLAND They are starting to throw the towel in on the Dem US Senate candidate in today's special election in Massachusetts, and if the R there does indeed capture the seat left vacant by Ted Kennedy's death, the Republicans are going to look like a one-eyed cat peeping in a seafood store. That includes New Mexico where the GOP Guv nomination is going to be worth a lot more if Democratic Massachusetts falls to the R's. Fund-raising may be easier and maybe NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates might even find some candidates to fill out the lower ballot races like attorney general, secretary of state, auditor and treasurer which all remain vacant. You can't catch a wave, Harvey, unless you're surfing. And right now the R's are beached when it comes to the down ballot action. MARTIN AND JON Maybe even ABQ congressional candidate Jon Barela could get a second look if Massachusetts topples. He is patiently waiting for the landscape to change, but while he waits incumbent US Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich is preparing. His campaign reports he raised $267,000 in the final quarter of 2009, bringing his grand total to $1.156 million with cash on hand of over $834,000. Heinrich raised $238,000 in the third quarter so his fund-raising kept pace in the holiday quarter. R's are hoping Barela will come with at least $200,000 when reports are filed at the end of the month. He raised about $107,000 in the '09 third quarter, a performance that didn't excite D.C. R's eyeing the contest. MARTINEZ MONEY Susan Martinez GOP Guv contender Susana Martinez joined Dem Diane Denish and fellow Republican hopeful Janice Arnold-Jones in releasing early her fourth quarter financial report. She says she had contributions of about $143,000 and about $20,000 of in-kind contributions, leaving her with about $228,000 cash on hand. However, there is some spin in the Martinez report that needs to be questioned. She was criticized after her first report for having hardly any contributions from outside the Dona Ana County area where she serves as district attorney. For the latest quarter, she points out that 22 percent of her contributions come from ABQ. However, if you look through the report you will see that nearly all of those ABQ contributions are for only $25. Only a handful are for at least a hundred dollars. (There is one $10,000 contribution from a construction firm.) The point being that it appears the Martinez campaign went out and picked up a bunch of $25 ABQ contributions--perhaps while she was collecting nominating petition signatures--so she could give the impression that she is more than a regional candidate. But her major contributions remain stacked heavily in Dona Ana County and the oil industry. She still has a decent chance of getting 20 percent of the delegates at the March pre-primary convention to win a party sanctioned spot on the June ballot, but that's because she is the lone southern GOP contender, not that this is a candidacy that is catching fire statewide. NOT TOUGH ENOUGH? Reader Bobby Chavarria says the media hasn't been looking closely enough at Martinez's record. Well, it is only January, Bobby. But he sends this link where there are 102 comments pertaining to Susana--both favorable and unfavorable.
DOMENICI'S DAY ONE Martinez was the only GOP Guv hopeful who did not issue a formal reaction to the Sunday entry of Pete Domenici Jr. in the race (see my Monday blog), but you can be assured her camp isn't happy about it. ABQ State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who our analysts think may be hurt the most by the Domenici entry, had her campaign come with this: It was especially interesting listening to him highlight his lack of legislative experience. At a time when New Mexico is faced with budgetary problems, pay-to-play politics and a culture of corruption in Santa Fe it is apparent the next governor is going to have to be someone who does not require on the job training. If you said Pete Jr's candidacy among his GOP rivals was about as welcome as a cockroach in a salad, you would have it just about right. ALLIGATORS BUST BRIAN & PETE Then there's those Alligators. Does nothing get past them? Not much. Now they report that Domenici's campaign finance chair, ABQ cigar store owner Larry Monte, has deep Democratic ties. They send state finance records showing Monte, a registered Republican, has given a total of $4,000 in cash and in-kind contributions to Dem lieutenant governor candidate Brian Colon. Monte hosted a cigar party for Colon. Now those are some guys who know how to light a cigar from either end. DOMENICI ROBO CALLING A day after entering the race our insiders report Pete Domenici Jr. was on the phone last night with a recorded message for politically active Republicans. We are told he mentioned the service of his father, former US Senator Pete Domenici, gun laws, corruption in state government and family values. It was his first push to secure delegate support at the party's pre-primary convention slated for mid-March. The primary is June 1. We talked about the Domenici Jr. announcement with KSFR-FM Radio in Santa Fe. HELP OR HURT? Turner Does it help or hurt GOP Guv hopeful Doug Turner get support at the GOP pre-primary convention to be hanging out with Gary Johnson? You decide: GOP candidate for Governor Doug Turner and former GOP Governor Gary Johnson will protest new or increased tax proposals at the New Mexico State Capitol Tuesday, January 19. They will be joined by supporters, fellow Republicans and concerned members of the community. If Turner can motivate libertarian minded Republicans to get to that pre-primary convention leaning on Johnson may help. On the other hand, Gary Johnson's name is not on the ballot, but Doug Turner's is. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, January 18, 2010Pete Domenici Jr: A Name But No Dynasty; Announces Guv Bid; Dad By His Side; Can He Go The Distance? Analysis And Context On Your Big Monday Blog
Domenici Jr. w/ Mom & Dad
He may be 50 years old, but that didn't make it any easier for Pete Domenici Jr. to finally emerge from the shadow of his father, former US Sen. Pete Domenici, one of the most famous political figures in state history. But on Sunday, clinging to a podium and with celebrity dad sharing the stage with him in a cramped conference room at ABQ's Embassy suites, Pete Jr. plowed--and sometimes plodded through--a 15 minute speech that officially entered him into the 2010 race for the Republican nomination for Governor. (TV news coverage here and here.) It was an unassuming if not inauspicious beginning for the ABQ attorney who inherited a political name larger than life, but not the political dynasty that reached its peak in the 80's and gradually disintegrated and ended with Pete Sr's announcement in October 2007 that he would not seek re-election to a seventh US Senate term. But in the media age a big name is nothing to sneeze at--at least not when you are breaking from the gate. The attractive logo unveiled at the event, featuring a turquoise backdrop and the slogan, "Domenici--Governor for a New New Mexico," reinforced the prime attribute Domenici Jr. brings to this now five way contest. For ardent admirers of Domenici the elder, that name will be enough, but for voters at large, scrutiny of the attributes of Domenici the younger will be the key to their decisions. Domenici, who has never sought political office, will not set off a wave of enthusiasm that will force his competitors from the race. In fact, feisty Allen Weh was first with a stern attack on the would-be Governor: This election for Governor isn’t about political connections or surname; it’s about who has the experience to create jobs and get New Mexico back on the right track-- I believe I have that experience, and the ability to lead this state forward. I look forward to the debate. But Domenici revealed that he is not all hat and no cattle. While his maiden speech was pedestrian, his brief back and forth with the New Mexico press uncovered his mental agility and understanding of the key issues of the day. Domenici's handlers likely took note and future formal speeches may be kept to a minimum in favor of showcasing his soft-spoken yet erudite approach in one-on-one encounters. But the first emphasis will be on the hardball playing field of La Politica--getting Domenici at least 20 percent of the delegates at the GOP March pre-primary convention so he gets an official spot on the June 1 primary ballot. You can still get on the ballot without that 20 percent by gathering additional nominating signatures, but no candidate in state history has won the primary by that method. Not that Domenici Jr. should have much problem reaching the 20 percent mark. It's how much he can exceed that and whether he can create a head of steam that makes him, if not the prohibitive favorite following the convention, certainly the betting favorite. THE IMPACT The first victim of the Domenici entry may be his fellow ABQ R and State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. My panel of Alligators, convened for a special post-Domenici speech coffee klatch, noted that former Bernalillo County GOP Chairman Fernando C de Baca and wife Cecilia C de Baca were at Pete Jr's event and voicing support. They were in Janice's corner before Pete came out of hibernation. And Domenici's campaign manager, Doug Antoon, who was also seen as friendly towards Arnold-Jones, is now lost to Pete. (By the way, Antoon informs that he is dropping his GOP primary bid for the ABQ legislative seat of Rep. Jim White, who was appointed by the Bernco county commission to fill out the remainder of the legislative term of ABQ Mayor RJ Berry. However, sources in the Far NE Heights district say another White GOP opponent may be in the offing.) The C de Baca's, political veterans, are no slouches at organizing GOP conventions. And then there's the presence of new ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis who introduced Pete Jr. at his Sunday news conference. Lewis is seen as an up and comer in the GOP. He is also a pastor with important ties to the GOP Christian Right, which has never had exceptionally warm and fuzzy feelings about Domenici the senior. Lewis will serve as a co-chair of Domenici's campaign. THE PATH TO POWER After Western omelets and plenty of diner coffee, the Gators concluded that Pete Jr's path to the nomination is a three way road. He will rely on moderate ABQ R's his father always appealed to and many of whom may now abandon the camp of Arnold-Jones; he will have Councilor Lewis, the C de Baca's and others give him entree to social conservatives in the GOP and he will personally make inroads with the important oil and gas industry by virtue of his legal practice within that industry. Either cleverly or presumptuously, Pete Jr. Sunday also seemed to be looking further down the road--to a face-off off with likely Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish. He gave only limited support to reinstating the recently repealed New Mexico death penalty saying: I support the efforts underway to restore capital punishment for those who kill our law enforcement officers who sacrifice their lives trying to protect us. Our analysts seized on this because of the large role the Catholic Church has had in repealing the death penalty here and how support from the church--dominated in the Spanish North by Democrats--was so central to the election successes of Italian Catholic Senator Domenici. By not going all the way on a reinstatement of the death penalty, Domenici Jr. kept the door open to pursue northern Catholic support in a future battle with Di. It is a potential reassembling of the original Domenici coalition from the 70's--Republicans, independents and conservative Dems that most worries the majority party. It was no surprise that Javier Gonzales, the new chairman of the Dems, made a point to smack hard at the new hopeful: Since Republicans insiders have been unable to find a candidate for Governor with an actual record of fighting for New Mexico families, they’re settling for the biggest name they could find. The people of New Mexico won’t be fooled. It’s common for voters to ask candidates for office ‘what have you done for me lately?’ In this case, they’ll be asking ‘what have you done for me ever? The chairman then went on to list a number of environmental cases Domenici and his law firm handled that Gonzales asserted shows Pete Jr. is a friend of polluters. DI'S EASY TIME? While Dems were expressing subdued concern over the Domenici entry--one told me they fretted that some people will vote for him based solely on name recognition--they were also mindful and grateful that the day had finally arrived when Diane Denish will be more a of a sidebar attraction. For the next four months most of the action will be on the internecine warfare featuring Domenici and his rivals, leaving Di to her own devices. IN THE GOP TRENCHES Allen Weh As for the early stages of that GOP war, Republican analysts say that right now former GOP Chair Allen Weh and Domenici appear most likely to garner the 20 percent of the convention vote to be sanctioned for the primary ballot. They see Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez as the possible third candidate to make it on because she is the sole southern hopeful. Doug Turner's hopes are seen resting on a bloody fight between Weh and Domenici, with disgusted Republicans turning to him for relief and giving him a primary spot. Turner knows it, too, as evidenced by his statement on the Domenici entry: I want to welcome Pete Domenici Jr. into the field of GOP candidates and look forward to hearing his ideas about how to take back NM. There are so many good Republicans running because New Mexicans are desperate for a change from the policies and corruption they have endured for far too long... As mentioned, Arnold-Jones is seen hurting the most from the Pete parade. There's been talk circulating for several weeks among some Janice backers who want her to give up her Guv quest and seek the GOP nod for Secretary of State because of her record fighting for transparency and because she has only raised about $50,000 for the Guv battle. Domenici is expected to come quickly with large donor money and join Weh and Turner--who have loaned themselves funds--in the big money club. But Janice is hearing none of it yet, vowing to stay in and arguing that GOP voters are looking for a female standardbearer--either her or Martinez. But Janice would still have time to file for her ABQ NE Heights House seat if she came up short at the March pre-primary, a prospect that seems more on the radar than 48 hours ago. Martinez is not seen as shying away either--at least not yet. She has over $225,000 in the bank, but the problem now may be raising more. Much of her support has come from the oil and gas industry, and that money could dry up with Domenici's entry. He may be seen as a stronger nominee against Denish. Susana's supporters recently zapped Domenici for having too many possible conflicts because of legal contracts he has related to federal business in the state. They question whether he had help in getting business for his law practice from his famous father and warn that that could hurt the R's when they try to use the ethics issue against Denish. But Pete Jr. backers were telling us Sunday it will soon be time to check on the varied boasts Susana has been making about her record as district attorney. They wondered aloud about her plea bargaining record as well as her success, if any, of prosecuting drug dealers. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff says in the end Domenici the younger will get a nice kick-start from his famous name, but that he will have to deliver a distinct image of his own to voters. True enough. But the fear of Domenici's Republican foes is that the name alone could carry him far--too far for their liking--in this crowded primary contest. Expect them to do all they can to put some tarnish on that silver nameplate. THE COSMETICS Domenici Jr. did not get risky in making his opening bid. He chose a small room, with space only for a handful of supporters and TV cameras. He could not risk attempting to build a crowd and coming up short. The simplicity of the event was aimed squarely at the thousands of households that would see clips of it on TV. When we played the consulting game we also often did Sunday announcements because you generally got a clean shot on the early and 10 p.m. TV news on what is traditionally a slow news day. With the Domenici machine disbanded, Pete Jr. is more of a media figure, not a grassroots politician. The event played to that strength. It didn't take long for the new candidate to lose his beard. He strode into the announcement clean-shaven. A good move because, right or wrong, voters seem to distrust politicians with beards. Big Bill grew his after his election. Mayor RJ Berry has a moustache but no beard. Domenici's marital status might be an issue among social conservatives in the GOP. He is divorced and a single father of a nine year old daughter. His campaign describes his relationship with his ex-wife as cordial and takes pains to point out that they share the responsibility for raising their daughter. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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