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Thursday, March 18, 2010

The Econ Beat: Slammed Again; ABQ Firm Lets Go 700; State Official Reels; Food Tax During This? Plus: Obama Vs. The Lobos 

It's another body slam to the working class in the ABQ metro area--one of the biggest yet from the Great Recession--and reinforcing how crucial a role the economy will play in the state's 2010 election campaigns.

Nearly 700 workers, the vast majority making around or less than $25,000 a year, are going to be out of work by June as Convergys announces it has lost its contract with AT&T. The company had operated in ABQ since 2007.

Call center jobs, while generally low-paying, have been a bright spot on the state economic scene. Even normally sunny NM Economic Development Secretary Fred Mondragon was sent reeling by the news of the massive layoffs:

Very, very drastic...It's a very disheartening thing to see. It's a reflection of the economy, but that's no consolation to people who are losing their jobs.


The jobless rate in ABQ is already at a generations-high rate of 8.9% and this news could push it over the nine percent level, unheard of for this heavily government dependent metro.

And the viciousness of this economic plunge continues unabated in the Four Corners region. We are now breaking modern jobless records there with unemployment in the oil and gas rich region rocketing into the double digits. The state says:

Unemployment in the Farmington area rose to 10.4 percent in January, a sharp jump above the 9.4 percent unemployment numbers measured in December. Over the year, the region's unemployment rate has nearly doubled from the 5.3 percent of the work force that was jobless last January.


The widespread unemployment is contributing to gargantuan deficits in government in all corners of New Mexico. As the layoffs continue and further impede consumer spending, those deficits may gap larger, forcing further cuts in state and local government spending.

THE HUMAN TOLL


The human toll of all these lost jobs is, well, astounding. State Human Services Director Katie Falls reports nearly one third of our state's two million residents are now enrolled in publicly funded medical assistance programs.

(The state) has seen a 10 percent increase over the past year in participation in one of the several Insure New Mexico! publicly funded medical assistance programs with 541,639 New Mexicans
now participating.

More than 67 percent, or 323,939, of those covered are children, which is where we have focused most of our efforts over the past few years...We are pleased to serve as the safety net for those families who have lost their jobs and their insurance coverage and give parents the relief of knowing their children will continue to get the health coverage they need...

ON THE TRAIL


On the campaign trail the stark economic climate is starting to shape the rhetoric. Dem lieutenant governor candidates Brian Colon and Joe Campos are now trying to outdo one another over who is more against the dreaded food tax.

The tax managed to pass the recent special session of the NM Legislature and awaits action from Big Bill. Colon hit hard on this at the Saturday Dem preprimary convention:

New Mexico is facing hard times and we should not make those suffering pay more. A food tax is wrong. We must bring back a fair and progressive tax system...


And State Rep. Campos comes with this:

Campos is the only Lieutenant Governor candidate running who voted against both the tortilla tax and the food tax this year in the state legislature...

Leading liberal ABQ state Senator and Light Guv candidate Jerry Oritz y Pino may have been the first political victim of the food tax. He voted for it and failed to get 20 percent of the delegates needed at the preprimary to win an official spot on the June 1 ballot. He plans on continuing his campaign by filing extra petition signatures, but now Colon and Campos are in a spirited battle for progressive supporters who may be giving up on the senator.

DI'S DEAL


Soon-to-be Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish faces no June primary foe and is trying to stay in the center-right. She says she is against taxes on "working families" but refused to answer when asked if she would veto the food tax if she were governor.

That may be safe politics for now, but perhaps not for the November election when beating up on the food tax will be so popular it could put the piñata makers out of business.

Richardson is weighing a food tax veto, but does not have a populist record. What he does have is a state economy that continues to crater under his watch no matter how many articles the newspaper runs on its front page trying to deny that reality.

Anger, disgust and distrust continue to mount over the never-ending recession and accompanying job losses. Much of the loathing is reserved for a too-monied, disconnected political class that slaps taxes on those least able to afford them, refuses to restore a traditional, progressive NM income tax structure; refuses to throw overboard hundreds of overpaid political hires and refuses to prune a fat cat educational administrative class.

Other than that, have a nice day.

OBAMA VS. LOBOS


Come on, Mr. President. We know Wisconsin has more electoral votes than New Mexico, but did you have to predict our University of New Mexico basketball Lobos are going to lose to Marquette in the second round of the NCAA tourney? Or was there a political motivation to your prediction as this Wall Street Journal blog speculated:

Mr. Obama has third-seeded New Mexico going down to No. 6 Marquette in the second round, possibly as payback for Bill Richardson’s bungled nomination as commerce secretary...

Well, even the Prez agrees that the Lobos deserve to be the nine point favorite over Montana who they face off with tonight in the first round of March Madness.

MY BOTTOM LINES
Joe the Blogger
Remember Joe the Plumber?"

The man who had his fifteen minutes of fame in the '08 presidential campaign is in ABQ today campaigning for GOP Lt. Governor candidate Kent Cravens. A fundraiser will be held at 6:30 tonight at Casa Esencia. Tickets are going for $75 a pop, the low-end price for a plumber for an hour...

The wife of Dem Lt. Governor candidate Lawrence Rael, Kim Sanchez Rael, used to be involved in fundraising for presumed Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish, but the campaign says that is no longer the case:

This was true several years ago...Because of her position wit Fly Wheel Ventures, which invests funds from the State Investment Council, she is no longer involved in any of our fundraising and has not given money to the campaign since SIC fund-raising prohibitions went into effect last year...

We blogged that Sanchez was still active in Denish fundraising....

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Campos Reborn: Gets Official Light Guv Ballot Spot, Plus: Filing Action For Races Around The State, And: Death Calls For Ad Man Rick Johnson 

Campos & Denish
The lone statewide race providing major excitement for the Dems took on a new wrinkle Tuesday when the state party reversed a decision denying State Rep. Joe Campos an official spot on the June 1 primary ballot.

Alligator analysis immediately had it that the resurrected Campos might split northern Hispanic votes with Lawrence Rael, benefiting front runner Brian Colon. But some said Colon could be hurt if Rael and Campos both ganged up on Colon, the former Dem party chairman.

At first Campos was denied an official post on the ballot because he received 19.69 percent of the delegates at Saturday's preprimary convention, just shy of the magic 20 percent number needed to get an official ballot spot. But the party ruled that the state election code requires the number be rounded up to 20 percent and therefore Campos, a Santa Rosa area state representative, will be one of three candidates to get the official nod.

Campos told us he is not upset with Dem party chair Javier Gonzales, but there has been some tense moments between the Campos campaign and the party during the recounting process.

(GOP US House candidate Adam Kokesh received 19.5% at the preprimary. The state GOP is reviewing the matter to determine if Kokesh must be given an official ballot spot.)

The official position is important because it means credibility and hopefully for Campos--campaign money.

Besides becoming the first candidate to ever get on the ballot in this unusual manner, Campos also made some news by ripping what he called "the Richardson machine." The remark was aimed at Colon who Campos says is being backed financially and otherwise by friends of the Governor.

Colon's close association with the Guv has worried some Dems that it could be used against them in the fall, but this is the first time the issue has surfaced publicly, signaling that the Dem light Guv battle is going to get quite rough.

Diane Denish, the presumed Guv nominee, has not been seen by insiders as pushing for any of the light guv contenders. At one time, Rael's wife sat on Denish's finance committee.

The most liberal candidate in the light Guv field, ABQ State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, says he will file extra petitions to make the June 1 primary ballot. But much of his vote is going to bleed away because he fell short of the 20 percent at the convention.

Where the Ortiz y Pino votes go is critical and right now it looks as though Colon has first dibs on them.

THE TV PRIMARY


Who will have the money for May TV is the overriding question in the race for #2. Colon will have it and so will Rael, but how much? Rael is asking for upwards of a thousand dollars a donor for a March 23 fundraiser at ABQ's Amici restaurant and co-hosted by former Dem State Rep. Dan Silva. Campos loaned himself $100,000 early on, but he is going to have to raise or loan himself more if he is to compete on the tube with Brian and Lawrence.

MORE PREPRIMARY FALL OUT

And there was some more fallout from Saturday's Dem preprimary convention. Republicans got word that some delegates voted for Republican Jon Barela instead of Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich and were trying to make hay out of it, asking that the ballots be made public.

The Dems say no official votes were cast for Barela but "roughly 10" ballots were pasted with Barela stickers and turned in for counting. The anti-Heinrich move was spearheaded by former State Rep. Robert Aragon who publicly endorsed Barela last year and was stripped of his ward chairmanship because of it. The state party came with this response to the shenanigans:

What the few fringe individuals who have a history of supporting Republican candidates did is nothing more than a cheap and juvenile prank. We are talking about roughly 10 stickers out of nearly 2000 delegates...In this national climate the real story is that every Congressman in the country would love to enjoy the true sign of strength that Rep. Heinrich enjoys with 99% support of his base.

The Dems say all the preprimary ballots will be available for public inspection at party headquarters in "a couple of days."

FILING DAY

Rep. McCoy
Tuesday was filing day for all 70 state House seats as well as statewide and other offices. Here's a list of who filed with the secretary of state and here are the Bernalillo County filings. Let's cherry pick some of the action for you:

State Rep. Kathy McCoy is hanging up her political spurs. She had told us recently that she would leave her East Mountain legislative seat to run for the Bernalillo County Commission, but she did not file Tuesday for the seat being vacated by GOP Commissioner Michael Brasher nor the legislative seat she was first elected to in 2004.

Media company owner Wayne Johnson filed for the commission seat on the GOP side. He is unopposed and the likely replacement for Brasher who is term-limited. Janet Saiers filed for the Dems.

As for Kathy's legislative seat, two R's who have previously run for it are back. Dan Salzwedel and Jim Smith are the contenders, with Salzwedel starting as the front runner, according to Alligators in the East Mountains. No Dem filed for the seat.

SPEAKER CHALLENGE AND MORE

A nephew of state Rep. Jim Trujillo (D-Santa Fe) is challenging House Speaker Ben Lujan in the June 1st primary. Trujillo says he tried to discourage the challenge.

Out in Indian Country, former Dem State Rep. and McKinley County Dem Chairman Irvin Harrison is challenging freshman incumbent Sandra Jeff as is Billy Moore. That will be one to watch.

Three R's filed for the ABQ West Side House seat held by freshman Dem Ben Rodefer. Retired police officer Paul Pacheco, with long ties to the area, starts strong. Also running are Tom Molitor and David Doyle. Rodefer will have to run hard to keep this seat which he took from the R's in the '08 Obama landslide.

Bill McCamley, who sought the 2008 southern Dem US House nomination against Harry Teague and lost, may have found a job. He will start as the heavy favorite for the Dem nomination for a southern Public Regulation Commission seat. Also running on the Dem side is Ronald Rees. There are six R's seeking the nomination for this seat held by Sandy Jones who gave it up to run for the Dem land commission nod. It's gone R in the past, so McCamley will have to work it to win it.

Here's the AP wrap on all the PRC candidate filings.

The Dems, as usual, seem well-positioned to keep their lock on most of the down ballot statewide offices. Our analysts also think they have a good chance of picking up the land commission spot, currently held by Republican Pat Lyons. Former land commissioner Ray Powell is the heavy favorite for both the primary and general election.

HERRERA'S POLITICAL HEALTH
Mary Herrera
There have been rumblings about the political health of Dem Secretary of State Mary Herrera, but she drew no primary challenger. Republican State Senator Dianna Duran is a name challenger, but is not expected to have the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to oust an incumbent.

Then there's the history. There hasn't been a Republican SOS elected in our state since the 1920's. Recent ethical charges leveled against Herrera aren't pleasant, but insiders say they don't violate what is a pretty broad "zone of tolerance" around here.

But that isn't stopping Herrera from feeling the heat to give walking papers to Deputy Secretary of State Don Francisco Trujillo. His foes charge he has been given too much power by Herrera. Top Dems we have spoken with would like to see Herrera shake up the office and send a signal that she takes seriously the ethics and competence concerns.

While Mary is comforted by the historic Dem voting trend, she will want to be mindful of that unease some Dems feel and also keep in mind that no trend is guaranteed to last forever.

WHO IS BILLY DRIGGS?

Do you know who Billy J. Driggs is? He filed as a write-in candidate for the Democratic nod for Governor. The cappuccino is on us for the first correct ID on Driggs.

Okay, I just did a Google on Driggs. He is listed in the phone book in Rodeo. NM which is south of Lordsburg and near the Arizona border. Here's his phone number: (575) 557-1142. So get busy and be a cappuccino sipping Alligator for us.

RICK JOHNSON IS DEAD

One of the legacy names in the New Mexico advertising business
has died. Rick Johnson, 66, was claimed by pancreatic cancer this week.

Johnson was a heavy hitter in the ad game since the 1970's. His agency, Rick Johnson and Company, did not do a lot of political campaigns, but did handle the ads for Senator Domenici's 1984 re-election. Domenici won in a landslide over Dem Judy Pratt.


Johnson expanded the agency through the years, bidding on and winning a variety of city of ABQ and state tourism contracts.

He started his business with one bank as a client and went on to build probably the most successful ad agency in NM history. It still thrives today, although Johnson sold his shares in the company last year as did his wife Debbie Johnson
.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Now The Money Chase; Di's Purse Play & Susana's Low Hurdle, Plus: Losers Vow To Win; Won't Get Out, And: The Cargo Book: One Pick And One Pan 

Talk about contrasts. Following their triumphs at their weekend preprimary conventions, Democrat Diane Denish and Republican Susana Martinez start up on the critical fund-raising circuit. Denish hit the mailboxes with an event invitation priced at $1,000 a pop while Martinez was pleading for $25 donations on Facebook. Not that Martinez isn't going for bigger money, but this example does bring to the fore the financial advantage the Dems still have, despite the excitement the GOP primary is generating in political circles.

Denish has been running unopposed for the Dem nomination since 2007 and has amassed a war chest of $2.1 million. But Republicans have had a five way primary scrap and major GOP donors are seen as holding back until the smoke clears. Even with her big Saturday preprimary win, Martinez may find that the big GOP money will find it safe to stay on the sidelines. The race is still too unpredictable.

Another issue is the economy. It is simply more difficult for all the candidates--including Denish--to raise large individual contributions when business continues to get hammered and unemployment soars.

From a PR standpoint, Martinez's $25 solicitation may look good, but over at the Allen Weh camp they may smell weakness. Weh's major decision--and perhaps the deciding one of the 2010 GOP cycle--will be how large a personal check he will write to close out his campaign. One of our Republican Alligators, close to the action, said he believes Weh will need about $500,000 to wage an effective closing effort.

Weh is not releasing regular money reports, but we do know he has already tapped his personal funds for $300,000.

BRING YOUR PURSE

More on Di's latest $1,000 bash. It's an all ladies affair called "The Power of the Purse." Among those listed as hostesses are Clara Apodaca, former NM first lady and President of the National Hispanic Cultural Center Foundation, ABQ high-end real estate agent Susan Feil and businesswoman Maria Griego-Raby. ABQ Republican attorney Deborah Peacock is also listed as a hostess. Didn't she hear about Susana?

Ladies, we don't know what kind of purse you need to carry to the Di event, but we helpfully provide this link to Nordstrom's. Or maybe you do Buffalo Exchange in this economy.

THEY WON'T GO

We've repeated it ad nausem: no candidate who has failed to get 20 percent at a preprimary convention has ever gone on to win the June primary. But the candidates don't seem to care. Just about every hopeful who failed to get the 20 percent for the various statewide offices at the preprimaries was sending a news release Monday saying they are not getting out. They will submit additional petition signatures to get on the June ballot. That includes Dem Light Guv candidate Joe Campos who took a hit when he fell just a couple of votes short of the magic 20 percent mark.

(New Dem party chairman Javier Gonzales was still embroiled in a backroom controversy Monday over how the votes for Light Guv were counted at the Saturday preprimary, but the party announced Campos fell short).

It's going to take a whole lot of money to overcome history. And that's the problem. A poor showing at the preprimary usually dries up the money, so getting on the ballot via the petition route turns out to be a waste of time and money. We'll see June 1 if this is the year history's harsh verdict on lousy preprimary performances is overturned.

HARVEY'S PLEA

NM GOP state chairman Harvey Yates and his crew are taking hits from operatives in the GOP Guv campaigns. They say he and his staff have been biased toward Susana Martinez, but there's not much evidence offered. (A pollster who has done work for the state party is married to a Martinez consultant.) Yates came with this missive in the aftermath of Saturday's preprimary that is aimed at supporters of guv hopefuls Doug Turner and Janice Arnold-Jones:

Perhaps, this is the time for each contender who garnered less than 20% of the delegate support to pause and consider quietly whether his or her continuation in the race would enhance or diminish Republican chances in November. If a winning candidate represents well your beliefs, and would furnish to this party a respectable and viable nominee for the position you sought, you might do the party a service by throwing your support to that candidate.

Yates may be trying to spare the party more fracturing, but he isn't going to make Domenici, Turner or Arnold-Jones happy as they say they will submit additional petition signatures and stay in the race, despite not reaching the 20 percent mark.

Arnold-Jones' campaign says she will not file for her state House seat today, choosing to bet her political future on what will now be a quixotic bid for the GOP nomination.

THE SPIN ZONE

And how about this one? Pete Domenici Jr. says on his Web site the 2010 preprimary convention was a "great success." Say what, Pete? He came in last in a field of five, garnering less than five percent of the delegate vote. But Domenici says his claim of success is based on his collecting "thousands of signatures" so he can be on the June 1 primary ballot.

But the preprimary has nothing to do with collecting signatures. It had to do with winning the votes of some 400 delegates. That means grassroots organizing and messaging, not getting John Does on a piece of paper.

Domenici's campaign sniffed at the GOP preprimary, calling it a "straw poll" and pointing out that his candidacy was late-starting and that he did not expect a strong performance. But now they're touting a performance that has caused major bleeding to their man, and probably to the reputation of Daddy Domenici, the once powerful US Senator. Great convention success? That's not in the spin zone; that's in the ozone.

A READER WRITES...

Joe, I read your piece on the state House seats targeted by the Republicans. With regard to the District 7 state Representative Andrew Barreras race, please keep in mind that Republican candidate Tim Lardner ran against Representative Barreras in the last election and experienced a significant loss...

THE CARGO YEARS

We have two takes for you today on the new autobiography from former NM Governor Dave Cargo (1967-70) who was dubbed "Lonesome Dave" for his independent streak. The first is from author and longtime NM Republican Kurt Lohbeck who finds much to like in the book. The second is from an anonymous reader who pans the new volume. First up is Kurt:

I first met Dave Cargo in 1962 when he decided to run for the New Mexico Legislature from Bernalillo County. As a Republican! I was chairman of the College Republicans.

Most Albuquerque campaigns in those days were run out of the coffee shop at the downtown Hilton, and the bars at the Alvarado and Franciscan hotels. Dave was familiar with those locales, but he also did something weird. He campaigned door to door, and primarily in the South Valley. Then something stranger happened. He won!

Dave moved to New Mexico from Michigan, that hotbed of Republican liberals. Nobody of any political acumen gave him a prayer to win an election in this state. Not only did he win a state House seat, in 1962, with strong Valley support, but was re-elected. And he began to drag this Western state into the 20th Century despite the hemming and hawing from those in control.

His next Don Quixote adventure was to run for governor. In 1966, he campaigned in the northern counties like no Republican ever had. He beat the Republican establishment in the primary and the Democratic powers in the general election. He had no entourage, no staff, just himself and a beat-up old car worth about $200. A newspaper reporter started calling him, “Lonesome Dave.” That moniker has been with him ever since.

This book is a valuable history of that age. Names of everybody from around this Land of Enchantment. Who did what to or for whom? It should be read in New Mexico history classes. It wouldn’t hurt for our current crop of politicos to read it as well.


ANOTHER TAKE

And now a take from our anonymous critic:

I finished Lonesome Dave the other night--or rather gave up at page 197--what a mess!

...I can find so trace of any real editor ever getting his or her hands on it. The result is a confused and repetitive mess of a memoir. Some of it is just basic lack of storytelling.

We learn all about Dave's schooling & youthful employment & immersion in politics--his arrival in NM in his '49 Chevy, his law practice, name dropping, more about legislative apportionment than anyone ever wanted to know, more name dropping and campaigning lonesome style. Then suddenly he's being sworn in as Governor with his child bride and kids at his side.


Wait a minute! Who's Ida Jo? How did they meet? The first encounter with her family? The romance, etc. etc.? See what's missing here? I think Dave was very poorly served here. Oh well, the old boy deserved better...


We'll give the final word to Cargo and an excerpt that resonated with us. From the prologue of "Lonesome Dave:"

I ran for other offices after my two gubernatorial terms. I mostly fell short. But, over the years I've come to realize that being governor was the job for me; the one I loved and the one that could have done forever and ever.

Nothing does last forever, though, except perhaps our memories and dreams. I know that in my mind, though--and I hope in yours as well--that I will always be--Governor Dave Cargo.


Cargo is now 80. He lives in ABQ and remains engaged in national and local politics. His book is available here.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, March 15, 2010

The Aftermath: Complete Wrap On Preprimary Conventions: All The Major Races Handicapped And Analyzed; What Now? 

Martinez, Domenici & Weh
Winning nearly half the vote in a five way field sure isn't what it used to be. Look what they're printing up at Susana Martinez headquarters:

"I won the Republican preprimary convention and all I got was this lousy T-shirt."


Not really. But the way Allen Weh and Pete Domenici reacted to Martinez's 47% landslide, you would think she just won the title of Best Homemaker of Quay County, not the first spot on the June 1st primary ballot and a realistic chance to take the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nomination.

And speaking of "realistic" chances. That is not the category under which you file the candidacies of Doug Turner and ABQ state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. Not after they fell far shot of the 20% needed to win an automatic spot on the primary ballot. Arnold-Jones has two days to gather a couple of dozen petition signatures and file for her House seat. If she doesn't and opts to stay in the Guv's race it appears it will be her political swan song.

Doug can tap his bank account for personal cash to stay in this deal, but why? Especially since he is being touted now as a possible future chairman of the state GOP with the chance to stamp his brand on the party.

Pete Domenici Jr. is still in the pool of candidates--because he comes from a certain gene poll, certainly not due to his dismal last place showing at Saturday's confab.

Domenici utterly failed to manage expectations. He went on statewide TV and radio and declared he would get the magic 20%, even as his operatives tried to downplay his chances. He did not even manage five percent Saturday. The ensuing damage is not as great as that earthquake that rocked Chile last month, but the major cracks in the foundation of the Domenici campaign are now there for all to see.

Martinez beat Domenici like a rented mule, but old warhorse Allen Weh managed to keep trotting and was the only other contender other than Martinez to jump the 20 percent hurdle. Weh made so many enemies with county chairs when he was state party boss they wanted to put his picture on urinal cakes. He got pay back from them Saturday when he ws kept to 26 percent of the vote.

WHAT NOW?


Martinez has to build on her preprimary win and show that she's more than queen for a day. The money is essential as Weh was busy during the Great Bull Market scoring federal aviation contracts and making a bundle. He can write a big check and has already ponied up $300,000. He might write a bunch more zeroes given how much more the GOP nomination is worth than only six months ago.

Martinez, the Dona Ana County district attorney, had about $228,000 in the bank at the end of the year. She might tap into more SE oil money. And with her blow the doors off win, she might even try to convince some national R groups to ignore tradition and come down on her side with cash contributions.

We asked someone without a dog in the R fight--a top Dem operative to analyze for us the Martinez candidacy and what lies ahead:

Primaries are about two things--demographics and name ID (i.e. money for TV). Neither favor her. Even with her preprimary win Weh will have more money as will Domenici (who starts with much better name ID thanks to dad). Her bigger problem is the turnout for Republican primaries--it skews heavily towards older white men. We've seen this campaign before--Pearce V. Wilson in a GOP US Senate primary (Pearce won). Having said all that, Martinez is doing everything right...

We like that, but also keep in mind that the Dems would much rather see Weh as the opponent of Diane Denish than Martinez.

PETE'S PROBLEMS

Domenici has raised about $300,000, but we don't know if the bottom is about to fall out of his campaign or not. While he has no organization and minimal money, he does have that name. And we've blogged that if someone can win the primary without winning the preprimary, it would be Domenici. We wrote that before the Saturday Afternoon Massacre. A five percent showing by the son of the state's longest ever serving US Senator? Maybe there's an astrologer somewhere who would call that a good omen, but we haven't met them.

Domenici came in at 29% in the first round of public polling, far ahead of Weh and Martinez, but soon she and Weh will also be much better known. And the attacks on Domenici will come hard and fast. It gets tougher for Pete Jr. from here, not easier.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff likens Domenici's situation to that of Marty Chavez who was defeated for the ABQ mayor race when he was pinched from two sides by Richard Romero and eventual winner RJ Berry. He says after Saturday's setback Domenici will need to spend all the money he can raise and then some.

DEM LIGHT GUV

Former Dem party chairman Brian Colon retains ownership rights to the title of front runner in this one, but the race is not in the bag. Lawrence Rael was the only other light guv contender other than Colon to get over the magic 20% mark and lives to fight in the June primary.

Liberal ABQ state Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino rallied, but he came up short with 19%. Will Jerry's supporters and other liberals now gravitate toward Brian? He has been courting them and that could prove crucial to this race. (Some insiders said Jerry's support of the controversial food tax may have cost him the handful of votes he lacked to reach the 20% mark).

Colon has raised the most money and has delivered on his stated goals. Now he'll be buffeted by charges that he is too close to Big Bill whose popularity has plummeted. He will also be scored in below the radar chatter for not being a native Hispanic--he is of Puerto Rican heritage, but has lived in NM since he was a toddler. He will also take hits for the dysfunctional 2008 state Dem presidential caucus. And then there is his tense relationship with soon-to-be Guv nominee Diane Denish.

But none of this stopped Colon with party insiders. After all, Colon was being loyal to the governor who made him party chair. And Rael still needs to convert his preprimary performance into campaign cash and better media than he has so far unveiled.

Santa Rosa area state Rep. Joe Campos missed winning an official spot on the ballot by the narrowest of margins. After a recount, he had 19.69%. He could go the petition route to get on the ballot, but fund-raising is now more problematic. Tuesday is filing day for the state House seats. Campos could gather up the signatures necessary to retain his seat. No one has ever won a primary election after failing to achieve 20% of the vote at the preprimary.

ABQ state Senator Linda Lopez came in fifth in the light guv duel. She received five percent.

GOP LIGHT GUV

As expected this has become a three way race with Santa Fe's JR Damron failing to reach the 20 percent mark. What was unexpected was the blow-out margin toted up by former Clayton area state representative Brian Moore. He scored 41% of the delegates and throws this race into the toss-up column, if not the "lean-Moore" column. ABQ state Senator Kent Cravens came in second with 28%; 2002 GOP Guv candidate John Sanchez was third with 23% and Damron received only 8%,

Moore is well-liked among state R's and he made a point of announcing just before the convention that he will loan himself $100,000 to make the race. Sanchez, now a veteran politico, is a wealthy roofing contractor whose fortune has intimidated Cravens and Moore. But Moore downsized Sanchez some at this convention and will now force him to spend that money. Cravens is highly popular in big Bernalillo County, but he needs campaign cash to make a statewide presence.

Sanchez can argue with credibility that he got in a little late, but Moore can argue--perhaps with more conviction-- that the party and voters are looking for newer faces.

NORTHERN CONGRESS

Party insiders are not comfortable with gadfly Republican candidate Adam Kokesh who was narrowly deprived an official spot on the June 1 primary ballot--he came up half a point shy, scoring 19.5% of the delegates. Kokesh says he will file additional petition signatures to get on the June ballot.

Farmington oil man Tom Mullins overwhelmed Kokesh with 80%. Mullins is now the favorite to take this, even in the face of national libertarian money coming in for the 28 year old Kokesh. The caveat is that Mullins may need to spend a reasonable amount on mail and media if that national dough continues to flow.

When all is said this nomination for the right to take on Democratic Congressman Ben Lujan is like fighting for a deck chair on the Titanic. The seat is heavy Dem.

DEM LAND COMMISSIONER
Powell
If former land commissioner Ray Powell puts together a decent campaign kitty, he should not have much of a problem taking the nomination in this race. He blew the doors off at the preprimary, scoring 44% of the delegates in a four way race. That's a clear signal to campaign donors that Powell is the likely winner.

In 2006, Powell was denied the nomination by Jim Baca as the Hispanic North went huge for the former ABQ mayor, but this time around the two Hispanic contenders--Santa Fe County Commissioners Harry Montoya and Mike Anaya--failed to get to 20 percent. And Public Regulation Commissioner Sandy Jones also came up short of the 20, making the odds of Powell winning all the better.

All the candidates say they will try to stay in via the petition route, but their failure to get even 20 percent is a testament to Powell's appeal.

GOP LAND COMMISSIONER

Portales area rancher Matt Rush is as close to a foregone conclusion as you can get. He scored 65 percent of the delegates and was the only one of four hopeful to even get over the needed 20 percent. Rush has across the board backing from party insiders and the money will now follow.

DEM COURT OF APPEALS

Judge Vanzi & Montoya
A nasty behind the scenes battle has been going on between incumbent Court of Appeals Judge Linda Vanzi and challenger Dennis Montoya. You're going to be reading about this one in the newspaper. Vanzi trounced Montoya at Saturday's preprimary, getting 72% of the vote to Montoya's 28 percent. However, Hispanics often make up over 50% of the turnout in Dem primary elections, keeping Montoya alive.

Vanzi backers say Montoya is running out of vengeance because of a ruling Vanzi made in a case she presided over as a Bernalillo County district judge. Vanzi approved a settlement in a wrongful death case, but did not approve Montoya's fee and filed a complaint against him. Recently that disciplinary board complaint against Montoya has been circulating via email. Now Vanzi's sexual identity has become grist for the mill on the email circuit.

Somebody grab the popcorn. The entertainment hour has begun.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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