Allen Weh must feel pretty comfortable with his position for the June 1 GOP Guv primary. He levels an attack in his latest TV ad, but it's not aimed at any of his Republican rivals, but at Diane Denish who will be the Dem Guv standard-bearer. He faults her for using federal stimulus funds from several years ago to pay for the state jet for a ride to Gallup. Weh swipes:

As governor, I’ll run the state like a business… I’ll get rid of the jet… and bring fiscal sanity to Santa Fe.

Di's rejoinder: This cheap attack is somewhat ironic coming from Allen Weh, given that he owns a private jet company (CSI Aviation) that has made more than $225 million on the backs of taxpayers through government contracts.

That Weh is going after Di and not Susana Martinez or Pete Domenici Jr. speaks volumes about where he feels this campaign stands. He is trying to make it appear that this is a done deal and that the 2010 race for Governor is between Di and him.

He has a case.

Weh has been designated the GOP front runner by our Senior Alligators because he is coming with an essential Republican message delivered with high production values and a satchel full of cash to get that message delivered. The TV, produced by Dawson McCarthy Nelson Media, a Republican ad firm in DC, stands above the field. In the latest spot they go to work not only on Denish but on the retired Marine's prickly personality. They show a picture of a shiny pick-up truck and Weh nearly snickers: "This is how I'll get myself to parades."

That unanswered sassiness is enough to have the Alligators jumping out of the river ready to wrestle this fella and drag him into a real campaign. But they're not on the ballot.

The Dems insist that Weh is a crazy old man who as GOP chairman brought the party to the brink of ruin. They think he'll crack open like Humpty-Dumpty in the heat of a general election. Maybe so. But that's then. For now the old solider soldiers on, executing his battle plan and without much interference from his four rivals.

PETE'S PLACE

Pete Domenici Jr. came with his first round of TV ads Monday and he isn't going to lay a glove on Weh with them. Domenici, who shaved his beard for his Guv announcement back in January, apparently tired of the consultants telling him politicians who wear beards in the campaign don't win. The beard is back.

But while there is a new beard there is not a new Domenici when one is sorely needed. He narrates the ads, but it sounds too much like he is reading them. And the message lacks edge when edginess is now imperative to break through.

"My life's work has allowed me to help solve natural resource and water issues all over the state. I know New Mexico. We need to create better jobs and give our children better schools and it's time to rid New Mexico of backroom politics." Domenici intones.

That's not exactly going to rock the boat.

And Daddy Domenici makes a cameo. The ex-Senator and son are shown at the end of one ad seated in chairs chatting away as an announcer says, "Domenici--A trusted name in public service."

Trouble is, these two thirty seconds ads so lack any sense of urgency that you might think the father and son are in rocking chairs.

We blogged yesterday that our insiders report Domenici has made a $70,000 cable buy for the duration of the campaign and purchased no broadcast TV. Now the campaign says the ads will be shown on the major over-the-air network affiliates, but don't anticipate anything significant there.

HOW THE RACE STANDS

With Janice Arnold-Jones broke, Doug Turner reluctant to pull the money trigger to compete and the Domenici ads falling flat, the state now awaits the next move from Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez. She seems to be the only obstacle left on the battlefield for Weh to overcome as he slowly marches toward his objective.

THE READER MAILBAG

Lots of cool stuff in the email we want to bring your way, so off we go...

Reader David Baltz writes of our Monday headline saying Arizona had taken a "hard-right turn" when it comes to immigration policy:

Wow! With 70% of Arizonans in favor of the crackdown, the “hard-right” must be growing! But seriously, it’s not about politics, Joe. It’s about JOBS and SECURITY.

David may have a point about our perspective. A national Rasmussen poll shows 60% of voters asked are in favor of the tough immigration law signed last week by the Arizona governor. 77% of Republicans favored the measure while Dems were equally divided. But what do you think polling would show in New Mexico? Probably the opposite of those Rasmussen numbers.

WHO'S TO BLAME?

Reader Vicki Osborne writes:

Sorry, Joe, but I can’t agree with you that it was solely Wall Street that brought down this country. It started way back with the Clinton administration pushing Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae & the banks to give subprime loans. If I understand correctly, the administration basically demanded the banks offer the same loans as Fannie and Freddie. Wall Street did plenty of damage itself, but the government regulators had a huge part in it by wanting people to buy homes that couldn’t realistically afford to.

Thanks, Vicki. There's plenty of blame to go around, for sure. But you can't dismiss the historic greed and gambling than engulfed Wall Street as solely the fault of government regulators. As I wrote Monday, we've seen this movie before--in the 1930's---and we'll see it again as long as we remain the emotionally driven creatures we are.

And speaking of the banks, First Community Bank, New Mexico's third largest, is hanging by a thread. The commercial real estate crash and the loans made when it was in a bubble are the reason. Is it time for those regulators Vicki wrote of to end this pain for all involved and engineer a marriage with a stronger partner?

CRUNCHING TACO NUMBERS

Rep. Martin Heinrich's office writes us in response to concerns expressed here Monday by a member of the NM National Guard's fighter wing known as the "Tacos." The storied wing is being disbanded and our Taco fears the replacement mission will not have jobs for all the nearly 1,100 associated with the Tacos at Kirtland Air Force Base:

We'll watch for that official agreement to see how firm the language is regarding all those jobs.

DARREN AND DINELLI

In our Monday blog we said former ABQ Public Safety Director Pete Dinelli was making less than current Public Safety Director Darren White. However, a city records check shows Dinelli was getting $62.29 an hour vs. $60.10 for White. That means Pete was making a couple thousand more a year than his successor. Not that either is starving. Darren's salary works out to about $125,000 a year.

This is it---the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The tough new law makes it a state crime for undocumented immigrants to be in Arizona. It is the only state with such a law. Opponents claim some provisions of the far-reaching legislation will lead to racial profiling, but Arizona Republicans have been steadfast in their support.

Martinez's high profile on immigration and the renewed interest in the subject could benefit her more in the south where immigration concerns are more intense than the ABQ metro. But RJ Berry did use the "Sanctuary City" argument to his benefit in a multiple candidate race for ABQ mayor. Martinez might pick up some stray votes in ABQ where so far her campaign has failed to find much footing.

But the overall dynamic of the GOP race seems to remain unchanged. Weh has a ton of money, is on the air heavy with well-received TV ads and no one is attacking him yet. Martinez may have received a break on the immigration issue among GOP voters who want the Arizona approach, but Weh still owns the economic message so central to GOP politics.

THE NORTHERN ANGLE
Roman Maes
Dems see the tough Arizona immigration measure as a sure fire winner for their team in November, no matter who the GOP nominee is. They may be right. From Santa Fe former state senator turned lobbyist Roman Maes writes:
THE TV BUYS

Our Alligators come now with the exclusive info for you on the all-important campaign TV buys. In the GOP Guv contest, from April 21--27 Allen Weh bought $54,000 in broadcast TV and $2,140 on ABQ cable. His total spending since he went on TV in mid-March is $172,000 in broadcast and $14,000 in cable buys. Total spent: $187,000.

Martinez from April 20-26 spent $40K. That's the same buy she’s been at for three weeks. She also bought a thousand dollars of El Paso cable so she’s on at a very light level there. We had mentioned earlier that her illegal immigration spot was not airing in the south. Our point being it was not on the broadcast networks there. In total, Martinez has spent $128,371 on TV.

So far Weh has spent about 47 percent more on TV than Martinez.

Pete Domenici Jr. begins airing TV ads today. However, so far he has purchased only cable TV. Our insiders say the buy is for $70,000, spread from now until Election Day. With low cash on hand, that may be his only major TV purchase before the June 1 primary.

Not buying broadcast TV--the major network affiliates like KOB and KRQE--is a gamble for Domenici. The over-the-air stations, with their large audiences, move the polling numbers, with cable augmenting that power.

Doug Turner has cut four TV spots--more than Martinez and Weh--but he is spending little--less than $9,000 this month on ABQ broadcast TV. The campaign is pushing the spots on the Internet.

THE CITY BEAT

The city of ABQ is facing a $66 million deficit for the budget year that starts July 1st, prompting the Mayor to propose that city salaries be cut 3 percent. So why is Rob Perry, the just hired city attorney, being paid $135,000, a full $25,000 more than his predecessor Bob White? And why is Robin Dozier Otten, director of Family and Community Services Dept., being paid more than the $97,000 starting salary given most directors? Perry, White and Dozier Otten all served together in the cabinet of GOP Governor Gary Johnson in the 1990's.

Is Mayor Berry's knife too dull when it comes to cutting at the top? Just asking.

And what about the overtime abuse continuing at the ABQ police department. Nearly $10 million a year in overtime? Even after several years of outrage over this? And aren't the same cops still we have seen on the overtime hit list? Is the administration ready to tackle that one? The city council?

And on that same topic, this budget deficit keeps exploding. At first we were told it would be $15 or $20 million. We are now up to $66 million and insiders are saying don't rule out a jump to $80 million. This in a $475 million budget.

PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK

The public employee unions haven't gotten must traction in their fight against Berry's plan for a 3 percent salary cut and to increase the amount employees pay for health benefits. But they do have a point when talking about furloughs being preferable to salary cuts. The retirement check of a city worker is based on the highest salary he pulls down. If salaries are cut and not restored, it will impact those retirement checks. But if the money is saved by furloughs, retirement pay levels won't go down.

A good compromise would have the city council cook up a combination plate. Salary cuts of perhaps 1 percent or so and several furlough days as well. That may not be as appetizing as a real combination Mexican plate, but it would be easier to swallow for city employees about to retire.

And let's get real on the end game here. There are five Republicans on the council and four Democrats. City employee unions are barking at the moon if they think they are going to escape any financial hit during this crisis. Best to protect your benefits package, fellas, rather than burn your political capital on fighting any reduction in take home pay in the next year--either through salary cuts or furloughs.

IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME

What's different about this downturn is the cause. Wall Street and the banks essentially brought down the country. They still go unpunished. Has anyone gone to jail as millions pay the price with their jobs? It is similar to the 1930's when another unregulated Wall Street escapade cascaded into a Depresssion. But they did something about it back then.

The cycle of boom and bust is as American as apple pie, but in the past it has been accompanied by a clamp down on hyper-capitalism. We rope that bull and bring it back to the pen and start again. This time the bull still seems to be romping while befuddled middle class workers are left to fend for themselves.

Yes, the ownership of the two major political parties by the corporate money givers has a lot to do with why we have been so slow in correcting the excesses at the top of the pyramid. ABQ AFSCME leader Andrew Padilla calls his union's efforts to preserve their jobs without pay cuts "a war.". But instead of blaming the citizens, as Padilla did recently, for not spending enough money and thus not generating enough taxes to pay for public services, he should pick up a copy of the Wall Street Journal and learn about the real culprits in this economic mess.

TACO TALK

Staying on the econ beat this Monday, a member of the NM Air National Guard's fighter wing best known as "The Tacos" writes in expressing concern that the new mission given to the wing may not be enough. At stake is 1,100 jobs and a $15 million annual payroll. The Tacos lost their fighting mission last year, but Rep. Martin Heinrich spearheaded the effort to get a new non-flying mission for the Tacos. But will that mission stick? To our Taco:

April 15th marked a very significant event for Kirtland AFB...Reality showed up at the New Mexico Air National Guard. The first wave of F-16's left Kirtland AFB forever. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the rest of the fleet will be gone by the end of this fiscal year, September 30th. There is no new mission. No new aircraft are on the way. The Taco's are going to now 'merge' with other units on Kirtland. Let the competition for jobs begin.

Someone is going to lose out in this deal. The other units on Kirtland are already operational and fully staffed. Now here are a bunch of Guardsman walking in and hoping for a place to continue their decades of service. It just isn't going to work. Once the Air Force has the F-16's where it wants them, there is no longer ANY leverage to keep the surplus positions. The hollow promises will fall through.

Bottom line: good paying, reliable jobs are literally flying out of the state and come fall there will be the truth of how this affects our community. I welcome the comments from our elected leaders on this new reality.

The new mission for the Tacos has them becoming part of a special operating wing that specializes in search and rescue. Some observers, however, are saying that in the long-term a border security mission may be the best bet to preserve the jobs.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments, anonymously if you wish.

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