Friday, May 21, 2010Inflection Point For GOP Guv Contest? Analysts Say Martinez-Weh Battle May Be Tipping; TV Wars Leave Tea Leaves To Read Senior analysts are wondering aloud whether they've witnessed an inflection point in the 2010 Republican chase for Governor that may tip the race to wealthy businessman Allen Weh.The flurry of analysis came as Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez put up an ad responding to allegations in a Weh commercial that she failed to pay her taxes and purchased iPods with DA funds. She explained in the ad that iPods were used to listen to witness and defendant statements and that Attorney’s have used iPods to successfully prosecute criminals, including child molesters. The ad also says Martinez has always paid her taxes in full. But Martinez was seen by the analysts as fighting on Weh's turf as the clock ticked rapidly on the June 1 primary. They wanted stronger stuff in response to Weh's ad which they see as eroding Martinez's standing. "She pulled the trigger on a squirt gun," declared veteran pollster and Dem analyst Harry Pavlides of Martinez's response ad. Pavlides said time is limited because of the Memorial Day holiday May 31 and with the primary coming the following day. He said voters will stop paying attention around next Thursday. He felt that Martinez should have come with her own fresh charges now. Alligators chimed in that those charges could center on Weh's CSI Aviation company and how it received hefty federal government contracts. They urged an attack on Weh's contention that he is a successful private businessman when they see a government contractor getting deals from the feds. That's the kind of up front and personal hit that Weh chose when he accused Martinez of failing to pay taxes and spending DA money on meals at Hooters. There was speculation (and some grumbling) that Martinez may feel hesitant about going after Weh's business because It could drag former Congresswoman Heather Wilson and retired Senator Domenici into the fray. After all, you normally don't get millions in federal contracts without some help from your hometown congressional reps. Whether it turns out to be squirt gun or a Luger, Martinez has apparently made her choice. She will ride into the weekend her ad that accuses Weh of being for amnesty for illegals and explaining the iPod purchases. MONEY MATTERS Another challenge for Martinez is the mammoth amounts of cash Weh is now shoveling into the race. My media mavens report that Weh's TV buy for the week ending next Tuesday is now a gargantuan $252,000. Martinez' buy for a similar time frame is now $102,000. Weh started out the week buying about $177,000. That, my friends, is a license to kill. INTERVIEW INTERRUPTUS  Martinez tried to throw Weh off his game Thursday when she interrupted an interview he was conducting with always-in-the-thick-of-it Stuart Dyson of KOB-TV. Susana walked up to Allen and said, "I am happy to show my taxes any day to prove that I pay them..." She said she was willing to release her tax returns for the past ten years if Weh was willing to do the same.But Weh, known for his sometimes hot temper, did not take the bait. He kept his cool and responded that "There will be an appropriate time to present our taxes, but I don't think that's germane at the moment." If Susana was waiting for Weh to lose it and give her a defining moment, she was left at the altar. But you can't blame her for trying. She too must be sensing that powerful financial forces, crafty DC media experts and Weh's iron will to control himself (so far) are coming together and signaling that the gates may be starting to close on her. DI TIME What a year to be unopposed. Dem Diane Denish, who will become her party's Guv nominee June 1, surely dodged a bullet when she failed to draw a primary opponent in this toxic election environment. Not only that. The R's are starting to eat themselves alive. A senior Denish operative could not let the turn of events this week go without cutting comment: This primary has become a debate about I-PODs and Hooters. So much for job creation and taking on corruption. Needless to say, there’s only one candidate on TV right now giving New Mexicans a good reason to go to the polls on June 1 –the one without opposition on the ballot. FINAL STRETCH More Primary '10 final stretch coverage now as the dead-trees take to the trail. Sean Olson of the ABQ Journal covered the GOP Guv forum held Thursday. The New Mexican's Steve Terrell has campaign analysis and the AP's Barrey Massey counts the voters and projected turnout. And on-line, Heath Haussamen comes with a report on Weh's federal contract. LIGHT GUV BATTLE No sooner had one of our Alligators written in complaining that none of the four candidates for the Dem light guv nomination was attacking front-runner Brian Colon, then we get word that Lawrence Rael has come with a TV ad giving a jab to both Colon and Campos. We'll look for more on that. (Ok, I'm looking at the latest Rael spot and am seeing nothing "negative." ) Still a clear field for Colon. Here is a passage from Rael's website that contrasts him with his rivals: The other candidates for Lt. Governor have good intentions, but their professional experience has been as an attorney, social worker, restaurant owner, and consultant. I’ve been involved with major public initiatives for over twenty-five years. In a competitive energy environment we can’t wait while less-experienced leaders learn on the job... MY BOTTOM LINES
 We'll sit down with KOB-TV's Nicole Brady and Stuart Dyson for a half-hour and talk all about the 2010 Dem and GOP primary contests. Join us for "Eye on New Mexico" Sunday at 4:30 p.m.And we're getting back in the saddle for our traditional election coverage for public radio KANW 89.1 FM. We'll have our pre-game show at 5 p.m. May 31 and our wall-to-wall Election Night Coverage Tuesday, June 1 beginning at 6:30 p.m. We'll tell you more about that as we get closer. It's the busy season around here again, and we appreciate you being with us. From Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan reporting. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, May 20, 2010Martinez: Caught Red-Handed Or Smeared? Weh Rains Down The Pain, Plus: First Look At AG Race, And: ABQ And Kirtland; Billions Of Impact The race for the GOP Guv nod flirted with the personal Wednesday as multi-millionaire businessman Allen Weh rained down the pain on rival Susana Martinez. Weh, responding to Martinez's televised charge that he favored amnesty for illegal immigrants, threw the kitchen sink at the Dona Ana County District Attorney. Observers saw it as an attempt to have the party faithful lose trust in her personal character as the race remained tight as a vise.Weh left the clear impression in his rip-roaring 30 second spot that Martinez did not pay her taxes. The ad says: Martinez says she'd fight corruption, but auditors caught her red-handed. Martinez failed to pay taxes. But in documents the Weh camp released to support the charge, it turns out that as district attorney Martinez hired 24 individuals to destroy closed cases and paid them as personal service contractors. The state auditor, in a 2008 report, said they should be placed on the DA's payroll and pay the required employment tax. So Martinez failed to pay her taxes? Hmmm. The Martinez camp will likely respond with their own TV ad, but one of her operatives came with this early reaction: There is a big difference between honestly contrasting on an issue and personally smearing someone with a lie." And there's more. Weh pulled dining expense records for Martinez and her staff while on official business and roasted her for "extravagant dinners. luxury hotels, dinner at Hooters, even I-pods." Here is a transcript of the ad: Why is Susana Martinez attacking? Because that's what career politicians do. Martinez says she'd fight corruption, but auditors caught her red-handed. Martinez failed to pay tax taxes. Look how Martinez spends our tax dollars. Extravagant dinners. Luxury hotels. dinner at Hooters, even I-pods. Wasting our money. Breaking the rules. Careerpolitician Susana Martinez--a false campaign, unpaid taxes, bad judgment. The Weh campaign also released reimbursement records showing that Martinez and her staff ate at, among other places, the upscale Ruth's Chris Steak House in Scottsdale, AZ. Everything in the records appeared to be for meals consumed while on official business. (The state did not reimburse for the booze on the tabs, just the food.) This ad comes close to going over the top because of the big stretch on Martinez and taxes, but it is potentially damaging as Martinez remains relatively unknown. Calling into question her integrity could raise doubts about her. Martinez left herself open for some of this. She had flatly said a couple of years ago she would not plea bargain felony DWI cases, but she did. And she told TV news here that her office has always passed examinations from the state auditor with flying colors. But that wasn't the case, even if it was an innocent oversight like not putting contractors on the payroll. But an objective look at Weh's ad leads one to conclude that the ominous delivery and excellent production values (they turn Susana's hand red when they charge she was caught "red-handed") are the real highlights of this hit piece--not the content. We posted the support documents for the Weh ad here and here. DEM LIGHT GUV ACTION  On the five way race for the Dem nod for Light Guv which our May 12 poll showed Brian Colon with a healthy lead over Lawrence Rael and Joe Campos, an Alligator writes:I'm amazed at the latest TV ads by Campos and Rael. They should have been up two weeks ago with the positive stuff, and at this point should have been laying into Colon with a 20-10 ad, That's 20 seconds of negative and 10 seconds of positive. But,alas, they don t know what they are doing. The other two candidates in that race are state Senators Jerry Ortiz y Pino and Linda Lopez. TAKING IT SERIOUSLY In this, the year of the anti-incumbent, NM House Speaker Dem Lujan is taking seriously--very seriously--the challenge he is receiving from Carl Trujillo. Lujan spent more than $27,000 last month on his campaign for a 19th term. The 74 year old leader from Nambe outspent the 43 year old Trujillo who has loaned himself $10,000. The latest campaign finance reports show Trujillo had less than $1,500 in cash. Luján had more than $118,000, raised over the years when he had no election challenges. Insiders will watch this race closely. A huge upset would be a Trujillo win, but the margin of a Lujan victory will also be closely monitored to see if there is any weakness as he faces a grouch electorate. And to the North of Lujan five term moderate state House Republican Jeannette Wallace is seeing two Dems vy to take her on in November. Wallace hasn't had an opponent for ten years. That tells you that the voters are tired of both parties--not just the Dems. IN BIG BERNALILLO Sisi Miranda  Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales failed to score the endorsement of the ABQ Journal in that crowded race for the Dem nomination for sheriff. The nod went to Sisi Miranda, a 25 year retired veteran of the ABQ police department.Gonzales is well-financed and has party support, so he is still high on the favorites list, but the Miranda endorsement gives her a boost. She would be the first female sheriff in county history. On the Republican side, retired APD commander William Kurth gets the Journal's blessing. Kurth has been piling up the endorsements over rival Dan Houston. Recently, GOP state Rep. Larry Larranaga endorsed Kurth. UNM FALLOUT Could the continuing turmoil at the University of New Mexico be impacting fund-raising? The UNM foundation reports it will not meet its goal of raising $90 million for the fiscal year that ened June 30. It says it will probably take in between $70 and $80 million. No doubt the recession ravaged state economy is playing a role in that decline, but the stormy state of campus affairs could also be starting to take a financial toll. The next Governor will have a full plate, but they will need to reserve some space on it for troubled UNM. AG ACTION Our first look at the 2010 race for attorney general finds Clovis area District Attorney Matt Chandler boasting that he has nearly matched the money raised by Democrat Gary King, but King trumps Chandler, son of a former Clovis police chief, with the news that he's received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association. Both King and Chandler are unopposed for their party's nominations. R's like the young and aggressive Chandler, saying he can give King a run for his money--if he can continue to raise money. King is the son of the legendary Bruce King and has been known to write a check or two to keep any competition at bay. Chandler reports $99,000 in cash on hand in the early going. King reports $103,000.
THE BIG PICTURE  $5.6 billion dollars a year. That's what the ABQ Chamber of Commerce says is the economic impact of Kirtland Air Force Base on the metro area economy. In addition, they say the base population is 21,000. Less than half that $5.6 billion comes from the Department of Energy and Sandia National Labs operations, and over half from military organizations on base. KAFB is the largest employer in the state.Senator Bingaman is back on the Senate Armed Services Committee for the rest of this year. ABQ Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich scored an appointment to the House Armed Services Committee. These panels are crucial to writing the budget that funds KAFB. The modern ABQ economy was built with KAFB as its foundation, and it remains so today. Through the decades the state's congressional delegations have worked together--regardless of ideology--to ensure the viability of Kirtland. Today's economic environment makes that even more urgent. One of retired Senator Pete Domenici's great attributes was his willingness to throw his weight around to secure funding for Kirtland and the national labs. Some in Washington called it arrogance, but whatever it was, it got the job done. If Bingaman and Heinrich catch a couple of black eyes for offending their committee colleagues when it comes to protecting the state's interests, so be it. The Chamber's newspaper ads about Kirtland got us to wondering. Does the conservative business group help Republican Jon Barela in his effort to oust Heinrich and in the process possibly hurt Kirtland by losing the state that slot on House Armed Services? How important is Barela's support for conservative government versus Heinrich's position to help preserve KAFB? We suppose that's also something for the Chamber members to wonder about. THE BOTTOM LINES Rep. Lujan  From the news release file:Rep. Ben Ray Luján has been named to the Committee on Natural Resources. The Committee has jurisdiction over federal land agencies including the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the Bureau of Land Management as well as the Bureau of Indian Affairs. “The Committee oversees many programs and agencies that are important to New Mexico...,” said Rep. Luján. “In New Mexico, we place great value on our lands and resources, and with the Committee, I will work to make sure these resources are available for future generations.” This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments, anonymously if you wish. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, May 19, 2010Our Exclusive Poll: Powell Has Big Lead In Land Office Race, Plus: Weh Hits Martinez Back On TV, And: Tuesday Election Impact On NM
Powell, Montoya & Jones
   Ray Powell has opened up a better than 2 to 1 lead over his closest rival and appears well on his way to securing the Democratic nomination for state land commissioner in the June 1 primary. That's the news from a scientific poll conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on Wednesday May 12 and which measured the support of Powell and fellow candidates Harry Montoya and Sandy Jones.Powell scored 37.5% in our statewide poll; Jones 17.3% and Montoya 15.9%. Undecided voters came in at 29.3%. Powell is well known in Democratic Party circles, having previously served 1o years as land commissioner, longer than anyone in state history. He scored a landslide win over Jones and Montoya at the Dems March pre-primary convention to win first place on the ballot. He was the only one of the three contenders to garner more than 20 percent of delegate support, forcing Jones and Montoya to gather petition signatures to win an official spot on the ballot. Powell is running ahead of his two opponents among both men and women. He also leads in all age groups. Only among Hispanics does he cede the lead. Santa Fe County Commissioner Montoya scores 42% of their support while Powell gets 26 and Jones, a Public Regulation Commissioner from the south, gets 11. That number haunts Powell some because, in 2006, he lost a bid for the Dem land commission nod when Jim Baca beat him in the northern Spanish counties. Baca lost the general election to Republican Pat Lyons who is now seeking a seat on the state Public Regulation Commission after two terms as land commissioner. However, Montoya does not appear to have the strength of Baca who is also a former land commissioner. Republican Bruce Donisthorpe who assisted with the survey had this analysis: Ray Powell has a strong and solid lead in this race and is well-positioned to capture over a majority of the votes cast in the June 1 primary. He has the lead in all of the large population centers throughout the State and has solid leads throughout the rural counties and is running especially strong in the Albuquerque-Santa Fe corridor. He is the only candidate in this race who has support throughout New Mexico in all corners of the State and all demographic groups on this survey. The land commission office has been in Republican hands for eight years. There are two GOP candidates vying for their party's nomination--Bob Cornelius of Tatum and Matt Rush of the Portales area. Our poll differs significantly from a survey conducted by the Jones campaign. His phone poll conducted of 400 registered voters April 30 to May 2 had Powell leading with 23.5%; Jones getting 22.4% and Montoya 9.1%. 45% were undecided. Our survey was conducted by automatic phone calls to likely Democratic primary voters by Dialing Services, LLC in Roswell. The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 5.2%. Complete cross-tabs for the poll are posted here. A tip of the hat to our blog advertisers for making the survey possible. THE ORIGINAL BIG BILL  A crowd of some 300 or so greeted former President Clinton at the Embassy Suites in ABQ Tuesday afternoon as he stumped for certain Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish.The ex-Prez is pictured at the late afternoon event with Denish and her husband Herb. Tickets were going for up to $500. Clinton has always been a popular figure in the state. He won it in both his presidential elections. He was last in New Mexico last year to deliver the eulogy at the funeral of former Governor Bruce King. Denish's ties to Clinton include chairing Hillary Clinton's 2008 prez campaign in the state. The former President had a falling out with Governor Richardson when the Guv failed to throw his support to Hillary. Clinton has the appeal to the independents and centrists that Denish needs to win in November. We wouldn't be surprised to see him and/or Hillary back here for Di before the campaign is over. WEH HITS ON RADIO  Allen Weh's first response to Susana Martinez's negative TV hit came not on the tube but in a hard-hitting 60 second radio spot, charging that the Dona Ana County District Attorney "failed to pay taxes" and used state funds for "steak dinners, luxury hotels, dinner at Hooter's, even making taxpayers pay for three I-Pods." The ad wraps up with this hit: "Wasting money, Breaking the rules. Career politician Susana Martinez. A nasty negative campaign, unpaid taxes, questionable spending."Weh's campaign has not yet supplied their evidence that Martinez did not pay taxes, but the spot said "auditors caught her red-handed." The ad does not say how much money was allegedly involved or what kind of taxes are involved. Sometimes these charges can be pretty spurious. Sometimes not. We heard the radio spot and transcribed it for you. We don't know where it is airing. As for Martinez's TV spot that he is soft on illegal immigration, Weh's radio retorts: For years Allen Weh has fought liberals to crack down on illegal immigration He'll end sanctuary policies, stop giving illegals driver's licenses....no one will be tougher than Allen Weh. Weh laid the ground work for his counteroffensive Tuesday night, sending this missive to supporters: It's too bad Mrs. Martinez has decided to take her campaign down the old, tired road of political deception...Let the record show that Mrs. Martinez has decided to take a negative turn in this race, and we will defend ourselves in an appropriate fashion. Weh could put up his own negative TV against Martinez as early today. She fired first Monday with the amnesty ad. Weh calls her charges "laughable." (We are now told by the TV insiders that Weh will go up this afternoon with a spot similar to the radio ad.) Meanwhile, Martinez came with a mailer that attacks Weh for not being tough enough on the death penalty. She charges he is only for the administering the penalty if the crime has been corroborated by DNA evidence. Weh's camp says it must have taken time to produce that piece and shows that Martinez was the first to go negative, not him. While Weh used radio to launch his first counteroffensive against Martinez, TV hits are right around the corner. This is going to be a roller-coaster finish. The newspaper joined the campaign trail Wednesday and came with this report on the latest charges and countercharges in the highly charged GOP Guv contest.
TV UPDATE The critical component of the final stretch is TV and in that regard Weh will continue to outspend Martinez--by more than he has. Our Media Mavens report the latest numbers as of late Tuesday. They say for May 18 to 24 Martinez has now bought $94,000 on the major ABQ over the air stations. But Weh has now pumped in nearly $180,000 for May 19 thru 25th. He originally purchased around $110,000 for that week, so you can see the trend. ELECTION NIGHT  What do the election results from around the nation Tuesday mean for New Mexico? One of our insiders has some news:With Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter out and Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd retiring--both Dems--come next year New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman will presumably move up to #10 in seniority among all 100 US senators and up to #6 among the Democratic senators. That's a big deal, Yes, it is a big deal. The retirement of veteran GOP Senator Pete Domenici cost the state millions in earmarked funds. But Bingaman is in the majority, has close ties to the White House and now this surge in seniority. This could strengthen the state's position in protecting federal funding for the national labs and military bases. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments, anonymously if you wish. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, May 18, 2010Combat Now Fully Engaged in Tight Fight For 2010 GOP Guv Nomination; Martinez Fires First; TV Ad Hits Weh On Immigration, Plus: Berry's Brier Patch
Martinez vs. Weh
  The 2010 campaign for the not invaluable Republican gubernatorial nomination switched to full combat mode Monday with Susana Martinez firing the first shot. Return fire is expected at any moment from retired Marine Corps Reserve Colonel Allen Weh. The switch in the character of the contest came as polls show a virtual dead heat between the duo in what is technically a five way race, but in reality is an old-style, two way shoot-out. Martinez, certain that Weh was about to pull the trigger on her, decided on a preemptive strike and came with a favorite of hard-core conservatives--illegal immigration. Her TV spot accuses Weh of pushing "amnesty for illegal immigrants. Weh wrote that he supported the amnesty plan for 13 million immigrants...(He) argued illegal immigrants are crucial to our economy. Politician Allen Weh: wrong on amnesty." See the ad here. It was an all-out attempt by Martinez to move even further to the right and peel off some of Weh's support as she traveled there. To do so she used Weh's support of former President Bush's immigration reform plan that was widely praised by Dems and R's, but failed to win congressional approval in 2007 when it was attacked as being an amnesty plan. Weh, a decorated veteran of the battlefield but like Martinez now engaged for the first time in the high-stakes political power game, had his campaign upbraid Martinez for going nuclear on another R. They said Martinez had pledged a no-nukes policy in an early campaign interview, but... True to form as a career politician, Susana Martinez thinks she can say one thing and do another--just like they do in Santa Fe,” said Weh campaign manager Whitney Cheshire. Allen Weh is a forward-thinking Reagan Republican...On border security...he will end sanctuary policies and make sure our police enforce all our laws. He’ll start by rescinding the executive order that prohibits State Police officers from reporting illegal immigrants to federal agencies, and he’ll stop the issuance of driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.” Martinez threw a bone to the many Republicans who fault Weh's chairmanship of the GOP for tearing the party apart. Her TV ad dubs him: "Allen Weh: divisive party chairman." Oh, how they were dancing in the streets over that one at Janice Arnold-Jones headquarters and down in T or C where Weh nemesis Earl Greer resides and who launched an unsuccessful coup against Weh when he was chairman. GENESIS OF AN ATTACK  Before debuting the hit on Weh on late afternoon ABQ TV, Martinez sent out an email that gave her a fig leaf for going with the first tube attack. She said Weh's reference to her on Sunday as a "government lawyer" was the first violation of Reagan's 11th Commandment, stating that R's should not go after one another. Actually, it was this blog that called it a violation and the Martinez campaign ran with it. (Does that mean Allen Weh is going to come for us with his baseball bat? Hey, we're just the messenger, Allen.)But the "who hit first" argument will fade fast. We are now in the phase you can call "the winner-takes-it-all-and-don't-bother-to-phone-home-if-you-lose." While party leaders will fret about the outbreak of hostilities, in one way it is good for the Republicans. Weh and Martinez, essentially tied in the Sunday ABQ Journal poll (31 for Weh; 30 for Martinez), have been giving us a Goody-two-shoes version of their vision for this troubled state. They've been vetted about as much as an applicant for janitorial duty in a Juarez bar. As one of our correspondents put it: "Nobody likes attack ads and everyone is sick of negative campaigning. But if Republicans cast their vote without knowing the vulnerabilities of their chosen candidate, they may start regretting that vote the very next day." Now back to the action..... MORE ON THE ATTACK AD  Our Senior Alligators say the Martinez ad attempting to make look Weh soft on immigration is aimed at all undecided voters and soft Weh supporters statewide, but could have more impact in the conservative Little Texas counties of SE NM where ethnic voting may be blocking Martinez from moving past Weh. Of course, the south is also closer to the border and more sensitive to border security issues in general than the ABQ Metro.But the illegal immigration card was played last year in the ABQ mayor's race when Republican RJ Berry maintained that ABQ was a "sanctuary city." Berry picked up conservative support that helped him win, but it is now costing him as he tries to govern. More on that below. Like her endorsement from Sarah Palin, Martinez could be creating a major problem for herself in a general election campaign by going so far to the right and imperiling her appeal to Hispanics who she will need to get elected. But with 80 percent of the likely voters in this GOP primary identifying themselves as conservative, she has no choice but to try to "out right" Weh. This is a sliver of the electorate not representative of the state as whole, but they have the nominating power and that is that. MORE ON WEH RESPONSE. A late night news release heralded Weh's dissatisfaction with Martinez's attack, but that is certainly only the warm-up act. By attacking the combat veteran who has a personal fortune to spend, Martinez, as crusty Marines might say, has invited a "shit storm" of a response from the old warrior. As one insider Democrat puts it in this email: Martinez reminds me of the scrawny kid on the playground who listens to his friends, gets pumped up, gains some confidence and throws a rock at the head of the big bully when he’s not looking. When the bully slowly turns around, his size advantage quickly apparent, and the scrawny kid says “crap what have I done?” – because the beat down is coming. INSIDE THE TV And now that the dogs of war have been unleashed, how much will we be seeing them on TV? Our Alligators and Media Mavens continue to provide us with the exclusive details. They say Martinez has booked about $90,000 for May 19-25 and they say Weh has bought $110,000 for the same time period. That's enough for him to run both positive and negative ads. Weh has loaned himself a million of his own cash. With everything on the line, you wonder if he will feel comfortable by out spending Martinez by only $20,000 in the crucial week starting Wednesday. DEMS WANT TO PLAY  It seems the Democrats want to play in the R's sandbox. While Dona Ana County District Attorney Martinez was charging at Weh, three Democratic county sheriffs were charging her with plea bargaining felony DWI cases when she pledged not to do so:Martinez has let more than 1,000 felony DWI offenders (fourth offense or more) plea bargain instead of pushing for maximum penalties. In 2004, then candidate Martinez said that “We will not plea bargain a DWI case” and went on to say “We don’t pretend it is a first or second offense just to move the court docket along.” [Las Cruces Sun-News, 9/5/04] However, public records show that Martinez has allowed more than 1,000 felony DWI offenders take plea bargain agreements over the past ten years... Rio Arriba Sheriff Joe Mascarenas: “Maybe some politicians break campaign pledges and think nothing of it, but a broken promise on something as serious as felony DWI offenders is simply not forgivable. But a Martinez operative says get ready for a big Democratic backfire. They pulled the wrong data. Martinez has the lowest plea bargain rate in the state. This will backfire in a big way..." We shall see, but the Dem attack was read by analysts as an out-of-the-closet declaration by the Dems that they want Allen Weh to win the GOP Guv nod. He is seen as having less cross-over appeal with Dems and Hispanics than Martinez and thus less of a threat to certain Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish. Maybe the D's will also put a glove on Weh in the final stretch. But it's pretty clear to insiders that Weh is their great hope. DOWN TO THE WIRE We're working the fast-breaking 2010 GOP Guv primary beat with KOB-TV and KRQE-TV. We joined the intrepid Stuart Dyson of KOB to diagnose that Dem action against Martinez. BERRY'S BRIER PATCH  You almost feel sorry for ABQ Mayor RJ Berry. But his insistence on going where no other mayor has gone before has now led to an effort to brand him as no friend of the Hispanic community.By opening up the wedge issue of illegal immigration, Berry has waded into the thicket of racial politics from which few New Mexican politicians emerge unscathed--or emerge at all. Last night he scored a party line victory for his policy in the city council, but it may prove Pyrrhic. Berry's proposals when it comes to how law enforcement handles illegal immigration seem innocuous and represent little change to past policy. But he has handed his opponents too tempting a target to refrain from demagoguing, all to satisfy the hard right wing of the GOP who helped him win office. We are surprised at what we believe the damage that this is doing to the Berry brand. Berry is married to a Hispanic woman and his instincts are all about bringing people together. But we and others warned repeatedly that he should not go where he has gone. Did he forget he is the first Anglo mayor to be elected since 1985, and then mainly because the Hispanic vote was split between two other candidates? But Berry's political future is a minor concern. It is the general comity over ethnic diversity that historically prevails in ABQ that he has put at risk. Seen from that perspective, one can only hope that Mayor Berry can quiet this tempest so the city can move on to issues that really impact our quality of life. NEW RAEL TV Dem Light Guv candidate Lawrence Rael has come with a new TV spot that you're either going to like a lot or not at all. It uses herky-jerky (is that a word or did we just make one up) movement as it showcases HIS public service record. Rael's finance reports indicate he set aside $60,000 for TV for the final stretch. THE BOTTOM LINES  The Santa Fe Reporter takes a look at all five of the GOP Guv hopefuls...In our first draft Monday we had corruption ranked as the number three issues among state Republicans in the ABQ Journal poll. It was fourth... This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments, anonymously if you wish. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, May 17, 2010The Susana Surge: A Look At The "New" GOP Race For Governor From Top To Bottom; Battle For Nomination Grabs Spotlight; Weh Starts Negative Hits
Susana & Sarah
 Has Allen Weh hit the wall? Will the Susana Surge subside? Those were the key questions on the minds of the now fully engaged Alligators, analysts, wall-leaners and insiders as they appraised the fast moving weekend action in the 2010 GOP Guv primary. They turned nearly giddy over the closeness of this thing. Everyone has been hankering for a race and now that we've got one, the cell phones and Blackberrys are finally humming again.And it took only hours for Allen Weh, an independently wealthy businessman and former NM GOP chairman, to take notice. Ahead by only one point in Sunday's ABQ Journal poll (31% to Martinez's 30) his campaign wasted no time in launching the first negative volley of this five way race, violating Republican Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment, but signaling that the nomination will have to be fought--not just bought: Clearly this is a two person race,” said Whitney Cheshire, campaign manager for Allen Weh. “Voters are deciding between a government lawyer, and a job-creator who has built a successful business.” Maybe that's okay for starters, but insiders think Martinez may have jumped five points over the weekend based on the Journal poll and the Palin endorsement. Weh may have to come with stronger stuff if he is to tarnish the halo that is starting to be placed on the diminutive yet feisty DA. But.... Weh is now in precarious territory. He has to fight his way forward while firing off shots at Martinez, but any one of those shots that miss could trigger land mines that could blow up in his face. Campaign insiders say Martinez's favorable rating is higher than Weh's. That's another factor he has to weigh as he prepares to go nuclear. Meanwhile, the Weh hit did not go unnoticed in the Martinez camp with an operative pushing back with this: A party boss and government contractor wants to debate records. Really? Weh did his best to put a smiley face on that Journal poll showing him barely ahead of Martinez. He came with an email missive exclaiming: “We’re in the lead!” But the Alligators were on the loose and pointing out that Weh has loaned his campaign one million bucks. "What's that? A one point lead for each million you spend?" Jived one of the Gators. Nothing personal, Allen. It's just business. THE MARTINEZ BENCH  Senior Alligators here say neither Weh or Martinez are likely to get too personal. They will leave it to their surrogates. And in that regard the Dona Ana County DA may have an advantage. She has a stable of state legislators who have endorsed her candidacy. That is now a full bench of credible spokesmen for the local newspapers to quote as they answer any of Allen's attacks on Susana and as they fire off some of their own. Martinez may not have Weh's personal cash, but she has troops on the ground and she could also use them on the TV air.And if you're wondering why so may legislators have endorsed Martinez, well, let's think ahead. In 2011, the Legislature will redraw state legislative districts, a bill that will have to be signed by the new governor. Legislators agree with the analysts that the R's best bet against Dem Diane Denish in the fall is Martinez--not Weh--and they can be said to be endorsing Martinez out of self-preservation as much as anything else. THE TV ANGLE Weh has spent good money on TV. Has he hit the wall or will another $250,000 or more make a difference? If he wants to win, he has little choice but to ante up. He has to believe it will work. Our media mavens report Martinez has booked nearly $100,000 of TV time for this week, assuming it all runs. That means Weh may have to go to $150,000. Martinez does not need to out spend Weh or even match him on the tube. Now that she has Big Mo, she just needs to stay in the neighborhood and continue her final push into the metro area that she began with the Palin visit. (Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia and Torrance counties will make up about 45% of the primary vote.) In our special Sunday blog we mentioned that it appeared state government corruption is the top issue among NM Republicans. But in the Journal poll released today, it ranks fourth , behind budget deficits, the weak economy and unemployment. Still, pollster Sanderoff said he has never seen the issue rank that high. That explains, in part, the appeal of Susana Martinez's TV spots which have focused almost exclusively on the corruption issue. ANOTHER SURGE REASON Of the four Weh challengers, Martinez has emerged as the new, fresh face at a time when voters of all stripes are sick of incumbents. Veteran marketers will tell you that the "new" brand usually sells the best. Weh is going to have to start convincing voters that Martinez, a DA for 12 years, is old wine but in a brand new bottle. MORE FROM THE POLL  Our readers hungered for more cross tabs from the ABQ Journal poll. Veteran Pollster Brian Sanderoff obliged:Weh is ahead by 4 points among seniors. Undecideds are about the same in Bernalillo County as they are statewide. The most interesting demographic variance was on educational attainment. Susana has a comfortable lead among those with a college degree or graduate degree whereas Alan is doing best among those with a high school degree or less and those with some college. Typically those with some college (i.e. Associates Degree or professional blue collar license) tend to be quite conservative. Sanderoff earlier told the paper that Martinez and Weh both received 31 percent support from men and that women were about evenly split among the two. Martinez carried Hispanics with 41 percent to Weh's 28. About 15 percent of the state GOP is Hispanic. PAYNE'S TAKE Veteran Republican analyst Greg Payne said he may have jumped the gun when he said on the blog that Martinez needed to attack Weh the first weekend of May. He was surprised by the Susanna surge but it explains whey she held off on going after Weh and now the tables are turned, with Allen having to start the air war. Payne, like everyone else, is waiting for the next 72 hours to unfold to see if the race remains a nail-biter or one of the candidates breaks free. Of course, Payne had it right when he said someone was going to have to attack someone and end one of the longest truces we've ever seen in a contested GOP primary. THE PALIN VISIT  Overall, the Sunday visit of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is a boost for Martinez in the GOP primary, but Palin's handlers let her answer one question from TV reporters that revealed the baggage she carried into moderate New Mexico. She gave a full-throated endorsement of the hyper-controversial Arizona immigration law. Martinez has not given her full backing to the law, perhaps mindful of polls showing 70 percent of Hispanics oppose the measure.The Palin statement may not be a big problem in the conservative primary, but if Martinez takes the nomination, the Dems will be sure to add it to their list when, in October, they paint Martinez as "a Palin Republican." TV news said Palin drew around 1,000 to the ABQ Marriott. The story led the early evening news broadcasts and was also on the 10 p.m news, along with that poll showing Martinez nipping at Weh's heels. Palin is not a general election play. The latest polling shows her favorability among Republicans to be only 45%, with a decidedly negative view when all voters are counted. But in a five way race in a conservative dominated party, the Palin play delivers. Not that Martinez was always on board with a Palin endorsement. When Palin was here last year to promote her book in Roswell, the Democratic Party points out Martinez said she would not seek Palin's endorsement. Well, times change. Don't they? NATIONAL PLAN The WaPo explains the Martinez endorsement by Palin is part of the 2008 GOP VP nominee's plan for the 2012 presidential race: Sarah Palin appears to be building a pack of "mama grizzlies" in the 2010 elections that could send a powerful political message if she decides to run for president in 2012. Martinez a "mama grizzly?" Only when Allen Weh is trying to steal her honey jar. MUM IS THE WORD Republicans are still showing their traditional paranoia toward what they consider "the liberal media." Two news staffers--one from KOAT-TV and another from KRQE-TV-- were highly critical of Martinez's refusal to take questions at the Sarah Palin endorsement announcement. No wonder. They were invited to this "press event" but then stiff-armed by the Martinez camp. Allen Weh also did not make himself available to KRQE Sunday for an interview about the Journal poll. These are newbie candidates and their handlers may be over protective, but the press and the bloggers are going to come down on the eventual GOP nominee like a ton of bricks if they keep it up. But that's the least of their problems. We're sure Diane Denish will find a way to make the R nominee talk, even if the press is stymied. DOUG'S DECISION  What does Doug Turner do after a disappointing 6% showing in the Journal poll? He still has a couple of hundred thousand in his bank account that he could use to exert influence. And right now the Martinez camp may want to keep an eye on the deck Doug will deal from.On Friday Turner sent out a notice to his supporters that he had been the victim of dirty tricks and his campaign believes it is coming from the Martinez camp. Said Turner: ...One of my opponents has enlisted the services of an anonymous auto-dial telephone service to make outrageous and false suggestions about me. This is a tactic right out of the dirty politics playbook and we must not stand for it. Anonymous push-polls are cowardly and reflect an attitude of the candidate behind them that they will carry with them in to office... The Martinez camp will disavow any knowledge of that gambit, but if Turner decides to get aggressive with his money on TV, even with the odds stacked against him, it could hurt Susana's momentum in big Bernalillo County and help Allen Weh because it appears Susana and Doug are indeed trolling for similar voters. One other note. Doug's embrace of his old boss, ex-Governor Gary Johnson, has not helped his cause. DOMENCI'S DECLINE The candidacy of Pete Domenici Jr. turns out to have been a misstep. A good lawyer does not necessarily make for a good candidate. Domenici, 50, son of retired US Senator Pete Domenici, polled only 10% in Sunday's survey, signaling an end to the Domenici era which began when his dad was elected to the ABQ city commission in 1966. Domenici the younger has carved out a good reputation as an attorney, but his skills as a politician were scarce. His father started out as an attorney in 1958 and parlayed that into a storied political career, but there won't be a "Re-Pete." RAEL ENDORSED  You knew one thing for sure--the ABQ Journal was not about to endorse Dem Light Guv contender Brian Colon. Not after Colon's involvement with the fund-raising efforts of Big Bill which the paper has gone after in recent years. So the endorsement went to Lawrence Rael, who has endured his share of criticism from the paper, but mainly on a local level while serving as ABQ's chief administrative officer.In the GOP Light Guv primary, the Journal gave its editorial nod to ABQ state Senator Kent Cravens. John Sanchez is widely seen as the front-runner in that race which also features Clayton's Brian Moore. By the way, our Alligators say Sanchez was the only one of the GOP Light Guv contenders not to appear at the Sarah Palin event where Martinez was endorsed. TV WATCH GOP Light Guv candidate Brian Moore joins rival John Sanchez on the air with this TV spot. It's well-done, emphasizing the conservative values of the former Clayton area state rep. But Moore has been heavily outspent by Sanchez who is dominating this race with heavy TV. ABQ State Senator Kent Cravens is doing radio. Analysts think Moore would balance the GOP ticket nicely with any of the Guv contenders, as none of them hail from the east side. But Moore may have underestimated the money he needed to challenge Sanchez. Back on the Dem Light Guv side, syndicated columnist Jay Miller says Campos is the best candidate for the Dems this year: The candidate with the best ticket-balancing argument is Rep. Joe Campos of Santa Rosa. Denish likes to talk about her Hobbs roots, but a running mate who has spent his life in rural New Mexico would be a help to her...Campos has another advantage: He is not close to Gov. Bill Richardson. Some good points there, Jay. FABIAN'S FAVE Fabian Chavez  Political legend Fabian Chavez is urging Dems to make Joe Campos their Light Guv nominee. The 85 year old former state Senator and Dem Guv nominee in the 60's, says:I know from my time in the legislature, there are followers and there are leaders in the legislature. Jose is a leader, a bold leader, who will fight for the people's causes even when it is unpopular among the rank and file politicians. Jose Campos is an intelligent, honest candidate without ties to ‘pay to play’ politicians. Campos placed third in the New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan poll conducted last Wednesday, garnering 12.9 percent. However, he was nearly tied with front runner Brian Colón among Hispanic voters. Chavez is a native of Santa Fe. VANZI VS. MONTOYA If Dennis Montoya is suspended from practicing law as the state Supreme Court's Disciplinary Board asked Friday, NM Court of Appeals Judge Linda Vanzi would be the only legally qualified candidate on the June 1 primary ballot for the seat she now holds. You must be an attorney to be an appeals court judge. Montoya is charged with multiple counts of professional misconduct. He has been locked in a tense primary contest with Vanzi. Our recent scientific poll of the race showed Vanzi with a lead over Montoya. Vanzi was chosen by 38.7%. Montoya received 26.5%. About 35% of the voters were Undecided. Montoya would stay on the ballot even if the Supreme Court suspended hm from practicing law, but one would think the resulting publicity would give Vanzi the victory. VICTORIA'S SECRET: FINAL TAKE  ABQ Metro Court Judge Victoria Grant is gone. The Supreme Court allowed her to retire after a slew of judicial misconduct charges had been filed against her. The charges had been kept secret even as Grant was allowed to collect her pay while on suspension.The secrecy ended Friday when the speculation of our Legal Beagles here was confirmed. Grant was being investigated for giving jail time beyond the maximum time allowed and denying defendants the right to represent themselves in court, among other things. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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