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Friday, July 16, 2010

Friday Summer Blogging: Buzz From The Guv Campaign Trail; Di & Susana's Stump Styles Appraised; TV Ad Talk, And: New Mexico Ranked On Biz Climate 

Insiders attending the myriad of mini-fundraisers Dem hopeful Diane Denish is holding give the lieutenant governor points for her knowledge, but the insiders still complain about her being mundane. They want more spirit from her.

That cuts both ways. Di's in-person style has always been low-key. Not much to get the crowds cheering. On the other hand, the laid-back way translates well for her on the hot medium of television.

Martinez is not going to take the crowds by storm either, but she has a solid media presence. If you want an early taste of it, here's a long-form interview sent in by Susan Loubet of KUNM-FM's"Women's Focus."

Denish could benefit from stepping it up a notch, keeping her speeches short and inject more humor into them to better the pace. Martinez is eloquent when she is familiar with the subject, but she will have to guard against stepping in potholes when asked impromptu about subjects she is not well-versed in. Both candidates are going to need to be prepped for the statewide prime time TV debates, a format neither has experienced.

For now the political doctors recommend for Di more podium practice and for Susana it's more time with the issue books.

THE DARREN AD

Reader Robert Johnson writes of that pro-death penalty ad from GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez that features a testimonial from ABQ Public Safety director Darren White. He asks:

Is Darren White impersonating a Sheriff's officer in that Susana Martinez ad? By wearing that flak jacket with "sheriff" stamped on it, it makes me believe he is a sheriff or a deputy. But he works for the city of Albuquerque. Which is he, a city employee or a sheriff?

White told the newspaper he was careful not to use his title or current position in the ad and says he wore the vest that identifies him as "sheriff" intentionally.

But White is no longer the elected Bernalillo County Sheriff, and there remains the question of the appropriateness of the city's supposedly nonpartisan public safety director appearing in political ads. It's a line that has never been crossed before and it is up to Mayor Berry or the city council to decide if it merits attention, or the city ethics board if it were to receive a complaint.

Normally, such an appearance would undergo the scrutiny of the city's chief administrative office. But current CAO David Campbell has been stripped of his authority to supervise the public safety director.

SUSANA'S RECESSION

Is Martinez suffering an idea recession? Critics are attacking her economic plan as skimpy, saying it lacks the depth and comprehensiveness they see from Dem hopeful Diane Denish. "The dog ate the homework" chides syndicated columnist Sherry Robinson of Martinez's economic plans. The Martinez campaign is apparently feeling the heat. They trotted out an early endorsement from the Associated Builders & Contractors of NM:

I am very proud to have the endorsement...Job creators are supporting my candidacy because the economic plan I have put forward will make New Mexico competitive and reverse the failed policies supported by Richardson’s “good, loyal soldier.

An expected, but still worthy endorsement. But what happened when Susana was putting together her small business leaders' coalition? Among those on the steering committee are oilman and NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates. The Yates empire is worth hundreds of millions--hardly in the category of "small." But R's say Diane is a millionaire too and that doesn't disqualify her from weighing in on small business concerns. And so it goes...

NOT 50TH
Your blogger
We're not at the bottom of a list--for a change.

The Land of Enchantment ranked No. 38 this year, up from No. 43 in 2009, in CNBC's list of America’s Top States for Business 2010.The rankings are based on 10 categories: cost of business, work force, quality of life, economy, transportation and infrastructure, technology and innovation, education, business friendliness, access to capital, and cost of living...

That's the good news. The bad new is that Texas is ranked #1 in the nation by CNBC for doing biz and Colorado is #3. That's some pretty stiff competition for our neck of the woods...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Barela Cash Count Climbs; Can He Make A Race Of It With Heinrich? Plus: Candelaria As U.S. Marshal, And: Di & Susana; An Age Factor? 

Heinrich vs. Barela
If the dreadful backdrop for Dem US House candidates continues into the fall, Republican Jon Barela will have enough cash to let voters know he is there, but he still lags Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich by a better than two to one margin, making his path to Congress a still steep climb.

Barela is reporting $536,000 in the bank as we prepare for the media phase of the race. Heinrich, facing his first re-election test, reports $1.3 million in cash. The latest federal reports are being released this week.

Barela's performance was a bit better than expected and gives R's hope that more cash will come, perhaps putting this race in serious play. Until now, it has been a quiet campaign with no paid advertising from either camp. A PPP poll in February had Heinrich leading Barela 45 to 36 in the ABQ area district. But a poll conducted by Heinrich in late April pushed him above the magic 50% mark, 55% to Barela's 38%.

While national polling continues to worsen for House Dems, Heinrich has been diligent in cultivating local issues, trying to avoid getting wet from any national tidal wave for the R's. But if it gets much worse, some water could start seeping under his door.

Barela is throwing some red meat on the table as he tries to make a splash:

I will work daily to end the runaway spending, tax hikes, and debt that continues to hamper our economy and prevent job creation. Mr. Heinrich, on the other hand, has been a down-the-line supporter of a far-left agenda that is causing these problems.

Some of our R analysts would like to see Barela up with TV ads in early August. They point out that ousting an incumbent--even a freshman Dem like Heinrich--is a herculean task. No incumbent has been defeated in the 42 year history of the district. Early TV may not be possible, but attorney Barela, a former congressional aide to the late GOP Congressman Joe Skeen, is credited with doing a good job of husbanding his resources. If something big happens to Heinrich, he will be there to capitalize.

Barela's cash account keeps him around and in the game. Right now, this one is still Heinrich's to lose.

CANDELARIA TO MARSHAL

How's this for a nice consolation prize? You are rejected by the Bernalillo county Commission to fill a vacancy as sheriff, but the President of the USA nominates you to become US Marshal. That's what happened to retired ABQ police department commander Conrad Candelaria Wednesday.

The appointment was quite late in coming. Obama took over in January of 2009, but is only now nominating a replacement for Republican Gordon Eden to the marshal's post, a plum federal job that goes to the party in power. NM senior Senator Jeff Bingaman made the call for Candelaria:

Candelaria has spent his entire career in law enforcement, and has developed all the right credentials for this important position. I look forward to his Senate confirmation.

The 44 year old Estancia native and ABQ Rio Grande High and UNM grad, ran into a buzz saw when he put his name in the hopper to fill out the unexpired term of Sheriff Darren White who resigned to become public safety director for ABQ.

A controversy erupted over his service in the NM National Guard and was thought to have derailed his chances. Democrat Manny Gonzales was given the nod.

Candelaria said at the time that he had taken his name out of the running for the US Marshal post, but told us last night that soon after he said that he received a call from Senator Bingaman's office and the game was back on for him and other marshal hopefuls, including Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano. Said Conrad:

I am very honored the President gave me this nomination and to have the endorsement of Senators Bingaman and Udall. I want to build on a great tradition. Among the primary tasks is keeping a safe environment for our judiciary and making sure they can keep the criminal justice system operating smoothly...

That sounds pretty formal, but Candelaria told us that over the phone while watering his lawn.

It was a bumpy road for Candelaria, but in the end fortune shined on him. Perseverance is not a quality to be underestimated for those seeking the higher rungs on the ladder of La Politica.

BIRTHDAY GIRL

GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez turned 51 Wednesday. (She's a Cancer). Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish turned 61 in March (She's a Pisces). By our recollection, Denish would be the oldest person elected governor for their first term. With age spans extended in recent years that probably could be expected. But does Martinez's relative youth vis-à-vis Denish make a difference? Maybe some in a year when voters are being lured to try the new brand.

There's a caveat here, however. Denish was first elected to statewide office in 2002, at age 53. She is a known quantity--a semi-incumbent. It's getting elected for the first time in your 60's that would be trickier.

Martinez's husband, Dona Ana County Undersheriff Chuck Franco, congratulated his wife on her birthday in a fund-raising missive sent out by the campaign. He said the couple has been married since 1991, or since Martinez was 30. That again raises a question about Martinez's personal biography that has yet to be addressed by the New Mexico press.

Is this Susana's first marriage? Denish was divorced in early adulthood. She has three grown children and was a single mother for six years. Martinez has a stepson, Carlo, 22. An article we spotted also says she maintains care for her 51-year-old sister with special needs, Leticia, who lives with the couple.

Curiosity is keen over the life paths that both women took to reach the top. We're anticipating the reporting of it in the weeks ahead.

UP CLOSE


Here's an article from last year from Las Cruces Magazine profiling Franco and Martinez. It fills in some of the blanks, but not all of them. In one of the photos, Susana is pictured with a cat. What will she do to get the vote of the dog lovers?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

R Guv Strategy: Tap The Anger; Is It Enough? Plus: Cut The Pay Not The Paid Holidays; Did Berry Overreach? And: Teague Vs. Pearce; The Latest 

Why is GOP Guv contender Susana Martinez continuing to hug the right when candidates usually pivot toward the center for the general election? One of our informed Alligators has these thoughts:

I've seen more evidence lately that the GOP thinks this election is going to be about the angry white man and that the turnout model will be similar to 1994 when the R's took over the US House. In other words, Dems and women will stay home and the white guys will seek to simply out-turnout everyone.

The louder they get, the more women and independents will want to stay home and away from the fray. You see this in the change of tone in the US Senate where, for example, Arizona Senator Kyl said those collecting unemployment are ripping off the government...

Martinez's latest TV ad emphasizes her pro-death penalty credentials while scoring Dem rival Diane Denish for not being a death penalty supporter. She does reference economic issues in the second half of the 30 second spot.

Early turnout models for the New Mexico November election being discussed among political pros point to something similar to that of four years ago. Whether more voters will consider themselves conservative seems to be the question. But Martinez also has appeal to Hispanics. Will she be able to get a robust share of them, even if she hews to a conservative line?

There is a lot of anger out there--a throw the bums out mentality. As we've blogged before, that could lower the bar for Martinez. Anger may trump ideology, driving support to Martinez even among those of a moderate bent. Early polling shows the Guv race essentially tied. In a heavy Democratic state like ours, that in itself is a coup for any GOP candidate.

HISTORY'S LESSONS
Toney Anaya
In 1986, when Republican Garrey Carruthers won, he did so as Dem Governor Toney Anaya sported an approval rating that flirted with single digits (we kid you not). And the Carruthers election was assured not necessarily by the policies he campaigned on, but as a rebuke of Anaya.

In 1994, Republican Gary Johnson was elected as he ran against unpopular incumbent Democrat Bruce King, an election where there was much anger in the air--not only against King but against the unpopular legislative leadership.

Now comes Susana Martinez and there are early signs that anger in the air is giving sail to her candidacy. But it is not as palpable as it was in those earlier elections. And that's why we appear to have a horse race.

We note that the election of those Republican governors did not signal a shift in the centrist tradition of New Mexican politics. Anger can be a powerful and even triumphant voice at the ballot box, but in the long run ideas still matter most.

PAY ANGST

There is near unanimity that public employee pay had to be cut to come up with a balanced ABQ budget, but Republican City Councilor Don Harris voiced the concern of many when he asked why the Berry administration had to cut salaries for police and fire by 2.4 percent when the same money could have been saved by eliminating pay for certain holidays.

I think (Mayor Berry) is being a little more assertive with labor than he has to be, Harris said.

The state opted for furloughs and unpaid days--not salary cuts--to balance the budget, so what gives with the city?

Well, Berry took a tougher tone with labor than the previous administration. He was egged on by the Chamber of Commerce and the editorial pages of the ABQ Journal. But both missed an essential point as they jawboned for the salary cuts instead of unpaid holidays. We are balancing the budget for the 12 months that began July 1, not the future budget years that they argued needed attention.

Money is money. If you can take care of the next year by opting for unpaid holidays instead of permanent salary cuts, why not do it?

Conspiracy theorists might argue that cutting salaries of these public employees was part of a larger plan. The salary cuts could hasten departures from the police and fire departments. After all, their retirement benefits are based on their earrings for their three highest paid years on the job. Those looking to retire--the most experienced cops and firemen--will be the first to look toward the exits. That would mean replacing them with much lower paid personnel? Was that a goal of the administration?

Unpaid holidays, not salary cuts, were preferred by the council and they made their preference known to the mayor, but he ignored it and it cost him. The bolting of Republican Harris signaled the uneasiness.

If the economy stays in the tank, salary cuts for police and fire are inevitable in coming budget years. But by choosing to ignore the council consensus and addressing not only the current year's deficit--but future deficits that may or may not exist--Berry put the cart before the horse. As a result, he appears to have further polarized his administration and city politics.

EMCORE SHOOTINGS


We wondered aloud here Tuesday whether the shootings at Emcore were in any way related to the sour economy and quoted from news reports that the shooter, Robert Reza, who killed two, wounded four and then shot himself, had been one of those laid off by the hi-tech company. But an Emcore PR rep says Reza was not laid off:

The shooter wasn’t laid off, he resigned in July 2009. He was on a medical leave of absence, and tried to return to work but wasn’t medically able and he resigned. (It was) a tragic domestic violence situation.

TEAGUE VS. PEARCE

The Wall Street Journal taps into the Teague vs. Pearce battle for the southern congressional seat. Following the advice of national Dems, Harry is trying to make the race against Republican Steve about local concerns while Pearce pounds the table over big picture issues.

But don't forget the negative. Expect this pair to soon be beating up on one another on a TV screen near you.

Meanwhile, Pearce appears to be getting ahead of himself. He blames the lousy economy, in part, on the cap and trade bill, but that bill has not become law. It was passed by the House with Teague's support but continues to languish in the Congress. Said Pearce:

The current policies coming out of Washington are killing jobs. The Cap and Trade bill is a job-killer and the Stimulus bills are failures.
..

And what is Steve's solution to the jobs dilemma? No surprise there. Cut taxes, he says.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Shootings Shake City & Test Chief, Plus: More On Martinez TV Issues, And: Some Tax Talk 

You would think with our reputation that Albuquerque would have experienced every kind of crime you could think of. Well, up until yesterday we really hadn't. A mass shooting at a local business--not motivated by robbery--that claimed three lives (including that of the killer) and wounded four others was apparently a first for the state's largest city.

The shooter, 37 year old Robert Reza, left Emcore fiber optics and solar photovoltaics on a medical leave near over a year ago. Police say he was after the mother of his two children, who he was in a custody dispute with and who was wounded but survived. Two other Emcore employees weren't so lucky. Reza finished his deadly day by turning the gun on himself.

Emcore is on wobbly legs. Its stock price closed at 78 cents a share Monday, far down from its glory days when it traded for more than $10. Competition from China as well as from domestic rivals is a major concern.

It was ABQ Police Chief Ray Schultz who handled crisis management chores in the immediate aftermath of the mass shooting that struck the city Monday morning.

The chief's experience showed. He was calm and deliberative on the big news which shook the community and sent the rumor mill spinning into overdrive. He quashed the rumors early and effectively. He did have some trouble with the number of persons slain, but that's not unusual under the extraordinary circumstances. And Public Safety Director Darren White made an appearance on KKOB-AM radio that showed his ability to get on top of a story.

ABQ Mayor RJ Berry also hit the right notes during a terrible day in city history. He showed up at the scene but did not get in the way.

Showing up and acknowledging the tragedy is important. When five persons were slain in the shocking 1996 Hollywood video slayings we remember the silence from city hall.

But the city policy on major crime news of sometimes having the police chief speak and at other times having White speak continues. It can be confusing and if public confidence equals consistency it can be problematic.

AFTER THE CRASH

Not to get too morbid but this is what the aftermath of the collapse of the Rio Rancho housing bubble looks like:

According to Rio Rancho Police, they have been called to 12 suicide attempts so far this year, dramatically outpacing the number of suicide calls in 2009--16 total. As far as actual suicides, there have been five reported this year, compared to 18 the year before. In 2008, police were called to 25 suicide attempts and 10 actual suicides.

Sabrina Strong, who is on the board of the New Mexico Suicide Prevention Coalition, said suicide prevention hotlines have seen an increase in calls. “It’s because of economic problems,” Strong said. “It puts stress on everyone.

A statistical quirk or yet another sign of the Great Recession?

CAMPAIGN TV

Reader reaction to that appearance by ABQ Public Safety Director Darren White in the latest TV ad for GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez ad. One reader sent in the section of the city's Merit System Ordinance that deals with the political conduct of city employees and wondered whether White was in violation:

No employee shall participate in the following types of political activity:


(A) Using his or her position or employment with the city to influence support of other officials or employees of the city for or against any candidate or issue or political action committee or other similar organization in any election or pre-election activity; provided, however, that nothing herein shall deny the right of an official or employee of the city to express his or her views on any issue.


White is not identified as the city's public safety director in the Martinez ad, but he is identified as such on TV news in his many official appearances as a spokesman.

If you do not overtly identify the city position you hold in a TV spot, does that exempt you from the provision that you should not use your city job "to influence support...for or against any candidate or issue..."?


The city ordinance may need to be revisited in light of White's unprecedented political activity so it specifically addresses how city employees can cut political commercials for TV, radio and Internet. Or an ethics complaint could be filed and it could be sorted out from there.

Some readers asked whether Chief Administrative Officer David Campbell gave his approval to White appearing in the Martinez spot. We point out again, that in an unprecedented move, for the first time the CAO does not have direct supervision over the public safety director who has stated that he reports to the mayor.


We ran into the mayor at Barelas Coffeehouse prior to interviewing with KOB-TV on the controversy over White's appearance in the Martinez ad. The mayor said he was unaware that White was doing the commercial.

READER ANALYSIS


Our blog on the travails of the Susana Martinez Guv campaign Monday brought a variety of reaction, including this one from reader Alan Schwartz:

I don't get the direction of the Martinez campaign. It seems to me that she is being presented on a daily basis with opportunities to sell a "change" message and put Diane Denish on the spot.
Sometimes, it's something as mundane as a KRQE-TV piece from Larry Barker on profligate state spending. Martinez should be jumping on that and forcing Denish into a "me too" response.

Martinez keeps hammering her law and order meme without any indication of how local law enforcement is managed by the Governor's office. You and others have pointed this out before, but does she need to be reminded again that she is not running for attorney general and that the AG is an independently elected office?


Thanks, Alan. One of the reasons Susana is hammering the law and order theme, as you put it, is because Diane has been attacking her record as Dona Ana County district attorney. But it is up to Susana to keep moving forward and defining the race on her terms not the Dems.


RICH AND POOR

Why do we say it is New Mexico's wealthiest taxpayers that need to help shoulder the burden of any new taxes to resolve the state's ongoing budget crisis? Here's why :

The gap between the wealthiest Americans and middle- and working-class Americans has more than tripled in the past three decades, according to a June 25 report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

New data show that the gaps in after-tax income between the richest 1 percent of Americans and the middle and poorest parts of the population in 2007 was the highest it's been in 80 years, while the share of income going to the middle one-fifth of Americans shrank to its lowest level ever.

The CBPP report attributes the widening of this gap partly to Bush Administration tax cuts, which primarily benefited the wealthy. Of the $1.7 trillion in tax cuts taxpayers received through 2008, high-income households received by far the largest...

MORE RIO RANCHO

We haven't blogged much of that pie-in-the-sky solar manufacturing plant unveiled in Rio Rancho earlier this year. That's because nothing is happening--as we and others predicted when looking at the financials presented by the Green 2V. The June 1 groundbreaking deadline has come and gone and with it probably any hope for the touted 1,500 jobs the company claimed it would bring here.

Seems Rio Rancho may want to to look into beefing up mental health services for its citizens instead of focusing on economic schemes that feed false hopes and divert public resources.

BACK TO TAXES

Back on the tax rates, Paul Gessing of the conservative Rio Grande Foundation, notes that the gross receipts tax in NM cities is hittng 7 percent and well beyond in many locales. That's the real business killer, not our too-low personal income tax rates on the wealthy.

On another note, will someone please email in and tell us where to find all the jobs that were created when we slashed the rate on the rich from 8.2 percent to nearly 4 percent? We're just asking.

We know this is not a popular rant. Many in the middle-class still support tax cuts after two decades of being promised by that they would win life's lottery and find themselves soon drenched in riches. But a funny thing happened on the way to the bank, the money ran out...

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Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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Monday, July 12, 2010

Campaign '10: It's TV Bloopers; Latest Martinez Ad Makes Miss List, Plus: Susana's Four Flubs And How She Can Right The Ship, And: Hamburger Heaven 

What is this? TV's Bloopers and Practical Jokes? That's the only prime-time some of these campaign commercials for the 2010 Guv's race seem fit for. And the bloopers keep coming.

GOP Guv hopeful Susan Martinez delivers a double blooper in her latest tube offering. It is a pro-death penalty piece and not a bad one. But the 30 second spot makes the blooper list because she features testimonials from political lightning rod Darren White as well as Bob Martinez, the former executive director of the State Adult Parole Board who was fired from the job in 2004. See the ad here.

But there's more. Martinez was axed for failing to notify victims of a parole hearing for a sex-offender priest. And what TV ad has Dem Diane Denish been hammering for weeks against District Attorney Martinez? Why, it's this one that accuses Susana of being soft on sex offenders.

That's some unexpected luck for Di.

WHY WHITE?
Darren White
Of course, it isn't only luck in play. Why did Susana have to use White in her ad attacking Denish for not supporting the death penalty "not even for cop killers?" He is no longer Bernalillo County Sheriff although in the spot he wears a protective vest sporting the title "sheriff." White is the public safety director for the city of ABQ--a top position of power in a nonpartisan government.

KOB-TV asked Darren why he appeared in an attack ad against Denish when he is charged with ensuring that city law enforcement applies the law fairly and judiciously.

People know me as someone who has been involved in law enforcement--an outspoken public safety advocate for years...This is a very important issue. This is a very important race.

But White, unlike past public safety directors, has direct command over the police and fire departments. The police chief refers to him as "my boss." Unlike his predecessors, White does not answer to the city's chief administrative officer, only the mayor. He has the power to order law enforcement action. He has also become the chief media spokesman (especially on TV) for the departments.

There's also the criticism that the public safety director should devote his time to arresting the city's ever spiraling crime rate, not playing in the political playpen.

Not that Darren is going to order that cops go soft or hard based on your voter registration, but appearances and perceptions count and such overt political campaigning in the media by ABQ police chiefs and/or public safety directors has no precedent.

Republican Mayor Berry has taken whatever leash he had on Darren, who is a favorite of hard-right Republicans, and let him run. But the mayor better watch what he runs into. Damages are ultimately payable by the office of His Honor.

MORE ON THIS

Martinez using White and generating news not about her ad, but about him, is another early mistake. In addition, as you would expect her to slide to the center, the death penalty ad keeps her on an issue that works best with R's. Remember, in 2008, White was shellacked by Dem Martin Heinrich for the ABQ congressional seat. His limited popularity does not extend to the independents and undecided Dems that Susana needs.

We're aware that Darren was sheriff during the 2006 slaying of sheriff's deputy James McGrane, a crime Micheal Astorga was found guilty of. And we also note that Astorga's mother put Denish on the spot when she said that Di as Governor would not allow her son to be put to death. (Denish says she would. The crime occurred before the state abolished the death penalty.)

But again, why do a death penalty ad at all at this point? We are five weeks into a general election campaign in which Republican Martinez seems unusually well-positioned with Hispanic Catholics. The church has been a key player in opposing the death penalty which was repealed by the 2009 legislature at the urging of Big Bill. Couldn't Susana showcase another issue at this point--one that appeals to moderates and complements, not threatens, the possible historic inroads she could make with Hispanic Dems?

Well, we don't have the polls these folks use but maybe they say the undecided voter is more interested in death sentences and illegal immigration than their jobs, life savings and their kids' college education. But we don't think so.

Or maybe the GOP wunderkinds see the conservative counter-revolution coming to New Mexico and you just get the base believers to the polls and not trouble yourself with nuance.

As for the use of the fired Martinez, where's the vetting? Isn't that TV production 101? That's egg you see spread all over the faces of Susana's media consultants for not checking it out.

But the egg is sticking to her apron as well. She is ultimately in charge of her campaign, but a brick-by-brick case against her competency could start to be built based on her early mishaps.

THE FOUR FLUBS

First, she undermined her anti-pay-to-play credentials by taking a $450,000 contribution from a Texas developer. The lack of perspective may have been panic-induced as GOP Guv challenger Allen Weh was outspending her heavily. Still, it defined her as another politician, not the outside reform she marketed.

Second, she comes with a TV ad that asserts she has taken on the most violent members of the Mexican drug cartels, but the ad generates newspaper stories exploring whether it is wholly based in fact.

Third, her reaction to a hate email "joke" in which a Mexican immigrant is shot to death in a bar comes up short. She understates the impact and dubs it "unacceptable," instead of roundly condemning the racist content. Also, she does not take a public role in disciplining the assistant district attorney in her office who forwarded the offensive screed.

Fourth is the death penalty TV ad that puts Darren White front and center as well as Martinez, the discredited parole board director.

Yes, it's still somewhat early. But not by much. Early voting is less than 90 days out. Voters have little to judge how Martinez would lead the state other than how she she conducts her campaign. Those paying close attention in these early innings may be in need of some reassurance--or at least a week or two free of rookie errors.

MARTINEZ SPOKESMAN ARRESTED

The Martinez campaign sprouted another problem over the weekend when Susana's new spokesman was booked for DWI

Raj Shah was arrested on an aggravated DWI charge in Albuquerque early Sunday morning. Shah, 25, was pulled over by State Police just after midnight in a silver BMW near the intersection of San Mateo and Osuna and arrested several minutes later.. As of Sunday evening, Shah was in the Metropolitan Detention Center on a $5,000 bond. The Martinez campaign took quick action after it found out about the arrest Sunday afternoon.

"Raj Shah … was immediately terminated," said Ryan Cangiolosi, Martinez's campaign manager...Shah had moved to New Mexico a little more than a week ago to work for Martinez's campaign.

First, the assistant DA in Martinez's office forwarding racist emails and now this. Someone send Susana a fire extinguisher.

THE DI FILE

Denish has also earned a spot in the TV bloopers show by coming with an early ad about Martinez's conviction rate as Dona Ana County district attorney. The spot was shot down and had to be recut. Also, that Denish ad accusing Martinez of "not doing her job" when it comes to two sex offenders has been spanked by FactCheck.org which said:

The Denish campaign did not prove that Martinez "didn’t do her job."

Di's latest ad, released Friday as was Susana's, makes a none too subtle play for the support of Hispanic women. In fact, the ad is dubbed "La Familia" and features testimonials from, well, Hispanic women. (See it here.)

Denish has been given a lukewarm reception among many Hispanic Dems and is gong to work to invigorate this essential core of the Democratic base. This ad is also rare in that she does not take a shot at Martinez. That in itself will be welcome to a large swath of voters already disillusioned by the negative and picayune tone of the campaign from both sides.

STATE OF THE RACE


This appears to be a favorable year for the R's. What we see as early Martinez missteps would be more costly in any other year, but she needs to stop making them before they become part of her political persona. Also, there may be a calculation by the R's that the race is Susana's to lose. Given the favorable environment, they may see no need to pivot to the center. That's a risky calculation and one that in the past has decimated the New Mexican Republican Party. After several cycles of promulgating an uncompromising, ideological driven agenda, the party commands hardly any high-level representation in state politics.

Wouldn't ads about the economic crisis and Democratic competence get Martinez where she needs to go, rather than wedge issues like the death penalty which are so effective in a GOP primary? Or ads that tell us something about who Susana Martinez is? The state still doesn't know.

Denish and the Dems are feeling the heat. They have slammed Martinez's DA record repeatedly in paid TV and yet the race is essentially tied. Maybe it would be worse if they hadn't done the early negative. Hard to say. But the Democratic nominee needs to patiently recapture the Hispanic base that appears to be drifting in the face of Martinez's historic candidacy. Denish's new ad is a step in that direction.

Unless Martinez already has this thing won on a "throw the bums out no matter what" platform, Denish may get a break if the DA stays with national Republican orthodoxy that voters here in 2008 rejected as intellectually exhausted.

HAMBURGER HEAVEN

New Mexico may lag behind in a variety of quality of life stats, but when it comes to coking up a juicy hamburgers and great french fries, we more than hold our own.

We simulated our own version of the hamburger wars recently, visiting the Buckhorn Tavern at San Antonio (south of Socorro) and then stopping in at Five Guys, the renowned national chain that recently opened in ABQ's far NE Heights.

Buckhorn Tavern owner Bobby Olguin (wife Debbie is co-owner) is no stranger to the battle. He won a cooking "throwdown" with the Food Network's famous Bobby Flay, and last July Big Bill recognized the achievement by declaring a Buckhorn Tavern Day" in the state.

But that was then, what about now? Well, Five Guys comes close to tying Olguin's Buckhorn. Their burgers are juicy indeed and very tasty, but they don't offer green chile and they lose the face-off over the french fries. Five Guys serves fries cut from genuine Idaho potatoes that are truly delicious In fact, they post on a board where in Idaho that day's potatoes came from and there are bags full of them stacked at the front of the restaurant.

The Buckhorn also makes homemade fries, but theirs are more tasty because, we think, of the oil used to deep fry them. But knowing Olguin he is not going to be happy that he beats out Five Guys on the fries while the hamburger duel is almost too close to call.

He will probably demand a throwdown ala Bobby Flay. Bring it on, Buckhorn Bobby. Just make sure we're one of the judges.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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