Pelosi, excoriated by the R's as a San Francisco liberal, will be in friendly territory in heavily Democratic Santa Fe. We recall her last visit to the state was in 2008 for the successful campaign of now US Rep. Martin Heinrich.

She took over the Speaker's position in 2007. While there has been beefing from the R's here over national policies she and Obama have pursued, we have not heard major complaints about how she has dealt with federal funding issues of import to our state.

The White House has proposed a major increase in certain defense funds which is going to translate into increased budgets for the national laboratories. And only this week the Air Force announced that Holloman Air Force Base near Alamogordo will become home to two new squadrons of F-16 fighter jets, ensuring that employment levels there remain strong. (The newspaper reported that New Mexico congressmen insist the move is good for the state, but a former Kirtland Air Force Base commander wasn't so sure. He expressed concern over the base's loss of a newer jet for an older one.)

New Mexico's three Dem congressmen, all serving their first term, seemed to have fared well under Pelosi. Rep. Heinrich is on the House Armed Services Committee; Rep. Lujan is not complaining about his treatment and Rep. Teague has been given a pass to vote "no" on some of the more liberal items coming before the House.

Pelosi may indeed be too liberal on major issues of the day for many New Mexicans, but it is the federal funding (and not just defense) that impacts our small state of barely 2 million that matters most. In that regard, Speaker Pelosi has shown herself to be a friend, not a foe.

It's almost August--only five months to go on the Guv's term in office--and there's still speculation that Big Bill could get out of here for a bigger and better job, making Lt. Governor Diane Denish Governor.

Well, the conjecture has faded to a barely heard murmur, but it got above the whisper level again this week when former Senator Bob Kerrey withdrew his name for consideration as the new top lobbyist for the Motion Picture Association of America. Richardson's name had surfaced in February as a possible MPAA pick, but Kerrey's emergence quieted the talk. Now that Kerrey is gone, the name floaters are free to again mention Big Bill. Here's the news:

The Motion Picture Association of America needs to keep looking for a new chief. After flirting with becoming Hollywood’s main lobbyist for months, former U.S. Sen. Bob Kerrey has turned down the MPAA job, the organization announced on Thursday.

"The Motion Picture Association of America, Inc. (MPAA) today announced that the MPAA Board and former Senator Bob Kerrey have agreed to end negotiations regarding the position of Chief Executive Officer of the MPAA. The search process for a new CEO will continue," the group said in a statement.

In an email to The Wrap, the former senator said that he broke things off.

"We couldn't reach agreement and I called to suggest we break off talks. They agreed," Kerrey wrote. "The decision was mutual. I like them a lot and wish them well."

But individuals close to the negotiations on the studios' side said that Kerrey had made mounting demands that resulted in some losing enthusiasm for giving him the job.

Richardson showed his campaign game is not rusty when he came with this announcement:

Governor Richardson and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced that they will co-host an interim meeting of the Border Governors Conference on September 19-20th in Santa Fe...

On the subject of border security and immigration, is there an opportunity here for Denish? A new CNN poll shows a whopping 71% of Hispanics oppose the controversial Arizona immigration law:

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey also indicates that Hispanic and whites don't see eye to eye over the law. Fifty-five percent of people questioned in the poll say they favor the measure, with four in 10 saying they oppose the law. Thirty-four percent of white respondents oppose the measure, but among Hispanics, that number jumps to 71 percent.

Susana Martinez has not endorsed the Arizona measure, which has been partially blocked from taking effect by a federal court, but has been sympathetic. Otherwise, she's been tough as nails on the immigration issue, saying those in the country illegally need to be sent back to where they came from. This cuts her way with many Anglo GOP voters, but Denish and the Dems would seem positioned to make trouble for her up North. That could help blockade movement to Martinez among Hispanic Dems. Here's some KOB-TV news coverage that includes interviews with Denish and Martinez.

By the way, eighty-one percent of people questioned in the CNN poll say they support creating a program that would allow illegal immigrants already living in the U.S. for a number of years to stay here and apply to legally remain in this country permanently if they had a job and paid back taxes, with 19 percent opposed to such a plan. Martinez is with the 19%.

DUELING AGENDAS

Wednesday gave us a good example of how the Guv campaign is dividing. Martinez came with this:

Susana Martinez's Plan to Crack Down on Corruption; A Bold Agenda for Fighting Corruption

And Denish came with this:

Diane Denish to Announce New Plan to Create High Tech & Renewable Energy Jobs to Fuel New Mexico's Economic Recovery

Which issue has the most sway with undecided voters? That's the question, isn't it?

Here is Martinez's anti-corruption plan. She's calling for a public corruption division within the NM State Police. Here's long-form video of the downtown ABQ news conference. We did not spot any TV news coverage of the event.

If you have not seen much of Martinez outside of her campaign ads--and many have not--this nine minutes gives you an idea of how she handles herself. Her style is prosecutorial and somewhat pedagogic--appropriate enough for a district attorney, which she is, but less effective in a political candidate. There is a rigidness in presentation here that we first noted when we watched her on a primary TV debate. Denish, in the game now for several decades, is more practiced and laid back. Our sense is she will press for engagements with Martinez to showcase the difference. (Of course, if one of the candidates were to break out in the polls, they would try to run and hide away.)

Martinez is at home with the corruption topic and there is more meat on the bones of this plan than her economic agenda. The danger for her is that she often seems more in tune for the job of attorney general or US attorney than that of governor. For Denish, the prospective pitfall is that she talks about creating all these new jobs, but she's been in office for eight years.

A JETLESS GUV?

That state jet that has caused Big Bill so many PR problems would be departing its hangar for good if Susana Martinez gets elected. She says she would sell the sleek aircraft. Her comments come in the wake of a TV news investigative report on alleged abuse of the plane. Dem Diane Denish probably won't sell the jet if she takes over but she's probably so snake-bit about using it, the jet would get used about as much as your grandma's Oldsmobile.

Don't fret over how the new governor will go to and fro. The jet may be put on cinder blocks or sold, but there are other state planes available to ferry Di or Susana around. But just in case, the ladies might want to learn how to change a flat SUV tire. The way the state economy is going voters may hijack all the state planes.

This is an emotional issue but in the larger scheme of things $1.6 million over four years for flights from the state's fleet--or $400,000 a year--is not outrageous. Readers remind us that the planes are used often to fly visually impaired New Mexicans in need of medical care back and forth from Alamogordo where the state school for blind is located. There are other legitimate uses for the aircraft--natural disasters, for example--that allow the state to respond to urgent needs.

FOLEY WATCH

It does not appear a political comeback attempt is in the cards this summer for former Roswell GOP state Rep. Dan Foley. One of the Alligators monitoring the action reports:

My info is that Dan won't run for the Rio Rancho legislative seat held by Democrat Jack Thomas. He switched insurance companies and his new employer says he can be politically active but can't run for office. So unless he decides to switch employers again...

Foley was the House Minority Whip before he lost his seat in 2008 to fellow R Dennis Kintigh. Tonia Harris was the GOP candidate challenging Thomas, but she has withdrawn. The Sandoval County GOP Central Committee is expected to name Tim Lewis, brother of ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis, as Thomas's new challenger. The seat is in a swing district.

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Are the Feds on top of this? ABQ-based First State Bancorporation has lost its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange because its stock price has traded below $1 for too long a period. We've asked before why this bank that is saddled with sour real estate loans that are not coming back hasn't been shut down and/or merged by the Feds with a more healthy bank? Guess we're asking again before the loans explode and more damage is done.

THE BEAR MARKET

If some of the many stubborn home sellers in New Mexico would start to crack under the pressure and lower asking prices, we could get to where we are going to--and where we have to go--that much quicker. We could then start rebuilding from the greatest housing bubble in state history.

Housing prices are set to decline for at least another year. But Santa Fe's inexorable decline is slow:

...The median sales price of houses sold in the city dropped from $307,500 to $288,000 in the second quarter of 2010. In Santa Fe County at the same time period, the median price of a home fell to $411,250 from $450,000.

These are still bizarre prices. Before this savage and epic bear market is through (it will be years) we expect the median price in the city of Santa Fe to flirt with the $200,000 level and the county median (held up in part by those Texans' million dollar mansions) to head toward the $300,000 area. When it does, the bubble will finally be burst and a new and saner era in housing can begin. We hope.

#9

It's the ninth officer-involved shooting of the year in ABQ, a subject we blogged on June 16th.. Is Mayor Berry counting? He recently touted the arrest rate for property crime offenders, but this rate of shootings prompts a new round of questions. As we've said before, if the mayor, APD Chief Schulz and Public Safety Director White don't get a handle on this, the trial lawyers will. If and when the public has to start paying out, that's when the mayor will find that this story has more political punch than he thinks and that efforts to dismiss it are ill-advised.

KOB-TV reported that the police involved shooting rate in ABQ is much higher than other comparable sized cities. However, the link to the story was not working at blog deadline time.

BOXING MATCH?

The news that Jake Martinez, father of GOP Guv contender Susana, was a three time Texas amateur lightweight boxing champ, brought an email from Ernesto Baca who wondered if Jake had ever boxed Diane Denish's Uncle Bill. He sent this bio info:

Born in Greeley, Colorado in 1920, Bill lived with his family in Omaha, Nebraska and Council Bluffs, Iowa as a child. The family moved to Hobbs, New Mexico when Bill was a teenager, and he attended the New Mexico Military Institute in nearby Roswell. As a young man, he was an undefeated Golden Gloves Champion of New Mexico.

New Mexicans and Texans have been beating up on one another for generations but even though Martinez is a native of El Paso, it's hard for Denish to take advantage. She's a native of Hobbs, also known as "Little Texas" to political old timers.

THE BOTTOM LINES

There are--count 'em--12 candidates running in the Aug. 3 primary election for president of the Navajo Nation. The two winners will select running mates for the race for the office, which will be decided in the Nov. 2 general election.

Dems like that because NM Navajos are reliable D's. The more interested in voting, the better for them....

We blogged Tuesday that a poll conducted this month by Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich showed him 13 points ahead, but it was actually 12 points...

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VIP tickets are going for $1,000 a couple and $250 a person for the general reception. Susana could use the cash. Dem nominee Diane Denish reported $2.2 million in the bank at the end of June while Susana barely topped $130,000 after an expensive primary battle. Tickets for the event featuring Steele are available by calling 575-636-5844.

Martinez is a candidate with potential political sex appeal for the power starved Republicans. She would be America's first Hispanic female Governor and the GOP needs to start focusing on that to create excitement. So far, however, her TV ads have been solely about hitting Dem nominee Denish. The state (and the nation) awaits a more positive and uplifting profile of this unusual standard bearer. Steele might give that a kick start in his speech to the party faithful Thursday.

Steele's tenure at the national party has been marked by a series of controversies. The latest over his remark that the war in Afghanistan was "a war of Obama's choosing" and that it is failing.

His appearance here will help Martinez raise money and her profile in the state's media and population center.

HEINRICH'S SUMMER SCARE
Barela and Heinrich
They dropped their fishing rods and golf clubs when they heard this one--a new poll shows Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic US Rep. Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% with 4% undecided in the race for the ABQ congressional seat.

Say what?

Didn't Heinrich beat Darren White by 12 points in 2008 to become the first Dem to take the ABQ seat? And didn't Heinrich release a poll of his own May 2 that showed him in good shape, beating Barela 55% to 38%? And didn't a February PPP poll also put Heinrich ahead 45% to 36%?

The SurveyUSA poll (MOE + or 4.2%) conducted among 559 likely voters July 22-25 for KOB-TV shook the lemonade stands from here to D.C, and left the pundits--including yours truly--scrambling for explanations. There are several.

First off, if this poll has captured something, it might be an anti-incumbent trend among voters. It can't be a vote for Jon Barela because he has done no TV ads, no significant newspaper or media stories have been generated about him or the contest and he has never sought a major elective office in the district. But in this chaotic year voters can be of a mind to be against whoever is in office. (KOB'S Stuart Dyson has more on the polls specifics in this report.)

The Heinrich camp was having none of it. The congressman's chief of staff, Steve Haro, speaking with us from the embattled halls of Congress, called the SurveyUSA poll an "outlier" and an "anomaly," citing the results from earlier polls and adding one of his own--a "benchmark poll" conducted for Heinrich July 8 through the 13th by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. That poll shows Heinrich holding on to a solid lead. From Haro on the Hill:

We tested our vulnerabilities and then beat the heck out of each candidate to see where we would end up. We started out with a 12 point lead--53% to 41%. After beating one another up, we still ended with a winning margin--49% to 36%.

I don't know what what is going on with the SurveyUSA poll. It is one of those outliers, an anomaly...If you believe that poll..then you have to accept the fact that this district made a 19 point swing in less than 13 days and I don't see how that is possible...

Haro insisted he saw no message in the surprising findings:

I don't think the poll is telling us anything...Clearly there is an anti-incumbent mood across the country, but we have a positive job approval rating--52 percent. When we ask voters what they like about Martin, they mention that he is very hard working...

The Heinrich campaign released this brief polling memo.

Not surprisingly Barela was milking this one for all it's worth:

Washington is seriously off track. I believe that Washington is out of touch with the average New Mexico family. This far-left drift in Mr. Heinrich's voting record--97 percent of the time with (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi--has led to higher taxes, a higher deficit and certainly higher unemployment.

This was the second tidbit of recent good news for Barela. He earlier reported he has over $500,000 cash in the bank to Heinrich's $1.3 million. That's still a considerable disadvantage but enough to take advantage if something big happens.

Has something big happened in in the district? Probably not. The SurveyUSA automatic phone method seems to work better when both candidates are widely known by the public. But both Barela and Heinrich will use this survey to raise money. Barela more so. And the message to Heinrich in this unsettled year is that nothing less than a picture perfect campaign will do to secure his first re-election. For Barela, the message is to get out of his headquarters and out on the streets---and onto the airwaves.

TV FOR TEAGUE?

As for the President, Obama retains popularity in the ABQ metro. We suspect a stop here and maybe in the north could be in the offing before Campaign '10 heads to the history books. And depending on how Dem Congressman Harry Teague is doing, we could also see the Prez touch down in Las Cruces.

As for GOP nominee Susana Martinez, she dropped Sarah Palin on the state right before the primary. Don't expect her back in the spotlight for Susana--too polarizing. The R bench is lighter on celebrities, but we'll probably see some B-listers here before it's over.

Will such visits help? The candidates can raise money from them and get supporters more enthusiastic. Denish could use Obama around the center of ABQ to spike turnout for her which is always a major concern for Dems in a mid-term election in which older and conservative voters traditionally turn out in larger numbers.

A PERILOUS RACE?

Some out-of-state Guv analysis from the WaP0:

Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez's (R) latest TV ad pretty much sums up the race: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) is struggling to separate herself from the unpopular administration of Gov. Bill Richardson (D) while Martinez is running as an outsider who will shake up the system. Polls show the race is still neck-and-neck, but unless Denish can find a way to change the topic away from Richardson this could be perilous for Democrats in the fall.

The paper ranks the 15 Guv races around the nation most likely to switch parties this fall. They put New Mexico at #15.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING

Corruption will continue to be a major theme of of GOP Guv nominee Martinez, but the Dems were given a break when the corruption trial of former Dem Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron was delayed until Jan. 3. That means no splashy TV and newspaper corruption stories in the middle of October. Such stories could help Martinez press her corruption case against the D's.

THE NEW TONE

A reader writes:

Joe, There is a change in the tone of the political ads now that the mudslinging has subsided between Denish and Martinez.

Denish is bringing out the Latina women to show that she might be white on the outside, but that she will be the first Latina Governor because she is more like a Latina woman. Sort of like Bill Clinton being the First Black President.

On the other side, Martinez is bringing out the old stereotype of the Latina coconut, that she might be brown on the outside but trying to convince the right wing Republican that she is just as white as them on the inside. Sort of like Linda Chavez.

At least they are both sticking to the fact that they are both women and not trying to be too manly!

DEAR DI AND SUSANA...

Reader Dr, Moises Venegas writes:

The most basic question I have is, “Why is there such poverty in NM and why have we had it so long? We will soon be celebrating 100 years of poverty as a state. Why do we not compare with our good neighbor states but find ourselves in the good company of the South? Are there patterns of poverty in NM or as some Americans say,”they just do not want to work.”

Diane y Susana where are you?

THE LEWIS BROTHERS
Tim & Dan Lewis
The move to replace Tonia Harris as the GOP candidate for the Rio Rancho state House seat held by Dem Jack Thomas gets interesting. Tim Lewis, a Cibola High school teacher and brother of ABQ west side GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis, is asking the Sandoval County GOP Central Committee to put his name on the ballot. Tonia Harris has withdrawn from the race, citing family concerns.

Another name floated by the Alligators will have veteran politicos taking a second look. Former Roswell GOP State Rep. Dan Foley now lives in the Thomas district. Will he try to get appointed by the committee and go for a political comeback?

Maybe, but Lewis, 47, a certified high school athletic coach and longer term resident of the Rio Rancho area than Foley would seem to have the upper hand if any contest did develop between the two.

The 195 member central committee is expected to make their decision within a couple of weeks.

A notable sidebar: Dan Lewis, 40, donated a kidney to older brother Tim who is now a member of the National Kidney Foundation. Also, political consultant and attorney Doug Antoon, who helped Dan Lewis win his '09 city council race, is serving as political director of the state GOP this cycle, concentrating on state House races.

The politics of Dan Lewis, and we presume brother Tim, has drawn particular support from evangelical Christians who are aligned with the R's. Dan Lewis is the pastor of a west side church.

Harris was considered a strong candidate because she is the widow of slain Sandoval County Sheriff's Sgt. Joe Harris who was killed in a shoot out last July with the "Cookie Bandit."

District 60 seat can swing either way. Thomas took it over from Democrat Tom Swisstack in 2008 when Swisstack left it to become mayor of Rio Rancho. Expect the R's to throw some money at this one as Thomas goes for his first critical re-election test.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Our Friday missive about the new and lucrative contract signed by University of new Mexico basketball Coach Steve Alford drew reader reaction, including this from ABQ's Andrew Leo Lopez wjo is squarely in the coach's cheering section:

Steve Alford and other UNM coaches are among the few employees of the state of New Mexico whose work people actually pay to see. Further, the academic qualifications and performance of the student athletes attracted to UNM by Steve Alford and other UNM coaches disproportionately raises the quality of the student body. Therefore, Steve Alford and other coaches at UNM are worth the money they take home. Go Lobos!

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