<$BlogRSDUrl$>

Friday, August 20, 2010

First Debate: Martinez Throws Red Meat & Rallies Her Base, Denish Hits On Vouchers & Scores; No Love Lost Between These Two As Sparks Light Up Night 

The first debate
Susana Martinez got the indictment but not the conviction in the first gubernatorial debate of Campaign 2010. She threw enough red meat at Diane Denish to fill the freezers at Albertson's, but in the end Denish stole the lead and may have made more inroads than Martinez with the relatively small pool of undecided voters. Each candidate did comply with the First Commandment of Debates--make no irreparable gaffes.

(You can watch the entire debate here. Newspaper coverage here.)

Martinez, a veteran prosecutor, but new to the bright lights of statewide La Politica, started out with a case of the butterflies, but soon hit her stride. As the hour wore on her attacks on Denish escalated. She could have used a velvet hammer, but it was the meat axe that came out of the cabinet.

Denish sat calmly, taking her punishment like a nun saying penance. You wondered if it was intentional, as if to make Martinez appear ill-tempered.

But the lieutenant governor handed out plenty of her own slaps of the ruler, even if she did not take Martinez's bait. If she lost her composure--as seemed the goal of the Martinez camp--she would have made the night Susana's. Instead, slowly but surely, Denish began taking the most valuable territory of the evening--the battle of the public school budget.

THE HEART OF THE DEBATE

Martinez, in a break with the Republican legislative leadership, has said she would not support any funding cuts for the public schools which take up well over 40% of the entire state budget. But Denish opened the debate questioning Martinez's support of controversial school vouchers and repeatedly returned to that theme, contending that Martinez has flipped her position on the vouchers which she warned would mean taking money from the public schools and giving it to "wealthy private schools."

Martinez fought back, arguing she is for tax credits, not traditional vouchers, which would drain money from the public schools. She said she is for tax credits for individuals and businesses that donate to private scholarship funds that would help low-income families. The plan, she asserted, would not include a traditional system, in which the state directly provides school-choice vouchers to parents.

She said her plan would avoid draining state education dollars from public schools while giving parents school choices.

Denish returned so often to what she called Martinez's support of vouchers that an exasperated Martinez finally exclaimed:

You can say it over and over again and it's not going to make it true.

But the Associated Press wrap up on the debate went right to the voucher issue and Martinez's backtracking. The money graphs:

Martinez defended her proposal, saying she supported tax credits for businesses and individuals that give private money for scholarships for students to attend the school of their choice...

However, during the primary election campaign, Martinez advocated a different proposal.

She told The Associated Press in May that she supported granting tax credits to families who send their children to private or religious schools.


Martinez scolded Denish for describing her private scholarship program as a voucher.


"You can say it over and over again and it's not going to make it true, said Martinez. "It's not going to make it true..."


Denish also invited the audience to tune in to YouTube to see a video of Martinez shot during the primary in which she supports vouchers.

One of the unsuccessful GOP Guv candidates told me Thursday that Martinez explicitly advocated traditional public school vouchers in joint primary campaign appearances. Also, a former aide to Guv candidate Janice Arnold-Jones also told us that he was present when Martinez supported traditional school vouchers.

For the Denish camp the controversy is a proxy for Martinez's trustworthiness. They probably feel pretty good about how their strategy played out last night. Now they have to wait to see if it's penetrating the consciousness of those critical swing voters.

If those voters turn out to be more like Republicans--downright angry at the state of the state--Denish has little hope.

SUSANA AFIRE

Martinez's performance Thursday night had particular appeal to her base. She turned herself into full-throated vessel for the anger and frustration we see much of in this year's political climate.

The Dona Ana County district attorney glared at Denish, calling her a failure to her face and reciting her now familiar anti-Denish orthodoxy of bloated state government and a 49th ranking in public education performance.

She even taunted Denish over her use of the state jet, wondering if money spent on jet rides could not have been used to fund remedial education programs.

Talk about red meat! They were doing the two-step in Little Texas when they heard that one.

Again, Denish took it all in, knowing that any outburst of emotion on her part and the debate would tip to Susana. She held on tight, letting Martinez send her base voters into ecstasy.

However, following Susana's nice score on the jet, Di came with the evening's best segue, saying, "about those vouchers..."

It was one of the few times the invited audience of 400 had reason to chuckle.

Martinez seemed prepped to fight the final battle of a war, but Denish, running behind in the polls, held back. She is going to take this one battle at a time.

Both camps professed themselves satisifed. Martinez's sympathizers praised the aggressive Martinez for "wiping the floor" with Denish, contending that the Dona Ana DA captured today's zeitgeist while Denish looked like a political relic.

But a Denish operative framed it this way:

Martinez played it more like it was a live TV debate--zingers and hyberbole--but this wasn't a live TV debate. It was about winning the narrative for the nightly news and Denish understood that. Denish identified a clear contrast (vouchers) that worked in her benefit and she pounded over and over--reporters couldn't miss it.

PAYNE'S PLAY

Former Republican State Representative and ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne, one of our analysts for this cycle, waxed poetic over "the passion" of Martinez, saying it matches the political climate. But he warned that she seemed at times "too hot" to handle and will have to pull the reins in on herself.

Denish came across as a patient high school counselor. She probably needs to step up the passion, Martinez was like the angry parent berating the incompetent teacher. She needs to ensure that the passion doesn't get too personal.

Indeed. Martinez's anger could make her less likable, a key factor for many voters. Denish's passion gap could make her recede in voter's minds.

Speaking of passion, at the end of the debate Martinez again glowered defiantly at Denish and told her she was a wretched failure and deserved a "pink slip."

And how was your day?

COSMETICALLY SPEAKING

The candidates were seated during their debate. That probably helped Susana who is short in stature and who was given to nervous podium-hugging in her TV debate in the May GOP Guv primary....

ABQ Public Schools Superintendent Winston Brooks, the debate moderator, handled the combatants well, keeping them on the clock. The questions he compiled from the public and educators were solid. Denish and Martinez seemed to like him. That's good because if he screwed up, he'd be losing even more sleep over the APS budget than he already has...

Martinez unveield a new TV spot a couple of hours before the debate. It was on..guess what? Education.

Brooks even cracked a few jokes near the end. If he hadn't, we might not see what Martinez and Denish look like when they smile. Talk about serious. Can you lighten up a bit, ladies? The economy already has made too many folks sour pusses...

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.


(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, August 19, 2010

We Set The Table For Tonight's First Denish-Martinez Face-Off; What's At Stake? Plus: Susana & Global Warming, And: Tea For Who? 

  • Denish-Martinez debate starts at 6 p.m. tonight. Listen to it live here and here. Video of the debate will be streamed at kob.com
Diane Denish and Susana Martinez will have two goals when they meet in debate for the first time this evening. First, don't commit a faux pax that could haunt you for the rest of the campaign. Second, try to take the offensive and begin defining your opponent.

The stakes are high, but not as high as they can get. The debate, sponsored by ABQ Public Schools and to be held at 6 pm at the Eldorado High auditorium, will not be televised. That will limit the reach of this first appearance and keep anticipation levels high for the eventual TV debates between the pair that are expected, if not yet scheduled, for the fall.

The debate will be broadcast live on KANW 89.1 FM radio, which is licensed to APS. It will also be streamed live at the station's Web site as well as the APS site where video excerpts will also be posted.

TV news will trumpet the debate, coming as it does at the opening of the 6 p.m. newscasts. The event will last 75 minutes, ending around 7:15 and making it headline material for the heavily watched 10 p.m. news.

The debate, to be moderated by APS Superintendent Winston Brooks, will focus on education.

Some 400 tickets were handed out to the debate, with a third of them going to the campaigns.

LOOK FOR SPARKS

Sparks are bound to fly between Martinez and Denish, one of whom will be the first woman elected governor of New Mexico.

Martinez's apparent switch on the controversial issue of school vouchers has been fodder for the Denish campaign. And Martinez has repeatedly criticized the "Richardson-Denish administration" for not living up to its promise to improve the state's dismal public educational standing.

Martinez is an experienced prosecutor so she has the ability to take after Denish, but she lacks the podium experience that can sometimes inhibit confidence.

Denish has the benefit of in-depth knowledge of the inner workings of government and can out maneuver Martinez. But she is running from behind and that puts pressure on her that she has rarely encountered in her long political career.

One line of potential attack is already neutralized. Martinez has pledged not to cut the public schools budget any further. That's a position she shares with Democrat Denish.

The Denish camp is hosting two ABQ "listening parties" for the debate. One of them will be at the Plumbers and Pipe Fitters Union Hall, at 510 San Pedro. Details at 505.255.1282. We have heard of no official debate parties for Martinez.

We'll wrap the debate action for you on the Friday blog.

BE CAREFUL


Newcomer Martinez has been steering her candidacy to the middle--no school cuts, no Medicaid cuts, no traditional school vouchers--but she has to be careful not to head to the far-right. That point was driven home to her when the Politico came with this story:

New Mexico GOP nominee Susana Martinez told POLITICO in Albuquerque on Saturday that she had her doubts about the role human activity plays in global warming. “I’m not sure the science completely supports that,” she said.

That view on climate change is shared by politicos like Sarah Palin who campaigned for Martinez, but bumps up against the majority view of the scientific community. Susana came with this damage control after the Denish camp rubbed her nose in the Politico statement:

While there is disagreement in the science community concerning the causes of global warming, there is little disagreement concerning our responsibility to take care of the environment while creating jobs in New Mexico. Politicians engaging in an ideological debate over the causes of global warming does nothing to protect the environment, or create jobs. As governor, I will support balanced and evidenced-based environmental protections.”


Okay, Susana, but be careful.

BACK TO VOUCHERS

Back on education and that school voucher debate that erupted on the Guv campaign trail. Reader Dan Kloke weighs in:

Hi Joe, In the Thursday, August 12 blog, you write regarding the Di/Susana positions about school funding and vouchers:


"Vouchers could cause less money to go to the public schools, but those schools also would have fewer students."

Well yeah, but the other-than-public schools that the vouchers would go to would then have more students. Those student won't just vanish.

If a voucher program does take away from public school funding, it's possible, even likely, that the public schools will cut teachers or at least teacher hours.

This could offset any reduction in class sizes with a reduction of the number of teachers to teach them. In other words, the student to teacher ratio might not change much. But fewer teacher hours intrinsically means less one-on-one time for students.

And I can tell you from personal experience that the non-public schools will not hire any more teachers than they have to, just to keep the student to teacher ratio static. On the contrary, the profit lies in increasing the student to teacher ratio, not in decreasing it.

So shifting funding to a vouchered system is more likely than not to create larger class sizes in one place, and reduce teacher availability ("one-on-one attention for students") in another...

SECOND BANANA UPDATE

One prominent supporter of Denish's won't be at tonight's Guv face-off. While Denish strides to the podium at Eldorado high, Dem Lt. Governor candidate Brian Colón will be doing what candidates seem to do the most of these days--raising money.

He is hosting a fund-raiser at the ABQ Country Club with the help of former US Ambassador to Spain and longtime Dem Party player Ed Romero. Tickets top out at $500 a person. (Click on image of invite to enlarge).

Colón says the money raised will go to the Dems "coordinated campaign" and not to retire the $70,000 debt he toted up in his race for the Light Guv nod.

Some R's were spinning that Brian was less than confident about the Dem ticket's chances of success in November and thus the early fund-raiser to retire his own debt. But the former Dem Party chairman says that is not the case at all and pledges to raise "in the six figures" for the coordinated campaign.

POT OF GOLD--UPDATED


That pot of gold we blogged of Wednesday is apparently not as full as we implied. We speak of the $1 billion in capital outlay money that we speculated some of which could be transferred over to the general fund for a one time fix to plug the gargantuan state budget hole. We took our info from the Legislative Finance Committee newsletter, but the LFC explains further that all but nine percent of that $1 billion--or about $90 million--is locked down:

I’ve attached the LFC Brief presented to LFC last month which gives you a clearer picture and more detailed information than the newsletter regarding the status of outstanding capital funds. While there is $1 billion outstanding, only nine percent of the funds are authorized from the general fund. Also, without checking each general fund project individually, we do not know what obligations or encumbrances are in place for the outstanding projects. Another update will be presented to the committee in October.

So there is only a small potential pot of gold. Okay, back to the drawing board.

THE RAID

We mentioned Wednesday the possibility of the Legislature raiding the state's permanent funds--currently valued at about $14 billion--to help balance the budget in future years. That would be a hyper-controversial move and several readers pointed out this would take a constitutional amendment approved by a majority of the Legislature and state voters. The earliest that could get on the ballot would be 2012. But with the economy projected to drag for several years that doesn't seem so far away.

Could you issue bonds backed by permanent fund money without a constitutional amendment? They're batting that one around the corridors of the Roundhouse.

MARTIN AND THE MOSQUE


He was camping in the Jemez Mountains with his son. That, says his staff, was why ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich was the only member of the state's congressional delegation not to quickly issue a statement on the hotly-debated proposal to locate a Mosque near Ground Zero in NYC. Here's the statement:

I understand how sensitive this issue is for the families who lost loved ones on September 11, 2001. If it were up to me, I'd choose another location for a cultural center and mosque. At the same time, we don't get to pick and choose when the Constitution applies. During this discussion, it's important to remember that America is at war with al-Qaeda not Islam.

"Unfortunately, the Republicans in Congress are taking this opportunity to again stir up fear and anti-Muslim sentiment purely for political gain...

The decision...should and will be decided by the city of New York. I believe my constituents want my focus directed on creating jobs in our community, providing support for our small businesses and strengthening our economy, and that's what I'm going to keep doing.

Conservative talk radio had a field day when Heinrich did not come with an immediate statement. Don't they have cell phone coverage in the Jemez?

MARTIN'S LOUSY WEEK

It's turning out to be an acrimonous week for Congressman Heinrich. First, the uproar on talk radio and now his old nemesis--Jim Scarantino of New Mexico Watchdog, comes with a report on Heinrich's flying habits:

Representative Martin Heinrich upgrades to first class on frequent flier miles bought by taxpayers...He racks up many miles in the air traveling between Albuquerque and Washington, D.C. But instead of using the benefits of frequent travel for free tickets that would save taxpayers the cost of another round trip, he upgrades himself to a first class seat. Is this a good policy for members of Congress, particularly in these tough economic times?

Heinrich's office said:

By earning frequent flyer points that qualify him for a free upgrade if seats are available, Rep. Heinrich has flown first class between Washington, D.C. and Albuquerque a handful of times, but again at no time has taxpayer dollars been used to purchase first class tickets.

Welcome to Populism 2010, Congressman. Better fasten that first-class seatbelt, it could be a bumpy ride.

TEA FOR WHO?

Another matter we've been writing about this week--that no politicos in New Mexico are running under the Tea Party umbrella. Several readers said the ABQ Tea Party does not encourage candidates to run under its banner. But a reader reminded us that there is a Tea Party Caucus in the US House and pointed to this news release from the Dems as demonstrating that there is a way for a candidate to run under the Tea Party umbrella:

If elected will Jon Barela, Tom Mullins and former Congressman Steve Pearce join Congressional Tea Party Caucus? They’ve been spending countless campaign hours courting Tea Party groups around New Mexico. So, if elected, will Jon Barela, Tom Mullins and Congressman Steve Pearce embrace the founding principles of the Tea Party by joining the Congressional Tea Party Caucus?

None of those R candidates said they would join the caucus.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

The Pot Of Gold That Could Balance The State Budget; It Really Exists, Plus: Guv Candidates Not Triggering Voter Interest, And: Barela's "Long Shot" 

Guess what? There is plenty of money to balance the state budget without raising your taxes one penny, avoid cutting even one government job or any government service, including the public schools.

What is it?

It is $1 billion in capital outlay projects approved by the Legislature since 2005 that remains unspent. The Legislative Finance Committee reports $325 million of the billion is for projects approved in the last two years, but another $700 million is for projects more than two years old.

So if we aren't going to build these projects, how about transferring that money to the general fund to make up for the hundreds of millions in annual budget shortfalls we are hemorrhaging?

Well, lawmakers and the Governor have been doing that to the tune of several hundred million dollars, but they were also busy authorizing more of these projects--often derided as "political pork" as state coffers bulged with money generated during the times of plenty.

There's no way the Legislature and next governor is going to shift the whole $1 billion to the general fund, but that pot of money will be a fall-back and more of it will be deauthorized to avoid a tax increase or employee layoffs. And if the recession deepens, there will be more pressure to dip deeper into this pot of gold.

The capital outlay money is a one time fix. Once you use it to plug a budget hole it's gone--and it also means the job creating construction projects it was destined for would not see the light of day. But with state deficits projected for as far as the eye can see, the next Governor--like the current one--will welcome any fixes they can get--one time or not.

(We'll have an update on this Thursday as the LFC says only a small portion of that $1 billion could be transferred to cover the state budget gap).

TO RAID OR NOT?

We nearly dropped our burrito at Barelas Coffeehouse early this year when State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez told us he saw the state's $14 billion in permanent funds as potential money to bail out the state if the economy continues to tank.

But the longer this economic slide goes on, the fewer burritos we're dropping.
A "raid" on those funds--as it would be dubbed--is not out of the question.

How do Guv candidates Susana Martinez and Diane Denish feel about using the state's permanent savings account to close the budget gap? They haven't been asked yet.

WALL IT OFF

Some R's we've chatted up think GOP Guv hopeful Martinez may have gone too far for her conservative supporters when she said she would not cut any funds from the public schools. One of them telling us:

Susana could have said that no funds for classrooms will be cut. She could have put a wall around that portion of the budget, but said other expenses--such as administration--are fair game.

Martinez and Denish are both boxing themselves in as they pledge not to touch huge portions of the state budget. They may be setting themselves up for some broken promises when and if they reach the Fourth Floor.

NO BEEF YET

You've probably noticed, the Guv race so far has not generated much chatter among your friends and neighbors. That's because the two candidates aren't yet talking forcefully or emotionally about what really is on the minds of the voters--the economy and their future economic security. Former ABQ Dem Mayor and Land Commissioner Jim Baca, 65, and in the game for 40 years, makes the point this way:

...The candidates have not garnered the public's attention yet and a summer of opportunity has passed them by...The candidates are talking a lot about budget cutting, efficiency, and education but...that just (isn't) getting emotions triggered. Just ask yourself: what do I sit around and worry about? School vouchers? I doubt it. Most people are...worrying about having a job, or their kids having a job, or seeing their savings disappear...

Once again it is the economy and so far the state level campaigns in New Mexico don't seem to see the over arching issue. Maybe it is just too big of an issue to tackle.

We would add that there is no silver bullet for today's economic woes. It is complex. And the one thing these modern campaigns abhor is complexity.

LONG SHOT

Rep. Heinrich
There's no doubt that ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Jon Barela is a long shot to take the seat held by Dem Martin Heinrich, but sometimes the long shot scores. This video says it all.

While Barela was becoming a hit on YouTube for his shot-making prowess (probably very well-practiced), there was no comment from Martin on the issue du jour--building a Mosque near Ground Zero in NYC which Barela opposes:

Rep. Martin Heinrich, who represents the 1st District, was unavailable for comment Monday...

No surprise that R's at the NRCC in DC hammered Heinrich hard:

Heinrich is avoiding his constituents and running for cover, just as he’s been doing all August. Instead of taking a stand, Heinrich is the only member of the NM delegation ducking and dodging an important issue to the American people, especially the families who lost loved ones on 9/11:


Maybe Martin is busy making his own YouTube video. But it is odd that Heinrich, who is pretty much mistake-free for his first term, is so tentative on this one. Do the polls showing Barela in the vicinity have him fretting?

While the national R's like poking Heinrich, their serious target this cycle is Dem Harry Teague. The Politico is following the national TV money to our state and says it is headed south. Maybe the R's weren't impressed enough with Jon's viral video.

DID YOU KNOW...


There are over 2,000 Muslims who make ABQ their home.

THE UNFATHOMABLE

Adjectives fail in the effort to describe how one feels when trying to comprehend this news that is happening just steps away from New Mexico.

In Juárez, street shootings and other violence continued Monday after a bloody weekend. There had been nine homicides as of Monday evening. Fifty-one people were slain between Friday and Sunday, a police spokesman said. There were 24 homicides on Sunday, making it one of the deadliest days of the year.

In one incident on Sunday afternoon, gunmen fired 100 rounds, killing four people and wounding seven others in an attack...

And to think back eight years when Big Bill became Governor and how there was so much hope for a constructive and prosperous relationship with Mexico. How and when will the madness end?

THE BOTTOM LINES

It is Linda Serrato of California not Linda Serrano who is the new news secretary for Congressman Ben Ray Lujan. We messed that up in a recent blog....

Reader Ched MacQuigg writes of a recent blog:

Joe, You wrote: "What's interesting about New Mexico is that despite signs such as these there are no candidates running anywhere under the umbrella of the Tea Party."

As a matter of policy, in their mission statement in fact, the Tea Party does not endorse candidates. Therefore, a candidate cannot run under the umbrella of the "Tea Party". This according to the Albuquerque Tea Party mission statement; every Tea Party has their own rules, as there is no "umbrella" Tea Party to unite them.

Interesting. Still, we don't hear any statewide candidates saying they would join the Tea Party.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

A Sign Of The Times From Farmington, Plus: Big Bill Becomes The Teacher's Pet As He Comes With Cash, And: What's On Mary Herrera's Laptop? 

Posted here today is truly "a sign of the times." This pic was snapped by one of our readers near Farmington and flatly declares that Election Day is the day to "take out the trash."

The anti-incumbent mood is especially prevalent among Republicans and in rural areas of the state--like the Four Corners where this billboard stands.

What's interesting about New Mexico is that despite signs such as these there are no candidates running anywhere under the umbrella of the Tea Party.

Conservatives here are upset with the big spending in Washington, but how upset can you get when you work for one of the big federally funded military bases? Or you're in private business and get large government contracts?

That's the paradox for many New Mexico conservatives, isn't it?

SANTA BILL

The Journal's Thom Cole likens Big Bill to Santa Claus, seeing how he is handing out millions in federal stimulus funds to his favorite people and projects. If that's so, the Guv has just put under the Christmas tree one of the biggest political gifts possible for state Democrats. Here it is:

Governor Richardson announced he is committing $2.5 million in Recovery Act funds to New Mexico teachers and other public school employees to help pay for rising health insurance premiums and for professional development...


The award provides $2 million to offset insurance premiums, and is expected to benefit about 33,400 teachers and school employees across the state. The funds will reduce premiums by an average of 2% for the 2010-11 school year...


So what you have here is basically a two percent pay hike for those thousands of teachers who Bill and the Dems hope will fondly remember them come Election Day.

BUT WHERE'S DI?

A reader wonders how Bill's largesse is playing out in the race for Governor and with Dem nominee and Lt. Governor Diane Denish in particular:

What's curious to me is that no one seems to be discussing (so far) is why on earth the Guv is not involving Denish in his latest distribution of stimulus funds. Seems like she could really use the help burnishing her credentials and allows her to show leadership. After all, if she wins the "New Mexico went for the GOP because of Richardson" argument is dead and just maybe his legacy can be brought back from the brink.


Di would no doubt like to go before the TV cameras with Bill and pass out those plump Federal checks, but it's a double-edged sword. She is trying to shed the baggage she picked up from him over eight years. She doesn't need any more photos of herself embracing the Guv with Republican video appears at the ready to take advantage.

HOW LAME IS THIS LAME DUCK?


Meanwhile, another reader makers a point about Bill being a lame-duck. Maybe not so much, they argue:

Maybe he isn’t your ordinary lame duck if he still has the ability to appropriate money to programs and projects, and at the same time, the Legislature gave up its power to make further spending cuts, which the Governor is now doing.


In the meantime, the Governor was able to save public schools from the cuts, at least until federal money makes it to the schools. It seems like the Governor is still in the driver’s seat, as much as some in the media wishes he was a lame duck.

Wikpedia defines a political lame duck this way:

A lame duck is an elected official who is approaching the end of his or her tenure, and especially an official whose successor has already been elected.

We've often referred to Big Bill as a lame duck, but we've also pointed out he can still have influence on this election. The money for teachers is a prime example. And we also blogged of that meeting of regional governors he will host next month in Santa Fe which could also help him mend his image and that of the Dems.

Bill's legacy and Denish's fate seem entwined. If she succeeds him as Governor he may be more likely to be vindicated in the eyes of history. If she isn't, his tenure could come under harsher scrutiny from the next generation.

DI ATTACK

Di is back on the attack against Susana, wasting no time cutting a radio ad scoring the Dona Ana County district attorney for the no-bid office supply contract she awarded one of her top employees as well as her awarding of federal border security funds for employee bonuses. Both were newspaper stories that stung the GOP Guv contender. You can hear the ad here.

Key lines:

Diane Denish is looking out for New Mexico’s budget. And our families.

While Susana Martinez is just another typical politician looking out for herself. She’s not on our side AND not the change we need.

Denish and Martinez have both stayed away from negative TV attacks in recent days, apparently because campaign polling is showing that voters are turned off when it hits. But hit again it will. For now, lower key radio is the preferred Denish method for trying to raise the negatives of her formidable foe.

WEH RESISTANCE
Allen Weh
We are getting this from one our reliable Santa Fe Alligators. It shows that the hard feelings between GOP Guv primary contender Allen Weh and winner Susana Martinez are still raw:

The State Republican Party submitted a public-records request to the Department of Finance & Administration for all of the records they previously turned over to Allen Weh and related to expenditures made by Lt. Governor Denish. The GOP had copies of Weh’s requests to DFA, but not any of the records.

As you may recall, Weh filed a lawsuit over the records and his people eventually inspected all of the responsive records that DFA had, even after the primary election was over. I don’t know the status of the lawsuit. But I thought it was interesting that the state GOP had to request the records itself. Obviously, Weh isn’t sharing any of the information he got.

No, Allen isn't sharing with GOP Chairman Yates and company. Not only because Susana nuked the snot out of him with those immigration TV spots, but also because Yates attacked the TV ads Weh ran against Susana.

As we blogged recently, Weh has not formally endorsed Martinez for Governor.
With this latest news on the state records, no one is holding their breath waiting on Weh to have a change of heart.

ABSENT HEROS


Martinez isn't the only prominent R getting stood up these days. ABQ Mayor RJ Berry had an awkward moment last week when the firefighters he wanted to honor for outstanding job performance failed to show up at the news conference.

The firefighters and the mayor have tangled over pay cuts he has instituted. The firemen say the mayor went too far, that he should have used furloughs, not pay cuts, to save money. Their sentiment was shared by their Democratic allies in the Legislature. Twenty-five of them penned this letter to Berry.

When the mayor was a little boy did he dream, like so many other boys, of becoming a fireman when he grew up? Well, maybe a volunteer fireman.

THE GAMES BEGIN

The negative stuff is almost like Saturday morning cartoons these days. Take, for example, the web site--AskPearceWhy.com. It has a goofy picture of Steve Pearce, the GOP candidate running against southern Dem Congressman Harry Teague, and accuses him of being a dastardly political character. They have a form where you can fill out and ask Steve why he is such a bad fella. We wouldn't bet on getting too many responses back from his campaign.

MARY'S LAPTOP

Alright, everybody. All aboard the Black Helicopters because now it's time for the bizarre story of Secretary of State Mary Herrera's laptop and whether it was infected with porn viruses. Conspiracy? Electioneering? Only the Illuminati really know...

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, August 16, 2010

Martinez Continues March To Middle; Pledges No Medicaid Cuts, Plus: Her Corruption Campaign Hits Pothole; Our In-Depth Analysis of These Moves & More 

With little fanfare but with far-reaching consequences if is she is elected the next governor, GOP Guv nominee Susana Martinez continues her march to the middle of the political spectrum.

Martinez, who earlier broke with fiscal conservatives and pledged not to cut the public schools budget, has now added to her no cut list the massive state Medicaid program. Throw in her new position against school vouchers and you have a GOP candidate who has moved decidedly away from the right wing of her party as well as the Republican leadership in the New Mexico Legislature.

As we have seen so often over the decades, it is the state that defines the candidate, not vice-versa.

Martinez can be accused of abandoning conservative principles or praised as a realistic politician who is showing an ability to forge compromise and move the state forward. Take your pick.

Politically, education and health care are of notable interest to female voters. They will outnumber men at the polls in November--probably about 55% to 45%--and Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish is counting on them to put her over the top. Polls show her sporting a large lead with them.

The public schools and Medicaid together represent nearly 60% of the state budget. (Higher education consumes another 15 percent). Despite immense budget shortfalls they have been spared from the budget knife by an injection of federal stimulus funds and by historically strong political support.

The state faces yearly deficits in the hundreds of millions for the foreseeable future, according to the Legislative Finance Committee. By taking so much off the table a Governor Martinez (or Governor Denish) will be faced with making 100% of their cuts from 40% of the budget.

HOW IT HAPPENED

Martinez's revealing position on Medicaid came with little notice, dropping as it did in the middle of a news article on the state budget cuts being implemented next month:

"As governor, I will not support cutting education or Medicaid, but will not hesitate to cut waste from the rest of the budget in order to get New Mexico's financial house back in order," Martinez said.

Martinez's web site does not say she is against cutting the Medicaid budget. It says:

Our Medicaid dollars have been spread thin and we need to re-focus on core priorities, such as protecting our children, while rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in the system.

Medicaid provides health care for New Mexico children and low-income and disabled adults. In this poverty stricken state, over 400,000 residents are now enrolled in the program at a cost of over $600 million a year and rising rapidly. The no-end-in-sight recession ravaging the state can only inflate those numbers.

MEDICAID POLITICS

Much of Medicaid's benefits are determined by federal eligibility standards. The Legislature has been toying with curbing some benefits such as dental and eye care that are outside federal purview, but Santa Fe's majority Dems have shown little stomach for Medicaid cuts. The program is now a crucial part of the social fabric for nearly 25 percent of the state's population. This is a huge constituency.

A budget conundrum is another reason Medicaid is difficult to cut. For each dollar the state puts up, the federal government gives us three more. When you cut a dollar from Medicaid, you are actually cutting four dollars.

While Martinez says no cuts to Medicaid, she conceivably leaves herself wiggle room on what services the program would provide, perhaps saving money in that regard.

But, like Democrat Denish, the wannabe chief executive from Las Cruces has two very plump sacred cows on her list. If she is elected in November, their presence on the Fourth Floor will most assuredly limit her ability to maneuver and implement the "bold change" she asserts she would bring to Santa Fe.

DI DOES IT TOO

Martinez has had to move to the center to broaden the appeal of her candidacy and Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish has had to move to the right to shed left-wing baggage.

So far, Di has said she is against the issuance of driver's licenses to immigrants and is open to reevaluating the Pit Rule--an environmental standard that has the GOP dominated oil and gas industry in an uproar.

Historically, New Mexico's diversity has forced its statewide politicos to forge compromise and seek succor in the center. Based on the budget statements of Martinez, we now know that election 2010--in the main--will not alter that dynamic.

Because Martinez was faced with a very conservative GOP Guv primary, her move to the middle has had more anguish than Denish's who was unopposed for her party's nomination (Denish is now taking a more populist tone as the campaign nears its peak weeks).

That Martinez is causing second guessing among the faithful was evidenced last week on conservative talk radio KKOB-AM radio as a series of callers to Scott Stiegler's evening show complained of her new stance on school vouchers. Several said they are disappointed in her because she is coming across like any other politician, not an agent of change.

THE CORRUPTION STORY

A flagship issue for Martinez has been state corruption and her pledge to clean it up. That goal is shared by the state's largest newspaper, the ABQ Journal, but it is in that paper where Martinez is now taking a hit.

The editorial pages of the Journal turned decidedly less enthusiastic Saturday over the GOP standardbearer. The paper came with a critical editorial of Martinez, saying a $60,000 office supply contract she signed with an employee in her Dona Ana County district attorney's office doesn't pass "the smell test."

While $60,000 worth of copy paper and Sharpies is peanuts compared to what has gone on in Santa Fe, it smacks of the kind of insider dealing voters are sick of and that the crime-fighting Martinez vows to clean up.

The fact she still sees nothing wrong with the office supply arrangement, or how it looks, begs the question of whether she's up to the task of turning around New Mexico's culture of corruption.

The Journal has made state corruption a banner issue and has had high hopes for prosecutor Martinez. But their faith has been shaken. Their slap at Martinez for being hypocritical plays into the Democratic meme that while Martinez poses as an outsider she is in reality just another politician.

The paper and anti-corruption fighters across the state were particularly taken aback when Martinez said that, if elected, she would do the insider deal again. Back to the editorial:

Martinez says the deal was disclosed to the secretary of state and in audits and that it saved the taxpayers money. She says this was a good deal and that she would do the same thing as governor if it were done transparently and saved money.

With stuff like that, Martinez's Eliot Ness credentials are looking a bit tattered.

Meantime, Janetta Hicks, now the district attorney for the Roswell area and the Martinez aide who got the $60,000 contract, defended it in an interview with the Roswell Daily Record.

“I could offer products to the DA’s office at a cheaper price,” said Hicks, who was elected in 2008 to the 5th Judicial District that encompasses Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties.

“When I had the cheapest price, they bought from me. When I didn’t, they didn’t, and that’s kind of the bottom line,” she said, describing Titan as “something on the ... side.”

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKING

Martinez's move to the middle was anticipated by the political pros who argue the R'S have been left practically homeless because of their too conservative leanings. But the pros also say Martinez, a neophyte on the statewide scene, could benefit from more finesse as she makes her moves.

For example, on her switch on school vouchers. Why not come out for an experimental program that would limit the number of such vouchers and thus the amount of money that would come out of the public school budget? That would assuage her right-wing while still scoring points with Dems. Also, By nixing the vouchers outright she brought into play that damning videotape of her supporting vouchers at an Otero County appearance. The Dems, like that Journal editorial, will use that to hammer the hypocrisy angle.

On Medicaid, why say outright you are exempting the program from cuts? Argue for reforms that could save money, but don't box yourself in.

On the corruption issue, why insist that you would do the same controversial contract deal as governor that you did as district attorney, especially since such deals have since been outlawed? That seems arrogant and a threat to the press which is pining for more transparency and less insider dealing. The statement was simply unnecessary.

As we've blogged, top insider R's are confident that Martinez has a commanding lead and that she can surf into the Fourth Floor on a wave of anger and voter discontent with "Richardson-Denish" and the dreary economy.

But the cracks in the Martinez dam argue for the Republicans paying a lot more attention to the day-to-day campaign and much less to their daily polling numbers.

IN THE NORTH
Your blogger
As Martinez dealt with bumps in the road from the right-wing of her own party as well as the editorial writers, she could take heart in a very healthy turnout in liberal and Democratic Taos. It's reported that some 400 came for a rally there for the GOP state candidates last Sunday, including Susana.

Is that a sign of Martinez's appeal in the heavy Dem north? The Bernallio County Democratic Party seems to thing there is reason for alarm. In a recent newsletter they came with this:

When you talk to someone and they say they are voting for Susana Martinez because of her name - tell them it's not about the name. Tell them it's about what Diane brings to the table, about what Diane has accomplished and what Diane will accomplish once she's in office.

This will be the week we have the first joint appearance by Martinez and Denish. While the Thursday, August 19 event won't be televised, we are told that KANW 89.1 FM radio will air the gubernatorial hopefuls live. The station can be heard in ABQ and a large swath of north central New Mexico. It also streams its programming live on the net, so Guv watchers everywhere will be able to follow all the action.

The Martinez-Denish appearance will be moderated by ABQ Public Schools Superintendent Winston Brooks and will focus on education. There's a lot to cover.

On that topic, one of our Alligators came with this:

Even without the new Federal stimulus money APS had the money to not layoff any teachers if they had been hit with the 3.2 % hit that other state agencies will get.

Don’t believe the hype. When APS says its going to layoff 1000 employees and then three retire and they then call it a miracle balanced budget---please. It's common practice for the larger schools to pigeon hole extra money in various accounts so it won't be reverted.


When in doubt ask for the inside info...Who loves you Joe?


Those Gators are getting feisty. Must be the summer heat....

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
 
website design by limwebdesign