Martin Heinrich is suddenly getting more loquacious. After being chided for nixing a debate on KOAT-TV with Republican rival Jon Barela, the Dem ABQ freshman Congressman has now confirmed debates with KOB and KRQE.

Both of the newly announced face-offs come close to November 2--Election Day--limiting the damage any debate gaffe can do as early voting will make up a majority of the vote cast.

The KOB debate will air Thursday, Oct. 28 from 7 to 8 p.m. The KRQE debate will also air at 7 p.m. and is scheduled for Oct. 30. Earlier, public TV KNME announced a 7 p.m. October 15 Heinrich-Barela debate.

The debates on the big commercial stations, albeit late in the game, get Heinrich back on track with the US House tradition of being accessible to the voters, even though KOAT and its debate co-sponsor--the ABQ Journal--might disagree with that assessment.

BOEHNER FOR BARELA

The tanned one is coming. We speak of perpetually tanned US House Minority Leader John Boehner. The Ohio congressman, President Obama's newest foil, will attend a fund-raiser for Barela in ABQ Saturday, according to GOP Alligators. Boehner is also slated for a Las Cruces appearance and some campaigning with Steve Pearce, the Republican challenger to US Dem Congressman Harry Teague. The weekend forecast looks good if Boehner decides to soak up some New Mexico sunshine, and it won't turn you orange.

BARELA TV

The national R's insist they are not going to abandon Barela even though Heinrich is running ahead. The Hotline reports:

The NRCC is also going on the offense in New Mexico, purchasing $300K for October in Rep. Martin Heinrich's (D) NM 01 district. The NRCC is trying to catch Democrats by surprise here; the DCCC has not reserved time in the district yet...

So did they "buy" the time or "reserve" it? Reserving time but waiting to make a final decision and actually paying for the ads is a common tactic to keep up interest in an race. The $300k is not an earth shaking amount so we'll guess they come with it--but like Ronald Reagan used to say, "trust--but verify."

SEPTEMBER IS HARRY'S

The R's swear they are going to take him out, but freshman southern Dem US Rep. Harry Teague is putting up a good fight in the early going and carrying the month of September. The question is October when the GOP is expected to turn up the firepower.

But for now Dems are taking heart that Harry was up first on TV which helped him a bit in establishing a three point lead in the late August ABQ Journal poll over Republican challenger Steve Pearce. Third party ads have also helped the Teague effort. Teague also handled President Obama's Aug. 31 visit to Ft. Bliss well, garnering good TV face time on the El Paso stations with the Prez by his side. Then another poll comes--albeit one that may have been weighted a bit--but it showed Harry up by seven points. The Pearce camp did not push back. Teague added momentum.

Now Teague comes with an important endorsement in the veteran heavy southern district:

...I am humbled to have been recognized by a group whose work on behalf of our nation’s veterans is an inspiration to me. I want to thank the Veterans of Foreign Wars--Political Action Committee for their endorsement in the 2010 general election...

This honor, however, is not about me, or even about my candidacy.  It is about fighting for the brave men and women who sacrificed so much for our freedoms. I have always said that the reason we are able to enjoy the democracy we have is because of the hardships they endured. While I myself am not a veteran, I consider it a privilege and am proud to work on behalf of the veterans of southern New Mexico.  

Pearce is a Vietnam war veteran and Harry has no military record, but he does sit on the important House Committee on Veterans' Affairs.

Meanwhile, Teague came with a hard-hitting attack ad on Pearce's record on vetearns when he held the southern seat he is now trying to reclaim. Pearce came with a response ad featuring veterans supporting him and knocking down Teague's attack. It is effective.

You might have expected Teague to come out bouncing off the ropes, given how the national political media has written him off. Instead, he is quite effectively executing his strategy. If you show voters you can do that, you show them you belong in the United States Congress.

This is the heavyweight congressional race in New Mexico this year. Pearce and Teague are mature, battle-tested business and political types. We expect Pearce to have his moments in the days ahead and if we are in the Teague camp we continue to worry about the potent material he has stored in his basement and will bring out in October.

But in these still broiling days when summer resists the entrance of fall in the vast spaces of the south, Harry Teague, 61, is taking on the September of his years with a zest that just might see him through November.

OUR ECON WATCH

There is actually something being built in these recession heavy days in New Mexico.

The place where humans can pay to take a ride into space and where companies can launch payloads broke ground in June 2009 and is "looking to be operations-ready in 2011," said Spaceport spokesman Dave Wilson. "It'll be ready for Virgin (Galactic), but we don't know when Virgin will be ready," he said.

And that's a good thing.

At UNM, the the construction boom goes on, even as the general budget is slashed. They come from two different state revenue streams, but that isn't going to stop a debate over construction vs. the classroom.

You don't hear much discussion of growth in the ABQ area, a topic that usually generates a lot of heat. That's because there is hardly any. The Rio Rancho public schools reports enrollment has ceased it's rapid growth this year. It's not surprising. Rio Rancho was ground zero for the state's housing bubble, although it didn't seem so at the time, did it?

We interrupt the downer economic news to bring you this (and we hope it's really true):

The 2009 U.S. Census Current Population Survey shows an increase in the overall number of people in New Mexico with health care coverage during the three year average 2007-2009 from the previous report.

The percentage of insured children in New Mexico increased by 1.1 percentage points, while the percentage of insured adults in New Mexico increased by .2 percentage points.

“For the third year in a row, we have seen an increase in the number of insured children in New Mexico. To also see an increase in the number of insured adults is wonderful news for the people of New Mexico,” said Kathryn Falls, Human Services Department Secretary.

Now, Katy, if you can just get them to lose some weight.

And now back to the downers (also from Human Services)

The 2009 U.S. Census’ Current Population Survey (CPS) released today shows that nationally 14.3 percent of people were living in poverty, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from 2008. In 2009, 43.6 million people in the U.S. were in poverty, up from 39.8 million in 2008. One year estimates for poverty in New Mexico remained unchanged, at 19.3 percent in both 2008 and 2009. A family of four earning less than $22,050 is considered to be living in poverty. 

HEARD ON THE STREET

A reader writes of the 11 police involved shootings in ABQ this year--seven of them fatal:

Joe, I knew Mayor Berry said he was going to run the city like a business, I just didn't know he meant French Mortuary.

Okay, no groaning allowed.

BLOG APPRECIATION

Jim Hannan of Santa Fe writes:

Joe, I wanted to tell you how impressed I am with your writing the past year.  It seems like you have really stepped it up with your analysis and just the breadth of your coverage.

Your recent series on the ethnic history of New Mexico was fascinating.

I'm sorry I haven't had any good stories to pass on to you lately, I've been busy on some other fronts. But keep up the great work.

Appreciate that, Jim. New Mexico politics doesn't allow you to stay laid-back for very long.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From Jay Leno:

President Obama just came out with a children's book called 'James and the Giant Bailout....The book is $17.99, but only for children and families making under $250,000.

Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

Email your news and comments. 

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The race for the New Mexican governorship, already hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in July, will attract former President Bill Clinton for a second visit on behalf of Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish October 14. That word from the all-ears Alligators who say the original Big Bill will take his charm to the Hispanic North with a stop in Española. It is critical territory for the Dems, as GOP Guv nominee Susana Martinez tries to get into Democratic precincts where R's have rarely gone before.

Insiders say Denish's northern offensive could be complemented by a visit from President Obama who is still polling well there. If not to the north, Obama could be used in inner city ABQ and/or Las Cruces. Bill Clinton was last here in May for a closed door Di fund-raiser, but we found these pics of the event.

On the Susana front, an extra early effort is underway by her campaign and state Republicans to bank as much of the early vote as possible. Our GOP readers report receiving robocalls from the state GOP notifying them that they will be getting absentee ballot applications shortly. From the robocall:

I'm calling to let you know you will receive an application to vote absentee. Together, we can end the Richardson-Denish administration and reverse their failed policies such as giving drivers licenses to illegal immigrants..

That's the red meat that Martinez hopes will motivate the R's to get that vote in early. And with good reason. Peak enthusiasm appears to have been reached. The attack campaign against her is bound to drain some of the lifeblood. The earlier she can get her vote in the better. Absentee voting starts Oct. 6.

Readers continue to answer questions we had in the wake of Sunday's ABQ Journal profile of Martinez. One of them was: What was her mother's maiden name? The answer--Paula Aguirre, according to Ancestry.com. She passed in 2006. Martinez said her mother was an El Paso native. Also, a check of records at the El Paso County clerk's web site shows that Martinez's first marriage to attorney Hugh Brower which ended in divorce after three years, was performed on May 23, 1986 when Martinez was 26. She is now married to Dona Ana County Undersheriff Chuck Franco.

The Journal will come this Sunday with an in-depth profile of the much better know Denish

ROLE MODEL?

"She avoided the question" said the ABQ Journal when they asked GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez if she felt like a trailblazer for Hispanic women as she seeks to become the nation's first female Hispanic Governor. We wondered about that. Now comes this piece from the Washington Times in which Martinez takes a different tack:"

"It's exciting," Miss Martinez said recently about her possibly history-making campaign. "I'm hopeful that I can be a positive role model for Hispanic girls, letting them know that they can achieve whatever they want to achieve. But more importantly, I'm concerned about turning things around here in New Mexico."

What's with the "Miss Martinez?" Anyway, in the New Mexico press Martinez has studiously avoided having her candidacy framed as a Hispanic breakthrough, but outside of the state and in national R circles the candidacy is being hailed as a breakthrough for the GOP which has fallen far behind the Dems in fielding minority candidates.

MONEY RACE

We put on our pundits hat and talked the 2010 Guv money race with KRQE-TV's Kim Valles Tuesday. She reported:

Denish's camp is quick to point out that Martinez has earned $850,000 of that $2 million from big out-of-state contributors such as the Republican Governors Association, which gave Martinez $500,000.

Monahan said while the Democrats are using this issue to try to sway voters away from Martinez and towards their self-proclaimed grass roots effort, it's not uncommon.

"Remember, this is a state with a lot more Democrats than Republicans," Monahan said. "In order to raise money to be competitive you are going to have to go out of state."

And there's a trade-off for going so heavy on the out-of-state big conservative cash when you are a native of El Paso--They start calling you a "Tejano."

HEINRICH ON ATTACK

ABQ freshman Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich has opened up a six point lead over Republican Jon Barela but that isn't making him rest any easier in this volatile year. He comes with a direct hit on Barela in his first attack ad, even mentioning his opponent by name which is not the usual approach. The ad follows third party TV attacks on Heinrich.

The producers use some clever imagery--an SUV decorated as a Barela campaign vehicle, replete with the candidate's name and logo. The SUV keeps going backwards as the announcer intones how Barela would take the nation back "to the polices of George Bush and Dick Cheney." At the end Heinrich looks at the parked SUV--now resting on flat tires--turns to the camera and smacks Jon directly:

I'm Martin Heinrich and I approved this message because we can not afford to let Jon Barela take us back.

The R's retorted:

Heinrich launched a false and desperate attack ad against Jon Barela..The move was not surprising, given Heinrich's efforts to avoid, duck, and dodge any discussion of his toxic and costly voting record in Congress that has only worsened our economy since he took office 19 months ago....

The dodging is a reference to Heinrich's refusal to take part in the KOAT-TV-ABQ Journal congressional debate. Now the media rumor mill has a possible debate between the pair on KOB. The duo has confirmed a debate for public TV KNME.

TEXANS FOR DIANNA?

Could some of the same big out-of-state conservative money that has poured into the Susana Martinez Guv campaign also find a home in the coffers of GOP Secretary of State candidate Dianna Duran? We're picking up some intelligence to that effect. In 2006, out of state GOP interests gave hundreds of thousands to GOP SOS candidate Vickie Perea who still lost to Dem Mary Herrera.

This time around Herrera has a bunch of controversies to deal with and the R's may feel its worth a shot to get Dianna up on TV. Recent campaign finance reports show the incumbent with $74,000 cash on hand, not very much if the out-of-state R's come with a couple of hundred thousand. Duran reported about $34,000 in cash in the bank. The downside for Duran is that New Mexicans may look askance at a campaign paid for by outsiders,

The photo posted of Herrera today was taken by photog Mark Bralley at a recent ABQ Isotopes baseball game. He's been snapping Herrera since her days as Bernalillo County Clerk and before. We've also know her for years and did some professional PR work for the SOS office in '08 on a get-out-the-vote project.

Duran is a state senator and former Otero County Clerk. She was the GOP SOS nominee back in '98 and lost to Rebecca Vigil-Giron. The TV advertising could give her a shot at making the race competitive, with the caveat that the Dems haven't lost it in 80 years.

REALITY CHECK

Read this and ask how the Legislature can exempt the public schools from future budget-cutting as Martinez and Denish propose:

The Board of Regents discussed the University’s fate in the face of grim 3.2 percent budget cuts at a meeting in the SUB Tuesday. The cut amounts to about $9.6 million less from the state.

“Unfortunately that pales in comparison with what may be coming,” Regent Don Chalmers said. “Potentially another 5 percent. We also have to fill the hole (from) that one-time money we got from the stimulus package … I think that number is close to $12 million.”

Denish and Martinez have set themselves up for a major confrontation with budget hawks like state Senator John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith if they stick to their guns and say no public schools cuts, even as we continue to slash funding for the state's universities. Maybe they avoid it by simply flip-flopping after they take the oath.

The ABQ Public Schools was not exempted from the recent 3.2 percent across the board budget cuts mandated by the Legislature, but federal stimulus money drastically reduced the hit. That money won't be around next year.

POWELL VS. RUSH
Matt Rush
Ray Powell has never been a prolific fund-raiser and that's the case again this cycle as the former Dem land commissioner has been outraised by Republican challenger Matt Rush who reports getting $125,000 over the summer months to Powell's $54,000. Matt had $123,000 in cash on hand when reports were filed Monday. Powell lagged with $71,000. Powell supporters are sensitive to this. One of them came with this email:

How about a little more info on this--like the fact that Rush got the bulk of his $125,000 from sources that do business with or are attempting to buy future influence. His supporters are majority ranchers or oil companies. That's major conflict!

Yates Petroleum - 2 gifts totalling $11,500; Mac Energy - $10,000; Out of state Texan Rancher (Skiles) - $10,000; Out of state California Rancher (Singleton Properties LLC ) $5,000; Another Texas Rancher (Harper) - $5000; Another Oil Company...

Okay, we get the point. We'll pass on any rebuttal we get from the Matt camp.

And just as we finished up this piece, we saw a new fund-raising plea from Powell that gave us a chuckle. The spin machines are in high gear:

My opponent was expected to receive a windfall of contributions from big oil and gas companies who want to control the Land Office. Even though he was able to out-raise us (thanks to a number of huge contributions from special interests), he was not able to overwhelm us! At the end of the day, the incredible generosity of our grassroots supporters has made sure that we can run an extremely competitive campaign.

#11

Now eleven officer involved shootings this year with seven of them fatal. That threatens to erode confidence in the ABQ police department. Mayor Berry has said he will have a police organization look at what's happening. Are the shootings a fluke? Is it an officer training issue? Are ll of the shootings justified? What about tasers over bullets?

We don't know. the answers APD Chief Schultz recently fired an officer who was involved in a fatal shooting in 2009--before Berry took office. It demonstrated some backbone by Schultz, even as the decision drew fire from the police union.

APD is overseen by Public Safety Director Darren White who assumed authority previously held by the city's chief administrative officer. City Councilor Ken Sanchez reports city lawyers are of the opinion that the switch does not violate the city charter. But this is the first time in modern city history that the police chief has referred to the safety director, not the CAO as "his boss." Can the lawyers explain that?

Who knows if this change in the command structure has anything to do with what's going on, but isn't it time for the quiescent ABQ City Council to start asking some questions about all aspects of these shootings?

Darren White, Mayor Berry, Chief Schultz and Chief Administrative Officer David Campbell (remember him?) are no doubt deeply concerned, but the time has come to have more eyes examine this baffling, but too often deadly mystery.

TV news is starting to hit the police shootings harder and the Alibi comes with a cover story this week. The ABQ Journal has not shied away from the story. From the Alibi:

APD has not instituted any special de-escalation training due to the the high number of officer-involved shootings this year. The Tuesday, Sept. 14 shooting in Downtown Albuquerque was No. 11. In 2009, there were only six.

Lt. Ray Torres, director of training at the police academy, says the spike in shootings is not the result of an education problem. If it was determined that officers couldn't identify targets properly, for example, that might be the kind of thing that would require additional drills. "To date, with the shootings we've had this year, I have not heard of any training issues that have been identified so far...

Mayor Berry's approval rating is in the low 60's, but if he lets that lull him, he could be in for a rude awakening. Don't say we didn't tell you.

WATER WARS

More on New Mexico water now from an engaged blog readership paying close attention to the Democratic hits on Susana Martinez on the crucial issue of water policy. Her Texas heritage and big Texan campaign contributions are being used as a launching pad for attacks that claim she would not be protective of NM when it engaged Texas on water matters.

Former Big Bill water advisor Bill Hume was on these pages Wednesday asserting that Martinez's El Paso background--where she was born and raised--was indeed relevant to the discussion. Now we have a rebuttal from one of the heaviest of the heavyweights on state water rights--former ABQ GOP State Representative and geologist Bob Grant:

Bill Hume, who until eight years ago was the straightforward, unbiased and relatively apolitical editorial page editor of the Albuquerque Journal, retired from that position and became one of the first of many news persons the newly elected Gov. Richardson hired. Bill recently retired from his exempt position in the governor's office after seven plus years as Richardson's "Special Director" for water issues at a salary of $109,584.38 plus retirement benefits of 15 percent of his highest pay.

Bill had the misfortune of working for or with a discredited administration that apparently routinely granted favors. Did his recent connections, responsibilities and job overcome what should have been his common sense and good judgment? Sure, the governor appoints and hires persons responsible for managing and regulating New Mexico's water. But he's responsible for a myriad of other departments and positions, too. And to imply that a gubernatorial candidate who lives south of Elephant Butte would be inclined to favor Texas over his/her own state of New Mexico in water issues or disputes is ridiculous.

Did Garrey Carruthers and Jerry Apodaca, both Governors from Las Cruces, favor those south of Elephant Butte in matters involving the Rio Grande and aquifers like the Salt Basin? Of course not. And neither will Susana Martinez.

Good to hear from you, Bob. Old timers will recall that he made a run for the GOP Guv nomination back in '78. For a number of years he was our Republican Election Night analyst on KANW-FM 89.1.

Hume's take also drew fire from a close associate of current State Engineer John D'Antonio who is the key player in state water policy. The writer asked for anonymity:

Bill has it totally wrong when he says:

The state engineer serves absolutely at the pleasure of the governor. Consequently the governor wields direct control over New Mexico's position in compact matters.

WRONG. Yes, the state engineer is appointed by a governor and confirmed by the state senate; however, according to statute, he or she can only be removed for "just cause." This statute was created to keep politics out of state water management.

Further, the governor of NM wields absolutely NO control over western water law or state compact matters, which were negotiated decades ago by the federal government. Water rights and compact agreements are governed by federal and state water law. Therefore, there is no way any governor can wield direct control in these matters. In fact, the state engineer's office is one of the few, if not the only, office that can not be controlled or manipulated by the governor.

I know that Bill Hume is a very nice guy, but he is also a strong supporter of Diane Denish and is now grasping for straws by coming up with these conspiracy theories about Susana. He definitely knows better...Never once over the eight years he has been state engineer has the Governor asked him to give his supporters water rights favors--he has always left John alone. And if he were to ask for favors, it would not be possible to grant them. The state engineer's office may be one of the last bastions of non-partisan politics. Again, because water rights and compacts are governed by decades of precedence set by the courts, it is fair to both Republicans and Democrats alike--to all New Mexicans. Hume knows better!

We're not done yet. Trudy Valerio Healy, water heavy from Taos and a Diane Denish backer, swings back to Hume's side:

Hi Joe. Bill and Ron's comments on the water in NM and the Governor's power over water were excellent. That power became apparent to me through the eight years that I have served on the NM Water Trust Board..I was also elected Treasurer by the board who represent all aspects of water in NM.,,During my tenure we have given over $200 million to water projects in NM.

My husband and I through the Healy Foundation have been funding water issues and programs for many years. We have sponsored conferences that brought experts from all over the U.S. to study the water compacts and water lawsuits in NM. We have been honored by the Navajo Nation, the OSE, ISC and others for continuing to seek water and accountability for water.

Diane does not have to come up with water policy, she already has. Diane and the Governor mandated a State Water Plan for the first time in NM history. Now each region and every type of water user has a voice in the State Water Plan. Diane's opponent grew up in the Rio Grande Valley. But on the Texas side. Texas is sending her millions of dollars to her campaign. What do they want with a NM Governor? Remember: Texas filed a lawsuit against us seeking our water and won!

With only two weeks to plan a statewide movement in Taos, the people who love the land and water gathered to support Diane on Sun. Sept. 12th. Over 1000 people signed on as co-hosts and names keep coming in. New Mexico water comes from the north. We the people of the north are responsible for the state's watershed. Gathering in Taos is a good start, let the movement spread, like the waters of all of New Mexico. This is about our water! Thank you, Trudy.

Well, thank you Trudy, as well as Bob Grant and our anonymous contributor. There are many disagreements here, but the passion and love for New Mexico and its natural bounty is not in dispute. Our next Governor, whoever it may be, must not forget that.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

If Diane Denish can't close the deal there will be a gaggle of potential candidates scurrying to become the next great hope for the Democratic Party. Denish has been lagging Republican Susana Martinez in he polls, (although there are signs she is closing the gap) and that's fueling the speculation on who climbs up if she falls down. It's not that unusual, either. If Di takes a dive the next Guv campaign will start shortly after Susana Martinez takes the oath January 1. Same deal if Susana falls short. It will take millions in campaign money and persistence in what would be a crowded field to establish yourself as a leading Guv contender who would then be taking on an incumbent Denish or Martinez. So who is on this futuristic list? To the video tape.

Friends of Denish running mate Brian Colon are already talking him up as a possible 2014 contender, but losing with Di would be a major black mark, not to mention his ties to Big Bill. Still, he was chairman of the Dems has a lot of contacts and knows how to raise money.

State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez weighed a run for Governor in 2010, but decided against. How about '14? The leader has the smarts, but he could be 64 in five years. Is that too old in a youth oriented world?

Attorney General Gary King, a favorite for re-election this year, has long longed to be Governor like his father Bruce before him. He's run for it before with no luck. Gary will also be in the over 60 crowd in '14. Still, his fire will burn again if Di goes up in flames

Put former State Rep. Joe Campos on the list. He lost his bid for the Dem lt. governor nod this year, but he got a taste of the spotlight and liked it. The wooden style would have to be worked on, but he now knows what it would take.

If you go south the day after a Di defeat you might hear rumblings about Las Cruces State Rep. Joe Cervantes weighing a Guv run. But he would have to show more heart than he did when a few years ago he got in the southern congressional race only to back out. He'd be 53 in 2014--a good age for the run--and has the political savvy to be a player

Dark horses? How about up and coming ABQ State Senator Tim Keller. Or 10 year legislative veteran ABQ Rep. Al Park? And don't forget "unknown." The demise of Denish would throw the doors wide open for a run by a business type or even a below-the-radar politico not on the scuttlebutt list.

Whoever it would be won't have it easy. The last two governors have both easily won re-election--one Dem and one R. 

THE R'S BENCH
Doug Turner
And what of the Republican future should Martinez falter in the stretch and break a leg? The list of possible Guv hopefuls is much shorter in the minority party but sure to grow if opportunity beckons. Right now Doug Turner, who lost to Martinez in the primary, but vindicated himself with a good campaign, is high on the list of probable candidates. And put on there Martinez lt. governor running mate John Sanchez. He was the 2002 nominee, losing to Bill Richardson. A second loss as the number two would be bitter, but Sanchez is a survivor.

GOP dark horses? How about Matt Chandler, the current GOP candidate for attorney general. He has an uphill fight against Gary King, but he is showing the traits of a possible future thoroughbred. And Brian Moore of Clayton. The former state rep could not beat Sanchez for Light Guv this year, but he is the real deal. Look for him to make a move if Martinez misses. And Keith Gardner, the state House Minority leader is no slouch. We could see him carrying the ball in '14.

Like the Dems, a Martinez loss would open the flood gates because there is no obvious successor. Business types and others not currently though of could easily emerge.

But enough of our excursion into the future, we have plenty of action to keep us busy in the here and now as this Guv race continues to unfold. Here's some of the latest trail dust....

MORE ON MARTINEZ MONEY

Looks like Susana raised about a million of her $2 million in the last three months from three big sources--$500,000 from the Republican Governors Association. Other big donors were $200,000 from Foster Friess of Jackson, Wyoming and $100,000 from B. Wayne Hughes from Malibu, CA. Friess comes at politics from a Christian Right perspective. He made major money from his management firm Freiss Associates. Giving $50,000 was Sigma Ventures headed by Michael Bleyzer. All three are prominent national conservatives with ties to Karl Rove and have showered money on hard-right causes.

So Martinez raised $2 million, but $850,000 of it came from out-of-state big money. She will take some hits for that as she did when she accepted $450,000 from Texas developer Rob Perry of Swiftboat fame. It stands out because of her campaign against corruption and pay-to-play and could hurt her with independents. But Denish has also taken some $50,000 contributions from the big unions and trial lawyers. The voter is left saying "they all do it!"

Denish has a slight money edge, having $300,000 more banked for the final stretch than Martinez, but Martinez doesn't have to match the quasi-incumbent, just stay in the neighborhood. She has done that.

THIS BATTLE RIGHT NOW

The battle now is now all message, not money.

If we are in the Martinez camp, we are worried that she has nothing on the air that relates to voters' economic insecurity. Denish does. On the other hand, if you think the mood is anti-incumbent, throw the "Richardson-Denish" bunch out of office no matter what, maybe you don't think you need much messaging about the economy. But it's risky. We also wonder about some radio for Martinez. As far as we know, she has nothing major going on there. She may want to take some of her new found campaign funds and get some up to appeal even more to rural voters.

If we are in the Denish camp, we are still worried that we are stuck in the mud, unable to move with Big Bill in the back seat. But it's too late to try to publicly separate yourself from him. You will look cynical and opportunistic. Best to hammer the economic message which resonates better with voter than the Republicans. And hammer it with passion and emotion that connects with people. Do they know how to do that in the cookie-cutter TV shops ringing the nation's beltway?

ANOTHER TV DEBATE

We've got our second TV Guv debate scheduled. KOAT-TV says it will host the pair Sunday, October 17 at 6 p.m. The face-off will last one hour. KOB-TV earlier announced that Denish and Martinez will debate on their air Thursday, October 21 at 7 p.m.

From a strategic perspective, both debates will be important. However, the KOAT debate will be up against Sunday night football and the "60 Minutes" broadcast on KRQE-TV which attracts older voters, those most likely to cast ballots. Also, the early hour on a weekend evening will cut the available audience. We look at the KOAT debate as the preliminary bout and the KOB debate as the main event, Both should be worth the price of admission.

HIGHEST BIDDER?

Denish put out this missive to supporters in response to the news that Martinez received those large out of New Mexico contributions:

Susana Martinez has put her candidacy up for sale to the highest out-of-state bidders and national Republican insiders. In fact, 52% of the donations on her most recent report have come from outside New Mexico.

To which one of our readers responded:

New Mexico is not for sale? That's funny. It certainly was under Big Bill. Denish is grasping at straws.

MORE TEXAN?

A reader writes:

Susana Martinez is from El Paso and Diane Denish is from the Hobbs oil patch in Little Texas. El Paso has much more in common with New Mexico than does Little Texas.

CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

The ABQ Journal has started its campaign coverage, featuring a page a day on the action. Sean Olson is the paper's political reporter. Veteran John Robertson is the Journal's politics editor. The paper also has hired Deborah Baker, formerly of the AP. The Journal says it will do three opinion polls this cycle, with the second one expected in early You need to be a paid subscriber to access most of the paper's content.

WATER WONDERING

We might have thought twice before we blogged that the New Mexico Governor doesn't have all that much power when it comes to water disputes. The subject came up because Susan Martinez, born in El Paso, is being attacked in the north as a possible enemy of the state's water rights because of her Texas background. Bill Hume, A Dem who served as Governor Big Bill's water advisor, clarifies the Guv's power and has some interesting observations on where Martinez fits in:

First: The New Mexico commissioner on the Rio Grande Compact is the State Engineer, by statute and federal law. The state engineer serves absolutely at the pleasure of the governor. Consequently the governor wields direct control over New Mexico's position in compact matters. Secondly, the Interstate Stream Commission, charged primarily with seeing to New Mexico's compliance with interstate compacts, is also governor-appointed. Any ISC that thwarts the inclinations of a governor could find itself with new members.

A third complicating factor is that the "border" for Rio Grande compact purposes is Elephant Butte Reservoir. Las Cruces and Elephant Butte Irrigation District are on the other side of the compact from the Middle Rio Grande and the tributaries of the north. I think there is great potential for any governor with El Paso connections to be between a rock and a hard place on Rio Grande water issues, regardless of motivations and intentions...

Also, there is the matter of the vast freshwater reserves of the aquifer underlying the Salt Basin in south central New Mexico. El Paso is among the Texas interests that have contemplated development of that water on the Texas side for delivery to municipal and industrial use in the Rio Grande Valley. The best part of the aquifer is in New Mexico, but aquifers are impervious to surface political boundaries.

This one issue isn't the entire campaign, to be sure, but I think the water issue and the ramifications of Susana's background and life experience--coupled with the power over water issues she would wield as governor--are a legitimate facet of it.

That was from ABQ. Now we head up La Bajada to the Roundhouse and legislative analyst Bill Gardiner who gives us an excellent refresher on water power:

I have been a bill analyst for the NM Legislature since 1997 at the key water and natural resources committees through 2009. The governor makes all the agency cabinet appointments and sets the direction for all water and natural resources policy administrative and legislative. The most critical position being State Engineer. With a little familiarity of New Mexico history you will find that there has been State Engineers with more political power than the governor that they served. One who led us into water debts with Texas.

On the point of influence over Texas matters, the Governor gets to appoint the Interstate Streams Commission Engineer who represents NM as one of the compact commissioners from the participating states in several compacts, Rio Grande, Pecos, Costilla etc.The governor also gets to appoint the members of the Water Trust Board and make appointments to the EIB Environmental Improvement Board, The Tribal Water board and the Las Colonias newly developed board and on the Water Cabinet the Secs. of DFA and NMFA are appointed by the Governor.

To not know that without water rights there is no community prosperity is to not know NM politics very well. Collin Mc Millan was a prime mover getting Gary Johnson elected and his friend's son Tom Turney became the OSE. There is more economic value that passes through the Water rights division of the State Engineer Office than commerce than generated from NM and passes out through our DOT system. You can't open a sandwich shop without water.

Thanks, Bill and Ron. As the saying goes: Whisky's for drinkin' and water is for fightin'. We'll look for some water policy from Susana and Di and post anything we find before the election. Or else we're all wet....

This is it--the home of New Mexico politics.

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The northern negative campaign against GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez is heating up and going public. This comes as Dems continue to fret over the appeal of the El Paso native to Hispanics--usually the state's most reliable Democratic voters.

Take a gander at this snapshot one of our Alligators sent us from a recent Taos political event. It shows Texas in the form of a shark gobbling up New Mexico. The image taps into the centuries old distrust of anything Texan in the Democratic precincts of El Norte.

Jokes about the relationship are long-standing. For example: "Why is New Mexico so dry? Because Texas sucks!"

And then there's long-ago history where Texans were seen as possibly taking over fair New Mexico in the days when Mexico ruled here. 

Rumors have been spread in the north that Martinez is a threat to New Mexico water rights, that she would sell the state out in any disagreements with her native Texas. Martinez disputes that.

Not that the facts are going to get in the way of a political attack. And on the attack front, organizers of a third party group not affiliated with the Denish campaign tell us they will be coming with a series of nine radio ads in the Hispanic North to soften support for Martinez. One of them will include the water angle. Here's some of a draft of the first spot:

Susana Martinez who are you? Really! Once you where a Democrat, now you are a Republican. You say you are from the Rio Grande Valley, but why do you hide that you are from Texas? Once you were for vouchers, now you say you’re not...Susana Martinez...Who are you...Really?

While the Tejano angle started quietly enough, it has gained steam as the Guv race enters its most intense stage. One of our spotters said that at a Santa Fe Labor Day rally Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish said something to the effect of: "Do you want to keep the water flowing?" The crowd cheered.

Both of Martinez's parents were Hispanic and the candidate speaks Spanish. A number of northern observers also say Susana's "look" connects with Hispanic families.

Those factors and more have made the ordinarily safe Democratic precincts of the Spanish north battleground areas where political trench warfare is now taking hold and where no holds are barred.

SUSANA'S EX

 The newspaper reported Sunday that Martinez is in her second marriage, her first one having lasted three years and ending in divorce. But the paper did not give the name of that first husband. Our Legal Beagles checked in to tell us it is Hugh Brower who married Martinez.

After both graduated from the University of Oklahoma law school they moved to Las Cruces where he practiced law for three years before the divorce. He has since moved to Oklahoma. We put in a phone call to him, but have not heard back. Martinez joked to the paper that the marriage broke up because they were both lawyers. "Two lawyers in one household, whooo.."

SUSANA AND THE PRESS

She may have a honeymoon going with certain segments of the New Mexico press, but some of the ink-stained wretches are getting restless over what they see as Martinez's strategy of avoiding questions from reporters. Syndicated columnist Harold Morgan:

...The Martinez campaign, specifically Ryan Cangiolosi, the campaign manager, declined to make Martinez available for a one-hour interview, citing scheduling complexities. Yeah, right, Ryan. The interview was to be the basis for two of my columns that go to ten newspapers around the state.

Martinez therefore becomes a statewide candidate seeking a top office who is unwilling to talk to the media. For me that’s somewhere between dumb and bizarre. But then I’m media.

Martinez is not as well-versed in public policy as Denish and that's the short answer on why her campaign does its best to keep her under wraps--they fear she is prone to making a gaffe that could prove crippling. 

Hiding the candidate from the media doesn't necessarily come with a political price--the public doesn't get too excited about it--but it does tell you how a candidate feels about the press and answering impromptu questions. If Martinez isn't open to reporters during the campaign, why would she change if elected Governor? She probably wouldn't, but we would add that candidates who greet the scribes with open arms during the campaign are just as susceptible to crawling into the bunker once they get the power.

SUSANA MONEY MUSCLE

Democratic operatives describe themselves as nonplussed that Martinez raised $2 million over the summer and now has $1 million in cash on hand compared to Di's $1.3 million. Still, this is just what Susana needed to stay competitive. Assuming it will happen and actually making it happen are two different things. The AP said there was technical trouble filing the details of her fundraising report and thus there was no word on how many, if any, really large contributions Martinez received. She took $450,000 from Texas developer Rob Perry earlier this year, the largest campaign donation in state history. The Martinez campaign told TV news it will have the report filed today ($500,000 of her $2 million came from the Republican Governors Association).

Denish raised about $800,000 in the quarter, including three $50,000 donations from big interest groups like the trial lawyers. She raised much of her cash hoard in the beginning years of her campaign--before the economic crash and the rise of Martinez.

Di reports collecting $5.787 million since starting her long campaign march over three years ago. That means she has spent nearly $4.5 million. And she started September trailing Martinez by six points? That shows you the headwind the lieutenant governor has faced.

The happiest people in New Mexico this month are the managers of the big TV stations. The finance reports, covering money raised and spent from June 25 to September 6, reveal that the candidates spent a combined $3 million in the past 10 weeks on an orgy of advertising that has yet to reach its climax. Di spent nearly $150,000 on radio. Will that help her get an edge in rural areas?

With both camps armed with enough cash to each buy a dozen Mercedes and the polls showing a anyone-can-still win-contest, we are going to get our first genuine race to the wire in a governor's race in decades. We're looking forward to it and have asked the International Blogging and Pajama Society to rule that any polls showing a candidate with a double-digit lead be suppressed until at least Oct. 25. We don't want anything spoiling the fun.

OTHER MONEY ACTION

 I asked some of my veteran Democratic analysts to give you their takes on the race for attorney general and secretary of state based on the September money reports released Monday. They think the incumbents remain well-positioned.

In the AG contest, incumbent Dem Gary King has $340,000 in cash on hand. GOP challenger Matt Chandler comes with $165,000. King has a commanding lead in the first ABQ Journal poll--48% to 33%, with King getting 62% of the Hispanic vote. Analysts Steve Cabiedes and Harry Pavlides say Chandler, the Clovis area district attorney, will need to double his cash account and hit with TV spots that are just right to make this race competitive.

In the secretary of state's race, Republicans are hoping to take advantage of controversies erupting under incumbent Dem SOS Mary Herrera, but the money reports may deflate those hopes. Herrera has $74,000 in cash and Republican challenger and State Senator Dianna Duran comes with $36,000.

From Cabiedes:

The various news stories have not really penetrated the public consciousness. Duran needs to be up on TV pounding them. But she isn't and she doesn't have the money to do so. All things being equal in this Democratic majority state, Herrera remains a solid favorite for re-election..."

No R has been elected SOS since the 20's, but we'll keep an eye out for any developments that could rewrite that history. No polling has been released on the race.

One of our Senior Alligators got pushback from the Ray Powell campaign when he warned that the Dem nominee for land commissioner might be outraised by Republican challenger Matt Rush. Turns out that Gator had it right. Rush, a Roosevelt County rancher, raised more than $125,000, compared with $54,000 for Powell, who headed the land office for 10 year. Rush has $123,000 cash on hand, while Powell had $71,000. The Dem is favored, but Powell will watch anxiously to see if big oil and gas money comes in for Rush--just as our Gator is waiting.

FIRE THEM

From GOP lieutenant governor hopeful John Sanchez:

I hope that one of the first things Susana Martinez does as the next governor is to fire every single appointee by Bill Richardson....

US HOUSE ACTION


The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new  Anzalone Liszt Research, Inc. poll that shows Congressman Harry Teague leading Republican challenger Steve Pearce by 7 points.

In the initial head-to-head in the race for New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district, Teague leads Pearce 51 to 44 percent. Conducted September 7-9, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

No way there are only 5 percent undecided voters in the southern district in mid-September. Our best guess is that this survey included "leaners" to get Harry over the magic 50 percent mark, but polling experts will tell you it's too early to include them (The poll questions or other methodology were not released).

Also, Pearce has barely started his media campaign against Teauge and the R's have yet to unleash their most powerful ammo. In addition, polling expert Nate Silver, blogging at the New York Times, still pegs Pearce's chance of taking the seat at better than 60 percent.

Those are the caveats, but it doesn't take away from the fact that the R's, supremely confident about this one, may be in for a much tougher race than they may have thought. The ABQ Journal late August poll had Harry leading Steve by three points.

In other words, this could be a "Dawn Special," meaning we are on the radio until dawn waiting to call a winner.

So go ahead, Harry. Dance a jig, kiss a pretty girl and snort a shot of something strong, but keep your eyes open. There are snakes in that green grass.

REMEMBER HIM?

Remember Greg Fouratt, the Republican US Attorney who made sensational headlines as he pursued a corruption indictment against Big Bill, but in the end came with a criticism of the Guv, but no charges? Well, Fouratt may be out of mind, but he's not out of sight. There was speculation that new Dem US Attorney Ken Gonzales would keep Fouratt on as his First Assistant, the second in command at the office. That didn't happen but one of our Alligators reports Fouratt landed softly:

Greg Fouratt was appointed "Senior Litigation Counsel" for the US Attorneys Office and is making the same pay. Steve Yarbrough, the First Assistant under Greg Fouratt, was kept as First Assistant with Ken Gonzales citing the need for "continuity" within the office to keep him as First Assistant...

Has the doom and gloom surrounding Diane Denish's gubernatorial chances peaked? These next two weeks will be critical for her to start making her move. Martinez is still heavy on the negative, anticipating the Democratic move to get the party faithful to start the long march home. Denish must make Democrats care about this election. If she does she can lose all the Republicans and most of the independents and still take the prize.

Martinez is probably going to feel some wind in her face here. If Denish can tie up the polls or come close, she can then hope to force the error from the less experienced Martinez. Fear, panic and finger-pointing are all part of a campaign that loses a lead. It is the ultimate test of campaign character. It can tell us how steady a hand a candidate would have if they become Governor.