Heinrich vs. Barela
We have proposition for you. Can we have Martin Heinrich and Jon Barela run for Governor Tuesday and Diane Denish and Susana Martinez go for the ABQ congressional seat?

That's the take away we had from watching the debate between Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich and his GOP challenger Jon Barela. Here we had two guys who had actually mastered their subjects, had some firm ideas on what they believed and when they attacked their foe they also told you what they would do differently. Full debate video is here. KRQE-TV will host the final Heinrich-Barela debate at 7 p.m. Saturday

These two might even give us a plan to balance the state budget, a far cry from what Di and Susana are willing to do.

Barela appeared more on his game than Heinrich who kept adjusting his microphone and stumbled around a bit in answering questions during the hour long face-off aired live on KOB-TV. Where was this aggressive and persuasive Barela back on Labor Day? Would he be in command of this race if that fella had shown up back then?

And where was Martin Heinrich's tie? Was the tieless look a bid for the casual Dem voter since so many R's have already voted early? Or did Martin spill red chile on his neck wear at dinner and had to punt?

Barela was strongest on the immense Washington spending. Heinrich was at his best when connecting with blue-collar voters. (Hey, maybe that's why no tie?)

BARELA TV

R's think Jon Barela is breathing down the neck of Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich, but they have to keep the heat on. They've come with a heavy attack hit late in the game here, accusing Heinrich of making "false smears." The ad shows in small boxes three of Heinrich's commercials, including that powerful one from 69 year old Liz who says she doesn't trust Barela when it comes to Social Security. That ad asserts that Barela supports privatization of Social Security. In his latest ad, Barela quotes the ABQ Journal as saying Heinrich's commercials are "baloney." He repeatedly quoted that phrase at Thursday night's KOB-TV debate.

However, as we've previously pointed out the Journal asked Barela about his privatization stance when the Heinrich ad first aired. Barela told the paper that he was not for privatization, but then added: "Not at this point."

The newspaper, in an opinion on their editorial pages endorsing Barela's candidacy, called the notion that Barela would privatize Social Security "baloney." The editorial said:

Campaign attacks insinuating he favors privatizing Social Security and that he lobbied for the Chinese to send jobs offshore are baloney. There is zero evidence to support the first charge.

During the KOB debate Heinrich referred to Barela's "not at this point" quote and added that he is "taking off the table" any privatization now or in the future. Barela repeated that he believes Heinrich was lying about his Social Security position. He did not reference his "not at this point" quote from the Journal. Heinrich's ad was wrong to imply that Barela has supported privatization, but he did leave the door open for such a move in the future and that lent credence to the charge.

Believe us. Seniors who are the heaviest voting group in this mid-term election are paying close attention to every word said about this topic.

On another point that has dominated the TV ad wars, both Barela and Heinrich are over-the-top when they go after one another on their lobbying records. Neither were big-time players and it seems to be an argument over semantics, not character.

BARELA IN THE MAIL

Jon is also flooding mailboxes with a piece that says: "Martin Heinrich walked into a bar....and left behind a million dollars." Barela's piece says Heinrich voted for a bill that gave O'Niell's Pub on East Central Avenue $1 million in stimulus money, but Heinrich's camp retorts:

Heinrich nor his office have had any role in any Small Business Administration loan obtained by O'Niell's Irish Pub. O'Niell's is a local, small business that applied and qualified for an SBA loan--just like any other business in Albuquerque could do...

This is the kind of piece that sometimes comes across to voters as a stretch by a candidate in the final hours. Barela says his internal polls show him two points ahead, but he's not acting like it. We maintain our "lean Dem" rating on this contest, despite Barela's impressive late-hours debate charge. Let's see if we are very far off or on the money when the Journal poll hits the driveways Sunday morning.

PEARCE ALONE

Steve Pearce is one tough cookie and it's hard to take in a half-hour of him delivering his dour diagnosis of the state of America. But Pearce scored thirty minutes all to himself Thursday night from KOB-TV. The reason? His Dem opponent for the southern congressional seat, Rep. Harry Teague, did not want to do the debate. The station then offered Steve the free time. You can see it here.

Anchor Nicole Brady ably tossed questions at the very conservative Pearce who grabbed at them like a hungry lion. This was appropriate pre-Halloween fodder for the liberals watching this exhibit of ultra-conservatism in their living room dens in the precincts of ABQ's Nob Hill and the North Valley.

But Pearce has his pulse on the tea party prone district he hopes to again represent. He has run a relentless campaign against Teague and most of his TV ads have been at least somewhat connected with reality, unlike what we have seen in the race for Governor, for example.

Pearce should have no problem bringing this one home and if Martinez wins the Governorship, he will be a moderating influence on those R's who worship at her altar but fear the formidable Pearce.

ON THE PHONES

Former US Marshall Gordon Eden was heard on a robocall for GOP Guv nominee Susana Martinez this week, damning Diane Denish's record on border security. Eden was head of the motor vehicle department under the last GOP Guv, Gary Johnson. Will he be back if Martinez wins? His tenure as Marshall ended when Obama appointed Dem Conrad Candelaria to fill the post so he is available.

Not many names have circulated as possibles in a Martinez administration. They don't want to encourage over-confidence, but the resumes are starting to circulate.

HELPING SUSANA

One of the Alligators e-mailed us from the Martinez lunch at the ABQ Country Club this week that featured Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and joked that the Martinez campaign would like to thank us for helping them raise money. Say what? "You mentioned the Pawlenty lunch on your blog that morning and it really helped pack the house, including some Democrats." They ribbed.

Well, the wind-sniffers are out in full force now. They have only days to ingratiate themselves if Martinez wins. As for your blog indirectly raising money for Martinez, we're donating any commissions to a fund for heartburn pills for State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez. If Susana gets in, he's going to need the help.

GUV LOVE

Diane Denish says in one of her final TV ads that she will never stop fighting for the "state that we love." But the odds are she will be fighting for it in retirement.

She continues to score Susana for "favoring out-of-state corporations" that she says will mean cuts to education and even public safety.

It's all turnout now. Di has to somehow move the needle among the 2008 Obama voters. If she can somehow turn enough of them on in the final hours, we could get a midnight surprise Election Night.

She has taken a more populist tone in the final days--as advised to do so by the Senior Alligators several weeks ago. She's even cut a pro-choice radio ad.

WEATHER FACTOR

For Denish the best possible weather for Election Day is snow in the SE--like smack in the middle of Chaves and Lincoln counties. We had a big snowstorm there in 2000 that kept many conservative R's home and out of the voting booths. It made possible Dem Al Gore's less than 1,000 vote victory over Bush.

For Martinez, the best weather is snow smack in the middle of the Hispanic Dem North. Even though she is pulling votes there, it remains her weakest region. Of course, some 60 percent or so of the vote is now cast before the actual Election Day, making the weather much less of a factor than in days of yore.

STATE OF THE RACE

We're far from alone in our take that this has been a downer of a Guv campaign. The state is in a big financial mess, but the campaigns were trivial at best and amoral at worst. The Rio Grande Sun editors in Espanola held their noses and endorsed Denish, but not before condemning the campaign to the ash heap of history:

Regardless of who you would like to be the next governor, the staunchest of either party must agree, both Diane Denish and Susana Martinez should be ashamed of themselves. Neither has conducted themselves in a professional manner, let alone a civilized one or the way we'd like our governor to behave. We've learned little about either's plans, goals or ideas. The focus has been on who's from Texas, who flew the state jet or gave a bonus to whom and how we can cut a couple of jobs and presto, the budget is balanced...

Indeed.

It's not only those trick or treaters getting scary looking right around now, the stuff in voters' mailboxes in the final hours of Campaign 2010 can be hair-raising, or at least those producing it hope it is.

Posted here is an example of a mail piece (Secretary of State candidate Dianna Duran who is battling to unseat incumbent Dem SOS Mary Herrera says it is not from her). It notes that Herrera is second in line to succeed the Governor, meaning when the Guv and lieutenant governor are out of town or otherwise not available, Herrera is acting Guv. It's happened a couple of times in the last four years and nothing much happened, but since then Herrera has been mired in ethics accusations from former staff members. We don't know if this piece that landed in our e-mail box has actually been sent, but it is representative of the hit mail circulating out there.

(As if Mary needed any more problems, a computer glitch delayed early voting in some parts of the state this week).

SOS FOR SOS

Republicans think we are about to see history made and have our first Republican secretary of state elected since 1928. It would be a biggie for them.

The secretary of state's office is an important cog in the once every decade redistricting of the state's legislative and congressional seats. With a Republican in charge and a Democratic legislature, that could get interesting.

With no independent polling, the SOS race is providing plenty of suspense for politics watchers. It will be in our sights when we take to the radio airwaves next Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. to give you all the latest results on KANW 89.1 FM. And don't forget our pre-game show Monday, Nov. 1 at 5 p.m.

THE CLUES OF HISTORY

The mind wanders in the closing hours of a major campaign, assessing it and comparing it with others that have passed your way through the decades. Perhaps this one is most similar to a year that was before our time.

In 1966, Republican Dave Cargo, like Susana Martinez today, campaigned on a reform and anti-corruption platform. That year Cargo also brought in with him a Republican state treasurer and state auditor--The first time that had happened since the 1928 election and before the advent of Roosevelt's New Deal in 1932 that turned the state Blue for good.

In 1986, we recall how a snowstorm hit the north, dampening Dem turnout and making possible the election of Republican Hal Stratton as attorney general, also the first R to take that post since 1928. We also got our first Republican land commissioner since 1928 that year. Republican Garrey Carruthers took the Governor's office in '86 after four years of Dem Guv Toney Anaya who ended his term extremely unpopular.

In 1994, Republican Gary Johnson won the governorship, but did not bring in with him any of the down ballot races.

So in the elections of '66 and '86 reform played a prominent role and we had R success at the top and down the ballot. Will history repeat in the reform election of 2010? If it does, the likeliest Dem victim is Secretary of State Herrera. But the rest of the down-ballot Dems will be holding their breath until the results settle the issue Election Night.

IN OTHER ACTION...
Janice Arnold-Jones
She would not be around to enjoy it, but outgoing ABQ GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones claims Republicans have a shot at picking up as many as 10 state House seats next Tuesday. Janice, who was defeated for the GOP Guv nod by Susana Martinez and now hosts a daily talk show on ABQ's KIVA-AM, says even usually safe Dem incumbents like Danice Picraux are feeling voter heat this cycle.

In Janice's perfect political world we would think incumbent Dem reps like Jeff Steinborn in Las Cruces and Nathan Cote in the SE would be ousted. She has a different list. In any event, a pick up of ten seats would mean the House--currently with 45 D's and 25 R's--would be evenly split between the two parties--35 to 35. Has that ever happened before? If it did, there would probably be co-chairs of the major committees and maybe even co-speakers of the House. Talk about wild.

Arnold-Jones is the most optimistic R prognosticator we've heard from, but even Dems expect to lose three or four House seats when all the counting is done.

SOCIALLY SPEAKING

We've heard the Guv candidates talk about the economy and jobs but not much on the social issues of abortion, domestic partnerships and medical marijuana.
Here's the deal.

THE MONEY GAME

The tsunami of cash coming into the state's two competitive congressional races is overwhelming. The WaPo has been tracking it and reports in the ABQ Heinrich-Barela battle:

Interest groups and political parties have reported spending $2,613,153 on independent campaigning in New Mexico's 1st congressional district this year, with $1,967,238 benefiting Republicans and $645,915 benefiting Democrats.

And in the southern US House contest featuring Republican Pearce and Dem Teague, the paper Democrats: informs:

Interest groups and political parties have reported spending $2,294,524 on independent campaigning in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district this year, with $877,992 benefiting Republicans and $1,416,532 benefiting Democrats.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

In a closing spot for his re-election, Dem US Rep. Heinrich takes note of the deluge of TV ads and how they irritate viewers, saying: "By now, we’ve all had enough of these commercials..."

If it's not a cliffhanger, we should be able to call the ABQ congressional race shortly after 7 p.m. Tuesday. The Bernalillo County Clerk should release the early vote totals shortly after 7. The county makes up about 90 percent of the 1st congressional district. Barela needs to make his move right away with that early vote. The ballots cast on the actual Election Day will favor the Democrats.

The Heinrich-Barela goes to the tube tonight. The dueling duo will meet in debate at 7 p.m. on KOB-TV.

The station will also do a thirty minute question and answer session with GOP southern congressional candidate Steve Pearce at 8 p.m. Dem US Rep. Harry Teague declined the debate invitation. Hey, we'll call this "Pearce's Place." R's will think it's about serious public policy and the Dems will think it's a sitcom.

BACK IN THE MAIL

One of the political consultants was upset with this piece sent out by ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill who is getting a stiff challenge from Republican attorney Justin Horwitz. He wrote:

Is it just me or do I sense an anti-Semitic undertone (see the cartoon)? I found it very curious.

We hope not. The exaggeration of the nose on the cartoon character is what the consultant is getting at. This is dicey stuff and with an anything goes mentality when it comes to late mailers, we're sure there's other eyebrow raising stuff out there. When we go to the mailbox these days and blindly stick our hand in, we feel like we are about to put our fingers in a powerful mousetrap. How about you?

BALDERAS TV

As soon as Diane Denish starts to breathe the oxygen gets sucked out of the room. And so it was on Tuesday as the Dem Guv nominee was knocked to her knees just as she was trying to get up to mount a final assault. The Rasmussen Poll gave Republican Guv nominee Susana Martinez a ten point lead--52-42. The poll was conducted Sunday, refuting Dem contentions that Denish was starting to finally move off the 42 percent mark. Rasmussen says Susana is getting 90 percent of the R's and is blowing the doors off with independents.

42 is like unlucky 13 for Di. She has been stuck there for months. Martinez is now at 50 in her own poll and 52 in Rasmussen. The Journal reports their final findings Sunday.

The polls get more accurate as you get closer to Election Day, so unless there is a major misstep by Susana she should be your next governor.

GETTING IN ON IT

We had blogged Monday that Denish might not yet have flat-lined. Former ABQ GOP State Rep. Rory Ogle gets in on the analysis action and opines that the Martinez 10 point Rasmussen lead is indeed a flat-lining:

Martinez again moves to a 10 point lead with likely voters polling 52% in the second straight survey this month. Denish draws 42%. Only 2% would like a different set of candidates and 4% are undecided.

Given that election day is only six days away I would say that Denish has both hit the ceiling and flat-lined as her number seems to be remaining steady...My gut feeling is unless there is some kind of really big misstep on the part of Susana this race is over given all of the early voting.

We remember gut feelings, Rory. We used to have at least one a day. Now we get ten polls a day.

When the Tuesday blog went to press we noted that Martinez was still going negative, despite her polling lead. She has mixed in a mostly positive closing spot with the negative.

ON THE TRAIL

Where the candidates were on Tuesday and election analysis on KOB-TV. And we talk about the polls with KRQE-TV.

LAS CRUCES BOUND

It will indeed be Las Cruces where Martinez makes what now appears will be a victory speech next Tuesday night. We blogged earlier that ABQ might be bypassed on the big night, the first time that has happened in modern memory. But Cruces is where the candidate feels most comfortable. We expect her to spend good deal of time there even after being elected. Her father and sister live there.

SUSANA AND CNN

The news network hooked up with Martinez Monday in Alamogordo. An excerpt:

Though Sarah Palin's endorsement helped Martinez lock up the nomination the candidate now seems to be seeking distance telling CNN, "You know Sarah Palin's endorsement was in the primary. We were pleased to have it. We were pleased to have everyone else's endorsement." Asked if she would support Palin for President she punts saying "you know I am not focused on Sarah Palin at this point.

Martinez does lunch with another GOP presidential hopeful today. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will be at the ABQ Country Club for a VIP lunch that is going for $2,000 a couple. The cheap seats are $500 a couple and $300 a person. One of the hosts is ubiquitous Republican businessman Sherman McCorkle who served on ABQ Mayor Berry's transition team and is a good bet to be tapped for a similar role should Martinez win Tuesday night.

Martinez will also hold a free ABQ rally with possible 2012 GOP Prez candidate Pawlenty. That will be this morning at 10:30 at Martinez campaign headquarters at 5500 San Mateo NE.

DI'S DAY

Denish continues her barnstorming. She'll be in Bernalillo and Santa Rosa today. She'll also have an event with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, Senator Tom Udall, Rep. Heinrich and NM Dem Party Chairman Javier Gonzales. They will be at Matteo's Restaurant, 6301 South Coors, from 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

Latest Rasmussen poll released Tuesday morning has Martinez over Denish 52 to 42.

Denish (New Mexican)
The days dwindle down to a precious few and the traditional stomach-churning, sleep-depriving anxiety and sense of foreboding is now afflicting even the most confident campaigns. It's especially so in this topsy-turvy, crazy year when no one is really sure just who will get out and vote and in what numbers. Add to the mix a dreary economic backdrop the likes of which modern day New Mexico has never seen and you have a perfect recipe for apprehension, one that not even Emeril Lagasse could cook up.

The apprehension burst into full view Monday as the final week began and the camp of Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish threw a poll on the table that contended she was only one point back of Republican Susana Martinez--46 to 45. The Martinez's camp quickly responded with a survey of their own taken in roughly the same time frame that showed Susana still leading Di big time--50 to 42.

But with all conservative votes seemingly accounted for there was a continued sense that the Dem candidate had nowhere to go but up, even if no one knew where she would bump into the ceiling.

The final or near-final round of Susana TV spots confirmed the disquiet. Both spots--TV and radio--are relentlessly negative. Here's the TV and here is the radio. Martinez has thrown in some positive stuff in recent weeks, but as the guts tighten in these last tension filled hours the campaign decided to go with what has worked for them--a strong anti-Richardson-Denish message. It was a sign that they do not feel that they have this deal sealed, said several Alligators, or else they would have moved to more positive stuff to position Martinez as Governor. Also, our analysts say that continued negative campaigning could keep voter turnout down, a plus for a Republican candidate. (Martinez has moved into rotation this positive closing ad along with the continued negative hits).

Not to say that they are not the front-running campaign. But it does say they do not feel they have room to flirt with a positive close right now. The Denish reading on the EKG may be troublesome, but she has not flat-lined. (Although with the release Tuesday morning of the Rasmussen survey with Denish trailing by ten--52--42-- the heartbeat is a murmur.)

MORE MARTINEZ VS. DENISH

From polling analysis, the undecided is almost all independent and Dem voters. The R's are in the bank. Denish is climbing uphill with a pack on her back too heavy for a mule. She has to landslide these undecideds. Likely? Maybe not. Inconceivable? No. Her campaign says strong debate performances and more populist messaging (e.g. predatory lending) has strengthened her.

Denish, of course, is still on the attack trying desperately to make up lost ground and win this thing by a margin of 2,000 votes or less. She finally came with the TV ad the media and pundits were waiting for. It shows Martinez being embraced by conservative Sarah Palin at a May ABQ rally for Martinez. It comes with the tag line "Your friends say a lot about you." The spot then shows Di's friend-- ex-President Clinton--at an Espanola rally saying that "Denish would be a great governor."

Contrasting Palin's support of Martinez with Clinton's of Denish is obviously aimed at deep-blue Dem voters who have not been jumping on the Di bandwagon.

Denish is now aiming her get-out-the-vote guns at those new base voters who came out for Obama in 2008. Not an easy task with a message that may have been too conservative all campaign long, but ammunition is running low for Di and the Dems.

HERRERA VS. DURAN

The dueling polling continued in that "round-and- round-she-goes-where-she stops-nobody-knows race" for Secretary of State. Republican Dianna Duran released a poll done by the same outfit that polls for Martinez showing her with a stunning 12 point lead--46 to 34--over incumbent Dem Secretary of State Mary Herrera. But Herrera's camp pointed out that the survey was done between Oct. 14 and 18 and they came with numbers of their own.

Veteran Dem pollster Harry Pavlides, working it for Herrrera, called the Duran poll, released by her campaign manager, Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair, "stale bread." He said his survey of over 400 likely voters taken over the weekend gives Herrera a lead in the ABQ and Northern congressional districts, enough to keep her ahead of Duran who will sweep the southern district. The Herrera camp did not release the full poll.

Still, that looks mighty close and Herrera is going to have to keep Duran at bay in big Bernalillo County and wrack up traditional big Dem margins up North to ensure the victory. Duran has gone up with $125,000 in TV. Herrera is also up, but with a smaller buy. However, she has been on radio for weeks which targets rural voters. There's still concern among Martinez supporters that pounding Herrera too hard could rile up the Democratic base and harm Martinez's Guv bid.

Herrera has been engulfed in controversy with ex-employees accusing her of wrongdoing. Not one major newspaper has endorsed her re-election. One of those employees, former elections head A.J. Salazar, took to KKOB-AM radio Monday to further knock Herrera, but he encountered resistance from Herrera supporters. It was another sign that Herrera is fighting tooth and nail to hang on to power.

Republican analyst Greg Payne says the Duran poll should be eyed skeptically. He wondered how the relatively unknown Alamogordo GOP state senator could be up 12 points in a down-ballot race normally dominated by Dems while Susana Martinez says she is up only eight points over Denish.

Still, the SOS race--all Democratic for 80 years--is seen as the GOP's best chance for a down-ballot upset. We think we will have a good handle on it shortly after 7 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM Election Night. That's when the early and absentee vote for Bernalillo County will be released. Duran will need to show muscle in those returns, or else the race will belong to the Dem Donkey.

YOU'RE STILL IN IT BRIAN

With operatives working to plant seeds of doubt on all conceivable scenarios, Brian Sanderoff and his ABQ Journal poll will again be closely scrutinized come Sunday. It will be the paper's final take on the Guv race, the three congressional contests and the attorney general face-off.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

The nerves are also frayed among our three freshman congressional representatives who are enduring their first re-election tests. ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich worked Monday to get the vote out in Bernalillo, appearing with Attorney General Gary King. His camp is confident but this is such a volatile year nothing can be taken for granted. Also on hand for the rally was Dem US Senator Tom Udall and Dem Light Guv candidate Brian Colon.

Republican Jon Barela has no quit in him, fighting over the weekend with retired US GOP Senator Pete Domenici by his side. Heather Wilson, who held the congressional seat before Heinrich, has also been seen on the trail with Barela. GOP analysts think the lower the turnout the better as Barela works furiously to pull off the upset. It may be the last chance the R's get to wrest the seat from Heinrich.

The southern race is seen as trending heavily to Steve Pearce over Rep. Harry Teague. Harry will play the Social Security card on Republican Pearce this week, but the urgency surrounding the contest has dissipated. Top state Dems now think this is Steve's to lose

Up north, Ben Ray Lujan's campaign is contending with pugnacious Republican Tom Mullins who is drawing cheers from R's for his debate performances against the congressman. There is no public polling in the heavy Dem district, but Lujan has had enough of Mullins roughing him up. His campaign manager says of Mullins: "This is the same guy who wanted to land mine the border" and is now trying to "hide his dangerous ideas." The counterattack, now also playing on TV, is seen as keeping Mullins in check in this crazy-quilt year when even the Spanish North is subject to zigging and zagging.

THE MAIL BAG

Reader Andrew Diversey says a recent blog butchered a quote from Susana Martinez and he wants to set the record straight:

Here is what you quote her as saying:

“It's sad. It's disappointing that anyone running for the top position of governor and lieutenant governor. I think the appropriate thing to do is divide people instead of uniting them. They are talking about me as a person instead of where I stand on the various policies...”

This is incorrect. She obviously did not say “I think” at the beginning of the second sentence since she is criticizing what the Democratic party candidates running for governor and lieutenant governor think.

If you listen carefully to her interview on YouTube, you will hear her saying the following:

“You know it’s sad; it’s disappointing that anyone who’s running for the top position of governor and lieutenant governor think that the appropriate thing to do is to divide people instead of uniting them. I don’t know what they intended by it, but it’s inappropriate.”

Thanks for catching that, Andrew.

And our recommendation that three of the four statewide bond issues be voted down drew this response from Billy Sparks, executive director for communication at the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center. He urged approval of Bond D for higher education, saying:

One project with unquestionable statewide significance is the renovation and expansion of decades-old Carrie Tingley Hospital. Services and clinics housed in the CTH facility include specialized orthopedics and musculoskeletal related clinics such as Spina Bifidia, Cerebral Palsy and an Orthopedic/Spine program.

The rehabilitative program includes a comprehensive speech, physical and occupational health services as well as multiple gym and therapy spaces designed to meet the special needs of complex pediatric patients. Multiple specialty clinics within the CTH facility are also designed to increase access to care for children with special challenges. ...Outreach programs throughout the state serve to increase access to children and families...Supporting the GO Bond ensures that these important services continue to be available for the growing communities throughout New Mexico....

PIT RULE CHALLENGE (cont.)

And our ongoing debate over the "Pit Rule," continues to draw comments. We've asked for definitive proof that the rule, designed to protect the environment from oil and gas drilling, has cost energy related jobs. Dana Hodges of Little Texas says her company is the proof. She picks up on this ABQ Journal article outlining how a company owned by Dem heavyweight and Journal villain Johnny Cope benefits from the rule.

I am an avid reader of your blog, live in SE New Mexico and own a small business that is oil & gas related. Prior to the pit rule change we employed 25 people, now we employee three. I don’t care what anyone else thinks outside of this area but the pit rule change did affect all of us in this area, except the few mentioned in this article.

The final frenzied week of Campaign 2010 begins with Democrats hopeful that they can drive up turnout enough to give Diane Denish a chance to pull ahead of Republican Susana Martinez by a nose. Denish seems to be closing the gap in this final stretch, but still trailing the Dona Ana County DA.

The sense of the race is that the negatives on Denish are done working. Democrats are coming home, but Denish may have let Martinez get too far ahead. Her campaign says the race is still within reach. The final Journal poll will be out Sunday. Denish could use some public polling in the next day or two that shows her closing. It would be a motivator for Dems who are seeing the race written off.

The chief weakness in the Martinez campaign has been their reluctance to tell the public more about her. They know she is a prosecutor and little else. The campaign rejected biographical spots in favor of attack ads. That could make some Dems and independents who don't live in the south more reluctant to cross over to the Republican as they take one last look before casting their ballots.

The chief Denish weakness has been messaging. She has too often sounded like an echo chamber for Martinez and the R's. Her campaign argued in an email missive that "the pundits" who believe this have their own agenda. They don't. They are just talking about why a Dem Guv nominee has been running so far behind in the public opinion polls.

In-person early voting numbers for Bernalillo County show Dems and R's pulling the same numbers in--about 14,000 each so far. That shows the higher enthusiasm for the GOP. They make up only 32 percent of the registered voters here and statewide.

Optimistic Dems are forecasting a loss of two or three state House seats. They now hold sway over the R's by 45 to 25. Optimistic R's are predicting a pick-up of five to seven House seats.

This reader e-mail passes for what is the conventional wisdom on the New Mexico Guv race:

Republican candidates for Governor don't win by double digits in NM unless a lot more is happening than I can see today. 1994 was also a bad year for Dems. They were badly divided and had a third party to its left to contend with, and Gary Johnson still won by (barely) less than 10%. Today the Dems are united, albeit tepidly, and the Green Party is no longer with us. Martinez will win, but the margin will be no more than eight points. Put me in the pool for 53.8%.

Johnson won in 1994, defeating Dem Bruce king 50 to 40 and Green Party candidate Roberto Mondragon garnering 10 percent of the vote.

LUJAN VS MULLINS

It's night and day when it comes to the points of view of Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Tom Mullins. They debated the points on KOAT Sunday afternoon.

Lujan started his TV late. Mullins came with negative TV. Lujan is now responding to those attacks. The race is too close for Democratic comfort, with Lujan expected to take it in the end. But Mullins has snuck up on Lujan despite early missteps like calling for land mines to be placed around the border. The Lujan negative is meant to put Mullins in his place---in the very low 40's.

Lujan wants to get this thing to at least 55% in the heavy Dem north come Election Night. If he doesn't, progressives who have never been his biggest fans could plot a primary run against him in 2012 which could prove to be a nuisance or a real threat. And maybe we would even see the 40 year old Mullins again.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

We're still closely watching this battle for the ABQ congressional seat as is the AP.

INK-STAINED AND ENDORSING

The ABQ Journal, as expected, came with its endorsement of Martinez Sunday. The Santa Fe New Mexican, also as expected, gave its nod to Denish.

The Journal's main concern is what they see as a culture of corruption. The New Mexican is more concerned with the state's budget crisis and human service needs.

The Journal also endorsed all three Republican candidates for the US House over the weekend. However, in giving the nod to Republican Jon Barela the paper failed to make an important distinction:

Campaign attacks insinuating (Barela) favors privatizing Social Security...are baloney.

But the Journal's own Washington correspondent, Michael Coleman, broke this news on Barela's Social Security position: