Friday, November 26, 2010Picking Over The Thanksgiving Leftovers Of La Politica: NM Movie Making, Hispanic Voting Lessons And Solano's Slip Our cherished New Mexico has always had a hold on the national imagination. That's why most observers can't imagine Governor-elect Susana Martinez seeking to completely eliminate the tax credit that attracts Hollywood to the Land of Enchantment. But the evidence is mounting that our state--and others--may be too generous in its determination to attract film makers. From Bloomberg:A (Michigan) agency found the price of the program -- which covers as much as 42 percent of local expenses -- exceeds the economic activity generated. Jobs created in 2009 cost the state about $193,000 each, the agency estimated. Incentives for Hollywood have been scaled back in Wisconsin, capped in Rhode Island, suspended in New Jersey, Iowa and Kansas and scheduled to expire in Arizona. New Mexico offers filmmakers a generous 25% tax credit for all expenses associated with making a film here. Over the past three years 118 film and TV productions were paid $181 million through the program. But if our experience at recent speaking engagements is any indication, the program has support. We were questioned about it at two events where we reviewed the 2010 election. Martinez is indicating she could support a cap on the amount of money handed out as a tax credit. Ending the incentive entirely, as some propose, would mean all those 10 year old kids around the USA playing cowboy might not hear as much about New Mexico as they once did. The film incentives are not only about making sure the state gets a good immediate economic return, but keeps a grip on the nation's imagination. That is what continually fuels an untold number of visits to this state of unparalleled beauty and mystery. HISPANIC LESSONS Lessons from the 2010 voting when it comes to the Hispanic vote:. The New York Times says in an editorial:
As the Hispanic electorate continues to grow faster than the overall population in the years ahead, the 2010 election should be a useful lesson. Anti-immigrant demagoguery occasionally works, as it did in a number of Republican victories in Arizona this year. But more often it will produce an angry reaction among a growing group of committed voters. By they way, exit poll estimates say Republican Susana Martinez pulled 38% of the New Mexico Hispanic vote. That's excellent for a GOP contender, but not a high-water mark. In 2004, it's estimated that Bush won 40% of the Hispanic vote. SOLANO SLIPS  Was there anyone not surprised about outgoing Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano being charged with embezzlement?Stating he is "like many Americans, caught up in financial crisis and facing foreclosure on his home, Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano on Wednesday owned up to stealing county property and selling items on eBay for personal profit. New Mexico State Police confirmed they have been investigating Solano for embezzlement for at least four months, and while criminal charges have not yet been filed, they are forthcoming. Solano said personal financial problems prompted his theft. The newspaper ran a sidebar that showed Solano's financial problems go back years, but we never hard about them when he was a candidate. Solano made a brief run for the 2010 Dem lieutenant governor nomination. He still has a Web site up where he talks about being raised by a single mother in Santa Fe and using food stamps. This is the home of New Mexico politics. From Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan reporting. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, November 24, 2010Martinez Names Rep. Gardner Staff Chief, Plus: Susana's Inaugural; A No-Limit Game? And: Happy Thanksgiving: Our State's "Culinary Treasures" State Rep. Keith Gardner of Roswell will leave the Legislature to become chief of staff to Governor-elect Martinez. That announcement came late Wednesday along with the naming of other key staffers who will surround Martinez when she takes over the Guv's office at the Roundhouse on January 1.Others named include: Former GOP State Rep. Brian Moore as deputy chief of staff and legislative director; Ryan Cangiolosi, Martinez's campaign manager, was named as deputy chief of staff overseeing boards and commissions; Jessica Hernandez of the ABQ Rodey law firm becomes General Counsel and Matthew Stackpole, who was a deputy in Martinez's campaign, will be assistant counsel. Scott Darnell, a former communications director for the NM GOP, will now assume that role for Martinez. Matt Kennicott, who was head of campaign operations for Martinez and a former chief of staff for the House GOP caucus, becomes Director of Policy and Planning. The top of the team---Gardner and Moore--is heavy on legislative experience which the new Governor lacks and which will be of paramount importance as she grapples with a projected $450 million budget shortfall. Gardner leaving the House means a new House Minority Whip where the R's now have 33 members, the most in modern times. Martinez will name a replacement for Gardner. House R's will caucus to elect a new whip. This is also a highly political team with many of the appointees fresh from the campaign trail. It is also a conservative team. However, Gardner and Moore's relationship with legislative Democrats gives Martinez an opening to build her own relationships with the majority party. Also worth a mention is that only one of the seven appointees is female, a break from Martinez's pattern as Dona Ana County district attorney. Also, only one Hispanic and that will be noticed. Overall, this group will likely be seen in Santa Fe as having the depth and experience to run the day-to-day operations of state government. Their challenge may be to keep deeply ingrained partisan instincts in check. BUDGET WOES No Thanksgiving present from Guv-elect Susana to those politicos eyeing use of the state's huge permanent funds to help solve the budget crisis. She told TV news she is not softening her position: Now the easy answer can't be going to the permanent fund and it can't be raising taxes either. We have to cut back on spending. State government spending, we over did it. This administration overspent like it was their own money... Well, it wasn't only the administration that overspent. Didn't the vast majority of the 112 legislators--including Republicans--approve all those past budgets stuffed like a holiday turkey? They sure did. And maybe they cut taxes on the wealthy too much? As for the permanent funds, there is a little wiggle room for the new Guv. A bill could be sent to her desk that would issue bonds against fund income. That would amount to a promise to pay the money back. Would she consider that a raid? The growth of the Medicaid health program for low-income New Mexicans is far and away the biggest contributor to the projected state budget shortfall of over $450 million for the budget year that begins next July 1. Here's a strong piece on the problem. THE LAND MINES We sense that Susana is about to enter territory laced with mine fields as she grapples with balancing the state budget and possibly reneging on her campaign promise to not cut the public school budget. The APS Board of Education and School Superintendent are being very aggressive in pressuring Martinez to live up to her pledge. They seem emboldened and believe they have the public on their side. Martinez has started to talk about cutting school administration but protecting classroom dollars. But our Senior Alligators point out she left no room to maneuver on the issue during the campaign. Now she is stuck with the no cuts pledge that had great appeal to centrist voters who would not ordinarily vote Republican. Martinez is feigning outrage over new projections showing the budget gap growing, again claiming that Big Bill cooked the books. But a blind man could have seen this coming as the Great Recession drags on and on. The Governor-to-be appears only days away from claiming that "deception" will cause her to break her "no cuts to the schools" promise. But that is not going to wash with a large segment of the electorate who are now going to perceive themselves as being deceived--not by budget shortfall estimates--but by the candidate they placed their trust in. Martinez will at least take some shrapnel from those land mines she is about to step on. Don't say we didn't tell you. SUSANA'S LIMITS You would think it would be a no-brainer that Governor-elect Martinez would voluntarily limit the amount any individual or business could donate to her inaugural fund-raising committee. After all, she ran the most vociferous anti-corruption campaign in modern state history. But there is still no word from the Martinez camp in the aftermath of an AP report on whether she will apply new campaign finance limits to her inaugural. Those limits--$5,000 per campaign--are somewhat ambiguous when it comes to applying them to the inauguration. Martinez says she will disclose who gives money to the inaugural committee, but that's the least to be expected. Big Bill disclosed every single dollar he received too, but that didn't stop pay-to-play. It was the huge amounts donated to his governor and presidential campaigns that caused the trouble. The hesitation by Susana over voluntarily and enthusiastically applying the limits for her inauguration makes the state wonder if the months-long berating of Big Bill over "pay-to-play" was really about "bold change" or merely a campaign tactic. Stay tuned. HOLD ON.... Because they could go lower: (AP) - A Realtors group says home sales in New Mexico dropped by 7 percent in October from a month earlier. The median price of homes sold also dropped by nearly 3 percent from September to $175,000. The sales and price figures were released by the Realtors Association of New Mexico. DIG IN  This being that week of the year, we present from the state tourism department New Mexico's culinary treasures--all of them restaurants that have been operating for over 40 years.Happy Thanksgiving from the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, November 23, 2010Cracks In The R Ranks: Not All Favor House Coalition, Plus: More Insider Info On Big Budget Gap, And: The Readers Write Cracks have begun to appear among state House Republicans that could make it even more difficult for them to form a coalition with a handful of Dems and take over the chamber. That's the word from our Alligators and insiders who now count three Republicans among the 33 House R's who are not friendly toward supporting Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes for House Speaker--or any other Democrat--to dethrone longtime Speaker Ben Lujan. With 37 Dems and 33 R's, it would take all the R's plus three Dems to form a GOP led coalition in the 70 member House. Take away the three R's and you need six Democrats to do the trick. Not likely. At present, Cervantes has the support of Reps. Nunez, Mary Helen Garcia, Irwin and himself. If all the R's came to his side, that would give him 37 votes--one more than needed to become Speaker. If he pursued a coalition without picking up more Dem support, he could only afford to lose one Republican, but no more than that. We're told the Republicans reluctant to join any coalition have several concerns. One is their hometown constituents and whether they would want them voting for a Democratic Speaker. Another is strategic and one we've previously mentioned. This 60 day legislative session starting January 18 is going to be about cutting budgets and taking services away from the public. Not all Republicans want ownership of that agenda and the resulting pain. If the session doesn't go well, the majority party would be positioned to take the hit. R's in favor of a coalition say take the power while you can. Rarely is the minority party ever in a position in the state House to exercise meaningful influence. This is one those rare occasions. Over the weekend House Dems again nominated Lujan to be their speaker. He overcame a challenge from Rep. Cervantes. Another scenario floated here Monday--that Lujan step aside and pass the Speaker baton to Rep. Ken Martinez--is one of many that will keep the political class playing the guessing game throughout the holiday season and then some. IT'S A TECHNICAL THING  We've been blogging that the $452 million projected shortfall for the state budget year that begins next July 1 is not the final one. There is still another budget estimate to come next month that could--just could--mean the final number is lower or higher. But the final estimate does not come from the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) alone as we have indicated. Here's a full technical explanation from a Santa Fe Alligator we bring to you because this issue is so dominant--and important:What happens in early December is the final Consensus Revenue Projections before the legislative session. Those projections are developed by career economists from the Executive and the Legislature. The numbers that the LFC has been reporting, and more recently, DFA (representing the Administration) showed drastic differences in terms of budget assumptions--namely the growth of Medicaid and retirement contributions. Despite those differences, both the Executive and Legislature are working from the same revenue projections. But in a few weeks, new joint revenue projections will be developed. One of the flies in the ointment in past state budget projections has been the assumed rate of economic growth. The Santa Fe high altitude crowd keeps projecting it to be stronger than it turns out as this merciless recession continues. Now there is this projected recession-inspired explosion in Medicaid growth. There are political implications in the size of the projected shortfall. If it were in the $300 million range much less drastic action would be required to resolve it than if it stays around $452 million. How so? For one thing, a $450 million shortfall could propel that controversial proposal from Senate Majority Leader to issue bonds backed by the state's $3.5 billion Severance Tax Permanent Fund to resolve some of the shortfall. But a hole in the $300 to $350 million range might keep demands at bay that the severance fund be put in play. Clearly, the stakes don't get much higher when it comes to the final revenue forecast before solons gather in Santa Fe January 18. (The severance fund, derived from royalties on natural resources, and the Land Grant Permanent Fund are two of the state's permanent savings accounts that currently total about $13 billion.) TURNER'S TAKE  ABQ PR executive and 2010 GOP Guv candidate Doug Turner grabbed some of the insiders by the collar when he came with an op-ed piece that had the Republican actually supporting the use of the severance fund to help plug the budget hole---but only under certain circumstances.State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez was first to float a trial balloon on bonding the severance fund to resolve the money woes until the state economy recovers. He recently said that the idea will definitely be back in play in the 60 day legislative session starting in January. Sanchez's "raid" would only require majority approval from the House and Senate. Turner says Republican legislators would not vote to bond money headed to the severance fund unless they had voter approval. To that end, he suggests a Constitutional Amendment be placed on on the ballot at a special election in 2011 asking voters to give lawmakers permission to get into the huge savings account. Governor-elect Martinez has expressed wariness of tapping any of the state's legacy savings accounts. However, issuing bonds against severance tax money is current policy for capital projects. The fund has also been used to finance targeted investments in private ventures, but many have not done well. Since Martinez has pledged no tax increases of any kind in her four year term, bonding against the severance fund as a short-term bail-out--either now or down the road--could look tempting to her if state finances don't soon take a turn for the better. THE READERS WRITE  From Jim McClure in ABQ: One of the advantages of living here is the comic relief of New Mexico government. I'm still laughing over the decision of the transportation department to name the I-40/Coors interchange after Gov. Richardson. In my home state of Illinois, where former governors wind up making license plates, they generally do not name anything for a politician until he is deceased and beyond the reach of the law. This saves embarrassment later. Since indictment appears to be an occupational hazard for our politicians, this would be a prudent policy for New Mexico. You'd think they would have learned something when the Hispanic Cultural Center had to remove Manny Aragon's name from a building From Jeff Potter in Alameda: I had to comment on the mention in the blog about naming an interchange after departing Guv Richardson. Having retired from UNM 4-plus years ago, I was astounded by all the buildings named after Senator Domenici and his wife or Governor Richardson and his wife just on the Health Sciences side of campus! What about former Guv Bruce King? Are there any state buildings named after Bruce and/or Alice? It seems to me a big disparity, especially since they both passed away in the last two years and did so much over three decades to advance the quality of all New Mexicans. Besides, Bruce was known for mending political fences, not widening them. The late Bruce King had the main building of NM Farm and Ranch Museum in Las Cruces named in his honor. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, November 22, 2010Santa Fe Power Vacuum: Lujan Can't Seal Deal; What Now? Analysis & Perspective On The Big Story, Plus: Jeff's Pressure & Susana's Honeymoon Power is slowly emptying out of the speakership of Ben Lujan. The rebellion against him at the state House Democratic caucus Saturday means even if he manages to retain his title--as a majority of the caucus voted--he will wield the gavel limply and walk the Capitol a wounded lame-duck.The inability of Lujan to quash the mutiny by four rebels sent the smell of blood slowly wafting up to the Fourth Floor of the Roundhouse where a new Republican Governor will soon be ensconced. Life is so easy when you play it in the rear view mirror. If only the Speaker had signaled his intentions to conclude his storied career shortly after his son, Ben Ray, was elected to the US House in 2008. Or if not then, shortly after his own flock told him the end was near when he survived the June primary by a mere 80 votes. If only clarity had been his guide, this piecemeal dethroning of the Speaker could have been averted. He would ride off into the sunset with legendary status. Now this leading liberal light of his or any other generation faces a frosty chamber with atrophied muscles and where only three Democrats need to join with the Republicans to adopt a conservative agenda. THE WAITING GAME Martinez  And what of the prince who waits in the wings as the king fights to push back the hands of time?House Majority Leader Kenny Martinez, the son of a former House speaker, led an abortive coup against Lujan in December of '06. Since then he has been content to wait his turn. But what about taking the reins of power now, while the state rests at an historic intersection with an ascendant conservatism threatening to redefine what government can and should do? A new and well-fortified face--a liberal face--in the Legislature's preeminent power position would not derail the conservative express, but certainly slow it. Isn't that what most New Mexico Democrats want? Martinez has remained quiet, except to pass word that he would not support any coalition with the 33 House Republicans. His good friend and this year's rebellion leader, Rep. Joe Cervantes, still toys with the idea of a coalition with the R's after losing to Lujan in caucus. But his heart does not seem entirely in it. What he may really want is for Martinez to take the chair, just as he desired in 2006 when he served as chief lieutenant for the coup. House Democrats will caucus more between now and the opening day of the Legislature. To avoid a complete GOP takeover of the government--a conservative coalition already rules the Senate--they will either have to firm up their support for Lujan and hope for the best or force Rep. Martinez to step forward and jar the Republicans and the new Governor. Speaker Lujan will no doubt preside with dignity if on January 18 he is again chosen to lead. But the power vacuum left in the wake of the Nov 2. election and Saturday's raucous caucus strengthens those who seek either a formal or informal conservative coalition. That diminishes the speaker--and the Democratic Party--more than even the Republicans could hope for. JEFF'S JOB Sen. Bingaman  There is more pressure than usual on Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman to make it clear that he is seeking re-election. A minor feeding frenzy is starting to form among Republicans who are hungry for more power after capturing the US House. Politico came with a report that Bingaman, first elected in '82, was still considering whether to run again. But that's contrary to what top staffers for Bingaman have been saying for months. They report he is all in. The Senator does have over $5oo,000 cash on hand and no one in the know seems to doubt that Bingaman is going for another six years. He is expected to make a formal announcement ion March that he will seek a sixth term. Bingaman, 67, has always been low-key in announcing his political plans, but in this environment the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will find that tongues will wag about his intentions until he formally and definitively announces that he is going. Former ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson is chairing Governor-elect Martinez's transition committee and is clearly using that position to generate headlines for herself. It could be a prelude to a 2012 Senate run. She lost the GOP US Senate nomination in 2008 to Steve Pearce. Should she run, we see a likely challenge to Wilson coming again from the right-wing of the party, similar to the one launched by Pearce who denied her the nomination. Pearce will not be that challenger to Wilson. He is happy to have his US House seat back. A September 25-26 poll by PPP has Bingaman scoring a 50% percent approval rating. One point lower and Bingaman would be considered vulnerable. However, the poll was taken in the middle of the election campaign when all incumbents were scoring poorly and Republicans were on the rise. That PPP survey also reported that Bingaman's approval was the third highest among the 18 senators expected to seek re-election in 2012. One other note. Jeff spent $3.4 million to defend his seat against a tepid challenge in '06. If a serious challenge emerges, this one could easily cost him double that amount. THE HONEYMOON  They say a politician peaks in popularity the day they take office and it's downhill from there. Perhaps. In Governor-elect Martinez's case she is basking in a honeymoon glow well before she takes office Jan 1.Idle chatter in this season between campaigns has Susana leaving the Governor's office and becoming USA Attorney General if a Republican is elected to the White House in 2012. Others even see her as a GOP 2012 vice-presidential contender. And the Republican Governors Association has put some flowers at her feet, naming her to its leadership committee. Of course, before Susana let's all of this go to her head, she might want to do some homework. For example, on the Dream Act.
There is a deep hunger for new faces and new leadership in these economically perilous times. Every administration starts out with high hopes from the public, but this one especially so as forces internally and externally tear at the very fabric of New Mexico and the nation. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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