Wilson & Arnold-Jones
Heather Wilson tamped down a threat from her party's right wing Saturday, scoring 83% of the delegate support at the Saturday GOP state preprimary convention. Greg Sowards came up short of the key 20% mark needed to win an official spot on the June primary ballot, coming with just 17% delegate support. He vows to stay in the race but will have to submit petition signatures to get on the June ballot.

About 800 statewide delegates attended the convention at the ABQ Crowne Plaza.

The Wilson win came after negative campaigning broke out between the two. The victory could soften the pressure the former ABQ GOP congresswoman feels from her party's right so she can begin positioning herself for the face-off with her general election opponent--either US Rep Martin Heinrich or State Auditor Hector Balderas.

But a key question remains. At the end of the year, Sowards had over $600,000 cash in his bank account--most of it money he donated to himself. Will he go ahead and spend a large chunk of it on negative ads against Wilson and try to keep her tacking to the right? That an unknown like Sowards could capture as much as 17% does speak to the rightward drift of the party and Wilson's continued problems with it.

The bottom line is that Wilson is headed for a healthy primary victory, but whether her political bloodstream will be infected by Sowards (to the delight of the Dems), is a question still wafting about in the March air.

JAZZED UP JANICE

When you boast you are going to win big, you better. And Janice Arnold-Jones did both. The ABQ GOP US House candidate blew the doors off at the preprimary, capturing over 62% of the delegate support to about 34% for ABQ City Councilor Dan Lewis and about 4% for retired Army Seargent Gary Smith. She had promised she would.

This sets the stage for Arnold-Jones, a former state representative and 2010 GOP Guv candidate, to take over the front-runner position in this contest. But she will need money to match this performance. At the end of the year she had only $20,000 in cash compared to $102,000 for Lewis and $88,000 for Smith who has said he will stay in the race and get petition signatures to be on the June primary ballot, but it is not certain.

The winner of the June 5 primary will take on one of three Democratic candidates competing for their party's nomination. The seat is being vacated by Rep. Martin Heinrich who is running for the open US Senate seat.

There is a sense that the party is moving it over to Arnold-Jones but none of these candidates has been very muscular--until now. A 62% showing is especially relevant for Arnold-Jones because she has had such a hard time taming her party's right wing. Her refusal to endorse the death penalty is one big reason, with her overall political moderation being the primary one.

The next money reports come out in mid-April. We will know then if party money is going to follow Janice out of this convention. If it does, Lewis could find himself fighting from the corner.

SENIOR ALLIGATOR ANALYSIS

A number of our Senior Alligators say the burst of strength by Arnold-Jones is a calculated play by the GOP. They think Janice's presence on the fall ticket will help Wilson in her Senate race in moderate ABQ and that she also matches up well against liberal Dem Eric Griego, now the leading contender for the Dem nomination. They think a Wilson-Arnold-Jones combo makes it harder for the Dems to attack them on women's issues. They see Wilson's forces pushing Arnold-Jones ahead. Also, Dan Lewis has not been on friendly terms with GOP ABQ Mayor RJ Berry and 2010 GOP ABQ US House nominee Jon Barela, additional factors favoring Arnold-Jones. They say the fight now is going to be over who is the "true conservative" with Lewis, a pastor, noting his more socially conservative views as he works to contain Janice's convention boomlet.

THE NORTH

In the preprimary contest for the northern congressional seat Rick Newton bested Jeff Byrd 65% to 35%. The winner of the June 5 primary will take on Dem US Congressman Ben Ray Lujan.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

State tourism efforts to attract out-of-state visitors have been less than aggressive--to put it mildly--but there's an example for the Santa Fe bureaucrats right in their own backyard of how to get the tourists back here and emptying their wallets in the process:

About 330,000 Texans in the more affluent parts of Dallas and Houston will get a 24-page tabloid promoting Santa Fe as a tourist destination in their newspaper on Easter Sunday, April 8. RSVP Santa Fe is a joint production of the city of Santa Fe and the Santa Fe New Mexican aimed at advertising the city's hotels, restaurants, art galleries and special events to its biggest tourism market. The total press run of 350,000 full-color supplements is the largest in the history of The New Mexican and the first time the newspaper has partnered with city government on such a project. 

More tourism means more employment and dollars for businesses already established in the state. They don't need complicated tax breaks or other incentives. They just need customers. Governor Martinez and Tourism Secretary Jacoboson could easily get an increase in the state promotional budget from the Legislature, but they aren't asking.

The tourism situation in Santa Fe is dire, with all kinds of businesses closing or suffering from weak bottom lines because of the marked decline in visitors during this ongoing bear market. If the state waits too long to move, the decline in tourism could become permanent. What's that old saying? "Out of sight, out of mind."

LIGHT SKINNED HISPANICS

Soon after we posted the above the story over a casting call for "light skinned Hispanics" to appear in state tourism TV spots went viral on the Net:  

First, the Tourism Department touched some local nerves by hiring a Texas firm to produce its new branding campaign. That firm chose a California producer rather than someone in New Mexico's film industry to shoot the spot. And on Friday, traditional and social media was abuzz over the ad's "real people" casting notice, which called for Caucasian or "light-skinned" Hispanics to star in the spot.

WILSON VS. SOWARDS

The race for the GOP Senate nod goes on the national stage as state R's gear up for their Saturday preprimary convention in ABQ:

Saturday's pre-primary state Republican convention is former Rep. Heather Wilson's next big test in the New Mexico Senate race. Wilson, who has run a steady campaign so far, received some good news last month when the struggling campaign of GOP Lt. Gov. John Sanchez folded. She received some even better news on Thursday when Sanchez endorsed her.

But the timing of Sanchez's endorsement is no coincidence. Wilson's contending with longshot conservative Greg Sowards in what has been a nasty back-and-forth in the run-up to the convention. She's hoping to unite enough support behind her campaign at the meeting to render Sowards a non-factor...

Will Sowards get the 20% of delegate support that he needs to win an official spot on the June 5 primary ballot? Predictions are all over the map.

THE SANTA FE ZEITGEIST

In her latest dispatch syndicated columnist Sherry Robinson pretty much nails the current political zeitgeist in Santa F:

The governor’s dukes-up, in-your-face style and her pointed comments make good sound bites for a political ad, but they also invite scrutiny, and the scrutiny is rarely flattering. And they antagonize the Legislature and pretty much guarantee that she’s not going to get much accomplished.
 
There’s an old saying that you can’t shake hands with your fist clenched. The governor, halfway through her term, still hasn’t unclenched her fist.

And that's what you get when the political consultants are allowed to run not just the campaign--but also the government.  Don't say we (and Sherry) didn't tell you.

Along those lines, why is the Guv wasting her time poking the legislators over their modest pension plan? (They get about a $1000 a year for each year of service. It costs taxpayers about $2.4 million  a year lawmakers get no salaries). Martinez says she supports a constitutional amendment that would ask voters to kill the program. But it's not going to happen because for obvious reasons the Legislature will not approve sending such an amendment to voters.

How about if the Governor negotiated with the Legislature to further increase the amount they must contribute to finance the pension program thus saving taxpayers some expense? Well, that would not make for a headline showing the Guv standing up to the big, bad Legislature,

Here's the difference. When you are engaged in the real act of governing, the headline reads: "Guv and Legislature Enact Law Increasing Lawmakers' Contributions To Their Pension Plan." When the political consultants on the "Fifth Floor" are writing the script you get the one that recently ran: "Governor Wants Ban On Pensions for Legislators."

What great potential there is for this governorship. How sad to see it pinned down in the name of punitiveness and the popularity polls.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Thanks for checking in here. Reporting this week from southern Colorado and Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)   
 
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The dramatic shift to the right in the nominating wing of the New Mexican Republican Party is causing a migraine for GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson. Her allies are out managing expectations and predicting that it is very possible that Greg Sowards--her gadfly opponent for the nomination who mauls Heather for being too moderate--will manage to win 20% of the delegate support at Saturday's preprimary convention. If he does, he gets an official spot on the June 5 primary ballot and a boost in how his candidacy is viewed. Wilson is still positioned to win this race in a walk, but if Sowards decides to spend most of the $600,000 he has banked on attack ads, it could weaken her for the fall face-off with her Dem rival.

Sowards is working the 805 convention delegates hard. My insiders report he has sent them at least four mailings hammering Wilson and has also been on the phones seeking delegate backing. He needs about 160 delegates to get to the magic 20%. If he does, it will be conservative southern New Mexico where most of  the votes come from. It was there that Wilson had major trouble when she lost the GOP US Senate nomination to Rep. Steve Pearce in 2008.

Sowards is a Las Cruces day care center owner who made a previous run for the US House, largely banking his own campaign as he is this time around. He spent over $200,000 on that run, say insiders.

Even if he doesn't reach the 20% mark Saturday, Sowards says he will collect the extra petition signatures required to get a place on the ballot. So the issue isn't whether Sowards, 62, is going to be around. The question is how much of that 600 Grand is he going to spend attacking Wilson on TV. All of it? Or is the big bank account a bluff? Sowards had campaign turnover early and has not been writing big checks. My insiders who have checked the candidate asset statements filed with the US Senate clerk and not available on the Internet, say he appears to be worth a couple of million dollars. That's a surprise to some observers who point out that most of the $600,000 he has banked comes from his own cash reserves and apparently represent a high percentage of his overall net worth.

As for Wilson, she has released a poll showing her trouncing Sowards by over 70 points, has agreed to debate him and has also answered his attacks by faulting Sowards for accepting federal subsides for the chain of day care centers he owns and upon which his fortune is based. Why? Because bizarre things can happen in the GOP. Radical R's have managed to snag party nominations in major races in recent cycles, perhaps most notably Sharron Angle and the Nevada experience. Sowards may not have that kind of spark, but the fear that his candidacy could spontaneously combust keeps Wilson pushing back.

HITTING HEATHER

Sowards is ripping Wilson for supporting the bank bailout and for having a questionable pro-life record. And that's just the start. He posted on his web site a long litany of complaints against the five-term former ABQ congresswoman who in any other era would be deemed a solid conservative, but not in this one when a large segment of the GOP teeters precariously on the cliff.

When Lt. Governor John Sanchez dropped his challenge to Wilson it spared her from having to move too far to the right and thus endanger her general election chances in moderate New Mexico. Sowards does not have the stroke of Sanchez and Wilson is holding her "moderate" ground--so far. She got a break with the news backdrop, seizing on the cuts in federal spending to Los Alamos National Labs and the harm they will do to the northern New Mexico economy. Her military background and national security expertise give her easy entree and she is holding two town hall meetings on the cuts--one in Los Alamos and one in Rio Arriba County. Rio Arriba is interesting. It is one of the most Democratic counties anywhere, but many businesses there depend on that Los Alamos money. Could it offer Wilson and the R's an opportunity to make a few inroads?

A FAR-RIGHT FANTASY

The far-right of the GOP has gone so far off the farm that Wilson's critique of federal spending cuts to Los Alamos or possible future cuts to ABQ'S Sandia National Labs is being questioned. They want just about all government cut, no matter the economic or national security impact. They've been aided and abetted--somewhat astonishingly--even in the halls of academe.

A leading economist at the University of New Mexico Bureau of Business Research recently questioned the merits of all the Federal funding we receive. "If the federal government is so good, why are we so poor?" She asked. That is pretty jaw-dropping stuff. The obvious answer is that the thousands of people employed by the federal government and its thousands of private contractors here are anything but poor. Neither are our citizens who work at businesses that employ them because they get federal funds. Whew, someone call new UNM President Robert Frank. Looks like we need some refresher courses at the UNM biz bureau.

Billions of dollars in economic activity is not about to burst forth from a fantasized free-enterprise Nirvana that is envisioned by those who just don't seem to understand the genesis of the modern economy here. Maybe we can get to that promised land someday, but not by sending the state into an economic dark age brought about by an emotional disdain for anything government related.

Like the general public, Wilson gets this, but has to tip-toe among the radical right and carefully explain it until after the June primary. Her current conundrum is illustrated by this NM Dem Party attack:

Wilson, who spends half her time demanding that government spend less money and the other half complaining when her Party’s cuts hit New Mexico, was also shamefully silent in her defense of Los Alamos National Labs when Paul Ryan proposed a budget that slashed its funding by 17 percent, an even steeper cut than LANL faces now. She was asked time and time again, and given every opportunity to take a stand for the Labs when the Representative from Wisconsin was trying to shut down almost 20% of their funding – but she refused to stand against the popular view within her own Party.

She will be hearing a lot more of that after June 5, but for now Sowards and his followers are armed with pitch forks. While they may seem to be a far away threat, Wilson will take it seriously. Who wants to feel a sharp tong in the back?

DAN, JANICE AND GARY

The GOP preprimary delegates gathered at ABQ's Crowne Plaza Hotel will also vote Saturday in that three way battle for the ABQ Congressional seat. Former State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones put out an early boast that she will secure over half of the delegates. She apparently wanted to build some fund-raising momentum as her coffers at last count were barely registering $20,000. But by making that prediction, she has to perform. ABQ City Councilor Dan Lewis is her most potent rival at the convention. He has had better fund-raising luck than Janice, but not by much. He had less than $100,000 cash on hand in the recent count. The third contender--retired Army Seargent Gary Smith--a political newcomer--has been working the phones hunting for delegates, but the 20% mark appears elusive. His team says he is fine with having to get extra petition signatures to make the June ballot. That makes it much easier for Janice to reach her self-promoted majority of over 50%.

Lewis has not seized the bull by the horns. Arnold-Jones is well-liked by what's left of the more moderate wing of the party, but is loathed by the hard right. Enthusiasm for each of them is low. Smith has an opening to be an alternative, but it will take major money and a message that moves the faithful. (Lewis is coming with a hit mail piece on Janice as he works to shore up support before the preprimary).

National R's have backed off of this race some, seeing the ABQ seat as more and more blue going forward. They will wait for the dust to settle and see who emerges. If polling shows some possibilities, they will come with the money. Against that backdrop, the Democratic nomination for the state's first congressional district is a lot more valuable than the one the R's will begin to settle this weekend. 

GO LOBOS (AGGIES, TOO)

We wrote in jest about the mayor of ABQ urging everyone to root not only for the UNM Lobos in today's big NCAA games, but also the New Mexico State Aggies who also won a bid to the big dance. We joked that the ABQ Mayor should stick to the Lobos. Not surprisingly, a number of readers did not think it was a joke and chastised us. But reader and Aggie fan Angelique Jaramillo put it all in perspective:

Hey Joe. We Nuevo Mexicano's should all be proud that both of our fine state universities are playing in the NCAA. Lobo or Aggie, NM is playing with the best, for the best. Gotta tell ya tho, Lobos drew a sweet bracket and hopefully will make it to the Sweet 16 (even us Aggies will be pullin' for them). Hey, where is your reverence for the Aggies? Deep down, the Guv will be rooting for the Aggies--from her home town!

First, Angelique Jaramillo, congrats on having a great name. It sings. Second, we will make sure to root for both the Lobos and Aggies today. As for Susana, she's for whatever team the state Senate is against.

RESTAURANT ROW

We mentioned a few of our restaurant visits this week to which Mary Clark of ABQ responds:

As a regular reader of your column, I had to give you a shout out to "The Cube" a BBQ restaurant just east of The Copper Lounge. Try it, you'll like it. Thanks for keeping it real.

We have tried The Cube, Mary, and we enjoyed the barbecue. As for keeping it real, that's a house speciality around here.

Reader Jeff Buckles comes with some reaction to our restaurant report on Duran's Pharmacy near downtown ABQ that is ripe with La Politica of long ago:

Joe: I’ve been to Duran's off and on since in the mid-80s (I believe the original pharmacy/restaurant started across the street in the 40's), and they have always had a tendency to serve up tepid chile. On the positive side, the beans have always been excellent and the tortillas are still the best I know of (outside of homemade). I started going there in the mid-80s because I was working as a law clerk for Big Ed Mechem, who served as New Mexico's Governor, as a US senator and federal judge. The law clerks went to lunch with him every day, and he really liked going to Duran’s because he would run into old cronies there, some of whom would say, “Hello Judge,” some “Hello Governor,” and even the occasional “Hello Senator.” Anyway, that’s what Duran’s is to me---my two years with one of the grandest New Mexicans who ever lived.

Thanks much for that, Jeff. Here's more info on Ed Mechem. We really enjoy bringing the history of the state alive....that's why they call this....The home of New Mexico Politics...

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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So when will the "super PAC's" descend on New Mexico and plaster the airwaves with hundreds of thousands of dollars in ads financed by God knows who? Well, we don't know exactly when but we do know they are coming. Here's the first sighting:

Suzanne Terrell, co-chair of ShePAC, a new super PAC supporting Republican women: "I think there is a good chance that we'll elect four new women [to the Senate]. I think that we will be electing new women to the House."

Those Senate hopefuls, Terrell says, are Linda Lingle of Hawaii, Heather Wilson from New Mexico, Sarah Steelman from Missouri and Deb Fischer from Nebraska.

If ShePAC meets its $25 million fundraising target, it could play a major role in influencing many of these elections.

A WaPo poll shows seven in ten voters would like to see the super PAC's made illegal. Sign us up for that.

New Mexico is especially fertile ground for the super PAC's or any other kind of "independent" TV expenditure. You can reach just about the entire state by buying the relatively cheap ABQ TV market. No doubt that will be the case for the presidential contest as well as outside groups trying to influence our Senate contest. A big problem with the super PAC's? You can't figure out who exactly finances them.

So get ready, the super PAC's are coming, The good news? There's still time to hide under your bed.

MARTY'S PAC PROBLEM

It isn't a "super PAC" but it is having an impact on the Dem race for the ABQ congressional seat. Veteran political analyst Stu Rothenberg, writing in Roll Call, brings us up to date:

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has declared war on former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chávez. Chávez...emphasizing his approach as a problem-solver rather than an ideologue, presents himself as someone who has tried to work with the business community whenever possible. The former mayor has been endorsed by President Bill Clinton, actor Robert Redford and women’s equality advocate Lilly Ledbetter..Chávez’s relative moderation and decisions to eschew divisive rhetoric has the PCCC apoplectic, calling the former mayor a closet Republican. Griego...ran unsuccessfully against Chávez in the 2005 Albuquerque mayor’s race...Griego was one of seven liberal Democratic House candidates who delivered “We Stand with the 99 percent” petitions to the Speaker in October.

A PARTY LIKE MARTY?

ABQ gay rights activist Jesse Lopez, on hand for Saturday's Democratic Party preprimary convention, says the party has room for improvement:

I was attending my first party convention..and walked into a room full of familiar faces, many I met while trying to get domestic partnership and anti-bullying laws passed. ABQ congressional candidate Marty Chavez invited the GLBT community to stand with him. Without hesitation I said "yes." As Mayor, he was one of the first politicians in New Mexico to issue an executive order banning discrimination based on sexual orientation...His policies made it easier for me as a teen to be gay...Marty has always been on the right side of history. When he spoke, I raised my rainbow flag...

As I stood holding my flag, I looked around and realized the Democratic Party has to embrace the GLBT community much more. For example, many Democrats will not support marriage equality much less a domestic partnership bill...The GLBT community has a strong voice. It's time we hold all of our elected officials accountable including our own...The time has come to ask my fellow Democrats: When history looks at your vote, will it be the wrong side?

MAD MARTY

It was a pretty crummy day all around for Marty at the Saturday preprimary. Not only did Eric Griego beat him out for first place in the delegate race, he complains that he was also anonymousy smeared. He indicates the attacks came from progressives based out of state:

This weekend’s Democratic Convention was marred by illegal, anonymous and false attacks on my campaign. As delegates and their families arrived, they were greeted with Karl Rove-style smear fliers...My opponents’ claims of championing campaign finance reform ring hollow when their own supporters are making illegal attacks while they look the other way. These underhanded GOP tactics used by my opponents third-party allies to smear my candidacy are shameful.  That’s exactly why I issued the Elizabeth Warren Challenge--because no one should be able to come to New Mexico and buy our elections. Both Eric Griego and Michelle Lujan Grisham refused to even discuss eliminating unchecked anonymous third party spending in this primary--and now we know why.

Is Marty laying the ground work for more forceful and higher profile attacks on his foes? Could be. It was just Tuesday on this blog that one of our GOP analysts said Chavez has dropped the ball by not defining Griego early.

WHEN WILL WE KNOW?

If Hector Balderas picks up his fund-raising pace because of his 45% showing at Saturday's preprimary we probably won't know it for another month. That's when federal fund-raising reports are due for the first quarter of the year. The campaigns are usually tight-lipped about their cash count until the end of the quarter--in this case March 31--or until the reports actually become public in mid-April. Balderas scored with a solid report during his first quarter of the race but came up short in the second. The third time should tell the tale. If he isn't flush with enough cash to make an effective TV buy, the race will tilt heavily toward Heinrich. On the ground organization is vital but TV and media are even more so.

More on that battle for the Dem US Senate nomination. A Santa Fe reader writes:

Joe, Don't you think it might be possible that Balderas is really running for Governor in two years?  A Senate run will garner a lot of name recognition and a network of financial backing for the future...

The Senate run could set up Balderas up for a run for the Dem Guv nomination in 2014, but a loss here is not without risk. Does he lose it ugly?

As hard as it may be Balderas should not be thinking about the future. In order to win the power of the US Senate, he needs to be all in--just as his opponent--Martin Heinrich--is.

MOVING AGAINST MOE

Positive thinking can't hurt, but when ABQ GOP State House candidate Johnny Luevano calls his race against ABQ westside Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas "a top five race," we think he may have been over doing the glass is half-full approach. Maestas looks pretty safe in the heavy Dem district--except perhaps for a stiff primary challenge which has yet to develop. But don't be too hard on Johnny, A UNM poly sci grad. He's a 20 year veteran of the Marine Corps--those guys are used to fighting long odds. Maestas, an attorney, is seeking a fourth term in the state House.

MORE PUNCH NEEDED

On our recent visit to Washington, D.C. to scout out the political climate for you, a longtime GOP lobbyist with ties to New Mexico wondered aloud:

New Mexico receives more Federal funding overall than practically any other state, but yet not one of the five members of the state's congressional delegation is on the House or Senate appropriations committee. The delegation needs better coordination of its committee assignments as the feds look to cut budgets in the years ahead.

Of course, it takes seniority to get on those appropriations committees, something that New Mexico is going to be in short supply of when Senator Bingaman retires at the end of the year.

RESTAURANT WATCH

The Steaksmith in Santa Fe out on the Old Las Vegas Highway is an old reliable. We recall going there as far back as the early 80's. A recent stop there on a trip back from Colorado had us there on a Saturday night sampling their prime rib and seafood. The meat was more than passable, but the trout? Well, the place is called "Steaksmith" for a reason....What happened to the cool little restaurant in the back of Duran's Pharmacy outside of downtown ABQ? It's still there, but the flavor is nothing like it used to be--and that includes the tepid chile....Need a place to hatch a movida? The Copper Lounge on Central Ave. near UNM is dark and moody just like the 1950's. Lunchtime sandwiches are good and ample. Just bring a flashlight if you need to see...

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Heinrich & Family
Help! We're trapped in the preprimary spin zone and can't get out. In this digital age Saturday seems light years away, but it is still front and center among the political class as they seek any advantage they can for their favored contenders. We have to admit the stuff they're bombarding us with is  pretty good so we'll stay with this spin cycle one more day.

Even though he lost the Dem preprimary convention by nearly 10 points to Rep. Martin Heinrich, the campaign of US Senate contender Hector Balderas has been working overtime and furiously spinning that the loss was actually a victory of sorts. We gave him props for not getting blown away by front-runner Heinrich, but not all of our readers were as empathetic, especially the Heinrich supporters. A sample:

The problem with Hector is that the 2nd place finish doesn't translate into money, endorsements or momentum. If we were talking back in October, we would have said he needs to win the preprimary and his own people were saying he was going to beat Martin in the preprimary because Martin didn't know the central committee members, hadn't run statewide and wasn't Hispanic. Now they want to change their narrative. 

Another reader who was at the convention said the speeches made a difference:

Balderas' speech was considered moving by young and old. There must be an emotional connection between voters and the candidate. Balderas hit the right emotional buttons. His opponent moved nobody and it was a dry rehash of Democratic rhetoric. A policy wonk is not going to keep even one voter warm at night. Balderas made the connection with the voters. Heinrich did not and no amount of money is going to buy him an emotional connection.

Reader Joe Campos chimed in with this:

I was at the preprimary convention and a high-ranking Democrat tried to lecture me on how I should be supporting an Hispanic, all the while pointing at my Heinrich sticker, and that I should stop supporting carpetbaggers! For someone of this caliber saying your people need to stick together, sounds absurd....

And this from a Heinrich advocate:

Martin Heinrich is ahead in every poll, he's out-raised everyone in the field, and he just won the grassroots support of the heart of the Democratic party on Saturday at the pre-primary convention. Yet Hector Balderas' campaign is touting victory?

Well, it is kind of amusing to see a ten point loss spun so vigorously, But you gotta work with the hand your dealt.

One of our veteran Republican Alligators came with his summation of the Dems convention:

(Former ABQ Mayor Marty) Chavez is making the same mistake with Eric Griego that he made in 2009 when he was challenged by RJ Berry for mayor and lost. He is failing to define a relatively unknown opponent early. It is a critical strategy for him because he's well-known and not as well-liked as he used to be. As for the Senate race, Balderas did better than expected, probably due to the Hispanic dynamic. But he needed a win (like Griego) to make this a real race. Hector needed a win because of Heinrich's three to one fund-raising advantage. With his win, Griego has an additional edge over Chavez because he's gone toe to toe with him in fund-raising and has the progressive PAC's behind him.

And more on Griego. ABQ Reader Nancy Denker says the Alligator who beat up on him here Monday for not being gun-ho over federal funding for Sandia Labs and Kirtland Air Force Base needs correcting:

Griego’s entire family are veterans--and his sister works on nuclear containment at the labs. His uncle José, a World War II veteran who has just passed, worked for 27 years as a KAFB firefighter. Eric Griego will fight hard to keep ongoing base funding, and to ensure the labs are strong and secure by continuing to develop a future sustainable mission. Griego’s personal knowledge and concerns will have him leading the fight to secure these jobs at KAFB and Sandia National Labs.

HOW MUCH?

We've blogged that Eric Griego beat Marty Chavez at the preprimay by eight points. The actual margin was 7.39%. Griego received 40.72%, Chavez 33.33% and Michelle Lujan Grisham 25.94%.

We posted the Hector Balderas preprimary speech from YouTube on Monday. Now here is the Saturday speech of Martin Heinrich.

NO PHIL BREAK?

We posited that the entry of another candidate to take on northern Dem State Senator Phil Griego might actually be a break for him because it could split up the anti-incumbent vote, but reader Sandra Wechsler begs to differ. She says the challenge from former Santa Fe County Commissioner Jack Sullivan, combined with that from Nicole Castellano, spells trouble for Phil:

Redistricting has resulted in 40% of the district being new; Phil lost much of his northern base as the district shifts south; Jack Sullivan has represented much of Santa Fe's rural southern area as County Commissioner. The point is--Jack is a credible challenger that Phil Griego is facing; hardly a break..

Okay, we're on high alert for this June primary race. We could also speculate that the Hispanic vote could be split up between Castellano and Griego--another factor for Phil to fret about.

SHE'S GONE

For those who did not see our addition to the Monday blog, Agnes Maldonado, sister of Dem State Senator Bernadette Sanchez, is no longer at NM Expo where she had been director of administration. She has also done work for the Guv's political action committee--SusanaPac. We have not heard officially on why she is gone from Expo.

IDEA CORNER

An Alligator of the senior variety emails a suggestion on driver's licenses that gets you thinking:

Why not revoke the driver's licenses of high school students who drop out? Driving is a privilege, not a right. This would be a great incentive for many teenagers to stay in school and improve the dismal drop-out rate we have. The constant arguing over the repeal of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants is making little difference in the state...

IT'S NOT EASY

Leading the University of New Mexico is a challenge in the best of times, but in the aftermath of the chaos created under the regime of David Schmidly, the challenge is doubled for the new president to be. Robert Frank knows it:

The faculty are really a skeptical  kind of group that want, demand,  that my administration demonstrate to  them that I'm going to do things  differently than have been done there  previously," says Mr. Frank, 59,  who is the departing provost of Kent  State University. A survey conducted in December found that Mr. Frank  and one of the  other five finalists for the presidency did not have  the support of the  majority of New Mexico's professors. 
Frank takes over at UNM in June.

TOO BIPARTISAN?

We can all agree that we could use more bipartisanship around here, but ABQ GOP Mayor RJ Berry and Las Cruces Dem Mayor Ken Miyagishima have gone way too far. Take a look:

Mayor Berry and Mayor Miyagishima have teamed up to encourage all New Mexicans to support the University of New Mexico Lobos and the New Mexico State University Aggies as both prepare for second-round NCAA tournament action Thursday in Portland, Ore. 

“This is an exciting time to be a New Mexican!” Mayor Berry said.  “Statewide our teams are excelling and that’s worth cheering about. Let’s all go out and show pride in our great state.”

Nice try, Mayor Berry. But if you think we lifelong Lobo fans are going to use up precious breath  praising the Aggies, you better ask Archbishop Sheehan for a miracle. And you, Miyagishima. If you're caught in Cruces cheering for the Lobos, your next elective office is going to be mayor of Sunland Park. Okay?

Now both you fellas go back to balancing your budgets and let us have our cherished basketball rivalry continue without interruption.

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Balderas & Mother at preprimary
The spin spilleth over. Reaction to Saturday's Democratic Party preprimary convention filled the Facebook and Twitter pages as well as our old fashioned e-mail box. We chipped in our analysis on a weekend blog below and complete convention results are here. Now to that email...

Eric Griego's eight point win in delegate support in the ABQ congressional race over ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and an even larger margin over Michelle Lujan Grisham had this Chavez sympathizer arguing that the June primary results will not mimic those at the convention:

Democratic Party insiders are suffering from Marty fatigue and are engaging is a whisper campaign about his significant other and the beneficiary is Eric Griego. It looks troublesome for Marty now but when rank and file Democrats vote in the primary the outcome will likely be different.  Marty was a middle of the road leader who was a good mayor in spite of an abrasive personality. Griego's environmentalist appeal may not hold with voters whose concern with KAFB and Sandia National Lab jobs motivates their voting choice.

Chavez's girlfriend, Loretta Mares, was recently indicted on embezzlement related charges and some observers feel it may have played a role in his defeat at the hands of Griego.

DI'S TAKE

Former Lt. Governor Diane Denish, a backer of US Senate candidate Hector Balderas, is doing her best to paint Hector's nearly 10 point loss at the convention to Rep. Martin Heinrich as a game-changer--for Balderas:

Hector exceeded all expectations. He went up against an opponent boasting a 20 point polling lead as well as a 3-1 lead in financial resources. Hector's ability to personally connect and tell his NM story was one of the only times the preprimary crowd was silent and listening. This incredible showing for Hector will earn him a second look from even Heinrich supporters as well as  others, and Hector supporters are more energized and proud than ever....

No all agreed with Denish's assessment. For example, this reader dissed the Balderas campaign for calling his loss a "phenomenal" performance:

Only Hector would characterize a loss as phenomenal. With former Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon running his campaign he should have won the preprimary. It is the party Brian built. 

The Balderas campaign posted their candidate's preprimary speech on YouTube.

And then there are those playing both sides of the fence in the Dem Senate race:

I will vote for Hector because I am so disgusted with war mongering Heinrich and so will my friends. We just aren’t broadcasting our choice. I have given money to Heinrich but am keeping silent about not supporting him in the voting booth, just in case. Covering my bases, why not?

CAMPAIGN ACTION

If there's one thing the camp of outgoing Speaker Ben Lujan is determined to avoid, it's having political upstart Carl Trujillo replace him in his Santa Fe County state House seat. And they may have a good start on it. In a surprise announcement, Santa Fe Mayor David Coss says he will seek the seat held by Lujan who was forced into retirement by lung cancer. This presents a major obstacle to Trujillo who almost became a giant killer when he lost to Lujan in the June 2010 primary by less than 90 votes. But Coss is well-known and will be well-financed. And if the field is Trujillo with Coss as the major name--as seems likely--the speaker will throw his weight behind the mayor.

Not that Trujillo need back off. He has some ammo to use against Coss. The city of Santa Fe is anything but a bed of roses these days. Real estate values continue their slow-motion crash, employment is lousy, tax collections remain anemic because of the lousy economy and  property crime continues to spike. Besides arguing that Coss is part of the Lujan political "machine," Trujillo will ask, why voters would want Coss to split his time between two jobs. The answer should be entertaining.

MORE EL NORTE

Keeping it in the north, State Senator Phil Griego may have just been dealt a break. Former Santa Fe County Commissioner Jack Sullivan, 69, is joining the Dem primary race to take out Griego, He joins Nicole Castellano in the contest. But could the two of them split the anti-Griego vote giving Phil the primary win? Griego is nothing if not crafty and has survived a number of political perils in his sprawling district over the years. He may be set up to survive yet another.

 IN THE CITY

Back here in River city, no one is going to argue that ABQ Dem west side State Senator Bernadette Sancehez is an easy target, but Jacob Candelaria, her freshly minted Dem primary opponent has come with some fire and brimstone that may catch voter attention. Sanchez, seeking a fourth, four year term, was an ardent supporter of the dreaded food tax, despite coming from a low income district. She lost the battle when a reinstatement of the tax was vetoed in 2010. Candelaria comes out swinging on that and also those big income tax breaks for the wealthy that many Dems fell in love with under Big Bill:

I support rolling back the 2003 state tax give-away to those making over $250,000 a year, and instead using that money to provide tax relief for hard working families who continue to struggle in this economy...I oppose the anti-family, regressive state tax on food. In 2010, at the height of the recession when working families began to face record high levels of unemployment and home foreclosure, Bernadette Sanchez sponsored and championed a bill that would tax their food...There is a clear choice in this race between someone who will be on the side of working families, and someone that is not. As senator, I will proudly stand with working families.

Candelaria heads up Equality New Mexico, an advocacy group for gays, lesbians and transgenders, but it's his economic argument that catches the eyes, given how debate over income tax policy has come to a screeching halt in the Senate. A conservative coalition of Dems and R's holds forth there. Maybe candidates like Candaleria can get the Democratic Party debate going again?

One other note for those of you new to the scene. The sister of Sen. Sanchez is Agnes Maldonado, a major backer of GOP Guv Martinez who has a management job at NM Expo and has been closely associated with the Guv's political action committee--SusanaPAC. It's another of those connections you need to know as you navigate the long and winding political road around here.

(And readers now tell us that Agnes is no longer at NM Expo).

GOODBYE, DAVID CHAVEZ

David Chavez, you are busted. For quirkiness. A Senior Alligator reported to us a couple of weeks ago that the unpredictable Valencia County first-term GOP State Representative would not seek re-election to his seat, but as soon as the digital ink is dry, he phones in and says it's not so, that he is indeed running, It was a very rare correction of a Senior Gator (Qualifications: minimum age 45 years;, 20 years of experience in La Politica and (optionally) having sought elective office) But it turns out that Chavez apparently did not want to be scooped by us. Now he comes out and announces that he is indeed calling it quits, says the Valencia County News-Bulletin, and will not seek a second term. Just as we told you.

Chavez heads out the door with his quirky reputation intact. He complains about the compensation for legislators, saying the per diem and the limited pension they get is not enough. Chavez is in private law practice and also complains that the time he spent serving in the Legislature was cutting into his business. But he knew all that when he ran, didn't he? After all, his father, the late Democratic political legend Tibo Chavez, was a state senator.

David Chavez, for crossing a Senior Alligator, you are hereby banned from attending all Matanzas for a period of five years and will no longer be allowed to kiss Governor Martinez's ring when it is offered.

As for the Chavez seat, with no incumbent now in the contest maybe former Dem State Rep. Andrew Barreras, who Chavez ousted in 2010, has a better chance? Maybe, but he was ethically challenged on a tax delinquency issue last time. Republican businesswoman Kelly Fajado is the new R hope for the district that performs about 50-50 between the two parties, but might lean Dem in a presidential election year.

MICHAEL'S STANDING

While we are in Valenica County, what about State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez? The aforementioned Chavez was recruited as a possible R foe for Sanchez but will take a pass. So that leaves Governor Martinez without a high-profile name to take on her #1 Roundhouse foe. Sanchez of Belen, brother of former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, has come into his own as leader with Martinez as his foil. The Guv says he has single-handedly killed a number of her priorities. Of course, Sanchez beams like the father of a newborn when he hears that talk. His district is even more Dem friendly under the new boundaries so even with money and a good candidate, Sanchez appears positioned to return to Santa Fe and keep putting the needle in Susana's side.

LINCOLN DAY

It's that time of year for the NM GOP:

The Republican Party of New Mexico Cordially invites you to the 2012 Lincoln Day Dinner. For a conversation on the future of our country, how Western issues are critical to the 2012 elections and what is at stake for our families depending on the outcome of the November elections. With Congressional & Senate Western Caucus Leaders; Congressman Steve Pearce, Chairman, House Western Caucus; Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, Chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee; Saturday March 17 at the ABQ Crowne Plaza Hotel; Individual Tickets $150/ Please RSVP by Monday, March 12th to Heather Hall at (505) 298-3662 or hhall@gopnm.org.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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