King & Blogger: Primed for '14?
Not enough action for you yet on the 2012 campaign trail? Let's hopscotch up to the 2014 marker. There we find the following politicos possibly positioning themselves for the 2014 Dem Guv nomination: Attorney General Gary King, trial attorney Sam Bregman, longtime government administrator and 2010 Lt. Governor candidate Lawrence Rael and State Auditor Hector Balderas, if he comes up short in his quest to beat Rep. Martin Heinrich for the US Senate nomination in the June primary.

It will take millions to run an effective Guv campaign and that's why potential candidates start poking around more than two years before the election. The other big factor in the '14 face-off will be the popularity of GOP Guv Martinez. If she keeps her head above the 50% approval mark, she will be tough for anyone to beat.

 THE SENATE DERBY

We have the race for the open US Senate seat ranked as "lean Dem" but we aren't going to put up much of an argument with those who call it a "toss-up." It has the potential to be quite tight. Veteran analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virgina pretty much nails our view:

The toss up seat likeliest to go Democratic is New Mexico. The Land of Enchantment is heavily Democratic territory these days, and this one wouldn’t even be on the radar had Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) not retired. Granted, Republicans will nominate their strongest candidate, former Rep. Heather Wilson, which gives the GOP a fighting chance in a tough state for them.

We have Rep. Martin Heinrich ranked as the front-runner to take the Dem nomination. Wilson has it in the bag on the R side.

NOT TOO STEEP?

A proposed increase in UNM Student fees is not too steep, says UNM Regent Jamie Koch in response to comments run here Thursday from UNM graduate student association president Katie Richardson. Here's Jamie:

Student fees are necessary to help fund our Olympic sports--skiing, women's swimming, volleyball, men's track and field, women's golf, men's and women's tennis, men's and women's soccer, women's softball and men's baseball. None of these are revenue-producing sports. Students are able to go to all major athletic events free (they are limited to 1500 tickets for men's basketball). The amount that I am asking for from students would be an additional $30 a semester. The University of New Mexico is at the bottom on student fees, when you compare the USA, Mountain West and Western Athletic Conference we’re 19/21...Students fees per semester are currently $245 and I'm asking for an increase of $30. I can understand how a current student would prefer not to have any increase in tuition or fees, so you can clearly understand their opposition. The responsibility of the Regents however is to make sure the University is financially strong. Joe sometime maybe we can have a cup coffee or lunch and have an opportunity to talk.

The Regents are scheduled to continue their budget talks today, with final action slated for April 27.

JOHNNY ON THE SPOT?

We said ABQ GOP state House candidate Johnny Luevano was a possible "Johnny come lately" because he had registered to vote at an address he was not living at and which was not in the district. The district is on the city's west side and represented by Rep. Antonio "Moe Maestas." But Luevano, who served 20 years in the Marine Corps, retorts that he is "Johnny on the Spot:"

Joe, the real questions to be asked and answered here are the following: Does an active-duty military service member have the right to maintain his hometown residency while serving our country? Does an active-duty military service member have the right to vote in his hometown while serving our country? You guys are missing the mark. There are serious accusations here that are not being thought out and I will be asking the voters. We will see if the voters agree with me or my opponent who is trying to suppress active duty voter participation and returning hometown veterans participation in politics.

Meanwhile,  Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver tells ProgressNow NM--the group that first reported the address issue--that she has referred the Luevano matter to the Bernalillo County Sheriff.

WHY NOT MORE?

Question:  Why can't Governor Martinez talk with the Democratic leadership in the state Legislature the same way she spoke with President Obama when he visited here this week? The news:

Gov. Susana Martinez personally thanked President Barack Obama for supporting education reforms that will help improve state schools.The governor met briefly with the president Wednesday in Roswell before Obama headed out for an event in Maljamar where he addressed U.S. energy policies. The Republican Martinez told the Albuquerque Journal she and the Democratic president "speak the same language" on school reform and the effort to end the status quo in schools, despite the influence of special interest groups.

Like we said, why can't we hear that kind of language during the legislative sessions--from both the Governor and the Legislature?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Jay Leno: "Well, the candidates are choosing their Secret Service code names. Rick Santorum chose the name Petrus after his grandfather. And Mitt Romney, you can tell he's a rich guy. You see his name Secret Service code name? Thurston Howell III."

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ABQ GOP Mayor RJ Berry is being hoisted on his own petard as he grapples with the expensive rebuild of the jam packed Paseo Del Norte/I-25 interchange. The project has become a symbol of his effectiveness or lack thereof and the outcome could have a major impact on his re-election fortunes next year.

Berry is trying to lay blame has been put off by the R's so they can apply pressure on the three Dems and get one of them to switch. Berry says we have to have the money now or federal funding would be placed in jeopardy. He doesn't want an election.

The problem here? It was Berry's own political malpractice that got us here in the first place. Last October voters defeated $25 million for the rebuild because Berry would not let them vote solely on Paseo. He insisted that the ballot measure be paired with one for $25 million for a controversial and unpopular "sportsplex." Berry's bonds were defeated in a landslide not necessarily because voters did not want the Paseo project but because of the duplicity of forcing them to vote on the mayor's dreaded pet project.

Here's a simple and direct explanation of exactly what happened from one our Alligators ensconced at City Hall:

 In June of last year an amendment to the budget was introduced that would have put $50 million on the ballot for Paseo. All five Republicans voted against the amendment. All four Democrats voted in favor. The five Republicans instead supported giving the mayor $25 million for a sportsplex and $25 million for Paseo. In other words, the Republicans thought "The Plan" was more important than Paseo, The Republicans not only cut $25 million from Paseo, but they tied the sportsplex to Paseo. The voters shot both down. Almost nobody knows this happened. The Democrats will push the Republican vote against Paseo at the special meeting that will be held Monday.  Mayor Berry needs to take responsibility for Paseo not passing on Monday because he tied Paseo to his sportsplex.

UP TO HIS CHIN

This picture of a billboard (taken by the ABQ Journal) that popped up this week was paid for by a group of business people who wish to remain anonymous, according to the Journal. What are they afraid of? And does the money in any way violate city campaign laws? Just asking.

 Berry was up to his chin in trouble after Paseo was rejected at the ballot box last October. He scurried and managed to get the Legislature to approve $30 million in Paseo funding. But now he is saying the people don't need to vote on the city bonds needed to complete the financing. That's a complete turnaround from his position last year and one that he doesn't seem to want to own up to. Here's the money quote:

Berry said you can always “do your hindsight 20/20 stuff” when it comes to last year’s decisions, but what’s important this month is quick action. “We need money now,” he said.

"Hindsight 20/20 stuff," Mr. Mayor? Well, that "hindsight stuff" represents the ability to govern and lead. In the case of Paseo the 11th floor failed last year. Elections, as they say, have consequences. You can blame the three council Democrats for being partisan and trying to sink Berry's ship by not getting aboard now, but it was they who last year voted to put Paseo on the ballot as a stand alone item. Even Republican Councilor Brad Winter now says he regrets going along with Berry's ballot manipulation.

So should the people get to vote on Paseo as they do on most major road projects of this size? Berry has placed himself in the unenviable position of arguing that the voice of the people should not be heard, even as he argues those same voters should flood the email boxes of the three dissenting councilors. His argument that the public vote must be bypassed or else federal funding will be jeopardized is tenous and easily deflected by the record of past federal funding. Councilor O'Malley points out the funds in question can be applied for every six months. She furter notes that Bernalillo County is helping to fund Paseo and is doing so by asking for bonds to be approved by voters.

Those three councilors Berry is chastising and trying to demonize may or may not be remembered next year if the Paseo rebuild appears stalled, but for sure Mayor Berry's role will be remembered, recounted and campaigned on. He could admit his 2012 election mistake and support another public vote and help get the measure approved and move on.

The Paseo rebuild is far from the public emergency the city fathers foresaw when requiring a council super majority to bypass the voters. It's unfortunate that in his frustration Mayor Berry has lost the patience that seemed to be part of his political character and unleashed his attack dogs. They will put on a good show at the special Monday meeting over Paseo, packing the room and filling it with rabid cries for immediate action. But when all is said and done, this project is going to be decided calmly and deliberately at the ballot box--not by an impromptu partisan mob.

JOHNNY COME LATELY?

Mayor Berry isn't the only politico having trouble owning up to past moves. Take the case of GOP state House candidate Johnny Luevano. He was confronted by TV news cameras about his residency in the west side district he seeks to represent. Here's the exchange:

News 13 asked if Luevano was living in his house by March 6 like the law requires and if he technically qualifies as a District 16 resident. Luevano would not answer yes or no.

"This is what I say. I'm not a politician. I'm not going to play this game," said Luevano. "I'm getting into this race to talk about the issues and put forward solutions."  

The district is represented by Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas who is a heavy favorite for re-election in the Dem heavy area. But now he has some nice ammo for a mail piece to keep Luevano, a retired Marine Corps veteran, from making a move.

CAMPUS CONTROVERSY

Enough seems to be enough for a number of students at the University of New Mexico. A lousy economy and ever rising costs
will have them protesting a proposed $77 student fee increase and 3 percent tuition increase. A protest is slated for the Student Union Building Atrium today at noon today. Katie Richardson, president of the UNM graduate students, emails us this missive:

...The total fee increase would come to 20% or $93.71 per student, when Governor Martinez and the state budget implements a 5% maximum on tuition increases. The regents' suggested fee increase of $77 would go entirely to fund athletics and the libraries. Regent Koch gave a lengthy defense of the ski team, saying that if fees weren't raised for athletics, small, successful teams would be cut. Students whole-heartedly support these small teams, but we can't stomach paying a dime more than we already do in athletics fees ($81.75 per student) when the so-called “revenue generating” teams, basketball and football, have indebted the athletics department more than a million dollars. 

UNM libraries are ranked 94th out of 115 member libraries of the Association of Research Libraries, so students applaud the sudden administrative interest in supporting the central hub of learning and research at UNM. But, library costs should be covered institutionally, either through research funds or through state appropriations and tuition, not fees. Ultimately, students believe that this suggested 20% fee increase is arbitrary and makes an end-run around the governor's 5% limit on tuition increases, especially when library and athletics costs are also line items in the tuition column of the budget, not just the fees column.

OBAMA IN NEW MEXICO 
(Alligator photo from Maljamar)
One of our Alligators was on hand Wednesday as President Obama spoke to a gathering in out of the way Maljamar in oil country in SE NM. (Yes, those Gators are everywhere). The remote setting, some 300 miles SE of ABQ, reminded us of that Dwight Yoakum song, "A Thousand Miles from Nowhere."

Obama stressed that there is plenty of oil and gas drilling going on federal lands like those he visited, but that gasoline prices are being pushed up by world demand.

His New Mexico trip began around 5:30 p.m. when he landed in Roswell. It captured good coverage on the 6 p.m. newscasts of the ABQ network affiliates--something his political team was conscious of as they work to nail down the state's five electoral votes in the November election.

The energy story is double-edged for our state. High oil prices mean lots of jobs and gobs of royalty money flowing into the state treasury. On the other hand, high gas prices are especially painful here where so many low-income families reside.

And now for the answer to  the question a lot of New Mexicans want to know today: What does "Maljamar" mean? The AP says:

According to the menu at Linda’s Grill, “William Mitchell, president of Maljamar Oil & Gas Company, which brought the first oil well to southeastern New Mexico in 1926, reportedly named the town for his three children, Malcolm, Janet and Margaret.”

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Welcome into the Wednesday blog, and welcome to New Mexico, Mr. President. The political news is coming at a fast and furious pace this week with that presidential visit, the official filings of the legislative and other candidates and the withdrawal from the ABQ congressional race of Republican Dan Lewis. We've got you covered--from the races that caught our eye on candidate filing day to the Lewis story which we broke to the state Tuesday morning. Now it's off to the key action and analysis from the home of New Mexico politics...

After all the blog work we did on Eddy County and the presidential visit, what happens? The White House apparently got its signals crossed when it said Obama would visit the Carlsbad area in Eddy County. Now they say he's going to be in Lea County:

In spite of earlier news releases from White House sources, President Obama will be near Maljamar - not Carlsbad--when he makes his statement on domestic oil and gas production Wednesday afternoon. Maljamar is in Lea County, some 40 miles due east of Artesia. The presidential party will travel to oil and gas production fields located on federal lands, an area home to more than 70 active drilling rigs... 

Well, Lea County was an even worse performing county for Obama than Eddy in 2008. And this won't be the first presidential visit to Lea. President Bush, in 2004, stopped there in his drive for re-election. The way Obama loses in the SE it's no wonder the White House has trouble remembering how to get around down there.

FILING DAY ACTION

So here are some of the races that grabbed us while we pored over the candidate filings Tuesday on the SOS web site and Bernalillo County's.

In the GOP primary contest to replace retiring ABQ GOP State Senator Mark Boitano, it will be Lisa Torraco against political newcomer Gerges Scott. Torraco, an attorney, was the GOP nominee for Bernalillo County district attorney in 2008, but lost the general election to Kari Brandenburg. Alligators say that experience gives her the starting advantage over Gerges Scott, an energy analyst and VP with DW Turner public relations, but the race is in play and the nomination is valuable. Either Torraco or Scott are nearly guaranteed a trip to Santa Fe once one of them cinches the nomination. The district is heavy R.

In the race to replace Dem ABQ North Valley State Senator Dede Feldman, it looks as though Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill may have caught a break as he seeks to replace Dede. Two Hispanic Dems--Laura Sanchez and Carlos Cordova--have also filed for the Dem nomination. That could conceivably set up an ethnic split that would benefit O'Neill who is leaving his House seat to go for the Senate. Chris Catechis is also running for the Dem nod.

Meanwhile, it will be a spirited race to replace O'Neill in the House. Joe D. Craig who runs a firm that provides marketing services to architects and engineers is in on the Dem side. So is Matt David Munoz and so is Emily Kane. The R's have fielded Kenneth King and Chris Saucedo, an attorney with connections to GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson. This is a swing seat that goes down into the North Valley and Los Rancho as well as up into the far NE Heights.

And is it going to be crazy or what for ABQ Dem State Sen. Bernadette Sanchez. She has drawn three primary opponents including..hold on to your hat--the old Valley Alligtor himself--Steve Gallegos. The other candidates are Jacob Candelaria and Carlos Jose Villanueva. Bernadette's foes say she has been too conservative for the low-income Valley and West Side seat. No R's need apply. This is Valley action all the way, Gators....

FREE RIDES

There's nothing like a free ride and Dem Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver just got one. She is the only Dem candidate for the June primary and no Republicans filed. That means Maggie gets a second four year term in November. Now, will she start thinking more seriously about running for Secretary of State in 2014?

And there goes ABQ Dem State Sen. Cisco McSorley, in the Senate game since 1997, getting a free ride. No Dem opponent and no R filed to take him on in his university area liberal district. Didn't we just seem him the other day planning campaign strategy at a UNM area coffee stop? You can put the briefing books away, Cisco.

And there goes Republican free rider Sander Rue zipping by. The first term lawmaker from the city's west side is going to get a return trip to Santa Fe for four years. No primary foe and no Dem filed to take him on in November. Nothing for him to "rue" about today.

TIM VS. SHANNON

Dem State Senator Tim Keller is unopposed for his party's nomination in the June 5 primary, but the general election promises to be entertaining. Colorful Shannon Robinson who Keller beat in the Democratic primary in the mid-NE Heights district four years ago is back running as a Republican and with the support of former State GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr.

The play here isn't so much about taking Keller out. He's a rising star in the party and and is weighing a run for higher office--perhaps Mayor of ABQ or state treasurer. By getting Shanon in the battle they force Keller to spend his campaign treasury and rough him up as he tries to improve his image for that possible future run at higher office. Shannon is an attorney who has enough political baggage to fill the largest suitcase produced by American Tourister, but that doesn't mean you won't want a front-row seat for this one. Robinson knows how to play.

PINTO STILL PLAYING

Back in May of last year, we got all excited when we learned--erroneously it turned out--that State Senator John Pinto--the longest serving senator--was going to retire. Pinto, who arrived in Santa Fe in 1977 and is now 87, filed Tuesday for yet another term. The Indian Country lawmaker is being opposed by Matthew Tso.

NO TO DR. NO?

Did you see where Dr. No drew a Dem primary opponent? We speak of conservative Dem State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith. One Larry Martinez filed against him for the Dem nomination. Smith is heavily favored for re-election in the Deming area seat, but his conservative Dem ways have turned off many of his compatriots. The Martinez candidacy reinforces that message. And who is this prospective giant killer? Martinez emails us from Lordsburg:

The poverty rate in parts of this district is the highest in the state and hasn’t dropped in 25 years.  I’m running because I think whoever represents Deming, T or C, and Lordsburg needs to be someone who supports making investments in our people that will draw jobs and better opportunities to southwest New Mexico.”
 
Martinez says he is retired from PNM, where he was a journeyman electrician for over 20 years. He is also Secretary of the Hidalgo County Democratic Party and a member of the Board of Directors of the Hidalgo Medical Center.  Martinez is a native New Mexican, 54 years old, and owns a small electrical contracting company in Lordsburg.

Look out, Dr. No. This fella sounds like he's serious.

THE NORTHERN BEAT

From up north, the ABQ Journa's Dan Boyd reports:

After being paired with a fellow House Democrat in redistricting, incumbent Rep. Thomas Garcia, D-Ocate, has decided to leave the New Mexico House of Representatives to run in the primary election against longtime Sen. Pete Campos, D-Las Vegas.

And the Associated Press comes with this filing day news:

(Former ABQ GOP State Senator) Diane Snyder...is running against Sen. Tim Eichenberg, a Democrat who defeated her in the general election four years ago....In the House, Democrat Nate Cote of Las Cruces is challenging Republican Rep. Rick Little of Chaparral, who defeated him in 2010. Cote served in the House in 2007-2010. 

MUST WATCH RACES 

Veteran Republican political analyst Bruce Donisthorpe (he'll be with us Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM Radio) comes with some of his must watch races from Tuesday's filing day frenzy:

--Senate District 9--Dem Senator John Sapien faces primary and general election challenges! Dem Ben Rodefer and Rep. David Doyle who is favored to win the GOP nod for the seat.

--SD 33--A  Republican primary between incumbent GOP State Senators Rod Adair of Roswell and Bill Burt of Alamogordo. Lincoln County voters are the kingmakers in this race folks! Tularosa Dem Stephanie DuBois faces the winner in November.

--SD 29--State Senator Michael Sanchez versus Republican challenger David Chavez. Will probably be one of the most expensive and nasty races of the fall. Take no prisoners will be the campaign war cry of each side. No disrespect meant to the state prisoners in the area.

--SD 8--A Dem primary between upstart Mora County Superintendent and State Rep. Thomas Garcia and veteran incumbent Senator Pete Campos of Las Vegas.

--SD 22, A four-way Dem primary featuring incumbent Senator Lynda Lovejoy and three challengers including Benny Shendo Jr., Josh Madalena and Anthony Montoya. 

--SD 30--A four-way primary for the seat held by David Ulibarri of Grants. Clemente Sanchez, who lost the primary by six votes last time is back for the rematch. GOP has entrant in Vicky Perea.

--SD 39--A three way primary for seat held by Sen. Phil Griego. Griego starts the race as the favorite, but this race bears close watching in this unpredictable year.

--SD 4--Dem Sen. George Munoz of Gallup draws two challengers. That should be interesting.

--SD 14--Four Dems vie to replace Sen Eric Griego, including former Sen. James Taylor who lost the seat in 2008. Michael Padilla, Cecelia Tkach and State Rep. Elanor Chavez are also in the race.

--SD 21--Three Republicans file to win back the seat held by Kent Cravens who resigned. Dem Lisa Curtis is the Dem appointee until the Nov election. Seat leans to the R's.

STURGESS STALLS

We thought he would make it, but Republican attorney Chris Sturgess came up short in his efforts to get enough petition signatures to qualify as a candidate for Bernalillo County district attorney. That means the R's will have no candidate for this high profile office. Democratic District Attorney Kari Brandenburg is being challenged for the D nomination by former public defender Jennifer Romero.

DONA ANA DOINGS

We have all the match-ups for the Dona Ana County legislative races here. One of the highlights:

Longtime House member Joseph Cervantes will give up his District 52 seat to seek Nava's Senate seat. He'll be challenged by former Sunland Park Mayor Jesus Ruben Segura in the Democratic primary. The winner will face Republican Brett C. Preston in the general election.

THE WINDER ROAD

How about this for a first time political break? Republican ABQ District Court Judge Sam Winder, appointed to fill a vacancy by GOP Guv Martinez, apparently dodges any primary opposition. Attorney Paul Barber was thought to be preparing a run against Sam, but opted to seek the GOP nomination for the newly created state House seat 68 on the west edge of ABQ. But Winder, who says he's the first Native American Republican appointed to the district court, still has an uphill climb to stay on the bench. In the November election he will face Democratic Metro Court Judge Ben Chavez who filed Tuesday for Winder's judgeship.

JOHN SANCHEZ RESPONDS

Lt. Governor John Sanchez has been taking it on the chin from us and others over the first time he ever voted. He says there is an explanation for his weekend statement that he voted for Ronald Reagan, even though he was not of legal voting age in 1980 when Reagan first ran for president. 
 
In response to questions regarding my remarks made at last Saturday's Republican Pre- Primary Nominating Convention, I want to be perfectly clear. I turned eighteen on January 11, 1981. The first time that I was able to cast a ballot for President was in 1984 and I proudly cast  that vote for Ronald Reagan. On Saturday, I stated that ‘My very first vote when I turned eighteen years old was for a man called Ronald Reagan.’ I was referring to the first time that I was able to cast a ballot for President after turning eighteen years old...

Well explained, John, but who wrote that line, "I want to be perfectly clear?" That's one of the most famous lines from former President Richard Nixon who was first elected in 1968. We know you didn't vote for him, John, but it appears you are channeling him.

OUR LEWIS COVERAGE

In case you missed it...
Dan Lewis
What a 60th birthday gift for Janice Arnold Jones.  As she celebrated her birthday today, the ABQ congressional hopeful  received the news that her chief rival for the Republican nomination is  getting out of the race. We broke the news to the state via our Twitter account Tuesday morning. Here's the story....

Dan Lewis  announced today he is out of the race for the GOP nomination for the  ABQ congressional seat, paving the way for the June nomination of former  ABQ State Representative Janice Arnold Jones who trounced Lewis at  Saturday's preprimary convention. She garnered about 63% of the delegate  support to Lewis' 34 per cent. Retired Army Seargent Gary Smith received four percent.

In getting out Lewis said he did not want to "split the party," the same reasoning Lt. Governor John Sanchez gave when he recently gave up his challenge of GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson. Lewis said he is not endorsing Arnold Jones because the ABQ primary is still contested.

Here is his complete withdrawal statement. 

Lewis, an ABQ west side city  councilor, has had trouble putting his campaign together. He began with  political consultant Doug Antoon, but when he left he never did hire a permanent campaign manager. His fund-raising was also anemic. At the end of the  year he only had $102,000 banked. But Arnold-Jones has been even more  challenged in the fund-raising department, She showed only $20,000 in  cash on hand at the end of the year. But that is all about to change as  R's pull out their wallets to give her a push toward November.

The withdrawal of Lewis means a bloody, internecine battle between Janice and Dan is avoided and the R's can prepare for the fall battle. It also denotes that while the hard-right of the Republican Party talks a tough game their candidates have proven to be only electable in southern New Mexico.

Lewis,  a pastor, tangled with 2010 ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Jon Barela  and also split with ABQ GOP Mayor RJ Berry on a number of occasions.  That tarnished his conservative credentials in some quarters and was  seen as a factor in his decisie defeat at the preprimary.

The  rush to Arnold-Jones is seen as a play by the R's to bolster the  chances of GOP US Senate hopeful Heather Wilson. She needs a good ABQ  area performance and the presence of Arnold-Jones on the ticket is seen  as drawing conservative Dems and independents to the R side. They also  see Arnold Jones as the best bet against liberal Dem State Senator Eric  Griego, the current front-runner for the Dem nomination, believing that  the ABQ district, despite becoming more blue in recent years, still  desires a moderate congressional representative.

But  Arnold Jones is not popular with the conservative Republican base. Her  refusal to endorse the death penalty is especially problematic with them  and her reaching across the aisle to Dems in Santa Fe has also drawn  critics from the conservative column.

Arnold Jones  looks good on paper, but her lackluster performance when she sought the  2010 GOP Guv nomination haunts her, She only manged to win 3% of the  vote. Still, the Lewis withdrawal catapults  Arnold Jones to the highest  political plateau of her political career. Smith says he will stay in  the race and get on the June ballot by collecting extra nominating  petitions, but the party is quickly closing ranks behind Janice and she  will be the prohibitive front-runner.

The ABQ  congressional seat went Dem for the first time in its history in 2008  when Dem Martin Heinrich was swept in with the Obama landslide. He  narrowly won re-election in 2010 and is now leaving the House to seek  the open US Senate seat. We have the ABQ seat ranked as "likely Dem." 

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Dan Lewis
What a 60th birthday gift for Janice Arnold Jones. As she celebrated her birthday today, the ABQ congressional hopeful received the news that her chief rival for the Republican nomination is getting out of the race. We broke the news to the state via our Twitter account Tuesday morning. Here's the story....

Dan Lewis announced today he is out of the race for the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat, paving the way for the June nomination of former ABQ State Representative Janice Arnold Jones who trounced Lewis at Saturday's preprimary convention. She garnered about 63% of the delegate support to Lewis' 34 per cent. Retired Army Seargent Gary Smith received four percent.

In getting out Lewis said he did not want to "split the party," the same reasoning Lt. Governor John Sanchez gave when he recently gave up his challenge of GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson. Lewis said he is not endorsing Arnold Jones because the ABQ primary is still contested.

Here is his complete withdrawal statement. 

Lewis, an ABQ west side city councilor, has had trouble putting his campaign together. He began with political consultant Doug Antoon, but when he left the campaign he never did hire a campaign manager. His fund-raising was also anemic. At the end of the year he only had $102,000 banked. But Arnold-Jones has been even more challenged in the fund-raising department, She showed only $20,000 in cash on hand at the end of the year. But that is all about to change as R's pull out their wallets to give her a push toward November.

The withdrawal of Lewis means a bloody, internecine battle between Janice and Dan is avoided and the R's can prepare for the fall battle. It also denotes that while the hard-right of the Republican Party talks a tough game their candidates have proven to be only electable in southern New Mexico.

Lewis, a pastor, tangled with 2010 ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Jon Barela and also split with ABQ GOP Mayor RJ Berry on a number of occasions. That tarnished his conservative credentials in some quarters and was seen as a factor in his decisive defeat at the preprimary.

The rush to Arnold-Jones is seen as a play by the R's to bolster the chances of GOP US Senate hopeful Heather Wilson. She needs a good ABQ area performance and the presence of Arnold-Jones on the ticket is seen as drawing conservative Dems and independents to the R side. They also see Arnold Jones as the best bet against liberal Dem State Senator Eric Griego, the current front-runner for the Dem nomination, believing that the ABQ district, despite becoming more blue in recent years, still desires a moderate congressional representative.

But Arnold Jones is not popular with the conservative Republican base. Her refusal to endorse the death penalty is especially problematic with them and her reaching across the aisle to Dems in Santa Fe has also drawn critics from the conservative column.

Arnold Jones looks good on paper, but her lackluster performance when she sought the 2010 GOP Guv nomination haunts her. She only managed to win 3% of the vote. Still, the Lewis withdrawal catapults Arnold Jones to the highest political plateau of her political career. Smith says he will stay in the race and get on the June ballot by collecting extra nominating petitions, but the party is quickly closing ranks behind Janice and she will be the prohibitive front-runner.

The ABQ congressional seat went Dem for the first time in its history in 2008 when Dem Martin Heinrich was swept in with the Obama landslide. He narrowly won re-election in 2010 and is now leaving the House to seek the open US Senate seat. We have the ABQ seat ranked as "likely Dem."

SUSANA AND HECTOR--2014?
Shades of 2014? (Capitol Report photo)
Is this photo of Republican Governor Susana Martinez and Democratic State Auditor Hector Balderas a glimpse of what we will see come the 2014 New Mexico's Governor's race? Never mind that the two were holding a news conference Monday to talk about a possible state government takeover of scandal-plagued Sunland Park. The politicos were rarin' to go, speculating that if Hector comes up short in his current bid for the Dem US Senate nomination against Rep. Martin Heinrich, he could start hatching plans for a '14 Guv run against Susana. And why not? There's not exactly a line forming of well-known and well-liked Dem candidates.

We note that Susana and Hector held the news conference outside of the Guv's office, not in the traditional room with the big roundtable and voters are used to seeing their Governors hold forth. "Don't you get any ideas," Susana may have been thinking about Hector.

Both elected officials, however, might have to work on their decisiveness. They said it's too soon for the state to intervene in Sunland Park, even though top officials in the border city are under indictment and the whole scandal reads like a Third-World political novel.

ISN'T THAT SPECIAL?

Call us sentimental for a bygone era but we found the rare bipartisanship that the photo of Martinez and Balderas represents refreshing. We find this Governor especially cagey when it comes to posing with anyone of the opposite political persuasion. Maybe now that she's done it with Hector she will find it doesn't hurt very much--and that it will benefit her politically as she looks to her 2014 re-election.

One other thing. Does Martinez posing with Balderas give him a boost against front-runner Martin Heinrich in that Senate Dem primary? Well, if it does, Susana isn't complaining.

LAST CALL

It's last call for the 112 New Mexico state House and Senate seats. Today is the official filing day for Primary Election 2012. Most of the key players and races are known by now, but everyone is on the look out for a filing day surprise or two.

We've had quite the exodus from the Legislature this cycle, as the AP reports:

The New Mexico Legislature is poised for its most dramatic facelift in two decades as near record numbers of  House and Senate members have decided to retire or seek another office. All 112 seats in the Legislature are up for election this year and 17 lawmakers have announced they're not running for another term..

In case you missed it, here again is our unofficial slogan for the new Santa Fe:  "It just isn't fun anymore."

How could it be? The bull market days of an overflowing state treasury are gone, the Republican Governor and Dem Legislature fight with each other constantly, nothing gets passed and there are a lot fewer lobbyist parties being thrown for the disgruntled lawmakers.

Still, the show must go on--or in this case---the government. It's just going about its business in much smaller ways---and with much smaller thinking.

FOLLOW THE ACTION

Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver says many of the state legislative candidates from this area are required to file with her office. You can monitor who is filing today via the clerk's website.

OTHER OFFICES

It's not just filing day for the legislative seats but also county commission hopefuls, district attorney candidates, Public Regulation Commission contenders and more. One tidbit for you. GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Wiener--who owns more than his share of controversial headlines--will draw a primary challenge from Republican businessman Lonnie Talbert, a former president of the ABQ Chamber of Commerce. Add that one to your "races to watch" list.

DA DOINGS

We've told you about the heated race developing between Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg and Jennifer Romero, a former public defender who is challenging her for the Dem nomination as Kari seeks a fourth, four year term. But who will the winner of that primary face in November? The R's say they have a name. He is Chris Sturgess who has worked with the state public defender's office. The R's are busy rounding up last minute petition signatures to file today so  Sturgess will be on the primary ballot come June 5.

SMITH WATCH

Amid speculation that he would quit his campaign for the ABQ GOP US House nomination after failing to score the needed 20% delegate support at the state preprimary convention, the campaign of retired Army Seargent Gary Smith says he has suspended his advertising. However, the campaign adds that at this time he intends to go forward with his candidacy. A spokesman say he first wants to secure the extra petition signatures he needs to get a spot on the June 5 primary ballot. No candidate has ever won the primary after being denied a ballot position at a preprimary.

THE BETTING LINE

The very early betting line from the Senior Alligator crowd has the Dems picking up a couple of seats in the state House in November and putting an end to talk of a GOP takeover. Overall, they say the recent legislative redistricting is not going to be as much of a problem for the Dems in a high turnout presidential election year. However, that could change in the low turnout year of 2014. It's early so the betting line is subject to change.

DEAD ZONE

Is ABQ a jobs dead zone or what? Has anything of any size--outside of the Lowe's call center--come in here the past several years? Nope. And you hear zip about it from the city's economic development department, the city councilors or the mayor. We've seen more life in roadkill in Tucumcari than in the ABQ job market. Just sayin'.

It is absurd to hear some corners tell us not to fret about possible forthcoming federal budget cuts that would wreak havoc with the state economy They advise us to bring in new jobs to replace the high-paying fed positions and contractor money that would be lost in as the federal hatchet fell. The problem? They don't tell us how long we would have to wait for those wonderful new jobs. We want them as bad as anyone and believe our private sector can get it done--but eventually not overnight.

No, the short-term answer is clear as the starry sky on a summer night in the New Mexico mountains.New Mexico must fight to keep the federal funding it has while it goes about the very long term business of diversification. Our congressional delegation must muscle up. Our state's core national security mission--which founded the modern day economy here during WWII--has to be explained and defended. Otherwise, the economic rug is going to be pulled from underneath us and this state is going to be sent reeling backwards. The long unwinding may have already begun with the Los Alamos cutbacks.

Let's not kid ourselves. If the federal budget cuts are here to stay, some states will suffer more than others. States with congressional representation that is savvy, committed, has seniorit and is in fighting shape are going to get more. But if you keep telling Washington that you don't care about the spending cuts, that you can replace all that federal money with dreamed of private business, guess what? You're gonna get cut.

What this state needs in the here and now is not a fantastical new economic paradigm, but a Dennis Chavez, a Clinton Anderson or a Pete Domenici. Call us when you see one.

BLACK GOLD

In blogging of Obama's planned visit to Carlsbad tomorrow, we pointed out how the state's small population counties--like Eddy County--contribute a huge share of state revenues via royalties on energy production. That brought this quick retort from former ABQ mayor and state land commissioner Jim Baca who never misses an opportunity spar with the oil and gas crowd:


Those oil royalties paid in Eddy County are paid because the state and feds own the oil. It is our share of the take. The oil boys always say they pay for everything when in fact they are just paying for a product that is not owned by them.  It is owned by the State Land Office which funds education or by the Bureau of Land Management which then turns around and gives a portion of its royalties to the state as payment in lieu of taxes.

True enough, but the oil and gas industry does do the exploration and risk-taking to get the oil and gas out of the ground--no matter where it is.

BUST OF THE MONTH

Lt. Governor John Sanchez, you are so busted!

Sanchez spoke (at Saturday's GOP preprimary convention) of the pride he felt as an 18-year-old when he voted for Ronald Reagan in the 1980 presidential election. The curious part is that every record we have checked shows that Sanchez was born on Jan. 11, 1963. Therefore, he would not have reached the legal voting age of 18 until 1981--two months after Reagan's election. Sanchez could be older than his stated age of 49, meaning various biographical data and public records about him are incorrect.

Is John vain and fudging about his age? Or did he (someone warm up the black helicopters) vote illegally for Ronald Reagan? Ye gads!  Say it ain't so, John. And what about your driver's license, John? You got the right birth date on it? An illegal driver's license? Susana, pull this guy over....

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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Sen. Sanchez
Welcome back. If you didn't catch our special weekend coverage of the Saturday GOP preprimary convention just scroll down for our report. The key points? Will GOP Senate candidate Greg Sowards spend much of the $600,000 he has banked now that Heather Wilson cleaned his clock at the convention?

Janice Arnold-Jones now takes the front-runner position away from Dan Lewis after scoring a big convention win, but she has to raise money to match the convention performance if she is going to keep it. Now it's on to a new week and the fresh action....

Valencia County GOP State Rep. David Chavez is turning out to be one of the more surreal characters of  La Politica. First, he says he will not seek a second term in the House because serving in Santa Fe is cramping his ability to make money in his private law practice. Then he immediately turns around and announces that he is going to take on Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez. What? You won't lose money in your biz when your a Senator, David? Seems he has some 'splanin to do to those House constituents he is abandoning. He told them only this month:

I have to dedicate myself to my practice and my clients. I am extraordinarily busy and have obligations to my clients.

What happened here, according to the top sources in state politics, is that Susana PAC, led by Guv chief political adviser Jay McCleskey, has been urgently trying to field an opponent against Sanchez who Martinez sees as enemy #1 in thwarting her legislative agenda. But they couldn't find anyone. With the March 20 deadline rapidly approaching, Jay seized upon Chavez's decision to abandon his House seat and persuaded him to make the run against Sanchez (Chavez previously ran and lost against Sanchez back in 2000).

Chavez will have a very tough time taking Sanchez out because of the way he is leaving his House seat and because of his own political baggage--both public and personal. But the point doesn't seem to be to take the seat, but to make sure that Susana PAC and other interested Sanchez foes can launch vigorous attacks against Sanchez and make him spend time and money defending himself.  On the other hand, the more motivated you get Leader Sanchez the harder he will work to get supporters to the polls--supporters who will also vote for President Obama, and the Democratic nominee for US Senate. That's not an unimportant point as Valencia County is a key swing county. But satisfying Susana's longing for payback seems paramount--even if the end result is only emotional  satisfaction--not any impact on how the state is actually led.

OBAMA TO NM

President Obama wings into New Mexico Wednesday, but he won't be visiting any of the state's three metro areas--ABQ, Santa Fe or Las Cruces. Instead he will set down in Carlsbad  in SE NM for what locals say is the first ever presidential visit there. He will visit oil and gas fields located on federal lands near Carlsbad to highlight his "all of the above" energy policy. But the visit also marks Obama's entry into the 2012 presidential fray here.

In 2008 Obama did not carry Eddy County where Carlsbad is located. He lost to McCain who captured 62% of the vote there. He will likely lose it again, despite it having registration numbers that favor the Dems. But those are mostly "Little Texas" Dems who routinely vote R. Still, if Obama can maintain his '08 pace in the region and carry the state's metros as he did four years ago, he will be in good shape for his re-elect here.

New Mexico can still be called a "swing" state, but it just doesn't look as "swingy." Obama carried Bernalillo County (basically Albuquerque) in 2008 by a previously unimaginable 59,000 votes. Say that victory margin is trimmed by half. That would still give him a 30,000 vote cushion as the R's try to make up the margin in the south and the traditionally Democratic north.

This is Obama's first visit to the state since September 2010 when he campaigned for unsuccessful Dem Guv candidate Diane Denish. On a swing west earlier this year, he bypassed New Mexico.

There is a great deal of ambivalence over Obama, but he is blessed by an opposition that so far has proven itself too far to the right to present a serious threat to him here. However, likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney has shown, that like Obama, he can perform in the cities. That's something for the R's to hang their hats on. But the President usually retains good popularity (it can wax and wane) with the growing ranks of Hispanic voters (Native Americans,  too) and getting them out to vote will cinch it for him.

With the cities looking solid, Obama's Carlsbad visit is a reminder that in order for him to lose the state's five electoral votes, the GOP must deliver blockbuster results in the south. Any chipping away by Obama in counties like Eddy poisons their well. That's not the official reason for Obama visiting Carlsbad Wednesday, but it does play into that particular narrative.

EVER HAPPEN?

Martha Mauritson, the managing editor of the Carlsbad Current-Argus, writes:

The official Carlsbad historian, a wonderful man named Jed Howard, says no sitting presidents before Obama have visited Carlsbad. The Democratic presidential candidate in 1896, 1900 and 1908--William Jennings Bryan--was here a couple of times, but that's about it.

Obama will be traveling to a section of our state that has been spared the worst of the lengthy recession. In fact, it has thrived. Energy rich Eddy County sports an unemployment rate of only 4 percent. That's basically full employment as the oil and gas industry prospers, along with the potash mines. There were recent layoffs at WIPP--the federally operated low level nuclear waste site--but there does not appear to be a long-term threat to its funding.

No president before Obama has visited Carlsbad, but that doesn't mean previous White House occupants were not aware of it. That's because of the world-renowned Carlsbad Caverns. President Coolidge, in 1923, signed a proclamation establishing Carlsbad Cave National Monument. In 1930, the Congress established Carlsbad Caverns National Park and in 1978 Carlsbad Caverns Wilderness was established with the signature of President Carter. The awe-inspiring caves are a must-see for visitors and state residents alike.

GOP RURAL PROBLEM

The Republican (and conservative) demographic problem in New Mexico is well illustrated by a glance at the population stats for Eddy County and the city of Carlsbad. In 2000, Eddy had a population of 51,000. By 2010, the census says that number had grown to only 53,800. For Carlsbad, the 2000 population was 25,625 and only slightly higher at 26,138 in 2010. Small town and rural voters are an ever shrinking part of the state population pie. Carlsbad is actually in pretty good shape compared to other towns around the east side. The area lost a state Senate seat in the recent legislative redistricting because of sinking population.

The irony here is that Eddy and surrounding counties provide a huge portion of state revenues from energy royalties that keep state government running.

WE'RE BLEEDING

We have continuing economic and business coverage around here that you won't get anywhere else. And that leads us to the catacombs of the NM Workforce Department and the latest on the state jobless rate. This official spin from a department newsletter is actually no spin at all, but the raw truth we've been reporting during this long economic malaise. The unemployment rate in the state continues to drop, not because of "job creators" adding jobs, but mostly because the state work force is shrinking. From the state's Labor Market Review:

New Mexico's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.0 percent in January 2012, unchanged from December but down from 7.7 percent a year earlier...The statewide unemployment rate for January 2012 was down a full percentage point from its recessionary peak, but much of the decline resulted from a shrinking labor force participation rate with many individuals previously classified as unemployed no longer counted as such. Labor force participation can decrease because of both cyclical (e.g., an increase in worker discouragement) and structural (e.g., an increase in worker retirement) factors.

This Great Recession has permanently sidelined thousands of New Mexicans. Many of them are simply drifting away.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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