Try as we might we can't see how Tuesday's primary election represented any significant change in the state political landscape. What it did signal is a new paradigm in gubernatorial campaigning that may or may not end with this administration.

Meanwhile, the argument that the Guv's hand was strengthened in the Legislature because Senators Phil Griego, John Arthur Smith and Pete Campos won their primaries seems a stretch. Weren't their wins simply a ratification of the status quo? Are they suddenly going to be even more Martinez-friendly because they defeated Dem progressive candidates and received some financial help from the Martinez-affiliated Reform NM super PAC?

Well, they may be more anti-progressive because of it, but that doesn't necessarily mean even more pro-Martinez. Perhaps, as one wag suggested, they cast a couple of more crossovers votes for the Guv. Perhaps.

One newspaper headline blared of the election results: "Progressive Dems Lose Ground."

Not true. Progressives did not pick up any seats, but they didn't lose any either. The Senate seems much the same. 

As for the state House, we're going to have to wait until November to see if the electorate will put the R's in charge. It's a long shot in a presidential year, but that's where the GOP might be best off concentrating its efforts.

FOLEY'S TAKE

Former State House Minority Whip Dan Foley had a reaction to the election results that was provocative:

On the Republican side, legislators know if you don't get in line with Gov. Martinez's agenda you could be facing a well-financed primary opponent...

The Governor lost big when she personally intervened on behalf of east side GOP State Senate candidate Angie Spears who was soundly defeated by rancher Pat Woods in what was widely viewed as a rejection of outside interference in a local race.

Foley seems to mean that even though Martinez lost that expensive and bloody battle to Woods, the Governor's political machine will still act as a deterrent to R's thinking about being independent.

We have no doubt that Martinez--a former prosecutor with a dig-in-your-heels style--is now going to double down, with her campaigning (and attacking) becoming even more intense. That's her way and that's the Jay McCleskey way that we have seen in action for the last decade.

CHECKING THE SPIN

As for the spin that Susana's direct and high-profile interference in that disputed GOP Clovis Senate primary was similar to how Democratic Governor Bill Richardson conducted himself in the 2004 Dem legislative primaries, we don't find that to be the case.

Searching our blog archives from that year, we find that Richardson did issue a high-profile endorsement of Ben Ray Lujan for the northern seat on the Public Regulation Commission. It was controversial, but not similar to what Susana did because it was not a Legislative race--and he did not attack Ben Ray's opponents.

In that primary Richardson was also moving funds from his Moving America Forward PAC to support Hector Balderas who was then seeking a state House seat, but Richardson was not seen in the media campaigning for Hector as Susana was in the Spears-Wood race. And Richardson was not seen forming PAC's to interfere in the primaries of the opposite political party

Richardson was careful with his political capital. Martinez not so much. She spent a bunch on Angie and lost. What effect that will have--the one Foley predicts or another--will play out over time. But we have never seen a prior Governor authorize her political advisor to openly unleash the kind of vituperative attacks on a fellow party member that Susana permitted in Clovis. They were so incendiary that the political adviser himself--McCleskey--became a campaign issue in the paid and unpaid media. That did not happen under Richardson or any other Governor in modern history.

Others have written---correctly--that this Governor has come to a fork in the road with one sign that says "compromise" and another that says "fight." She has chosen to fight and attempt to change the composition of the Legislature to her liking. She has an uphill climb, and if the same scorched earth tactics continue to be applied to those in her own party as well as the Dems, Foley, McCleskey, et al. will find that fear is a short-term strategy and that open rebellion is the danger.

THE FIGHT ROAD

The problem with taking the "fight" road is that when you lose, the opportunity to compromise may pass. That means measures dear to the Guv's heart such as eliminating driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants and social promotion will again end up in the legislative graveyard.

The Governor's agenda is limited but maybe it will grow as she matures politically. What then? In that case you have to stop campaigning and fighting and dealing with those who have the votes.

The primary election results signal no advancement of any particular agenda and the gridlock goes on. The Governor does not have the votes and the Dems can't override a veto. Divided government in Santa Fe has meant a 60 day legislative session that seemed like 60 years.

Governor Richardson's first term was an example of what can get done when you get a majority on the same page (and the money is flowing downhill into state coffers). But there was that second term when one party control led to widespread corruption.

Divided government can work if both sides agree that it is indeed divided. What we have now is a Governor and a Legislature who both think they run the show. Martinez thinks she can break the tie by literally taking over an independent branch of government, but her limited agenda is not nearly inspirational enough to prompt voters to follow her. That's why it is necessary for her to use searing (and overreaching) campaign tactics to try to get her way.

The people of Clovis laid down a marker for her that she has gone too far, but it seems it will take more than one spanking for the Fourth Floor (and the Fifth) to get the message.

HE'S PROUD
 Rep. Alcon
Grants area Dem State Rep. Eliseo Alcon is mighty proud of his Tuesday night primary win--and with good reason. You might call him a happy warrior. His campaign sends this:

Rep. Eliseo “Lee” Alcon (D-Cibola and McKinley) claimed the only decisive victory in Tuesday’s Primary against a controversial super-PAC whose efforts derailed various Democratic political campaigns across the state. Rep. Alcon defeated his Democratic opponent Billy Moore, who was backed by the “Reform New Mexico PAC” to secure a third term representing District 6...

“I am so proud we ran such a strong campaign in the face of such dirty politics. We overcame negative ads, theft and vandalism and I never said a disparaging word about my opponent or the Governor.” Alcon said.

Rep. Alcon’s...positive messaging...proved significantly stronger than the barrage of negative mail from Reform New Mexico, a super-PAC made up largely of oil and gas companies from Southeast New Mexico and who shares a billing address with Governor Martinez’s Susana PAC and the governor’s political advisor Jay McCleskey.

Representative Alcon defeated Billy Moore 1565 votes to 1274 votes, 55.1% to 44.9%, according to the New Mexico Secretary of State election results.

WHO'S ALONZO?

A supporter of Valencia County GOP State Rep. Alonzo Baldonado says far from being the worst campaign sign of the season, Alonzo's sign, featured on the Thursday blog, is part of a strategy, emails Tom Greer:

For those who are actually in the know, more than two years ago Alonzo's campaign started out with "Who's Alonzo?" well in advance of the election as place holders on his billboards. That created suspense, curiosity and name awareness and when he finally identified himself he was already well on his way to high name recognition and winning the election. 

Stay tuned  for more interesting strategy from District 8 State Rep Alonzo Baldonado,

Baldonado faces Dem Frank Otero in the November election.

ONE LAST LOOK

We'll sit down with longtime political reporter Stuart Dyson for one last look at Primary 2012 this Sunday morning at 10 on "Eye on New Mexico." If you can, pull up a chair and grab a cup and join us for some fun.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

We owe a lot of thanks to too many folks to mention here for their help this week in covering the 2012 primary. When an election like this one is somewhat below the radar of the mainstream media, the audience for our KANW-FM broadcasts rockets, as we are the sole source for wall-to-wall broadcast coverage replete with analysis and returns. We hope we rose to the occasion.

I do know that my heart started to race and my tongue too (probably too quickly) when the first early votes flashed across our computer screens. Even the eyes of old war horses like Lenton Malry and Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino light up at those first rush of returns.

And that is the wonderful part of politics, an art which has gone so astray with far too much money, too much negativity and, yes, too much coverage.

The dance of democracy is at heart still a joyous one--a celebration of freedom--even if you have to sometimes look pretty hard to find it.

Mark Bralley assisted with photos this week.

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Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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Could both the ABQ City Council and the Bernalillo County Commission soon fall under Republican control? It's much more of a possibility after Democratic Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham captured the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat.

If she wins against Republican Janice Arnold-Jones in November, she will leave the five member commission and her term will be filled by an appointee named by Republican Governor Susana Martinez. That would tip the panel in favor of the R's by 3 to 2. The ABQ City Council went 5 to 4 Republican after the 2009 city election. If the county were to file suit, it might be the first time that both panels have been controlled at the same time by the state's minority party. One Dem wag says: "Look for this Democratic-controlled commission to plow through a lot of business if it looks like Michelle is going to win."

Martin Heinrich got by Hector Balderas in his successful quest for the Dem US Senate nomination and his lead has grown a point since earlier returns and he leads Balderas to 59% to 41%--up one point.  A lot of observers were wondering if Heinrich would go to 60%. When he didn't, we said Balderas beat expectations a bit. Here's another view:

Let's put some reality into the Balderas "beat expectations" claims. I think it's Martin that beat expectations when you consider he's the only Anglo to beat a Hispanic in a statewide Democratic primary in the last 25 or so years, save for Diane Denish's s squeaker over Stephanie Gonzales by a margin of 51-49 in the '98 Democratic lieutenant governor's race. Stephanie was outspent by Diane 5-1 and barely ran a race. What's pretty amazing here is how Hector underperformed. That ought to be the story along with a poorly run campaign.

Balderas did not do himself any overt damage, so expect to see him entertain runs in 2014 for attorney general or the Dem nod for Guv. How will he fare? Much of it depends on his competition.

Will Governor Martinez get more bold with state labor unions in the aftermath of the unsuccessful recall of Wisconsin Guv Scott Walker? The AP reports:

In New Mexico, Walker's victory could embolden Republican Gov. Susana Martinez's effort to limit that state's collective bargaining law. Through legal action, she has won control of a board that oversees public worker contract disputes.

One Election Night loser was Clovis area District Attorney Matt Chandler. He went all in for Angie Spears who lost to rancher Pat woods in the GOP State Senate primary there. Spears had the full force of Governor Martinez's political operation behind her in the intra-party fight. Chandler openly campaigned for Spears.

The race divided the GOP and could impact Chandler's political ambitions. He might run in 2014 for the GOP nomination for attorney general as he did in 2010, but sealing up the cracked eggs left from the bitter primary will be his first order of business.

TV AFTER ALL

Well, look at this. TV execs have been worried sick over the state losing its "swing state" status in the presidential derby. It could mean millions in lost advertising. But today they're thanking the American Crossroads PAC for reviving their hopes. The conservative group has bought over $250,000 in TV airtime in ABQ and El Paso to advertise for GOP Senate candidate Heather Wilson. This buy doesn't mean we are going to see the kind of full scale air war here as we have in past cycles, but just in case, make space under the bed so you can crawl under there to avoid watching the mayhem (Here's the ad).

FIVE FOR FIVE
Fleisher
One of the political consultants celebrating the election results this week is veteran Democrat Mark Fleisher. He says his Victory Group went five for five in the primary:

We had a good night. We won with Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg and State Senators Phil Griego and Richard Martinez. Also, State Rep. Sheryl Williams-Stapleton and Karen Montoya in the ABQ Public Regulation Commission race. It was a very good night.

It was that victory of Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya over longtime ABQ State Rep. Al Park that most political pros called the upset of the night. Park spent over $150,000 but Montoya, with strong last minute attacks funded by late arriving matching funds for her publicly-financed campaign, changed the dynamic and Park ended up in third place.

Montoya will face attorney Chris Ocksrider in November.

PRETTY IMPORTANT

Why is the upcoming US Senate race between Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson so important? Try this:

New Mexico could lose up to 8,216 jobs and $150 million a year in defense contracts if federal budget cuts scheduled for January take effect, according to a new study.

Some might say Dem US Senator Tom Udall can pick up the slack and protect the billions flowing in here. He can do his part, but he is not a pork barrel Senator by character. It will be Wilson or Heinrich who must pick up the torch carried by Senator Domenici who left the Senate in 2009.

WORST SIGN?

One of the Valencia County Alligators sent this one in, calling it "the worst sign" of the 2012 primary because it only displays the candidate's first name.

So who is "Alonzo?" It's GOP State Rep. Alonzo Baldonado who was unopposed in his party primary Tuesday. He will face Democrat Frank Otero in November.

It's a bit offbeat for Alonzo not to include his last name on his sign. Maybe he didn't have room or felt any name with a "Z" in it is memorable...

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The big story of Primary Election 2012 wasn't necessarily who won and who lost, but the dismal turnout. Even a dead heat race for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat could not get them out of the bleacher seats and down on the field. Only about 24 percent of the registered Dems appeared to be stirred enough to make a decision between Michelle Lujan Grisham, Eric Griego and Marty Chavez. Statewide Dem turnout appears to be around that same 24% mark. GOP state turnout dipped even further to 21%.

Some blamed it on the lack of tight races other than that congressional contest and they had a point, but other political pros took it as a sign that people are fed up with politics and politicians and have a negative view of policies--yes, even our beloved La Politica.

Many, many more voters will be engaged for the main event in November, but this primary revealed that the parties and the politicos have a lot of work to do to make themselves relevant to the everyday lives of Mr. & Mrs. New Mexico.

BERNALILO COUNTY ELECTION RESULTS ARE HERE. RESULTS FOR THE ENTIRE STATE ARE HERE.

MICHELLE--DEM BELLE

Those who did care to vote in that too close to call ABQ congressional race gave Michelle Lujan Grisham what looked like a mandate after days of chatter about how tight the contest was. Three polls showed it to be a dead heat, so when she bested State Senator Eric Griego by five points--40% to 35% with Marty Chavez at 25%--the gap looked like the Grand Canyon, even if it was relatively close.

Michelle had the momentum going into the final two weeks and she had the muscle--major third party money from the women's group EMILY's list. In an after Midnight radio interview on our KANW-FM broadcast, Michelle did not hesitate to credit women for her victory, saying the "radical Republican attack on women's health care" was important in driving women to the polls for her.

Analyst John Wertheim noted that the Dem Party is now dominated by women. Griego led with them early, but in the polls they were the most undecided group going into the final stretch. They broke sharply for Michelle and she now wears the crown.

Longtime Dem pollster and analyst Harry Pavlides--who had given the edge to Michelle before the polls closed--explained that Griego's ballyhooed get-out-the-vote program fizzled:

Griego's GOTV did not work because the voters were not receptive because along with a good field operation, you need a candidate who can move voters. He wasn't articulate and over the years he has proven to be abrasive. She, on the other hand, was a fresh face who came on strong during the one and only TV debate when no one expected it and she did not make any major mistakes. The negative TV attacks made on Griego's driving record might have made a difference of a couple of  points. But Eric's field operation just did not move the numbers--even at the voting center at Bandelier Elementary in the heavily liberal SE Heights. The bottom line in following the results was that Griego's wins were not big and her wins were just big enough....

So is a congresswoman born? Lujan Grisham, currently a Bernalillo County Commissioner, is a nightmare candidate for Janice Arnold-Jones who was unopposed Tuesday for the GOP primary nod.  She could have drawn a sharper contrast with Griego. Now she faces another woman who showed an ability to appeal across her party. She might be able to do the same with the broader electorate.

Apart from that, there are the demographic trends of the district. National pundits already rank it "likely Dem" for the November election. 

THE SENATE
Wilson
The race for the nominations for the US Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Bingaman were as anticlimatic as everyone expected. ABQ Rep. Martin Heinrich took down State Auditor Hector Balderas on a 58% to 42% vote and former ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson easily dispatched Greg Sowards of Las Cruces. She trounced him 70% to 30%. That Balderas performance was a bit better than expectations. GOP pollster and analyst Bruce Donisthorpe explained it this way:

Heinrich had broad support across the state. He won on the shoulders of a huge victory in ABQ. Hector benefited from the sole TV debate held a couple of days before the election because it closed the stature gap and helped him with those who voted on Election Day....

We interviewed both Wilson and Heinrich following their big wins and both took pot shots at one another. Surprise!

Heinrich starts the race as a slight favorite because the state is majority Dem and Wilson has been unable to break out of the low 40's in the early polling. She has trailed Heinrich in all the recent polls, but she has the ability--and the money--to win it.

MARTINEZ TOLD NO

Governor Martinez got a black eye Tuesday night courtesy of Clovis rancher Pat Woods who handily beat Angie Spears--52% to 45% (a third candidate who had dropped out got 3%) in the most prominent legislative battle of the evening. Martinez, stretching the gubernatorial envelope, not only endorsed Angie, she made a personal campaign appearance for her and allowed her chief political operative, Jay McCleskey, to pull out all the stops and run a slash and burn campaign against Woods. It backfired, as voters sent a message that while they may like Susana--they like her as Governor--not as the decider of who will represent them in Santa Fe. Donisthorpe came with this:

This race was fought hard in Clovis and Woods did very well there. That closed it out. People decided they can support their friends and neighbors despite outside interference. You are always cautioned in politics to pick your fights very carefully. If they had a do over on this one they would think long and hard before doing it again.

The loss had implications well beyond the results of the race. A lot of Republicans gave money to the Govenror's SusanaPAC envisioning that she would used that money to take out Democrats, not Replications. They wondered why the money was being spent on a primary race when it could be used later to help the GOP take back the state House.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff said the Woods-Spears contest would not have much impact on the Governor when it comes to her dealings with the Legislature--that Woods would vote with the Guv on all the major issues. Perhaps, but GOP consultant Bob Cornelius says he wants to see how Republican legislative leaders--particularly Senate Minority Leader Stu Ingle of the east side--play it. Ingle was rumored to also be in McCleskey's sight for a primary challenge that never materialized.

Most important, several of our analysts agreed on the most substantial development that could happen as a result of the Spears loss. It is not about senators complying with Martinez's legislative agenda, it is now about McCleskey who became a public issue via paid and free media in the Woods-Spears race.

If the Governor loses any confidence in McCleskey--easily the most influential advisor to a Governor in recent memory--because of lost political battles, she could dilute his power and broaden her circle. That could result in a change in government polices and what legislation she pursued with the Legislature. After all, they don't call Jay "The Fifth Floor" for nothing.

But former prosecutor Martinez has shown that she loves a good fight--win or lose. It would be surprising to see her move against McCleskey--unless, of course, her own popularity starts to take a hit.

LEGISLATIVE ACTION
On the KANW Air
My KANW analysts, including State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and former NM Democratic Party Chairman John Wertheim and the aforementioned Cornelius, did not see any major change in the balance of power in the Legislature as a result of the primary. They said we will have to wait until November to see if the R's can pick up any House seats and take over the chamber which now is almost evenly divided. The Governor had a big loss in Clovis, but the Reform NMPAC that was closely linked to her put some points on the board, when Santa Fe Mayor David Coss was upset by Carl Trujillo for the Dem nod for the state House seat being vacated by House Speaker Ben Lujan. Trujillo rejected the help, but now that he is going to the Roundhouse (there is no R running in the district) he will be closely watched to see if he plays cozy with Susana.

But there was mostly give and take in the legislative battles and most old hands recognize the recipe for gridlock when they see it. That's what we have had in Santa Fe for two years and that's what we are going to have for two more--despite Susana and Jay's best efforts to take over the world as we know it.

For example, you could argue that Dem Michael Padilla who won the nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Eric Griego will be a more moderate voice than Eric (No R is running). True, but then Jacob Candelaria will be going to Santa Fe to replace outgoing Senator Bernadette Chavez, a Dem who often has conservative instincts. Candelaria does not.

Dem Senator David Ulibarri was defeated in western New Mexico by either attorney Maxine Velasquez or Clemente Sanchez. Only three votes separated them for first place. Either of them would be more liberal than Ulibarri. The winner, however, will have to get past Vickie Perea, a particularly tough GOP contender.

Senator Lynda Lovejoy of NW New Mexico lost her seat to Jemez Pueblo's' Bennie Shendo Jr. He is not expected to vote much differently than Lynda (No R is running).

Still, Senator Ortiz y Pino looked at his glass as half empty because while the Guv did not advance her cause a whole lot, either did his side. He came with this analysis of the ReformNM PAC, financed by big oil and with the same address listed as the Guv's SusanaPAC:

...The Governor's Super PAC, Reform New Mexico Now, sent out mailers blasting candidates in at least five races. The only incumbent Democrat that RNMN targeted was Grants area State Rep. Eliseo Alcon, who won handily anyway and is now chomping at the bit to work against her agenda in the next session.

But the other four races worked out well for the Governor. She sent out negative material against the progressive challengers to Senators John Arthur Smith and Phil Griego, both of whom won Tuesday night. And she sent out negative material on Rep. Eleanor Chavez and Santa Fe Mayor David Coss, progressive candidates in two races for open seats and both of them lost. So RNMN has got to consider its money well-spent. After all, they blocked four progressives...

True enough. But blocking is not scoring. Which leads to the current Santa Fe slogan, "Let the Standstill Continue"

PARK'S PLACE

Al Park may have suffered the most damaging result of any politician in the state on Primary Election Night. He spent well over $150,000 on the Dem nomination for the ABQ area Public Regulation Commission seat and lost. He was ahead most of the evening, but as results rolled in around 11 PM he began falling behind--and more behind. Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya gave us our big upset of the evening as she defeated Park who suffered more humiliation when he finished third behind Cynthia Hall.

We broke the story of Al's three person law firm taking in $600,000 in a state risk management contract from the Republican administration over the course of only ten months and it was all down hill from there. Montoya, aided by last minute matching funds for her publicly-financed campaign, put a spot on the air comparing Park to disgraced former PRC Commissioner Jerome Block, Jr. and it worked.

Park's political career may have soared if he had won, but his decline actually began when he sided with the Guv on repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, That was the first sign that Al was moving away from the liberal wing of his party--the wing that nominates.

A TOUCH OF HISTORY

History was made on ABQ's west side last night. Jacob Candelaria, 25, ensured that he will became the first openly gay male elected to the state Senate and possibly its youngest member ever. He trounced primary foe Carlos Villanueva. There is no Republican running for the seat so Candelaria will get a four year term and replace Senator Bernadette Sanchez who did not seek reelection.

Candelaria, who works on equality issues professionally, did not see his sexual preference make much of a difference in the contest. During the course of the campaign President Obama announced that he now supports gay marriage.

Obama's announcement and Canadelaria's election show how an issue that used to pack so much political punch is now fast becoming moot.

By the way, Candelaria is much more liberal than Senator Sanchez who on occasion showed some sympathies toward GOP Governor Martinez.
 
THE BOTTOM LINES

GOP pollster Donisthorpe made a bold call that Eric Griego would win the Dem nod for the ABQ congressional seat. When he didn't, we asked Bruce what went wrong. "We Republicans have some things to learn about these Democrats," He joked....

In fairness, Bruce's May 22 poll for this site was spot on, showing a dead heat in the ABQ congressional race but he says he overestimated the effectiveness of Griego's ground operation...

Marty Chavez took his loss graciously, appearing on our radio show to take his lumps. Will we ever seem him run again? He is too much of a pro to rule it out, but we would not bet that we will see him back on the ballot....

All three congressional campaign managers went unheralded during the campaign but Alan Packman for Chavez, Ed Yoon for Griego and Dominic Gabello did bang-up jobs for their candidates. Even if that means being good at being negative...

Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver had a pretty good night managing the new way of voting--69 early vote centers instead of 180 voting sites. The vote count was slowed a bit but the clerk was not defensive when offered some constructive criticism. She said she is going to do some tinkering to improve on the speed of the vote-counting for the presidential election. Toulouse Oliver has slowly but surely improved the election performance of the clerk's office from the epic disasters of the past...

Thanks to all of those who contributed to and listened to our KANW 89.1 FM broadcast. We signed off about 1:10 AM and are finishing the blog up at about 5 AM...Wonder if there's an Election Night party still going on?.....

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Sen. Ortiz y Pino
It's just about all over but the counting, and count we will. Tonight.

We're looking forward to an exciting primary Election Night and pleased to be able to bring you the very latest results and expert analysis from our traditional perch at KANW 89.1 FM in Albuquerque. The station is heard throughout ABQ and north central New Mexico. If you're outside the listening area, join us at the KANW web site where the program will be streamed.

CLICK HERE FOR LIVE CONTINUOUS ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE BEGINNING AT 6:30 PM MOUNTAIN TIME.

This is our 24th consecutive year of broadcasting all New Mexico primary and general elections on KANW, and we've got some old hands and some new ones that will keep you the most informed as well as entertained.

THE E-NITE TEAM
John Wertheim
State Senator Jerry Oritz y Pino is an influential liberal lawmaker from Albuquerque. He has eyes on all the key state Senate primaries--both Dem and R--and will have his usual provocative insights into the state of La Politica and the meaning of the election.

Ortiz y Pino serves on the powerful state Senate Finance Committee. He is an accomplished opinion writer whose work has appeared in a wide variety of publications.

John Wertheim is a former chairman of the New Mexico Democratic Party and a veteran of our KANW round table. (He remembers well our all-nighter in 2000 when Bush and Gore battled it out).

John, an attorney form a New Mexico pioneer family, is known for his in-depth knowledge of all aspects of state politics and the ability to make it understandable. He twice sought (and won once) the ABQ Dem congressional nomination. With that race so prominent this year, his expertise will be especially valuable.

THE R BANNER
Bob Cornelius
Bob Cornelius, 32 is a new generation Republican who runs the political consulting firm 90 degrees. Bob is a native of Lea County and will be especially tuned in on that east side GOP State Senate primary between Angie Spears and Pat Woods that has drawn statewide interest.

He is a student of the Legislature and the history of the NM GOP who sought the GOP land commissioner nomination and has worked with former GOP Public Regulation Commissioner David King.

You already know about Bruce Donisthorpe, 52, a veteran GOP federal lobbyist and congressional and gubernatorial aide, who also is a polling expert. He conducted a key  survey for this site May 22 revealing that the ABQ Dem congressional race was a dead heat. Bruce will be back for his eighth year with us on the mighty KANW. If anyone can spot a trend in politics, it's Bruce. He'll be at your service all night on Election Night.

We're pleased to report that Lenton Malry, the first black state legislator in state history, a former Democratic Bernalillo County Commissioner and a stalwart of state politics, will be back with us. He was on the original KANW round table panel in 1988 and has been with us for every primary and general election since then. He will bring with him a 50 year perspective on government and politics--as well as early results from his SE ABQ neighborhood. Thanks for that, Lenton.

Our coverage will also be enhanced by Steve Cabiedes, whose precinct level expertise is unmatched and always comes in handy. Veteran Dem pollster Harry Pavlides will pinpoint geographic trends in the ABQ congressional race and there will be a large number of other contributors helping to make this coverage a reality.

As for me, I will anchor the coverage as I have for these many years at KANW and before that for other state media outlets, beginning in 1974. I'm prepared for anything--including one of those nights when they forget to order the pizza.

OUR SPONSORS

Thanks much to our sponsors of this year's radio coverage. They make it all possible:

 PNM, the Albuquerque Teacher's Federation, JD Bullington Government Relations, The Garrity Group (public relations) and the law firm of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP.

PREGAME PREDICTIONS

Ask who is going to win today's ABQ Dem congressional nomination and you are going to get some sharply divided opinions. We did on our KANW pre-game show Monday afternoon. Dem Jerry Ortiz y Pino gives Eric Griego "the edge." Former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim says the same of Michelle Lujan Grisham and capitol newsman Rob Nikolewski says in a very low turnout election you have to "keep your eye on Marty Chavez." Tonight will tell the tale and it promises to be exciting--and a surprise to many--no matter who the winner.

EICHENBERG TO LEAVE SENATE

ABQ Dem State Senator Tim Eichenberg drops an Election Day exclusive onto New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. He says after today's primary in which he is running unopposed, he will withdraw from the race and let the Bernalillo County Democratic Party Central Committee name a replacement candidate.

Eichenberg will leave the Senate at the end of the year, saying pressing health concerns of his two brothers (one has cancer) and his elderly mother are the motivating factors. He said he notified the Senate leadership several months ago of his intentions and that a recent news article mentioning him in connection with an FBI inquiry into the offices of Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya had nothing to do with his decision to leave after one term.

"In 40 years of public service I have done nothing that merits an investigation by any law enforcement agency and that stands today.. I'm proud of that," declared Eichenberg who was elected Bernalillo County Treasurer back in '74 and to the Senate in 2008.

"Besides my wife, my mother is my best friend. She is 87 and needs my attention as do my two brothers. I am thankful to the people of the district for placing their trust in me. It has been a great experience and I hope I have made a difference for the better. I still plan to serve the community on the flood authority board, but my Senate career is at an end. I will not endorse any of the Democrats who are working to succeed me, but I wish them all the best..." He said.

Who will replace the moderate Eichenberg and then face off with Diane Snyder, the GOP senator who Eichenberg ousted four years ago and who will win the GOP nod tonight? There are at least four candidates lining up central committee support, including attorney and former state elections bureau chief Daniel Ivey Soto. Vanessa Alarid, a lobbyist who is a former executive director of the state Dems is also interested.

The district appears to lean Dem since Eichenberg took it. Snyder's negatives are high, but without an incumbent to run against, this does give her an opportunity.

PARTYING WITH JANICE

The R's are having no official party for the primary tonight. There just isn't that much action, But ABQ GOP congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones will fill in the gap by hosting an Election Night bash. Says Janice's campaign:

Former State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, is hosting an event for ALL Republican candidates to watch the Primary Election returns. Candidates, staff, volunteers and supporters of all Republican campaigns are welcome to join...The event will be held at the Crowne Plaza on University and Menaul starting at 6 PM in the Garden Room. The campaign has arranged for TVs and Internet access for candidates and campaign staff to check the results of their races. Food and drinks will be available. Candidates attending the event will be given a brief period of time to speak. Media will be present...Call her campaign office between between 9 AM and 1 PM Tuesday to RSVP.

Well, hopefully Janice will have a good time tonight as she secures the GOP congressional nomination because the general election is going to be anything but a party for her. The Cook Political Report, among other pundits, ranks the ABQ seat "likely Democrat."

LEGISLATIVE IMPACT

Newman Milan Simonich comes with a piece on the impact of today's election on the 112 member state Legislature:

Widespread change is a sure bet in the New Mexico Legislature this year. No matter what happens in Tuesday’s primary election, at least 21 of the 112 legislative seats will change hands. Nine of 42 senators are leaving office of their own accord at year’s end. Twelve members of the House of Representatives also are giving up their seats, but six of them hope to remain in the Legislature as senators. In addition, one incumbent member of the House is sure to be ousted in Tuesday’s primary. That is because Reps. Bob Wooley and Dennis Kintigh of Roswell are matched against one another in the District 66 Republican primary.

DATELINE LAS CRUCES

Low voter turnout across the state. From Dona Ana County from KFOX-TV:

Only 3,504 people have cast their ballots through early voting out of around 110,000 registered voters. Primaries usually have a lower turnout than general elections but Dona Ana County Clerk Lynn Ellins said this is even worse than usual. "These are especially low because there's nothing at the top of the ticket," Ellins said.

Here are the nearly final early voting numbers for Bernalillo County from Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver:

25,859 total early voters

Early Voters; 15,677 DEMS; 10,182 REPS

Absentee Numbers--Mailed out a Total of 9,282 Absentee Ballots. Of those, we've received 5,587 or 60%.

DEMS –Total Mailed: 5567; Returned: 3576 (64%)

REPS –Total Mailed: 3715; Returned: 2011 (54%)

We're headed for quite a low turnout in big Bernalillo. There are about 190,000 registered Dems eligible to vote.

OBAMA VS. ROMNEY

It's little noticed but also on today's ballot is the presidential primary. Obama is unopposed and Romney has the nomination locked up. No other R's on the ballot are expected to win enough popular votes that would give them a delegate to the national GOP convention, but we'll watch out for it.

Romney did not make it to New Mexico for a pro forma visit and that has the Obama campaign coming with this:

There will be a press conference today at the airport. To our knowledge, it’s the first time a GOP presidential candidate has skipped over a visit to New Mexico. Romney has instead decided to spend the day at a fundraiser in Texas.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In our first draft Monday we posted that state House candidate Billy Moore is a Native American. He is not...We also had the first name of Maxine Velasquez wrong and we said that former east side state Senator Johnny Morrow was a Republican. He was a Democrat. And we're informed that former State Rep. Robert Aragon, who has been an ardent backer of Gov. Martinez and who we identified as a Dem, is now a Republican....

That's it for now. See you tonight on KANW 89.1 FM for New Mexico's best election coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. or at KANW.COM for the live stream.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
   
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

It's Election Eve in New Mexico and that means it's time for the last round of analysis and predictions at our traditional round table at KANW 89.1 FM. That's at 5 p.m. today (The table really is kind of round).

On Tuesday night--Primary Election Night--we return to the same microphones beginning at 6:30 p.m. to call the results and provide the most in-depth analysis in the state.

This marks our 24th consecutive year in the broadcast booth on election nights for the public radio station. We hope to have you with us for all the excitement and final vote tallies.

Our radio programs will also be streamed from the KANW web site so if you're outside the ABQ/Santa Fe listening area, you can join us at 5 p.m. today by Clicking Here and again tomorrow night at 6:30 p.m.

We have an expert panel lined up for today's pre-game show. Former NM Democratic Party Chairman John Wertheim, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and former ABQ City Councilor Miguel Gomez will be joined by Republican consultant Bob Cornelius and journalist Rob Nikolewski of Capitol Report New Mexico in Santa Fe.

These analysts are all known for their "tell it like it is" approach to state politics. As a result their opinions are sought after from both sides of the political aisle. It's a broadcast at 5 p.m. today you won't want to miss.

OUR SPONSORS

Thanks much to our sponsors of this year's radio coverage. They make it all possible:

 PNM, the Albuquerque Teacher's Federation, JD Bullington Government Affairs, The Garrity Group (public relations) and the law firm of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP.

FIRST BIG PREDICTION
Donisthorpe
You don't have to wait until 5 p.m. today for a major prediction. Veteran Republican analyst and pollster Bruce Donisthorpe of Manzano Strategies comes with an Election Eve thunder maker:

Joe, I am calling the race for the ABQ Democratic congressional nomination for Eric Griego. After the party's pre-primary convention in March, you quoted me as saying, "It is Griego's to lose." I am still of that view. Based on the polling we did for your blog on May 22 and my turnout model for this election, I believe Griego will emerge as the nominee tomorrow night.

This will be due to his ability to rally the large liberal base in the party and little to do with the last minute negative fireworks. That will have an impact, but the overall lay of the land points to a Griego nomination.

Bully for you, Bruce. If you're right, you'll be placed upon a polling pedestal for all to praise. If you're wrong, look out for the rotten eggs and tomatoes while you're up there.

Donisthorpe's prediction is significant because he has polled for us (and other clients) for over five years, using automatic phone technology combined with excellent voter lists and scientific methodology.

He nailed the 2008 congressional race, with his poll showing Martin Heinrich heading for a big victory over Republican Darren White. In 2010, he was the first public pollster to break the news that Susana Martinez had pulled ahead of Allen Weh and would be that year's Guv nominee.

His May 22 poll for us in this year's Dem congressional race had Griego in a statistical dead-heat with Michelle Lujan Grisham. Marty Chavez was lagging. Days later the ABQ Journal poll--conducted by the estimable Brian Sanderoff--came with the same outcome--a dead heat.

Donisthorpe, who was a top aide to Republican NM Congressman Joe Skeen and GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers, will be an on-air contributor on KANW tomorrow night, offering returns and analysis in key races across the state.

It's another great reason to be with us on the radio for Primary Election Night 2012.

THE COSS CASE

Santa Fe Mayor Dave Coss appears to have gotten a big break in his battle with Carl Trujillo for the Dem nomination for the Santa Fe area state House seat being vacated by Speaker Ben Lujan. But it was not anything Coss did.

The new Reform New Mexico Now super PAC is obviously formed to help Governor Martinez and  is funded primarily by oil companies based in Artesia. One TV newser calls it the "wild step-sister of SusanaPac." The same oil companies have also given money to SusanaPAC, run by Martinez svengali Jay McCleskey. The PAC, with a cash kitty of $205,000 sent out a mailer in support of Trujillo, saying he will be a reformer of public schools.

Trujillo has no control over the group, but the fact that Susana is now being associated with his campaign may doom him. Coss supporters are going for a final-hours kill, with Santa Fe State Rep. Brian Egolf among those leading the charge:

Governor Martinez...is taking unprecedented steps to defeat (Coss)...We need David Coss in the legislature to make sure we don't give the governor a blank check. Some of the governor's Big Oil campaign backers just endorsed Carl Trujillo. The Big Oil front group--Reform New Mexico Now PAC--is funded by the same oil companies that are working to roll back our most important air and water protections. The governor's Big Oil cronies would rather see Carl Trujillo in office, not David Coss. We can't afford to give Susana Martinez a rubber stamp legislature...

This might be just the tonic Coss needed. He's been struggling because of concerns over whether he can be effective as both Santa Fe's part-time Mayor and as a legislator.

Coss and a slew of other Dem candidates who saw the PAC get involved in their campaigns filed an ethics complaint with the AG and Sec. of State to get as much juice out of this late news as possible.

Eyebrows have also been raised over the role of Speaker Ben Lujan's son in the race. Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan has given money and gone door to door for Coss in what has looked to some like a revenge move. Trujillo nearly beat Lujan's father in the 2010 Dem primary.

Trujillo tried to get the monkey off his back with this Sunday statement:

Sometimes we get support from organizations who may have agendas that are likely to be at odds with our interests...Reform New Mexico.. sent out their mailers without our involvement or approval, and we don’t know their reasons. Perhaps they have their own genuine, legitimate concerns about Mr. Coss, because while David Coss and I, as fellow Democrats, may not be that far apart in our specific stands on specific issues, we seem to have very different views about the political process when it comes to fairness, openness and transparency.

Trujillo, who was not far behind Coss in insider polling recently, may have been shot in the foot at the last minute by Susana's groupies. He had established himself as an independent Dem, calling Coss and Lujan "the machine." But if this last minute development means he's perceived as an agent for the R's who might help tip the balance of power in the House, Trujillo may be in for another close call Tuesday night, but not a space in the winner's circle.

OILING IT UP

The oil-financed PAC group is also playing in the Dem primary of conservative Senator John Arthur Smith of Deming. He faces a challenge from retired PNM electrician Larry Martinez of Lordsburg. The oil super PAC's radio ad praises Smith for being an eduction reformer, while attacking Martinez for being a captive of the education unions.

Smith, chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, might want to say to the oil-financed PAC: "Don't do me any favors."

Smith is expected to win his primary and the general election and will face a Senate full of progressives as well as some moderates who have grown weary of his non-stop conservatism even as the public indicates it wants a somewhat more activist agenda from Santa Fe. This backing from a PAC associated with Martinez is not going to help him calm down segments of of the Senate caucus.

If the oil-backed group is trying to do Susana's dirty work in Dem races so she can keep her fingerprints off of them and not have Dem voters know what she's up to, all we can say is that we've spotted the elephant in the room---and it looks just like Susana Martinez.

LATE BREAKING AND EXCLUSIVE

Here are what the top sources in New Mexico politics are saying on key Dem Senate races this Primary election eve:

--State Senator David Ulibarri looks like a goner. Attorney Maxine Velasquez is positioned for the win.

--State Rep. Eliseo Alcon is in trouble. Challenger Billy Moore could pick him off

---State Sen. Lynda Lovejoy is getting a tough challenge from Bennie Shendo. It could tip either way

--State Senators John Arthur Smith, Pete Campos and Richard Martinez are appearing safe from their primary challengers

--State Senator Phil Griego's race has tightened at the end. A close race is expected.

--Rep. Bill O'Neill will coast to a primary victory in ABQ's North Valley

No guarantees, but that's what the top guns say it looks like.

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We take advertising from political candidates, but we don't donate to them. We remind you of that because when we put predictions and the like up, we sometimes get asked whether we have donated. We don't.

SHOWDOWN IN CLOVIS

The Santa Fe Wall-Leaners, Alligators and Insiders are predicting that Governor Martinez may very well suffer a serious political setback tomorrow night.

They see Clovis rancher Pat Woods--publicly opposed by Martinez--as squeaking by Martinez-supported Angie Spears in the GOP primary for the state Senate seat held by retiring Sen. Clint Harden. They are basing their outlook in part on the brutal campaigns, but mostly on history. One of them at the Capitol says:

Joe, Look at the history of this district.  For decades it has been represented by independent-minded senatos. Democrat Johnny Morrow had it then Republicans Pat Lyons and now Clint Harden. All of them have been east siders with a mind of their own. Woods follows in that tradition, Spears does not because of her backing by Martinez and the go-for-the-jugular campaign that her political advisers have run.

That's one of the more persuasive arguments we've heard in favor of Woods, but the attacks on him have been absolutely brutal and continue until the last minute. Suspense is the final adjective to describe the Showdown in Clovis. No one will be sure until tomorrow night.

(We have special staffing in place to cover the Showdown in Clovis).

THE POWER AND THE MIGHT

All the power and might of the New Mexican governorship has been corralled by Jay McCleksey in an effort to avoid the first major political embarrassment for the popular Republican Governor.

For example, there is this flyer condemning rancher Woods for taking $1.7 million in  federal agricultural subsidies. But this might be the overreach of overreaches in the agriculture-heavy east side. A Woods supporter comes with the rebuttal:

Good luck, Governor,  on getting support from the agricultural community again. Agriculture is a huge part of New Mexico’s economy and the government subsidies that farmers collect go right into that economy. They also pay taxes. The nimrods who put this mailer together don’t know much when they say that Pat will promote even more subsides. Farm subsidies are a federal program authorized by the US Congress.  

How are these subsidies any different from federal funds that come into this state for the national labs and military bases? For that matter, how are they different from all the money that Jay McCleskey takes out of Susana PAC?

Looking at the PAC financial report since June 2011, I add up close to $150,000 paid directly to McCleskey. Then there is the money he gets by donating PAC funds to candidates. He then works as their consultant and gets that money and more back into his business...

Like we said, this campaign has been absolutely brutal and there is no way Susana gains anything--even if Angie wins tomorrow night.

Insiders report that Angie was emotional a recent forum where she was accused of mud slinging. You have to feel for her. She and her family are well-respected members of the community and she could never have anticipated she would become the focal point of one the most contested GOP senate primaries in modern history. (A Spears supporter says she was peppered with questions, but was not emotional).

This gubernatorial decision to go so overboard in a GOP primary will be long-remembered as one of the great overreaches in state politics. How could Susana let Jay go after the federal agricultural subsides?

And when has a Guv's top political aide become a statewide issue? And Jay is. Woods--in his own version of the overreach--has bought time on the statewide airwaves of KRQE-TV to run his anti-McCleskey TV ad. All this for a GOP primary in Clovis that will attract less than 5,000 voters. Clearly, Pat Woods is determined to take down McCleskey as much as he is Spears--even if he dies trying.
 
Folks, things are so stirred up in Clovis, an F-5 tornado out there couldn't compete.

KEY RACES

The Showdown in Clovis and other key legislative primaries from around the state, courtesy of newsman Milan Simonich. And The AP comes with this legislative primary preview.

SO MUCH MORE

So much to cover now and so little time. Readers help out as in this dispatch from an Alligator who points out that Clovis is far from the only GOP primary race where intra-party warfare is going on. They tune in on one that has been rarely mentioned:

...It's not only going on in Clovis, it's also going on in the Albuquerque area. The same "outside forces" working in Clovis recruited and are helping to fund a primary opponent against ABQ GOP west side State Rep. Tom Anderson.  

This "outside force" also has sent out hit pieces about Tom. And the "outside force" has ensured that Tom is not able to raise the necessary funds to respond...Tom's opponent--Peggy Muller Aragon--is the wife of ABQ attorney Robert Aragon who Martinez appointed to the state Board of Finance.

Robert Aragon, the son of former Dem State Rep. Bennie Aragon, is a former Dem, ( We're told he changed his registration to Republican earlier this year). He's been a longtime supporter of Republican Martinez and was removed as a Dem Party ward chairman because of his GOP politics.

And was that Dominic Aragon we saw as one of the officers of the now hyper-controversial Reform NM Now PAC? Sure was. Dominic is the nephew of Robert. A few years ago he ran in the Dem primary for the state House seat now held by Rep. Moe Maestas. Dominic is still calling himself a Democrat, but it is Uncle Robert calling the shots for his nephew.

GETTING SLOPPY?

Sometimes it's because you are juggling too many balls. Sometimes it's because the money and power make you sloppy. You be the judge of this one:

Reform New Mexico Now has the same address on Uptown Boulevard in Albuquerque used by Martinez's Susana PAC, as well as the governor's political adviser, Jay McCleskey. 

A Dem campaign operative sends this list of candidates they say are being supported in the primary by Reform NM Now PAC:

RNMN has sent out mailers in at least five Democratic primary elections (candidates supported by McCleskey/Martinez are in bold):

David Coss vs. Carl Trujillo  in northern Santa Fe County
Jack Sullivan vs. Phil Griego Santa Fe County, Parts of Bernalillo, San Miguel, Lincoln, Torrance
Larry Martinez vs. John Arthur Smith
Genevieve Jackson vs. George Munoz
Eliseo Alcon vs. Billy Moore
Eleanor Chavez vs. James Taylor and Michael Padilla in Bern CO

So the super PAC--linked to Susana and Jay--is also helping Democrats? But the Guv's operatives are attacking Republican Pat Woods in Clovis for his past donations to Dem candidates? What's wrong
with that picture.

BALDERAS VS. HEINRICH

Lovefest doesn't even begin to describe it. Last night's one and only TV debate between Dem US Senate contenders Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas had the two young stars of their party acting like they were out on a first date--they were so polite to each other that they almost crossed the line to obsequious. But in the end they both pretty much vindicated themselves when it comes to logic, reasoning and the intellectual ability to serve in the US Senate.

Self-described underdog Balderas gained just by being on the same KOAT debate stage with the ABQ congressman. There was no deer in the headlights demeanor from the Wagon Mound native, but a calm aura of a...well....state auditor.

Heinrich was his usual self--knowledgable and robotic. He is the presumed winner of tomorrow; night's primary, but he has room to improve before he faces off with presumed GOP Senate nominee Heather Wilson. But Wilson is prone to over emoting and the mechanical Heinrich should match up well. Also, unlike other Wilson opponents, he will not be taken out on TV for being ill-informed or fearful.

On the issues, Hector and Martin hit the standard Dem themes--protect Social Security and Medicare, improve education, etc.  While hardly every disagreeing with one another, they frequently bashed Wilson before the statewide audience--no doubt to the delight of Dems on both sides of this primary.

The only moment of tension came when a questioner tried to throw Heinrich off his game on funding for the national labs and state defense bases. Which would he cut if forced to make a choice? Heinrich hung tough saying this was a "false choice" and that he was going to fight for the federal funding and work to have the labs pursue future missions that were worthy of receiving the funding.

That's the right answer for a state increasingly nervous about possible big fed budget cuts, but Wilson was surely taking notes as it was President Obama's budget that recently caused layoffs at Los Alamos national labs.

From the beginning Balderas has been hamstrung by his ambitions for future office. He has not attacked Heinrich for fear of losing and knocking himself permanently off the political stage. His performance last night insures that Heinrich--if elected to the Senate--is not going to hold a grudge, but it also means Balderas basically wrote off any chance of winning. That will be used against him in future runs in the Dem Party when his rivals are sure to say they "will fight harder" than Hector.

But Balderas, an attorney and 38, has come a long way from his nervous Nellie look when he was thrust into the race for state auditor six years ago. He has done his homework and any school teacher will tell you that usually means higher grades.

Like we said, Heinrich, 40, did well but this is a large load being placed on the shoulders of a two-term congressman. Voters generally seem to like the first look they have taken of him, but his
presence last night suggested that voters will want to take a longer, deeper look before giving their final blessing. That's why in this Demorcatic state Heather Wilson still lives.

The full one hour debate is here

ANOTHER TAKE

Reader Joe Campos came with a take on the debate that was not without support in its caustic outlook:

Must have been one of the most boring debates! Martin referred to his opponent as "Hector the Auditor" and Hector kept on using the word "appalling." Did you get anything else out of this debate?

SOWARDS TV

Greg Sowards, the gadfly conservative from Las Cruces challenging former ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, comes with last-minute TV attacking her for--among other things--her 2008 vote to bail out the banks.

If Sowards had gone on the tube for a couple of weeks instead of a couple of days, we might have had an interesting race. As it is, Wilson is polling at 66% in the ABQ Journal poll. She will have some damage to clean up Wednesday morning, but this primary season has been somewhat of a gift for Wilson who gets squeamish when having to deal with the radical fringe of the GOP.

PRC CASH COWS

A late court ruling gave publicly financed ABQ Dem Public Regulation Commission candidates Karen Montoya and Cynthia Hall an extra $60,000 in matching funds to spend. That's in addition to the $30,000 they received when they qualified for public funding, They are flooding the airwaves with last minute TV and radio in an effort to overtake Al Park, who has spent a whopping $150,000 on the contest. He did not take public funding. Here's one of Montoya's TV spots hitting Park, courtesy of the matching funds. Will the last minute money be enough for Montoya--who was running second to Park in our May 22 poll--to pull an upset?

WIENER WORLD

Any broadcaster worth his salt is pulling for a good showing for GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Wiener on Primary Election Night. Cold you imagine if Wiener, under siege since he was caught up in a sex "scandal" last month, actually comes close or even wins his primary challenge over Lonnie Talbert? Talk about a ratings grabber.

Realistically, Wiener was probably taken out when the media sensationalized that photo of Wiener surrounded by a bevy of Phillipino beauties, with the implication that they were hookers in the notorious red light district that was in the area Wiener was visiting. He says he was there with his fiancee. It was a knuckle headed move by the colorful and controversial Wiener, but he fights on--hoping to give all of us on radio and TV something to talk about tomorrow.

And maybe he's on to a little something,

His primary opponent for the mainly NE Heights commission seat is businessman Lonnie Talbert who mailed the flyer posted here (click to enlarge) but had to apologize for wrongfully attacking Wiener. The ABQ Journal printed Talbert's retreat over his statement that Wiener voted in 2008 to buy a downtown ABQ office building and wasted taxpayers money in the process. The problem? Wiener was not even on the commission at the time.

Wiener calls it "outrageous" that he was wronged in a last-minute mailer, but he doesn't stop there. He says that Talbert has made his personal life an issue by running the sensational headlines from Wiener's Philippines excursion in his campaign lit. He says what is good for the Wiener is good for the Talbert. Here he is firing away:

Lonnie Talbert went to court on Jan 31st, 2012  to modify his Child Support Payment agreement.On that date he made a pleading (matter of Public Record) stating that he was unemployed (that he had been "laid off") and asked to have his child support lowered. Only weeks later he opened a campaign account and deposited $50,000 of his own money into this race. he is trying to BUY this election using $50,000 of his own money--instead of taking care of his child support from his first failed marriage!

Wiener sent court documents showing that Talbert had indeed asked for a reduction in child support.

Wiener also points out what he calls Talbert's "job-hopping in the past dozen years, listing eight jobs Talbert has had since Dec. 2001. His latest position is listed by Wiener as a "business development action coach."

No Dem is running for the seat so the winner of the GOP primary goes on the commission. And it seems even if Wiener's political days end up being over, Lonnie Talbert has the potential to be almost as colorful--and maybe controversial.

A CANDIDATE PLEA

And the email keeps coming, some with an air of desperation. Santa Fe County Commissioner and northern Democratic Public Regulation Commission candidate Virginia Vigil, writes:

Please review the email that summarizes a robo call that came from a phone number 505.216.6900.  I also received this call! The robo call falsely states if one selects me for the PRC, that I supported Jim Hall, a Republican for the state legislature in Los Alamos. As you know, County Commission's submit a replacement for Legislators when there is a vacancy.  Jim Hall's name was submitted by the Los Alamos County Council and appointed by Governor Martinez! Neither I nor any other members of Santa Fe County Commission ever considered Jim Hall.  How does one reverse a lie like this?

Reversing a lie is never easy, Virginia. We find it helps if you just keep telling the truth.

As for that Dem PRC race, our May 22 poll showed Santa Fe County Clerk Valerie Espinoza as the leader. We'll track it for you tomorrow night.

See you on the radio at 5 p.m. today.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's political community? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author