Gary King

Dem Attorney General Gary King is being blasted by the Guv's operatives and media supporters who say now that he is an announced candidate for Governor any investigation he conducts into emailgate or the down and dirty dealing over the awarding of the racino lease at the Downs at ABQ will smack of politics and lack credibility. But is King getting clever? An insider reader writes:

Gary is generally prohibited from assigning a case to a special prosecutor unless there is a specific conflict of interest. By announcing for governor, he has set up a genuine conflict. When he was undecided about running, there was no basis to authorize a special prosecutor.

Whether King intentionally created the conflict so he could open the door for a special prosecutor to come in on emailgate or whether he just backed into it is unknowable.

Critics of King have to be careful what they wish for. A special prosecutor's findings would not be as vulnerable to their political attacks and could potentially be used by King and any other Dems who run for Guv in 2014. Speaking of which....

SANCHEZ '14?

On the blog speculation about whether Susana will keep John Sanchez around as Lt. Governor in 2014, a tapped in reader writes:

First, the choice of who accompanies the Governor into the general election in 2014 is up to the Republican voters of New Mexico. Just as two years ago, Lieutenant Governor Sanchez and whoever challenges him will face off in a separate primary election. The only time the Governor gets a say in who fills the office of the Lieutenant Governor is when there is a vacancy. Second, any challenges to the sitting Lieutenant Governor in a primary would be a long shot. Aside from the obvious difficulties in upsetting a current office holder, Sanchez has been doing a great job lately. He was a popular choice at the Republican Convention this year to become a national delegate receiving more votes than Gov. Martinez. He is a native New Mexican and a proven vote getter in the Hispanic north. Also, his job presiding over the NM Senate has been exemplary as described by members on both sides of the isle. Nationally, he is the only Republican Hispanic Lieutenant Governor. Lastly, any guesses as to the future of our current Lieutenant Governor are premature. There are too many miles of political track to travel this year and next to put any stock on weather predictions.

It's true that the Light Guv is nominated separately from the Guv, but if Susana really wanted to dump John, there are ways of getting the job done. Not that she is going to do that...

As for Sanchez's future, we said it was cloudy because he started his race for the Senate this year with a good argument that he and not Heather Wilson should be the nominee, but his campaign was half-hearted and he had to drop out. There is a political price to pay for that.

BUCKING THE GUV


Susana went to bat for former GOP Las Cruces area State Senator Leonard Rawson, but her own appointees turned on her:

Members of the State Investment Council on elected Peter Frank as their vice chairman, again rejecting Gov. Susana Martinez's favored candidate. Frank defeated former Republican state legislator Leonard Lee Rawson of Las Cruces in a 5-4 vote. Two council members appointed by Republican Martinez voted for Frank, tipping the election his way. They were Scott Smart of Portales and Linda Eitzen of Albuquerque. Martinez, who chairs the investment council, first proposed last month that Rawson be elected vice chairman. Council members rejected Rawson then, also on a 5-4 vote. 

Rawson was muddied up in an ethics controversy (he secured capital outlay funds to pave a road that provided access to commercial development he owned) ) when he last ran for the Senate in 2008 and was defeated. Did that play a part in his rejection?

That Martinez's appointments on the SIC went their own way speaks to the hyper-controversy that has surrounded it since the Big Bill days. No one today wants to get caught on the wrong side.

SENATE ACTION

From the liberal Daily Kos site:

Republican ex-Rep. Heather Wilson is launching her first negative ad of the race, attacking Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich for voting for the Affordable Care Act, which included a medical device tax that Heinrich had previously spoken out against. Meanwhile, yet another new environmental group is getting in on the action here: The National Resources Defense Council is throwing down $38K on mailers hitting Wilson. In addition to the NRDC, you've got the Defenders of Wildlife, Environment America, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters. Wilson must have pissed them off something fierce, because all told, they've spent almost $1.5 million to defeat her so far. 

Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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It's days of wine and roses for Susana when it comes to her overall popularity--she scores a 59% voter approval rating--but peering deep into the numbers of our new exclusive poll we find that there is some post-election pain for the state's chief executive.

That nasty and divisive GOP June Senate primary on the state's eastside in which Martinez played a major role has caused her popularity to take a hit there. But get this. She wasn't hurt in her own party--despite endorsing losing candidate Angie Spears over winner Pat Woods--it was her approval among Democrats that plummeted.

Rancher Woods won that race by citing the outside interference from Martinez and her chief political adviser--Jay McCleskey. He argued the race needed to be decided locally--not out of ABQ or Santa Fe. His campaign even cut a TV ad and produced a mailer that blasted McCleskey and the "ABQ political machine." It worked, but according to our poll it was the Democrats who are making the Guv's popularity pay. Republicans there still highly approve of her.

And that raises a question. Can Democratic legislative candidates who get attacked by Susana PAC and McCleskey in the November election use it to rally Dem voters? Did Republican Woods discover a formula for not just defeating his Republican rival, but also give the Dems the game plan for legislative success against the Governor's well-financed and aggressive political operation?

Now let's get into the specifics of our poll that was conducted by Manzano Strategies on behalf of New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on July 17. We surveyed 1,505 likely voters by automatic phone calls. The margin of error statewide is 2.5%

THE POST-ELECTION PAIN

Veteran Republican consultant and pollster Bruce Donisthorpe supervised our survey, as he has done for many in the past four years--all of which proved highly accurate and predictive. Of the 1,505 voters we polled, 64 were from northeast New Mexico. The margin of error for those surveys will naturally be much higher--about 12%--but the poll demonstrates a clear trend of northeast Dems moving away from the Gov. Here's Donisthorpe with the analysis:

Gov. Martinez’s approval was at 58% statewide when we last surveyed her popularity in October, 2011. She currently stands at 59% in our latest survey. Martinez’s approval appears to have taken a hit in the northeastern counties which comprise State Senate District 7. That's where she played a major role in the recent Republican primary, endorsing Angie Spears who lost to rancher Pat Woods.

Her approval rating in Curry County (home to Clovis) has dropped from 71% in October, 2011 to  51%. In sparsely populated Harding County the Governor's popularity went from 72% in October, to today's 49%. In Quay County, Martinez’s approval rating dropped from 60% to 51%. In Roosevelt County she stayed pretty constant, scoring a 57% approval rating last October, and receiving a 53% approval rating in our latest survey. In Union County, the Governor’s approval rating has slipped to 51%, down from last October’s approval rate of 55%. (78% of District 7 is in Curry County where the media wars were concentrated but reverberated in the adjacent counties)
 
The Governor’s numbers have dropped most significantly among likely Democratic voters in the northest. Martinez has held her ground among Republican and Independent voters in Northeast New Mexico.
 
Comparing Last October’s ratings to this July among Democratic voters:
 
Her Curry approval rating among Democrats dropped from 72% to 15%. Her Quay County Democratic approval rating dropped from 50% to 33%. Her Union County Democratic approval rating dropped from 50% to 40%. Her Roosevelt Democratic approval rating dropped from 67% to 50%.
 
It seems clear that Democratic voters paid attention to the hotly-contested GOP primary in State Senate 7 and that the publicity seemed to have an adverse affect on the Governor’s popularity among local Democratic voters. Attacks on the Governor’s campaign advisor (Jay McCleskey) probably also did not help bolster the Governor’s approval ratings among Democratic voters.

We also asked Donisthorpe to report to us the Guv's approval rating in some of the state's most populated counties. Again, the margin of error is going to be higher in the county by county results than the statewide totals.

In Bernalillo County, Martinez’s approval rating rose from 56% to 59%. In Dona Ana County, the Governor’s approval rating rose from 51% to 54%. In San Juan County, her approval rating rose from 70% to 91%. In Santa Fe County, Martinez’s approval rating rose from 26% to 39%. The Governor’s 52% approval rating among Hispanic voters is the key factor in her overall high approval rating.

Martinez has every reason to celebrate another solid performance in a statewide scientific public opinion survey, but the fly in the ointment is Curry County and environs. She may want to reassess how she deploys her firepower this fall. In trying to expand her power in that Clovis contest, she appears to have unwittingly given the Dems vital information--that dragging Susana and Jay into a dogfight in a legislative contest isn't necessarily to be feared--it might be a good thing.

Donisthorpe's polling memo and analysis is posted here.

COME ON, DIANNA

Secretary of State Dianna Duran needs to get on the stick or charges of voter suppression are going to start to fly. The news:

...It started out as a good idea: The state would save taxpayers' money by printing its own voter registration forms instead of hiring a private contractor. Trouble is they haven't been able to keep up with demand. New Mexico Vote Matters and other nonprofit get-out-the-vote groups are just flat out of voter registration cards in English. That's because the Bernalillo County Clerk hasn't had any for most of the month. It's the same issue for clerks in Otero, McKinley, Eddy, Lea and Socorro Counties.
"Some of our voter registration agents have actually lost New Mexicans that have been wanting to register and get on the voting rolls," Oriana Sandoval of Vote Matters said. 

The SOS said August should see more registration forms become available.

CARRARO CAN

On our Wednesday blog and the attempt of former GOP State Senator Joe Carraro to beat Republican Senator John Ryan by running as an independent for the ABQ west side and Rio Rancho area district, a reader writes:

Carraro sure comes off cocky as ever, but I think he’s right. He has a shot (especially if, as you say, he can inject a little cash into the mix). I’d imagine that after all those years in public office, a restaurant / bar in his name plus his well-known “colorful personality,” his name recognition could carry him a long way. With no love for the kind of GOP lockstep Gov. Martinez expects from her rank and file, Carraro could be a double-edged, early Christmas present for Senate Dems--who should seriously consider lending their old friend and nemesis a hand in this race...

THE BOTTOM LINES

On our oft-repeated economic development proposals for New Mexico, reader Keith Miller writes:

Sometimes, once that tune stays in our heads for a while we find ourselves humming it for no particular reason. Which is good…we no longer have to ponder what the song says…we just need to sing it! Keep doing it and now let’s find people that want to do these tasks, especially the bi-partisan ones!

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Joe Carraro

No one we've quizzed can ever recall an independent being elected to the New Mexico State Senate, but you have to wonder if that 100 year streak could be broken if Joe Carraro raised some money. The colorful politico has switched from Republican to independent and is running in the November election against GOP State Senator John Ryan who is seeking a third term to an ABQ west side and Rio Rancho area district.

Carraro is a well-known figure in La Politica, serving a four year term in the Senate back in the 80's and then returning in '93 and staying until he announced his retirement in 2008. Never one to downplay a campaign theme, the onetime restaurant owner and current business consultant is dubbing his web site, "The Return of Joe Carraro."

Ryan, first elected in 2005, is also a business consultant who has about $19,000 in his campaign account. Carraro is reporting zero dollars as of the end of June. But the race remains tantalizing because no Democrat is running. A confident Carraro explains his lack of campaign cash this way:

The financial report was due three days after I filed for the seat which was 10 days after I decided to run, and two weeks before I got on the ballot. I just got my website up with a contribution page. Do you really think it's going to take me as much as Ryan spends to win? When I went to get petitions signed, just about everyone knew me, but I should probably raise a few bucks just to be sure. 

The district is 41% Dem and the question is: Where will they go? Independents number 17% of the electorate, R's make up 39% and the remainder are other parties. Conceivably, Carraro could put together enough Dems and Indys and take the seat from John. But while Carraro has all-important name ID that will only take him so far. He still needs cash to let it be known that he is in the game.

Sen. Ryan

Carraro left the R's because he was fed up with the insider wheeling and dealing of the shadow government that has emerged in Santa Fe. And he's always been one to carve his own path, going against the establishment candidate in a GOP US Senate primary in 2006 and on occasion donning an opera cape while pontificating on the floor of the state Senate.

Ryan is a tough-minded conservative Republican--some have argued too conservative for his urban district. His ties to Gov. Martinez run deep. His wife, Veronica Gonzales, is secretary of the state cultural affairs department.  If he runs into serious trouble, he will be able to count on Susana PAC money to see him through.

Carraro's personality has been an issue--you either like him or you don't.

Carraro vs. Ryan. Will something come of it, or is it just another topic for idle summer conversation as we swing in the hammock? We'll soon know.

NEW NUMBER TWO?

Speaking of idle chatter, what do you think the chances are that Susana will seek out another running mate in 2014, replacing Lt. Governor John Sanchez? The two have had some nasty encounters, especially when he briefly ran against Heather Wilson for the GOP US Senate nomination earlier this year. Since dropping out he seems to have become more cordial with the Guv.

We'd put the chances of the Guv dumping Sanchez as slim simply because it rarely happens, but that doesn't mean there aren't some R's positioning themselves in the event of a Sanchez departure.

As for Sanchez's political future beyond Light Guv, that weather forecast is very cloudy.

ROMNEY DETAILS

We have more on our exclusive (yeah, we still chase the ambulance once in a while) reported here last week that Mitt Romney is scheduled to make his first New Mexico visit on August 23 when he touches down in Hobbs for a fund-raiser. Here's details circulating in GOP circles:

It will be a fundraiser luncheon at the Rural Events Center in Hobbs. As discussed earlier it is $5,000 for the photo op and lunch or $500 for the lunch (per person). There are also $25,000 and $50,000 levels . All monies must be LLC or personal.

Talk about high-dollar. We're glad Mitt is headed to Hobbs. They have a bunch of oil money to spare, while the rest of the state continues to pinch pennies.

WILSON ATTACKS

We speculated on the blog this week that Heather Wilson was chomping at the bit to attack Dem Martin Heinrich in TV ads, but could be held back by her high unfavorable rating--49% in the most recent PPP poll. Well, wait no more. Wilson on Wednesday came with the first negative TV ad against her opponent for the open US Senate seat.

She charges that Heinrich "puts his left-wing politics before jobs," citing his vote against repealing  a "medical device tax" that she says he previously criticized. The tag line is "Martin Heinrich. Too extreme for New Mexico."

The problem is voting against repealing a medical device tax doesn't quite measure up to being "extreme." But it is July and one supposes the Wilson's producers have better examples of Heinrich's alleged extremism that will be unveiled in the fall. The campaign also put up a billboard attacking Heinrich's vote.

The Senate race here is currently ranked "lean Dem." Newspaper analysis of the Wilson ad is here.

 GET 'EM EARLY

Former ABQ City Councilor Miguel Gomez, now with St. Joseph Healthcare, has been digesting our regular reports on the New Mexico bear market and says that makes a pet issue of his (and ours) all the more important if we are to build any kind of decent future around here:

Invest In Kids Now proposes a constitutional amendment that would allow an annual distribution increase of 1.5 percent from the Land Grant Permanent Fund to be shared between K-12 and early education, funding a continuum of learning beginning at birth. Modifying the Permanent Fund distribution to include early education will not increase taxes, will not take money from K-12, and will not deplete the fund; in fact, the fund will continue to grow. Every dollar invested in early childhood education returns at least $10. This return on investment benefits all New Mexicans by improving the quality of life and early learning will save millions.

Studies show quality early education cuts in half the likelihood that a child will become a  career offender. Today, one out of 90 New Mexicans is in jail - this rate is higher than the national average.New Mexico currently spends $35,000 a year to keep an inmate in jail but only $250 per child for early education. We are spending in the wrong place. New Mexico now spends $283 million for adult and juvenile corrections yet only $35 million on early childhood programs...

A constitutional amendment requires majority approval in the state House and Senate. It is then sent to the voters for their decision. State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith has been the key stumbling block in getting the amendment through. He and others fear that it is "a raid" on the state's permanent savings account (Invest in Kids is one of our blog sponsors).

Governor Susana this week also said it is a raid. Her signature is not needed on the amendment for it to go to voters, but her moral support would have been a major boost for the effort. We don't see it as a "raid" but as a small and necessary gamble to break the generations-old cycle of poor education performance that holds the state back.

And just as we were wrapping this subject up, along came this email from NM Voices for Children:

The Annie E. Casey Foundation’s 2012 KIDS COUNT® Data Bookshows that New Mexico made a few gains in children’s health status, but the state has a long way to go in improving the economic, education, and  community-related well-being of its children. The state ranks 49th out of the 50 states. Only Mississippi ranks lower. This most recent data show that the recession and slow economic recovery are continuing to hurt struggling families in New Mexico. Since 2005, 30,000 more children live in poverty...In 2010, more than one-third of the state’s children had parents without secure employment, an increase of 23 percent from just two years before. (The) data book looked at 16 indicators of child well-being, broken down into four categories. In those categories, New Mexico ranked 49th in Education, Health, and Family and Community, and 48th in Economic Well-being.  

THE BOTTOM LINES

Reader Peter Ives writes:

You mistakenly referred to Rio Rancho as "the state's second largest city."Current Census 2012 estimates list Rio Rancho at about 89,000 population and Las Cruces at about 99,000...

And in a first draft Tuesday we said there was a "zero balance" in the majority leader campaign account of state House Majority Leader Kenny Martinez. Readers pointed out tht the fund actually had a $60,000 cash balance as of the end of June.

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Rep. Ken Martinez

Santa Fe lobbyists check in with the news that State Rep. Kenny Martinez, the current House Majority Leader, is making it no secret that the thinks he will be the next Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives. They point to a recent fund-raising pitch by Martinez of Grants that has a price tag for the event that tops out at $5,000.

Martinez, first elected in 1998, says the money is for his Majority Leader Fund, but insiders say the large amount he is asking for signals that he is preparing to take the helm from longtime Speaker Ben Lujan who will retire at the end of the year. We asked one of our Senior Alligators in Santa Fe for the exclusive insight on where Kenny is headed:

He will move the House further to the left than Ben. He is a trial attorney and that will show. There is also a lingering question about how close he will be to the Martinez administration..."

At the end of June Martinez's majority leader fund reported a $60,000 balance. His personal campaign account totaled $29,000. He is unopposed for re-election this November.

The Dems are expected to keep the narrowly divided state House under their control by a vote or two when the 2013 legislative session begins. That's the opinion of most of the top experts we consulted. Among House Dems we have quizzed, there is little if any opposition to crowning Martinez speaker. Oldtimers will remember that Kenny's father, Walter, held the Speaker's gavel back in the 70's.

The question of how Kenny Martinez will work with Susana Martinez has insider Dems watching carefully. They point out that Martinez had close ties to former Roswell State Rep. and GOP firebrand Dan Foley. Martinez chief of staff Keith Gardner is also a former Roswell state rep. These Dems also note his tight relationship with Dem State Rep. Al Park who jumped into bed with the Martinez administration when his law firm got a contract from the administration that was worth over $600,000 a year. Park lost a primary bid for a Public Regulation Commission seat.

While Speaker Lujan has been a down-the-line party man, Martinez still has to prove that he is as dedicated and not ready to wheel and deal too much with Susana or her minions. If he does, it won't stay secret for long. Don't say we didn't tell you...

A THIRD CHOICE

There's a third choice for voters in the race for the state's open US Senate seat--at least voters who fancy themselves conservative. Jon Barrie says he has been certified as an independent candidate and will appear on the Nov. 6 ballot, along with Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Martin Heinrich. Barrie, 69, a Vietnam Veteran worked for the Federal Aviation Administration, moved to ABQ three years ago. His campaign chief of staff is Melanie Hyland and she comes with this:

The Independent American Party and the Independent American party of New Mexico are proud to announce a true American patriot and freedom fighter, Jon Barrie, as the next U.S. Senator from New Mexico. Jon will be on the ballot under the Independent American Party. This is the first time in 16 years that anyone from this party has been on the ballot. This has been an incredible up-hill struggle, as any third party candidate must gather over twice as many signatures as the other parties combined to be on the ballot, but we managed this with only a few dedicated volunteers. Jon is running a true grassroots campaign, with limited resources at hand, battling the two giant parties with (seemingly) unlimited funding...

Barrie's pitch goes like this:

The framers of the Constitution knew that if government was left unchecked, it would lead to the demise of our personal freedoms and tear down the Republic that was so carefully created. Washington, D.C. is involved in all aspects of transportation, energy, food, farming, education, medicine, etc. Most of these areas are unconstitutional. I will introduce legislation to repeal or eliminate unconstitutional laws and regulations, and reduce or close down federal agencies—large and small. When our government is reduced to its’ constitutional size, there will be no need for the exorbitant taxes forced upon us. I will work to repeal all unconstitutional tax laws...

The conservative/libertarian Barrie can be seen on Facebook. He says if he is elected to the Senate he will donate half his salary to help children with disabilities in New Mexico in honor of his son--a special needs child--who passed away at the age of 10.

THE BEAR MARKET

The office vacancy rate in the ABQ metro is now pushing a Depression-level 19%. And that splash of cold water is finally getting the biz community to give up on the spin and deal with reality. An example:

A sustained period of job growth is needed before you see better things in the office market,” Terri Dettweiler of commercial real estate firm CBRE told the Journal. 

But the state's top political leaders rarely mention the jobs debacle here and the crushing impact it is having on business. Read on.....

LOOKING FOR LEADERSHIP

Pete Dinelli

Former ABQ City Councilor and ABQ Public Safety Director Pete Dinelli says he is testing the waters for a 2013 mayoral run. The ABQ attorney comes with his first take on ABQ's sagging economy:

Did you notice that in the Sunday Journal article "Hispanic Jobless Rate Grim" there was not a single quote or observation of concern made by Mayor Richard Berry or Governor Martinez? The article reported an 11.3% jobless rate for Hispanics in Albuquerque and 8.2% statewide. In January, Albuquerque had a overall unemployment rate of 7.6%. The last sentence in the Journal article quoted  Hispano Chamber of Commerce CEO Alex Romero as saying "Its a leadership issue".  Talk about an understatement and a very sad one indeed.  Albuquerque keeps "bleeding jobs" and fails to attract any new industry and  fails in  economic development efforts. But we sure are going to have a pretty looking convention center, albeit an empty one at that,  after $20 million in renovations. Every one blames Obama nationally for the poor economy, but our Mayor and Governor are absolutely silent on what they are doing and have accomplished as far as job creation in Albuquerque and in New Mexico. But then again their silence reflects what they are doing.   

Thanks for that, Pete. It is indeed baffling that the Mayor of Albuquerque and Governor Martinez were AWOL in that article, but when it comes to jobs that's been par for the course. They don't talk about them and the mainstream media does not press them.

But we do. Our Bear Market coverage continues with this reader contribution from Melissa Torres:

What the heck is Susanna Martinez doing to keep/create jobs in New Mexico?  I know that it takes a collective effort between the administration and the legislature to make good things happen, but she has shown no leadership on this issue. She hasn't even put forward a worthy jobs proposal that the legislature can get behind.  How can we move New Mexico in a direction that is going to be positive for local economies if our own Governor is silent on jobs? She seems to be more concerned with helping her political cronies, attending dog and pony show press events, and implementing an education plan that has no chance of being successful...
 
I am so frustrated with this Governor and all my neighbors are too. Susanna promised a new day for New Mexico, but it seems things are getting even worse. I know the Republican faithful say that government can't create jobs but I think most people disagree. Between her pushing the movie industry out of the state and her ill will towards state and federal spending, I see no hope for our economy here in New Mexico. Please help your fellow New Mexican's share their frustrations and shed some light on her silence on this issue.

Appreciate that, Melissa. We will continue to hold the politicos feet to the fire on the jobs front, even as they try to ignore the jobs crisis and accuse us of being partisan. We aren't and our track record of applying heat to the previous Democratic administration on economic issues proves it, We're for putting New Mexicans back to work and want to see those in power get to work--whether they be Democrat, Republican or Green.

Along those lines, this from the AP:

Gov. Martinez's administration says it's implementing an online system that should speed up state approval of architectural and construction plans. The governor and Regulation and Licensing Department Superintendent J. Dee Dennis said that architects, designers and contractors can electronically submit their plans to the state Construction Industries Division rather than sending them by mail or having them hand-delivered....

Good move, Guv, but what we need now is some construction projects to speed up. In the past, you have proposed a bigger capital outlay bill than the Senate Dems. Could you do that again--and soon?

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Sen. Sanchez

State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez is back on the campaign trail, looking fit and ready for the battle to come after undergoing an emergency procedure to avoid a heart attack. He was released from the hospital last Friday and is pictured here on Thursday visiting the Pueblo of Isleta Elderly Center on the 19th.

Sanchez, who turns 62 August 3, has become the major nemesis of GOP Governor Martinez, repeatedly blocking her key initiatives in the 42 member Senate. So much so that Martinez has had her political team target him in the November election. He will be challenged by GOP State Rep. David Chavez who had announced he was leaving the Legislature, but changed his mind after being recruited for the Senate run by Martinez.

Sanchez, a native of Belen, has been in the Senate since '93. He shows a healthy cash balance of $73,000 in his campaign account as of July 5. But he will need that and more if, as expected, SusanaPAC comes with an ad blitz against him. Chavez reports having $46,000 in cash as of July 5, evidence that the R's are serious about seeking an upset of the powerful Senate leader.

A factor weighing in Sanchez's favor is the new shape of his district. It now includes the aforementioned Isleta Pueblo in Bernalillo County, improving its Democratic performance rating. Also, a presidential election year is expected to attract more Dems to the polls than an off-year election.

Martinez chose to confront Sanchez, rather than try to schmooze him and work some compromises through the Legislature. She has drawn a line in the sand on key initiatives like the repeal of driver's licences for undocumented workers and social promotion for third graders. The result has been  legislative gridlock. R's argue that by blockading Susana, Sanchez is thwarting the will of the people as expressed in her election and public opinion polls on key issues.

But Sanchez, a trial attorney based in Los Lunas, and his fellow powerhouse Senators were treated poorly by Dem Guv Big Bill. That left a foul taste in their mouths and they were not about to be run over by yet another Governor.

Sanchez has been majority leader since 2005, elected by a slim plurality in an eclectic Senate Dem caucus. His hold on power is a balancing act with conservatives and liberals. The Senate remains under the control of a coalition, composed of a handful of conservative Dems and all the Senate Republicans.

Sanchez, brother of former House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, is sometimes criticized as quirky and aloof. But opinion is nearly universal that he has grown in the job and that after seven years as majority leader and 19 in the Senate, he no longer labors under the shadow of his politically astute brother and has come into his own as a major player.

Sanchez has been hamstrung by the divided Dems, half who lean conservative and the other half who lean liberal. He can blockade the Guv's major bills, but he can't get much through. He has been criticized for not being more forceful and breaking up the conservative coalition and asserting Dem control of the chamber, but his supporters argue the votes simply are not there.

Gov. Martinez in the next 100 days will try to convince Sanchez's constituents that his ouster is the only way to break the logjam in Santa Fe and to improve education and the economy. Sanchez will argue that it is he who stands first in line in keeping the Republican Governor in check and forcing her to either compromise with the state's majority party or walk away each year with an empty legislative basket.

And now that we see that Senator Sanchez is up and about we are ending The Great Chicharrone Fast that we instituted in his honor upon hearing the news of his illness. We do, however, urge moderation if you choose to indulge...

THE GREAT JOBS DRAIN

Governor Martinez, Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith and Department of Finance and Administration Secretary Ton Clifford have a decision to make. Are they going to step up and allow some of the hundreds of vacant state government positions to be filled, or is this New Mexico jobs recession going to get even worse under their watch? The latest

The collapse in public sector employment has New Mexico again leading the country in job losses. Federal statistics for June show a loss of 5,200 jobs in the government sector compared with a year ago...Compared with May 2012, the loss in government jobs is even higher -6,800 positions. New Mexico led the United States in the percentage of month-over-month job losses for June 2012 (-0.5 percent)... The biggest drop is in state education jobs, which declined 3,200 positions from May to June 2012...In the 12 months ended June 30, the state lost 1,700 jobs for a negative 0.2 percent growth rate.

In the private sector, things are not quite as bad: 

Seven industry sectors saw job increases, five had declines and one remained unchanged. Educational and health services added 4,300 jobs; leisure and hospitality, 2,100; mining, 1,600; and manufacturing, 1,100 over the year. The government sector lost 5,200 jobs; professional and business services, 4,100; and information and miscellaneous services, 1,200 each. New Mexico’s labor force totaled 928,360 in June, down from 932,370 in May, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The state’s labor force peaked at 947,911 in August 2008...

The state labor force--including educators--appears to have been slashed by over 20% in the last four years. Combine that with downsized city and county governments and flat lined federal spending and you have the story--the backbone of this state's economy--the government sector--is getting hammered and there is no way the private sector can make up for that kind of slack.

And while government jobs are good jobs--decent pay and benefits with retirement--many of the private sector jobs being created are low-paying. Look at the decline in professional and business sector. That's where the good paying private enterprise jobs are and we are losing them in droves. A bright spot is the growth in the educational and health services sector, but health services is very dependent on federal health spending. It is being threatened with spending cuts.

Santa Fe can put people back to work right now in state agencies that are finding themselves operating under tight labor conditions after years of budget constrains. The Governor, Smith and Clifford need to find out where. We have an extra $250 million from oil and gas revenues. Can't we use some of it to stimulate the economy in the best way possible--by putting New Mexicans back to work?

OUR BROKEN RECORD

Joe Monahan

The fact that the state workforce peaked at about 948,000 four years ago and is now down to 932,000--despite population growth--is just deadly. People are throwing in the towel and getting out of here. True, a number of them are in nomadic professions like construction, but we are also losing our brain trust of young professionals who can't make it here. This "dumbing down" is going to mean a future lopsided with low-paying and unchallenging jobs that pay the rent and little else.

Martinez gets it that improved education is the way out of the mess--for the future. But the massive jobs drain in the here and now has left the administration looking like passengers in a car slowing down to view an accident, but doing little else. The mantra of cutting taxes and regulations is not getting the job it done.

Okay, somebody grab that broken record over there because here we go again:

--Start with filling vacant government positions as mentioned above. Not padding the payroll, but jobs that are really needed to deliver efficient service and have gone unfilled.

--Increase the state promotional budget to beef up tourism that will then lead to the creation of more small businesses and jobs

-- Form a bipartisan task force to loudly fight in Washington for our federal funding for the military bases and national laboratories, Not only that--have the task force fight for an additional federal presence here. (Los Alamos leaders have started the process).

--Build a dental school at UNM to complement the medical and law schools

--Pass a capital outlay bill for bridge, road repair etc, in the vicinity of $400 million to get this state's construction industry moving again

--Use the Gubernatorial bully pulpit to increase use of the state Spaceport and out maneuver the growing competition the Spaceport faces from around the globe

--Propose to reduce the jobs-killing gross receipts tax and make up the revenue, in part, through an increase in the extremely low tax on capital gains.

This latest jobs report signals anew that New Mexico is adrift economically. There is plenty of blame to go around for both Democrats and Republicans. Our greatest threat is not the lack of ideas, but  the seeming apathy that has infected Santa Fe.

HEATHER IS NOT READY

Sure, she's ready to campaign hard and effectively, she's just not ready to aim the big guns at Dem Martin Heinrich. That's evident in her latest TV ad. Behind in the polls and with August just around the corner, you know Wilson is chomping at the bit to unload on Heinrich, but she can't. Her unfavorable rating in the latest PPP poll of 49% continues to hinder her. When she starts to go negative, she knows that unfavorable rating could go even higher, so she has to bide her time.

Positive image ads have been run trying to bring that unfavorable rating down, but with not much effect. So here is Heather's latest ad, discussing the top issue--jobs and the economy--but not laying blame at Heinrich's doorstep--at least not yet.

The campaign does slam Heinrich in the news release announcing the ad:  

Martin Heinrich supports growing government, growing debt and growing government control over our lives. Wilson believes the way to create jobs is by keeping taxes low, energy costs low and freezing job-killing regulations.

The clock is ticking. Wilson needs to get her negatives down and start hitting Heinrich.  That the first round of soft ads on her behalf did not do the job is worrisome. That Heinrich is making no mistakes in the early stages adds to the Republican worry.

PAT ROGERS IS OUT

In case you missed it, lawyer/lobbyist and GOP national committeeman Pat Rogers has resigned from the board of the New Mexico Foundation for Open Government (FOG), the first victim of emailgate.

The dust-up began when it was revealed that Rogers, serving as attorney for the Downs at ABQ, emailed high level staffers for Governor Martinez about the pending state lease for the Downs racino. He and they used private email accounts to do so, raising questions as to whether the awarding of the lease was done properly, an issue that State Auditor Hector Balderas has been asked to investigate.

But it wasn't the racino emails alone that pushed Rogers off the political cliff. It was another round of emails in which he wisecracked about a gay Public Regulation Commissioner and wrote a number of other eye-browsing missives.

When asked about those emails by the Santa Fe Reporter, he called into question the journalistic ethics of the paper and refused to comment. When confronted by KOB-TV news cameras, he briskly walked away and refused comment. (Readers have asked us for a link to the KOB video which ran on the station's 10 p.m. news last week, but it has not been posted on the station's web site). After that, his resignation from the FOG board--charged with advocating for open government--became inevitable.

The embarrassing emails were made public by the Independent Source Fund PAC. It is union-funded and has emerged as a leading critic of the Martinez administration.

In resigning, Rogers said even his most staunch critics say he did nothing to break the law in the second round of emails. That appears to be true, but that does not mean there are no legal implications for Rogers in his wheeling and dealing over the racino lease. The issues to be resolved there are possible bid-rigging and collusion.

HOW ROGERS GOT POWER

A reader writes:

Thanks for your post  about lobbyist Pat Rogers. I worked in both the Johnson/Bradley Governor Administration and for Republican Senator Pete Domenici for 7 years in the 90's. Pat is no stranger to playing behind the scenes GOP politics at the highest levels. However, there was always someone with more stature and experience to keep him in check (i.e. Lou Gallegos and Steve Bell, Chiefs of Staff for both Johnson and Domenici). Comparatively speaking, Susana's handlers are younger, less experienced and lack the stature Lou and Steve commanded back in the day. Therefore, with this administration, it's been easier for Pat to slither in and, with his legal pedigree and GOP street cred, overwhelm and influence the younger staff. This comment should elevate me to senior alligator status. Why? Simple. Like you, I've lived it.

That's good stuff that you are not going to get anywhere else--not in the papers, on TV or from any other blog. It's what keeps us on top and our readers the best informed in the state. So....

We checked with this reader to make sure he was over the age of 45 (a requirement for a Senior Alligator) and he wrote back that he turns 46 in a couple of weeks. Welcome aboard, Senior Gator.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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