Now that Governor Martinez and the state's delegation to the Republican National Convention are headed home the question is what she can do--if anything--to halt what could be somewhat of a GOP debacle come Election Night.

We saw debacle because her political ally and GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson is slip sliding away. If she doesn't do something quickly, she could be a dead woman walking for the next two months.

The big blow to her this week was when the National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled the TV plug on her, signaling they do not think the race is winnable. We talked about that with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson.

Can Susana use some of here afterglow from the convention to help Heather with Hispanic voters and places like Dona Ana County? And how about Romney? Can the Guv's political arm give Romney a boost? He is in as much trouble here as Heather. And that goes double for ABQ GOP congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones. Her race with Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham has been all but written off by political pros on both sides. Martinez also has her hands full as she uses her PAC to ty to alter the shape of the New Mexico Legislature, currently controlled by the Dems.

It was a nice vacation for the Governor in Tampa, but now it's back to reality--possibly a grim one.
2010 was a huge Republican year in New Mexico. 2012 appears to be shaping up as a very good year for the Dems here, if not quite as potent a display as the R's put on two years ago.

SHE WAS GOOD

A variety of opinion across the political spectrum on how Governor Martinez performed when she addressed the GOP convention Wednesday night, but not surprisingly Republican opinion was unanimous that she did very well indeed. Kevin Moomaw, former executive director of the NM GOP, now working in politics in Austin, TX, emails this:

The Governor did an outstanding job. The content of the speech was excellent and her delivery was wonderful. Susana came across as genuine and as someone who can relate to the average Individual . Her ability to express her philosophy in human terms is a hard act to follow. Romney's campaign will certainly ask her to campaign across the country. I received dozens of emails last night and today from friends across Texas telling me how well she had done--including Texas delegates at the convention...

Martinez moved up the ladder with her speech, but still way in front of her on the top rungs is Marc Rubio, the Hispanic Florida Senator who gave quite the speech to the convention on its final night.

LET'S LEAN

Back on the Senate race, we were alone then, but we expected to hear some footsteps behind us when months ago we ranked the race for the open NM US Senate seat as "Lean Dem. Here they come:

The New Mexico Senate race appears to be moving in Democrats’ direction. That’s the sense after a string of new polling showed Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) expanding his lead beyond the margin of error against former Rep. Heather Wilson (R). Plus, national Republicans have shifted money for television time out of the state to a more competitive race. With these developments, Roll Call is moving the race from Tossup to Leans Democratic.

The Washington Post has also now moved the NM US Senate race from "Toss-Up" to "Lean Dem."

INDIAN GAMING

Staying with the Native American theme, we have this email from ABQ Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino about the quest of an Indian tribe to open a casino in southern New Mexico:

Joe, about your mention in the  blog during your recent visit to Deming of the "Oklahoma Indian  tribe" that claims part of Luna County as their ancestral lands.  I've had the opportunity to meet with various representatives of the  Fort Sill Apaches, and their history is one of the sorrier chapters in  New Mexico's dismal past dealings with native tribes. I wish the band  would more widely use their more accurate name: the Chiricahua Apaches, rather than the  one based on where they wound up being shipped: Ft. Sill, Oklahoma.  

This is the tribe of Geronimo, Mangas Coloradas, Victorio--and many  other colorful figures who never did surrender to the US Army.  It was  only through trickery that Indian Agents were able to put many of them  on a train and take them to Florida.  They thought they were heading for  Washington, D.C. and a meeting with the President...Instead they spent several decades in wretched camps in  inhospitable Florida, then got sent to Oklahoma, where they never did  get their own reservation but lived in tiny settlements...

Some Chiricahuas did  get sent to Mescalero, where they have tried to maintain a separate  identity for a century. Now the two remnants have a workable plan to  create their own nation in the area their ancestors roamed 150 years  ago. It hinges on being able to start a casino near Deming on a ranch  they've purchased, and then gradually using casino earnings to buy  adjacent property, eventually creating a land of their own. I just want  to make sure your readers understand this is really a historic New  Mexico band of Natives, not an opportunistic band from another part of  the country. And your blog, as always, provides great insights and  information that the print and television guys never seem able to dig  into.  

Thanks for that interesting history, Jerry. As for the tribe's efforts to open a casino in Luna County, we reported that we heard much support for it while traveling in the economically hard hit area. The proposal is currently winding its way through the federal government machinery. There is discussion on whether the casino can go ahead without the approval of the Governor. Martinez has expressed her opposition.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Martinez in Tampa

Primetime was downtime for the three major American broadcast networks when it came to Governor Susana Martinez. Not one of them--ABC, CBS or NBC--carried her eight minute speech to the Republican National Convention Wednesday night, leaving our Guv--the nation's first female Hispanic Governor--to tout her uniqueness on the cable networks. That drained the impact and drama of the speech that was presupposed on the eve of the speech by her supporters, her staff and the state's media (Transcript and video here). It also meant her moment in the sun was blacked out on the three major New Mexico network affiliates. They did give it extensive coverage on their late news broadcasts.

So what happened? A Senior Alligator said it was a marketing failure, that the content of Martinez's talk needed to be stronger:

Sarah Palin already worked the Sarah Palin angle. Nice effort on the part of (Martinez political adviser) Jay McCleskey to try a Latina version--even though there's no Hispanic and no woman on the ticket. It's all just a variation on what's becoming an increasingly worn out GOP theme: don't judge people based on how they look--but here's a few folks we'd like you to judge based on how they look. This crew really is that cynical... 

As for the speech itself and Susana's delivery,  reviews were generally favorable. The Guv started out with some butterflies in her stomach, but quickly found her footing. The WaPo's Chris Cilliza came with the kinder, gentler review, listing her among the evening's "winners" in Tampa:

Before tonight most people--including most Republicans--didn’t know much (if anything) about the New Mexico governor.  Martinez changed that--in a good way--with a down-to-earth delivery and ease in the moment that many politicians with much more experience on the national stage would rightly be jealous of.  In listening to Martinez, she struck us as the female equivalent of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie--very comfortable in her own skin and easily relatable to the average person.  The strength of Martinez’s speech was, for us, the most surprising thing about the night...

So was it it a single, a double, a home run? A double would seem about right. Veteran ABQ Journal reporter Michael Coleman seemed to have it in the same area of the ballpark, saying the speech "earned an appreciative if not rousing reception" inside the Tampa convention hall.

Dem analyst Harry Pavlides came with this analysis:

I thought it helped her cause with the Republicans on a national level. Down the line, if Romney were to win, they could look at her for a cabinet position. I was impressed with the speech, but then again I was impressed with Sarah Palin. I think if the national networks had covered her, it could have been a much bigger night for her.

An Alligator noted another reason Susana may have been shafted from the Big Three's primetime coverage:

Martinez really got the shaft being placed between Condolezza Rice and VP candidate Ryan. The TV commentators are only talking about them after Rice's powerful speech and Ryan's nomination speech.  The commentator aren't mentioning Martinez and her speech is being overlooked.  That will affect her ability to be memorable nationally, especially in '16.

Martinez's delivery of her speech--just before VP candidate Paul Ryan addressed the convention--was more than adequate and the Governor easily delivered lines she has given hundred of times before. But to a national audience drenched in "up by your boot straps political stories" it probably seemed interesting, but not compelling.

"It was more inspirational. It was not policy-oriented and thus there really was no news hook for the media," offered another of our Senior Alligators.

Martinez did boast of one policy accomplishment in her speech--or what she says is a policy coup. She told the convention:

I inherited the largest structural deficit in state history. And our legislature is controlled by Democrats. We don't always agree. But we came together--in a bi-partisan manner--and turned that deficit into a surplus, all without raising taxes.

We're going to be generous and not call Martinez's assertion a big lie. But the fact is that Governor Richardson raised taxes and slapped on a hiring freeze when confronted with dwindling revenues because of the recession. Martinez and the Legislature agreed to about $185 million in budget cuts in her first legislative session to bring the budget into balance. Hardly the biggest deficit ever, but Jay and Susana are going to keep repeating it it because her legislative cupboard is so bare.

Governor Martinez did a serviceable job in her speech. She did not hurt herself and it was a point of pride to see the New Mexico Governor getting the national spotlight, albeit not as bright as it could have been.

ME AND MY SHADOW

Leave it to New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan to get the pics you are dying to see. This one definitely makes the list. It's Governor Martinez with none other than "Shadow Governor" Jay McCleskey as they take in the Republican National Convention at Tampa.

The picture is courtesy of our Alligators on the scene keeping the look out for you.

Jay doesn't think he has earned the nickname "Shadow Governor" but to seasoned political observers--the Senior Alligators--he surely has. He wields more power than any previous gubernatorial adviser in memory. He has become a public figure for the divisive campaign he ran against Republican Senate candidate Pat Woods in Clovis in the June primary. Attack ads were run against him, not the Governor, and we should expect more hits from Jay and on him as we get into the meat of the New Mexican campaign season.

Our first exposure to him was back in 2003 in the ABQ city council election when he ran one of his bare knuckled campaigns which are today his trademark. He was all of 27. The next 10 years he more or less spent in the political wilderness bu then struck gold consulting Richard Berry in the 2009 ABQ Mayor's race and Martinez in 2010.

Susana seems to like it that way, as after 20 months in office she has not made any overt moves to limit McCleskey's power which became even more public when a series of private emails among Martinez administration officials was leaked.

McCleskey has long ties to the Republican National Committee. Is he going to try to ride the Martinez horse to the national stage? Well, first there is the small matter of her re-election campaign in 2014. And he will have to withstand increasingly louder calls for the Governor to be more inclusive in her inner circle to balance out McCleskey's power.

ROGERS AND CUSTER (CONT.)

There has been some rain the Guv's Tampa parade this week. It's those latest offensive email comments from GOP National Committeeman and lawyer/lobbyist Pat Rogers. The Guv has been fending off calls for his resignation from the national committee. But Rogers' foes are taking their battle to the doorstep of the Modrall law firm where Rogers hangs his shingle:

ProgressNow New Mexico will join leaders from Native American, Hispanic and LGBT communities Thursday morning (August 30) at 9:00 am outside of the Modrall law offices located at 500 Fourth Street NW, Albuquerque for a brief press conference before community leaders deliver letters and attempt to meet with firm representatives. The public and media are invited to attend this public event. 

In case you missed it, here is the incendiary Rogers email in question. It is Rogers "joking" about the Governor's mandatory meeting with state Tribal leaders held in June:
 
Quislings, French surrender monkeys, secret supporters (all along) of JAJ [Janice Arnold Jones]...The state is going to hell. Col. Weh would not have dishonored Col Custer in this manner. I hope who ever recommended this is required to read the entire redist [redistricting law suit] transcript and sit through the entire meeting with the Gov....

The All Indian Pueblo Council has called for Rogers' resignation from the Republican National Committee. The Indian Law Practice Group at Modrall put out this letter of apology for Rogers' comments:

Rogers has recognized  that the comment was a poor attempt at humor and has apologized for his remark...We too want to apologize for Pat's comment..It does not reflect our values or the values of Pat or our firm...

Governor Martinez had to deal with questioning about Rogers in Tampa. Like Modrall, she is trying to make Roger's apology--not his resignation--the final chapter:

It was a poor attempt at humor, but he apologized and we need to move on. I’m sure it was offensive and he apologized.  He has done fabulous work for the Republican Party for decades."

Martinez pointed out that ABQ state Rep. Sheryl Williams Stapleton of Albuquerque, a Democratic National Committee person-at large at the party’s national convention in Charlotte, N.C. next week, also made ethnically insensitive comments late last year. Stapleton, in a public exchange at the Capitol, referred to Martinez as “the Mexican” on the Capitol’s fourth floor in Santa Fe.

“She (Stapleton) apologized and we moved on,” Martinez said. “I didn’t ask for her resignation. People sometimes will say things that may be hurtful and aren’t the smartest thing to do, but she apologized and I moved on.”

Nice try by the Guv at fading the heat by citing Stapleton, but this is not a one time offense by Rogers. A series of emails released by the union-funded Independent Source PAC has revealed a series of comments that could be viewed as derogatory toward Hispanics and gays.

It's not surprising that Martinez and Modrall are circling the wagons. The Guv swears by the polls and as long as they are good, she doesn't move--even as some around her run amok.

Modrall lives by the billing hour. If the hyper-controversial Rogers impacts the bottom line, he will be gone. Otherwise, it appears Modrall is willing to risk having its legacy law firm rebranded with the Rogers stamp.

By the way, while Modrall has Republican roots notable Dems also practice there, including former US attorney John Kelly and Michelle Hernandez who recently sought the Democratic nomination from the Dem State Central Committee for an opening on the NM Supreme Court.

ADVERTISE HERE

Joe Monahan

That's another edition of the blog and another brimming with the news and analysis you will find only here. It's the stuff that has made us the state's leading political web site, quoted regularly across the USA. It is what the media experts call "must-reading." And our readership will be even wider and deeper as we enter the fall campaign stretch. It's an ideal time for you to advertise your business or candidacy.

Constant exclusive news, analysis backed by decades of experience from the author and his unrivaled sources, a reputation for fair and balanced coverage and a loyal and smart readership all consolidated for you on one web site. That's why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan is your top choice to reach the audience of Campaign 2012.

Drop us an email today for advertising details and put your business or candidate in the thick of today's action and become part of the excitement as we bring this campaign to life.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

What's the best advice we've heard for Governor Martinez as she walks to the podium and into the national political spotlight to deliver a speech at the Republican National Convention tonight?

"Don't worry about hitting a Grand Slam--avoid the big mistake."

Pretty good advice there. The New Mexico chief executive is now a veteran of La Politica, but still a neophyte on the national stage. If she drops the ball, it could permanently define her. On the other hand, a pedestrian speech that promotes herself and  Romney and gives women and Hispanics a reason to vote for him might not electrify the pundits over her future political prospects, but it will get the job done.

If Susana somehow manages to score a triple or home run, more power to her, but doing no harm is the first order of business.

Does Martinez have a future in national politics? Not yet. She is still a work in progress. You don't see her handlers allowing her to appear on national broadcasts like "Face the Nation" or the hard-hitting cable news broadcasts. Instead, she has been dipping her toes in the national waters by helping the party with fund-raising and campaigning for selective candidates.

This is a sound strategy for the first term Governor. National issues are complex and fraught with political potholes. Step in one and you may get stuck.

Martinez is effective as a political symbol. She does well when explaining her personal story and serving in an inspirational role as the nation's first female Hispanic Governor.

Martinez does not do so well when grappling with the intricacies of public policy or setting forth a confident vision of the future. Witness her mostly silent stance on the continued deterioration of the state's jobs picture--among the worst in the nation (although on the eve of her big speech the administration did release news of an October 2 "New Century Economy Summit" in ABQ).

For now, Martinez is comfortable in her role of national symbol. She may or may not grow enough to someday advance beyond the borders of the Land of Enchantment. But her appearance tonight before the American nation is no small feat for the 53 year old who started out in El Paso as a security guard for her family's business. Her perseverance and ambition are key to her success and a fitting example for young men and women who someday hope to have their own day in the political sun,

It's always an honor to have New Mexico noticed around the world in a positive light so good luck tonight, Governor, and don't worry about swinging for the fences, a solid hit to first base will do the
trick.

We previewed the Guv's speech with KOB-TV. We also did a preview for National Public Radio's Morning Edition. That audio is here.

ALLIGATOR PIC

Guv In The House

The Alligators are on the floor of the Republican convention, filling us in on the action and providing exclusive photos like this one.

First Gentleman Chuck Franco is seen with smiling wife and Governor Susana Martinez as Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela seems to be letting out a cry of delight in reaction to the convention activity.

Remember all the speculation about Barela and whether he would seek the ABQ US House seat in 2012 as he did in 2010? He decided against it, but don't put your Barela file away.

The speculation has now heated up about Barela seeking the GOP US Senate nomination in 2014 to challenge incumbent Dem Senator Tom Udall.

Barela will probably have to build a better record in economic development if he does hope to run. But New Mexico won't care why he brings in jobs, only that he does.

DATELINE TAMPA

Damron, Debra & John

It's not all politics in Tampa, of course. A national convention is an occasion to party hearty and this threesome looks more than ready for the fun ahead,

Pictured on the left is Dr. J.R. Damron, the Santa Fe radiologist who is chairman of the Romney  NM campaign. You may remember him from 2006 when he was for a brief time the GOP governor nominee before being replaced by John Dendahl.

Beaming smiles with Damron are Lt. Governor John Sanchez and his wife Debra. It looks like Tampa is helping John forget the pain he was in when he challenged Heather Wilson for the GOP US Senate nomination this year and lost.

Wer should mention that this pic came from Sanchez's Twitter feed. If Jay thought John was an Alligator and sending us a pic, he would probably ban him from Tampa and put him on a bus bound for the Charlotte Dem confab where Sanchez would be forced to cheer Obama. 

The New Mexico delegation is housed out in the hinterlands--far from the convention center, denoting the fact that New Mexico is no longer a swing state in the presidential derby. The state is leaning towards the Dems.

Insiders report from Tampa that there has been some grumbling among the state's delegation about the absence of Governor Martinez from delegation activities, but as the old song goes, "How ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm /After they've seen Paree'...."

SENATE ACTION

Heather Wilson's worst fear seems to be becoming true. Money is drying up for her race against Dem Martin Heinrich for the state's open US Senate seat as Heinrich slowly but surely builds a substantial polling lead. The news:

...The National Republican Senatorial Committee--NRSC--is also canceling its ads in New Mexico, where Democrat Martin Heinrich appears to be pulling ahead of Republican Heather Wilson, and Missouri, where Rep. Todd Akin’s comments about abortion and rape have damaged his campaign and caused national Republicans to flee the state...Asked to comment on the strategic shift, NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said the committee does not comment on ad reservations.The NRSC’s move away from New Mexico and Missouri, and its move to reinforce North Dakota, would seem to reflect the narrower path Republicans now face on the way to a Senate majority.

Not that you won't see a bunch of negative TV ads against Heinrich. The Super PACS are still flooding the airwaves for Heather, but the NRSC move is a major tell--the R's are on the ropes here.

Earlier the NRSC said it had reserved some $3 million in ad time for Heather. That will not happen and it's a lesson to you politics watchers. "Reserving" and actually "buying" are entirely two different matters.

It's not all Wilson's fault, although the public seems burned out on the former congresswoman. It is the strength of Obama in New Mexico over Romney that is also impacting her chances.

MORE HEATHER WOES

Jon Barrie

Heather's chances were dealt yet another blow Tuesday when a Santa Fe district court judged ruled that independent conservative Senate candidate Jon Barrie will be allowed on the Nov. 6 ballot. His candidacy had been challenged by the Secretary of State. Barrie, the candidate of the Independent American party, could peel a couple of points from Heather--not that it is going to matter much if she doesn't find a formula to arrest the Dem trend in this contest.

We've ranked the US Senate race here "lean Dem" for a number of months and have been pretty much alone. Others have ranked it a "Toss Up" or "Toss Up/Lean Dem." We think we're going to be getting some company soon.

A caveat: While Wilson has been knocked to the canvas by this NRSC and Barrie news, voters still want reassurance that Heinrich is the man for the job. The TV debates loom for both contenders, but much larger for Wilson. She must now force an error from the ABQ Congressman or all will probably be lost.

 HOW WOULD HE KNOW?

A reader writes of ABQ Mayor Berry's opposition to an increase in the city minimum wage:

As far as the Mayor's statement that the minimum wage increase will destroy jobs, how would he know when he has failed to attract any new jobs to the City and has not presented any kind of an economic development plan.  The likely affect an increase in the minimum wage is that the added costs will be passed on to the consumers but it will not destroy jobs. Let the people vote on the issue.

From what we hear out of City Hall it does appear voters will be deciding at the Nov 6. election whether the minimum wage in the city should be boosted from $7.50 to $8.50 an hour. The city council must vote to put it on the ballot after groups supporting the increase submitted the required petition signatures. If it's approved, the hike would take effect next year

JOHNSON WATCH

When businessman and avowed non politician Gary Johnson was the last Republican Governor of New Mexico Republicans--unlike today--moved quickly to ensure that he was guided by government professionals--not political ones. Then-Senator Domenici moved to make government veteran Lou Gallegos Gary's chief of staff. Gary went out on his political bender, calling for the legalization of drugs, but the day-to-day affairs of government were not infected with the political bugs. You've got give Gary credit for that. As for his campaign for President as the Libertarian Party nominee this year, the latest polling says:

Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson is on the ballot  in all 50 states but is largely unknown to the nation’s voters. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 16% of  Likely U.S. Voters have a favorable opinion of Johnson, while 20% offer an unfavorable view. 

The Alligators have set the over-under for Johnson's New Mexico performance on Election Night at five percent. 
 
THE BOTTOM LINES

Our early morning readers Tuesday were treated to some unedited blogging that included a botching of the TV debate dates for the ABQ congressional race featuring Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham and Republican Janice Arnold Jones. We fixed it all up but for the record, here are the joint appearances and TV debates that have so far been scheduled for the duo:

Sunday, Sept 9th - Congregation Albert Brotherhood Debate --11am @Congregation Albert

Tuesday, Sept. 11th--NAIOP Forum, 7:30 am at Albuquerque Marriott

Wednesday, Sept 19--Candidates Forum on Health Care--First Unitarian Church Social Justice Council 6:30 pm

Tuesday, Oct 9th - KNME Debate--7 pm
Thursday, Oct 18th - KOB Debate--7pm
Sunday, Oct 21 - KOAT/Journal Debate--4pm

And one more as told by reader Venessa Chavez Gutierrez:

I love your blog and read it every morning. There is a scheduled debate between Michelle Lujan Grisham and Janice Arnold Jones on Saturday, September 22nd from 5:00--7:00 at the Moriarty Civic Center. Hope you can come you're always welcome in Torrance County....

Thanks, Venessa. Now that we have the dates straight, we just might see you on the trail...

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author  

Sanchez & Sanchez

Here's Sanchez and Sanchez. No, it's not a law firm, although Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez is an attorney--it's two old friends preparing for intense combat as the battle for the New Mexico Legislature begins in earnest.

Leader Sanchez is on the left and pictured with Dem State Senate candidate Clemente "Landslide" Sanchez. The pair were attending Michael Sanchez's recent Belen rally sponsored by public safety workers--including ABQ area fire fighters.

Activity has already been spotted in Michael Sanchez's mostly Valencia County district. Robocalls and hit literature criticizing him have already flowed into the district in what is going to be an expensive campaign to try to oust Sanchez and force a major change in Senate leadership. But it's a long shot. GOP State Rep. David Chavez is the challenger who announced his retirement from the state House saying it was detracting from his law business, only to turn around and accept Susana's invitation for him to challenge Michael Sanchez. This could be one of most expensive legislative races in the state this cycle--if not the most expensive.

We joked on the blog that we had instituted a "Great Chicharrone Fast" because of an emergency procedure he underwent to prevent a heart attack. When he was out of danger we lifted the fast and gobbled down some in his honor. But Sanchez says he isn't celebrating with chicharrones. "It's bean and rice for me," he declared as he greeted well-wishers at his rally. 

In 2008, Clemente Sanchez lost a Dem state Senate primary to David Ulibarri  by less than ten votes, but he came back in this year's June primary to win the Senate primary---by less than ten votes--thus our nickname for him of "Landslide." Ulibarri finished in the back of the pack in that multicandidate field and will leave the Senate after one term.

And Clemente may not shed his nickname this November if the Republicans have their way. They have fielded Vickie Perea for the seat, a veteran politico who knows how to campaign and raise money. The district covers Cibola, Valencia and Socorro counties. Valencia is a new addition to the district and because Vickie is a native there, the R's think they have a shot in the Dem performing district. Clemente will be counting on help from Majority Leader Sanchez there and in turn Sanchez will be counting on his namesake for help in the Senate chamber--that is if voters give both of them tickets to the Roundhouse come November 6.

THE BLEEDING CONTINUES

No one at City Hall talks about it, the press doesn't ask questions about it, yet the slow bleed of jobs that is changing the face of this city goes on and on. The latest:

The Albuquerque metropolitan area lost 1,900 jobs over the 12 months that ended July 30, for a job growth rate of negative 0.5 percent, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions said. It was the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year job losses for the area, which had posted five months of slight gains in 2011. The area’s unemployment rate for July was 7 percent, unchanged from June’s rate. The metro area’s private sector produced a net gain of 200 jobs during the period, for a flat growth rate, the Workforce Solutions Department’s expanded monthly report on the state’s economy said.

ABQ Mayor Berry throws his arms up in the air and blames it all on Washington. But where is the local effort? We hear little. The mayoral election is about a year away.

NOT GOING AWAY

Maybe the mayor and his political adviser Jay McCleskey simply think the jobs issue will take care of itself, that the national economy will kick into gear and that the city will return to the glory days of the Bull Market. Don't count on it.

BBER forecasts that the state and Albuquerque economies will grow but at  historically slow rates. State employment should grow 0.7 percent this  year, 1.2 percent next year, 1.3 percent in 2014 and 1.6 percent in  2015, Reynis said. Albuquerque job growth should be 0.2 percent this  year, 1.3 percent in 2013 and 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2015.

Some organized long-term planning and thinking about this city's economic prospects are long over-due, but the politicians we have seem to think that by not talking about it, they won't be blamed for things going awry. There is a mayoral election next year. Maybe we will finally get some real discussion on the city's top issue?

GOING NEGATIVE

You had to wonder when Dem US Senate candidate Martin Heinrich would finally take a bite out of Republican foe Heather Wilson. Well, after months of being hammered on TV by Heather and third party groups, Heinrich's campaign has responded with this hit on Heather.

He basically throws the kitchen sink at her, saying she voted for tax breaks for the "Wall Street banks" and then "voted to bail them out." Heinrich also slams Wilson for voting for a plan "that would lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare"

It's not as if Wilson hasn't been getting slammed on the tube. It's just that up to this point it has been third party groups in support of Heinrich who have been doing the hammering. This is the first negative TV we've seen on Wilson that come directly from Heinrich's camp.

An interesting note about this ad: It says "Heather Wilson has been in Washington a long time," implying she is still there. She isn't. Wilson served ten years in the US House from ABQ but she is not a current congresswoman. She finished her term at the end of 2008.

Heinrich was elected to the ABQ US House seat in 2008. But no one is bragging about their service there, not with the polls showing voter disapproval for Congress at record lows.

The Heinrich hit should be expected.. Although Heinrich has a healthy lead in all the polls--he has a 7 point lead in the RCP average--Wilson has upped her TV budget as she tries to get this race tightened up in September. It may be her last chance to do so. She will also continue to have plenty of money pouring in from those Super PACs to help her get the job done. Heinrich will use his new ad and presumably others to try to block any September momentum for Wilson.

JANICE VS. MICHELLE

Janice & Michelle

The Janice Arnold-Jones-Michelle Lujan Grisham face-off has been a dud. Not one joint appearance by them since they were nominated in June and not a single news story contrasting their views. And the TV debates that we previously blogged about will come late in the game. Well, maybe not all that late. Grisham's campaign tells us that public station KNME-TV will sponsor a debate at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 9; KOB-TV has one at 7 p.m. Thursday, October 18 and KOAT-TV has a Sunday 4 p.m. debate on Oct. 21

Janice's best shot to shake things up comes Oct. 18th on the KOB face-off. It is in prime time, voters will be paying attention and it comes only two days before early voting begins October 20 when swarms of voters will cast early ballots.

There are also four joint appearances in September scheduled between the pair--none televised. The Sunday, Sept. 9 Congregation Albert debate is another opportunity for Arnold-Jones to make something happen. It is a traditional venue that gets good media coverage.

So the candidates will appear together a total of seven times. But that's a lot less than back in the day when the candidates were sought after by many more public groups.

No public polling on the race has been released. Internal polling by both camps, according to our insiders, shows Michelle ahead. The seat is ranked "likely Dem" by the pundits.

Arnold-Jones is being urged by the Alligators to make the break from the radical right of her party and to position herself in the center in the somewhat centrist district. She did veer away from VP contender Paul Ryan's budget, saying it would be "frightening" for the funding prospects of the national labs, but she then tried to walk back the statement.

We mentioned on the blog yesterday the opposition that Arnold-Jones faces from the ruling faction of her own party--including 2008 ABQ GOP congressional nominee Darren White, now the general manager of the Downs at ABQ. He continues to chide Janice via his Twitter account, most recently praising Grisham's decision to resign from the Bernalillo County Commission. He wrote:

Smart move on MLG's part. Good press coverage in a race that hasn't had much.

That White continues to dig at Janice reveals the deep personal animosity that is a hallmark of their relationship but as her party's official nominee one would think that the R's would attempt to stifle White's public swipes. But then he is a member of the faction that controls the party while the opposition cowers.

Arnold-Jones' handlers, say our analysts, must treat her candidacy as a long shot and emphasize her moderate credentials. That may have made her many enemies in today's GOP, but it gives her appeal to Dems and independents. Arnold-Jones insiders fret that any move away from the party could jeopardize her fund-raising, but her blood supply has already been cut off. It's hard to see how the radical right and the Guv's political machine could do any more damage to the ABQ native.

MEMORY LANE

Former NM GOP Chairman John Lattauzio emails from his home in Utah memories of Democratic State Senate powerhouse Aubrey Dunn who served for 15 years, until 1980, and died of cancer at the age of 84 last week at his Texas home:

Joe, My memories of Aubrey Dunn go back 50 years. His political history is legendary in Otero County. He and I were next-door neighbors for 15 years. As chairman of Senate Finance, he wielded enormous political power. At a breakfast meeting in Santa Fe, he and I sat with an aide and a large stack of bills. Aubrey signed bill after bill over the course of our meal. All bills sent to his committee required his signature before going to the governor. I must mention the dynamics of the Senate at that time. Senator John Conway, now federal district judge, served as senate minority leader. There were eight Republican senators at the time, and Aubrey counted on their support. When I asked John what we got for that support, meaning we Republicans, he replied, “good government.” New Mexico will long remember Aubrey Dunn.  

A funeral for Aubrey Dunn is set for 10 a.m. Sept. 1 at the Cuba Avenue Church of Christ in Alamogordo. The family is asking that in lieu of flowers donations be made to the Portales Children's Home.
 
THE BOTTOM LINES

Can we squeeze in yet another reminiscence of the late NM Dem US Senator Joe Montoya who we blogged about recently, sending a little flood of email to us over "Little Joe" who served in the Senate for two terms ending in 1976. Here's Greg Stricklin of ABQ:

As a young boy of 12  I remember meeting Senator Montoya. His campaign was holding a rally at a park in the Ridgecrest area of Albuquerque around 1970. The rally had advertised free hot dogs so my mom and dad sent me to get some and bring them back home. 

When I got to the park I went straight for the hot dogs. I come from a family of seven and soon realized that I had not brought anything to carry the hot dogs with. I was old enough to know it was probably not right to take so many but young enough to not worry much about the consequences. I quietly stuffed about a dozen or so hot dogs inside my shirt. My shirt was so full that I needed one arm to hold the hot dogs in to keep them from falling out. 

As I was leaving the park thinking I had gotten away unnoticed, I ran straight into Senator Montoya. I could see from the grin and smirk on his face that he knew what I was up to. With a big smile he simply reached out his hand to shake my free hand and politely asked me to ask my parents to vote for him. I will always remember him as a kind and gentle man.....
 
We blogged of the Romney visit last week that it was a four hour drive from ABQ to Hobbs. It's more like five or more, say several readers who take the trip. But then it depends on who is behind the wheel. Hobbs is about 320 miles from ABQ.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Rogers (ABQ Journal)

How much more "humor" are state Republicans going to accommodate from Pat Rogers, their wayward GOP national committeeman and a lawyer/lobbyist who exercises major influence over the Martinez administration? In the age of Akin Pat's disturbing pattern of poking "fun" at Native Americans, gays and Hispanics isn't helping the GOP cause to broaden their party's base.

Rogers has already been forced to resign from the board of directors of the NM Foundation for open Government because of his role in emailgate. His latest leaked email comments that hit the headlines late last week are related to Native Americans and are even more politically toxic. So much so that they are making news around the world.

In the latest email he jokes to the Governor's senior staff that Governor Martinez's recent tribal summit with Native Americans was disrespectful to General Custer. He quickly apologized for the remarks which were in an email to top Martinez administration officials as well as Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey.

Rogers' deep ties to the mainstream media, his position at the Modrall Law Firm and his membership in the upper echelons of the current GOP power clique offers him a degree of protection. But how embarrassing is it for the nation's first Hispanic female Governor to be pulled unto the middle of this crude "joking" as she prepares to be showcased this week at the GOP national convention as an example of how the R's embrace minority advancement? She had to disown the email, but her office was tepid in its criticism:

“...(She) doesn’t agree with the comments in the email, and is proud of the work that has been done to cultivate a strong relationship with New Mexico’s tribes.” 

What? Nothing about bringing Rogers up to Santa Fe for a gubernatorial rebuke? Maybe Susana needs more minorities among her top staff or advisers to perhaps discourage the "playfulness" of Rogers and his ilk in this majority minority-state?

When the Governor looks like the token member of "the club" and not its leader, it's time for some new faces--(that is if she really cares about leading the club).

As for Rogers, he again dismisses any complaints about his public behavior as partisan:

I made a poor attempt at humor in a private email, and it’s being twisted by a partisan group...I certainly intended no offense, but I do apologize.

The Rogers emails have been leaked by the Independent Source PAC, a union-financed group that has been highly critical of the Martinez administration.

State GOP Chairman Monty Newman knows Rogers is in deep and could take the party there, but it sounds as if he wants to see if the issue will fade because he is not calling for Rogers' resignation:

“The exaggerated attempt at humor in Committeeman Rogers’ email regarding the governor’s important meeting with tribal leaders does not reflect the views of the Republican Party of New Mexico. However, we recognize and support the apology he has given.”

That's it? Just what are "the views" of the state GOP, Chairman Newman? The problem here? The R's captured two major offices held by Democrats--Governor and Mayor of ABQ--because of excesses by one and because another stayed around too long. If the Republicans truly want to establish themselves as something more than an occasional back stop,  they are going to have to be sensitive to the concerns of all New Mexicans.

BASHING JANICE

The Pat Rogers-Jay McCleskey-Mickey Barnett-Keith Gardner-Darren White ruling faction of the GOP continues to beat up ABQ GOP congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones like a rented mule. In that June email--just a couple of days after the primary election and in reaction to an article about the Guv's mandated annual meeting with state tribal leaders--Rogers also slams Janice:

Quislings, French surrender monkeys, secret supporters (all along) of JAJ [Janice Arnold Jones]...The state is going to hell. Col. Weh would not have dishonored Col Custer in this manner. I hope who ever recommended this is required to read the entire redist [redistricting law suit] transcript and sit through the entire meeting with the Gov....

Allen Weh and Arnold-Jones ran against Martinez for the 2010 GOP Guv nomination.

The Rogers reference to Arnold-Jones, this year's ABQ GOP congressional nominee, was not included in the newspaper's coverage of this latest Rogers mishap, but it is a major political story playing out in the background. Arnold-Jones is not only the subject of ridicule by Rogers and the gang, but they have also appeared to work to deprive her of campaign funds.

Arnold-Jones is known as a moderate Republican. For example, she does not support the death penalty and during her tenure in the state House she was known for reaching across the aisle. She  also has a reputation for being an advocate for government transparency.

But in the take-no-prisoners, die-before-you-compromise Martinez era, Arnold-Jones is persona non grata. She could make a major splash and begin the process of rebuilding the moderate side of the GOP by calling for Rogers to resign as national committeeman. Until she or other prominent Republicans--(Hello, Heather Wilson) find the courage to stand up to the boys club surrounding this Governor, we appear destined to have government by gridlock and plenty of more "humor."

PUNISHING PAT

Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan represents the northern district whose population is nearly 20% Native American. The Rogers remarks were a lay up for him:

"It's unbelievable that a Republican National Committee leader--and someone so closely tied to the Martinez administration--would say something so reckless and disrespectful.  These types of deplorable actions have no place in politics or government, and they should be condemned by Governor Romney, Governor Martinez, and the RNC."

State Dems also lashed Rogers for his latest mishap, but again, it is up to New Mexico Republicans to police themselves. But courage is hard to find in the face of the club that is wielded against anyone who dares to speak out. From Chairman Javier Gonzales:

I am calling on the Governor to denounce these statements by Pat Rogers at once, but that's not enough. She should also ask the RNC to remove him from his role as committeeman, and she should immediately remove him from her own inner circle and cease doing business with him.

This blast of Rogers from All Indian Pueblo Council (AIPC) Chairman Chandler Sanchez is noteworthy. Native American pressure could end Rogers' tenure as national committeeman:

...I am appalled by the statements made by Pat Rogers...The statements are racist in tone and sadly disappointing coming from someone who should know better. What’s unfortunate is the June 8th remarks appear to be directed at the tribal leaders who were meeting with Governor Martinez at a mandated state/tribal summit on Mescalero Apache homelands.  On behalf of the Pueblo Governors who attended the summit, I demand a public apology from Mr. Rogers to New Mexico’s tribal leaders, and secondly, I call upon the Republican National Committee to remove Mr. Rogers from his official capacity within the Committee...

Resignation would seem the honorable route, no?

THE EMAILS

We said in the first paragraph that the Rogers emails poke fun at Native Americans, gays and Hispanics. We've covered the Native American comment. As for the Hispanic references, here they are:

“[Coca-Cola corporate] are, apparently, of the mind that, perhaps, a Republican NM lobbyist wouldn’t hurt,” Rogers wrote. In an apparent reference to Martinez’ political advisor, Jay McCleskey, he added, “As this is unrelated to the poor Hispanic Dr. Pepper girl that Jay hates, I would appreciate a plug if Beserra calls.”

And this December 15, 2011 email from Rogers to Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner: 

Can you go to lunch with us after the 11 a.m. meeting with the Gov? Merry Christmas. Still can't believe what you did to Sheryl, my half Spanish friend.

The Rogers gay quips came when he was discussing the Governor's appointment of a gay man to the state Public Regulation Commission:
 
“He promised on his boyfriend's grave he would support [PRC member} Pat Lyons for Chair...

And then there's the continuing saga of Rogers' role in winning the state racino lease for the Downs at ABQ, the subject of an investigation by the attorney general and some FBI questioning.

GOVERNOR DURAN

It was announced that in the absence of Governor Martinez this week--who is attending the GOP national convention in Tampa--that Secretary of State Dianna Duran will be acting Governor. It wasn't officially announced, but we're told that in the absence of Jay McCleskey--who is also in Tampa this week--State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair will be the acting "Shadow Governor."

 CLASH FOR THE COURT

Barbara Vigil

A vigorous campaign for the Dem nomination for a vacant state Supreme Court slot concluded Saturday with Dem state Central Committee members handing a second ballot victory to District Court Judge Barbara Vigil of the First Judicial district encompassing Rio Arriba, Santa Fe and Los Alamos counties.

Since no Republican has been elected to the five member court since 1980, Judge Vigil, a 12 year veteran of district court, becomes the instant front-runner.

Her GOP opponent is expected to be well-known ABQ attorney Paul Kennedy who Governor Martinez is expected to appoint to the court to fill the vacancy left by the August retirement of Dem Justice Patricio Serna. The GOP State Central Committee is then expected to name Kennedy as their candidate for the November election. After that, the Vigil-Kennedy race will be joined. The winner will fill out the rest of Serna's term which runs through 2016. Supreme Court justices serve eight year terms.

Vigil, an UNM School of Law graduate, defeated former US Attorney and 2000 Dem ABQ congress candidate John Kelly, a longtime New Mexico power player with ties to Bill Clinton and Senator Jeff Bingaman. The vote was 197 to 178.

Kelly had former NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colon manage his campaign, but it wasn't enough. Vigil had the inside track on the nomination. The retiring Serna was seen as supportive of Barbara as was Chief Justice Petra Maes. The fact that the seat was being vacated by a Hispanic judge was also seen as a factor in Vigil's win.

Kelly and Vigil engaged in a run-off after a first round of balloting ended the candidacies of ABQ Indian law specialist Cate Stetson, Michelle Hernandez of the Modrall Law Firm and Workmen's  Compensation Judge Victor Lopez.

Like Hernandez, Kelly is a member of the Modrall law firm. Some of his supporters felt that the offensive email dealing with Native Americans that was in the news Saturday and was sent by Republican attorney Pat Rogers--also a Modrall atttorney--may have played a bit part in Kelly's defeat.

Vigil, a native New Mexican who lives in Santa Fe and earned her undergraduate degree at New Mexico State, was nominated Saturday by former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez. That signaled that the trial lawyers--a powerful Dem Party interest group--were in her corner.

(Thanks to Stephen Jones of the Dona Ana County Dems for the photo).

MODRALL MESS

More on the mess that the Modrall firm could be in because of Roger's wayward ways. They've escaped past controversy from other Rogers emails. This time it could be different....

The Modrall Sperling law firm is a legacy firm in the ABQ area, but it may be in hot water because of Rogers' way with words. And it could cost them money and clients. The firm has always had GOP leanings--but more of the business variety--not the social issue agenda that some argue has sent the party over the cliff. Let's take a look at the Facebook action:

Attorney Harold A. Monteau is a member of the Chippewa Cree Tribe of Montana and is a graduate of the University of New Mexico School of Law who has practiced in the Indian Law area for 25 years, concentrating on Tribal Government and Jurisdiction. He went after Rogers And Modrall on his Facebook page:

There are no Indians in the firm and very few minority members. Mostly white men. They did have one Indian partner who left the firm and is now a judge. They most often represent clients that

MORE FROM THE TRAIL

Lujan-Grisham & Supporter

We ran into ABQ GOP congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones on the stump recently. Now we've caught up with Dem congressional hopeful Michelle Lujan Grisham as we continue our campaign travels. Here she is pictured with supporter Gretchen Bright at an ABQ North Valley house party.

As our Alligators predicted several weeks ago, Grisham has now resigned from the Bernalillo County Commission effective September 7. That has set off a scramble to replace her among Democrats, with ABQ City Councilor Debbie O'Malley and former Councilor Miguel Gomez two of several politicos who will vie to replace her. (Educator Teresa Brito-Asenap and lawyer Sarita Nairare among the others).

Whose name will go on the November ballot to replace Grisham will be decided by ABQ central committee members from the Dem and Republican parties. Governor Martinez will make an appointment to the seat when Michelle resigns. That is expected to be GOP attorney Simon Kubiak who previously sought the commission seat. That will give the R's a majority on the five member panel for the first time in a long time, even if it is expected to be short-lived. The Dem nominee to replace Grisham will be heavily favored to take the seat in the November election and take office January 1.

THE PASEO FACTOR

If O'Malley gets the Dem nomination from the Central Committee and wins election to the county commission, she would still be on the City Council through the end of the year. That's important to note because Mayor Berry has been trying to get a "super majority" of councilors--seven of the nine--to approve $50 million in bonds to rebuild the I-25/Paseo Del Norte freeway exchange.

O'Malley and two other Dem councilors (Benton and Garduno) instead want the issue to go to the voters for a Nov. 6 decision. Berry would get to appoint a council replacement for O'Malley--giving him his super majority--but not until well after she was elected a county commissioner in November. A decision on Paseo must come before then with O'Malley at the table. That means there is not going to be a super majority for Paseo and the city council is going to have to to put it on the November ballot or put up over $500,000 for a special election.

(There is a also a lawsuit out there that challenges the residency of Dem Councilor Ike Benton that could have him removed from the council, but legal insiders say it has very little chance of succeeding).

Paseo has become mired in the legal weeds, with an attorney general opinion saying the city can't put a city issue like Paseo on the general election ballot because city elections require voters to present a photo ID and state elections do not. The compromise being pushed by Councilor O'Malley is for the City Council and Mayor to agree to suspend the photo ID requirement for this city election only and let the vote for Paseo be held with the November 6 election.

Our City Hall insiders say Berry and the R's are expected to play ball and that we can expect Paseo to be on the November ballot.

The mayor and five Republican councilors are under pressure to support a compromise because it was their insistence that the Paseo project be paired with a controversial sportsplex on the October 2011 city election ballot that caused it to be soundly rejected. That stalled the Paseo rebuild.

Another wrinkle for the R's: Groups seeking an increase in the minimum wage have submitted enough signatures to get the issue on the election ballot. If,  as expected, the Mayor and the R's agree to suspend photo ID for Paseo, they will have little choice but to also put the minimum wage on the November ballot. That could increase turnout for Democratic candidates, but it's a hit the R's would best be advised to take, instead of shouldering blame for further delaying Paseo and forcing an expensive special election.

ADVERTISE HERE

Joe Monahan

That's another edition of the blog and another brimming with the news and analysis you will find only here. It's the stuff that has made us the state's leading political web site, quoted regularly across the USA. This is what the media experts call "must-reading." And our readership will be even wider and deeper as we enter the fall campaign stretch. It's an ideal time for you to advertise your business or candidacy.

Constant exclusive news, analysis backed by decades of experience from the author and his unrivaled sources, a reputation for fair and balanced coverage and a loyal and smart readership all consolidated for you on one web site. That's why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan is your top choice to reach the audience of Campaign 2012.

Drop us an email today for advertising details and put your business or candidate in the thick of today's action and become part of the excitement as we bring this campaign to life.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author