Balderas

There's going to be a lot of work for the Democrat who challenges Governor Martinez for re-election in 2014, but we know it is not going to be State Auditor Hector Balderas who will try to bring her down from her lofty polling heights. Insiders close to Balderas say he will instead launch a bid for attorney general and bypass a Guv run.

Balderas was mentioned as possible '14 Guv contender following his unsuccessful primary challenge of Rep. Martin Heinrich for the Dem US Senate nomination. Balderas lost but he did himself no damage.

Already in the running for the Dem Guv run is Attorney General Gary King. Attorney Sam Bregman is making a lot of noise.

Balderas will be the front-runner for the Dem AG nod, coming off that Senate race which gave him statewide name ID, but there will be plenty of challengers for Hector. They include outgoing Public Regulation Commissioner Jason Marks and maybe Santa Fe city attorney Geno Zamora who is weighing a second try at the Dem AG nod. And that's a short list.

By the way, Balderas and King have often clashed. Hector leaving the Guv's race gives them a chance to make the peace? Balderas is only 39. If he harbors gubernatorial ambitions he will have plenty of time to nurse them.

LEADER UPDATE

Alligators, wall-leaners and assorted hangers-on give us the latest handicapping for leadership in the State House when the Legislature meets in January. State Rep, Kenny Martinez is a lock for Speaker, assuming the Dems retain control of the chamber as they are expected to. So who takes Kenny's place as majority leader? One Senior Gator has the consensus bet:

ABQ State Rep.Rick Miera is probably Ken Martinez’s choice, though Martinez probably won’t get involved too directly....Miera’s selection would allow the new Speaker to appoint a new person to chair the House Education Committee. Miera is not likely to challenge the new Speaker on issues, and will likely be the dutiful type and do as instructed. A new Speaker may want a majority leader to play that kind of role and avoid any threats or dissent on any issues....

The key players say Miera's main competition for the majority leader slot is Rio Arriba State Rep. Debbie Rodella.

NOT SELFISH

O'Malley

A Dem operative blasted ABQ City Councilor Debbie O'Malley on the blog this week, saying her decision to go after the vacancy on the Bernalillo County Commission that was left when Michelle Lujan Grisham resigned to run for Congress is "selfish."

He also said O'Malley leaving the council would mean Republican Mayor Berry would have a "veto proof" council.

There was also some grumbling about O'Malley at the Bernalillo County Central Committee meeting where she was selected last weekend as the Dem candidate for the Grisham seat in the Nov. 6 election. One of her defenders shot back with this:

Your "Dem operative" who called Debbie O'Malley selfish for leaving the city council might not be familiar with legislative work. He thinks a veto-proof majority is important, and in some circumstances it can be. But when the person doing the vetoing is tight with the majority on the council, it doesn't matter at all, other than maybe a vague psychological rallying point for the GOP--"hey, we have 6 votes.  Nifty!"  But nothing substantively changes with Debbie leaving.  

Republicans have enough votes to pass legislation right now and have no trouble working with Mayor Berry to have him sign it. What is the piece of legislation the Dem "operative" imagines would have passed with five votes where liberals would have supported Berry's veto? 

Yes, the council can override a veto, but that only matters if you are on the same side as Mayor Berry when he vetoes the legislation. There's no plausible scenario where progressives are worse off with 3 instead of 4 votes as long as Berry is mayor.  And Dems will get to take the O'Malley seat back in October '13, which is the earliest possible opportunity to break the GOP's stranglehold on ABQ government anyhow.  In the real world, this is a no harm, no foul move, and not selfish on Debbie's part in the least.

O'Malley will face Republican attorney Simon Kubiak at the Nov. 6 election to see who will replace Grisham. The district is mostly Dem and O'Malley is heavily favored. Mayor Berry would appoint a replacement for O'Malley if she leaves the council. 

GOP COUNCIL SPLIT

Dan Lewis

It's not all not rosy for the Republican majority on the City Council and the Republican Mayor. This week Brad Winter accused fellow Republican Dan Lewis of trying to cut a "secret deal" with Dem councillor O'Malley on some key issues before the council. Lewis blasted back hard, rejecting the charges and saying his text messages with O'Malley were actually normal communications. We asked one of our veteran City Hall insiders to analyze the impact of the Lewis-Winter council rift:

Lewis won't run for Mayor against Berry in 2013,, but he will not walk in lock step moving forward. They Mayor already pissed off politically active Pastor Steve Smotherman. Now they went after the preacher on the council. (Lewis is a also a church pastor). The Mayor and his political team are not making friends with the Christian conservatives.

Councilor Winter's policy analyst came from the mayor's office. She is close to Gilbert Montano, the deputy chief administrative officer. Winter is the mayor's Councilor. He carried the mayor's plan to log roll the bond issues for the rebuild of Paseo Del Norte/I-25 and the proposed sportsplex. That was defeated by voters in October 2011. Winter did not chastise the Mayor when the Mayor said it was a council action.

Winter voted against a ladder truck in Lewis's district after the fire chief sent a letter to firefighters telling them the council had budget priorities other than closing a gap in service on the westside.

Also, when Lewis agreed to soften his resolution calling on the Department of Justice to investigate APD, Winter said he did not understand why they needed the resolution...

The Winter-Lewis Republican split. Something to keep our eyes on.

MICHELLE VS. JANICE

We didn't think this was much of an insult on the part of ABQ Dem congressional candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham but a conservative leaning Web site is trying to get some traction over it for trailing GOP challenger Janice Arnold-Jones. Here's the quote:

“After that convention, first of all, I don’t know how anyone could be a Republican. All right. That convention was absolutely incredible because it inspired me not only as a candidate but as a member of this community.”

The website say Grisham "insults" 137,000 (Republican) voters in New Mexico's 1st congressional district and they posted the video of Grisham uttering the "insult."

Grisham holds a 12 point lead over Arnold-Jones in the first ABQ Journal poll released Sunday. And she won't need many Republicans to win as she has an overwhelming lead among Dems.

ALLIGATOR BARF BAG

Reader Susan sends this in reaction to the big story on the blog this week--our exclusive posting of the leaked audio tape of Guv Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Garner in which he called Senate Leader Tim Jennings "a cocksucker" among other phrases that caused a sensation:

Joe, Great job! Thank you for exposing this to light. One of the statements made by Gardner in reference to hiring people-- "I don't care about all that sh*t- I just want someone that can manage people." The "sh*t" he was referring to was education and experience in a given field. That was pretty much an admission that they are not hiring qualified people to fill the vacancies. They aren't governing up there in Santa Fe.  They are too busy playing slash and burn. I get sick to my stomach from all this stuff.  That's when I go get my Alligator skin barf bag.

A Gator barf bag. We may have to order some of those. Given the state of NM politics, we might have a hit on our hands.

 THE BOTTOM LINES

A reader sends this:

Project Share’s eighteenth annual Full Hearts Filling Empty Bowls benefit features extraordinary bowls/pottery donated by New Mexico’s talented potters, on Sunday, September 16 from 11AM to 2PM at Project Share, 1515 Yale SE. Also enjoy delicious soups, breads and desserts from local restaurants, stores and bakeries, and great music by The Alpha Blue Trio and Chris Dracup. And, you can participate in the fantastic silent auction—and other activities!  What a great day—and for a great cause! For more information, please call 452-0585. 

That's it for this week. Thanks for tuning in.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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Not for reproduction without permission of the author 

You might say, "what a waste." Here is Governor Martinez sitting on an approval rating of 69% and her legislative cupboard remains mostly bare. She and her political team have been unable (or unwilling) to transfer the Governor's popularity into legislative results--that's the key difference between her and Dem Governor Bill Richardson who at this point in his first Guv term earned a 63% approval rating.

(Susana had a bounce as a result of the publicity from her speech at the GOP national convention. The poll was taken shortly after the Tampa confab. A poll conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on July 17 had her approval rating at 59%.)

As we've blogged repeatedly, Martinez has remained popular because she has shied away from the very agenda that was front and center at that GOP convention. She has maintained ample budgets for Medicaid and education. And she hasn't even bothered to introduce to the Dem-controlled Legislature any of the anti-union measures that have gotten her fellow Republican Governors in so much trouble. In other words, for most voters no news from Santa Fe has been good news--and that has been good news indeed for this Governor's personal popularity.

But even when Susana desperately wants something from the Legislature, she is unable to convert  personal popularity into legislative strength. That's because she and her political team have tried to lead by intimidation--not gentle arm twisting backed up by pressure from hometown voters.

THE DELUSION?

After winning the ABQ mayor's office and the Governor's office, her political team seem to suffer from a delusion that negative campaigning is going to switch control of the New Mexican Legislature to the R's. It isn't. But as long as the administration is governed by that delusion, there is little hope for compromise.

From the beginning they have used robocalls and hit literature in the districts of recalcitrant legislators in an effort to make them go their way. It has been an utter failure, with her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented workers going up in flames three times and her education bills stalled. How revealing is it that the repeal proposal garners support from 71% of the electorate yet this Governor and her legislative team can't advance the ball?

Martinez could craft a route of compromise and begin breaking the legislative gridlock in Santa Fe, but after nearly two years in office we don't think she is really interested. And she is not alone. Senior Democratic members of the Legislature have been more than comfortable with a stalled and minimalist agenda.

The Democrats have been flat on their back since Big Bill departed. They have not mounted  sustained criticism of the Governor, despite the cracks in her political foundation that have developed--emailgate, the down and dirty Downs at ABQ racino deal and the recent Gardner tape. These mishaps have yet to collated by the political professionals and presented in a campaign format. And the mainstream press continues to honeymoon with the Governor, even as we approach the two year mark of her administration.

However, there are signs that the Dems may soon find their voice. They have formed a number of political action committees with healthy cash balances and appear ready to finally push back,

So what's the bottom line? Martinez can bask in the glow of high popularity, but it is doing little to advance the economic and social standing of the state which continues to sink or stagnate, even as surrounding states crawl out of the long recession. Much like government under Gary Johnson--the last GOP Governor here--we remain in a state of perpetual gridlock. If this Governor really wants more than simply her own re-election, she has yet to convince us.

IMPOVERISHED NM

What are we talking about when we blog of economic and social stagnation? Something like this:

The Census Bureau reports more New Mexicans are living in poverty and nearly a fifth of the state’s population lacks health insurance. The agency reported Wednesday the poverty rate in New Mexico was about 20 percent in 2010-2011 compared with almost 19 percent in 2009-2010.

Where's the leadership on that?

MINIMUM TO THE BALLOT

Public TV producer Matt Grubs points out that on the same day the disappointing news on New Mexico poverty hit the wires, the NM Supreme Court cleared the way for ABQ voters to decide Nov. 6 an  increase the city's minimum wage from $7.50 to $8.50 an hour.

Mayor Berry and City Council Republicans fought tooth and nail to keep it off the general election ballot because it will have a much better chance of passing there then at a special election. But it will be far from a cakewalk for wage supporters who managed to gather enough petition signatures to place it on the ballot.

There will be business money flowing in to defeat it and look for Berry political adviser Jay McCleskey to organize the anti-wage campaign. Supporters are unlikely to raise big campaign cash.

Still, this high court ruling is a major blow to the R's. There will be campaigning for the increase and it will attract lower income voters to the polls who are more likely to vote for Dem candidates on the ballot. That's why Berry and the R's fought so hard to try to keep it off the ballot.

LATEST POLLING

The Sunday Journal poll got the Repubs in a tizzy as it showed a 45-40 race between Obama and Romney in New Mexico, but the Dem-oriented PPP poll comes with a new survey taken by automatic phone calls from Sept. 7-9 showing Obama leading Romney 53-42. PPP did not include Gary Johnson in their survey who had 7% in the Journal survey but appears to be fading fast.

The GOP trash talked the survey saying all PPP polls are suspect but most of us who have to follow all of them find PPP to be about as reliable as most of them out there.

The PPP survey shows Dem Martin Heinrich leading Republican Heather Wilson 50-41. The Journal had it 49-42 for Heinrich. Heather's unfavorable rating in PPP is an untenable 50%. PPP says it interviewed over 1,000 "likely voters." That means the margin of error is 2.9%.

So where are things at? The Journal poll looks like it underestimated Obama a tad. The paper's  analysis that the state could again become a battleground state because of their poll is wide of the mark.

In the Senate race, all polling agrees that Heinrich is well ahead and suspense is starting to fizzle.

WHY SO HIGH?

On that poll showing Governor Martinez winning a 69% approval rating, Rio Rancho reader Joe Barela writes:

I am truly at a loss to understand today’s Journal poll for Susana Martinez being at 69% approval given her Chief of Staff problems, the NM Finance Authority debacle and our State’s lack luster economy.  It just doesn’t add up.  Those are very serious problems and there are more.   It really does makes you wonder if the media are purposefully keeping these issues out of the limelight.  Can Mr.& Mrs. NM be that out of touch?    

Readers continue to email in about the now infamous audio tape of a potty-mouthed Keith Gardner, Martinez's chief of staff. Here's another:

If you go 58 minutes and 20 seconds into the recording Gardner is talking about a volley ball coach Eric   Zamora. Gardner describes him as a short "Mexican" guy. Does that mean he has a problem with the "Mexican" on the fourth floor. Didn't Susana have a problem with a Democratic state representative referring to her as the Mexican on the fourth floor?

State Rep. Sheryl Williams Stapleton referred to the "Mexican on the Fourth Floor." She has since apologized. Gardner has not apologized for the obscenity-laced diatribe he launched against Senate leader Tim Jennings. Among other things, he called him a "cocksucker."

NOT ALL BAD

There is a dollop of good biz news to send your way:

Air USA will relocate its headquarters from Quincy, Ill., to Albuquerque. The company, which does military combat training with foreign-made fighter planes, is expected to employ up to 200 in the Duke City.

We hope this doesn't upset the Tea party and others in the anti-government crowd, b Air USA is a defense contractor, getting its money from the USA government. Governor Martinez has pined for private sector funded jobs, but she was in front of the train Wednesday announcing these jobs.

You bet she was.

WIENER'S LAMENT

That profanity laced audio tape of Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner that was released on the blog this week drew the attention of outgoing GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Wiener. The Guv called on him to resign when Wiener was pictured in the Philippines enjoying the company of several young women. The speculation about his relationship with them led to his political demise in the June primary. Now Wiener emails in and wonders why Martinez isn't taking Gardner to the woodshed over his moral lapses as caught on the leaked tape:

I'm in absolute shock that Keith Gardner--arguably the second most powerful person in the state--wasn't the lead story in the ABQ Journal for his extremely profane comments and unapologetic abuses of power.  If anyone ever had any doubts that the Journal is biased and plays favorites, look at the difference between how the Journal covered Gardner and how they destroyed me.

I'm a lowly County Commissioner, Gardner is the Governor's Chief of Staff. Gardner is on tape calling respected elected officials "mother-fuckers" and "cock-suckers,"brags about being able to get traffic violations dismissed by his daddy, offers to slide his friend into a high-paying government job and brags about circumventing open government laws by private e-mail. I had my picture taken while on a trip to visit my daughter. I broke no laws, was on my own dime/on my own time--with my fiancee standing 5 feet away. Guess who made the front page of the Journal day after day after day after day--and who didn't?
 
They run the Journal like it's the glorified mouthpiece of an out-of-control high school clique and as more and more people catch on to that fact, the more and more the circulation, readership and relevancy of the Journal will continue to drop.

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Keith Gardner

The email poured in reaction to the sometimes shocking rants of Governor Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner contained on a leaked audio tape and disclosed here for the first time on Tuesday.

Gardner's repeated use of salty language (to put it mildly), his attitude and the state of the governorship all came in for reader scrutiny in the aftermath of the tape shocker. Here's a sample from ABQ:

These tapes do more than just reveal Gardner's penchant for foul language and his dislike of various people. It really shows how pedestrian this gubernatorial administration is in its approach to governing. I think there is an expectation, at an economically challenging time for the state, that the governor's chief of staff would be working intensely--every minute of the day--at the highest levels to address the massive problems in new Mexico.

Instead he is having an hour and a half discussion with some buddy from Roswell that reads like a scene from Fast Times at Ridgemont High. All it's missing is a few references to "bro's" and "dude's"

Governor Martinez ought to be hugely embarrassed by this--but she won't be. This is what you get when you hire a small town district attorney to be governor. She was a mediocre administrator who made poor hires as DA and we're seeing an exacerbation of this same traits coming out in the governorship. She runs the place like it's Mayberry and Keith is just the happy go lucky goofy deputy sheriff. And all this hullabaloo is just the way town folks talk.....

This is not a serious governorship. They aren't taking on the big issues and addressing them like professionals and adults. They're mired in petty B.S. and it's time to get serious.

Reader and Democrat Stephanie DuBois comes with this:

Joe, I just want to know if Keith the good Mormon eats with that mouth. His language is enough to make the Mormon Bishop blush. And Joe, there are those that think Republicans are nice. I wonder if the Governor's popularity will take a fall over this. No respect to Senator Jennings who is a very powerful legislator with many friends on both sides of the aisle. That is why he has stayed there for 33 years. We have a Governor and staff that in two years has certainly undermined our New Mexico government. The Governor should fire Keith but she won't. Maybe the Mormon church should sanction him for language unbecoming a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints.

And another:

Tuesday's blog is dead on. It exposes Keith Gardner for what he is: an arrogant pompous ass. I wonder if Susana is happy that she ran to his defense after hearing this recording. The statement that stands out and shows what a two faced person Keith is, is the statement he made about Senator Tim Jennings. If you will remember, when Keith created the state job for his wife it was Senator Jennings who came to Keith's defense. The folks in Roswell should be very happy with Keith after hearing how Keith hates Roswell and the people there.I know the Mormon Elders must be proud of him. I wonder if his daddy the judge is going to get him out of this mess. 

FROM ROSWELL

We posted the entire hour and thirteen minutes of the Gardner tape. We did not summarize the part this reader is concerned with, but give him the floor to rebut statements made in the recording:

Mr. Monahan: My name is S. Doug Jones Witt. I am an attorney in Roswell. I successfully defended David Lawrence with regard to the allegations made by Kayla Powell against Coach Lawrence. I was shocked to hear the full and uncensored conversation between Brian Powell and Keith Gardner on your blog. 

Let me state for the record: I have never had a "substance abuse problem" as referenced by Mr. Gardner. I have never been arrested or investigated for any alcohol or drug-related offense. On the contrary, I began my legal career as a prosecutor in the Ninth Judicial District Attorney's Office and prosecuted drug and alcohol cases for four (4) years...I left the DA's office in 1998 and joined the law firm of Sanders, Bruin, Coll & Worley, where, after 5 years, I achieved partner status.  

Mr. Gardner alludes to an ex-employee of his who shared this false information about me. Her name is (was at the time) Stacey Hendrix (not sure on spelling).  Mrs. Hendrix was accused of stealing money from a local business here in Roswell and ultimately received other charges which led to the violation of her conditions of release and her incarceration.  These facts are easily confirmed through a basic search in New Mexico Courts.com.  Again, I have absolutely no documented history of substance abuse. I consider Mr. Gardner's comments to Mr. Powell defamation of the highest order and have contacted legal counsel to discuss my rights. 

Helen Laura Lopez writes from Taos

You are on fire again!

Another reader, commenting on a reference Gardner made, said it is a boarhog, not warthog:

"Worthless as teats on a boarhog." The Arkansas Times used it against their Governor.

A reader writes:

Wow! is all I can say about Tuesday's post..

Cathy Chavez emails:

Joe-- In all the years I have followed your blog, you hit one out of the park with Tuesday's Keith Gardner column. Keep up the great work.

Thanks for that, Cathy. We are confident we made the right call in publishing and if we have to stand alone, so be it. Read on...

WHERE'S THE MEDIA?

A number of readers and politicians wanted to know whey the sensational revelations in the Gardner tape have not made their way into the mainstream media, even though the tape has been out there for a week. (They started to cover after our Tuesday blog. See below).

News organizations last week did quote the segment of the tape in which Gardner says he does not use a state email account because it could be dragged into court and he doesn't want to go to jail. They've also referenced the portion where Gardner is talking about replacing the state fair manager, but the rest of the tape had been ignored--despite what it says about the relationship between the leaders of two branches of the state's government and what impact that will have on public policy and the taxpayers. That's why we deemed it newsworthy. One of our Senior Alligators came with this:
 
The hands-off/kid glove treatment Gov. Martinez has received throughout E-mailgate shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. It's how the news media works these days.

It starts at the top with the corporate and upper management types who are way too cozy with the politicos they're supposed to keep an eye on and goes right down to the beat reporters who re-hash and regurgitate press releases from political PIOs they (more often than not) used to work with.

There's also the fear factor.  There are no consequences from the public if a reporter or news organization goes easy on the Governor and her cronies.  But on the other hand, upset the Governor or political Svengali Jay McCleskey and your on the "Enemies List."  Bottom line: the news media needs to stop sucking up to the Powers That Be and needs to start covering them - the way Edward R. Murrow would.

There's something to be said about the intimidation factor. The political team of the governor has been known to put the pressure on upper management and that has trickled down to reporters' coverage. But our job--and theirs--is to put the heat on them---"them" being whoever happens to be in power. 

As we said, coverage is starting to trickle out. The alternative weekly, the Santa Fe Reporter, examines the Gardner tape in an article titled "Giant in the Dark."

KOAT-TV did a report on the Gardner tape (to its credit) Tuesday night. They asked the Governor about it and she said the conversation was a private one between two men who have since patched things up? But what about Gardner's profanity laced diatribe against Senator Jennings? Should he apologize? Will she discipline him?

And the Santa Fe New Mexican comes with coverage in its Wednesday editions. Senator Jennings makes his first comments:

Jennings expressed surprise about Gardner’s statements. “His wife and family, I thought we all were friends,” Jennings said. He said his son was friends with Gardner’s son. He said he didn’t understand what Gardner was referring to regarding the first day of the session and didn’t recall Sanchez telling him to “tone it down.” Jennings said he didn’t like the sentiments or the language Gardner used, but said he wouldn’t hold it against him. “Hate and destruction have no place in government,” he said.

Scott Darnell, a spokesman for the governor, said in an email Tuesday that Gardner and Jennings “have been able to work together, even though there have been heated disagreements in private over various policies. Keith is not proud of his language, but this particular private conversation took place a year ago and the two have talked and worked together since then on multiple occasions. Just like when the Governor has been disparaged or called names by legislators … we are moving on and won’t allow that to distract us from doing the work the people of New Mexico expect and deserve.”

MET HIS MATCH?

Has Jay met his match? Out-of-state Dem union money is coming in to match the out-of-state oil money that has largely financed Governor Martinez's PAC and another political PAC--both run by Martinez's controversial political guru Jay McCleskey. The AP says:

Labor unions and a retiring Democratic legislative leader have provided nearly $400,000 to a newly formed political group planning to make independent campaign expenditures in New Mexico, including races that will determine whether Democrats retain control of the Legislature...The committee raised $393,816 in July and August, and has most of that left after spending only $62 for a bank fee and the costs to register as a political committee in New Mexico. The super PAC allied with Martinez — Reform New Mexico Now--had cash-on-hand of $305,000 as of last week after raising $281,000 in the past two months.

R's were quick to point out that Amanda Cooper, a longtime political aide to former Governor Big Bill, is involved in the new Patriot Majority fund that will counter McCleskey. Our insiders report that David Contarino, a longtime political strategist and former Chief of Staff to Richardson will also be working with the PAC.

The R's may try to connect the two to the scandals of the past, but most Dems are happy to have the pair on the ground here. McCleskey has been running riot without any real opposition. With the experienced Cooper and Contarino, suddenly there will be some checks and balances.

NOT THAT LONG

 Governor Martinez, as expected, appoints 38 year old GOP attorney Simon Kubiak to the Bernalillo County Commission. He will face Debbie O'Malley in November in a contest for the North Valley and Westside seat. That gives the Republicans a three person majority on the commission--their first in nearly forty years. We said it would last at least until the end of the year, but a spokesman for Michelle Lujan Grisham, the ABQ Dem congressional candidate whose resignation created the vacancy filled by Susana, says that is not the case:

Joe, You reported --and so did the Journal and TV--that the governor's appointment to the county commission would serve till the end of the year. We had researched that when Michelle was considering resigning, and it appears the governor's appointment would only serve through election day. The winner of the election would seemingly take over the day after the election, unless it's the same person. So it would seem the Republican majority has less than two months, not the four months everyone assumes. I don't know what the governor's appointment letter says. Here is the language in the statute:

If a vacancy occurs in the office of district attorney or county commissioner , the governor shall fill such vacancy by appointment, and such appointee shall hold such office until the next general election. His successor shall be chosen at such election and shall hold his office until the expiration of the original term. (As amended November 8, 1988.)  

Okay, so if O'Malley beats Kubiak Nov. 6 the Republican majority ends--we assume--when the election results are certified. That would give them several more weeks in the majority beyond November 6.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Clara Apodaca announces her retirement as president and CEO of the Foundation at the National Hispanic Cultural Center...The proposal to have ABQ voters decide on an increase in its minimum wage at the November 6 election met its Waterloo in court Tuesday. A judge ruled the petition asking for the public vote is flawed.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author    

Martinez & Gardner

Now that Governor Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner has called Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings "a cocksucking son of a bitch," how does she do business with the majority Dems in the Senate?

Yeah, we thought that might grab your attention, but we're just getting started. Grab your Starbucks and read on as we explore the unplugged world of Keith Gardner, who after this bout of publicity may switch to sign language when he meets you.

And remember that moniker the tall and lanky Gardner was given when he was in the Legislature as a state rep from Roswell? It was "Gentle Giant." Well, the giant reveals that he has a not so gentle temper and he has just stepped his big foot in a towering pile of political dung.

Here we go, kids.....

You've probably heard or read about bits and pieces of the over one hour long audio recording from October 2011 that was taped by Brian Powell, a city of Roswell employee involved in a legal matter with Gardner, 45, and his family. (It is being posted in its entirety here and here for the first time).

The tape was brought to light by attorney Sam Bregman. We've had our Alligators examine the recording so we could put the most sensational and newsworthy quotes in one place. And we don't use the word sensational lightly.

More background on how this tape came about later, but first put on your gas mask and protective gloves as we dive deep into Keith's world.

HE'S A PRICK, TOO

Sen. Jennings

Here's the complete uncensored quote from Gardner on Roswell area Senator Jennings, a key power player in the Senate who was first elected in 1979:

 Fuck...special session kicked my ass. I hate those fuckers. I hate fucking Tim Jennings so bad right now...Oh God I hate him! He’s a cocksucking son of a bitch. So it’s all good. We’re fine. We’re fine..things are good.

We suppose Gardner was thinking things were good after that tirade because the special session he referred to was finally over. But while things may be "fine," political retribution is not far from the chief of staff's mind. Here's more of Gardner's rant that is going to make La Politica history: 

BRIAN--How is she liking the job as Governor?

GARDNER--She loves it. She has her days when she is like, “these people are so stupid.” She hates Tim Jennings right now, it’s so funny.. And he is just being as asshole....Fucking prick. I mean a total prick. He was such a prick on that first day of the session that (Senate Majority Leader) Michael Sanchez told him to tone it down. That tells you how big of a prick he was. When Michael is telling him to tone it down, that he is being disrespectful. And Michael hates the Governor. Yeah. So, Tim has been just a son of a bitch. He and I have been fighting. God, we’ve been fighting.

B- Is he going to run again.
 
GARDNER: Yeah I think so. What else does he have to do? We are going to find someone to run against him. We raised half a million dollars just to run one set of races. We are gonna try to raise another five hundred to a million. 

Jennings is a popular Democrat in a conservative SE NM district. He was unopposed in the June 2012 primary. In November he has a young Republican opponent in Cliff Pirtle who would be the ostensible beneficiary of the monetary largess Keith refers to. It remains to be seen how much the Gov's political action committee pumps into Pirtle's effort, especially in light of these quotes from Gardner.

As for Jennings, we await any response he cares to give, besides the big belly laugh we hear up here in ABQ echoing from the SE NM ranch where he lives.

TITS ON A WARTHOG

The entertainment continues as Keith recalls an incident in Roswell when he was pulled over for speeding:

Brian--Sheriff’s office. Sheriff’s office is in charge of that. Britt Snyder. You know Brett. Son of a bitch. You know Britt is in Reserve. I’ve known Brett my whole life.

GARDNER- Worthless as tits on a warthog. I like Britt, we get along fine, but that son of a bitch. He was a new cop and he pulled me over 20 some years ago. In Reserve. I passed some car going five miles an hour in a no passing zone. My dad was a judge. I’m like, “Britt, write me the fucking ticket or leave me alone. I was leaving on my mission to Spain for two years the next day. Either write me the ticket or leave me alone. You know if you write the ticket I’ll get it dismissed because my dad is the judge so, write the fucking ticket I don’t care.

The mission to Spain that Gardner mentions was part of his service as a Mormon, although his mixing in the "F word" in his recounting of his ticket story might not settle so well with the elders of that conservative religion.

ARROGANT KEITH

Gardner is sometimes brash, dripping with machismo, sometimes defensive and sometimes arrogant in the recording. Here's arrogant Keith:

GARDNER--Oh shit, I hired a PIO away from a public relations firm and next thing you know I’m getting hit.

B- You are?

GARDNER-Yeah. Because she is my friend.

B-Who is?

GARDNER--Her name is Aimee Barabe. And they are like, “Oh she gets a sweet job because she is friends with Keith Gardner. But it is a one day hit. I don’t give a shit. Why can’t I put people in there that I trust? That is what my job is.

Well, hiring a PIO may be a one day hit, but this tape of Keith is going to follow him to the grave. (Barabe is the spokeswoman for the Department of Health).

MONEY LINES

And here are the money lines from the tape that have been widely reported. Gardner discusses why he never uses state email to communicate:

That is all discoverable. That is why I never e-mail on my state e-mail, anything that can come back to bite my ass, it is all done offline. Shit I never use my state e-mail, because it is all done on different stuff. I don’t want to go to court or jail.

Well, Keith, if they could put people in jail for swearing too much, you'd get the maximum sentence.

And then there's this quote that KOB-TV has reported. It's Gardner telling Powell how he might be able to get him the state fair manager job, a position currently held by Dan Mourning, a former restaurant owner and a close friend of Darren White, the former GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff who is now general manager of the Downs at ABQ which is located on the fairgrounds.

Let me get with (Deputy Chief of Staff) Ryan (Cangiolosi) and get serious, tell him I want something. Find me something. Maybe an opening for state fair manager, I’m about to fire that fucker. I’m so pissed. God they screwed up, those guys could screw up a wet dream. So many headaches. 

Anyone who has been in politics is going to empathize with Gardner for unknowingly being taped, but won't sympathize, Chiefs of staff have license to be tough-talking but they are supposed to be smart enough to not do it on tape and embarrass their boss--the Governor--even in a state like ours that allows secret taping if only one party agrees to it.

KEITH IN CONTEXT

For context on all of this, here's how the ABQ Journal reported the background on this story:

...Gardner was talking in Roswell to Brian Powell, a city of Roswell employee (Sam) Bregman represents in a civil lawsuit unrelated to ongoing email controversies involving the administration. Gardner was in Roswell to speak at a meeting of a regional economic development group. During their one-hour and 13-minute conversation, Gardner and Powell--who Bregman said made the recording without Gardner’s knowledge--begin talking about a sexual assault case involving members of their respective families. That led to discussing email messages sent by relatives of the alleged perpetrator regarding the case.

Gardner, on the tape, said that material was “discoverable” and could be seized because it was on school system computers. He urged Powell to pursue that and then said the state, in other cases, had seized computers from people’s desks for forensic examinations. Gardner said: “That’s all discoverable; that’s why I never email on my state email, anything that can come back and bite my ass. It’s all done offline. … It’s all done on different stuff. Because I don’t want to go to court and jail." 

An apparent shadow government that communicates off the record, a complete and total breakdown in legislative relationships, the down and dirty Downs at ABQ racino deal and now the Gardner Tapes. What's a Governor to do?

FOLLOW THE MONEY 

The AP reports from Santa Fe on the cash coming in to influence the state legislative races. It's the trial lawyers for the Dems and Susana and Jay for the Rs.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We had the spread right in the latest poll in the US Senate race in our first draft of the Monday blog. Seven points separate Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson. But the numbers posted said Heinrich 49 to Wilson's 41. For the record, the Journal poll has Heinrich at 49 and Wilson at 42...

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Republicans are ecstatic that they are about to have a majority on the Bernalillo County Commission for the first time in decades. But it's probably only going to last a few months so they'll have to make the best of it.

This weekend members of the central committees of the Bernalillo County Democratic and Republican parties picked candidates for the commission seat that has become vacant with the resignation of Michelle Lujan Grisham--the ABQ Dem congressional candidate.

The Dems picked ABQ City Councilor Debbie O'Malley over Sarita Nair on a 58 to 46 vote. A run-off was forced between them when none of the three candidates received a majority on the first ballot. On that first ballot Debbie had 46 votes, Sarita had 34 and Miguel Gómez had 25.

The R's selected (by acclamation) attorney Simon Kubiak. They will face off in November and with the district heavily Dem, O'Malley is the odds on favorite to win the election to fill out Grisham's term which expires at the end of 2014..

Meantime, Governor Martinez is expected to name Kubiak to the commission where he will serve until the the winner of the November election begins the new term January 1. If that's him, he will stay on. For now it will mean there will be three R's and two Dems on the panel. And what will the R's do with their new found majority? Well, for starters look for them to try to increase the number of sheriff's deputies. And also look for them to send shivers up the spines of government union leaders as they take a look at personnel policies and even the unions contracts.

The commission will also get a new chairman. Hey, how about Michael Wiener? Really. He is on the commission until the end of the year and knows how to cut a deal--not withstanding the scorching he received over his escapades in the Philippines and which cost him when he lost the June GOP primary. The other two R's will be Martinez's appointment (Kubiak) and Commissioner Wayne Johnson.

CITY COUNCIL IMPACT

Meanwhile, over at the city council--controlled by the R's with a 5 to 4 majority--O'Malley will remain on that body until the end of the year--even if she wins election in November. But if and when she departs, Republican Mayor Richard Berry will get the opportunity to appoint someone to fill O'Malley's seat.

O'Malley beat two other opponents at the Central Committee Saturday meeting, but there was plenty of grumbling about her leaving the city council. This Dem operative put it this way:

Such selfishness. If she wins then Berry and Jay McClesky will have a veto proof council which is terrible  for all Albuquerqueans regardless of party affiliation.

And who might Berry appoint to replace O'Malley? A number of names are floating around, but one that grabs our attention is Katherine Martinez, head of the state's Construction Industries Division of the state Regulation and Licensing Department. In 2007, she ran against O'Malley for the ABQ North Valley seat. Martinez was a Democrat back then. We will check on her current registration.

We noticed Katherine upping her profile lately with public service announcements on the TV stations. Could she be Berry's chosen one and be able to hold the seat? If she is still a Dem, she would have a better chance, even as she joined with the council R's on key issues.

Martinez (Katherine Carroll) was born in North Carolina and moved to New Mexico in 1999 with her native New Mexican husband. She has an extensive resume and before joining the Martinez administration was government affairs director for the Central NM Homebuilders Association.

Martinez would have to give up her state job to move up the ladder, but the lure of La Politica does have a price. Let's keep our eyes on this one....
 
MINIMUM WAGE MESS

Maybe there will be some court resolution today to the minimum wage mess brought about by the negligent ABQ City Council and Mayor. (Proponents of increasing the wage from $7.50 to $8.50 an hour didn't help matters when they included a typo on the petition that citizens signed and which called for an election on the proposal.) Meanwhile, here's Dem attorney and Public Regulation Commissioner Jason Marks explaining that the game downtown is to keep the measure from going on the November 6 ballot which would increase its chances of passing:

In reading the Journal story and editorial Saturday about the judicial maneuvering around the minimum wage ballot measure, something didn't make sense. They say the two sides tried going directly to the NM Supreme Court, because "one side or the other" would have appealed any decision coming out of District Court. Obviously, the wage hike proponents would appeal a negative decision by the District Court. But City Clerk Amy Bailey's previous position has been that she didn't think she had authority on her own to add the measure to the ballot absent a City Council resolution or a court order (because of conflicts between city and state election rules).  

So, a lower court ruling in favor of adding the measure to the ballot (and potentially fixing the typo that's been identified) should have been acceptable to the Clerk. But instead, it looks like the City Clerk and City Attorney may be actively trying to keep minimum wage hike off the ballot. If that's the case, who authorized or directed the City Attorney to fight tooth and nail to prevent the wage hike from getting on the ballot and why?

Who authorized the city attorney to fight to keep the measure off the November 6 ballot where it could have a decent chance of passing because of large turnout in a presidential election year and could also draw Dem voters to the polls who would not vote for R candidates?

Geez, Jason, now who would want to do that? Could it be Republican Mayor RJ Berry? Could it be Berry's chief political adviser Jay McCleskey? Could it be the Republican majority on the ABQ City Council? I don't know, Jason. That's a tough one. Do you think we should sign up a private eye to get to the bottom of it?

HEINRICH VS. WILSON

It's early September but Dem Martin Heinrich is only one point away from the magic 50% mark, according to the first in a series of ABQ Journal polls released Sunday. It's Heinrich 49% to GOP contender Heather Wilson's 42%. Eight percent are undecided. MOE is 3.8%.

Heinrich builds a commanding seven point lead over Wilson by scoring 60% support among Hispanics and pulling a muscular 76% among all Democrats. Those are numbers on which you ride to the US Senate. Wilson needs a major campaign event to shake up the race if she is to pull off the upset. There are three statewide TV debates scheduled between the pair and Wilson never needed them more.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff notes that Wilson is getting 53 percent of the independents. But it's crossover Dems (and Hispanics) she needs now and she's not getting them.

We and others have said Wilson needs to make a cleaner break from some national GOP policies, a high-risk move, but this poll confirms it may be her best chance. She could also use some help from Heinrich who has run an error free campaign.

Wilson's campaign reacted stoically to the survey, saying, "Let the comeback begin." She will fight to the end as is her style, giving Heinrich no reason to rest no matter what the polls say. One major flub and Wilson is more than capable of seizing the moment.

The Journal poll is the latest a long line of surveys since June that have Heinrich leading the contest. The National Republican Senatorial Committee recently cancelled plans to buy TV for Wilson. Getting them--and the electorate--interested in this race again is going to take some doing.

NM Politics with Joe Monahan ranks the open US Senate seat here "lean Dem."

OBAMA VS. ROMNEY

We continue to rank the presidential race in New Mexico "lean Dem," notwithstanding the Journal poll Sunday that has Obama at 45%, Romney at 40% and former NM Governor Gary Johnson with 7%. While those aren't deadly numbers for Romney and we still could have a relatively close finish, it's hard to see Romney's path to victory here. In other words, the Alligators see the headline in the Sunday Journal that screamed "Presidential Race Close" as a bit of a stretch. The AP called it "a small lead" for Obama which we think better sums up the situation. The newspaper started polling September 3 and ended its polling the day before President Obama gave his acceptance speech to the Democratic National Convention.

The average of all the presidential polls here has Obama leading Romney by about nine points. A PPP poll in July also showed a five point race here so we don't find the Journal results surprising.

Remember, you can't have a "battleground state" until someone starts battling. It is revealing that neither the Obama or Romney campaigns have bought broadcast TV time here. (Third party groups have.) The state can not be considered back in play until one of the campaigns starts spending a lot of money here. What are their polls showing?

As in the Senate race, it appears the Republican contender needs a big event to shake up the race, otherwise it will follow the demographics of the state and naturally drift to the Democrat.

The poll shows former Republican and now Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling equally from both Romney and Obama, but in the end we--and our stable of experts--believe he will hurt Romney more. How much is the question.

The Alligators have set the over/under on Johnson at 5% for Election Night. Historically, a third party candidate continues to lose support as we head for the finish. With Johnson now at 7%--down from double digits in other polls this summer--he could very well dip below 5% if he does not do TV advertising.

Obama is getting 56% of the Hispanic vote and 71% of the Dems--numbers he can easily improve on to put the race away. Third party groups have been advertising against him in the state and that could be helping to keep the lid on him. As we said earlier, neither the Romney or Obama campaigns have bought TV time here. If Romney has any hope of restoring New Mexico's status as a battleground or swing state, it will be up to him to spend the money to do so--not Obama whose lead will stand if it goes untested.

As we begin the final two months, Heinrich and Obama appear well-positioned here. But campaigns are all about the unexpected and the unanticipated. The Republicans are hanging on just enough to take advantage if anything should fall into those categories and burst into the headlines.

NM Politics with Joe Monahan ranks the presidential race here "lean Dem." 

JANICE VS. MICHELLE

We're headed for a blow-out in the ABQ US House race unless GOP contender Janice Arnold-Jones comes with big bucks. She trails Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham by 12 points in the ABQ Journal poll--46% to 34%. Republicans aren't helping Janice enough. She polls only 66% of them. Is her "moderate" reputation hurting her with them?

NM Politics with Joe Monahan ranks the ABQ congressional race as "likely Democratc."

DETAILS PLEASE

The political community looks forward to the Journal surveys, but a new generation of readers is demanding more--like complete cross tabs from the poll as is now customarily disclosed by nearly all credible polling organizations. The Journal is still holding back. They give you a few from each survey but we are not getting complete survey results by gender or age and other cross tabs. We also need the margin of error for the small subsamples like independents.

The paper's polling secrecy conflicts with its dedication to increase transparency for public institutions. Hopefully they will reconsider their position.

TOURISM DEBATE

Let's keep it on the city beat as we rejoin the debate over the downturn in the city's tourist economy, with the return of the Senior Alligator who faults the ABQ Convention and Visitors Bureau (ACVB).

He hit with a piece here August 2 in the wake of the news of the decline in Lodgers' Tax revenue and the forlorn city Convention Center. Then Dale Lockett, head of ACVB, came with this blog retort. Lockett came back again, this time in the newspaper--touting ACVB and the city tourist economy. Our Senior Gator is back as well:

Shakespeare comes to mind as the Albuquerque Convention and Visitor's Bureau (ACVB) kicks its spin machine into high gear: "They doth protest too much..." The second ACVB receives any criticism the kind of energy and activity some would like to see used promoting and selling the City and the Convention Center ACVB uses instead to sell and protect themselves--and their lock on a $5 million a year city contract.

Just days after ACVB President and CEO Dale Lockett's defended (on your blog) his organization's long-standing tradition of not being able to sell the Convention Center, the Albuquerque Journal popped up a front-page story and headline: "Convention Center Shows Sign of Life".

The up-shot of the Journal story was that yes, things at the Convention Center are bad--but they're just about to get better. In fact, according to that article, 2012 bookings may be "the best year in a decade."--skyrocketing from $50 million in 2010 and $51 million in 2011 to $84 million this year.

But the accounting ACVB uses would make Doug Vaughan blush.

None of this reported "$84 million" represents money, or people or conventions that are here now. In fact, some of the bookings (like the USA Roller Sports) won't be arrive (if they do) until July 2015. What's also interesting is that while ACVB claims their bookings for 2010 and 2011 were up--Lodger's Tax revenue was down and has dropped three out of the past four years.

What the Journal should have done is ask for verification of ACVB's numbers. What does ACVB spend those tax dollars on and what does it produce as a result? Have their past reportings ever been audited and verified? How much is spent on salaries and administrative overhead? How much is spent on travel? Who goes? Do any elected officials go on those trips? Does ACVB spend any of its budget on lobbyists? There's no reason not to ask-- unless the press and our elected officials just don't want to know what's really going on at the ACVB.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Rogers

The Republican Party is still hanging in there with attorney/lobbyist Pat Rogers, their controversial NM national committeeman, despite calls for his resignation from the Native Ameircan communty and the decision by his law firm--Modrall Sperling--to give him the boot.

When one of Pat's emails leaked that had him making fun of Governor Martinez for meeting with Native American tribes, saying General Custer would be "offended," we predicted that Modrall's billable hours could take a hit and that could mean Rogers would be shown the door. That appears to be pretty much what happened:

Controversial remarks by then-Modrall Sperling attorney Pat Rogers so angered Sandoval County Commission Chairman Darryl Madalena of Jemez Pueblo that he threatened to end the county’s contract with the firm. A June note Rogers sent from his Modrall email account to Gov. Susana Martinez’s staff appeared to suggest that the governor “dishonored Col. Custer” – a controversial Indian fighter of the 1800s – by attending a summit with state tribal leaders...

Modrall is billing Sandoval County $265 an hour. They could have lost that deal and more because of Rogers. Whatever they paid Pat to get him out was probably worth it.

Rogers' outlandish emails that have leaked out in recent weeks poke "fun" at Hispanics, Native Americans and gays are sure to be fodder for future campaign charges--as long as Rogers keeps his hat as GOP national committeeman.

The R's have taken a bunker mentality on this because Rogers is so fully integrated into the party via his connections with Governor Martinez and "shadow Governor" Jay McCleskey. They appear to want to take a bullet for Rogers. If so, they could be wounded politically and so may the national GOP as it works to try to convince minorities that the party is not exclusionary.

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