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You knew they were coming. And they're here. The obscenity-laced audio recordings of Governor Martinez's Chief of Staff Keith Gardner are now campaign fodder and could be the turning point in the fight being waged by Dem Senate leader Tim Jennings to save his Roswell area seat.

When the tapes were first released by New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on September 11 they caused a statewide sensation and no more so than in the Roswell area. Gardner was a state representative for Roswell before going to work for Martinez.  In them he declares he agrees with Brian Powell that he  "hates" Roswell and calls Jennings "a cocksucker" for opposing Martinez. And there is much, much more of that type of language.

Now the recordings--made without Gardner's knowledge--will be heard on the radio, described in the mailboxes and even showcased in expensive TV ads that will be seen across the state. All of it is posted by the Jennings campaign at this web site, titled "theyhateroswell.com."

Jennings is in a do-or-die battle against Governor Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey and his Reform NM Now PAC. The Guv is targeting Senate President Pro Tem Jennings as well as Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, accusing them of stalling her legislative agenda, and using big oil and out-of-state Republican money to finance the PAC, which is technically not associated with her.

Jennings is being challenged by 27 year old tea party activist Cliff Pirtle, hardly a threat by himself, but with thousands of dollars being pumped into the district Jennings has been forced to wage all out combat. He has hired veteran political consultant Tom Hujar of Seattle who also lives part-time in Santa Fe to go toe-to-toe with McCleskey. Hujar previously worked for ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and other Dem candidates here.

Interestingly, Jennings' literature never mentions Gardner by name, identifying him as "a chief architect of Reform New Mexico Now."

The mail piece also refrains from using McCleskey's name but makes clear who they are talking about, saying the Reform NM Now PAC "was created by an Albuquerque political consultant who is renowned for running negative campaigns."

This Jennings rebuttal is reminiscent of what we saw in the June GOP primary for a Clovis area state Senate seat. That's when the Guv and McCleskey supported Angie Spears over Pat Woods. Woods responded with a TV ad and literature calling McCleskey out by name, but avoided attacking the popular Martinez. Now in Roswell we have Gardner and McCleskey--the two closest advisers to the Governor--as major campaign issues. This gives Jennings (and Sanchez) a way to energize their voters without making risky attacks on Martinez.

It's not as if Jennings hasn't been provoked. Reform NM Now PAC has been pounding the Senate heavyweight in the mail, with Jay even using one of his old tricks--conjuring up the image of former Dem Senate leader Manny Aragon who is serving time in prison and linking Jennings to him.

Republican Martinez would have her hands full no matter the outcome of this year's election, but by taking on Jennings and evoking this reaction--as well as the hits on Sanchez--she is now deep in the woods. Only winning will get her out.

HARDEN TO RESIGN

Our Alligators reported late Thursday that GOP State Senator Clint Harden will resign his eastside seat. This comes in the wake of a blog item this week that reported Harden was raising eyebrows in Santa Fe by apparently soliciting business for his new lobbying venture. Harden's term runs until the end of the year. He decided not to seek re-election this year. Speculation was that he was pressured by the Guv to get out. His seat is being taken by Pat Woods who won the GOP primary and is unopposed in November. Harden had been in the Senate since 2002.

(Harden officially announced his resignation Friday afternoon, saying that he would like county commissioners in Senate District Seven to submit the name of Republican nominee Pat Woods to Governor Martinez for appointment.)

IT'S LIKELY


On October 1 we moved the New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan ranking for the open US Senate seat here from "Lean Dem" to "Likely Dem." We now have some company from Roll Call which joins the "Likely Dem" club:

For all of former Rep. Heather Wilson’s (R) strengths as a candidate, she entered this open-seat race with high unfavorable ratings from her previous statewide campaign. Plus, she’s running in a heavily Hispanic state no longer viewed as competitive in the presidential race and against a solid Democratic recruit in Rep. Martin Heinrich (D), who took the lead in August and does not appear willing to let go.

The race is Heinrich's to lose, with Wilson having a couple of shots in the upcoming TV debates to try to stave off what is looking more and more inevitable.

PEARCE TV

Southern GOP Congressman Steve Pearce is in even better shape than Heinrich. We rank his race against Democrat Evelyn Madrid Erhardas "Safe Republican." And we don't need any polls to make that assessment. Pearce is widely popular in the conservative oriented district. He won't be spending a lot of money this election, but he will have a presence. His first TV ad is all red, white and blue. An excerpt:

Pearce passed landmark legislation that will fully fund veterans' pensions, disability benefits and improve the quality of medical care. A Vietnam veteran, Steve Pearce will always keep America's promise to those who served.

While Pearce may be a lock for re-election to his US House seat, conjecture continues on whether he will make another bid for the US Senate, namely the GOP nomination for the seat held by Dem Tom Udall and which is up in 2014. It's probably a long shot but the speculation will continue until the GOP gets a name candidate on the field. So far there is none.

VOTER SUPPRESSION?

This report caught our eye as it dragged Pearce into the middle:

ProgressNow New Mexico, a left-leaning advocacy organization, released a video showing the New Mexico Republican Party instructing its poll watchers to engage in what could be illegal voter suppression. The poll watchers are told to request identification from voters, even though the law in New Mexico does not require voter ID. There are other troubling parts of the video...Poll watchers are told to deceive Spanish-speaking voters by telling them that interpreters are not available, when in fact New Mexico law provides for language assistance for minorities and Spanish-language ballots. 

At CPAC Colorado, a conservative conference  in Denver, I asked Congressman Steve Pearce about the brewing controversy.... “We’re simply saying that we’re going to start, we’re going to take it back it into our hands,” said Pearce. “We should check for ID since you have to show an ID to do anything in America.” He did, however, admit that doing so would be against the law. “It’s against New Mexico law to check for ID,” the congressman conceded.

Madrid-Erhard may be the undecided underdog in her race against Pearce but he handed her an opportunity there. 

SUSANA'S LICENSES

Has a sitting Governor ever had worse luck on an issue? Susana is 0 for 3 in her efforts to have the Legislature overturn the law that permits undocumented immigrants to get a state driver's license and now this:

Republican Gov. Susana Martinez's administration agreed  to settle a lawsuit and not revive a plan to cancel the driver's licenses of immigrants who fail to verify whether they still live in the state. The administration announced the program last year but it was suspended by a state district court in Santa Fe after the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund filed a lawsuit. District Judge Sarah Singleton issued an order permanently blocking the program and stopping the administration from canceling licenses of any immigrants initially checked unless the state has evidence of fraud.

Susana will try again for a repeal of the licenses in the 2013 legislative session and her political PAC is hammering legislators with the issue on the campaign trail, but it doesn't appear to be working. Looks as thought she is about to go 0 for 4 on this one...

Thanks for stopping by this week.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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Is Obama bored and wants to make a race of it? How else to explain a debate performance that one post-debate analysis correctly called listless, flat and uninspired, or at least it was by comparison to Romney. He came out on stage with salt on his tail and wagged it at America without let-up for a full ninety minutes. It was a clear win on style, organization and knowledge. Now whether it was a win on who do you trust more or who do you like--often how people pick presidents--well, those troublesome questions continue to cloud Romney's future.

But for the first time in months he saw some sunshine. Obama seemed adrift and surprisingly lacking in the passion that the American nation must muster if it is to complete its long climb out of economic decline. Romney seemed ready and eager to lead--even if the ideas that would propel that leadership are hardly embraced by the great middle of the country where elections are decided.

We don't anticipate the debate having a significant impact on New Mexico. The state is pretty much locked down for the president, but team Obama would be advised to keep open all those field offices it has here. Just in case.

ELDER ABUSE

And how about how 78 year old debate moderator Jim Lehrer was rolled by Romney? We said on Twitter that it was so bad that Mitt might be charged with elder abuse. 

TOO SAFE

Veteran NM Dem analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides says Obama played it too safe ion Denver:

It seemed he trying to remain presidential and not get into the gutter, but he needs to revisit that strategy for the remaining debates. He just wasn't tough enough. I think the dynamic in New Mexico remains unchanged because Obama did very well on Medicare and Medicaid--issues that are key here-- but he needs to be more of a street fighter going forward.

A TRIAL LAWYERS PARADISE?

Rep. Martinez & Turner Branch

Republicans are warning that the Roundhouse will become a trial lawyers paradise of the Dems retain control of the state House and place State Rep. Kenny Martinez--a trial lawyer from Grants--in the speaker's chair. They point out that trial lawyer Michael Sanchez runs the state Senate as majority leader and could form a tag team with Martinez on behalf of the powerful trial lawyers who are not shy about giving campaign contributions.

The historic influence of the trial lawyers is brought home in this picture of Rep. Martinez and ABQ's Turner Branch, perhaps the dean of the state's trial lawyers. Turner is a Republican but has been known to hit for both teams. He was a member of the state House from ABQ back when Kenny's father--Walter Martinez--was also in the chamber and where he served as speaker of the House. And here Turner is today--still playing the game.

Martinez is all smiles but it has to disguise some nervousness. If the Rs were to pick up a couple of House seats they would control the body for the first time in half a century and Martinez would fund himself relegated to the sidelines. Insiders say he is taking an active role in the campaign strategies in the important state House races.

The trial lawyers assert themselves on a variety of issues, but their recent opposition to a liability bill for the New Mexico Spaceport really had the spotlight shining on them. Critics argue that they killed the bill and it means we are losing ground to other states with competing spaceports. The measure is sure to come back in 2013. If Martinez takes power will he try to craft a compromise and get the Spaceport back on track? Colorado was able to do it.

SAPIEN VS. DOYLE

One of the hot ABQ Metro State Senate races features first term incumbent and Democrat John Sapien vs. GOP State Rep. David Doyle.

Sapien’s top campaign contributor was the Committee on Individual Responsibility, a political action committee of the New Mexico Trial Lawyers Association, which supplied $5,000, about 7 percent of the campaign’s total funding, according to the list of Sapien’s top 20 contributors on FollowTheMoney.org. 

As for Doyle:

FollowTheMoney.org lists Occidental Oil and Gas as Doyle’s top campaign contributor this year, accounting for about $2,500, or about 5 percent, of the total contributions. After that is New Mexico Commercial Real Estate Development Association with a contribution of $2,250, Jalapeno Corp. with $2,000, New Mexico Homebuilders Association with $1,750 and the Committee to Elect Nate Gentry, a Republican member of the New Mexico House of Representatives, with $1,500.

Sapien survived a stiff primary challenge from former State Rep. Ben Rodefer who now endorsed Sapien. The district is in Sandoval County and includes Corrales.

Sapien, an insurance salesman, got that Rodefer challenge because he was seen as voting too conservative. He is favored to prevail over Doyle and you might see his voting record appeal more to Dems if he does get back in.

VALENCIA ACTION

The state House seat currently held by GOP Rep. David Chavez is the #1 pick up target for state Dems this cycle. Chavez is leaving the seat (Dist. 7) after one term to run against State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez. And the man Chavez beat in 2010--Dem Andrew Barreras is trying to make a come back against Republican newcomer Kelly Fajardo. A Republican Alligator on the ground in Valencia comes with the latest:

It like Fajardo is working really hard. The Reform NM Now PAC run by Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey is now attacking Barreras over his opposition to the death penalty.  

And what about that State Senate contest (Dist. 30) between Dem Clemente Sanchez and Republican Vickie Perea? That district also sprawls into Valencia. Our GOP Gator says:

Perea is working it, too. 'm still calling that one a long shot for her, but we'll see.  Vickie isn't getting any help from the Jay McCleskey crowd.

Perea is a former ABQ city councilor with an independent streak. Sanchez is Director of the NMSU Grants Campus, Small Business Development Center. He defeated incumbent Dem Senator David Ulibarri of Grants in the June primary. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

We had a reader email up for a time Wednesday that said the Department of Health would oversee any expansion of the federal Medicaid program. Medicaid is run by the Human Services Department, not the Health Department.

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Padilla & Candelaria

Not all the candidates are sweating it out this election season. ABQ's Michael Padilla and Jacob Candelaria are all smiles as we catch up with them on the 2012 campaign trail--and no wonder. Candelaria won his June primary and has no Republican opponent for his Westside district. He gets a four year trip to Santa Fe just by voting for himself.

And Michel Padilla is a near certain bet for a seat in the 42 member Senate.  He too won a spirited June Dem primary. He also has no GOP foe. Padilla does face independent candidate Robert Schiller but it is not a serious threat.

Candelaria, 26, and Padilla, 40, are the new generation of Hispanic politicians. Both will be first time office holders and both are avid students of La Politica. Candelaria is a Princeton graduate and Padilla, a business owner, is a successful consultant for customer service call centers.

Don't expect to be able to pigeonhole these two new lawmakers as "progressives." Both have an independent and pragmatic streak and will not shut their doors to the state's business interests.

AFTER THE SENATE

Speaking of business interests in Santa Fe, a couple of legislators report that one of their own is about to go into the lobbying business. They say outgoing GOP State Senator Clint Harden is making it known he is looking for clients. Careful, Senator. Your term representing the state's Eastside is not officially over until year's end.

WHAT A YAWN

That's what the Prez race is here. We're going to have to start filling up on Starbucks before we study these polls, otherwise it's a big yawn. Rasmussen said Tuesday its Obama 51%, Romney 40% and "another candidate" 6%.  We've moved the Prez race from "Lean Dem" to "Likely Dem" and now are of a mind to move it to "Safe Dem." Former NM Guv Gary Johnson was not listed on the poll, but we suppose he could be that other candidate Rasmussen mentioned. Our Alligators months ago pegged the "over-under" on Johnson's performance here at 5%. It appears he will have a hard time reaching that number if he doesn't do any high-profile media.

Tonight is the first presidential debate. Don't expect the numbers to move here as a result of that match-up unless someone confesses to an unsolved homicide.

WHERE'S THE FIGHT?

Governor Martinez needs to put on boxing gloves when it comes to the state's economy but she seems to be opting instead for her running shoes. At her administration's economic conference Tuesday she warned that New Mexico--which receives $28 billion a year in all forms of federal funding representing over a third of the economic activity here--has to move away from that funding:

“For many years, this state has relied on an influx of federal dollars, but federal [budget] cuts are coming, and we have to move away from our sole dependence on federal spending,” Martinez said in addressing the New Century Economy Summit in Albuquerque.

In an ideal world it would be nifty if we could replace billions of dollars in federal money in a year or two, but we can't. That's why the former district attorney from Las Cruces needs to battle to protect our state from getting trashed economically by a massive bleed of federal monies.

If you don't fight for funding for Sandia and Los Alamos Labs and for the state's defense industry, they will take it from you. And there is no conceivable private sector development that is gong to replace those jobs or that funding in the immediate years ahead. You must fight while you transition.

What we are getting from Santa Fe is sighs of resignation when what we need is a collaborative effort with the state's business and congressional leadership to fight to protect the economic security of its people.

And the Governor seems confused as to what constitutes the "private sector." She says:

"We've started the work by investing in the construction and manufacturing sectors, by providing tax relief to small business owners ... And by attracting companies that can create private sector jobs ... like Honeywell and AirUSA."

But those "private jobs" depend on millions in federal funding Honeywell and Air USA are federal defense contractors.

New Mexico is getting hammered by government and private sector job losses while neighboring states climb out of the deep recession. Those states are nowhere near as dependent on government funding as we are.

New Mexico's modern economic history is tied at the hip to the federal government, That is the basis for most of what has happened here in the last 60 years. You can very slowly withdraw from this cash flow, but if you go cold turkey you are going to crash.

MICHELLE MONEY

ABQ Dem congressional contender Michelle Lujan Grisham comes with her money numbers for the quarter ending September 30. They appear to be healthy:

Democratic Congressional Nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham raised more than $500,000 during the last three months in the race for New Mexico’s 1st District. Since the start of her campaign, nearly 5,000 people have contributed to Michelle’s run for Congress, generating about $1.4 million to enable her to reach voters with TV ads and through an aggressive field campaign.

The full reports will be filed with the FEC at mid-month. Grisham faces GOP hopeful Janice Arnold-Jones who has not yet released her fund-raising totals. We have the race ranked "Likely Dem."

COUTURE CULTURE

Barbara Couture

One of our Senior Alligators with experience in the higher education arena offers these insights on the ouster this week of New Mexico State University President Barbara Couture:

This is more evidence of the “corporatization” or our institutions of higher learning: Not only is Couture’s reasons for departure kept “private” (that is, secret), but she receives a golden parachute of almost half a million dollars plus full pay for the next three months! This in spite of the fact that she already has secured another position. This all started with Big Bill’s amigo Louis Caldera, who walked away from the presidency of the University of New Mexico with about $700,000 after being fired. Shades of Wall Street--or big-time college athletics. And what is this talk of “permanent” presidents at New Mexico universities? Given the very short terms and high turnover of university presidents, especially in NM, the term is meaningless.

And how about some good old-fashioned unloading on the wayward NMSU regents? Las Cruces Sun-News editor Jim Lawitz does the honors:

The New Mexico State University Board of Regents has perpetrated a travesty on the citizens of Las Cruces. This august body of leaders announced the departure of President Barbara Couture on Monday. They did so with a righteous sense of purpose, cloaking themselves in privileged conversation protected by law...If the regents are sincere in their goal of transparency, perhaps they'd tell us how they came up with Couture's severance package. Given the number--$453,092--is it logical to assume a formula was used to arrive at the number? Assuming taxpayers are footing the bill--and we have no reason to believe otherwise--they have a right to know. With change comes hope and we fervently wish for a change in culture. One that's collaborative, not combative; and one that's open, not obstructive and always looking to circle the wagons.

"A travesty on the citizens.." Jim, now you're bloggin'....

ILLEGALS & LICENSES

Somebody call Susana. The licenses are multiplying!

Gov. Jerry Brown signed a new law that will allow hundreds of thousands of young illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses...The driver's license measure will make illegal immigrants eligible to drive legally in California if they qualify for a new federal work permit program. That Obama administration protocol allows illegal immigrants who came to the United States before they were 16, and who are now 30 or younger and meet certain other criteria, to obtain work permits.

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You've heard of the jokes over the years about New Mexico's dead casting ballots, but a candidate actually going after the dead vote? Well, that's the way it looks in this rib-tickling pic snapped at a Valencia County cemetery. GOP State Rep. David Chavez, seeking to unseat Dem State Senator and Majority leader Michael Sanchez, has his sign positioned for what appears to be easy reading for those who have found their final resting place.

As for the living, Chavez and a political action committee run by the Guv's political adviser are bombarding them with mail pieces that seem unending. Already about ten anti-Sanchez mailers have gone out, according to our sources in the county.

There's not much positive to be said about being six feet under, but not having a mailbox in October of an election year is surely one of them. (By the way, the Chavez campaign has since taken down its cemetery sign).

SMITH VS. ALLEN

He is one of the most powerful members of the 112 in the Legislature, but State Senator and Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith isn't getting much of a challenge from his GOP foe. Smith has become so conservative that the R in the race finds himself agreeing with Smith on the major issues of the day.

Smith was challenged in the Dem primary in June but won easily and appears well on the way to winning another four year term. At 74, it could be his last one, but you never know.

The current chatter about Smith revolves around the Republican challenges to Senate Majority Leader Sanchez and Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings. They are being hammered by Jay McCleskey, the Guv's political adviser who is running two PACS. If Sanchez and Jennings survive their R challenges, will they be even more adverse to working with Martinez? Could they try to have Smith join them in making life even tougher on the Guv? He's been pretty friendly toward her.

The law of unintended consequences could come into play as the Guv goes all in to take out the two Dem Senate leaders.

THAT WAS QUICK

Heather Wilson

The embalmers preparing for a political funeral took a brief break from their duties when they were shown an internal poll from Heather Wilson that claimed the GOP US Senate contender was trailing Dem Martin Heinrich by only one point. But the embalmers were back preparing their fluids in a matter of hours.

On the heels of Wilson's poll released Friday afternoon, the conservative Rasmussen polling outfit released a survey Monday morning showing Heather trailing Heinrich by a whopping 13 points--52% to 39%, with 3% saying they favored some other candidate.

Rasmussen did not specifically include tea party sympathizer Jon Barrie in the survey. But they didn't have to. That Wilson is trailing so much in Rasmussen--a firm friendly with Rs--says it all. In fact, if something doesn't happen soon the only chore left at Wilson headquarters will be to pick the pallbearers for her political funeral November 6.

Heather's camp even says this Republican friendly is off, saying it includes too many Hispanics, but no poll conducted in this race has ever shown Wilson ahead. An automated phone poll conducted last week by "We Ask America" drives the point home some more. It's Heinrich 52% and Wilson 41%.

KKOB-AM radio news veteran Larry Mohlenbrink asked us what is the main problem for Wilson. We responded that she has never been high in the "likability" ratings and that the many tough negative campaigns she ran as an ABQ congresswoman have caught up with her. And her 2008 GOP Senate primary loss to Steve Pearce has also weakened Wilson, a formidable politician but one who faces a much different electorate than when she started out back in 1998.

CAN WE TALK?

Shouldn't there be more talk about this among the biz community, the mainstream media and on the embryonic 2013 ABQ mayoral campaign trail?

The Albuquerque metropolitan area lost 3,300 jobs over the 12 months that ended Aug. 31, for a negative 0.9 percent growth rate, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions said. It was the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year job losses for the metro area, the department said in its monthly report on the state’s economy. The area had posted 28 consecutive months of year-over-year job losses from October 2008 through January 2011, and hovered around a flat growth rate for most of 2011.

DOWN AND THEN OUT?

You mean the winners of the controversial racino lease at the Downs at ABQ could turn around and sell the 25 year old lease, pocketing big bucks in the process? That speculation has arisen as the Downs announced a delay in getting the new racino built. The union-funded Independent Source PAC comes with this:

...The Downs does not have to actually build the project, but can turn around and sell all or part of the lease including the racetrack, casino, or liquor business to the highest bidder...The state has little if any say in the sale of the lease. The buyer only has to be “reasonably acceptable” to the state. If the new buyers have “substantially the same ownership and management” the state essentially already consents to the transfer of ownership...The racino in Hobbs--Zia Park--was built in 2004 for $43,000,000. It sold to Penn International Gaming in 2007 for $200,000,000. The Downs is in pretty poor shape these days. Maybe (the ownership) never really intended to do anything but get the lease. They sure stand to see a hefty profit from selling it to some national gaming outfit....

We'll file that in our "things to watch" folder as the Downs continues to say the new racino will be late in coming but will be built.

SHE'S GONE

The fumbling is finally over. The New Mexico State University Board of Regents have dumped President Barbara Couture who has already found another job and will have the additional soft cushion of $453,000 in buy out money.

There were scores of groups and interests unhappy with Couture who served less than three years in the job, but the regents said they could not talk about the reasons why she was leaving. So how are they going to improve the school if they can't talk about the problems? Couture was eased out in a hastily called meeting at the school campus in Las Cruces. The regents called her departure a "mutual decision" Yeah, like a prisoner being escorted to the firing squad.

Noticeable among the regents being quoted in news accounts of the Couture mess was Javier Gonzales who also happens to be the chairman of the New Mexico Democratic Party. Wearing these two hats has always been problematic for Javier and never more so than this week.

Another politico who also saw the spotlight fall on him because of all this is former GOP NM Governor Garrey Carruthers, dean of the biz school at NMSU. He casts a long shadow on school affairs and now that Couture is gone--apparently with his backing--he might want to use some of his political skills to bring the university community back together.

Former NM Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish has floated the idea that both NMSU and UNM be permitted to have regents who don't live in the state, bringing some valuable outside perspective. After the NMSU mess it's perhaps an idea whose time has come.

SHE'S GONE, TOO

The Guv's Department of Health Secretary throws in the towel. Dr. Catherine Torres had multiple issues running the sprawling agency, reports newsman Milan Simonich.

HE'S GONE, TOO

Las Cruces reporter Heath Haussamen has shuttered his nmpolitics.net web site after a six and a half year run. He says he was unable to find a buyer for the site, but will continue to write about state issues at New Mexico In Depth. The W. K. Kellogg Foundation has awarded $525,000 to get that project going. It will be led by longtime New Mexico newsman Trip Jennings.

SOMETHING AMISS

We ran a brief item Monday from Dem State House candidate Mary Ellen Broderick concerning her race against ABQ GOP State Rep. Nate Gentry, but reader Thomas Rymsza says something was amiss:

I believe that something is amiss regarding the reporting on the Gentry/Broderick race. It is HD30, not HD20.  And why is the event for Broderick you mention happening outside the district?

Thanks, Tom. The communication from the campaign said HD 20 and we since corrected it. As for Broderick having a fund-raising event at the Artichoke Cafe--far from the NE Heights district she hopes to represent--well, that's one of those things a sharp-eyed reader like you picks up on.

SPACEPORT MUSINGS

New Mexico's political stumbling could cost the state dearly when it comes to the Spaceport near T or C.  How about a legislative deal between the Rs and Ds so we can keep the promise of this project alive? The New Mexican  opines:

How about this? Democrats who don’t like the spaceport liability exemption vote yes anyway. Then, Republicans who dislike the movie industry, vote yes on permanent, clearer tax exemptions. It’s a trade, the kind of legislative back and forth that ends up with everyone winning, especially the men and women who will be working in the space or movie business. New Mexico wins, too, because the state will be taking in tax dollars from new businesses moving to Spaceport America and from the next great TV series that comes to New Mexico rather than move on to North Carolina or Louisiana. 

You mean working across the aisle and coming up with a compromise and giving everyone credit and actually moving the state forward economically? Ye gads! What will they be saying next?

PEEING THE PLAZA (CONT.)

Help is there for those who find themselves with bursting bladders as they enjoy the restroom-challenged Santa Fe Plaza, a story we blogged about Monday. Here's former NM Dem Party Chairman and City Different businessman Earl Potter:

In case you or your readers need us, please remember that our Five& Dime on the Plaza has had rest rooms open to the public for the past 14 years and will always have them as long as we are in business...

Thanks for that news, Earl. All those tourists praying for relief at St. Francis Cathedral can now make their way down the street to your place. Their prayers have been answered...

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Jon Barrie with supporter

Heather Wilson lapsed into a political coma in September and was pronounced near dead by the powers that be, but still she wriggles, her eyes occasionally blink and she struggles like a patient trying to tear an IV drip from their arm and jump back to life. And so late Friday her political team administered political shock therapy, issuing a poll that claimed Heather was only one point behind Dem front-runner Martin Heinrich.

(We have a new poll in--the Rasmussen survey released Monday morning has Heinrich leading Wilson 52% to 39% in a survey conducted Sept. 27. That's not going to help Heather shift the polling narrative.)

Are reports of Heather's political death premature?

Wilson's political pallbearers were giving no ground, saying her campaigns 43% to 42% poll contradicts every public poll out there and that the internal poll is a blatant and desperate attempt at getting the money crowd to send her checks instead of wreaths of condolence.

Heinrich was also having none of it, issuing his own internal survey that put him at 52% to Heather's 44% and his team again insisting it was time to write Heather's political epitaph.

What was different this time was the inclusion of Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie in both polls. He pulled a healthy nine percent in both, making a big difference in Heather's standing in her poll, but not denting Heinrich in his survey.  Heinrich had himself at 48%, Heather at 40% and Barrie at 9%.

Our polling experts say Barrie--a tea party leaning contender--picked up his support from voters who are tired of negative campaigning and who are drawn to his "independent" status. He has done no paid media and only managed to battle his way onto the ballot after a court challenge over his petition signatures. (One wag suggested that some poll respondents may have thought they were being asked about ABQ Mayor RJ Berry).

The irony for Wilson is that her pollsters have Barrie helping her but if the electorate finds out that Barrie is coming from the right, he would probably take votes from her. (With no ads or major outreach, our polling gurus expect Barrie to pull around 3% on Election Night).

With or without Barrie, 68, no one is rushing to declare Heather resuscitated--not with Romney dead in the water here and the vultures circling. Still, we've said a number of times that Wilson can't and won't be pronounced dead until the votes are actually counted. She is more than capable of giving Heinrich a number of scares in this final full month of Campaign '12.  In other words, for her this is a fight to the death--and she isn't dead yet.

CALLING SUSANA

Veteran NM pollster Brian Sanderoff has some advice for the embattled Wilson:

...iI I were Heather Wilson, I’d be knocking on the governor’s door for a TV endorsement

Sanderoff's ABQ Journal September poll showed Martinez with an impressive 69% approval rating, but she has only dabbled on the campaign trail so far. She faces her own re-election bid in 2014 in which she will again need Dems and Indys too win. Still, it's hard to see how Martinez could turn down a Wilson TV request considering the history between the two. Not that endorsements make much of a difference. They don't.

OUR RANKINGS

Here's how we start October. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan ranks the presidential race as "Likely Dem" the US Senate race as "Likely Dem," the ABQ congressional race as "Likely Dem," the northern congressional seat as "Safe Dem" and the southern congressional seat as "Safe Republican."

The US Senate race moves from "lean" to "likely" Dem. We began the campaign ranking that race as "Lean Dem" not "Toss-up."All other major political media had it rated as a toss-up but have since moved it to lean or likely Dem.

As for control of the NM House of Representatives, as we enter October it remains somewhat of a jump ball, with the Rs still having a shot at taking control of the lower chamber for the first time since the early 50's but the race for control is still ranked as "Lean Dem."

JAY'S OVERCROWDED PLATE

Without question one of the big financial winners of this cycle will be Governor Martinez consultant Jay McCleskey. He is all over the place, pumping gobs of money from Susana PAC and the Reform NM Now PAC into two dozen legislative races. The commissions will be juicy indeed.

But is Jay getting over extended? One of our political consultant readers makes that case as he examines this hit piece (click to enlarge) on Los Alamos Dem legislative candidate Stephanie Garcia Richard:

Look at this mailer that Reform NM Now PAC is sending out on Stephanie Richard. Never mind the fact that Stephanie said clearly in the ABQ Journal that she supports repeal of the law that allows undocumented immigrants to get NM driver’s licenses, they don’t even proofread their work. Take a look at the last sentence in the second paragraph from the bottom. It says:

“Below to add in edits … make sure Albuquerque Journal is italicized like below.”

This was actually mailed to voters. Is it possible that people give too much credit to Jay and his supposed political genius and he is more like the gang who couldn’t shoot straight?

They might have stretched themselves so thin with the 24 plus races they claim to be involved in that they can’t even keep track of basics like proofreading? And do they have anything else to talk about other than driver’s licenses in races where both candidates have the same position?

It's a fair shot and we think even McCleskey would agree. Letting a piece like this out the door with its lousy editing is not acceptable when you are operating with a budget of hundreds of thousands.

As for the attacks on Richard on her stance on driver's licenses for undocumented workers, Martinez and McCleskey are one trick ponies in this election. Either this trick works in the many legislative races they are playing or they don't.

As for Richard, she faces Rep. Jim Hall, a Republican appointed by Governor Martinez to fill the Los Alamos area House seat. The race is said to be tight.

VOTER FRAUD TWIST 

How about this for some great irony? A prominent R caught up in possible voter registration fraud. Lincoln Strategies Founder Nathan Sproul--a former business partner of Jay McCleskey's--has been cut-off by the Republican National Committee for voter fraud allegations.

The Republican National Committee has abruptly cut ties to a consulting firm hired for get-out-the-vote efforts in seven presidential election swing states after Florida prosecutors launched an investigation into possible fraud in voter registration forms. The RNC has sent more than $3.1 million this year to Strategic Allied Consulting, a company formed in June by Nathan Sproul, an Arizona voting consultant. Sproul has operated other firms that have been accused in past elections of improprieties designed to help Republican candidates, including dumping registration forms filled out by Democrats, but none of those allegations led to any criminal charges. 

McCleskey says his work at Lincoln Strategies had nothing to do with voter registration.

HE HAS TO GO

There are plenty of Dem consultants on the job, positioning themselves as the "anti-McCleskey" of this cycle. Here is a web video produced for ABQ Dem legislative candidate Joanne Allen, taking shots at Republican State Rep. Bill Rehm.

Allen, a retired dentist, has largely self-financed her own campaign as she works for the upset in the Republican leaning district that Rehm has represented since 2006.

Her theme expressed in stark black and white is "He has to go" and asserts Rehm is for big tobacco and has voted against legislation to protect the health and safety of women and children. We'll see if Rehm has any response.

NOT THIS ONE

Gary Johnson has had some catchy ads for his presidential run as the Libertarian Party candidate for President, but this is not one of them.

GENTRY VS. BRODERICK

The race between ABQ GOP State Rep. Nate Gentry and Dem Mary Ellen Broderick is ranked "likely Republican" by those who concern themselves with such matters, but architect Broderick says her chances increase the better Obama does in Bernalillo county. She will try to fire things up today:

Please join in welcoming special guest Jim Dean Chairman of Democracy for America in support of Mary Ellen Broderick candidate for NM House of Representatives District 30 in Abq. Monday Oct 1, 5:30 pm-7:00 pm @ The Artichoke Café.  

Dean is the brother of former governor Howard Dean who helped found the liberal Democracy for America PAC.

Gentry, an attorney and former aide to Senator Pete Domenici, has signs up in the district and appears to be taking the challenge seriously. He needs to as a representative is often most vulnerable when making their bid for a second term as Gentry is.

HAN IS IMPORTANT

Readers continue to weigh in on the ongoing coverage of the 2010 death of civil rights attorney Mary Han and the circumstances of that death that have sent the case into the courts:

Why is the Mary Han case so important to the department and community? Because the fingers are being pointed not at lower APD officers, but directly at the command staff. The chief, deputy chiefs, commanders, directors, PIO's etc. If nothing was done wrong, Schultz and Berry need to release information and show all of us that nothing inappropriate happened. The longer Schulz and Berry do nothing the more suspect the command staff at city hall and APD look.  

When your command staff is under this kind of suspicion it harms everything throughout the entire city and police department. The integrity of the entire Berry/Schultz management team is under fire and the only response we are getting is having a judge step in and order them to release evidence that, if it clears them, they should have publicly released months ago. The accusations being made are so serious, and the people being accused at such high positions, that if they care at all about the police department and the mayor's office they need to show the citizens they did nothing wrong. On the other hand if some things were done wrong Berry/Schultz need to take responsibility for these actions and start fixing them. 

THEY'RE WATCHING US

The New York Times comes with a New Mexico angle in its political coverage:

New Mexico Democrats are intensifying their efforts to increase Hispanic voter turnout, a perennial quest here and across the country for a rapidly growing ethnic group that tends to vote in significantly lower percentages than other groups. The results are being closely watched by national party leaders. The theory is that, with the Hispanic population growing in many states, the way New Mexico looks today is the way many states will look in elections down the road. 

PETE ARGYRES

We received word over the weekend of the death of Pete Argyres. You may not have known him, but you probably heard of the Townhouse Restaurant on ABQ's Central Avenue. With his brother George, Pete put the steak house on the map and it became a well-known haunt of La Politica from the 60's through its closing in 2007. Pete Argyres, who died at 89, never ran for office, but his daughter Christina Argyres caught the bug. She is a Bernalillo County Metro Court judge who is a Dem candidate for a seat on the ABQ district court this year. She is running against fellow Metro Court Judge and Republican Sharon Walton. By the way, the Townhouse was reopened by the Argyres family at a new location several miles east of the old one.

PEEING AT THE PLAZA

Come on people. The Santa Fe Plaza is one of the top tourist destinations in the USA--or should be. So why can't we make it easy for our visitors to find a place to take a leak? The bathroom wars there have been going on for decades and resurface as we prepare for this weekend's ABQ balloon fiesta, a huge event that will also benefit Santa Fe. It's the type of problem that you would think the state Tourism Department would work to resolve, but the "place to pee" controversy is mired in the Byzantine politics of local Santa Fe government. If they don't find an answer soon, one of these days you're going to see a diaper dispenser open up shop on the historic plaza.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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