At one point the TV cameras revealed Martin Heinrich's hands shaking as he faced off with a relentless Heather Wilson, but after an hour of withstanding her incessant poking and jabbing--and landing some punches of his own--the two term congressman could breath a a sigh of relief. The stone wall he erected withstood the multiple cannon balls she fired.

There was no knock-out, but it was a work out for the soon-to-be 41 year old. At the end, Heinrich looked like a job applicant who had just been interviewed by the company tough guy--and passed. By not losing, Heinrich won and with it he advanced that much closer to a job in the United States Senate.

The Rasmussen poll released just before the debate showed Democrat Heinrich sporting a solid 52% to 39% lead. There was nothing said or done in the hour on KRQE-TV--no brain freeze or faux paux--that could change the seemingly intractable trajectory of this contest toward the Democratic candidate.

There will be a couple of more TV debates, but Heather has showed Martin her bag of tricks. It will be even harder to fool him next time.

ALLIGATORS AND OTHERS

To the trail now and more on the Senate debate. Veteran Dem analyst Harry Pavlides:

The debate was mostly boring and the more boring it was the better it was for Heinrich. Both showed a strong sense of knowledge from their respective perspectives, but Wilson's issues have lost traction in New Mexico--tax cuts and subsides for big oil. Her best moment was at the open when she said she had talked to Heinrich's first employer and he said Heinrich doesn't understand how taxes impact business. But this was a debate for technocrats. It was not engaging on a human level. But it fit right in to what Heinrich needed. All he had to do was hold his own, and he did.

Republican consultant Bob Cornelius opined:

When you're defending, you are usually losing so Heather wins this on a TKO--but there was no knockout punch.

A Dem consultant analyzed it this way:

It seemed like Wilson was throwing the kitchen sink at him to see what worked and none of it did. If Heather is going to get traction she needed to take it to Martin more forcefully and directly.

A Senior Alligator of the Dem variety weighed in with this:

There was definitely no knockout punch. Most of the debate was insider baseball. No one in the general public knows what PAYGO is, and they are not obsessed with LANL nuclear funding. Also, it seemed for the first half they were having a debate about the past. This was a way too wonky debate and the regular voter probably tuned out at about 6:18pm.

...The debate was very Albuquerque-centric. I don't know how much of what they talked about  appealed to areas out of Albuquerque. Overall, Heather just doesn't have an issue that resonates with folks. She needs a simple message and she doesn't have one. She needs to peel off Democrats and nothing she said will do that.

HEATHER AND PETE

Once they were New Mexico's poltical tag team, but Pete Domenici has been gone from the scene since his retirement from the Senate in 2009. Still, his name grabs your attention and Heather brought him back on the day of the debate in the form of a TV ad in which he took some swings at Heinrich.

Domenici--who brought billions into the state as New Mexico's longest ever serving Senator--scored Heinrich for his vote on "sequestration" which he said will cost the state 20,000 federal jobs.

That is, of course, if Congress does not make a deficit deal. Heinrich's camp called it "ridiculous" to charge that Heinrich would vote to do away with thousands of NM jobs.

Domenici is now 80 and a political memory, not a political player. In fact, the radical wing of the state GOP shows nothing but disdain now for Pete's admirable record of service, saying government jobs have made the state too government dependent.

Pete was instrumental in the 90's in launching Wilson's congressional career, but his TV ad isn't likely to trim the polling deficit she faces in her second quest for a seat in the body that he served in for 36 years.

SUSANA FOR MITT

You don't see much of her on the campaign trail around here, but she will stump for Mitt in Nevada over the weekend:

New Mexico's popular Governor Susana will campaign in Las Vegas on Saturday for Romney, including by stopping by a new East Las Vegas campaign office Romney opened last month in a Hispanic neighborhood. She'll hold a "meet and greet" session at 3:45 p.m. with the locals, the Romney campaign said.

RED FLAG FOR SPACEPORT

New Mexico has stiff competition. Colorado is getting aggressive when it comes to their Spaceport, even calling theirs "the preferred location in America's Heartland."

Front Range Airport--site of a proposed Colorado spaceport--announced that it has signed a letter of intent with Rocket Crafters Inc. for horizontal launch, dual-propulsion, suborbital flight operations. The letter of intent outlines a mutual intent to promote and develop Spaceport Colorado at Front Range Airport in Adams County as “the preferred commercial spaceport location in America’s heartland,” according to a press release.

New Mexico has a head start on Colorado but supporter says we are in danger of losing our position because the Legislature has thrown up a legal blockade:

Spaceport America and southern NewMexico have the potential to be the crucible of the second space age, said Aaron Prescott, business operations manager for Spaceport America. We have a choice whether or not we want to support and encourage this new industry to develop and grow here or not. The only obstacle in the way of New Mexico's path toward commercial spaceflight greatness is the wording of the state's Informed Consent Act. While the original legislation was signed into law by Gov. Bill Richardson in 2010, it only protects operators such as Virgin Galactic that will fly passengers themselves, leaving their supply chain of manufacturers completely unprotected from harmful litigation.

The jobs of the future are at stake and we can only hope the legislators and the legislative wanna bes out campaigning are paying attention...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Thanks for dropping by this week.

Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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We're now in double digits--double digits on the October calender that is. And that means the campaign action is coming at a hot and heavy pace. Let's head out to the trail...

In the category of not suspenseful ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Michelle Lujan Grisham says her latest internal poll conducted Oct. 8-9 shows her with a 55-40 lead over GOP rival Janice Arnold-Jones. Maybe the ABQ Journal survey to hit Sunday will have better news for Janice but probably not by much. Facing that steep mountain, expect Grisham's critics to start unloading. Fort Bayard, anyone?

Look at this--tonight three name Rs who can be fairly characterized as belonging to the "anti-Jay McCleskey faction" of the GOP (the Guv's political guru) gather under the same roof. Lt. Governor John Sanchez will host a fund raiser for Arnold-Jones at the ABQ home of PR maven Doug Turner. Sanchez hooked up with Jay early in his career but they had a falling out. Because of that he has been largely persona non grata with Susana. Doug ran for the 2010 GOP Guv nod and clashed with Jay as did Janice when she also made her Guv run.

The trio may be on the outs now, but politics can make u turns--witness the presidential race after the first Obama-Romney debate--and a moderate faction of the GOP could start to emerge if Jay and Susana come up empty-handed Election Night.Speaking of which...

It is getting increasingly difficult for the Guv to take out Dem Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings. She has written a letter on behalf of his GOP rival--26 year old tea party activist Cliff Pirtle--and now one of our Alligators in Roswell reports she's going to campaign for him in person:

I just received notice that the Governor is coming into Roswell for a rally for Pirtle. She is now officially, all in!

Indeed she is all in. GOP strategists think if there is more enthusiasm for Romney it could benefit the unknown Pirtle as GOP turnout increases. But this is a long shot for Martinez as Dem Jennings continues to pick up GOP support of his own.

Our insiders also report that Martinez has penned a fund-raising letter for struggling GOP US Senate nominee Heather Wilson. There have been complaints that Martinez--sporting a high public approval rating--isn't doing enough for Heather or the aforementioned Arnold-Jones. The Heather letter could be the prelude to a Susana TV spot for Wilson. And remember something: "Janice you are not Heather."

And about that letter of support Susana sent out on behalf of Sen. Jennings rival Cliff Pirtle, one of the Alligators joked:

Hey, at least she didn't call Jennings a "cocksucker" as (Martinez Chief of Staff) Keith Gardner did in his version of the Watergate tapes...

No comment on that jibe, but back on the Senate race, Wilson and Heinrich will face off in their first TV debate tonight on KRQE at 6 p.m. Wilson has to shake the earth or else Heinrich is headed for an Election Night finish in the 54% area.....

BASHING BEGAYE

We take you to all points on the 2012 campaign trail including the far flung. Today we head to Navajo Country in the northwest where we find yet another state House Democrat under the gun from the Guv.

It's Rep. Ray Begaye, first elected in '98, who was recently tripped up when he was busted for double-billing for a legislative trip. He sought per diem and mileage reimbursement from the state for attending a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislators in Arizona, but it turns out that group had already reimbursed Begaye's expenses.

Ray has since paid back cash to the conference, but that isn't stopping the Reform NM Now PAC--led by the Guv's political adviser--from piling on as you can see from the campaign piece posted here (click to enlarge). An Alligator report now from the Four Corners on Begaye and the chances of his GOP opponent Sharon Clahchischilliage:

It looks like Governor Martinez and Jay McCleskey are making a credible move to take on a relatively safe Democrat seat and potentially swing the balance in the state House. The mailer seems to be targeting weak voters and unreliable Democrats. That piece was sent to a family member of mine, who is a Democrat, but an irregular or "weak" voter. That piece should have been sent to reliable voters and strong Democrats, such as myself and another family member, who vote regularly.  . 

Navajo voters seem to be very "forgiving" and elect flawed politicians, such as the current group of Shiprock Chapter officials, including some current and previous leaders who were involved in the multi-million dollar BCDS scandal, another chapter official who misused funds to buy a motorcycle (money was paid back), or how another Shiprock Chapter official was re-elected twice to his current position, despite being a convicted felon.

Is the "Reform New Mexico Now" attack piece a one-hit-wonder that will be forgotten? Or is McCleskey and Governor Martinez going to bring more heat to bear in the District 4-San Juan race? 

The Alligators say Martinez and Jay will have to apply a lot of heat. Getting direct mail into voting Navajo households is notoriously difficult. Unless Begaye takes another big hit, he remains favored to keep his seat.
 
SHOUT OUT

We shout it out for this--$140 million in bonds that voters will decide this election. $120 million will go for improvements to higher education buildings. It's a prod for the construction industry here--stuck in a long-term depression.

WAITING FOR IT

You know, if there is not a really good campaign against the proposal to raise the ABQ minimum wage to $8.50 an hour (from $7.50), it just might pass Nov. 6. The news:

About 40,000 Albuquerque workers, or one-seventh of the city’s workforce, would receive a raise if the city’s minimum wage is increased to $8.50 an hour, a study on the issue released Tuesday said.

Raising the minimum wage from $7.50 to $8.50 an hour would generate $29 million in additional wages, put $18 million into the economy and create 160 jobs in the city, said the report by New Mexico Voices for Children, a health care advocacy group in Albuquerque.

Biz interests have raised money and a campaign against the minimum wage boost is coming, but it appears they are missing out on these first early voting days.

A FIFTY PERCENT MAYOR?

Paperwork has been filed that could lead to an election to decide if ABQ should increase the percentage a mayor needs to be elected. Right now, if a candidate gets 40% of the vote, he takes the office. If no candidate crosses that threshold, there is a run-off between the top two contenders.

Under the proposed change, a candidate would have to get 50%, making a run-off more likely. Mayor Barry got elected with over 40% in the first round in 2009 in a three-way race. The change would increase the chances of a run-off. Union groups wanting this change will have to gather over 12,000 petition signatures to force a special election.

RED MEAT TIME

No one serves up a serving of red meat like southern GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. Here he can be seen in fine form bashing Dem Martin Heinrich who is the favorite to win this year's US Senate race:

He’s not a not a good fit for southern New Mexico, he’s not a good fit for anyone,” said Pearce. “He was not very active when we were losing military missions. That’s a very big job creator in his area. He’s not very active in supporting the minerals industry, oil and gas, and mining. Again, in fact, he’s probably on the opposite side of that. So, people have to ask if Martin Heinrich is elected (U.S. Senator), where they’re going to get their jobs? Because New Mexico has a lot of jobs in the resources industry. That’s the biggest question, I think, that faces us this election.

Don't worry, Martin, if you win the Senate seat you can have him over for lunch and serve him some of that elk meat you sock away from your hunting trips. Just remember: no vegetables.

Heinrich's latest TV ad is up in which he tries to carve up some red meat of his own over Social Security and Medicare. He says Heather will harm the programs. (Okay, he might ask Pearce for some advice on how to really hit).

A HEFTY CHEST

How this money is spent on Dem legislative candidates is going to be a major story for the remainder of the campaign. The Patriot Majority New Mexico PAC reported $780,000 in cash on hand. It received much of its cash from national unions. That will be the primary war chest to counter
Reform NM Now PAC run by Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey. His Reform New Mexico Now PAC raised $85,250 and spent $277,421 in the past month. Jay had about $113,000 in the bank to spend in the final month.

That's a big difference in cash on hand between the two committees. Will Reform NM be outgunned or is that $277,000 it already reports spending giving it a head start?

ALLIGATOR PUNISHMENT

Two of our Alligators told us that APS lobbyist Carrie Menapace was the daughter of veteran Roundhouse lobbyist Joseph Menapace and we took it as a no-brainer. But they--and we--were wrong. We had the item up for a brief time on the Wednesday blog and lobbyist Menapace was among those who came with the correction:

Some confusion might also result from my earliest days as a lobbyist when I became the first full-time executive director of the NM School Boards Association in 1970 and was involved with public education issues before the legislature at that time including many matters of importance to the Albuquerque Public Schools.

Carrie Menapace says she was threatened and had her arm grabbed by Guv Chief of Staff Keith Gardner during the last legislative session. It has developed into a pretty big deal with Dems calling for Gardner to resign because of this incident and others.

Things are super-busy around here, but we should have nailed down this name business before publishing. Thirty lashes with a wet noodle for the Gators who led us astray and the same for us....

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Martinez & Gardner

Carrie Menapace (Facebook)

It's not like you didn't have a honeymoon, Keith. Back in November 2010 when then Governor-elect Martinez named Keith Gardner, a state legislator from Roswell, as her Chief of Staff and Brian Moore, a state rep from Clayton as her deputy chief, we blogged:

Overall, this group will likely be seen in Santa Fe as having the depth and experience to run the day-to-day operations of state government. Their challenge may be to keep deeply ingrained partisan instincts in check.

Today Moore is long gone--a moderate voiced grocer forced from an administration that took a sharp turn down the path of take no prisoners and harbor no compromise. As for Gardner, after the release of his now infamous obscenity-laced recordings and this week's allegations (here, here, here and here) that he intimidated ABQ Public Schools lobbyist Carrie Menapace by grabbing her and threatening her. Keith looks like some kind of roadkill you see when you're speeding down La Bajada. The carcass is there, but there is no life.

As we said, Gardner came in with good wishes and high hopes, but his temper has gotten the best of him and his credibility is shredded. This Governor, whether she knows it or not, needs a new chief of staff. But who? She is encapsulated in a bubble, a captive of her own inclination to keep her circle tight and seemingly putting all her faith in Gardner and her chief political adviser who for good reason has been dubbed the "Shadow Governor." The old Republican guard that could help her--Senator Domenici, Lou Gallegos, Tom Tinnin, Garrey Carruthers, Walter Bradley etc. are long gone or banished.

In both the audio tapes and the incident with lobbyist Carrie Menapace it is a bullying mentality on full display. A "my way or the highway" approach. Ironically, when he served in the Legislature some of the press corp dubbed Gardner the "Gentle Giant." But the pressure for results and the power of the Fourth Floor apparently got to him.

The administration wants to wield power with a bloody axe during the legislative sessions and on the campaign trail. They are drawing blood but it is spattering back on them. The bloodiest of them all right now is Keith Gardner.

With the January 2013 legislative session fast approaching, Santa Fe looks like gang warfare--the crips and the bloods--not the Democrats and Republicans. Martinez needs some power players and peace makers. The switch blades aren't working.

GARDNER FALL OUT


The latest Gardner imbroglio hands the Dems a chance to make political hay. ABQ State Sen. Linda Lopez does the lifting:

The Governor’s Chief of Staff has effectively rendered himself unable to continue in his present position as the top administrative official responsible for directing and managing state government affairs. The release of a recording in which he terribly maligned the President of the Senate, followed by yesterday’s disclosure of allegations of physical intimidation of a female Albuquerque Public School employee, has severely damaged Chief of Staff Keith Gardner’s ability to push forward the Governor’s agenda. His erratic and frightening behavior leaves me no option but to advise Governor Susana Martinez to release Mr. Gardner from his position.

 The "Gentle Giant" is crashing. Look out below.

COME ON DOWN, SUSANA

Arnold-Jones & Lujan Grisham

"Come on down, Governor." That was the money line of the first TV debate between the two ABQ congressional candidates on KNME-TV Tuesday night. It was uttered by Republican contender Janice Arnold-Jones in response to a question asking why party support for her has not been more robust. That Governor Martinez has been nowhere near Arnold-Jones--who ran against her for the 2010 Guv nomination--says it all. The GOP long ago threw in the towel on the district it held for forty years until Dem Martin Heinrich took it in 2008.

Martinez is nowhere, the national GOP is nowhere and unfortunately for Janice, it appears she has nowhere to go.

Arnold-Jones and Dem contender Michelle Lujan Grisham faced off for an hour in a polite exchange of views, even while being pressured some by veteran network newsman Sam Donaldson.

Either Janice or Michelle would make a good congressional representative. Janice did her best to disassociate herself from the radical wing of the GOP as represented by tax foe Grover Norquist and Michelle held high the Democratic banner and bested Janice as she powered through a comprehensive answer to the issue of global warming.

Veteran Dem analyst Harry Pavlides said Lujan Grisham "did exceptionally well," meaning the race did not get shaken up. "There was no knock-out but Grisham's superior knowledge of the issues had her winning on all three referee cards. Her experience as an attorney showed."

In years past this would have been a debate with standing room only. But with polling basically showing the race out of the R's reach, the event probably drew only a small audience.

The abandonment of the Arnold-Jones candidacy by the Martinez circle and the national and local GOP will stand as a black mark on the party. She is a class candidate who deserves better. As it is, she can barely afford a TV buy. Martinez could show some class by cutting a TV ad for Janice and writing her a check. Like the lady said, "Come on down, Governor."

SUSANA FOR PIRTLE

The Guv is not being bashful in her effort to get rid of Dem Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings. She came with a direct letter on behalf of political neophyte Cliff Pirtle, saying Jennings' refusal to support her repeal of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants makes it "crystal clear that as long as he's in office, New Mexico will continue giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants..

The Martinez letter was sent out on Reform NM PAC stationary, the PAC run by her political svengali Jay McCleskey. Martinez also personally endorsed GOP state Senate candidate Angie Spears in June in a hotly contested primary. Spears was routed by rancher Pat Woods.

Jennings says he expects $400,000 to be spent against him, mostly raised from out of state. He is favored for re-election, but that is huge money in a state Senate race, forcing Jennings to also mount an expensive effort. 

State Senate races are notoriously difficult to poll, so look for a lot of panic buttons to be pushed and a lot of numbers--some good and some bad--to be floated in the next month.

2014 WATCH

From the AP:

Republican Gov. Susana Martinez reports raising more than $800,000 in the past six months for her 2014 re-election campaign, and Democratic  Gary King has collected about $160,000. According to finance disclosures filed Tuesday, the governor's campaign had a cash balance of $1.2 million as of Oct. 1. King, who's serving a second term as attorney general, had cash-on-hand of nearly $101,000 in his campaign account.

NO SECRETS


Another university president is ousted and another round of outrage over a golden parachute for the dearly departed. This time it's New Mexico State University and the ouster of President Barbara Couture. She will get a going away check for $453,000 and be paid another $100,000 for staying on the job though the end of the year. But yet she was forced out and the Regents won't talk bout why, claiming they don;t have to. Reader James Meiers says Santa Fe need to change things:
 
Because the privilege that the NMSU and UNM boards have enjoyed in recent years regarding compensation to ousted presidents is statutory, I would suggest that if there is enough righteous indignation at the secrecy of the process then the answer is simple in concept and difficult in execution: Lobby the legislature to amend the act to remove the exception for decisions made on personnel action, or at least for certain personnel, e.g. presidents and vice-presidents.

I would also hope that the student regents are the most directly accessible to ask "What did you do?" There is nothing to my knowledge prohibiting them from speaking on the issue, and if there is then that is an even bigger problem that needs to be addressed. There should not be any sort of non-disclosure agreement prohibiting the temporary stewards of New Mexico's taxpayer-funded institutions from speaking to the community, especially the student body, from which they are supposedly serving on behalf.

WHO SAID IT?

"Mr. Heinrich is a great man, a wonderful father, and a passionate man." 

That quote about ABQ Dem Congressman and US Senate hopeful Martin Heinrich is from none other than northern US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan who is seeking re-election this year. 

Lujan and Heinrich ought to be saying nice things about one another.  Both of them came to the congress in the 2008 Obama wave and both are positioned to be around for a long time.

The latest polling from the Heinrich camp as they prepare for their first TV debate with Republican Heather Wilson Thursday night at 6 on KRQE-TV has him in the comfort zone:

An internal poll conducted for Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich's New Mexico Senate campaign shows his lead growing over former GOP Rep. Heather Wilson. The poll, conducted by GBA Strategies, shows Heinrich leading Wilson 55 percent to 42 percent in a head-to-head match up. When Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie is included in the poll, Heinrich's lead shrinks to 12 points: Heinrich 51, Wilson 39, Barrie 8. It's an improvement from Heinrich's last internal poll, released in late September, which showed the Democrat up by eight.

MONTOYA VS. OCKSRIDER

The under-the-radar race for an ABQ seat on the state Public Regulation Commission comes to life as Republican Christoper Ocksrider--running as the underdog against Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya--announces this news:

Ocksrider (received) endorsements from the Chicano Police Officers’ Association and from former Governor David Cargo. "When you consider education, experience and ethics, Christopher is clearly the best candidate for this important position,” wrote Cargo in his letter of endorsement.

Ocksrider's father served in the Legislature from ABQ's NE Heights back in the 70's. The battle between Ocksrider and Montoya is over who will succeed Commissioner Jason Marks who is term-limited.

NM DYNASTY

The WaPo recently had some fun asking readers to name state political dynasties. Here's what they came with for our state:

New Mexico – The Lujáns

The Lujáns include current Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and former state health secretary Michelle Luján Grisham (D), who is about to join him in Congress. Ben Ray’s father, Ben, was speaker of the state House, and Michelle’s grandfather, Eugene, was chief justice of the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, a distant Republican relative, Manuel Luján, served as a longtime congressman and later as U.S. secretary of the interior, and his father of the same name was mayor of Santa Fe.

But the Lujans have not always had it easy when it comes to building a dynasty. Back in 1988, Manuel Lujan tried to hand off his ABQ congressional seat to his brother Edward who was soundly defeated in the GOP primary.

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First let's hit today's first day of voting for Election 2012 and then move to the campaign trail for the latest action that you don't want to miss....

Voters across the state begin casting ballots today, nearly a full month before Election Day, November 6. They can do so at the offices of county clerks across the state. Also, absentee ballots will start to be mailed out today. And today is the deadline for people to register to vote.

As much as 60% of the total New Mexico general election vote will be cast before the actual Election Day.

If you want to be an early bird in big Bernalillo County you can cast your vote today at the My Vote Center at 620 Lomas Boulevard, NW. It will be open from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., Monday through Saturday until November 3. Sixteen additional early vote centers open October 20 and that's when swarms of voters hit the polls. Candidates are advised to have their messages out there loud and clear by that day. Now we take you out to our exclusive coverage of the campaign trail...

TO THE TRAIL

Tim Jennings

The home of New Mexico politics is in the middle of Campaign '12, tracking the important action and our veterans of La Politica are checking in with the news you will find only here.

For example, a Senior media Alligator breaks the news that the Reform NM Now PAC, led by Guv Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey and which says it will be active in over 20 legislative races, will not just use mail to try to oust Dems but expensive TV time as well:

Michael Sanchez

Reform NM Now has purchased $181, 000 in time on ABQ affiliates for 10 days--from 10/19-28.  Plus an additional $34,000 on KOB from 10/29 through the election. The order does not specify what message the ads will carry. The first spot I can find is the KOB 5:30-6 am news on Friday, 10/19.  Negative campaigns often start on Friday because it will probably be Tuesday before opposing campaigns are able to respond.

Dem state Senator Tim Jennings is purchasing TV time in his race against Republican Cliff Pirtle as the Reform PAC pours big money into the Roswell area district to defeat him. We're told Reform NM is doing TV as well.

We ad the cautionary vote that advance TV buys can end up being cancelled, but with Reform PAC flush with cash there's no reason to not expect Jay to pull the trigger and flood the ABQ airwaves with the dates posted above by our Senior Alligator.

Reform NM is also conducting a high-dollar negative campaign against that other prominent Dem Senate Leader--Michael Sanchez--in Valencia County. TV time to hit Sanchez seems to loom.

Jay McCleskey

It's unusual for legislative candidates individually to go up on the tube because it is so cost inefficient--you are reaching thousands of voters who can't cast ballots for you--and it costs a bunch. But when these races escalate into big money battles you will see a legislative race or two pop up on the tube.

Along those lines, our Alligators report seeing a TV spot for Dem state Senate candidate and attorney Lisa Curtis. She is fighting to take the ABQ seat vacated by Republican Kent Cravens and to which she was appointed. Mark Moores is the Republican hopeful in the heavy Republican district.

As for the state of the all-important, everybody-all-in Sanchez and Jennings races, both leaders have launched vigorous counterattacks and both are well-liked in their districts. Our observers feel they are favored for re-election, but no one is taking any chances with Susana going all out via the Reform PAC.

And let's be clear. It is the Governor targeting the two leaders. Technically, the Reform NM Now PAC is not under her wing. But the fact that it is run by the person she relies on most for advice and who has been labeled the "Shadow Governor" says it all.

If Martinez picks off either Sanchez or Jennings it will be a major coup, but if they win, she will have no fig leaf to cover her. She will own those losses and they will have a major impact on how her legislative program will be greeted in the 2013 legislative session, not to mention making her look less formidable as she prepares her own re-election bid.

ALL OR NOTHING

This is the "all or nothing" approach this Governor has chosen from the beginning--refusing to compromise and holding out for total victory. So far, it has not hurt her with the public. In a poll conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on July 17 she scored a 59% approval rating. In the ABQ Journal poll in early September she polled an even higher 69% approval--although that poll was heavily influenced by the bounce the Guv received by speaking at the GOP National Convention.

Syndicated columnist Jay Miller comes with this take on the Guv's so far enduring popularity:

Despite Martinez' s unwillingness to compromise, she remains quite popular. Many Democrats complain her popularity is not deserved because she can't claim to have accomplished much. It could be that is what New Mexicans want. Bill Richardson could claim a ton of accomplishments and it made him popular into his second term. But by the end of that term, the economy was sinking and Richardson's expensive accomplishments weren't paying off with the economic development he had promised.  Could it be that New Mexicans are glad to take a breather from expensive projects and are enjoying a more limited state government under a cost conscious governor? Publicity of Martinez for being run by shadowy advisers, misusing email accounts and an insider award of a racino contract hasn't hit any raw nerves with 69 percent of New Mexicans.

And we would add that while there have been some eyebrow raising scandals in the Guv's first two years--emailgate, the Downs at ABQ racino lease and the Gardner tapes--they have played out in the media sporadically. There has been no paid media attacking her and the Democratic Party has for the most part played a hands-off role.

STATE OF THE GUV

In this modern era, the media reach of the chief executive dominates. The two Governors we have had since we permitted them to seek second four year terms--Johnson and Richardson--have both achieved it. Martinez is no lock for re-election, but her early strength positions her well.

What Martinez has to be careful about is galvanizing the majority Democrats. That's why her brash decision to take on the Dem Senate leaders is politically questionable. You make a lot of enemies if you lose and the benefits of winning are not all that clear. Dems will still control the Senate and even the loss of Jennings and Sanchez is not going to change that.

It is the smallness of the Martinez agenda that has led critics to charge that her attack against Jennings and Sanchez is pure vindictiveness and revenge. She is railing against them for blocking the repeal of the law that allows undocumented workers to get state driver's licenses and for not passing a bill that would hold back third graders who are not proficient in reading. That is not an agenda that has far reaching ramifications fore the daily life of New Mexicans, thus the narrative that the real agenda here is simply to punish--not to advance a program.

When it comes to legislation Martinez is nearly a mirror image of former GOP Governor Gary Johnson. He vetoed everything in sight if it did not follow his instructions to the letter. There was no compromise then and there is no compromise now.

These are different eras, however. Johnson had the benefit of a bull market economy that provided plentiful jobs and incomes. Martinez presides over an elongated recession which her administration has done little to address. Therein lies the hope of the opposition--that they can link the lousy economy and the administration's inability to address it to the political campaign of '14.

WAR ON WOMEN?

We told you about that news conference seven women candidates planned to blast Reform NM PAC and Jay McCleskey. They did just that on the steps of the old ABQ City Hall:

Seven Democratic women...complain that Reform NM Now has targeted them with negative mailings that are "unfair" and "inaccurate" - a charge Reform NM Now denies. The PAC accuses them of favoring higher taxes and driver's licenses for illegal immigrants - some of the Governor's top hot-button issues. "If Jay McCleskey and his PAC, Reform New Mexico, think picking on women is easier, they've got another think coming," said state Sen. Lisa Curtis, running for election after being appointed to a vacant seat after the 2010 election."We will not stand for lying or cheating. Voters deserve issue-oriented discussion."

Republican female candidates, like Monica Youngblood of Albuquerque, say that's exactly what the Reform PAC is delivering. "It's a distraction that they're trying to pull this other issue up with war on women," said Youngblood, who is running for a newly created state House seat on Albuquerque's Westside. "It really has nothing to do with that. As a female candidate who supports the governor's reforms, that's where the question needs to lie."

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

We expect another ABQ Journal poll on the prez race to be taken this week and published Sunday. Remember that last one, where they had Obama leading Romney in the state by only five points? That was soon dubbed an "outlier" because it was influenced by the GOP national convention and other polls following it showed Obama doing better.

But now the Journal is apparently in the field in what could be another good week for Romney because of last week's blown debate by Obama. They could again show the race close, only to be followed again by polls less influenced by that debate showing Obama with a bigger lead.

Whatever the case, the president took a hit here for his performance but it is highly unlikely it is going to change us from blue to red. Watch your TV screens. If the Romney campaign starts spending big money here, it will tell you they think they have a chance. So far, no TV from Mitt.

As for the prez, the Hispanic vote is key. If he is going to pull over 65% of it, there's no way Mitt can touch him. So as the start of early voting begins at courthouses across the state today, we get this from the Prez's PR camp:

The Obama campaign announced that Ted Kennedy, Jr., the eldest son of the late Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, and nephew of Senator Robert Kennedy and President John F. Kennedy, will join the Obama campaign for two days in Northern New Mexico and Albuquerque as New Mexicans begin early voting....Ted Kennedy, Jr. will discuss the clear choice New Mexicans face this election at grassroots events in Santa Fe, Española, and Albuquerque.

Today Kennedy will be in Santa Fe at noon for a rally at the downtown El Dorado Hotel. He will be in Española tonight from 7:00-8:00 p.m. at the Plaza de Espanola Convento, 706 Bond Street. On Wednesday he will appear in ABQ at noon at the Obama for America Northeast Heights field office at 7301 Indian School Road NE.

The Kennedy family has always been popular in the Hispanic community and like we said, the support of Hispanics is key for the president. It's how Slate Magazine reports Obama took New Mexico off the “swing state” map?

DEBATE TIME

The first round of congressional debates gets underway tonight. At 7 p.m. Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham faces off on KNME-TV with Republican Janice Arnold-Jones. They are vying for the ABQ congressional seat.

At 7 p.m. Wednesday northern Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan and Republican challenger Jeff Byrd will debate on KNME. Thursday at 9 p.m. it will be Republican Congressman Steve Pearce facing his Dem challenger Evelyn Madrid Erhard.

The KNME debates will be moderated by the peripatetic ABC newsman Sam Donaldson which should keep things jumping.

Also this week, KRQE-TV will host the first US Senate TV debate between Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson on Thursday, October 11, from 6 to 7 p.m.  

Heinrich leads Wilson 51% to 41% in the latest PPP poll. The Wilson camp continues to attack the poll and points out it does not include independent candidate Jon Barrie. But all polls--no matter who has sponsored them--has shown Heather trailing. Obama leads Romney 52% to 43% in the PPP poll taken Oct 2-3 before the first presidential debate. The poll did not include Gary Johnson.

Not including Barrie or Johnson in the polls is no big sin. They have no paid media up and are not going to be major factors unless they come with some. We expect the second ABQ Journal poll to be conducted this week and released this weekend will include the third party contenders. The TV debates will not.

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To the campaign trail on this Columbus Day 2012 and we find the action in two State Senate contests...

The campaign is well underway in ABQ's SE Heights where Dem State Senator Tim Keller--seeking a second four year term--faces Republican Shannon Robinson--who was the Democratic Senator for the district until being defeated by Keller in the June 2008 primary. Robinson reports having only about $5,000 in his campaign kitty at the end of September so if Keller is going to get hit hard it will have to be by outside PACS. Keller had over $117,000 in the bank at the end of September. (Of course, it was third party "progressive" PACS attacking Robinson that helped make possible Keller's win over Robinson).

In the meantime, an old story that hurt Shannon four years ago has resurfaced--the $1 million in capital outlay he secured to build a rugby field in Santa Fe--over 60 miles from his SE Heights district. That remains controversial because the SE Heights district is so worn down that a large section of it is still known as "The War Zone" even though area residents prefer "International Zone."

Keller is heavily favored. Sentiment at the start of this race is that Rs wanted to bring damage Keller's statewide political prospects, but they have yet to hit him hard, using some robocalls but there's been no sightings yet of the Reform NM Now PAC in the district.

JENNINGS VS. PIRTLE

It was none other than former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. who had Robinson register as a Republican, prompting speculation that the R's wanted to tarnish the badge of Keller who is considered a rising star in the state Dem Party. And that leads us to this news....

It seems former GOP chair Yates is going all in for Dem State Senator Tim Jennings in Roswell--even though the Governor's chief political adviser is running the Reform NM Now PAC that is targeting Jennings.

A check of state finance reports shows that on August 13 Yates' Jalapeno Corporation gave $2,000 to Jennings. Yates joins Republican Roswell oilman Mark Murphy in supporting Jennings as well as another member of the Yates oil family who donated to Jennings.

The Republican support of Jennings shows how the Guv's high-profile intervention in this legislative contest is going to cause a fissure in her party. But as she showed when she took sides in the June GOP state Senate contest in Clovis, she doesn't much care.

Along those lines, Sam Spencer, a prominent Lea County Republican banker who was appointed to the state Board of Finance by Governor Martinez, is supporting Jennings. He lent his name to a recent fund-raiser for the Senator. That's another sign that Martinez is going to have some bridges to repair if she comes up empty-handed in her effort to take Jennings out.

(We blogged Friday that Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner said in a secretly recorded conversation that he "hated" Roswell. Actually, it was Brian Powell--the other party to the conversation--who used the word "hate." Gardner said in response, "I’m with ya, I’m 100 percent with you.")

WOMEN TARGET JAY

Now the backlash. Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey is stirring hornets nests all over the state with his Reform NM Now PAC targeting a bevy of legislative candidates, including a number of women hopefuls. Now they are hitting back.  Political consultant Traci Cadigan says about a dozen women candidates will hold a press conference at 2:00 pm today in front of the main entrance to the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Government Building (City Hall) to denounce "the unfair, untrue attacks." From the release:

Voters’ mailboxes have been flooded with negative attacks against the women. The attacks are at best misleading, and at worst, outright lies. For instance, Reform New Mexico accused State House District 15 candidate Emily Kane of supporting the law giving drivers’ licenses to illegal immigrants, while in fact, she has stated publicly that she is squarely against the law.  Similarly, State House District 43 candidate Stephanie Garcia Richard was accused of supporting the drivers’ license law, when in fact, she is against it.  “Reform New Mexico has no regard for the truth.  It is sad that their negative mailers are in such bad need of fact checking,” said Emily Kane. In another mailed attack, Reform NM accused District 23 State House candidate Marci Blaze of attacking her Republican opponent’s family and his personal financial and bankruptcy records.  In fact, neither Marci Blaze nor her campaign has said anything about her opponent’s family or his financial troubles.  Reform NM PAC simply made it up....

“There are only 7 women in the Senate.  We have good women candidates.  This PAC has no rules or ethics or respect for the truth.  This well-funded group is a win at all costs PAC and they have a lot of money, but if they think that the women candidates won’t fight back – they are very wrong about that.” said State Senator Lisa Curtis, who is running for election in Senate District 21.

McCleskey and the Governor are determined to try to take over the Legislature and are stirring a hornet's nest in the process. The problem is Jay McCleskey has become a public figure and the foil for the Dems.

HANISEE VS. ZAMORA

Hanisee

Zamora

There hasn't been a Republican elected to the New Mexico Supreme Court since the 80's, but once in a while a Republican sneaks through and gets elected to the ten member NM Court of Appeals.

This year Republican J. Miles Hanisee hopes he's one who sneaks through. But it will be tough. He faces ABQ District Court Judge Monica Zamora. Hanisee was appointed by Governor Martinez to fill a vacancy on the court last year. The job pays about $118,000 a year.

One interesting aspect of this race is the money trail and how close the competitors are. Take a look:

Hanisee opted for public financing, a system intended to prevent political influence on candidates for judgeships. Hanisee has received $179,629...Zamora is accepting money from private contributors for her campaign. She had $157,215, but reported all but about $25,000 had been spent....Zamora said public financing of judicial candidates has drawbacks that make it imperfect. New Mexico is a poor state, and certain voters are uncomfortable with their tax dollars going toward candidates they do not support or believe in, she said. She said she was scrupulous about not reading or checking her list of political donors. That way there is no possibility of her knowing who contributed to her election campaign, and no possibility that she would be influenced by them. Before the primary, she received contributions from more than 110 attorneys and law firms, by far her largest bloc of donors.

While Judge Zamora wrestles with the issue of public financing, Republican Judge Hanisee has some controversy in his own party. Here it is:

As a defense lawyer, Hanisee played a role in one of New Mexico's notorious public corruption cases.He helped represent former state senator Manny Aragon, a Democrat, who pleaded guilty in 2008 to three felonies in a scheme to defraud the state of nearly $4.4 million. Aragon is serving a 5 1/2-year sentence in federal prison. "I think it was a fair deal," Hanisee said in summing up the plea bargain.

That's interesting because once again Aragon has become a campaign issue--or at least the political action committee being run by the Guv's political adviser is trying to make him one. It has sent mail out against Dem State Senator Tim Jennings for writing a letter that asked for leniency for Aragon. Now you have a Republican seeking higher office who handled his legal case. Manny may still be serving his prison sentence, but he still casts a shadow in La Politica.

In 2010, Judge Richard Robles squeaked by Republican Ned Fuller--50.8% to 49.2%--to take the seat Zamora and Hanisee are now vying for. '10 was a huge Republican year. '12 promises to be different. Hanisee will need some of those Democratic votes Aragon was so adept at corralling.

(Zamora Sunday won the endorsement of the the Las Cruces Sun-News).

WHO'S THE CHAIR?


We blogged Thursday about how the strength of New Mexico trial lawyers could get a boost if attorney and State Rep. Kenny Martinez becomes the new Speaker of the NM House in January. And that got the Alligators wondering about who will chair the House Judiciary Committee--a high-profile slot where big news can be made from. ABQ State Rep. Al Park is current chair and leaving at the end of the year. The best bets to replace him? ABQ Dem State Rep. Gail Chasey and ABQ Dem Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas. Both are well-liked in the corridors of the Roundhouse.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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