Martinez & Pirtle

There may be little certainty about how the key state legislative races will settle out Tuesday night, but one thing is for sure--when it's all over the toxic atmosphere at the Capitol will be even more so. It probably won't degenerate into those fist fights you see break out in the Italian Parliament, but it's going to be brutal and personal.

No Governor has ever gone this far publicly to try to get her way in Santa Fe--letting her chief political consultant go hog wild in races up and down the board--but no matter what happens Election Night it is clear she is not going to get her way.

The only path for legislative success for Martinez remains compromise. Could the approach of her own re-election bid in 2014 lead her down that path, despite the political assault she has led against the Senate leadership and in the toss-up state House races? You can hope.

Even if Senate leaders Jennings and Sanchez were to be defeated and the Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 60 years--the roadblocks in the Senate would still stand. And the personal animosity toward the Fourth Floor for what happened would run deep.

Maybe the Governor thinks legislators would cower in fear if she plays out a successful hand Tuesday night, but the odds are prohibitive for her to sweep. In fact, a number of observers believe the opposite could happen--the survival of Jennings and Sanchez and the Dems hold the House

The Governor is simply asking for too much--complete acquiescence on the part of the political system--a system in which Democrats comprise nearly half the electorate and her party barely a third.

We are at an inflection point with Governor Martinez. For two years she has governed in campaign mode, with her campaign consultant serving as shadow governor. Now, if she is to have any legislative success at all she will have to truly govern through negotiating and traditional tools of persuasion.

The alternative and the one we fear we shall see is a Governor as uncompromising as ever, determined to run in '14 against "a do-nothing" Legislature.

Everything in Santa Fe beginning next Wednesday gets harder because of the malevolence of this campaign. Harder feelings, harder heads and harder economic times.

THE PIC

The pic posted with the lead story is that of the Governor and Cliff Pirtle, the 27 year old Tea Party friendly rancher who seeking to upset Roswell Democratic State Senator and Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings. Pirtle's campaign has been run by Reform NM NOW, the PAC run by Guv consultant Jay McCleskey.

STRONG FINISHES

He's known as a salt of the earth kind of guy to his rural New Mexico friends and neighbors and Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings has come with a strong close for them in his battle with the Guv and Pirtle--a battle that will be recounted for decades to come. In his final TV ad, he calls the campaign against him destructive and that the charge he is soft on child killers "ridiculous." Jay and the gang are also finishing strong, with more new charges. It has been relentless and who will win is still up in the air.

The other strong finish comes from trial attorney and Democrat Lisa Curtis who faces an uphill fight as she attempts to take the state Senate seat vacated by Kent Cravens. Here's her final TV ad (we know. TV ads in state Senate races!) taped in her home kitchen and from where she says New Mexico is the poorest state in the nation, but politicians want to talk about other, less important, issues:

Politicians want to focus other issues, and I get it. We do have bad laws like driver's licenses that must be reformed. But honestly, we are the poorest state in the nation and we have got to work together, put party aside and get things done...

Curtis is opposed by Republican Mark Moores. One of his supporters knocked the Curtis spot for being filmed in her expensively outfitted kitchen while she waxed sorrowful over the state's economy.

Curtis, who has largely self-financed her expensive campaign, has built a lot of name ID during this campaign, but she tells us she is not aiming for higher office. But we learned decades ago when they put their name in lights, it hurts when they see it dim.

MAD MONEY

We're now in the millions in the spending derby in the state legislative contests. The jaw-dropping totals in this new era of super PAC's:

A PAC with ties to Gov. Martinez reported spending $1.4 million on House and Senate races last month, with $4 of every $5 going for advertising and mailings. That was matched by a Democratic-leaning group called Patriot Majority New Mexico, which spent $1.3 million during October. More than three-fourths of that went for mailings and ads.

Reform New Mexico Now...reported raising $1.6 million last month and is targeting about two dozen legislative races. Its top donor was a national GOP group, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which contributed $715,000. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire, gave $200,000...Two oil and natural gas companies, Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy Production, each gave $100,000.

Patriot Majority raised $619,500 during October, with most of that from labor unions. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees contributed $200,000, a political committee of the American Federation of Teachers gave $150,000 and a PAC of the Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters contributed $180,000.

As one of our Alligators, put it: "A new age has dawned and it isn't pretty. It will forever change the friendly and small-town climate of the Legislature--where friendships abound across the aisle and personal animosity may exist, but is held back from public view."
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 JANICE'S LAST STAND

She started the underdog and she'll end that way, but she's also come a long way in terms of her personal confidence and ability on the stump. Here's ABQ GOP Congress candidate turning it on at an outdoor rally. She calls former ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan ('69-'89) to the stage and says she intends to honor how he handled the job--especially his effectiveness with constituent services.

But if the polls are right and they usually are when they show as big a gap as they do in this contest, it will be Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham in the victory circle week and trying "to honor" the Lujan way. She is related to Manuel.

WALKING IT HOME

Now it is so close for Grisham. Sure, the position of congresswoman may not be as celebrated as it once was, having been reduced to a constant chase for campaign dollars, but it's still the United States Congress. And it's about to be hers. No missteps into the weekend, just the release of a final TV spot touting her newspaper endorsements, some meet and greets and exhorting all to vote for the entire Democratic ticket. That's it. You take no chances. You practice a joyful acceptance speech that includes a good dose of humility. On Tuesday you walk this one home...and into history.

DEM TIDE?

He's partisan but veteran field operative Steve Cabiedes says the tide will come in for the Dems Tuesday.

We are now working for Democratic legislative candidates in far north areas of Bernalillo County, precincts that we usually don't go into. But the campaigns are telling us they are fine in the middle of the city so we are now up there. That means the districts of GOP State Reps Nate Gentry and Conrad James.

Cabiedes says if a Dem wave hits in the county Tuesday, James is especially at risk, Gentry could get wet and Dem state Senate candidate Lisa Curtis could benefit in her race against Mark Moores.

PILE ON TIME

She's never been one of them and now with a victory for her looking as likely as New Mexicans boycotting red chile, the conservative wing is piling on GOP US Senate standard bearer Heather Wilson:

Heather Wilson was always overrated as a candidate. She was a Domenici protege and state party favorite going back to her first term as a member of the House, and leaders in the state party kept trying to foist her on Republican voters. As a moderate Republican, she has never inspired a lot of enthusiasm from many rank-and-file Republicans and conservative independents, and as a reliable yes vote for bad Bush administration policies in the 2000s she embodied everything that most New Mexicans came to dislike about the national Republican Party...

In the rough and tumble of the increasingly hard-edged politics of the 21st century, the slogan isn't just to kick them when they're down but to kick them even harder.

HEATHER AND A HURRICANE

Popular New Mexico musician Al Hurricane was on the final days campaign trail for Heather Thursday. We've seen him in the last hours of previous Wilson efforts but this time was different--she joined the guitar playing pro on her banjo which she features in one of her closing TV spots.

We said yesterday she could play "Oh, Susana, don't you cry for me, I'm going to Rio Arriba with a banjo on my knee..." but a campaign operative pointed out the musical duo did not campaign in Rio Arriba County, but Taos, Las Vegas and Mora.

No word on what Al and Heather were playing here, but the song "I believe in Miracles" would be appropriate as she faces front runner Dem Martin Heinrich. Here's the Pearl Jam version.

A PRISTINE KITCHEN

Another take on the US Senate race. This one from Clara Hittel writing in the Santa Fe Reporter:

I don’t know about you, but I’ve become far too familiar with Heather Wilson’s pristine kitchen, and I’m not even sure it’s real. I have grown equally weary of Martin Heinrich’s need to convince us that he comes home to New Mexico “almost every weekend.”---We’ve all seen the current US Senate campaign ads, and I, for one, am more fascinated than ever before by the candidates’ presumptuous method of force-feeding us broad and flawed information in the midst of our favorite TV programs. They spend the majority of airtime tattling on each other like schoolchildren, declaring that the opponent is “too extreme” or has “the wrong priorities” for New Mexico. While slandering your competition is a proud American custom, it’d be nice if more of the ads actually elaborated on the issues in question. Aren’t politics supposed to be serious?

Politicians serious, Clara? Now that's what you would call the triumph of hope over experience.

RAISE YOUR HAND

And here's Dem Martin Heinrich down in Dona Ana asking the faithful to raise their hands if they've already voted. (Or was he asking how many would like a free lunch from his campaign?) Looks like a lot of them have. Over 50% of the statewide vote is expected to be cast before Tuesday's traditional election day.

We've been covering statewide campaigns a long time--and have helped run a number of them--so it caught our interest that Martin was down in Dona Ana with only days left in the campaign.

What that tells you is that he is more than comfortable that his base in big Bernalillo County is nailed down and he can get out of here and hype turnout in other parts of the state.

Not that Heinrich has had a cake walk. It's been a campaign that has tested him and Heather's last hours hard-driving effort could shave his margin of victory next Tuesday.

We look forward to working with the next US Senator from New Mexico. It will be tougher if it is Heather because of the hard edge she and her operatives have taken with us and sometimes other media during her lengthy career. But we will do it as we are committed to performing our little part to advance the state's interests in Washington during these critical years. For us, it's about progress, not personalities.

Martin's staff is more than competent and he seems to grow leaps and bounds as the years roll by. We know he can do the heavy lifting that we expect of him in Washington--and if he wins next week, we're all going to expect it.  His press operation was criticized this week for excluding an advocacy reporter from a right-wing think tank from a Heinrich campaign event, but that's par for the course on both sides these days.

We've called this the most important New Mexico US Senate election in our lifetime. And we still believe that. Both Wilson and Heinrich have broken with the Martinez administration and the conservative press and pledged an all-out battle to preserve our immense federal funding as New Mexico works to become less dependent on that spending in the years ahead.

We're proud of both of them for standing up for the people of this state.

UDALL FOR BARRERAS

Dem US Senator Tom Udall comes with a radio endorsement of Dem Valencia County House contender Andrew Barreras who is locked in a do-or die battle with Republican Kelly Fajardo.

We told you about Barreras being buried under an avalanche of more than 25 mail pieces from Reform NM Now PAC.  Hey, if Andrew survives, maybe his campaign supporters will buy him a paper shredder.

BYRD IN THE AIR

We were a wee bit surprised that northern Dem US Congressman Ben Ray Lujan passed on doing any TV spots this cycle, but he does have an overwhelming lead over GOP rancher Jeff Byrd of Tucumcari.

Byrd has struggled to raise money but he finally raised enough to put a couple of TV spots up, including this bio spot that shows him working on the ranch.

The Lujan district is heavy Dem but Byrd will run well in conservative San Juan County in the Four Corners and his late TV will mean more GOP voters around the district will know him.

If Lujan takes the win, he will begin his third two year term in the US House in January.

GAMBLING OX?

The mostly out-of-sight race for the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat goes wild and wooly and down and dirty.

First, Republican attorney Chis "Ox" Ocksrider implies in a TV spot that Karen Montoya, the Dem Bernalillo County Assessor who is his PRC foe, is under investigation by the FBI. But there is no confirmation of that or any other probe.

That hit on Karen earned Ocksrider a bristling radio and TV retort that implies he's a problem gambler who owns no property in his own name, has never been married and speculates that his gambling had something to do with a nonprofit being unable to keep its financial commitment to a charity. Let's take a look at the script in which "The Ox" is gored:

We can't afford to gamble with the Public Regulation Commission. We can't afford to elect Christopher Ocksrider, 47 years old, never married, a known gambler. Is that why he doesn't own any property. His home? Owned by his mother. Touted as one of Albuquerque's hot singles. Was gambling the real reason he left a nonprofit after discrepancies were discovered? We don't need another Jerome Block...

Kids, that's how the game of innuendo for innuendo is played.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Well, we're just about at the end of another long march down the campaign trail, and that means it's soon time for the Election Eve Special.

We'll kick it off at 5 p.m. Monday live on KANW 89.1 FM and streamed live at kanw.com. It will be a full hour of the best and most complete political analysis anywhere in the state. My guests will include former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim, Dem Santa Fe State Rep. Brian Egolf, Republican veterans Bob Cornelius and Jamie Estrada. And we're pleased to have journalist Milan Simonich of Texas-New Mexico Newspapers Partnership on hand to keep all of them on the straight and narrow.

I am looking forward to having you with me Monday and again on Tuesday night on KANW-FM for our traditional Election Night coverage officially beginning at 6:30, but we will be on the air before then with east coast presidential results.

Our sponsors this year are PNM, Griffin and Associates, J.D. Bullington Government Relations, IATSE Studio Mechanics Local 480 and the Albuquerque Teachers Federation. Thanks much to all of them for their support of public radio.

Our first Election Night broadcast was in June of 1974 on KUNM-FM radio when we announced the first ABQ mayor's race under the then new mayor-council form of government. We started Election Night coverage at KANW in 1988 and have covered every primary and state election for them since. Station Manager Michael Brasher tells me our audio will be streamed on cable TV this year. We'll tell you more about that next week.

It's been quite a run, and we thank the station, manager Brasher, our many sponsors over the years and, of course, you, our listeners.

Back here with the Monday blog or before if events merit, and on Twitter as well. In the meantime, once again....

I'm Joe Monahan reporting to you from Albuquerque

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The battle for the state House goes on and where it ends nobody knows.

"If anyone says they can tell you how this is going to turn out they are blowing smoke, said one top Dem working closely on the campaigns.

The Dems hold the House 36 to 33 with one independent. The Reform NM PAC run by the Guv's political consultant has pumped hundreds of thousands into the races. Dems have answered with hundreds of thousands from their own out of state funded super PAC.

Much of that cash has gone into the well publicized race featuring Dem Senate incumbent Michael Sanchez, but the battle rages in the lesser known races as well.

Dems involved in the campaign say an astounding 21 negative mail pieces have been sent into the Valencia County district of Andrew Barreras, the former Dem state Rep. who is trying to reclaim a legislative seat and is opposed by Kelly Fajardo.

And we are hearing of similar numbers of hits in the other contested races,

The super PAC money has changed the very fabric of the legislative campaign process. Never have we seen so much money go into these races for unpaid, part-time lawmakers. Maybe this year is an exception because the Governor is trying to tip the Legislature in her favor, but once the money cat is out of the bag, it's hard to put it back.

New Mexico legislative races of the future may be destined to become big money, negative campaign affairs that inundate districts with too much literature, too much door knocking, too much phone calling, too much super PAC money and...well....you get the idea.

WHERE ARE WE AT?


So where does the fight for the 70 member House stand as we head into the final weekend of Campaign '12? Do the R's have a chance of taking over the chamber for the first time in 60 years? Or will the Dems add to their numbers strengthening the hand of presumed House Speaker Kenny Martinez?

With the kind of money being thrown around in these races, there are no safe predictions. We simply don't know the full effect of it despite polling which can often be off the mark in these small turnout contests. It is even possible that there will be zero change in party strength in the House when the Election Night dust has settled--not likely but possible.

And what races will decide the outcome? There are better than half a dozen. The highlights:

Dona Ana State Rep. Andy Nunez who switched from Dem to independent and became a strong supporter of Governor Martinez only to have the PAC run by her political team turn against him, appears to be weakened going in to the final hours. The beneficiary of attacks on Nunez by both the R's and the Dems appears to be Dem nominee Felipe Archuleta.

R's point out that they will pick up the new House seat that was created on ABQ's west side when a Dem seat in the north was eliminated. Monica  in redistricting. Monica Youngblood is the GOP hopeful. Eloise Gift is the Dem.

In Valencia County, you have that comeback effort by Dem Andrew Barreras who is being hammered daily by Reform NM. And his GOP foe--Kelly Fajardo--is getting the same treatment from the Dem connected Patriot Majority super PAC. The race is too close to call.

A late addition to the watch list is the seat of GOP State Rep. Alonozo Baldonado. He is favored but Dem challenger Frank Otero is working it hard. If the heated Sanchez-Chavez Senate race there results in Dems getting fired up and out to the polls, it could impact Alonozo.

In Bernalillo County Dems are increasingly confident that firefighter Emily Kane will beat out Republican Chris Saucedo for the ABQ NE Heights seat being vacated by Rep. Bill O'Neill who is running for Senate. Saucedo started the race as the slight favorite, but Kane has worked it hard. We'll watch it closely on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and streamed live at kanw.com starting at 6:30 p.m.

OTHER KEY RACES


ABQ GOP State Reps Nate Gentry and Conrad James are favorites to retain their NE Heights seats, but Dems are making a play. A big Obama night in the county could deliver close races or a surprise upset.

R's are saying that Rep. Ray Begaye has climbed up their target list because of his ethical problems. A GOP pick-up in this Navajo Country district would be a major coup.

Both parties are saying they will win the Los Alamos area seat of GOP State Rep. Jim Hall. He is being challenged by Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard. The race has been a see-saw.

And both GOP and Dem analysts think they have a winner in the Blaze-Pacheco race. Dem Marci Blaze and Republican Paul Pacheco have been bruising one another for months in the westside, Corrales area district that has a slight GOP tilt. This one could be a nail-biter.

A late addition to the second-tier watch list comes from Hobbs, with Dems saying Hector Ramirez has a shot against Republican David Gallegos, but this is going to be a banner county for Romney so any Dem move would be a major upset. But the race is worth your attention next Tuesday.

Besides those major Republican challenges to Senators Jennings and Sanchez, the GOP hopes to take out Dem State Senator John Sapien in the Corrales/Bernalillo area.  GOP State Rep. David Doyle is the challenger. He has had major problems with residency and other issues, but Dems fret that the word about Doyle has not been effectively spread. Sapien remains the favorite, but the race is still open.

So what's the "over-under" for the state House for Election Night. It's a pick up for the House Democrats of "2." That's the most likely outcome as seen from this corner. But you can take the over or the under if if you see it differently.

HE'S ALIVE!

A Mitt Romney TV ad in blue New Mexico? Yep. Like Lazarus, Romney rises, resurrected by last minute super PAC money so we won't be deprived of seeing his visage on our TV screens in the final days. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson has the report on Romney's heart ticking here.

A RISK FREE WEH

Former GOP Chairman Harvey Yates is shaking the political earth down Roswell way by vigorously endorsing Dem Senator Tim Jennings and calling for the GOP consultants running the Reform NM Now campaign against Jennings to have their "wings clipped." But another former GOP Chairman--Allen Weh--is not venturing out on the limb like Harvey.

Weh comes with an endorsement of....hold your breath...GOP Supreme Court Justice Paul Kennedy?

That's it, Allen? No thoughts on what Harvey has done or about the campaign being waged by Reform consultant Jay McCleskey who took you out of the 2010 GOP race for Guv which you lost to Susana?

Maybe Allen still harbors political ambitions and doesn't want to step on anyone's toes?

NO SECOND BITE

We blogged Tuesday that our Roswell sources said that Governor Martinez would make a second appearance in Roswell for Cliff Pirtle the Republican farmer challenging Dem Senator Tim Jennings, but nothing has been announced for Friday or any other day so we are calling back that story.

Martinez's recent appearance for Pirtle drew only about 40 and we speculated that the campaign might respond by trying to turn our a bigger crowd at a second appearance.

Now there is a Steve Pearce for Congress rally in Roswell Saturday with Lt. Governor John Sanchez also appearing, And that may have bee the genesis of the second Guv rally for Pirtle report.

Complicating matters is that the state GOP and the Reform NM Now PAC will not discuss the Guv's campaign travels with us. But we're truckin' along pretty well just the same--with an occasional speed bump.

THE ALLIGATOR LIFE

Are there occasions when we are intentionally misled so we'll have egg on our Gator bib? What do you think? You are told of events that are scheduled then canceled or never take place, candidacies that are passed off as definite fade in the mist and the list of misinformation tactics goes on. But it's all part of the positioning of La Politica, especially in the final drama-filled days of the fight for the glory and the power. 

NAVAJO FACE-OFF

Dem State Rep. Ray Begaye is fighting to stave off GOP challenger Sharon Clahchischillage. As the temperature rises in the race, the email heats up. A sample:

Navajos could care less about Begaye taking any extra travel money.  Their thinking- That's what politicians do and besides it's State money and not Tribal money.  After all the Navajos have been through- chump change charges doesn't faze them.  If indeed the ad is true about Begaye's challenger firing staff for not "being White enough" that will get back to the Rez and will not be well received.  They would rather have Begaye than a Republican wanna be.

Sharon, 63, has made a number of runs for political office, including a campaign for Navajo Nation president.

A HURRICANE

Al Hurricane

You've probably hear enough about hurricanes this week to last a lifetime, but when it comes to Al Hurricanethe news is always welcome:

Musician Al Hurricane, also known as the Godfather of New Mexico Music, will hold three rallies with Heather Wilson in northern New Mexico on Thursday. Wilson and the Hurricane will hold rallies in Las Vegas, Mora and Taos."I'm proud to have New Mexico's favorite musician, Al Hurricane, in my corner," Wilson said. "We're looking forward to bringing our pro-jobs message to northern New Mexico."

Hey, maybe Heather will join Al on stage and pluck out a tune on the banjo we see her playing in her TV ad. "Oh, Susana, don't you cry for me, I'm going to Rio Arriba with a banjo on my knee...

THE BEAR

We were having so much fun. And then this popped up in our email from our City Hall sources. Albuquerque's economic growth is still in perilous shape. For July, August and September gross receipts tax collections fell:

July - negative 0.1%
Aug - negative 0.9%
Sep - negative 0.9%
Down a total of - 0.7% for the current budget year that began July 1.

And what does it mean? Our insiders report:

If we end the fiscal year next June with this trend, we will be around $10 million short. That could effect about 100 city jobs or more, or major cuts in recurring expenses in city departments. On the positive side, it could change if we get growth in the gross receipts tax in the coming month.

This is negative growth compared to the same months from last year. The FY13 budget that began July 1 was based on about 2.5% growth.  To hit our budget we need to grow at 4% on average for the next 9 months. What is alarming about this is when you compare our city to other cities that are growing.  We are definitely lagging when you compare cities, even Southwest cities.

We are lagging because we are getting hammered by government layoffs, the depression in the construction industry and the lack of overall growth in the private sector.

And city residents seem to be looking for some relief from the Bear Market on next Tuesday's ballot. The latest polling shows they will approve a proposal to increase the minimum wage in ABQ from $7.50 to $8.50 an hour. About 40,000 ABQ workers toil under the minimum wage and with the price of gas at $3.50 a gallon, it's no wonder that the hike is looking like a done deal.

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McGraw & Mary Jane (Stephen Jones photo)

It's all about hangin' on in these final hours of Campaign '12 and maybe hangin' on to someone who can do you some good.

Today we have Dona Ana Dem State Senator Mary Jane Garcia in the embrace of famous film actress and Santa Fe resident Ali McGraw, 73. Then there's Republicans Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson--political enemies if there ever were any--sharing smiles and enthusiasm in the waning hours. And embattled Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez asking and getting political love hugs from popular Democrats Senator Jeff Bingaman and Rep. Martin Heinrich.

About Senate Majority Whip Garcia. The 75 year old had an ethics mishap this cycle and was fined by the Secretary of State, but she remains heavily favored to beat Republican Lee Cotter and return to Santa Fe. Her love story with actress McGraw is rooted in their mutual concern for animal rights which Garcia has championed.

TOGETHER AGAIN

It is anything but a love story between Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson, but what the heck.

It's the final hours of what is likely Wilson's last political campaign and there's no point of going out on a sour note. Here the duo is soaked in sunshine and smiles at GOP headquarters in Carlsbad Monday.

Back in '08 Pearce narrowly beat Heather for the US Senate nomination and the fight turned nasty. This time Steve gets to watch Heather struggle as the GOP Senate nominee against Dem Martin Heinrich.

One thing that is hard to figure--would Pearce like working on the Hill more with Dem Heinrich than rival Wilson? Well, whatever the case they won't be able to accuse Steve of trying to sabotage Heather. Besides appearing with her in Carlsbad, he also cut a video criticizing Heinrich.

NO QUIT

There's just no quit in Wilson, even if it resulted this week in her releasing a suspect internal poll that showed her ahead--contrary to all available evidence and other polls. But maybe the survey that was widely dismissed in the state's political community is helping her raise some money. Karl Rove's American CrossRoads Super PAC announces it is coming with a final days TV buy for Wilson of over $500,000.

The problem? What is Crossroads going to say that hasn't already been said? The size of the slice of the electorate that is undecided wouldn't  satisfy the appetite of a Calvin Klein model.

Still, Wilson battles on because...well...she's Wilson. If she loses, Governor Martinez might harness some of that fight to lobby Republicans in congress for the state's federal military and energy funding. Just a thought...

SANCHEZ VS. CHAVEZ

King, Heinrich, Sanchez & Bingaman

And in the "law of unintended consequences category" we present the Michael Sanchez-David Chavez case.

By vociferously attacking Senate Majority Leader Sanchez the Reform NM PAC led by Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey is doing what few men walking the planet can do--he's unifying the state Democratic Party.

Here's Michael with pals Rep. Martin Heinrich, Senator Bingaman and Attorney General King. They all attended a rally in support of Michael in Belen Monday, united in their opposition to GOP State Rep. David Chavez who is trying to topple the powerful lawmaker.

Will it just be the political heavyweights who get united behind Sanchez in his hour of need or will the goodwill filter down to the grassroots Dem voters Sanchez needs to retain his seat?

SUSANA PULLS BACK

From where we sit the best TV ad of this cycle is the one Sanchez came with in response to a vicious hit by Reform NM. It features the leader and his wife Lynn seated on a sofa, looking comfortable and dismissing the attacks as the handiwork of big oil money from Texas and Oklahoma.

It's the calm demeanor of Sanchez that is striking, and the determined, yet friendly defense by his wife Lynn that has them talking. And boy, are they talking.

The Reform NM ad that featured Governor Martinez accusing Sanchez and Jennings of being soft on prison terms for child killers is gone. So why is the Governor no longer featured in the Sanchez-Jennings hit piece? Well, how about this--it wasn't working and it was putting Martinez's political popularity in jeopardy. Now Jay and the gang come with a new spot that continues to accuse the two Senators of being soft on child killers, but also throws in that old favorite--repeal of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants.

Sanchez's DC produced TV ad appears to have changed the game, and not only by increasing the chances that he will survive this challenge, but maybe setting him up for another. We speak of the contest for the 2014 Dem Guv nomination and the fight to take on Governor Susana.

2014 HERE WE COME

Sanchez has often toyed with the notion of running for Governor, but political pundits (That's not us, is it?) were not enthused about his prospects, pointing to his somewhat crotchety personality and the baggage of all his votes in the Senate.

But things can change in a hurry. If he wins next Tuesday, he will be the giant killer--taking on the Governor and all she could throw at him--and winning.

Hey, no wonder she doesn't want to be seen talking about Baby Brianna and challenging Sanchez anymore.

Attorney General King, pictured today with Sanchez, is already officially in the Guv's race. Trial attorney Sam Bregman is considering. And add a new name to your list of possibles--former US Ambassador Joe Wilson of Santa Fe has his antenna out (Well, you still have to have a Wilson running around here, don't you?).

A final note on the Sanchez-Chavez face-off.  Chavez was seen hanging out for a couple of hours at one of the local TV stations, giving rise to speculation that he is about to come with a nice-guy TV spot to try to match Michael's. He basically has let Reform NM and McCleskey run his campaign. We've heard a lot about Sanchez, but not much about Chavez.

SWITCHING SIDES?

The news that former Governor Big Bill is going to lobby for California's Spaceport sent the eyebrows arching and the armchair pundits pondering. After all, the New Mexico Spaceport, where a runway bears his name, is his baby. It is one of his legacy projects. For him to throw in with California was a head-shaker.
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Former Gov. Richardson, who championed development of New Mexico's spaceport, is going to work for California's spaceport. The Albuquerque Journal reports Richardson will sign a contract to lobby for Mojave Air and Space Port. Officials told the paper he is being hired to help them get so-called informed consent legislation passed. New Mexico has been trying for two years to get the same law passed, but has been blocked by trial lawyers in the Legislature. The law would exempt space craft parts suppliers from most civil lawsuits.

The reasons for Bill's switch may not be that mystifying. First, there is the money he will make. No doubt he will get a lot of it for lobbying to get so-called informed consent legislation for the California Spaceport. Second, and on a more Machiavellian level, maybe by going to work for California he also signals Governor Susana that she better step up her efforts regarding the Spaceport near T or C or she could lose it.

If Richardson is setting out bait for Martinez to get her to be more forceful about the Spaceport, she may or may not take it. Her administration, which took several years to begin embracing the project, now seems intent on blaming any lack of progress on the Legislature's failure to pass an informed consent bill which is opposed by the trial lawyers--a prominent Dem interest group.

That liability measure is sorely needed, but the Spaceport needs aggressive administration support in marketing and infrastructure. In other words, they need to play for success, not just have a handy excuse for failure.

It's discouraging to think that the byzantine politics of this state would kill one of the more promising economic development projects of a lifetime. Let's hope Big Bill is setting a trap for Susana to step it up and that she takes the step.

THE JOBS CRUNCH

The Martinez administration has come up with a novel approach to the loss of federal funding and federal jobs in the state--Don't worry about it. That's right. The jobs are going away and there's nothing we can do nor should we. This after the modern state economy was constructed around federal funding.

Where's the fight in Martinez and Economic Development Secretary Barela?  Do they save it all for those nasty campaign ads? Their job (you too, Mayor Berry) is to go to Washington or wherever they have to and argue for the merits of New Mexico's funding and protect their constituents from the downside--not just give up.

And the suggestion that lowering the corporate tax rate here is going to create jobs is naive. Governor Richardson made the same claim when he pushed through a massive personal income tax cut for the wealthy, taking the top rate down from over 8 percent to 4.9. Remember how he said that would bring jobs as corporate executives relocated their companies here? It didn't happen.

Taxes are only one small piece of the jobs equation. The administration needs to market New Mexico's quality of life while improving it. You can lower taxes to near zero and if the schools are lousy, drug and alcohol addiction is rampant and crime is a constant worry you are not going to get very far.

These problems are going to take time to solve. That's why the administration decision to surrender instead of fighting funding cuts is so worrisome. They are not going to be able to replace those jobs right away, but we know from experience that political savvy in DC can mean a lot of federal dollars--and jobs for our people.

It is the Tea Party's disdain for government jobs of any kind that seems to have infected the thinking at the top levels of the Martinez administration. The irony is that Martinez is a career government worker.

Secretary Barela says federal funding cutbacks are inevitable. And he may be right. But those cuts won't be fair or proportional. That's politics. And you need to play some politics to protect your share.

Maybe he's saving up something to say if he runs for the 2014 Republican Senate nomination. (Hey, how did we know that?)

DIMOND GETS ROUGH

Diane Dimond

There were some important matters left unsaid in the trio of presidential debates this year, says syndicated columnist, veteran TV reporter and ABQ native Diane Dimond:

 There have been no debate questions about topics parents worry about every day their children walk out the door: Drugs, gang violence, teen suicides or pregnancy, or schools and recreational activities haunted by pedophiles. 

Nothing was said about the scourge of mortgage or credit card fraud, identity theft, elder abuse or cyber-stalking....Sometimes I wonder about the tunnel vision of journalists who cover national politics. Did they all grow up in pristine neighborhoods where there was no crime? Has their status covering presidential candidates blinded them from seeing what regular folks have to grapple with? Why do they mostly lob policy-wonk questions?...

We hear you, Di. In New Mexico we are #1 in drug addiction deaths and near the top in teen suicide and pregnancy.

CONFUSION CLEARED

There's been confusion over who the Navajo Nation Council is endorsing in the US Senate race. That confusion ends with this report from the Farmington Daily Times:

The Navajo Nation Council threw its support behind two New Mexico Democrats for Congress on Monday--Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Luján. Luján is running for reelection as the representative for the 3rd Congressional District, which includes San Juan County and parts of the Navajo Nation. The tribe's speaker sent letters to both Democrats expressing the Navajo Nation's support for their campaigns.

MORE INDIAN COUNTRY

We posted that controversial Dem Party flier Tuesday attacking Dem State Rep. Ray Begaye's opponent for not being Navajo enough. And that drew this retort from Jared King, who says he knows Ray's foe and objects:

Your recent mailer stating that candidate Sharon Clahchischilliage is “not Navajo enough” is appalling. It is shocking that a state party would knowingly try to divide the Navajo people in their vote and impugn the integrity of a fine patriotic woman...For the Democratic Party of New Mexico to attempt to divide the Navajo people in a cynical and blatantly racist manner is unprecedented.

As a life-long Democrat and citizen of the Navajo Nation, I find this late-stage political smear campaign disturbing. I know first hand Sharon’s impeccable strength of character, poise and integrity. She is a patriot, a proud Navajo and a strong leader. I worked under Sharon’s leadership at the Navajo Nation Washington Office for several years and I know her well. Sharon fought to ensure the Navajo Nation had a seat at the table when it came to policy and program decision-making at the highest levels of government. Sharon directed her staff to always think of the Navajo people forefront in all of their dealings with both sides of the aisle, without regard to political affiliation. 

We welcome your comments, criticism and corrections.

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The mailboxes runneth over. Here we have a golden oldie slamming independent ABQ Senate candidate Joe Carraro for taking a "six day getaway to Hawaii--at taxpayer expense."

The slam came from GOP State Senator John Ryan who faces no Dem opponent, but has to keep his eye on Carraro, a former GOP senator for the Bernalillo and Sandoval county seat who has high name ID but not much campaign cash.

Ryan is seeking a third four year term in Santa Fe and his mailer closely mimics the one that was sent out against Carraro when he ran for the 2006 GOP US Senate nomination. He says:o

The Hawaii trip was taken in 2001 right after the 9/11 attacks and for a time all airlines were shut down. President Bush wanted to assemble leaders from each state and each party to listen to Tom Ridge propose the establishment of a new federal department called Homeland Security.  

I agreed to participate expecting that we would meet somewhere in America’s heartland so that we would all be able to take a bus.  But we were told the meeting would occur in Hawaii and of course we’d have to fly, I guess to encourage people that it was safe again. 

No one can recall an independent ever being elected to the Senate. That history combined with his cash advantage, puts Ryan in the driver's seat.

If and when he gets back to the Roundhouse he may be a bit lonely. His mentor and sometimes filibuster partner--Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair--is retiring.

TOO WHITE?

 And here's another mailbox hit...

 NM Dems are freaking out that longtime Navajo State Rep. Ray Begaye, mired in a number of ethics issues, could lose his seat and upset their plans to pick up power in the state House. The party comes with this controversial mailer featuring Navajo Republican Sharon Clahchischilliage--Begaye's opponent.

“(She) fired four employees of the Navajo Nation Office in Washington because she wanted them to be more like her white staff. It’s almost as if Sharon is ashamed of Navajos.”

Well, Sharon must be putting some heat on Ray for the Dems to play the race card. Of course, Rep. Begaye put the heat on himself when he doubled-billed some of his travel. It's being investigated by the attorney general.

Under redistricting Begaye's seat picks upo some Anglo dominated precincts in conservative Farmington and that's causing thr Dems to fret as Ray has been hit in the mail for his alleged ethical transgressions.

Analysts wonder if word of Begaye's troubles have spread in the far-flung reservation and if they have whether Ray's mishaps will be seen as serious there as they are in the off-reservation world.

SANCHEZ VS. CHAVEZ

The action continues in the high-stakes campaign featuring Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez and his GOP rival State Rep, David Chavez. Expensive TV ads to influence the Valencia County race are still coming. Conservation Voters of NM comes with this spot hitting Chavez for missing votes at the Roundhouse and says the ads attacking Sanchez and Jennings are financed by big oil.

 THE DOWNS DEAL

Fair Commissoner Rode

We're back on the down and dirty dealing over the 25 year racino lease approved for the Downs at ABQ. State Fair Commissioner Charlotte Rode is raising a stink over the latest developments--or we should say lack of developments:

... A year after the Downs won the award, they have yet to make significant progress towards completion.  The new contract is not being upheld.  They have not obtained a performance bond, shown evidence of financing or paid their utilities. The State Fair Commission is nowhere to be found.  Chairman Kennedy is playing ‘hide the ball’ and hasn’t convened a meeting since June, unilaterally running the commission and completely disregarding state law.  They are still operating in secret.  In the past year I have been denied nearly every document I’ve requested, even after submitting a formal public records request.  

The awarding of the Downs lease is being investigated by the state attorney general's office for possible bid-rigging.

We recently took note of speculation that the owners of the Downs could pull what happened down in Hobbs a couple of years ago--they win the lease and then turn around and cash in by selling the racino. That's why Rode and other observers are looking for proof of bank financing for the rebuild that is supposed to take place. Mainstream media quote  Downs General Manager Darren White as saying the new casino will open in the second quarter of 2013. We shall see. (Rode's full op-ed can be read here.)

THE VENGEFUL BEAR

Amid accusations that lawmakers are indulgent of child killers and endangering your home and hearth by not repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, you might forget that the Great Bear Market continues to ravage ABQ and New Mexico with a vengeance. The news is just terrible:

The Albuquerque metropolitan area lost 3,100 jobs in the 12 months that ended Sept. 30, or a third of the 9,200 jobs lost throughout New Mexico, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions said. The negative 0.8 percent growth rate marked the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year negative growth for the metro area...

Both the public and private sectors in the four-county metro region lost jobs during the year. The public sector shed 1,200 jobs for a negative 1.4 percent growth rate, while the private sector lost 1,900 jobs for a negative 0.7 percent growth rate. It was the third consecutive month that the area’s private sector lost jobs...New Mexico’s negative 1.1 percent growth rate was the second-worst in the nation. Only West Virginia had a higher negative growth rate at 1.2 percent.

Now what was that about driver's licenses? It seems to have slipped our mind...

JON AND JOE

What's this? State Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela has had an epiphany?:

Large state capital outlays to build roads and bridges could be another big job creator, Barela said, asking for NAIOP’s lobbying support.

Hey, you're riding in a car now, Jon. But you lost us when you said we just have to accept that the Federal government jobs are going away and we have to replace them with private sector jobs. When they hear that lay down in Washington, Jon, they'll carve us up like the line cook at the Japanese Steakhouse. You have to stand in fight in DC town, unless you think replacing high-paying government jobs with hamburger flippers is economic development.

CAN JEFF HELP?

Back on the trail, this time up in Los Alamos we find Dem state House candidate Stephanie Garcia Richard throwing the long ball and bringing in Senator Jeff Bingaman to help get her across the finish line. He cut this TV spot for her.

We don't know if Richard will have the cash to put it on the air, but it reminds us that our insiders are saying her challenge of GOP State Rep. Jim Hall started with a burst of energy but ran into roadblocks along the way. The race, however, is said to still be in play.

CONFESSIONS OF A GAY REPUBLICAN

From the UNM Daily Lobo:

With the presidential election only days away, I find myself more and more distraught about whom to vote for. For me, the decision comes down to voting for what I believe is the right path for my country versus voting for equal rights for my community. I am a gay Republican....

I support almost all Republican values, and I do not trust President Obama as much as I believe in Mitt Romney. The only problem is that Obama supports who I am, and Romney does not. So now I have to make a decision. 

HEINRICH HISPANICS

There has not been an Hispanic New Mexico US Senator since Joe Montoya left the building at the end of '76, but if Martin Heinrich wins next Tuesday it will be in large part due to Hispanic support. He is trouncing Republican Heather Wilson 67% to 34% among Hispanic in the latest Journal poll. That means he is positioned to cross the 70% threshold with them. Not bad for a Gringo from Missouri (born in Nevada).

Heinrich's down-the-line support for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and immigration reform that is not punitive all play a role in getting to his impressive numbers. But severe damage to the Republican brand is also a reason. Many Hispanics are aghast at the hard-line the current crop of Republicans take toward the social safety net and immigration.

HAIL MARY HEATHER

Heather Wilson leads Dem Martin Heinrich by one point, the race is a "dead heat" and if you send her fifty bucks right now she's going to put this thing over the top. Really!

Hail Mary Heather came with all of that and more Monday, issuing a poll from Public Opinion Strategies that was in direct conflict with the Sunday ABQ Journal survey that shows her trailing Heinrich 50-43 with conservative independent Jon Barrie at 3%. In her poll she leads 44-43.

POS did not release the question it asked, raising suspicious about the survey. It is the first poll of any kind anywhere this year that has Wilson leading this race. (Polling memo here.)

We've had our differences with POS over the years--we find them hyper-partisan--but this time she and they have jumped the shark. And that means the Alligators are on the prowl. Here they come...

How gullible does the Heather Wilson campaign think New Mexicans are in this election? A new Public Opinion Strategies shows Wilson leading Heinrich 44 percent to 43 percent. This is not a poll. It is a desperate political ploy because Ms. Wilson is losing so bad. It makes her look competitive.

There are red flags about this suspicious survey. It was done by Public Opinion Strategies, which touts itself as  “the leading Republican polling firm.” The company was founded by four Republicans, including Neil Newhouse, who is Mitt Romney’s pollster and made the infamous statement that “we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers.”  The obvious bias of Public Opinion Strategies calls into question its survey.

And it's interesting that Nicole McCleskey is a partner of  Public Opinion Strategies and the wife of the Republican operative, Jay McCleskey, who runs the notorious "Reform New Mexico Now" PAC.

Yeah, that Gator broke some skin. This is it, folks...

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Hunting Sanchez

Deflecting Susana

The action is going manic as the time left in Campaign '12 turns from days to only hours. Lagging candidates are starting to swing for the fences and Domino's Pizza and four hours of sleep are the final days routine.

Some of the action will be down and dirty and pop up in the mail at the last minute, giving opponents no time to respond. But much of it will be in plain sight, and that leads us out to to the jam-packed campaign trail....

Forget president and congress--well, don't forget them--but don't look for any suspense there--the Dems have a lock on almost all of the federal races around here. No, the premier races are further down the ballot and further south of ABQ. Like in Valencia County. Like in the backyard of the State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez. He has a tortilla-sized target on his back that the R's are shooting at with multiple weapons.

Sanchez--ahead 48-46 over GOP foe Rep. David Chavez in the exclusive Oct. 23 Manzano Strategies poll conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan--is out with his highly anticipated response to the most sensational TV hit of the season--a spot produced by Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey. (The ad is not available on the web). It accuses Sanchez of not supporting life prison terms for those convicted of killing a child. Sound over the top? Sanchez also seems think so. Here's his ad and here's more about it:

The Sanchez retort ad does not get in the weeds with Jay, but places the powerful Senator on the sofa with Lynn, his wife of 42 years, and they calmly explain what they think is happening:

Sanchez: Recently you may have seen some pretty nasty TV ads about me.

Lynn: I've seen one too many

Sanchez: They are paid for by the big oil and gas companies out of Texas and Oklahoma

Lynn--They don't care about New Mexico. They have their own agenda

Sanchez--I'm Michael Sanchez and I'd ask you to find the facts and I'd really appreciate your vote on November 6

Lynn--Next time you see one of those ads do what we do (She is then shown aiming the remote at the TV screen which turns to snow)

A number of Democratic and GOP political consultants we asked said this spot strikes the right note--not harsh and negative--but a humanizing of Sanchez.

Should he have directly responded to the Baby Brianna hit from Governor Martinez that is in the Jay spot and paid for by the super PAC Reform NM Now?

No, said most of our analysts. They said the Sanchez TV ad asks voters to suspect the motives and funding of the Reform ad and that's enough. They see Sanchez as more likable by appearing with his wife and believe he is in a get-out-the-vote race that will attract 20,000 voters. If Dems are brought home by Sanchez's reassuring spot, he should take the win. (Sanchez did respond to the specific attack in the Brianna spot in this web posting.)

On the GOTV front, the Patriot Majority PAC--funded by out-of-state union money--is flooding the district with radio and canvassers, as are a number of in-state unions and other Dem interest groups. Chavez also has a ground game put together mainly by Reform NOW, but the Dems have the edge.

Senator Bingaman and Rep. Martin Heinrich will rally with Sanchez in Belen Tuesday. Folks, the Dems are going to use every trick in the book to take this one. You don't give up generations of party power without a an all-out fight. The elephant has kicked and the donkey is up and dancing.

DATELINE ROSWELL

And then there's Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings who also has a Guv-painted target on his back. But insides say Jennings' contest appears to be moving his way---although everyone is being very cautious in making any predictions. That scorching letter from former GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. in which he unloads on consultants McCleskey and outgoing State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair and endorses Jennings was run as a full page ad Sunday in the Roswell Daily Record.

Locals continue to say the Republican division over Jennings increases the longtime lawmaker's odds of hanging on for another four year term.

NUKING NUNEZ

Susana's not only firing at Dems and R's. The lone indy in the state House--Dona Ana Rep. Andy Nunez,--was shell-shocked when Jay and the gang put out a hit mailer on him that we reported to the state last week. And the shock waves are still reverberating. Newsman Steve Terrell has more on the Fourth Floor diss of Nunez and how not to make friends and influence people:

...Hardly anything in politics truly surprises me anymore. But last week’s news that a political action committee associated with  Gov. Martinez was going after Rep. Andy Nuñez, the independent  from Hatch, was not only surprising but eye-popping, even for a cynical old news dog. OK, Martinez is a Republican and there is a Republican candidate in  District 36, Mike Tellez. So it’s not that shocking that she would back  her own guy, even back him over a fairly conservative declined-to-state.  But Nuñez isn’t just any fairly conservative declined-to-state. He’s  probably is best known in other parts of the state as the sponsor of one  of Martinez’s pet bills--the one that would repeal the law that allows the state to issue driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.

Felipe Archuleta is the Dem candidate for the Nunez seat and maybe he takes it after Andy got nuked from both the Guv's political team as well as a super PAC supporting Dems.

Who will win? It's another big race in the battle for control of the state House that we'll be tracking for you Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and streamed live at KANW.com

BLOWING IT UP

The Guv has got to know she is burning a lot of her political capital with her efforts to take out all these legislators. We sure see it in the email. Here's a sample from a Dem Gator::

...If she doesn't win some of these seats (which seems entirely possible), what does it mean for advancement of public policy at a time when we've became the poorest state in the nation and are hobbling through the recovery?

She not only made new enemies during this campaign, but completely took a flame thrower to those who were already against her.  This is her nuclear strategy--just blow the whole place up and hope she can make something out of the debris. She had a chance to work with the Legislature and she blew it, now we all have to suffer.

The other unintended consequence of her actions has been to awaken a bunch of Democrats and make them run better, more sophisticated races. Also, she inspired the growth of new Democratic outside interest group money. She could have snuck up and taken out State Rep. Ray Begaye, State Senator Mary Jane Garcia or Senator Jennings but she has no subtlety. She overplayed her hand and again went for the nuclear option. Even if she picks up something, was it worth it?

Also, by absolutely screwing Rep. Andy Nunez, she sent a clear message to everyone in Santa Fe that she can never be trusted and that she's loyal to no one.  That also will contribute to the demise of her legislative agenda.

You don't have to be a Dem to know that his Governor has taken a huge roll of the dice and  her crapping out at Legislative Session '13 seems as predictable as a January snow in Chama.

NOTHING PERSONAL?

Asked about the unprecedented attacks on legislative Dems by her top political adviser and the super PAC he runs, Martinez tried out this explanation:

This isn't personal. This is clearly about policy.

But it clearly is personal, made more so by hundreds of thousands of dollars of Super PAC vitriol that has changed the very fabric of these legislative races and will make the political atmosphere in Santa Fe so toxic that it could be deemed a Superfund site.

OUT OF THE WOODS

Sen. Pat Woods

It was a GOP state Senate primary over in Clovis in June where we first learned that Governor Martinez was intent on taking out Republicans as well as Democrats in an effort to advance her legislative agenda. McCleskey's super PAC--not officially linked with her--threw the proverbial kitchen sink at Republican rancher Pat Woods, but in a scene that Jennings and Sanchez would love to emulate, here's Senator Pat taking the oath.

 Woods has a dead serious look on his face as he gets sworn in at the Curry County Courthouse by District Judge Ted Hartley with Woods' mother holding the bible.

That serious look is warranted after what Pat went through to get where he is today. The Governor and her political action committee spent thousands trying to keep him from the Senate by backing Angie Spears in what will long be remembered as one of the most strife-filled GOP state Senate contests ever.

The battle was for the seat held by GOP Senator Clint Harden. Harden recently resigned early after we blogged that he was going into the lobbying business. Governor Martinez then appointed Woods to fill the rest of Harden's term which runs until the end of the year. Woods faces no Dem opposition next week and will serve a four year term beginning in January.

The Guv must have paused for a moment when she signed the documents appointing Woods and wondered just how firm he will stand with her after that bloody primary. Woods says he will indeed stand with her in working for the repeal of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. But it remains to be seen how this independent minded rancher who beat the Guv's powerful political machine will play the game.

INTERMISSION


Hey, I know this thing is long. If you're tired, you have our permission to visit another web site and come back to us later and finish....but you are going to want to finish...

TOP OF THE TICKET

The top of the ticket is the middle of the blog today because of the non-suspense over those races. Look at that ABQ Journal poll from Sunday. You have Obama at 50%, Romney at 41% and Gary Johnson at 5%. Still, that doesn't mean the Obama machine that rolled over the state four years ago when Barack came with a 57% finish has been put in a storage locker. No, they have field offices around the state and that could help some of the Dem legislative candidates...

As for former Guv Gary--this year's Libertarian Party presidential nominee--nice call by our Alligators. They said if Johnson did heavy media in the state, he could challenge the 10% mark. If not, they said he will finish at 5% or lower. There was no Gary TV on the broadcast stations--so there will be no double-digit Gary.

LAST DITCH EFFORT

For Heather Wilson the days have boiled down to a precious few. She has seemingly tried everything to dislodge front runner Martin Heinrich in the US Senate race. Now in the final hours she is making one last ditch effort to get the New Mexican public to like her.

In this TV ad Heather's son and daughter reveal she is a musician of sorts and clips of Wilson playing the banjo are highlighted. Her kids also say that Heather likes to unicycle--or at least she did in the 1969 home move clip that is also in the ad.

But Wilson's unfavorables are still near the 50% mark. She has driven Heinrich's higher with negative ads, but not enough. This ad that takes a stab at warming up the chilly Wilson persona is not going to change that. Not in the ninth inning.

One of the Alligators got a chuckle over Heather's banjo playing and unicycle riding TV ad:

Joe, I would be more impressed with Heather Wilson if  she could ride a unicycle and play a banjo at the same time.  Maybe her next TV ad will depict such a feat!  Then she will have sealed the independent vote of banjo players  and unicycle riders.  See this video.

And we wonder if in that TV ad Heather is plucking out that old banjo favorite, "Oh, Susana, don't you cry for me..."

Don't worry, Heather. She isn't.

ONE FOR WILSON

It's not all one big blues tune for banjo picking Heather. Her old reliables at the ABQ Journal came through Sunday with yet another endorsement of her: 

...National security and military experience give her the edge at a time when New Mexico’s national laboratories and military bases--and the thousands of jobs that go with them--need a strong, committed defender in the Senate.

Dem Heinrich wasn't expecting to get the nod from the paper, but neither is he relaxing in the final week. His TV schedule includes a mix of positive and negative. His Heather hit scores her--for among other things--voting for the Wall St. bailout.

THE FAMILY ANGLE

That the Heather banjo ad features Wilson's daughter Caitlin got our attention. Back in June of 2008 when Wilson held a news conference to announce she would be endorsing Steve Pearce we blogged that Wilson's daughter was at her side and broke down and cried over her mother's loss. We recorded it as part of the human toll the life of politics can take.

It was one of the few times that we heard a reaction from the Wilson camp which asked us to take down the reference to Caitlin crying, saying it was a private moment. We disagreed and said the event was news and was going to be reported by other sources as well. Still, they insisted and we relented. Sure enough, soon after the AP came with a story referencing Caitlin's tears.

The point being that if politicians are going to put their children in the middle of political events and paid TV ads (as both Wilson and Heinrich have done this campaign) and use them to persuade the voting public, it is unrealistic for them to expect them not to be included in news coverage.

THE POLLING 

Heather may have gotten the Journal endorsement but their polling continues to be a real downer for her. The final and third poll by the estimable Brian Sanderoff shows Heinrich hitting the 50% mark, with Heather stuck at 42%. Conservative independent candidate Jon Barrie gets 3%. The Dem-oriented pollster PPP said Friday they have Heinrich at 52% to Wilson's 44%. They did not measure Barrie who has no TV up.

MICHELLE'S VASE

Janice & Michelle

For Michelle Lujan Grisham this campaign has been about not dropping the valuable vase she is holding in her hands. So far, so good. And how can you complain when the conservative editorial pages of the ABQ Journal throw in the towel on Republican Janice Arnold-Jones and toss you an endorsement bouquet to put in that vase you're holding:

“She can be expected to sustain that type of energy and fairness in Washington and should be elected to represent New Mexico in U.S. House District 1.."

Now the editorial did hint that the ABQ congressional district is somehow still a swing district and that the R's could be back in '14 to oust Michelle. Fat chance.

Michelle's district is looking as blue as mid-day New Mexican sky. The R's could have helped Janice and made a play to get it close this year, but come Election Night it looks like Michelle may lead the Dem ticket in Bernalillo County. And that's a district with about as much movement as a rusted carousel.

THE NEW LATINO

The AP looks at the emergence of a new class of Hispanic politician and includes ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Michelle Lujan Grisham in that category:

Lujan Grisham is part of the next generation of college-educated,  middle-class Latino congressional candidates. Unlike many of their early  predecessors, the new Latino candidates don't come from union or labor  backgrounds, and some are seeking seats outside of predominantly  Hispanic districts.
 
They are the beneficiaries of civil rights  gains, demographic changes and new congressional seats created by recent  redistricting. They include a former astronaut, a medical doctor with  three degrees from Harvard, college professors, attorneys and children  of immigrants and civil rights pioneers.
Together they have the potential to make history as the largest class of Latinos ever to enter Congress..

Lujan Grisham is the daughter of a Hispanic dentist and an Anglo mother. She is also a distant relative of former ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan who held the ABQ US House seat from 1968-88.

ON THE TRAIL

Rep. Lujan, Blogger, Chairman Gonzales

Here's some broad smiles as we catch up on the campaign trail with northern Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan and New Mexico Democratic Party Chairman Javier Gonzales.

Ben Ray--seeking a third two year term in the US House--was given reason to smile over the weekend. After endorsing his Republican opponent in the Tea Party year of 2010, the ABQ Journal reversed itself and this year gave him their endorsement.

Lujan is running against Tucumcari are rancher Jefferson Byrd.

Chairman Gonzales is finishing up his final months as chairman. The former Santa Fe county commissioner will not seek re-election to the post next year, but he hopes to finish on a high note with victories here by Obama, Martin Heinrich and Michelle Lujan Grisham--in addition to Ben Ray. 

Rep. Lujan told me that he does not believe that the disaster of "sequestration" which would drop the nation off the "fiscal cliff" is going to become a reality. He believes a deal will be made that will avoid the loss of as many as 20,000 federal jobs here, including more losses at the already hard hit Los Alamos National Labs. However, no one in Washington really knows for sure what will happen.

It has been frustrating for Lujan since the Republicans took the majority in the US House following the 2010 balloting, and that does not appear as though it will change this election cycle.

The state's five member congressional delegation lacks any members on the powerful appropriations committees in either the House or Senate, despite our dependence on billions in federal funding. Maybe Lujan gets there if he keeps winning easy re-election bids like this year's. He reports over $400,000 cash in his campaign account, but has not bothered to put any TV on the air.

(Our pic was snapped at a celebration of the state's 100th year of statehood held by Las Amigas de Nuevo Mexico. It was established in 1983 by former Secretary of State Clara Padilla Andrews to promote the state of New Mexico.)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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