An aggressive campaign by opponents of a proposed ban of late term abortions in ABQ continues to pay off, according to our final exclusive, scientific poll of the Tuesday special election.

We asked 494 likely voters via automated phone calls Thursday night: "Do you support or oppose the ABQ special ballot measure to ban most abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy?"

By a margin of 53% to 41%, respondents said they were against the proposal. 6% were undecided.

The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.4%.

A special election was called when abortion foes gathered some 27,000 petition signatures to force it on the ballot.

In our first survey of the special election conducted November 6, likely voters polled were against the abortion ban 56% and 37% were for it. Undecided was at 6%.

Veteran pollster Bruce Donisthorpe of BWD Global consulting, who has conducted highly accurate surveys for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan since 2008, had this analysis:

The tide is not benefitting the pro life movement as we near Election Day. Those in favor of the ban are going to have to go outside the pool of regular, likely voters, to win this race and they don't have a lot of time. The opponents of the proposal continue to identify and deliver voters against the measure, particularly in the Democrat and independent columns.

Democrats oppose the measure by 74% to 19%, Republicans supported it 67% to 29% and independents opposed the proposal by 54% to 40%. 

Those numbers are similar to our first survey except for Republicans where it appears amendment supporters have done effective targeting and brought up their GOP support from our last survey.

Strong opposition to the proposal continues to come from female voters. 65% oppose. The abortion ban does better with men, but it is still losing with them by 55% to 41%.

The abortion ban is doing best on the Westside where it leads 49% to 47%. It is doing worst in the SE and Mid NE Heights where it trails 68% against to 25% for.

The problem for those in favor of the measure is that many early votes have been cast and they have been losing those. Because of that, on Tuesday--the actual Election Day--supporters of the measure will have to do much better than 50% among those voting that day in order to win. That may be a tall order.

Complete crosstabs for the survey are posted here.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The immense money gap between early Dem Guv front runner Gary King and Governor Martinez has King's rivals for the '14 nomination saying that the attorney general just doesn't have the muscle to take out Martinez and the party needs to look to one of them. They are using evidence like this to make their case:

Gary King's three contribution and expenditure reports show that he has raised to date about $429,000 in cash and in-kind contributions. That includes a $45,500 loan King made to his own campaign. Out of this, King has spent $161,000 on his fundraiser--LA Harris and Associates. If you subtract out the $45,500 he loaned himself, that means of the $380,717 in cash he actually raised, over 42% has gone to his fundraiser. 

Since taking office in 2011, Martinez has collected about $3.8 million in cash and in-kind contributions, compared to the $429,000 (including the $45,000 personal loan) that King has collected. King announced his candidacy in July 2012.

ABQ state Sen. Linda Lopez is also taking hits for lackluster fund-raising. She reported last month raising only $25,000 since announcing her bid in April.

One thing King has going for him is considerable personal wealth as does Santa Fe Democrat Alan Webber. State Sen. Howie Morales recently announced his bid. His first finance announcement will be closely watched to see if he can make a move. Ditto for Lawrence Rael who is soon to enter the race.

The next fund-raising reports are not due until April 7. That is past the March pre-primary convention where delegates will vote on which Guv andidates should be placed on the June primary ballot, but candidates will be pressured to show the money before then.

MORE THE MERRIER?

Chaves County Dem Chairman Fred Moran argued here Tuesday that Dem Guv candidates having trouble raising cash should get out of the race by Dec. 31 and let the strong go on. Another Dem reader disagrees:

The more the merrier. Here's why: Martinez will win the governor's race if her numbers are not driven down. When five candidates for the Democratic nomination spend their time constantly going after her conduct in office instead of just one or two, they stand a much better chance of educating the public. 

The Democratic base is sick and tired of what they see as a spineless, self-defeating party, and will back the candidates who best demonstrate a willingness to take on Martinez. Sure money matters. But, with contribution caps in place, the real money is going to go to the independent expenditure groups, which Martinez recognized early on by meeting with the Koch Brothers in Bernalillo. 

The only way the big money independent groups on the Democratic side will come into this race is if they see aggressive campaigning against Martinez during the primary. A word of caution to those running: the base does not want to see Democrats attacking Democrats. Why do Martinez's job for her? Sell your strengths and your willingness to go toe-to-toe with the Martinez machine.

SUSANA AND JAN

Gov. Martinez continues her extensive out of state travels and the Alligators have a question about an upcoming event. Will Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer show up when Susana appears next Tuesday at a fund-raiser for the Arizona GOP?

Martinez was a no-show for a NM GOP fund-raiser held in September that featured Brewer as the special guest. That fund-raiser was hosted by a number of GOP heavyweights who have clashed with Martinez, including ABQ businessman Tom Tinnin and former party chairman Harvey Yates, Jr.

STATE OF THE CITY

UNM President Robert Frank was among those attending ABQ Mayor Berry's annual state of the city address at the ABQ Convention Center Wednesday. He posted this pic of the event.

Berry, 51, will be giving four more state of the city speeches as a result of his re-election last month. His new term starts December 1 when he will be inaugurated and give another speech.

The full state of the city speech can be seen and  read here.

In his speech, Berry reiterated his trademark optimism about the city economy, pointing out that recent tax collections reflecting economic activity are headed up:

Gross receipt revenues have increased each month over the past 10 months, and so far, our current budget year showed growth of 3.1 percent when compared to the same period last year.

But even as he spoke to a noon audience that included Gov. Martinez, more news was moving across the wires demonstrating how sticky this recession is for our area:

New Mexico’s community banks had the worst loan growth rate through the second quarter of banks in the eight-state Rocky Mountain region, according to a report by the Hovde Group consulting firm. The state’s median loan growth rate was 0.6 percent through the first six months of the year, below the regional median of 3.9 percent. Twenty of New Mexico’s 46 locally chartered banks had negative loan growth through the second quarter.

HOW WE FLIPPED

We recently hit upon the topic of how New Mexico flipped from a GOP dominated state in the early 1930's to a Dem dominated one. Reader Michael Lamb dug further into the matter and came with this from NMSU:

"As the jobless population grew, (Republican) President Hoover ('29-'33) resisted calls to combat unemployment by financing public service jobs. He encouraged the creation of such jobs, but said it was up to state and local governments to pay for them. He also believed that relieving the suffering of the unemployed was solely up to local governments and private charities."

"During the Great Depression, nearly 10,000 Hispanic villagers from the northern part of the state migrated to work in beet and potato fields, mines and smelters, and the sheep and railroad camps of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and Montana. As these jobs disappeared, the workers came home to worse conditions. Communities, counties and eventually the state itself ran out of money. New Mexico became insolvent in 1933 and turned to the federal government for help." 

Thanks for that, Michael. I don't know much about the NM insolvency of '33, but understand it gets some coverage in William Keleher's "Memoirs: Episodes in New Mexico History-1892-1969.

THE BOTTOM LINES

On Friday, November 15th, at 9 p.m. at Art Bar by Catalyst Club (119 Gold St. SW) nationally recognized social satirist and comedian Jamie Kilstein will bring his brand of politically irreverent comedy to Albuquerque. Kilstein will headline a fundraiser for the Albuquerque Poet Laureate Program...

In a first draft Tuesday, we blogged that those opposing the late term ban on abortion spent $300,000 on TV ads. The correct figure is around $110,000.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Amy Orlando

Still no word on a GOP candidate for attorney general in '14 but several scenarios are floating that will soon be resolved by a decision.

The latest one is that Amy Orlando, who succeeded Gov. Martinez as Dona Ana County district attorney, gets in the race.

The thinking being that two Hispanic females atop the GOP ticket in '14 would be a crowd pleaser. Orlando, a BFF of Susana, is now working for state government as the associate deputy director for Juvenile Justice Services of Southern New Mexico.

But what about Clovis area District Attorney Matt Chandler? He took a beating from Gary King four years ago when he was the GOP AG nominee. He is still high on the list, but lingering in the  background is the continued scuttlebutt that Chandler could end up on the Fourth Floor as chief of staff. That would mean replacing current chief Keith Gardner who would presumably be given a soft landing.

An attorney as chief of staff also flows with the theory that it's not a bad idea having a lawyer at the helm during a Guv's second term. That's when legal woes seem to mount.

The Dem picture is much less cloudy. State Auditor Hector Balderas is the lone Dem contender for AG and has raised substantial money. He is well on his way to the nomination.

For Hector, Orlando could be more of a problem than Chandler. She could cut across party lines easier than Chandler who hails from the east side and she has that tie-in with Susana. If the Guv remains popular, it could rub off easier on Amy than Matt.

Only one woman has been attorney general in the state's 100 year history--Democrat Patricia Madrid.

The Dems have history behind them. No Republican has been elected NM attorney general since Hal Stratton did the trick back in '86.

ELECTION SPECIAL

Those supporting the proposal to ban late term abortions in ABQ are finally getting some air support. They are up with a $50,000 TV buy urging a "For" vote in the Nov. 19 election. It is financed by a national pro-life group.

National pro-choice groups fighting passage of the abortion restriction and urging an "against" vote have been on the air for several weeks with a buy of well over $100,000.

The TV ads against the abortion measure were a key reason the measure was failing in an exclusive poll conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on Nov 6, says pollster Bruce Donisthorpe. The survey showed the proposal to ban late term abortions failing 56% to 37%.

PRIEM PRIMED

Richard Priem

We told you Friday about the plans of retired Army Lt. Colonel and businessman Richard Priem to toss his hat into the race for the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat. He made it official this week, saying:

We don’t have time for the endless bickering that occurs today. Our citizens want action, not politics. We’re in the new fiscal year and our Federal government doesn’t have a budget. . . .and our nation’s debt limit continues to soar. Young Americans are graduating from college with huge debts. Many don’t have prospects for good jobs. The government is engaging in unheralded spy operations against honest, law-abiding U.S. citizens. We can’t afford to continue an agenda of paralysis and inaction.

Former ABQ GOP City Councilor Mike McEntee is also in the race as is Mike Frese of Corrales.

The ABQ seat is held by freshman Dem US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham who will be seeking a second term next year. She is unopposed for the Dem nomination.

OUT BY DEC. 31

Fred Moran, chairman of the Chaves County Dems, says the '14 Dem candidates for Governor need to put up or shut up. He says any hopeful who hasn't shown the right stuff by the end of the year should get out so the party can begin to choose among the strongest contenders:

We Dems do ourselves a huge disservice simply by virtue of the process in which we choose our candidates. Our guys spend money and waste valuable time getting through the March preprimary convention, only to spend more and bigger money to try to knock out their opponents in the June primary, without dividing the party.

After all of this, the victorious candidate, has only 5 months from the primary to rally the part and mend fences  Five months, in my opinion is too short a time to take it to Gov. Martinez.

We know that it is going to take a substantial war chest to defeat an incumbent Governor. Candidates, in the party's best interest, should be realistic and put egos aside. If you haven't raised enough cash to compete by Dec 31, 2013, then concede and throw your support to the candidate that has a realistic chance of victory. And maybe consider running for the lieutenant governor position. 

There are four contenders for the '14 Dem Guv nod with that field expected to grow to five.

#2 Chase

Speaking of light guv, longtime Dem activist Peter Zollinger has been the sole announced Dem candidate, but he is now joined by Marie Julienne, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of New Mexico. Her bio says:

Her research interests include the critical examination of public education policies that impact. . . underrepresented groups. Topics concerning tribal education and technology are also of special interest. A graduate of the Emerge 2013 class, Marie (has) strong ties to the Native American community. She lives in Albuquerque...

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

There will be another battle in the January legislative session over a measure that supporters say would attack the state's last in the nation ranking in child well-being but opponents argue would raid the state's permanent savings.

The intensity of that battle can be seen on this billboard on I-25 near Bernalillo. It puts the heat on Dem State Senator John Sapien, chairman of the Senate Education Committee, who has joined with Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith in opposing a constitutional amendment that would allow funds from the state's Permanent Fund to be invested in early childhood programs. That fund now totals well over $16 billion.

Smith, a Deming Democrat,  who has blocked his committee from voting on the amendment, has also been targeted by backers of the measure with mailers and radio spots going into his district, The ad was paid for by the NM Center for Civic Policy a nonprofit progressive advocacy group that does not have to disclose its donors.

The constitutional amendment requires approval of both the House and Senate, but not the Governor. If it passed both, it would be placed before New Mexico voters in November.

The amendment is seen as picking up some momentum since the Annie E Casey Foundation found that the state is dead last in the nation in child well-being.

Conservative foes of the amendment are also turning up the heat. A group called the NM Business Coalition comes with this:

The relentless drive. . . to raid the state permanent fund, under the guise of improving education, can get confusing. That’s why the NMBC is pleased to announce that Mark Meckler will attempt to answer the question, “Why do people who want to raid the Permanent Fund dislike children so much?”

We know Mr. Meckler is a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots, but we did not know he possessed psychoanalytic abilities. Imagine, thousands of New Mexicans support this amendment, but in reality they secretly despise the little ones! Well, like they told us a long time ago--an "expert" is anyone who isn't from New Mexico.

WATER WOES

The state's water woes appear to be in line for some serious discussion at the '14 legislative session

Gov. Martinez may add water issues to the agenda. . . Having water issues added to the call is welcomed by state Sen. Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, who has criticized past sessions for not passing serious legislation to resolve water issues as the prolonged drought has worsened.
Now the stakes are serious for farmers, users of Rio Grande water north of Elephant Butte Reservoir and the state’s finances, Cervantes said, because Texas is suing New Mexico in the U.S. Supreme Court because of pumping to make up for the meager river flow.

POWER PLAY

Why all the brouhaha over running an electricity transmission line through a portion of the White Sands Missile Range?

Near hysteria has broken out over the possibility, with some of the more shrill critics arguing that the state could even lose White Sands if the line were to go in.

It all smacks of a tempest in a teapot. The line--which would transport electricity to Southwestern markets--has provoked debate over whether it endangers national security, but there is far from any consensus.

Still, White Sands would prefer to have it their way and have the current transmission route rejected, even though at their insistence the route has already been moved several times because of concerns that it might interfere with missile testing.

The line is being proposed by SunZia and would transport electricity generated from wind and solar energy in eastern New Mexico. Estimates vary on how many jobs it would create, but it would be a step toward diversifying the state's economy. Which brings us to our good friends at White Sands...

New Mexico has been more than a good neighbor to White Sands and the feds have reciprocated. But in this new era, federal defense spending is destined to be reduced, forcing New Mexico to look to other ways to boost our economy and provide the jobs of the future.

Can't the US Army and White Sands give us a helping hand in return for the decades of unquestioned support we have given them and will give them in the future?

Senator Heinrich, an engineer who served on the House Armed Services Committee, is among those who say the line poses no threat to the range and is seeking a compromise.

White Sands and New Mexico have always worked together to the benefit of the state and nation. Are we going to let a power line disrupt that valuable connection?

SOS BATTLE

If the early back and forth is any sign we are going to have a very spirited battle next year for secretary of state. Supporters of incumbent GOP SOS Dianna Duran and those of Dem contender Maggie Toulouse Oliver continue to trade bards on the blog. Here's Kimothy Sparks responding to a Friday comment by a Toulouse Oliver backer:

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Brooks, Skandera & Martinez

The same week that Twitter unveiled its initial public offering on the US stock market, ABQ Public Schools Superintendent Winston Brooks saw himself offered up to the public for a loud round of catcalls and derision.

Twitter's stock may have soared on its opening day, but Brooks was no fan. He quietly closed his Twitter account and began serving a three day suspension imposed by the APS school board for untoward comments he posted on the site.

You would think after reams of news copy (too much of it?) there isn't much left to say. But there is.

For example, there's this question: what was the full context of Brooks flying off the handle and tweeting of the public education secretary, "moo, moo, oink oink?"

Well, no one around here has a PhD in psychology but we do have the best political analysts this side of the Sandias. One of them explains that Brooks did not just wake up one morning and decide today is the day I am going barnyard:

What Winston Brooks did was wrong, but we had to see it coming. Since the Red Apple awards in the spring of 2009 when she indicted him at a public event, Gov. Martinez has made it a mission to terrorize Brooks. 

Martinez's political machine has led a campaign, including assaulting him just recently in thousands of paid direct mail pieces. I don't think any school superintendent in the state has had this kind of long-term assault leveled against them. And for what? I'm sure there are other superintendents in state who don't bow to the Governor but do they receive this kind of treatment? But after years of beating him down, Brooks predictably broke down and erred in sending a tweet. 

Anyone who knows Brooks knows he is not some irate bully, he's rather mild-mannered and unassuming.  

Someone needs to stand up to Martinez and call this what it is--the politics of personal destruction. At some point, Martinez will go too far and someone will stand up to her bullying tactics. But this was her MO as a prosecutor. No matter how lowly, unassuming or pitiful the individual is who has slighted her, she'll drag them out in the public square and pummel the person for all to see.

It has been pointed out that in recent years Brooks has faced three sex discrimination lawsuits and also has communications issues apart from the Tweeting outburst. All his missteps can't be said to be prompted by the political attacks on him.

But it's negligent not to report that for perhaps the first time in our state's politics. a non elected official has been subjected to intense negative paid political advertising, financed by a dark money group with extremely close ties to Governor Martinez.

It's like a linebacker dragging a fan in the bleachers onto the field and telling him to suit up.

We know Brooks violated his boundaries and rightly paid the price. Now where are the boundaries for the bullies?

JOHN DENDAHL

There was rarely a dull moment when John Dendahl held forth as the chief Republican warrior of New Mexico politics. He used a bazooka even when a pistol would do the job.

Dendahl, who died Saturday in Colorado of leukemia, delivered nearly constant body blows to state Democrats with a twinkle in his eye and the zeal of a true believer.

The former NM GOP chairman and 2006 Republican gubernatorial nominee will be remembered for giving state Republicans more backbone and strengthening the party's numbers in the state legislature.

The Santa Fe native will also be remembered for getting the 2006 GOP nomination for Governor and then suffering the biggest loss in New Mexico gubernatorial history when Governor Richardson trounced him by garnering 68% of the vote.

Dendahl's political career actually peaked in 2000 when he and his team engineered the defeat of Democratic state House Speaker Raymond Sanchez. It was a major political coup that energized the party and the conservative movement.

Three years later Dendahl, who supported GOP Governor Gary Johnson's call for drug legalization, was ousted from his chairmanship by those who disagreed and elected ABQ State Senator Ramsay Gorham. It was the end of an eight year reign for Dendahl and the beginning of a deep and bitter split in the GOP that still reverberates today.

(Johnson and Dendahl advocated the legalization of marijuana and reducing penalties for the use of other drugs. Some media reports said Dendahl advocated "decriminalization.")

Dendahl, a business executive, loved to ski the slopes here, but in 2007 he retreated to the Denver area, embittered by the NM political scene and his humiliation at the hands of Richardson who he had taken to calling a "pandering liar." In a swan song op-ed piece the fiery Dendhal blamed the people of New Mexico for their woes--including the corruption he railed against.

But as death arrived for Dendahl he had to take heart that his beloved Republican Party controlled the state Senate with a coalition of conservative Democrats, that only a few seats separated the R's from the majority in the state House and that a Republican Governor was embarking on a re-election campaign.

In sport John Dendahl was a champion NCAA skier and a member of the 1960 Olympic Ski team. In his political life he came up short for the gold, but he got the silver and as a result his own chapter in the never ending book of La Politica.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author