The National Journal Friday came with an indepth and potentially damaging examination of Jay McCleskey, the man known as New Mexico's "Shadow Governor."

It is the first comprehensive mainstream media treatment of the controversial consultant and his relationship with Governor Martinez and her administration.

Thi is a must read for anyone involved in state politics. One tidbit: all those interviewed were Republicans. More on the 5,400 word article later...

Maybe some of the five Dem candidates for Governor should take out some insurance and also collect petition signatures for lieutenant governor. There are no big name candidates running for the #2 spot and it seems as wide open as the Dem nomination for governor. Two of the current Guv hopefuls--Linda Lopez and Lawrence Rael made previous attempts at the state's #2 post...

Heather Brewer, the state director for US Senator Martin Heinrich departs that position at the end of the year. His office says:

After five years of serving as Martin's district director in the House and state director in the Senate, Heather will be leaving at the end of 2013 to pursue other opportunities. Heather has been a stalwart leader and unwavering advocate for the people of New Mexico...

A reader sent this one in and it suprised us:

The health care industry is the main driver of the four-county Albuquerque metropolitan area’s private sector economy. In 2011, the sector employed 48,591 people and had an annual payroll of $2.1 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That $2.1 billion represented 20.5 percent of the area’s $10.4 billion annual private sector payroll. The area had 18,466 businesses with employees in 2011 and they employed 267,731 people.

DEM WORRIED

Michael Folsom, a ABQ Democratic Party precinct chair, writes:

As a Dem I am deeply concerned that the party seems absent from the fight on the Martinez-Skandera education disaster that is going down right now. I live with a 4th grade teacher and I have to tell you that Skandera's evaluation system is killing teachers and the Democratic Party is no where to be found. With all the work over the years that the Teachers Unions have done for and with the Democratic Party its is sickening to see that Democratic elected officials have largely abandoned them to their fates.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Conan O’Brien: “Members of the Tea Party gathered outside the White House to demand President Obama’s impeachment. The President said he appreciated their views, and he is setting up a new website where they can voice their opinion.”

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ABQ City Hall insiders say the most likely first impact of the Democrats taking back the city council will be the election of longtime west side Councilor Ken Sanchez as council president. The Dems now control the nine member council 5 to 4. Republican Dan Lewis is the current president. A new president will be elected to a one year term when the new council meets in December. Sanchez is a fiscal conservative who continues to fret over the jobs situation in the city....

Mayor Berry is disappointed that he no longer has a Republican council, but he shouldn't take it too hard. The council of the past four years was the one and only GOP controlled council in nearly a quarter century. With ABQ having 46% Dems and only 31% R's, it could be a very long time before we again see a GOP council...

Even though it was somewhat natural for the council to revert to the Dems, it was a badly needed win for NM Dem Chairman Sam Bregman.

Now that they have a majority, will the Dems get some backbone and stand up to the popualr GOP mayor or is it business as usual? One of the Alligators sums it up this way:

Can new City Councilor Diane Gibson motivate the Dems to stand up to Mayor Berry or will they be intimidated by the machine like Dems in the legislature? So far, they've had no spine. Dem Councilors Garduno and Benton so far haven't shown much. Sanchez is always a day late and a dollar short. New Councilor Pena is seen as a peacemaker. Is there a rabble rouser or a bomb thrower in the bunch? Doesn't look like it.

And outgoing GOP Councilor Janice Arnold-Jones is getting the long knives treatment now that she is headed to the exits courtesy of Diane Gibson. From Raton, reader Preciliano Martin emails:

Joe, Janice Arnold Jones has played her "Lady Sunlight" cards for all they were worth and lost each time. She tried to turn her famous political move of taking a web camera into state House committee meetings into higher political office and failed each time. First she tried for Governor, then the U.S. House and lastly the Albuquerque City Council. What next?

Maybe Janice goes to work for Mayor Berry. He seemed enthused about her run-off campaign when it began but seemed to back off as the election neared.

A REASON WHY

Why should New Mexicans keep the state House under the control of the Democrats? ABQ State Rep. Mimi Stewart--who sits on the Dem Legislative Campaign Committee--says the Tuesday abortion election highlights one reason:

. . . .Special interests targeted Albuquerque because Democratic majorities in the legislature had blocked Republican attempts to impose this extreme social agenda statewide – specifically by rejecting extreme legislation like HB179 (2011), which would have imposed an abortion ban every bit as strict as the proposed Albuquerque ordinance. . . As long as Democrats remain in the majority in our legislature, New Mexico women will remain safe from this extreme Republican social agenda and we in the DLCC will fight hard to keep it that way in 2014. . . 

RAEL RAILS AT SUSANA

Lawrence Rael took some shots at Governor Martinez as he became the fifth Democrat to formally enter the race for the 2014 Guv nomination. (We first reported his intentions here on Nov. 6). Here's how it played out in the AP report:

"We have a governor who looks at problems and immediately. . . tries to find who's to blame--not who needs to be at the table to potentially resolve the issues and work together. But that's what you get when you get a governor who is a prosecutor. New Mexico cannot afford another four years of prosecutorial leadership," he said.

Martinez campaign spokesman Danny Diaz said the governor has worked in a bipartisan manner to win approval in the Democratic-controlled Legislature of initiatives such as a package of business tax cuts earlier this year. "We are confident New Mexicans would rather have a results-oriented former prosecutor serving as their governor rather than a partisan like Lawrence Rael
...
Rael's complete announcement speech is here.

ROBERT ARAGON IN

We received word from one of our Senior Alligators that ABQ attorney Robert Aragon will soon announce his candidacy for the 2014 GOP US Senate nomination. Aragon signaled a possible candidacy months ago, but nothing much has been heard--until now. The former Democratic state legislator has close ties to the Martinez administration. Southern NM assistant district attorney David Clements is already in the race. Former NM GOP chairman Allen Weh seems poised for a January entry, say GOP insiders. Each of them will be seeking the right to take on Dem US Senator Tom Udall next November. Udall is unopposed for the Dem nomination as he seeks a second, six year term.

BY THE NUMBERS

In the October mayoral election 70,500 registered voters cast ballots. That represents 19% of the 364,000 registered voters. However, the city clerk says a total of 71,091 cast ballots in the election which also featured bond issues and city council races. Not everyone voted in the mayoral race. So while turnout for the mayor's race was 19%, the grand total for the entire election goes to 20% of those registered.

In Tuesday's abortion election, 87,296 voters cast ballots. That is 24% of the registered voters.

In terms of the raw vote total, an increase in voters from 70,500 for mayor to 87,296 on abortion represents a 24% jump in voter participation.

The Tuesday abortion election not only surpassed the vote total for the 2013 mayoral race but also the 2009 mayoral contest when about 83,000 votes were cast.

The bottom line is that even with hot button issues it remains a challenge to get people to vote in city elections. Remember, 276,704 registered voters sat on their hands when it came to this week's election.

BALDERAS VS ORLANDO?

The speculation that former GOP Dona Ana County District Attorney Amy Orlando might run for attorney general and face a likely match-up with Democrat Hector Balderas got the political tongues wagging. But Balderas supporter Theresa Trujeque downplays the potential of the match-up:

ABQ voters decisively defeated a proposed ban on late term abortions Tuesday and flipped control of the city council to the Democrats, reaffirming the city's blue streak as we begin the 2014 election cycle.

Progressives banded together--from in state and out of state--to overpower the anti-abortion forces by a 55% to 45% margin on the proposal to ban late term abortions.

The city clerk said 87,296 voters came out for the election, much more than the 70,500 who voted in the low-key October mayoral race. (Complete election results here.)

Republican Janice Arnold-Jones, appointed by GOP Mayor Berry to fill a vacancy in ABQ city council District 7, was narrowly defeated by Democrat Diane Gibson--52% to 48%--giving Dems a 5 to 4 council majority.

The two Dem wins had analyst Harry Pavlides coming with this analysis:

Democrats win when they act like Democrats, but when they go to the middle of the road they don't win much of anything. The Democratic legislative leadership needs to take more hard core Democratic stances on such issues as early childhood education and environmental issues.

They can't give the Governor everything she wants.  If they do that, they are no different than she is. Again, this election is a perfect example of  what happens when Democrats act like Democrats--they win elections.

Further context and analysis came from former ABQ GOP City Councilor Greg Payne, now an independent and a longtime campaign consultant:

The special election had good news and bad news for both sides. The good news for the GOP is that they almost held on to a seat in a heavily Democratic district. The bad news is, Janice Arnold-Jones didn't hold on because the GOP Machine wouldn't back someone outside of their clique. That rift within the GOP is still very much alive and well.

For Democrats, the good news is they won control of the City Council and successfully fought off the abortion ban. The bad news is, the Gibson vote total was anemic and control of the council won't mean much if Democrats continue their propensity to go along and get along with the Republican administration.

Perhaps the best news overall for Democrats--and specifically progressive Democratic women--is they proved they can still pack a punch. When they stand up and fight for their ideals and principles, rather than just paying lip service to them. They actually can take on the Republican machine and win. That's something the Democratic good 'ol boys might want to wake up and take notice of.

And one of the Alligators added these insights:

You have to hand it to the pro choice community. After some initial uncertainty, They organized well and got it together. My door got knocked on three times, I received three pieces of mail, two hand written cards and a door knocker. Their TV ad was solid.

Dems really consolidated behind this vote and the Gibson vote. They smacked conservatives in the mouth. Had the conservatives won the council race and the abortion vote it could have really been a motivating factor for their voters in 2014. The question for Democratic Party Chairman Sam Bregman and the Democratic intelligentsia should be, how can we build off of this?

LEADING THE PACK

Bruce Donisthorpe

Congratulations to our pollster Bruce Donisthorpe of BWD Global who had the outcome of this election nailed.

His final poll for NM Politics with Joe Monahan showed the abortion ban being defeated with 53% of voters opposed. It went down by 55% to 45%.

Bruce has been polling for us since 2008 and has never missed. But this was a very tricky election to poll, as noted by other pollsters and analysts.

Besides the highly accurate pre-election polling, Bruce and I were the first ABQ media to call the outcome of the abortion election, doing so on Twitter moments after the early vote was released. Other media made their calls hours later. It wasn't hard to do when you had as much polling data as we did.

Leading the pack, helping to shape the agenda and setting the standard for New Mexico political coverage. That's our mission and commitment to you--our loyal readers.

NEXT UP

Now that the abortion battle is settled the social issues parade can move back to the gay marriage question. If the New Mexico Supreme Court in a ruling expected soon upholds the right of same-sex couples to marry, that  should end the debate. But maybe not.

Late term abortion ban fails in ABQ tonight.

It's Election Day in Albuquerque and there's going to be at least one surprise when the polls close at 7 tonight: How many people will have voted?

 About 50,000 early and absentee votes have been cast in this special election over banning late term abortions. When ABQ went to the polls in October to elect a mayor, the total vote was only 70,500. We seem certain to pass that today, but by how much?

If we followed the pattern of the ABQ mayor race, we would be headed for a turnout of over 100,000. That's because the votes cast on Election Day were 53% percent of all votes cast. Early and absentee voting comprised 47%.

But several analysts we spoke with think today's Election Day vote will falter some because of the intense efforts by both sides to get their vote out early.

There are 364,000 registered voters in the city. For the mayoral and city council election, turnout was about 19.4% of the registered. If we get 85,000 voting in this special election today, that would be about 23.5% of the registered and would represent an increase in turnout from the mayor's race of about 21%.

Here are the voting locations for today's election. Polls open at 7 a.m.

ELECTION DAY 

The final scientific poll conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on Nov. 14 showed the proposed ban on late term abortions being defeated 53% to 41%.

You can follow official Election Night results here. The polls close at 7 p.m.

We will provide analysis and insight on the blog tonight. We will also report via our Twitter and Facebook accounts. Links to them can be found at the conclusion of today's blog. Pollster Bruce Donisthorpe will join us.

A COUNCIL FLIP?

Also on the ballot today is a run-off election for the District 7 ABQ city council seat. It features Democrat Diane Gibson and Republican Janice Arnold-Jones who Mayor Berry appointed to fill a vacancy in the district.

In the first round of balloting last month Arnold-Jones fell just shy of the necessary 50% mark and that forced today's run-off.

We had BWD Global's Bruce Donisthorpe poll the district on November 6. That survey found that Gibson was leading 47.7 percent to 42.3 percent over Arnold-Jones. 10.4 percent were undecided. The margin of error in the poll is 4.2 percent.

Turnout in District 7 is expected to be high because of the council run-off and the abortion measure.

The Mid Heights district is 46% Dem to 31% R so no one will be surprised if Gibson takes the seat back from the Republicans. If she does, control of the city council will flip to the Democrats who would hold a 5 to 4  majority. However, it takes six council votes to override a mayoral veto.

THE NEW MCCARTHYISM?

Speaker Martinez

The Democratic leadership in the state legislature is showing no signs of trying to weaken Governor Martinez going into 2014.

Even as economic stagnation continues, debate rages over the Guv's proposed education reforms and the brouhaha over the ABQ public schools superintendent, the leadership of the Dem-controlled state Senate and House have laid low.

Governor Martinez is taking advantage of the clear playing field given her by the legislative Dems (and the Dem Guv candidates) by making a myriad of announcements regarding jobs and education, attempting to shore up any deficiencies in those crucial categories that could be used against her when she stands for re-election next year.

NO FIGHT STRATEGY

Martinez is believed to be polling in the area of 60% voter approval. During her term she has been as high as 68%.

Dem House Speaker Kenny Martinez has signaled a "no fight" strategy with the Guv since taking the gavel. He appears to be playing for a "lonely landslide" by Martinez, similar to what happened with the re-election this month of New Jersey GOP Governor Chris Christie.

Christie won with 60% of the vote in the blue state, but the Jersey Democrats lost no seats in their legislature. Speaker Martinez needs that outcome here because Dems control the 70 member House by only a handful of votes--37 to 33.

Even if the R's picked up only one or two, the prospect of an R led coalition with conservative Dems to take over the House comes into play.

The state Senate is already controlled by a coalition of Republicans and conservative Democrats. A similar coalition in the House with a Republican governor on the Fourth Floor could mean a dramatic turn in the governing philosophy of the state.

If the lonely landslide is indeed the strategy of the Speaker it is not without risk, dissenting Dems point out.

NJ VS. NM

Dem special interest groups--teacher and labor unions among them--pumped an astounding $24 million into New Jersey legislative races in order to prevent Christie and the GOP from making legislative inroads.

In New Mexico, the dark money group NM Competes is already spending tens of thousands of dollars to promote the Governor's education agenda and it won't be long before it--or a similar group-- starts hammering individual Democratic legislators with well-financed hits.

State Dems have yet to answer NM Competes with their own dark money and if they don't or can't we could see the reverse of New Jersey with the Dems here badly outspent and challenged to prevent state House losses in a low-turnout election.

Dem consultants say the alternative to Speaker Martinez's strategy is more aggressive posturing against the Governor's polices to keep her popularity in check, rally the Democratic base and keep in check any coattails that she could sprout.

There are now five Dem candidates for Governor and they are starting to stir, but without paid media it is difficult for them to break through.

Democrats were motivated to fight in New Jersey in part because they did not want Christie using the legislature there to pass A program that he could tout in his expected 2016 presidential race.

Gov. Martinez also has national aspirations, but they are more modest than Christie's, raising the question of whether enough needed national money will materialize here to fight a serious effort by the R's to take control of the state House via a conservative coalition or outright control.

The 2014 session will be telling. Speaker Martinez will be under pressure from the many Dem guv candidates to relinquish his role as "compromiser in chief," abandon the lonely landslide hope and put serious heat on the Guv.

HOLDING BACK

Marty Esquivel

The Democratic strategy of holding back can be seen in the controversy surrounding ABQ Public Schools Superintendent Winston Brooks.

Senate and House leaders--including House Speaker Martinez and Senate President Pro Tem Mary KayPapen--issued a "bipartisan letter" praising ABQ school board president Marty Esquivel.

Esquivel--a Democrat--was praised by the pair for a three day suspension Brooks received for making disparaging remarks on his Twitter account about state Public Education Secretary Hanna Skandera.

However, campaign style attacks on Brooks from New Mexico Competes--which is run by close associates of the Governor--and that were mailed to thousands of households in the city--have drawn no criticism from either Speaker Martinez or other prominent legislative Dems.

Board President Esquivel did condemn the attacks at the time they came public, calling them:

"A sleazy, inflammatory political tactic, an attempt to turn a policy debate into political warfare by demonizing Mr. Brooks.”

WINTER WAITS

As we blog, Superintendent Brooks is still on the job but if he should leave interim APS superintendent Brad Winter could be expected to carry on until a replacement were named by the school board.

But could that replacement be Winter--a longtime ABQ Republican city councilor who along with his attorney wife Nann Winter have deep ties to Governor Martinez and Co.?

Even if Winter did not line up to take the job permanently, if Brooks were to  leave Winter could be in charge of APS through most of next year's election campaign.

For teachers doing battle with the administration over controversial teacher evaluation and testing, that could be like the sound of chalk squealing across the blackboard.

THE SCHOOL BEAT

We asked our Alligators to game out for our statewide audience more of the politics of the Brooks debacle and the teacher testing tempest.

They said that bashing school superintendents is something akin to a parental pastime. Many parents feel short-changed by the school system. The Guv pointing her finger at Brooks gives her a target of blame while she risks little backlash.

School teachers are more popular, but are still convenient targets for a troubled educational system that weighs heavily on parents. Most teacher votes are already Democratic, again giving Martinez somewhat of a free hand for her political arm.

Insider polling on how the Governor handles various issues shows her to be weakest in education and the environment. There's not much she can do about her environmental credentials, but she can shove education into the spotlight and set up targets for blame as she goes into the election cycle. And she is.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author