A reader reports in on former NM State Senate powerhouse Manny Aragon:

Manny Aragon has finally asked his girl friend, Barbara C de Baca to marry him.

Well, did she say  "yes?"

Other readers who have met with Aragon--who was released from Federal prison last December after serving five years on corruption charges--say he is dictating notes for a forthcoming book on his life and times.

That ought to be interesting. A number of you reading this will probably figure prominently in Manny's recollection of his years in politics. Stay tuned. . .

MARTINEZ AND NIXON

Not Richard Nixon. Gov. Nixon of Missouri. Reader Ken Rooney writes from DC:

I'm not one to be a defender of Martinez, but the attempt to compare Nixon's involvement in the fatal police shooting in

Ferguson with Martinez and the APD is a bridge too far. You commented that, "Martinez is somewhat of a national figure, so why shouldn't she be taking some heat like Nixon for the APD crisis being investigated by the Dept. of Justice?" Well, for one, Martinez isn't in charge of APD; that's a municipal entity. Gov. Nixon has drawn criticism in recent days because he called in state troopers and the state national guard to take control of security. I haven't seen any calls for Martinez to likewise activate the NM guard or have DPS supplant those at the top of APD. And let's be honest, that would require her to do something, like take responsibility. Love the blog.

Good point, Ken. Let's expand the conversation. Never has ABQ received such negative national publicity as it has over the violent crime here and the crisis in APD. The metro is the driver of the state economy. In that context should our statewide leadership be taking more of an active interest in how things are being handled here? Just askin'. . .

Okay, maybe right now it is actually the epic boom in the SE NM oilfields that is the state's chief economic driver. Get a load of this:

Next year, the Land Office expect another record-setting year, with conservative projections calling for $800 million (in oil and gas royalties)and up.

"Oil and gas production has been up 20 percent in the last two years, and we really don't have any signs of slowing in the next five," said State Land Commissioner Ray Powell, who is charged with administering public lands, including oil and gas leases. "So far it's been primarily focused in the Permian Basin (in the southeastern part of the state), but it's looking good for the Four Corners as well with the resources up there and the new technologies."

$800 million a year and we can't find an effective way to spend some of that money to get us out of the cellar in all these national social conditions rankings?

TO BURQUE OR NOT TO BURQUE (PART III)

Joe Monahan

We opened the can of worms this week on whether "Burque" is a common nickname. Reading the mail has been fun. Here's some more:

Joe, It has to be pronounced correctly--"boood-keh"   not "berkey."

This reader says it's neither Burque or Albuquerque:

Ask anybody born raised in ABQ, or born in NM and grew up in ABQ, especially males from Manzano, Sandia, and Highland high schools, during late 50'searly 60's, and they'll tell you it's "Querque".v"Burque" is lame, lame, lame! We guess it was those carpet bagging imports that came up with Burque in the 70s.

Paul  Roybal writes:

A few years back while vacationing in Maui I was at a T-shirt shop making idle conversation with a  young gentleman when he asked where I was from to which I proudly responded “Albuquerque, New Mexico.” His wife, overhearing our conversation from afar, responded: “Burque bro!”.

Joseph Padilla writes:

I disagree with the assessment of the nick name "Burque." I was born, raised, and live here. I am of the working class and travel around the state for work. To sum it up, I hear the city referred to as "Burque" more than Albuquerque. Either way, I like your blog.

And we like having you with us, Joseph.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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None of the 42 state senators is up for re-election this year but that doesn't mean there isn't politically jockeying going on that will play out in the days after the November election. Our legislative experts have the news for you.

They say with ABQ Dem State Senator Tim Keller favored to be elected state auditor and vacate his position as Senate Majority Whip is shaping up to be a battle to watch is shaping up.. As it stands now there are three main contenders to succeed Keller in the leadership post. They are freshman ABQ Senators Michael Padilla and Jacob Candelaria and Sen. John Sapien of Sandoval County. Padilla is pegged as the most progressive of the lot with Sapien the most conservative and Candelaria hewing most to the middle.

Meanwhile, our legislative watchers break the news here that State Sen. Phil Griego continues to weigh a challenge to Senate Majority Leader Micheal Sanchez. Whether Griego will pull the trigger or not remains to be seen, but over the summer he did fire a volley at Sanchez over the power the majority leader wields over bringing individual bills to the floor. Does that mean if Griego somehow manages to take the majority leader post away from Sanchez, he would relinquish some of his power?

By the way, with Senate powerhouses like John Arthur Smith supporting Sanchez we don't exactly see the leader shaking in his boots over the prospect of a Griego challenge.

Over on the state House side all 70 members are up for re-election in November. With the chamber closely divided between the D's and R's everyone is waiting to see who will be given control on Election Night. If the D's do hang on, the battle for majority leader will hold center stage as ABQ's Rick Miera decided not to seek re-election. That leaves House Minority Whip Moe Maestas trying to climb the ladder with Rep. Debbie Rodella also eying the plum post. Other possible majority leader wannabees are eyeing the action closely from the sidelines.

NOT 50TH

The economic news for NM has been so sour for so long that sometimes you take heart just to see that we don't rank 50th in something. Like in this survey by Business Insider. It says that we are 48th in the nation in terms of experiencing the economic recovery. Alaska will have to hold it's nose on this one. It ranks last in the USA.

But you don't have to wait long for us to get shoved back down to 50th:

Births per 1,000 teenagers (ages 15–19) range from a low of 13.8 in New Hampshire to a high of 47.5 in New Mexico, according to the report from the National Center for Health Statistics based on 2012 data, the most recent available for the states.

Meantime, neighboring Colorado had the biggest drop in teen births 15 to 19. How did they do it? Here you go Fourth Floor and Roundhouse:

State public health officials are crediting a sustained, focused effort to offer low-income women free or low-cost long acting reversible contraception, that is, intrauterine devices or implants.

And one more survey that keeps us at the bottom of the barrel. It's the rate of employment for people aged 25 to 54 since the onset of the Great Recesion:

The state with the largest decline is New Mexico, where 9.2 percent fewer people are employed today than they were in 2007. Vermont and Nebraska had the smallest decline, both less than 1 percent, and 19 other states had declines that were determined to be not statistically significant.

RIGHT WING RADIO CRASH

We broke the news here this week that right-wing radio talk giant KKOB-AM crashed through another downside barrier--scoring only a 4.9 percent share of the ABQ audience, according to Nielsen Audio. Long the #1 station, KKOB now ranks second. The decline has been several years in the making and conservative Republican reader Paul Donisthorpe comes with one good explanation of why it has happened:

As a Sirius subscriber with multiple units there is absolutely no reason to listed to what local radio--talk or otherwise--has to offer. For me Direct-TV has made this the same relating to local TV--including the local news. The only reason I subscribe to the "paper" version of the ABQ Journal is to get access to the online version which blessedly now includes access to the Washington Post. Many days the "paper" is thrown in the recycle bin still folded with the rubber band intact. Calculating my ratings are really simple: Dan Patrick Show from 7-10 (broadcast locally on AM 1600, but mostly listened to on Sirius), CNBC business programming from 11-4. End of story.

TO BURQUE OR NOT TO BURQUE

We weren't surprised to see the contrary email roll in after we said we really haven't heard much of anyone refer to Albuquerque as Burque" and we ran a billboard to that effect that is making the rounds. Among those begging to strongly disagree is ABQ attorney Mo Chavez:

All Democratic eyes are on turnout. It's not looking good, at least not yet. Pollster Brian Sanderoff sums up their problem this way:

In 2010 we had two heavily contested congressional races (Heinrich vs. Barela and Teague vs. Pearce) plus we had a hot, vacant governor’s race. We have none of them happening this time and we have the overall trend of dropping turnout due to voter cynicism. Add to that a 13% congressional approval rating and a president with low approval ratings at midterm in his 2nd term.

A back door way Dems could get a turnout bump is if Dem US Senator Tom Udall was seriously threatened by Republican Allen Weh and had to fight for increased Dem turnout, but Sanderoff's recent poll for the ABQ Journal shows Weh trailing Udall 53-35 so Dems will have to look for another way to close the enthusiasm gap. (Unless Weh starts throwing a ton of personal wealth at this thing).

Not that GOP enthusiasm is off the charts. That voter cynicism Sanderoff refers to is widespread. 2010 was a year of Tea Party rage that bumped conservative turnout. It could be hard for the R's to replicate that this time around. . .

It's one of the reasons you still see Gov. Martinez in her fund-raising letters talking about repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants and slamming Big Bad Bill Richardson. She's working to spike excitement and turnout among those red meat Republicans. . .

Meanwhile reader Bryan Wilcox wants the Journal to release the "crosstabs" for their polls which include all the valuable data of voting by age and gender and the like. He says:

It is time that the Journal to make these data available to the public. If they continue their current practice, how much trust can we have in their findings? Reporting margins of errors, sample sizes, etc. is a necessary practice, but they tell us very little if we are unable to check the numbers for ourselves. As the 2014 election cycle heats up, it’s time to put pressure on the Journal for accountability, accuracy, and transparency. Is this really too much to ask?

Wilcox, a native New Mexican, is a grad student in poly sci at the University of Washington and representative of the next generation that grew up with the Internet and are not used to secrets. The Journal has been releasing more of this info in recent cycles. Is it time to go all the way?

TOM'S TUNE

Back on Udall for a second, his latest TV ad keeps him on the very soft side as he pitches a sentimental story of how he brought running water to a Navajo family. And why not? There's simply no need to go negative on Weh.

One line in the new Udall ad caught our attention:

Protecting our bases and national labs might get Tom more attention, but getting a water for a family means just as much.

Both this blog and the New Mexican questioned how the senator's "protecting" played out, given the widespread layoffs in recent years at Los Alamos National Labs, but that's Tom's story and he's sticking to it. . .

And good luck to everyone in keeping up with the TV ads as we head toward September and the airwaves start to get flooded. We'll probably go into highlight mode, picking the ones out that we think are making an impact. . .

WHERE'S THE HEAT?

A reader who follows the national scene and La Politica from Washington comes with this:

Hi Joe, It’s curious that Gov. Martinez appears largely to have received a free press pass for any culpability in Albuquerque’s police problems while Gov. Nixon in Missouri doesn't:

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D) finds himself at the center of a storm of unrest in the St. Louis suburb of Ferguson. He has the near-impossible task of balancing the interests of local protesters outraged over the shooting of an unarmed teenager against the effort to maintain order. Late Monday, as protesters were gathered once again on the streets of Ferguson before a midnight curfew kicked in, he tweeted hopefully: “Let’s show the world that we can protest peacefully and passionately. Two minutes later violence erupted. The new attention comes just weeks after Nixon, 58, stoked rumors that he wants to be considered for the 2016 national ticket with a visit to Iowa and a trip to Colorado to huddle with major Democratic donors. . .

The difference in coverage by be attributable to the fact that Ferguson is a small city while ABQ is a large one with a high-profile mayor who can take the heat. Then again, Martinez is somewhat of a national figure, so why shouldn't she be taking some heat like Nixon for the APD crisis being investigated by the Dept. of Justice?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Don't get to mad at us Burque fans, but despite assurances that "Burque" as shorthand for "Albuquerque" has been in widespread usage for decades, it really hasn't. This billboard making the round sums it up.

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Here's a little pleasant surprise. Gov. Martinez and Gary King have agreed to a TV debate that actually may get some viewers. It will air October 19 on KOAT-TV from 6 to 7 p.m. While that is not quite prime time it is better than what the station has done with political debates in the past which is put them in the Sunday afternoon ghetto of 4 in the afternoon.

The two candidates have only one other confirmed joint appearance--a Sept. 22 forum before the NAIOP biz group. That, however, won't be televised and get this--the candidates will be supplied the questions a week in advance so they can prepare their answers. That's not a joke--but the joint appearance may turn out that way. . .

Martinez has rejected a debate at the NM Press Association and not responded to invites for ones before Congregation Albert and KNME-TV. It's called protecting the lead. If she stalls out look for more joint appearances. . .

And by they way, where are the debate invites from KOB-TV and KRQE-TV?

DOUBLING DOWN

Expect Martinez to double down on her negative TV attack campaign against Dem Guv nominee Gary King. That Sunday Journal poll showing her right on the important 50 percent mark (King had 41%) but not over it, has recalibrated expectations among casual political observers and voters who may have thought she would have been higher. Some have speculated that Martinez's heavy negative campaign against King over the summer may have shaved not only some points from King but also few from her as voters recoil from the harshness. Her latest TV hit on King came late Friday as she again hearkened back to the 80's and his days in the Legislature to taunt him for voting for a tax increase. . . .

REVERBERATIONS

That Journal poll continues to reverberate. The liberal Daily Kos took a look and concludes that Martinez might actually be polling under the 50% mark the newspaper has her at:

There are a few big caveats regarding this poll. . .The survey only samples voters who turned out in 2010 and said they would likely vote again, which reflects a worst-case scenario for Democrats. The poll also weighs by "known distribution of age, gender, and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election." This is problematic for the same reasons. While it's very likely 2014 turnout will look more like 2010 than 2012, it's still a lot to assume this year will be a repeat of the last midterm. Longtime observers also know that weighting by party is a risky proposition, since political affiliation is much more fluid than gender or age.

Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling which conducts the Journal's polls responds:

The sample we surveyed is not “the worst case scenario for the Democrats.” The worst case scenario for Democrats is that turnout will be even lower in 2014 than in 2010.

And given the lack of enthusiasm about this election thus far, that could happen.

TALK RADIO CRASH

In the radio business the poll that counts is done by the ratings firm Nielsen Audio. Regular readers will know we've been tracking what has been a breathtaking decline in the status of 50,000 watt KKOB-AM, the right-wing talk station that for years held the #1 market position. We have an update and it's more depressing news for the station. For the first time perhaps ever the station does not even command a five percent share of the audience that is aged 12 or older. Nielssen says its summer ratings show KKOB earning a 4.9 percent share.  The station has suffered a nearly 50 percent drop in its audience from its peak of years ago. The #1 ABQ station in the latest ratings is 94 Rock, KZZR-FM, garnering a 5.2 share of listeners.

GETTING WILD

Joel Gay, communications director of the New Mexico Wildlife Federation, writes of our blogging from Taos last week:

 I thought your comment about more "hunters, fishermen, skiers and rafters" keeping the Taos area afloat was right on. Outdoor recreation has always been part of what makes Taos unique and is why Taosenos strongly supported Rio Grande del Norte National Monument. Permanently protecting some 250,000 acres along the Rio Grande and in the plains above, from Ute Mountain to San Antonio Mountain and from Taos to the Colorado border, assures that future generations will have places with good hunting, fishing and rafting, not to mention livestock grazing, firewood collecting and pinon gathering. That means jobs and the ability to feed your family and keep your house warm. One reason President Obama used his authority under the Antiquities Act to designate the monument was because of the broad local support.

Does New Mexico have one of the best records in the nation when it comes to protecting our vast wilderness areas? Think so. And both Dems and R's have worked together for decades to achieve it. . .

THE BOTTOM LINES

Our summer reading of NM Governor Arthur Hannett's autobiography--"Sagebrush Lawyer," caught the eye of reader Dean Smith:

Sunday's ABQ Journal poll showing  Governor Susana Martinez beating Democrat Gary King 50 to 41 percent with 9 percent undecided wasn't a stunner, but it did demonstrate that enthusiasm for the first term Republican Governor has peaked. The obvious is that she remains favored for re-election. But this is now a campaign that will draw more scrutiny than it did over the summer.

Martinez has thus far been blessed by weak opposition in King, but because this poll does not have the Governor closing out the race early, it gives him what could be a brief window of opportunity. With $4 million in cash, Martinez will move rapidly to close that window. King's campaign kitty was a mere $116,000 last month.

This poll appears to put him firmly in gambling territory. Is the race on the cusp of being winnable and sways him to write a check from his family wealth for $1 or $2 million? Or does he plod ahead hoping serendipity strikes?

(King came back on TV last week with an ad about his family's legacy of service to the state).

POLL WATCHING

The pundits, Alligators and insiders were quick to weigh in on the first public poll of the '14 Guv derby that has widespread credibility and a long history of accuracy.

Pollster Bruce Donisthorpe had the Guv race at 53-to 40 in favor of Martinez in a June 10 automatic phone poll he conducted for the NM Republican Party. He says:

The Journal poll shows that all the Republican vote is now in and going predictably for the Governor. She has dropped some with independents and Democrats over the summer. Independents are the key for King to break the race open which is why you are seeing much talk about education from both sides. It is high on the list of issues for independents. 

The ball is in King's court. He has to make the next move. I would expect he would run a more aggressive TV campaign against her than what we have seen. Unless King interrupts the campaign and the turnout model, Martinez is trending toward the 52-53 percent mark.

Martinez won election in 2010 by beating Diane Denish 53.29% to 46.55%. In the 2010 August 23-27 ABQ Journal poll Dem Diane Denish pulled 39% to Martinez's 45%.

DEMORALIZED DEMS

Former ABQ GOP City Councilor Greg Payne--now an independent--has consulted a wide variety of campaigns including GOP Governor Gary Johnson's 1994 winning effort. His take:

The good news for Martinez, she’s in the lead. The bad news--after spending heavily attacking her opponent and getting consistently favorable coverage from most of the media--she’s only at 50%. There’s no question she wants to be polling much higher than that, and ought to be in the high 50s.

Martinez is positioned well to win the election, but not because of her record or her campaign. She has a state full of disorganized and demoralized Democrats to thank for that. 

In a sense, the most important part of this campaign was the psychological war the Martinez machine successfully waged against Democrats, convincing them they could not win in 2014 and should just go along, play nice and position themselves for the 2018 election. These polls numbers show they could have won this November if they’d bothered to try.

The Journal poll is not a resounding show of strength from Martinez. If King were winning Democrats the way Martinez is winning Republicans, if Albuquerque--a Democratic city--were supporting King and not his Republican opponent, this would be a much different election. 

Dem pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides agrees with Donisthorpe on the trend and adds:

The goods news for the Democrats is that it appears a Democratic disaster will be averted. The bad news is that King still appears to be about 54,000 votes behind. He is going to have to motivate Democratic voters to change the turnout model. Martinez has peaked but projected turnout takes her to the 53 percent area. King needs to sweeten up Democrats who are not enthusiastic about him. He will need to spend heavily on TV and go negative in a big way. . . 

Martinez and her allies spent $1 million on TV over the summer--much of it attacking King--but she is not past 50 percent. That shows that everything isn't rosy over there. Besides jobs and the economy, King should look to social issues--like the right of women to control their health care--in order to get Democratic women to vote.

GATOR STRIKE

From the Alligator pond comes this from an insider Dem:

The Governor at 50% is the big story here. She has peaked out and it should be a wake up call to the Governor's people that she needs to change her image and policies to have a stronger November showing. If she wants to be a national figure, now is the time to show something special and run up the scoreboard on a lackluster Democratic candidate. But it looks like she is having a very hard time doing that.

King is surviving on the base Democratic vote  and not much more. He needs to win back Democratic Hispanic votes from Martinez and be more competitive in Albuquerque with independents. But we've all known this for months. The question is: What is Gary King doing about it? So far, the answer is "not much." There's 9% undecided and the rule of thumb is that 3/4 of that vote should go to the challenger, which means we are talking a 53-47 race which puts it well in the realm of King winning. But without a plan, without a strategy, that ain't gonna happen.

Does Martinez at 50 percent influence the down ballot races? This Gator thinks so:

The somewhat good news here for Dems is that the Governor is not safe enough for her to generate a lot of coattails or to start spending on the lower ballot races. This should make state auditor candidate Tim Keller and secretary of state candidate Maggie Toulouse Oliver happy. It also might take some heat off state House Democrats.  But the bad news for Dems is the turnout model. This election is becoming a snoozer and Dems have to watch out for a low-turnout election dominated by conservative Anglo seniors voting Republican. Young people, Hispanics and women are less interested this year. If  party leaders want to avoid a black eye they need to generate some enthusiasm.

BYE, BYE, BROOKS

Well, they didn't exactly run him out of town on a rail, did they? In fact, ABQ Public Schools Superintendent Winston Brooks resigned Friday accompanies by glowing statements of approval as the APS Board appeared to shiver in sheer fear that he would sue the pajamas off them--for what we don't know, but something.

Then there's that weird legal clause involving his wife Anne that states no one at APS better say anything nasty about her--or else. It seemed to be the tip-off that the Board simply did not have the goods on Brooks. So they had to buy the 62 year old out with a plump $350,000 check, a letter of recommendation and that promise to see no evil and hear no evil when it comes to Mr. and Mrs. Winston Brooks. So what specifically are taxpayers paying Brooks $350,000 for? Inquiring minds would like to know but it may take a court battle to find out.

The Guv and Public Education Secretary Hanna Skandera--who long battled with Brooks--were no doubt glad to see him go. Whether they played a hand in his departure, we'll leave to the Black Helicopter crowd (of which we are a charter member). Now we wait to see if the APS turmoil spills onto the campaign trail. . .

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author