Why has the relatively obscure issue of "right to work" become the be-all-end-all of the 2015 legislative session? Several factors have pushed the anti-union measure to the fore, not the least of which is the national political positioning of Republican Governor Susana Martinez.

Soon after their historic November takeover of the state House, Republicans began fretting about their crazy aunt in the basement. She's the one who wants to ban gay marriage, late term abortion, loosen gun control laws and doesn't believe in climate change. All are positions that are entirely out of step with majority New Mexico opinion but are embraced by a strong majority of Republicans.

There would be no quicker way to alienate the state from the freshly empowered GOP House and its newly re-elected governor than to allow those "crazy aunt" issues to dominate the pre-legislative debate. That was the cue for the Governor's political advisers. Among the first bills prominently filed by GOP legislators were right to work bills. They attracted plenty of news coverage and signaled to the public that this would be the premier issue of Session '15, not the divisive social issues.

In a right to work state you have the right to decline joining a union and you cannot be required to pay dues to the union unless you choose to join the union.

Even Republican Mayor Berry, who has the same political adviser as the Governor, got into the act by conducting a news conference with the ABQ Chamber of Commerce to tout right to work.

The crazy aunt in the basement has been handcuffed. Longtime social conservative Republicans were silenced, content to buy into the argument that if the lightning rod issues were unleashed, it would endanger the GOP's future grip on the state House as well as Martinez's national reputation. That reputation rests on her image as a  Republican of a moderate stripe, not a spear-carrying radical

Martinez hopes her next stop is the national stage. Seizing on right to work as a banner issue strengthens her with base Republican voters even as she ignores their most emotional issues. If successful, it will bolster her argument that she is a Republican who appeals to Democratic voters, something the minority R's desperately need (we saw that recently when US House Speaker Boehner punished Republicans who rebelled against him).

With legislative leaders of the anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage movements muzzled and appearing to have bought into Martinez's view, you wonder about the grassroots members of those movements. They give much money and votes to Republicans. Will they emerge during the session to rock the boats of Martinez and the House leadership?

As for the legislative battle over right to work, it passed the Legislature twice in the early 1980's only to be vetoed by Democratic governors. Even though experts in selecting locations for businesses say such a law is no longer relevant and even though a minuscule 4 percent of the state's private labor force belongs to a union, it has a shot of getting to Martinez's desk for her signature.

The Republican controlled House is a no-brainer. The bill passes there. It then heads to the state Senate where the R's can be expected to unanimously vote for the bill. They will need four conservative Democrats to join them to get the win. Can they get them?

If Martinez prevails it will be a major legislative accomplishment for a tenure that has few of them. If it fails you can bet she'll blame the lack of economic progress on the Senate Democrats who all face re-election in 2016.

It seems the wind is completely out of the sails of the forlorn New Mexico Democratic Party after the disaster delivered to them by the gubernatorial candidacy of Gary King and their loss of the state House. National labor unions so far have shown little interest in tangling over right to work here. They spent millions to try to keep the state House out of GOP hands and failed. They and other traditional Democratic interest groups seem spent.

The Governor and her political minions have been able to shape the pre-legislative debate in a vacuum and to their liking. Going into the session it is they who have the momentum.

This column is also published in the ABQ Free Press, on newstands now.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

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DA Brandenburg

The city of Albuquerque is finally getting the long overdue political brawl it sorely needs. Will it lead to the clean-up of its deeply stained police department?




DEFENDING SAM

Slamming Sam has become a popular pastime of La Politica but today we have his defenders as well.

NM Dem Party Chair and attorney Sam Bregman has most recently been taking heat for taking on the case of Keith Sandy, one of two police officers charged with shooting and killing homeless camper James Boyd. Ken Rooney writes:

I've got to address some of these Democrats that are "slamming" Sam for, gasp, defending an individual who has every right to a vigorous defense and a fair trial. The cognitive dissonance is astounding. Sure, I get it. People have to ask, "how can they defend these people?" That question is probably no less true for the defense attorneys that defend the Tsarnaevs of the world. In a word: the presumption of innocence, one of the most basic building blocks of our criminal justice system (alright, a lot more than one word).

This has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with what every good attorney does: zealously advocate on their client's behalf. Sure, Sam was an awful Dem Chair but he is a damn good attorney.

Nor should defending the accused be a principle that is diametrically opposed with the ideals of the Democratic Party. I had grown up with a Democratic party that embraced the idea of equality and justice for all. . .

Chris Erickson writes:

Joe, I don’t find it that odd that Dem Party Chair Sam Bregman is the defense attorney for an APD officer accused in the killing of homeless camper James Boyd. After all, John Adams defended the two British soldiers accused of murder during the Boston Massacre in 1770. So Bergman follows in a grand American tradition. The re-enactment of the Boston Massacre trail from the HBO John Adams mini-series can be found here.

Of course, Bregman alone doesn't share the burden of the Dems November disaster. There was that hyper-controversial corporate tax cut supported by a number of Dem liberals that also put the party on a collision course with its base. Maybe they can take a page from the playbook of their neighbors over in Arizona:

In the better late than never category, the BernCo county commission finally got around to approving the minimum wage increase that it was supposed to put into effect January 1:

The  Commission Tuesday evening approved a cost of living increase for minimum wage workers in unincorporated Bernalillo County, to $8.65 an hour. The measure takes effect on Jan. 26, 2015. Future cost of living increases, if applicable, will be brought to the County Commission for consideration in September of each year. 

Now those getting the minimum wage can use some of it to pay the quarter cent increase in the gross receipts tax that the commission seems bound and determined to approve.

Another spate of violence involving APD and it's raising questions on how much progress, if any, the city is making in reforming the troubled agency.

Tuesday night, only a day after District Attorney Kari Brandenburg charged two APD officers with murder for a 2014 shooting, APD shot and killed a suspect in the mid-NE Heights. Eerie.

And then we had APD shooting another cop by mistake. On top of that there was the shooting of a police officer by a suspect. All of this since the start of 2015.

US Attorney Damon Martinez and the Justice Department, which is working to overhaul APD, obviously need to step on the gas. Meanwhile, Mayor Berry asserts that the violence and police chaos that plagues this town is not impacting its national reputation and ability to attract business, that we are providing an example on how to reform a police department. Say what? That's like turning tragedy into farce. . .

THE THUGOCRACY

The bunker mentality of Berry and APD may have reached its zenith when a staffer for District Attorney Brandenburg was shut out from a briefing on the Tuesday night shooting. It was an outrageous action, turning on its head decades of precedent and legal requirement. But then Brandenburg has charged two cops with crimes and the Berry Bunker is in full attack mode.

The thugocracy that has taken hold at the police department and the acquiescence to it by a very weak chief executive is going to end badly. That an unelected rogue APD had the gall to bar the highest elected law enforcement official of the county from a crime briefing of a fatal police shooting reveals a dangerous arrogance. If that isn't enough to get our passive US Attorney off his seat, what is?

THE HOT SEAT

Talk about a hot seat. What New Mexico judge will end up presiding over one of the most celebrated cases of this young century?

After Bernalillo County District Attorney Brandenburg announced the unprecedented filing of murder charges against two APD officers who shot and killed mentally disturbed homeless camper James Boyd, District Court Judge Alisa Hadfield was assigned to preside over the preliminary hearing. Hadfield would determine at that hearing if Brandenburg's charges merited sending the case to trial. But it's unlikely that Judge Hadfield or any other ABQ District Court judge will end up wielding the gavel in this sensational case. Former Bernalillo County Chief Deputy District Attorney Pete Dinelli says:

The assignment of Judge Hadfield is not permanent and just the first one up. Cases are assigned on a rotating basis as they are filed and she was the first Judge assigned the case. The defense or prosecution can now disqualify her without cause or Judge Hatfield could recuse (disqualify) herself. This process will now happen with each assignment as it occurs. The prosecution and defense could approach the presiding Criminal Judge to assign the case or request an experienced pro tem judge (retired) to handle it. 

The case is so hot that the Legal Beagles say it could fall to the NM Supreme Court Chief Justice to name a judge. All the ABQ District Judges have had cases involving APD and that makes it difficult for any of them to preside over the Boyd case. Dinelli adds:

What is needed is a highly respected Judge with enough "gravitas" and experience to be able to preside over such a high profile criminal case who will not worry about political consequences and be completely comfortable dealing with the pressure of making a decision on whether there is enough evidence to prosecute. By going with a criminal information and a preliminary hearing before a Judge, the DA has made a politically smart decision and shifted the political consequences of a career-ending case to a Judge and away from her and a grand jury.

Don't expect that preliminary hearing to happen anytime soon. With all the legal wrangling to come it could be a year. And if a judge eventually decides the case should go to trial, don't expect to see it in media saturated ABQ. One of the APD officer's attorneys is already making noise about how no fair trial could be held here.

For cases that have received extraordinary public attention, Las Cruces is often selected as an alternative venue because it is outside the ABQ media market.

SLAMMIN' SAM

The Monday blog on the political impact of having attorney Sam Bregman--chairman of the NM Democratic Party--serving as the chief attorney for one of the accused cops, brought reaction. This one was typical:

Like many Dems I was astounded to see Sam Bregman on TV bashing District Attorney Kari Brandenburg and just as sickened to see the law firm of former NM Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon joining in with Bregman to fight against her. You would think that Colon's firm and Bregman would show some political sense and stay out of it. I wonder if they understand that (Gov. Martinez political adviser) Jay McCleskey, (ABQ Chief Administrative Officer) Rob Perry and Mayor Berry are likely shaking their heads in amazement about how easy it is to roll over these Democrats when you wave some cash.  But this is the state of the Democratic Party of New Mexico--because there's no leadership at the top, people are allowed to run amok and pledge that they are loyal Democrats with one hand and with the other they're taking government contracts or representing clients affiliated with the Martinez administration. 

THE HEYDAY AND TODAY

It was 2004--the heyday of Big Bill and ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez when the national media and the local biz community was imagining ABQ as a darling of the new century.  So very long ago, The  news today:

Albuquerque placed 179 out of 200 in the large city category, falling 24 spots from its ranking of 155 in Milken’s 2013 index of best-performing cities. The report says the index is designed to measure how well cities are “promoting economic vitality based on job creation and retention, the quality of new jobs, and other criteria.” For perspective, Albuquerque placed 20th among large cities in the Milken index in 2004.

Will ABQ ever return to those salad days when it ranked so high? No, the history of the city has been irrevocably changed , but certainly we can do better.

Sam Bregman (Journal)

New Mexico Democrats may have found themselves confused in the wake of the announcement that Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg has filed murder charges against the two APD officers who shot and killed homeless camper James Boyd.

What in the name of Sam Hill was attorney and NM Democratic Party Chairman Sam Bregman doing by becoming a defense attorney for one of the accused cops? After all it is the Republican administration of Mayor Richard Berry that has the police shooting albatross around its neck. Now critical Dems charge that top Dem Bregman will be vigorously defending the officers and inadvertently helping to bail out Berry and his troubled APD.

The numerous fatal police shootings since 2010 have roused many in the Dem Party base, with the shocking Boyd shooting especially galvanizing students, Hispanics and liberals. But if you listened to Sam you would never know it. He went as far as to say Brandenburg's decision to file the murder charges was "disgusting."

Well, that's a sample of Sam's famous bombast and language of his lawyerly duties. Never mind that his performance as chairman of the state Dems often elicits the same adjective.

Veteran political analyst and consultant Greg Payne comes with this take on the bizarre optics of the Democrats and the police shootings:

NM Democrats cannot get their collective acts together. The rash of APD shootings occurred under a Republican mayor (Berry), a Republican chief administrative officer (Rob Perry) and, for a while, a Republican chief public safety officer (Darren White). The murder charges and excessive force findings of the DOJ should be a political nightmare for the GOP. They're not. Somehow, this has become a political minefield for Democrats.

The Democratic District Attorney brought the murder charges against officers Keith Sandy and Dominique Perez, but lined up against her is none other than current state Democratic Chairman Sam Bregman, who represents Sandy, and attorney Luis Robles, who represents Perez and is with the same law firm as former Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon.

Topping it off, Hector Balderas (the new Attorney General) will have to decide at some point if he will pursue bribery charges against fellow Democrat Brandenburg; charges which were made against the DA by the police department run by R.J. Berry and Rob Perry.

Interesting take, Greg. Do you suppose when Mayor Berry runs for Governor he'll use Sam as a character witness for how he ran APD? Can it get any crazier?

As for Brandenburg, in announcing her decision on the Boyd case, she put on her second solid news conference of the past two months. The first dealt with APD's accusations that she bribed witnesses involved in criminal cases against her son.

As you might suspect, the national media isn't much interested in that, but are very much interested in two police officers being charged with murder as we see in this NYT piece.

Brandenburg's charges will be assessed by a district court judge at a preliminary hearing. That judge will decide if the case goes to trial.

(Video of the Bregman and Brandenburg news conferences is here.)

KICKING THE CAN?

As is her custom, Governor Martinez unveiled a state budget Monday that largely mimics the one presented last week by the Legislative Finance Committee. Martinez also calls for spending $6.3 billion for the budget year that begins July 1st. And like the LFC she assumes there will be $141 million in "new money" to fund it. However that new cash is going to take a mighty hit from the crash in oil prices. Energy royalties and taxes fund nearly 20 percent of the budget. Martinez asserts that growth in gross receipts and corporate tax collections will make up for some of that, but she isn't saying how much.

(Martinez's budget news release is here.)

Considering that for each dollar drop in the price of oil the budget takes a $7.5 million hit, Martinez's optimism seems fanciful. Oil dived yet again as she was announcing her budget in Las Cruces amid the now ubiquitous (and annoying?) stage setting of her with a group of school children. A barrel of the black gold is now in the $47 range--$19 below where the LFC is projecting.

It seems both Martinez and to a lesser extent the LFC are playing kick the can. Major brokerage firms are now predicting that for 2015 the price of oil will be way down from the $66 that Martinez and the LFC predict. Goldman Sachs is now predicting West Texas crude will average a price of only $47 a barrel for 2015. It predicts an uptick to the 60's in 2016.

One suspects that by the end of the 60 day legislative session in March the lawmakers will be looking at their optimistic budget with a good deal of skepticism. Senate Finance Chair John Arthur Smith is already saying the "new money" will not materialize. The kick the can game can be played for a month or two, but the old can is going to be too big for anyone to kick when the winter turns to spring.

R RADIO WIN

Republicans had plenty of good election results to celebrate in November and it turns out their favorite radio station also has reason to join the celebration.

Conservative radio talker KKOB-AM has been getting slammed so hard in the ratings that last year it lost its long-held position as ABQ's most listened to station. But election talk apparently gave the home of Michael Savage and Rush Limbaugh a reprieve. It bounced back to the #1 slot in the fall Nielsen ratings, garnering a 6.9 percent share of the total audience. KKSS-FM took second with a 5.2 rating.

There's no election in '15 so the station might have to come up with new tricks to hold the top slot. Come to think of it, that also applies to the state House Republicans who just took over the state House majority for the first time in 60 years.

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Senate Finance Chairman John Arthur Smith

Let's start the new week with some real deal biz and economic coverage. First up is that latest state budget outlook.

The Santa Fe bean counters could not bring themselves to lower yet again the estimate on how much new money lawmakers will have when they start drafting a budget this month for the fiscal year that begins July 1. You can hardly blame them for keeping their fingers crossed and carrying rabbits feet around. Unless energy prices rebound, they are in for a world of hurt. . .

The crash in oil prices has so shaken the Roundhouse they've given up on soothsaying. Instead of predicting what final state revenues will be, the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) is offering up widely varying scenarios. One has $141 million in new money available. Another assumes revenues actually drop 1 percent over this year's. How legislators legislate into that black hole of ambiguity is anyone's guess. You can already hear the catcalls: "My revenue estimate is better than yours!"

The LFC budget proposed for the rose-colored glasses crowd totals around $6.3 billion, not much more than this year's $6.2 billion. That's the best case scenario. To get there they put aside a budget reserve of about 8 percent of revenue, instead of over 10 percent. That's still more than $500 million but it could go lower if oil stays in the tank.

If for the next year oil prices average where they are today--just below $50--the rose colored glasses are going to crack. The "new money" projection will be wiped out. If oil pops up so does a state budget that gets nearly 20 percent of its revenue from oil and gas royalties and taxes. (By the way, natural gas remains in a bear market and isn't about to make up for the oil losses).

ON ITS BACK

Taking a look back shows us just how flat on its back this state's economy has been. General fund revenues for FY08 totaled $6.041 billion. Here we are 8 years later with the optimistic budget at only $6.3 billion. That's a mere 4 percent increase in all that time. Of course, all of that increase and more was long ago wiped out by inflation. Incredible.

Not that the entire budget stagnation was caused by the economic wreck. It could be argued that before the debacle began the state recklessly cut income taxes on high earners as well as the capital gains tax, although we did have a sales tax increase along the way.

BRING BACK THE BULL

Few doubt that there will be another bull market in energy prices. But with the advent of renewable energy, increased oil supplies from fracking, electric cars, millenials driving less and fears about climate change, you have to seriously entertain the thought that oil has entered a new era and with it the New Mexican budget and government. The issue is whether the next oil bull will be as powerful and as long-lasting as those of the past 80 years and that have been the ace in the hole for this small, poor state.

It's the money collected from energy and invested in the stock market that is largely responsible for giving us a State Permanent Fund of over $14 billion--one of the largest of its kind in the world. We now get an annual revenue stream of over $750 million a year from the state's two permanent funds.

It seems mythological when you hear that someday--when the state's energy resources are depleted--that the Permanent Fund will be there to save us. For the first time in state history that doesn't seem so imaginary.

If energy prices enter a long-term pause and no economic substitutes are created, the next generation of New Mexicans could depend even more on their grandparents' financial legacy to keep the trains running.

OF ELEPHANTS AND INTEL

Talk about ignoring the elephant in the room. How can the mayor of Rio Rancho give an in-depth economic briefing and not even mention the precarious outlook for Intel, the city's largest employer and major economic driver? Since 400 were laid off at the chipmaker last year, rumors have been rife that Intel is out of here, meaning the 2,900 remaining jobs there are at risk. Can you tell us anything about that, Mr. Mayor?

Well, dealing in cold, hard reality is the last thing on the to-do list of the politicos. But what is happening is quite obvious. Rio Rancho continues to attract call center jobs (which is okay) but it has no idea what to do to replace the high-paying Intel jobs as they gradually disappear.

The economy that is shaping up to replace the one driven by Intel and its billions is based on service sector jobs--call centers, restaurants and retail. Those are traditionally among the lower paying jobs.

The Rio Rancho experience is emblematic of the metro area as a whole. No better example is the reconstruction of Winrock Shopping Center, smack dab in the middle of ABQ and perhaps the most valuable retail real estate in the state. The stores that are going in there are aimed squarely at consumers in lower and lower-middle wage brackets--Nordstrom Rack, DWS shoes and Ulta cosmetics, to name a few.

It's not just happening here but across the nation as affluence is spread among a smaller segment of the population and as high-paying jobs dry up. The mayor of Rio Rancho knows that, but it's not polite for him to say it. We don't mind doing it for him.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author