Friday, February 27, 2015A Pause For A Look At New Mexico's Big Picture
Here's my latest column for the ABQ Free Press on newsstands now. . .
If the biz community wants to make history they could support dropping various tax incentives and in exchange lower the job-inhibiting gross receipts tax. They could support the formation of a state bank to get money flowing in this capital-starved economy in which bankers shiver at the thought of loan risk. They could support the constitutional amendment to fund very early childhood programs from the state's vast Permanent Fund to begin resolving the state's social conditions crisis.
You see, many business people don't want to move here (particularly the ABQ metro) because the place is riddled with crime, poor schools and social pathologies that are portrayed as fictional on TV shows like "Better Call Saul" and "Breaking Bad" but are far too real. You can't sell New Mexico by telling business people they will want to live in gated communities and send their kids--and those of their employees--to private schools.
Right-to-work and failing third graders are simply not serious solutions to resolve what's facing us. They are wedge issues designed to advance a political agenda--not a true reform agenda that would pull New Mexico up and begin the very demanding task of competing with the quality of life and business conditions found in states only a couple hundred miles away.
The business community--or at least its leadership--is locked in a paradigm of the past; cut taxes, give companies cash to come here and do right-to-work. Those measures are the cherry on the dessert. But what's missing here is the dessert--a secure and safe quality of live, a lower poverty rate so new residents don't feel like their stranded in a third-world outpost and a state that cares enough about its sliding standing that it begins investing in the population that is disenfranchised.
But who really wants to confront the still deepening crisis the state faces? Confronting it means taking ownership. From the Governor to the Legislature to the congressional delegation to the mainstream media, there is little discussion of how systemic, how deep and how long it is going to take New Mexico to recover not only from the recession but from decades of neglect of its social problems that are killing business.
We simply don't see the political will or the will among the populace to make the leap. It is much easier to move on, which so many do. NM now regularly ranks among the top states residents are leaving. As we've noted with shock and chagrin, this once booming Sunbelt state has actually lost population.
New Mexico has not been dealt a strong hand for this new century. Declining federal spending and what appears to be the end of the energy bull market are going to continue to keep up the pressure. This is an historic shift that has laid bare the "other economy" in which hundreds of thousands toil for low wages or withdraw from the workforce and become wards of the government. Its always been there but the federal cash and energy boom lessened its effect and visibility. Now the seismic shift has exacerbated the low-income trend and there's no hiding it.
We face a state with a lesser educated populace and an increasingly older one. Nearly ten years ago, in 2006, former GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers, now president of New Mexico State University, wrote:
Over the next 15 years, vast numbers of white workers will reach retirement age in New Mexico, while the state's Native-American and, even more so, its Hispanic population will expand dramatically. As a result, by the year 2020, 47 percent of New Mexico's working-age adults (people 25 to 64 years old) will be Latino. ... The gaps in education between New Mexico's white population and its Hispanic and Native-American populations are great enough to turn these demographic shifts into a real statewide decline.
"A statewide decline." And that's precisely what's happened (not to imply that Carruthers endorses any of our views).
This is not your granddad's boom and bust cycle. It's obvious now after so many years of downturn that short-term economic development is not in the cards for New Mexico.
Decades of sweeping problems under the rug mean we will have to spend that much more on early childhood education, workforce development, homelessness, crime prevention and substance abuse--if we care to do so.
None of this is music to the ears of fiscal conservatives. Unfortunately, the band in New Mexico has begun packing up. If we want to keep the music playing, we're going to have to pay the piper.
E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)This is the home of New Mexico politics. Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, February 26, 2015Camera Shy: City Of ABQ And Hanna Too, Plus: PARCC Protests, Susana A Cheesehead? Sanchez Orders Embalming Fluid For RTW And A Trifecta UpdateAnd then there's those very public protests by Santa Fe students over PARCC testing. The coverage has flooded the airwaves, but when asked to go on camera Public Education Secretary Hana Skandera suddenly gets camera shy. The state's electronic media has for years been browbeaten into submission by the Guv's political machine as Martinez and Mayor Berry conduct photo-op governance. Will the spell be broken in this second term? On that PARCC testing, a parent of an APS student writes: My son was told that APS is weighing cutting electives and the number of classes high schools students take down to six instead of seven. The reasoning behind it is to save on teacher pay. Teachers are telling students that much of the APS budget shortfall is due to PAARC or as it is now referred to as CRAAP. While former APS Superintendent Winston Brooks had personal issues that ultimately caused him to lose his job, unlike current Superintendent Brad Winter, he at least fought for the district. Gov. Martinez has succeeded in siphoning away more and more money each year from districts and forcing them to spend money whose sole purpose is to enhance her VP chances with Jeb Bush. Well, Martinez might want to spread her love around when it comes to the GOP prez candidates. Right now the polls have Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading the pack in Iowa. Does that mean Susana is about to become a cheesehead? More national coverage of the APD crisis with Government Executive magazine asking if it is is costing the city economically. ABQ economic consultant Mark Lautman thinks so: Economic development has become as much about growing, attracting and retaining talent as it is about growing, retaining and attracting employers. Communities vying for new job creation projects are increasingly having to prove to senior management and their site selection consultants that they can grow, attract and retain talent faster and better than the other places they are competing with. Recent national publicity about Albuquerque’s police problems last year surely hurt the city’s quality profile for recruiting companies—and talent. Those problems need to get fixed—and I hope they do. WIND WIN We all know how the crash in oil prices is slamming the state budget, which makes this all the more timely: More than $4.4 million was generated from taxes on wind production across Wyoming in the last fiscal year, according to the state Department of Revenue. . . Another reason for us to have this. EMBALM THAT THING What was Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez doing on the phone with Berardinelli Funeral Home following last night's House passage of the right-to-work (RTW) bill? Why, he was ordering up embalming fluid which he will use generously when the bill comes over to him. RTW passed the House on vote of 37 to 30 with three reps not voting. The R's included in RTW a fifty cent increase in the state minimum wage that had raised objections from SE GOP conservatives. They were brought around by inclusion of a weird amendment regarding the wage. Sanchez has named Senators Wirth, Padilla and Stewart as the Senate's official delegation to the RTW funeral which will be held in a committee room to be determined. TRIFECTA WATCH This one flew right under our radar. A state Senate committee has dealt what appears to be a death blow to Gov. Martinez's third grade retention bill. It easily passed the GOP House but Senate Public Affairs has already voted to block the measure. Third grade retention is one of three bills we collectively refer to as the Guv's trifecta of wedge issues this legislative session. The other two being right-to-work and repealing driver's licenses for undocumented workers. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, February 25, 2015Angry Anchor Makes Newsroom Splash; Joles-Dyson Clash Gets Top Billing In La Politica, Plus: Lujan Grisham And the Childhood Amendment; She Says She's For It
One outlet reported that the KOB news director told staffers after the outburst that Joles--a 25 year veteran of the anchor desk--was having trouble "fitting in" at a modern newsroom. Well, given the state of TV news, that's like saying Tom would be out of place in an insane asylum. . . The face-off was apparently sparked when Joles dressed down newbie reporter Stephanie Claytor. That--reported fight reporter Dennis Dormzalski--prompted Dyson to offer his support to the cub which prompted Joles to chew out Dyson. The two got into a good old fashioned newsroom screaming match replete with F-bombs but, Dennis sadly reported, in the end no fists flew. It reminded one of two aging dinosaurs--Dyson over 60 and Joles fast approaching it--arguing thunderously as the hatchlings gasped in amazement. Joles, who station management says is off the air for a "cool down period," may have had reason for leaning on the cub. The back story is the turmoil in that newsroom. For example, the station recently had to run a correction relating to an uncomplicated story out of the NM attorney general's office. Insiders say Joles was none too happy about it, but when you are the highest paid anchor in the ABQ market, sometimes you got to swallow hard. In any event, the bookies are giving Dyson the edge over Joles in any rematch. Even though he's older he has more combat experience and gets more sleep because he covers the Legislature. But Tom may decide some things--like trying to make sense out of TV news--just aren't worth fighting for. We're sure Dick Knipfing can tell him where he can get a good buy on a rocking chair and Brian Williams can show him some nice lunch spots in NYC. . . Things like the Dyson-Joles bout used to happen with regularity at the Roundhouse. But now that Guv Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner is minding his manners and not pinning anyone against the Roundhouse walls (we miss you, Keith) our only hope is that House Republicans Nate Gentry and Dennis Roch decide to get physical. (And that hope may not be that far fetched, given their infighting over a right-to-work bill). As for the betting in Santa Fe, those who pretend to know are doubling down on the '15 trifecta. That would be death for right-to-work, third grade retention and repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. We are in about our fifth rematch between the Governor and state Senate on two of the three. Right-to-work is the newcomer, but already looking as battered as a '57 Chevy up on cinder blocks in an Española driveway. MORE AMENDMENT NEWS Put ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham down in favor of the constitutional amendment to use a portion of the state's $14 billion Permanent Fund to finance very early childhood programs. Her office says: Yes, she supports the constitutional amendment. (ABQ Dem) Sen. Michael Padilla has the current version in this year's legislative session. The amendment, which would require the approval of both chambers of the Legislature to get placed before the voters, was killed last year in the Senate Finance Committee. The proposal was approved in the state House when Dems had control. We blogged Tuesday that the amendment is dead now that the GOP controls the state House, but with Senators Udall and Heinrich and US Reps Lujan and Grisham all now publicly supporting the amendment, perhaps there could be some movement? AMEND THAT Attorney Steve Suttle's argument here Tuesday that the state Constitution is too easy to amend drew a number of reactions. One reader points out that while most constitutional amendments require a simple majority of both houses of the Legislature and then voter approval, that is not the case for all amendments: Article XIX, Section 1 states: "No amendment shall restrict the rights created by Sections One and Three of Article VII hereof, on elective franchise, and Sections Eight and Ten of Article XII hereof, on education, unless it be proposed by vote of three-fourths of the members elected to each house and be ratified by a vote of the people of this state in an election at which at least three-fourths of the electors voting on the amendment vote in favor of that amendment." The people of New Mexico do not simply vote Yes on every proposed amendment to the state's Constitution that comes before them, and getting a proposed amendment to the people is a rare thing. This study shows the numbers through the 2012 general election: Mr. Suttle's parade of horribles -- "constitutional amendments to ban abortion, prohibit same-sex marriage, or to authorize state-sponsored prayer in schools" -- would perhaps be of concern to some if it were not for the fact that all three are patently unconstitutional, and have been so declared by the US Supreme Court. If the Legislature were to put those proposals on the ballot (very unlikely), and were the people of the state to approve them (also very unlikely), the Federal courts would take about 10 seconds to invalidate them. Not to say that Mr. Suttle's overall point, that the state Constitution should not be amended lightly, is invalid. The numbers show, however, that the Legislature and the people of the state take this responsibility seriously. Thanks for that. We ran into the higher requirement to approve certain constitutional amendments last November when a proposal to change the date for school board elections failed to pass because it did not garner 75% of the vote as required. 58% of the voters supported the amendment. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, February 24, 2015First Take On Dem State Chair Race, Tracking Congress Support For Early Childhood And The Bear Again Mauls The Four Corners
We've got the first take from the Alligators on that three way race for chairman of the NM Democratic Party. The contenders are '14 Dem lieutenant governor nominee Deb Haaland, Santa Fe County Dem Party Chair Richard Ellenberg and Chaves County Dem Party Chair Fred Moran. And the front runner is:
I would rate it about 55% for Deb Haaland, 30% for Ellenberg and 15% for Moran. Moran has very little name recognition in the central and northern areas. Ellenberg will do well in the north, and will get a decent amount of support from Bernalillo County, mostly because he’s been a fixture on the scene for so long. But Haaland is more widely known across the state than either of the other two. Democratic party State Central Committee members will meet in April to select a chair for the next two years. Sam Bregman is the outgoing chairman. TRACKING THAT AMENDMENT Northern Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan is on the record in favor of that constitutional amendment that would ask voters to allow the state's big Permanent Fund (over $14 billion) to be tapped to finance very early childhood education (ages 0 to 5). We pointed out Monday that both of the state's US Senators now support the amendment. ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham has not taken a position and we haven't seen anything from southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. In a recent speech Rep Ben Ray Lujan declared: With our children ranking near the top of every bad list, we must do something to break this cycle. The Land Grant Permanent Fund was created to invest in New Mexico, to help create wealth, to pave the way for positive education. What better place than in our children’s future to invest? The amendment is opposed by state House Republicans and as long as they control that chamber the amendment is stalled. It requires approval from the House and Senate, but would not need the signature of the governor but would instead go directly to the voters. MAKE IT TOUGHER Reader and attorney Steve Suttle says amending the state Constitution is too easy. He writes: (ABQ Dem state) Sen. Ortiz y Pino’s proposal to use the amendment process to legalize marijuana is a dangerous path. Constitutions are intended to be charters and the amendment process is not a proper way to frame ordinary legislation. This is especially true when the bare-faced motive is to bypass a governor who would surely veto such a measure. What is really needed in New Mexico is a constitutional amendment making it more difficult to amend the constitution. At present, a simple majority of the Legislature and a simple majority of the voters can approve any amendment. By contrast, a two-thirds majority in each house of Congress is required to refer a proposed Federal constitutional amendment to the state legislatures or to individual state conventions where three-fourths of them must concur. The Framers deliberately made this a cumbersome process. Amending the state constitution should likewise be more difficult than it currently is. “Progressive” Democrats would be well advised to consider the specter of a future Republican-controlled Legislature using this vehicle to refer constitutional amendments to ban abortion, prohibit same-sex marriage, or to authorize state-sponsored prayer in schools. One need only look to the recent history of the abuse of the initiative and referendum process in Oklahoma to see how well founded these concerns are. SANCHEZ VS. SANCHEZ
At a memorial service Monday at the Roundhouse Rotunda for the late Lieutenant Governor Mike Runnels former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez had the honor of introducing current Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez. Said Raymond: He (John Sanchez) rose to power after kicking my butt. It was in 2000 when Republican John Sanchez ousted Raymond from his ABQ North Valley House seat and thus the speakership of the state House. After 15 years it appears the pair have buried the hatchet but we still wouldn't look for Raymond to endorse John for Governor in 2018. ZIMMERMAN VS. MARTINEZ That didn't take long. Former Dem State Rep. Rudy Martinez, ousted from his Las Cruces area seat in an upset in November by Republican John Zimmerman, is already out on the campaign trail trying to unseat Zimmerman in 2016. Maybe that's why Zimmerman was cozying up to Dem Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith at the Rio Chama. He needs some goodies to keep Rudy at bay. BEAR MAULING The great energy Bear is back and again mauling the Four Corners: Local contractors in the oil and gas industry are facing severe cuts in the wake of fallen oil prices. One industry leader in the San Juan Basin, WPX Energy, has asked its contractors for a 20 percent price cut on goods and services. . . One of WPX's vendors is Farmington's Calder Services Inc. Shannon Calder Monk said. . . the cuts would be damaging to her family business. "I understand their point of view but I am not making a 20 percent profit," Monk said. "Did (WPX) take a 20 percent cut? I just don't have it to cut it." If you represent the Farmington area in the Legislature, are you pounding the table for more capital outlay projects for the region? You ought to be. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, February 23, 2015Out Of The Wilderness? Udall, Grisham Speeches Have Sharper Edge, Plus: ABQ Is More Than APD And Session Reaches Halfway Mark
Grisham has never been a fave of the party's liberal wing and she still has not given the nod to that amendment--which is turning into a litmus test of sorts for for the party's progressives--but her speech to the Legislature signaled that Dems may finally be realizing that unless they shake something up, they are going to cede even more ground to the R's. In Grisham's case, she needs to curry favor with base Democratic voters who will be showing up in the far away 2018 Dem Guv primary--if she chooses to go that route. Whatever the case, we think Dem attorney general and possible Guv contender Hector Balderas is paying close attention. For Udall, safely re-elected in '14 to a second six year term, pressure has been growing. The dead-end NM economy has meant even more poverty--especially among children--and the shocking depopulation of the state that is occurring under his watch--screamed out for attention from a senator considered a leading liberal light. His shout-out before the Legislature was acknowledgement of that. Are the Udall and Grisham speeches precursors to a change in the political narrative from wedge issues like repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants to the more fundamental issues facing the state? We'll see. . . HALFWAY POINT Halfway through the 60 day legislative session now. It appears it's going to be another minimalist gathering, with approval of an essentially flat $6.2 billion state budget and the state Senate again looking like a graveyard for the Governor's perennial wedge issues (with the addition this year of right-to-work). Martinez is going to need a hat trick if she is going to get a headline grabber at the end of this gathering ALL THE OTHERS With the ABQ police department being roiled like never before in the national media, the city's image has taken a severe hit. But what about the 5,000 or so city employees who labor outside of APD? Since the recession/stagnation took hold here in 2010 they have seen pay cuts, been subjected to furloughs and seen vacant positions go unfilled. Most of them earn a middle-class salary and are not getting rich. If the national spotlight shined on them, they would come out looking pretty darn good. For example. . . City bus drivers zip along, providing competent, courteous service. The ABQ fire department has a new chief and a commitment to modern firefighting. It makes for a safer city. The ABQ Sunport, as we've mentioned before, is simply one of the best in the USA. Excellent customer service combine with a great terminal to create a friendly experience. Don't blame them that the recession has made getting a flight trickier. The Animal Welfare Department never has a slow day, yet it routinely goes about the business of attending to the needs of thousands of abandoned pets, providing a service near and dear to the hearts of city residents. The ABQ Museum is about to unveil a $4 million update to its permanent exhibit explaining the intriguing history of ABQ, with all the 21st century technology that entails. While money has become tighter, major city street repairs seem to be getting done. The recent paving of the intersection of University and Central, where cars were subjected to severe wash boarding, is a prime example. The Solid Waste Department is another agency that has a solid record of delivering on its promises. Over the decades garbage collection in ABQ has been modernized, sanitized and made more user-friendly. There are many other departments and employees who go about their business, competently and diligently. We see it in our everyday lives as we take advantage of a well-conceived park system, well-maintained libraries and a zoo that has built a strong following. We've hit the wall economically in recent years but the legacy of past leaders and citizens of building a strong, modern government lives on. To preserve and enhance it, today's city leaders need to act with more urgency to put APD back on the path of progress.
MAIL IT IN
Rick Lass writes of reader Jim McClure's suggestion that we do away with low voter turnout school board elections and have the mayor appoint the board members:
I just don't think it is workable. Very few school board district boundaries would coincide with municipality boundaries, for one. Plus, I still like the idea of electing governing bodies. One idea would be to include school board members on general election ballots--when people are already going to the polls. Of course, naysayers will worry about "too long" ballots. There is a bill introduced this year to move them to the fall of odd-number years, but I don't see how that would help. My suggestion would be that school elections be conducted by mail. Naysayers will be concerned about fraud and ID, etc. But really, it is no different than the absentee ballot system allowed for all other elections, and works very well.
Good idea, Rick. Moving the school board elections to November and/or a mail-in ballot would seem the logical way to raise interest. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
|