They weren't kidding when they told us it would take years for APD to clean up its act. The force remains at historically low staffing levels and the president of the police officers union is arrested on child abuse charges, even as the mayor and council finally move to solve a five year old pay dispute with officers.

Then there's the controversial hiring by Chief Eden of a new APD training academy director who is under investigation by the BernCo sheriff's office where she used to work. And there's more. . .

A judge orders APD to finally stop stonewalling and release cellphone video taken by a witness to the Los Altos Skate Park killing of 17 year old Jaquise Lewis (God only nows what that will ultimately reveal). And then there are those rumors on the street about possibly more police video surfacing of the slaying of 19 year old Mary Hawkes that could be incriminating for the officer who shot her.

Solutions? You know the drill. Get a new police chief; purge the APD command staff; get the police force up to 1,000 officers pronto by putting up the cash and conducting aggressive national recruiting; have the city council pressure APD and Mayor Berry to move more quickly to implement required Department of Justice reforms.

Like we said, it's going to take years. And the heads of the city's economic groups, the Chamber of Commerce, AED, the Economic Forum and NAIOP, can have all the self-congratulatory luncheons they want, but no major business is coming into this town until they get involved and help clean up this mess. Don't say we didn't tell you.

FISHY STUFF

This is one that sent off a a fishy smell:

The state is having second thoughts about spending roughly $10 million to buy an office complex to house the Albuquerque offices of the Department of Children, Youth and Families – property that sold for $1.5 million last spring. Instead of moving ahead with the purchase now, the state will seek competitive proposals for leased space to consolidate CYFD offices. However, the administration of Gov. Martinez says it still may fall back on its previous plan to purchase the campus of older, largely vacant buildings in Southeast Albuquerque.

That report was from the ABQ Journal's investigative unit. Not bad but what about an update on that federal grand jury probe of Jay McCleskey, the governor's top political adviser and widely recognized as the most influential figure in state government, despite not having an official position? Only one story so far? What's with that? Everyone gone Christmas shopping?

PARKING IT

Sometimes the amateurs are better than the pros. There are some pretty cool amateur videos out promoting the state's parks:

Governor Martinez announced the winners of the Find Your New Mexico True Park video contest to help encourage more New Mexicans to explore the state over the summer. The winning videos are here. The (state) created this promotion in order to highlight parks throughout the state and to stimulate in-state tourism. Winners were selected in three categories: New Mexico State Parks, New Mexico Historic Sites, and the National Park Service.

The "Day at White Sands" video is only a minute long but captures the allure of New Mexico quite well.

THAT'S FUNNY

Here's a funny to end the week on:

After digging to a depth of 10 feet last year outside Buffalo, New York, scientists found traces of copper cable dating back 100 years. They came to the conclusion that their ancestors already had a telephone network more than 100 years ago.

Not to be outdone by the New Yorkers, in the weeks that followed, a Los Angeles, California archaeologist dug to a depth of 20 feet somewhere just outside Oceanside. Shortly afterward, a story in the LA Times read, "California archaeologists, reporting a finding of 200 year old copper cable, have concluded that their ancestors already had an advanced high-tech communications network a hundred years earlier than the New Yorkers."

One week later, the local newspaper in Santa Fe, New Mexico reported, "After digging 30 feet deep in his pasture near the community of Santa Fe, Frankie Lopez, a heck of an engineer and a self-taught archaeologist, reported that he found absolutely nothing. Frankie has therefore concluded that 300 years ago, New Mexico had already gone wireless."

Just makes a person proud to be from New Mexico.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

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We continue to blog stuff what seems other worldly for our once thriving Sunbelt metropolis. Like this write-up from Fortune Magazine. It lists ABQ as the worst place in the nation to own a home since the start of the real estate recovery in 2012. That's dead last among 350 metro areas in the USA. Pretty stunning. Home values have been on the rebound just about everywhere during that time, but. . .

In Albuquerque, for example, home of Sandia National Laboratory, Kirtland Air Force Base, and the University of New Mexico, the government sector comprises nearly 21% of all employment compared with 14% nationally. With tight state, local and federal budgets, a more robust employment expansion has been hampered since prior to 2012. 

And here's more on why ABQ is the USA's cellar dweller when it comes to your home price increasing--news you will probably only get from our real deal biz coverage:

Real-estate data firm Trulia. . . looked at data like home values and vacancy rates in more than 350 metro areas. . .They combined that data with labor market indicators like wage growth, employment growth, and the change in the unemployment rate. The logic is that even if housing prices are rising, that might do a homeowner little long-term financial good if the area the home is in has little wage growth and lousy employment prospects.

ABQ home prices here have actually declined over 5% since the housing market elsewhere began recovering., while they have jumped 30% in the 20 city Case-Shiller Index. If it's any solace our neighbor to the south--El Paso was the 10th worst place to own a home in the last four years. Values there were off over 3%.

If folks have less equity in their homes, they tend to restrain spending. And then there's the idea of selling the house and making a tidy profit to finance retirement. ABQ is not going to mimic the booms of Phoenix or Denver and that's fine but neither do we want to become a no-growth zone like some kind of modern day Appalachia.

THE ABQ ZEITGEIST 

After years of unrelenting gloomy news about the city and as we approach the end of this year, an acceptance--if not a defensiveness--seems to be settling in--that ABQ's decades-long bull run is over and not returning.

The educated Millennials are headed out, the lower income strata is growing and increasingly dependent on food stamps, Medicaid, housing subsides and are here to stay. The lower middle and middle classes are now two income households employed in the city's service economy (call centers etc.) and make a go of it. As usual, the upper strata is fine but dwindling in the face of ongoing government cutbacks and as they age.

Looking ahead to 2016 and beyond, ABQ may remain much the same.

Its crime problem will intensify as the pie here remains meager, the chaos in the educational system will get more severe as those who can afford private schools will take advantage of them; there will be a continued mild expansion of low-wage jobs that match the skills of the workforce; health care will also grow as the population here ages and as even more lower income citizens become Medicaid eligible; there could be some influx into the city from rural New Mexico which continues to depopulate; the economic impact of Sandia and Kirtland AFB will have upswings but over the next decade will continue to drift slowly downward; UNM enrollment could be a surprise to the downside, with officials desperately seeking students to keep funding intact; political leadership will remain status quo--whether it be Dem or R--reflecting the distaste for politics among the general public who now leave voting in city elections to the elderly and generally conservative.

ABQ's appeal will remain the same in the new era, even as the economy limits the numbers who will be able to take advantage of it.

And what is that appeal? The city's setting amid natural splendor; the enviable climate; the lack of big city traffic jams; the laid back feel; the offbeat, vibrant arts scene; the unique cuisine and the embrace (for the most part) of cultural diversity.

If you were ranking Albuquerque on possessing a distinct identity it would be near the top of the 350 metro areas in the nation, not near the bottom as it has been on so many lists. In the years ahead that is what will soften the blow of watching a city that once trotted ahead like a young pony on the open range now settling into its home on the pasture.

I'm Joe Monahan reporting to you from Albuquerque.

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Sen. Sanchez

Put a lid on the season of peace talk. We'll be battling in La Politica until they light the final luminaria on Christmas Eve. And we can thank The Donald for that.

With all eyes peeled to the GOP effort to take over the state Senate in 2016, Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez moved to put Gov. Martinez and the R's on the defensive and using their leading presidential candidate as his foil:

Gov. Martinez's opposition to the state's immigrant driver's license law is similar to GOP presidential hopeful Donald Trump's racially charged comments, the state's top Democratic Senate leader said. . .Senate Majority Leader Sanchez, D-Belen, told reporters the Republican governor's efforts to repeal the law and her "lies" about pending federal Real ID requirements were "almost Trumpism" since they were dividing New Mexico residents. "We're family in New Mexico," Sanchez said. "All this governor has done is try to divide us."

Well, we may be family, but we ain't a happy one. State politics is as polarized as it is in DC.

The Guv blasted back at her archenemy, again blaming him for failing to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. Dems reloaded, pointing out that a bipartisan bill compliant with federal Real ID requirements passed the Senate this year with major support from R's but Susana still refused to compromise.

Trump and other assorted GOP lunacy that puts Martinez on the hot seat is an early Xmas gift for state Dems, but will Trump be the gift that keeps giving throughout next year's campaign? The D's are knocking on wood.

As we've noted time and again, this is a machine that throws long and deep on offense but gets weak in the knees when it comes to defense. Perhaps that's because for five years the Dems have mostly sat there and took their whipping. Now with the Senate threatened the Dems are playing a bit of offense. They better get used to it or it could be Minority Leader Sanchez or Lt. Governor John "The Tiebreaker" Sanchez.

BUDGET MYSTERIES

If the state's new projection that oil will average $49 a barrel for the budget year that starts next July goes bust, it will cost the state about $10 million in taxes and royalties for each dollar the projection falls short.

With $37 oil we're about $12 short of that goal or a $120 million hit to the $6 billion plus budget. That would mean  $112 million in "new money" available for the next budget year--not the $232 million the state broadcast this week.

But let's get out of bean counter world and into our real deal biz coverage.

The state has irresponsibly slashed tax rates under both Governors Richardson and Martinez and thus is losing literally hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues a year. All that tax cutting was supposed to stimulate the economy here. It did not and that is the defining fallacy of the Santa Fe budget hawks and their chief advocate, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.

Even a partial restoration of the previous corporate tax rate and an uptick in the personal income rate for only the wealthiest taxpayers would solve much of the budget woes facing the state.

But those who hold sway in Santa Fe are happy with the shrunken size of government and constant tight times. They say the government that governs least governs best. They seem oblivious to the fact that New Mexico is now labeled the worst run state in the nation and that all their tax cuts did not deliver what they promised. You might liken them to the climate change deniers, holding on to a notion long discredited but using their monied megaphones to keep their big fib alive.

What we need in Santa Fe are some additions to our distinguished list of "No Bullshit Economists." That list is currently: Dr. Chris Erickson at NMSU, ABQ's Dr. Kelly O'Donnell and the economists at the Brookings Institution. NMSU's Jim Peach is under consideration. (Come on UNM's BBER, we need more straight talk).

GONE KAPUT

The argument that continued increases in oil production will bail us out despite the crashing oil prices just went kaput:

According to (state) data, 12.7 million barrels of oil were produced in the state in August — a number that fell to 12.1 million in September. . . If production levels continue dropping and the price of oil fails to increase, which some experts say is likely, New Mexico businesses will be affected. From layoffs in the actual industry to a decrease in construction, to a decrease in the amount of traffic that restaurants and retail outlets in oil town areas see.

And the assertion of Dr. Tom Clifford, head of the NM Department of Finance and Administration, that lower prices at the gas pump will give NM consumers an extra $600 million to spend and that will translate into higher state tax revenues, is questionable (not withstanding this wish and hope piece from the Santa Fe paper). Has the crash in national gas prices led to a big boost in consumer spending? Tourism is helped some, but overall?  No.

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How's this for timing? Just as Martinez administration and legislative economists Monday were rolling out somewhat Pollyannish revenue estimates for the budget year that starts July 1, the oil market crashed yet again taking the price below the psychologically important $40 a barrel mark and pushing the state's fiscal standing further into doubt.

The budget estimators owned up some, saying there will now be about $232 million in "new money" for the Legislature to divvy up in its 30 day session beginning in January, a decline of over $60 million from their previous estimate. But the bean counters continue to look the other way at that unsightly oil crash as seen in their own report:

If market prices do not recover as expected, general fund revenue may decrease by $100 million or more in FY16 and FY17. It is not known whether increased production in the Permian basin will be sufficient to eliminate this outstanding price risk. In FY15 oil production grew 25%. Production is now more than double the level that prevailed over the last 30 years.

Here's our real deal biz coverage:

Oil prices are crashing and could stay crashed for months or even years, costing the state tens of millions in revenue; state gross receipts tax collections are growing mainly because of increased audits not more economic activity; an ill-advised corporate tax cut is now costing the state tens of millions more than first estimated and overall job and economic growth continues to stagnate.

 And that's all from the official document we linked to--not our opinion.

With the 2016 legislative elections fast approaching the Martinez administration--via Dr. Tom Clifford of the Department of Finance and Administration--seems especially intent on propping up the revenue estimates and the general state of the economy. So much so that State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith is pronouncing himself "strongly suspicious" of the latest estimates.

Regardless of the political positioning over the state's $6.2 general fund budget the real deal biz coverage bottom line remains:

New Mexico is in a secular (long-term) bear market with key areas of the economy (oil and gas) continuing to shrink, wages stagnating or dropping, increasing poverty rates and the out migration of people apparently going uninterrupted. No wonder the Guv would rather spend her time snapping pictures of Holly Holm.

CRIME CREEP

Berry & Chief Eden

This one caught our eye because it is yet another violent incident in the well-off far NE Heights (in the Sandia Foothills east of Tramway and Montgomery) where crime is supposed to be at bay and where Mayor Berry draws his main political support:

When two or three people wearing ski masks attempted to break into a car at the top of a steep driveway in the foothills Sunday morning, police say a man who lives in the house confronted them. He shot one man multiple times, police say. The neighborhood of large houses at the base of the Sandia Mountains is usually very quiet and peaceful, Lewis said.  “It’s weird all of a sudden this happening Sunday morning in broad daylight,” Lewis said.

And there are plenty more gun owners out there these days with the media reporting earlier in the year of a run on gun shops in the wake of a violent crime outbreak in the city.

MONITORING THE JUDGES.

First, Gov. Martinez's new talking points on DWI and then the counterpoint.

Gov. Martinez wants to step up roundups of drunken-driving fugitives and have citizen watchdogs monitor judges who are routinely lenient on drunken-driving suspects. Those are parts of new executive orders the Republican announced Monday to "crack down" on crimes related to drunken driving. The moves comes days after police say a man accused of drunken driving killed three people in an Albuquerque crash.

And the counterpoint from a reader:

Don't we already have Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) to do this? What about our dying economy, our failing education system, the ongoing corruption on the gov's watch, and our biggest city, controlled by the gov's cronies, collapsing under the weight of violent crime and police corruption? I can't believe much of the press and the public keep letting her get away with it.

Speaking of the press, Reader Bill Diven writes:

The ABQ Journal hit four-for-four on Sunday 1) expounding again on locking up more suspects without bail; 2) touting kick-fight champ Holly Holm with a heavy-paper souvenir section; 3) wrapping a gun dealer's Red Tag weapons sale around ad inserts; and 4) spreading a Bekins Van Lines ad across the bottom of the front page. And so goes poor Albuquerque: One for the money, two for the show, three to get ready and four to go.

And don't step on those Alligator shoes, Bill.

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Gov. Martinez's office responds to the 24/7 Wall St. financial website report (not to be confused with the Wall Street Journal) that New Mexico has the worst run state in the nation. Take a look:

The governor is working to reform and improve education because it is the key to lift people and their families out of poverty. And we are working to make our economy less dependent on the dysfunction in Washington, D.C. by attracting more job creators and creating more private sector employment. She encourages all those who have simply embraced the decades-long failed status quo to choose reform instead.

The Governor may be "working" but is she delivering? A court just recently stopped her major education policy in its tracks, finding the teacher evaluation tests the administration so vigorously pursued are deeply flawed. Meantime, her major education triumph in the Legislature has been approval of a symbolic bill that gives A to F grades to the public schools. How's that working out for you?

For five years Martinez has claimed our state's status of being last in the nation in reading proficiency is because we don't hold back third graders who don't test well. Never mind the merits of the argument, how about realizing that after five years you might need to craft a different policy that could win legislative approval?

But what good would that do? A bipartisan bill to solve the state's driver's license problem with undocumented immigrants passed the Senate this year with major Republican support (it was co-sponsored by Senate GOP Leader Ingle) only to be rejected by the Governor.

And then there is the "Washington dysfunction" the administration blames for all the state's economic woes. What about the five long years the administration has had to attract "job creators" and still come up empty handed? Is that all Washington's fault as well?

In the end, the Governor and her political machine revert to their default setting--that the state is the worst run because it has always been that way--the "decades-long failed status quo" as her office puts it. The solution, she avers, is too simply "embrace" her inchoate economic and educational policies and all will be well.

Instead of imagination, innovation, negotiation and results in education policy and policy across the board we get rancor, bullying, defensiveness, heated political attacks, vendettas and the passing of the buck to leaders of the past. But you would never know it if all you see is the pseudo-smiling governor posing with third graders as a compliant media eggs her on.

That, my friends, is a political strategy, not a governing strategy. And that's why you live in the worst run state in the United States.

(The ABQ Journal has our permission to run all or part of that commentary).

TEARING UP TERRELL

Steve Terrell

We see that Steve Terrell, the longtime chief political reporter for the Santa Fe New Mexican, has finally come under attack from the Governor's political machine in the aftermath of the paper's coverage of the federal grand jury investigation of Martinez's chief political adviser Jay McCleskey. That probe involves possible campaign finance irregularities.

Terrell, a respected reporter on both sides of the aisle, has carved out a middle ground in his coverage of the administration, preserving both his credibility and access. But that was then and this is now. He now joins other New Mexican reporters and its editor in being eviscerated by the machine in the aftermath of their reporting on the McCleskey revelations.

Terrell is being accused by the machine (in the guise of their operative and former GOP State Senator Rod Adair) of failing to mention in a 2014 election article critical of ABQ GOP State Representative Conrad James that Terrell's son worked for James' foe--Democrat Elizabeth Thomson. The problem with that? The James article was authored by another New Mexican reporter--not Terrell--who recently disclosed his son's involvement with Thomson when he authored a piece on James' retirement announcement.

The Adair attack on Terrell was tweeted out by McCleskey BFF and former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, even though until now White and Terrell have been friendly with each other on social media. But now that White's longtime benefactor is under the gun, Terrell goes under the bus. We won't say we told you so, Steve. But we told you so.

The bottom line is that the Guv's machine continues to feverishly work to keep any aggressive reporting at bay by attacking those who engage in it. It serves as a warning to others who might go down that path and it can be quite effective. (Witnesses the mindless babbling you still get in the Machine controlled media over Martinez as a possible VP candidate).

The cowering of the media in the Martinez era is one of the big untold stories that your blog has brought to your attention and that's now starting to publicly surface. And that's why. . .

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