Indulge us for a Friday commentary. . .

Now it's getting downright absurd. An editorial in the newspaper says, "if you can't find a cop when you need one, try calling your state senator." This after Mayor Berry's double-dipping bill to increase the number of police officers died again in the state Senate.

This mayor has presided over the most chaotic, expensive and mismanaged police department in the history of the city. It is so bad that it will block his ambitions for higher office and stain his legacy forever. His continued insistence on shifting blame for the meltdown on his watch is probably the most unpleasant aspect of his political character.

Double-dipping (allowing public sector workers to return to government jobs and keep full pensions and their salary) was dropped long ago because of the threat it presented to the solvency of the pension funds. But it just wasn't double-dipping that killed Berry's bill this time. It was the Senate telling him to clean up his own backyard.

Contrary to the newspaper's contention (and that of former NM Public Safety Director Fouratt) ABQ is the only major police agency in the state suffering a significant manpower shortage. That other newspaper--the ABQ Free Press--did the solid journalism proving that.

But there's more. Opponents who beat Berry in Santa Fe did not want to see officers brought back who were part of the toxic culture that has desecrated the department. It has
resulted in tens of millions of lost taxpayer dollars from lawsuits over illegal police shootings; it has forced the Federal government to intervene in the department, costing taxpayers even more millions; it has caused corruption like the Taser lapel camera deal and most damaging, it has compromised our community's safety and well-being.

Crime has skyrocketed under Berry's administration (see the latest FBI stats) and has so damaged the city's reputation that out-of-state businesses won't even consider having their employees live and work here. Berry's economy, like his police department, is the worst in modern history.

No, ABQ doesn't need to call its state senators when crime occurs, but they do need to send a wake-up call to this drowsy, ambivalent and responsibility shirking chief executive. In other words, clean up your own poop, Mr. Mayor.

PAIN IN THE. . . 

There is one fella who has been unwavering in his commitment to giving ABQ a wake-up call. He's Silvio Dell'Angela and the subject of a profile in the ABQ Free Press. It's called City Hall's Pain In The Ass." His critics call him a crank but he remains relentless, adding names to his ample email list as he scorches the powers-that-be over APD and the other top issues of the day.

STILL GOING 

We blogged this week about national economists raising the prospect that New Mexico will officially fall into recession soon. That had us asking Dr. Chris Erickson, NMSU economist, for the latest on the Las Cruces recession he has reported on:

The recession that began in March 2014 continues here in Las Cruces unabated. Employment in December was down 1.7 percent year-over-year while unemployment stood at 7.5%. A bright spot was a gain of 100 jobs in the health & education sector. This is what makes it particularly frustrating that the state failed to fully fund Medicaid. Those three-to-one matching federal dollars are sorely needed.

A recession now two years old and that hardly anyone talks about? Another reason Dr. Erickson is a charter member of our "No Bullshit Economists" club, along with his NMSU colleague, Dr. Jim Peach. Keep telling it like it is, fellas.

ABOUT THAT MEETING

The public meeting over Mayor Berry's rapid bus transit plan (ART) that erupted into chaos Wednesday night drew wide reader reaction. Joanie Griffin, who provides public relations for Bradbury and Stamm, the contractor for the $119 million project on Central Avenue, came with this:

I was one of the people trying to speak as part of the ART team last night. It was complete chaos. I do appreciate that people are upset. But screaming at City employees and the contractors does nothing to facilitate the process. Our intent with this series of public meetings is to present what is currently planned and get feedback from people. It's not a do you want ART or don't you want ART conversation. It's what can we do to mitigate the construction impacts and make this a project that works for people.

Rather than yelling and screaming, come up with some constructive alternatives and solutions. Right now businesses on Central are dying without ART. So what would they do to improve the business climate if not ART. Making a scene isn't constructive for anyone.

Susan Bradway writes:

While progress is a good thing, infrastructure must be in place to support that progress. The ART is a good idea but the infrastructure is not there. An economy near recession combined with a construction endeavor that will drive most would be shoppers away is an instant recipe for economic disaster for merchants along Central Ave. Combine the construction chaos with Albuquerque's elevated violent crime rate and that should about drive everyone out. Maybe that is the REAL plan. On some levels this is like the Behavioral Health debacle. Drive the present businesses out and put favored new ones in. Disgusting at best.

Reader Jim Cooke writes:

Joe, as an auto-free resident of the SE Fringecrest neighborhood I wonder how far $25 million would go in providing improved bus and jitney service in all the grossly under served districts peripheral to Central. Pretty far, I'd bet. I can hop on the No. 16 bus going West and, in minutes, get to Central where one risks drowning in the river of No.66s, 666s and 777s. Fine. But try to make it to an appointment in the South Valley, North Valley, or anywhere north of Central and one needs to factor in hours to account for serpentine bus routes, long walks and time-in-stir spent at connecting bus stops, not to mention the challenge of distilling those connections from the Transportation Department's opaque schedules.

ART is a particularly unimaginative project. We need the jobs, granted. Why not make those jobs permanent by de-Centralizing the existing scheme?

Reader Dan writes:

. . . This is $120 million shot in the arm that creates construction jobs, will spur economic development, improves transportation and makes ABQ look less blight-y which is a real problem in attracting businesses and new residents. Plus it preserves a right-of-way for future mass transit upgrade (street car, light rail). The businesses on Central opposing this are insane in my opinion. Businesses are already leaving and closing and a shovel has yet to hit the ground. While we think Nob Hill is such a great walkable area it is only by our car-centric standards. The sidewalks are too narrow (BRT project would widen them) and cars travel too fast (BRT would reduce lanes in some area to one car lane which would slow traffic and make it easier to cross the street). My preference would be a streetcar or light rail but that option is not on the table. It’s pure fantasy given our dire economic realities. If a vocal minority (who skew older) kill this project, ABQ is in worse shape than I feared.

There was another boisterous public meeting on ART Thursday night with most people in attendance adamantly opposed but feeling helpless that the project will be rammed through no matter their views. And where was Mayor Berry? Nowhere in sight to explain the massive $119 million project.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca is vacationing near the warm waters of Puerta Vallarta, Mexico and he writes:

Sitting in Mexico on a beach and watching the news come out of New Mexico and the United States one would think that they are looking at news from a Third World developing country in the midst of political crisis. It is almost laughable.

A "political crisis?" in New Mexico? We wouldn't know what it's like to live without one. Now back to your adult beverage, Jim.

That's it for this week. Thanks for stopping by.

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During one of her post legislative appearances Governor Martinez trotted out the shopworn idea of "right-to-work" as a panacea to bring jobs to her state which now sports the highest unemployment rate in the nation.  She claimed the Democrats lacked "imagination" for blocking what she called her "reform agenda" as she fell back on RTW as the chief plank of her skimpy economic program. RTW first popped up here when John Travolta was dancing in "Saturday Night Fever." Study after study fails to make a link between it and robust economic growth. Imagine that. . .

Martinez never frankly discusses our egregious jobs situation and these days pivots to her "all crime all the time" agenda. She is now warning legislators who did not go along with the crime theme that they would "have to answer" for it at the ballot box in November when all of them are up for election.

The Governor's decision to cuddle up to crime and cede the important issues of jobs, economic growth and the future by making the esoteric RTW her fall back position is looking more risky as the state continues to get crushed by falling energy prices and no economic growth. For many voters outside of ABQ, where the economic wreckage is especially acute, talking about crime fighting measures that are mainly for the big city may fall flat. And when you have 10,000 applicants for 290 ABQ Cheesecake Factory jobs, it's not an easy sell here in the metro.

Martinez has disengaged from the economic wreckage throughout her tenure, aided and abetted by a Republican business and media establishment that now clearly see that her agenda has not worked and that we are falling further behind. Still, they can't bring themselves to reject her because they can't bring themselves to support any Democrat.

If Gov. Martinez wants more "imagination" in our public policy, maybe she should call Washington and get an economic stimulus package moving in Congress for states that are in recession. Her state is halfway there. The number to the capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121.

By the way, Sinatra did a pretty cool job in this jazzy rendition of the song "Imagination." We dedicate it today to Keith Gardner. . .

BERRY'S BUSES (CONT)

ABQ Nob Hill businessman Steve Schroeder has withdrawn his effort to recall ABQ Dem SE Heights City Councilor Pat Davis. He's been upset with Mayor Berry and Davis over the city's $119 million plan for a bus rapid transit plan (ART) that would run through Nob Hill. He's still mad but the recall effort was going nowhere and while Davis supports ART in concept, he continues to hedge over details. Many of liberal constituents want the bus plan while businesses continue to organize against it.

Berry is in a hurry to break ground as opposition builds. The city continues to hold public meetings on the controversial plan and blog reader Frank Gilmer reports from the one held Wednesday night:

The ART meeting was at the old library at Edith and Central. It turned into a shouting match. Meeting presenters, after having technical problems trying to show a video, told us to break up into small groups and "mitigate" or ask questions. Former ABQ City Councilor Pete Dinelli asked that the overflow crowd instead be given a 15-minute opportunity to ask questions. Denied. Some unnamed activist then asked that those who were against the "done deal" to raise their hands. The "against" were certainly in the majority.

The newspaper reports the meeting was indeed chaotic:

A public meeting erupted into shouts of opposition and chaos late Wednesday as city officials tried to explain the Albuquerque Rapid Transit project to an angry crowd. It was the first of a series of five meetings. . .to address construction plans for the $119 million project — which would involve a system of dedicated bus lanes and stations along Central Avenue, the old Route 66.  One woman held a “Stop Ruining My Neighborhood” sign. Others shouted out questions and interrupted city transit officials who were trying to get everyone to break into small groups for more focused discussion.

Back to Dinell who lost to Berry for mayor in 2013, but says he's gratified that he recently helped kill Berry's legislative proposal to allow retired law enforcement officers to return to work at APD while still keeping their pensions. Now he tells us he is going for a kill on ART. Of the meeting, he writes:

What I did learn is this project seems to be a done deal and City Hall intends to break ground in May, whether or not all the funding is in place and regardless of public opposition. The ART bus project reminds me of when City Hall crammed urban renewal down our throats where the existing convention center and civic plaza now sits. Urban renewal destroyed downtown and ART as presented will destroy Route 66 and especially Nob Hill. City Hall has the nerve to suggest “loans” to now thriving businesses to get them through the one year construction phase. I strongly recommend people contact their City Councilor and encourage them to stop the ART project from starting and until the public is satisfied. Other meetings scheduled are: Feb. 25, 6:00 pm at Immanuel Presbyterian Church at Central and Carlisle for Nob Hill and University segments, March 1, 6:00 pm at the Old Town police substation, Central and Rio Grande for Old Town Segments, March 2 at Pat Baca Library at Central and Unser for West Central segments, March 3, 6:00 am at the Alice K. Hoppes African American Pavilion, 300 San Pedro

Democrat Dinelli is also asking Councilor Pat Davis to take an active role in halting ART.

ALL IN THE FAMILY 

Family ties go deep in Santa Fe and we're starting to believe that's the fundamental problem in resolving that city's $18 million budget crisis. They need to do layoffs, early buy-outs and furloughs but everyone is related to everyone else and the politicians can't bring themselves to take the heat resulting from unpadding the padded payroll.

No one wants to see more lost jobs, but the city council and mayor are now proposing to increase the dreaded and unfair gross receipts tax to avoid hard but necessary choices. They also want to raise property taxes and rob the water utility fund to keep the payroll party going. They propose to do only $4 million in budget cuts. That's a recipe for more hurt for already hard hit Santa Fe working families.

Is it fair to the thousands of working class waiters, waitresses and laborers in one of the nation's tourism centers to be carrying on their backs much higher paid city employees whose jobs, according to various comparison studies, are not needed?  It is the rank and file private sector workers who will pay most of the increased taxes and higher rents that will result from this political family protection act the council has undertaken.

The Santa Fe fiscal follies were camouflaged for years by the booming bull market in tourism and the accompanying tax revenue. That's gone--maybe forever. A much poorer city population shouldering the burden resulting from the carelessness of a political class with a major case of myopia is no way to run the Santa Fe railroad. . .

At a recent hearing of the ABQ City Council's finance committee the news wasn't very inspiring. City Councilor Ken Sanchez pointed to prospective budget deficits in the years ahead as the city continues to wrestle with weak growth and loss of revenue from the state. (Reader Charles Arasim sent this video.) City officials say they use conservative income projections and that the budget holes will be filled but it's a reminder of how ABQ remains on a tight fiscal leash.

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Welcome back. Let's get right to more of our real deal biz coverage, the stuff you won't get anywhere else. And that stuff today is recession. It appears the state is on the edge of plunging into an official recession, defined as two quarters of negative economic growth.

That will come as no shock around here. We've reported the stunning news this week that 10,000 applicants filed for 290 jobs at the ABQ Cheesecake Factory that opens today, the devastating impact the oil and natural gas crash has had on the state economy and the plunge in tax collections.  From Bloomberg:

Four states--Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming--are in a recession, and three others are at risk of prolonged declines, according to indexes of state economic performance tracked by Moody’s Analytics. The regions suffering the most are in the flop stage of the energy industry’s boom-to-bust cycle. . . Job gains and losses are key factors that the National Bureau of Economic Research uses to chart U.S. expansions and recessions. Even as U.S. employers added 2.7 million workers in 2015, job cuts last year totaled 18,800 in North Dakota, 11,800 in West Virginia and 6,400 in Wyoming, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The common thread? They all have concentrations of energy companies. . . Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma are all at risk of recession, according to Moody’s. 

We saw the front fangs of a recession when the Legislature this month approved a budget for the next fiscal year that is actually $7 million less than the current one. If recession takes hold it would have to be cut even more because of falling revenues or lawmakers and the Governor would have to entertain a tax increase or other revenue enhancements.

The "R" word is no stranger in Las Cruces. It went into recession last year and remains there, according to NMSU economist Dr. Chris Erickson. The question now is how far and wide does it spread. ABQ's less energy dependent economy could spare it from the worst effects, but the city's economy is anemic at best. UNM and CNM have announced personnel cutbacks, Nob Hill continues to get slammed with vacancies and then there is that terrible employment situation. New Mexico has the highest unemployment rate in the USA.

The state will know at the end of this quarter if it has officially gone into recession by suffering two quarters of negative activity.

BERRY'S BUSES

Mayor Berry's rapid transit plan for a stretch of Central Avenue has a price tag now of $119 million, up from $100 million. You could argue the project, the lion's share of which would be financed from a federal grant, could serve to stimulate the economy, but reader Jerry, a transportation engineer, says it would inflict more economic pain by slowing business:

Joe, Some the things that should standout:

1. The level of service is important because it rates traffic movement from A to F.  I see the restriction from two traffic lanes to one as a big red flag for traffic flow. If the level starts out at C or D  F is standstill traffic) no one will want to get close to Nob Hill.

2. The second big question is loading and unloading transit passengers. These pedestrians will be loading and unloading in the median. That means they have to cross the street with strollers and wheelchairs and packages, slowing the one lane traffic movement to a stand still.

3. My last point is the type of passengers using the transit system will not frequent these businesses in the first place. Many are the poor and homeless. It will not work, bad idea.

Reader Kevin Wenderoth comes with the counterpoint:

Millennials and the population at large are fleeing Albuquerque for cities all over the country. They are going to places that offer viable, dependable alternatives to the private automobile. They're going to New York , San Francisco, Denver, LA and Austin. All of these places have strong public transit and are continuing to invest in projects like BRT and/or light rail.

Why do you think Central and Nob Hill in particular is a fun place to hang out? It's not because it's easy to drive through. It's because it's the most pedestrian-friendly place in the city. For this same reason, there are no comparable retail scenes along Coors, Paseo del Norte, or Tramway. ART will only improve and enhance the pedestrian safety and atmosphere of Nob Hill, and retail in the area, despite some inevitable troubles during construction, will be all the better for it.
Thanks, Jerry and Kevin. We''ll continue to carry comment--pro and con--on the controversial proposal. Berry says he hopes to break ground on the plan by June.

POLL TALK

A Gov. Martinez operative asserts we were wrong when we said there was no polling of the governor's approval rating since her disastrous December holiday pizza party. They produced a poll that they say was taken by Democrats and asked about Martinez's job performance. However, we never said there was "no polling" of Martinez. The operative is wrong.

We said we want to see the ABQ Journal--which recently polled voters' presidential preferences here--to do a poll of Martinez. That would be an independent, nonpartisan objective survey. And to our knowledge there have been none of those since the pizza party. The Dem poll cited by the Gov's machine and taken in January had Martinez over 50% approval. However, another partisan poll we saw taken of parts of western NM showed her below that level.

Until we get a nonpartisan, objective poll--not from candidates or political parties--we do not know the governor's current approval rating. And that's the way it is. . .

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Another economic sinkhole just opened. This time it's in Roswell in the SE NM oil patch were the bear market in oil prices is now crushing the budget of that city of 50,000:

. . . Year to date, the city of Roswell is short $1.4 million in gross receipts taxes. Poor economic trends with the state’s gas and oil prices take much of the blame for the financial imbalance. “I think this is related to gas and oil as well as our overall state economy,” said (Roswell City councilor Caleb) Grant.

Roswell joins Santa Fe in seeing the bottom drop out of its budget. In the capital city they are $18 million short and it looks like they are going to raise taxes rather than downsize to resolve the deficit. The state budget is also in perilous shape with everything now depending on the price of oil rebounding to near $40 a barrel. Right now it's in the low 30's.

The famous King ranching family that gave us Bruce King as governor is ready to call it a day:

The massive King Brothers’ Alamo Ranch northwest of Rio Rancho is up for sale with a $33 million price tag. . . Since its purchase in 1961 by the late Gov. Bruce King and his brothers, the property is considered to be one of New Mexico’s legacy ranches. The working ranch encompasses 60,000 deeded acres and 14,000 leased acres of state land. . .  “I think the family just feels it’s a good time to sell, given the ranch market,” said Jeff Buerger, a broker for Hall and Hall.

Reader Deryle Perryman sends this in:

Panelist Gary Goodman, owner and president of the Goodman Realty Group, which is developing ABQ's Winrock Town Center, had a slightly different take on the question of money. “Everywhere I look, capital seems to be a major problem,” Goodman said,“A lack of venture capital, a lack of capital to invest in our basic infrastructure and a reluctance to invest. . .

Well, Goodman has it right but until the business community starts putting the blame where it belongs--at the feet of the Republican Governor, Republican House and conservative Senate austerity Democrats, he and his brethren are getting no boost in capital.

If Goodman and other biz leaders do decide to speak out about the lack of political leadership, they will have a sympathetic audience. ABQ voters recently gave resounding approval to that big ABQ Public Schools $575 million bond and mill levy measure. And here's a partial reason why:

Construction workers, plumbers, electricians, engineering firms, decorators, architects and contractors all depend on Albuquerque Public Schools, which dominates the local construction industry. Since 2009, the district has accounted for 65 percent to 85 percent of all building permits in the city and Bernalillo County, according to an APS analysis of city and county data. That percentage is so high because New Mexico is still struggling with the aftermath of the economic crash that hit in late 2007 and slowed other sources of commercial construction.

And the austerity hawks put their beaks in the air when it comes to government spending? Geez. . .

WHAT ABOUT HER?

The newspaper decided to poll Republicans on what Democratic presidential candidate they prefer. That's off the beaten path. What politics watchers and interested citizens really want to know is the polling numbers for Republican Governor Susana Martinez. What is the view of her in the post-pizza party era and with a still rocky economy? The December pizza party gone bad went viral and may have forever redefined perceptions of the governor thus impacting how she conducts business in the remaining years of her term.

We blogged last month of glimpsing some regional polling conducted in the western part of the state that showed her sinking below the critical 50% approval level. What's the story statewide? NM's presidential primary is June 7 and will likely have no role in choosing either party's prez nominee. Knowing who the state's voters prefer for the White House is titillating but not particularly relevant. Knowing Martinez's approval rating, however, has real policy consequences--consequences we're guessing her protectors in the media don't want to know or consider.

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Any notion that the jobs crisis was abating here was dashed to the ground with the astounding news that 10,000 people applied for 290 positions at the new ABQ Cheesecake Factory. It was was the kind of stunner that sent your head reeling, your Starbucks cup dropping to the ground and prompted wonder if the city is ever going to be able to dig out of this.

You say you didn't hear the news? Well, like so many troubling economic developments around here it was mostly swept under the media rug, with brief reports in only a few media outlets.

In 2013 when Target was opening a new store in Uptown and nearly 3,000 applied for 200 jobs that paid $9 an hour, the headlines blared and the talking TV heads talked plenty. Why not now? Have they given up? Pressured to give up? But we digress. . .

The state has the highest jobless rate in the nation. Governor Martinez, Mayor Berry and the Republican-controlled state House have chosen to largely ignore it rather than confront it. The problem is so sizable and confounding that you can sympathize with their predicament but not with the abdication of their responsibility.

No doubt many of those 10,000 applicants were seeking second and even third jobs to make ends meet. The city's job market remains a starved, low-wage environment, especially for those without higher education or technical skills required for better paying work.

Ten thousand. That's a massive number in a town this size, not only revealing the depth of the crisis but also debunking the contention that the jobless don't want to work. (The Cheesecake Factory says it may be a national record). It should serve as a call to arms to every soul involved in economic development. And where is the new generation of politicians ready to go to bat on jobs and bring some good old fashioned populism to the table? Do we have to import Bernie Sanders?

The state and city do have an economic policy. In fact, there are two slogans in the running to describe it. The first is, "Love It Or Leave It." The second is, "Let Them Eat Cheesecake!"

We'll finish off this little missive by saying it one more time: Before this transformational economic era in state history concludes you are going to see and hear things you wouldn't believe possible. 10,000 people applying for 290 Cheesecake Factory jobs is surely among them.

SECOND TERMITIS

Second terms are a bitch. You can quote us on that. Not only is Gov. Martinez's chief political adviser being investigated by a federal grand jury for possible campaign finance violations, now the four Dems in the state's congressional delegation want a federal probe of the administration's suspension of all those behavioral health care providers a few years back. So far, AG Balderas has cleared all but two of them of any wrongdoing, despite the administration's insistence that they were defrauding Medicaid and had to be replaced with out-of-state providers. Pay to play? One assumes the Feds would go there if they agree to investigate.

It's the first real attack on the Fourth Floor from the delegation in the over five years she has been in office. The Guv's office calls it a "partisan stunt" coming from "Washington politicians." Maybe, but then this is the second term. . .

CALL IT BACK?

And speaking of Medicaid, a number of readers ask why in the name of Dr. Barry Ramo would the Legislature slash the increase in state Medicaid funds for the next budget year to a mere $20 million? They point out that the state gets three dollars from the Feds for every state Medicaid dollar spent and that health care--spurred on by the expansion of Medicaid--is one of the few job engines in the state. From UNM:

Medicaid will be short as much as $90 million, which will require cuts in health care services of at least $400 million because of the federal funding we will forego.
In FY2015, 64% (4,400 of 6,900) new jobs were in health care; 40% of these in ‘social assistance’ and 60% outside metro areas. according to  UNM-BBER.

Lawmakers were dealing with a crashing budget when they made the Medicaid decision but they may want to call that play back when they next meet. That might be in a special session to address the ongoing budget dilemma.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Thanks to Journey Santa Fe (Bill Dupuy and Alan Webber) and Collected Bookworks on Galisteo for hosting us Sunday for a fine discussion of the recent legislative session. A good turnout and great questions. Afterwards we walked over to Elevation Bistro for more La Politica and great sandwiches with Webber, a 2014 Dem Guv candidate who says he will consider another run in 2018, and popular Santa Fe morning radio talk show host Richard Eeds (KVSF 101.5 FM). The estimable Dem State Senator Peter Wirth will be the next speaker in the series next Sunday at 11 a.m. (Try not to stick Webber with a lunch tab, Peter. Eeds and the blog already did that.). . .

On the Friday blog a representative from Common Cause identified Rep. Zach Cook as being from Roswell. He is from Ruidoso. And finally, we misidentified the father of Steve Anaya in discussing Mike Anaya's run for the state senate. Hopefully, someone will come forth to claim Steve. Meantime, you can find him holding forth as head of the NM Realtors Association.

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