Friday, March 11, 2016The NM Medicaid Dilemma
This column is also appearing in the current edition of the ABQ Free Press.
Say someone offered you three or four dollars if you gave them a dollar bill? A no-brainer, right? Apparently not in the befuddled halls of the Roundhouse. Here's the story.
The bean counters are now reporting that the state Medicaid budget is $86 million short. The healthcare program for low income New Mexicans was expanded by President Obama and Gov. Martinez signed off on it. Because the Feds give generous matching funds for every Medicaid dollar the state spends, if we don't come up with that $86 million we will actually come up short $416 million. With the horrific economic impact such a drastic cut in spending would have on an already ailing economy, you would think Santa Fe would be in a rush to fill the budget gap, take the federal match and keep Medicaid up and running at full strength.
But getting $86 million from a state budget already ravaged by the collapse in oil revenue, weak tax collections from a weak economy and years of excessive tax cutting, has the austerity hawks in the Martinez administration and Legislature looking at cutting the program instead of fully funding it, leaving on the table that $416 million.
If reimbursement rates for medical professionals are slashed dramatically many will join the exodus out of the state. Reducing care for the 850,000 low income New Mexicans who receive it could mean an even less healthy and less prepared work force. Healthcare has been one of the few sectors showing robust job growth and if this Medicaid debacle is not resolved that will end. Remember, this state has the highest jobless rate in the nation.
Before the conservatives go off the rails over Medicaid being too generous and that it can withstand severe cuts, keep in mind that Medicaid covers single adults who make up to $16,242 a year. A family of four making up to $33,465 qualifies. Our economy and wages are so in the cellar that it's expected that well over 900,000 residents--nearly half the state's population--will qualify for Medicaid by July 2017. This is not a population with alternatives.
The recent legislative session ended with a round of self-congratulations and back slapping but now we are seeing the budget lawmakers crafted is akin to flying on a wing and a prayer. They did not do the heavy lifting necessary to ensure proper funding for Medicaid or the rest of state government.
Behind this Medicaid crisis looms political nonsense. Namely, the insistence by Martinez and her fellow Republicans that taxes can never be raised for any reason. Never mind if it could mean you get a ride to the cemetery instead of the ER.
Martinez reluctantly signed on to the Medicaid expansion. A number of other Republican governors refused. She had no choice because of the hundreds of thousands in need here. If she opposed the expansion she might have lost her re-election bid. Now that she is no longer running she is pursuing he national ambitions and has put the state in her rear-view mirror.
Hope is not a sound budget strategy but that's what the Governor and the Legislature have given us. They hope oil prices jump and they hope the economy reinvigorates resulting in a leap in state revenue that solves the Medicaid crunch. If not, don't worry. It's just a bunch of poor people who don't vote and don't contribute to political campaigns.
The mismanagement in Santa Fe is bad enough during good times but in bad times like these it is dangerous. True and responsible leadership would have a handful of House Republicans join with Democrats and raise the gasoline tax to begin solving the crisis. They could also agree to sweep into the budget millions of dollars for pet projects approved by the Legislature but left gathering dust, sometimes for years.
In these ever more challenging times the state desperately needs bold leadership, but right now we'd settle for some that knows that getting four bucks for spending one is a good deal.
This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Thursday, March 10, 2016The Guv's Office Really, Really Doesn't Like Michael Sanchez; We Have An Example, Plus: Boom! 25% Of State's Population Receives Food Stamps; May Be Historic High As Slow Motion Econ Crisis Drags On They really, really don't like Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez on the Fourth Floor of the Roundhouse where Governor Martinez and her staff hold forth. How much do they dislike him? Well. . .One of our Alligators was visiting the Fourth Floor recently (they're everywhere!) and got this screen grab outside the Guv's office of the wireless networks available there. One of them is named "MichaelSanchezHatesNewMexico." Who that wifi network belongs to is unknown (no way that's you, Susana?) but it publicly captures the depth of hostility the Guv and her political machine have for the Valencia County lawmaker who has often frustrated the Governor by derailing her legislative proposals. The Fourth Floor is obviously relishing the candidacy of GOP attorney Greg Baca who filed for the Sanchez seat this week and is unopposed in the primary. Sanchez is also unopposed for his party's nomination, setting the pair up for an expensive general election duel. The Guv's machine failed miserably in trying to take out Sanchez four years ago. There were complaints from some R's then and we will no doubt hear them again that the money devoted to take out Sanchez could be better spent on other races that are more winnable. In any event, after six years of unbridled animosity in New Mexico government, maybe it's time to "Stop the Hatin'." JAWDROPPING ECON NEWS Now more of our real deal economic coverage. The stuff you will only get here. . . It was no small news that US District Judge Ken Gonzales issued an injunction that prevents NM from enforcing work requirements for certain food stamp (SNAP) recipients. But what really grabbed our attention was the statement from the Human Services Department that as of January there are now over 500,000 New Mexicans receiving the food assistance. It's 514,000 to be precise. With a state population of 2.086 million as of 2014, it means 25% of the state's residents are on food stamps. Wow. We think that is an historic high as the rate has been hovering around the low 20's for a number of years. It speaks to the deepening and widening recession/stagnation gripping this state. The food stamp news comes on the heels of the shocker that in a year or so 50% of the state's population will be on the government Medicaid program. New Mexico's economy is regressing; much of the population is going backwards. It is a slow motion crisis that our political and business leadership has been unable to interrupt. The food stamp work rules that Gov. Martinez wanted impacted only a small portion of those receiving the benefit. Besides, it's jobs most people want, not government handouts. Didn't the Governor and her staff hear the news that 10,000 people recently applied for 290 jobs at the new ABQ Cheesecake Factory? People are losing hope and leaving. The welfare state is deepening. The New Mexico that was always poor but not so impoverished is fading away. Leaders are needed who have a deep passion for the state, who are willing to admit this new reality and who are willing to take unpopular positions to address it. Gentle reader, we've got to say it again, although it may sound like a broken record. Before this transformative economic era in this state is over you are going to see things you never thought you would see, like 25% of the population on food stamps and 50% on Medicaid. HE'S A COP
Yes, I am a former “cop.” I strapped on a gun and vest for nearly 24 years. I lost my partner, Jerry Cline, who was killed in the line of duty in my rookie year. I worked my way up through the ranks taking on the toughest assignments, including supervising the Gang Unit. I prosecuted my first DWI case in the early 80’s. In 2005, I became a lawyer and prosecutor now handling cases as a Special Prosecutor. In the past 30 years I’ve probably spent more time in the courtroom then most legal professionals. I‘ve been a leader in law enforcement and the legal community. I’ve been appointed by the City Council to help revamp the Police Oversight Ordinance and was appointed by the County Commission to serve on the Code of Conduct Review (ethics) Board to ensure employees and elected officials are held accountable. Just a quick snapshot—but wanted to expand on being a former cop. Thanks, Joe. Perea and Raul Torrez are seeking the Dem nod for district attorney in the June primary election. THE BOTTOM LINES Here's the obituary of former NM Congressman Tom Morris of Tucumcari who died at the age of 96. . . Some clean up: We blogged this week that 1954 was a presidential election year. It was not. . .And Dem ABQ State House candidate Damon Ely is a former Sandoval County Commissioner, not a current commissioner. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Wednesday, March 09, 2016Some Smoke Clears From Campaign '16 As Filing Day Is Completed; R Takeover Of Senate Is Longshot Indeed Plus: The Key To The House, A Filing Day Gator Strike, Some Political Tidbits And More Trump Power While the Republican hope of taking over the State Senate for the first time in decades may not be a pipe dream, filing day made clear it is a very, very long shot. The Senate is currently divided 24 to 18 so the R's would need to pick up three seats to get to 21 and tie up the chamber. They would then have GOP Lt. Governor John Sanchez to break tie votes in their favor. So it's three to tie and four to take outright control. But appointed GOP Senator Ted Barela is very likely to lose his northern Dem-leaning district. Now you are down to 17 R's. GOP Dona Ana Senator Lee Cotter is another on the critical list. His political death takes you down to 16 R's. Okay, say the Dems lose Dona Ana Dem Sen. Bill Soules, which they could. That takes you back to 17 R's. Assume Sandoval County Dem Senator John Sapien goes down to R Diego Espinoza--if Sapien surveys a Dem primary challenge he's getting from progressive Dem Jodilynn Ortiz. That would take the R's to 18, right where they are today and maybe the best they can expect. The other seats they hope to put in play to go beyond that number will be as hard as pulling molars. ABQ Dem Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto holds one of them. He drew a pretty good challenger in Republican attorney Eric Lyon Burton. But the Dems have held the seat since 2008 so this would be a major upset that would get you to 19 R's. (Also these ABQ NE Heights seats are more Dem friendly as the economy continues to get downsized). We're fast running out of real estate, with only one other contested contest on our "in play" list. The GOP will again spend big money to take out Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez. They think they have a good candidate in attorney Greg Baca but his odds are long against the powerful leader. Making matters worse for the R's, the Dems say Baca only recently moved into the Valencia County district. The Governor's machine spent huge and ran statewide TV ads against Sanchez four years ago. It failed. But say this time it turned into an epic GOP night and Sanchez went down. Now you are up to 20 GOP senators. And that would be an extraordinary and historic night in a presidential election year which will feature higher Democratic turnout. The bottom line? The best possible Republican scenario as outlined above still does not get the Grand Old Party in the winner's circle and it is highly unlikely to reflect the final reality. Come November if the R's can hold on to the 18 seats they have now, it would be a very good night for them. KEYS TO THE HOUSE  As for the State House, the Dems need to pick up three seats to get to 36 and retake the majority from the R's. The odds of that happening? Well, better than the odds of the Senate going Republican.The Dems have come up with a pretty decent roster for the targeted seats and the R's will be playing more defense than they did in the 2014 election when turnout crashed to historic lows. When the R's last took control of the NM House--in 1952--they lost it in the 1954. Will we have a repeat of history? State Dems have lost their voice in recent years, with a weak message backed up by consultants and candidates who simply would not or could not take on the Governor's political machine. This year they can't simply rely on a higher voter turnout model and preach a watery bipartisanship that has led them into oblivion. They need a strong message and it will have to be delivered with emphasis in ABQ and Las Cruces. We've seen glimpses of the economic message they need from ABQ Dem House candidates Ane Romero and Damon Ely, but the party needs to make it a statewide coordinated message backed by backbone and mobilization. The Democratic Party is the party of the cities. Their best bet to retake the House is to win the ABQ seat held by Republicans Sarah Maestas Barnes, the one left vacant by the retirement of ABQ Republican Conrad James and the two Dona Ana County seats held by Republicans Terry McMillan and Andy Nunez (there had been speculation here that McMillan would not run). But if their economic message is weak and they continue to accommodate the Governor's machine by failing to hold the executive accountable for the state's economic crisis, the R agenda of "all crime all the time" will be appealing to voters and the Dems will again come up short. FILING DAY TIDBITS Out in Indian Country, former Dem State Rep. and the always entertaining Sandra Jeff is back and challenging incumbent Dem Senator Bennie Shendo in the primary. It's Shendo's to lose. . .Longtime political rivals Shannon Robinson and Mimi Stewart will face each other in a Dem Senate primary in Bernalillo County. Stewart is the incumbent, but Robinson held the SE area seat for years, ending in 2008. It's Stewart's to lose. . . And more from Indian Country as 91 year old Dem Senator John Pinto has filed for another four year term, but Willie Nez will try to oust him in the June primary, or at least continue to monitor the elderly Senator's heart beat. . . GOP State Senator John Ryan will not seek re-election. There are two R's seeking to replace him. Candace Ruth Gould, wife of prominent lobbyist Leland Gould, is the favorite. The couple have been major supporters of the Guv. The Dems have fielded David Simon who has a strong resume, but this ABQ area seat is GOP leaning. . . Four Republican candidates are seeking to replace retiring ABQ GOP State Senator Sue Wilson Beffort, including former State Rep. James White who is the favorite to take the nomination and then keep the seat in the R column in November in the heavy GOP district. GATOR STRIKE
Joe, James Dickens is a longtime Republican who has switched parties so he can run as a Democrat and challenge District Attorney Mark D'Antonio who is a longtime foe of Governor Martinez and Amy Orlando. Both are former Dona Ana DA's. If Dickens, who once worked for Martinez in the DA's office, could beat D' Antonio, the Governor would be back in power at the office. . . Dickens has a long history of giving to Republican candidates, but he says in an rebuttal email: I switched parties years before I had any intention of running for office. My decision was reached only after a number of life events and struggles that led me to understand how important providing for the common good improves all of society. Dickens adds that he has had "only one conversation" with Martinez in the past "few years." And Dickens points out that incumbent D'Antonio switched from Republican to Democrat in March of 2011 and was elected DA the next year. Not a bad defense, Dickens, but your ties to the Guv's Machine are too deep to strike down this Gator strike. Consider yourself bitten. Congratulations, or something. BERNCO ACTION Now that four-term Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg, the longest-serving DA here in history, has announced she will not seek re-election, all eyes turn to who will replace her. The Dem hopefuls are former assistant US Attorney Raul Torres and former APD cop turned lawyer and sometimes prosecutor Ed Perea. Torres has a lot more cash on hand for TV ads that are needed for this countywide race and starts as the favorite. Republican Simon Kubiak will take on the winner in November. Like your politics on the crazy side? Never mind the GOP presidential contest, take a look at the four way Dem primary for Bernalillo County treasurer. Former Treasurer Patrick Padilla is taking on incumbent Treasurer Manny Ortiz and battling with two lesser knowns as well. The duo were the best of buddies for years, giving each other a job in the treasurer's office when the other one was out of power. Padilla vs. Ortiz. It's a grudge match that even Holly Holm won't want to miss. . . TRUMP POWER
But in this wild election year, we're also Feelin' the Bern. He did a nice job last night. . . Meanwhile, Governor Susana's prez fave, Marco Rubio, was once again getting his clocked clean by Trump last night, only days after Martinez endorsed him. Come on, Susana, get back in the game and join us in Vegas for the Trump celebration. We promise there will be no pizza party jokes. . . Thanks for making us New Mexico's #1. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Tuesday, March 08, 2016Filing Day Today For All 112 Legislative Seats; We Take A Sneak Peek, Plus : Watching For Fourth Floor Staff Movement And Former NM Congressman Morris Passes At 96 There will only be a handful of contested primaries so the June primary will be a quiet affair, unless the presidential race is still going hot and heavy. The expected general election match-up in House District 23 between State Rep. Paul Pacheco and attorney Damon Ely, his Dem challenger who is a former Sandoval County Commissioner, has caught our eye. Why? Because Ely frames his race in a way that many consultants and critics feel is the only way for the Dems to get back in the game and perhaps retake the House from the R's: Talking to the residents of our district, one common concern continued to be brought up: the lack of jobs and economic development. One of the main reasons I decided to run is because of the situation my son faces. He is attending school out of state but has been trying to find a way to come home once he graduates. Unfortunately, he has been unable to find any jobs here. Only 2% of those who leave the state to go to school end up coming back. We are losing our best and brightest because our economy is staggering and jobs are leaving. Over the past five years, we have seen a steady decline in our population. We have an education system that does not value our amazing educators and fails to properly invest in early childhood education. We have seen an economy that is disproportionately reliant on our oil and gas industry rather than investing in home grown alternative energy sources. Those are all themes that have been swept under the rug, with the R's planning to make Campaign '16 an anti-crime crusade. Not that that isn't important, but much of the crime problem is related to the long economic downturn. Rep. Pacheco will be a tough foe for noted trial lawyer Ely. He is seeking his third term and has proven popular for his push to reform the driver's license laws for undocumented immigrants. He scored a win on that one this year. He is also a former police officer and will be well-financed with the help of the Guv's machine. The Ely-Pacheco contest offers the possibility of a good debate over what New Mexico needs to emphasize. Politics being what it is these days it could descend into a duel about whose body parts are bigger or smaller. We hope not. District 23 covers parts of NW Albuquerque, Rio Rancho and Corrales. It leans R. The Dems best bet is in a presidential election year like this one when turnout increases. KEY DEVELOPMENT There's a lot to look for in today's legislative filings, but one that stands out is whether ABQ Dem State Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto gets a strong Republican foe or any R foe at all. If the R's don't flex muscle in this swing district, their boasts about taking over the State Senate will be seen in many quarters as so much hot air. GARDNER WATCH Hi Keith, you are officially on Gator Watch now that your educator wife has left her state job with the education department and taken a gig as an assistant principal at ABQ's Madison Middle School. Will her husband, Keith Gardner, Gov. Martinez's chief of staff, be following her out the door soon? Could be. Lots of staffers are going to be looking for jobs as the administration's second term grows longer in the tooth. SUSANA AND TRUMP A reader writes: Here’s a thought for you. It’s surprising that Susana Martinez didn't endorse Trump given the similarities of their style. Neither can articulate their plans or strategies--instead they just make nasty comments about their political opponents. TOM MORRIS
East side real estate broker Richard Randals tells us Morris passed away Saturday and that his services will be Thursday at 10:30 at the First Presbyterian Church. . . And the Martha Godbey, widow of former ABQ GOP State Rep. Ron Godbey, has passed away in Texas at the age of 81. The couple was popular in NM GOP circles. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Monday, March 07, 2016Post-McCleskey Political Era Will Have To Wait As Feds Fold On Indictment, Plus: The Great Unraveling: First The Oil Crash; Now The Medicaid Crisis; Soon A Million Recipients And A Giant Budget Hole
The serious legal questions raised by the federal grand jury probe put McCleskey and Martinez on softer legal ground. There will be more scrutiny of him and the millions he hopes to raise this year in an effort to keep Republican control of the State House and take control of the State Senate. And, on the moral authority front Martinez was downgraded by her infamous holiday pizza party when audio tapes revealed her bossing around low-level hotel employees and the police--and appearing pretty loaded while doing so. Still, the no indictment outcome had to cause a big sigh of relief for the pair. An indictment would have been devastating to them and cratered their campaign plans as Jay awaited trial. They live to fight another day, but because McCleskey overreached and triggered an investigation the fight in him and Martinez will not be as furious. Another reason for that is the calendar. Tomorrow is filing day for all the legislative seats. It will be the last chance for Martinez/McCleskey to push candidates into the primary and general election races. State Senators, in particular, will be free to roam about the building once they know with certainty that they are not machine targets. THE GREAT UNRAVELING
The secretary said the shortfall will amount to a hefty $86 million over the next 16 months, but because that money is matched much more than that by the Feds, the actual shortfall will be an elephantine $417 million. Gov. Martinez agreed to President Obama's plan to expand Medicaid but she and the Legislature have yet to figure out how to pay for it. Because there are so many low-income New Mexicans, they are eligible for Medicaid. Come July 2017 it's expected half the state or nearly 1 million individuals will be on Medicaid. Boom! Folks, we'll say it again. Before the radical transformation of the economy here is finished, you're going to continue to see and hear things you never thought possible. Add 1 million New Mexicans getting Medicaid to the list of shockers (and you thought 10,000 applicants for 290 Cheesecake Factory jobs in ABQ was the topper.) You can't cut your way out of the Medicaid hole. Santa Fe needs to find cash and fast. Taking over $400 million out of medical care--one of the few sectors growing jobs in this state which is saddled with the highest jobless rate in the USA--is economic suicide. Still Martinez and company are still chanting "no new taxes" even as state government sinks into the abyss and the state economy seems headed for its worst performing decade since the Great Depression (we'll get our No Bullshit Economists working on that one). How our elected leaders can refuse to come up with $86 million when it means over $400 million in spending for health care is a question for a political malpractice lawyer, not a blogger. Here's some low-lying fruit to get that $86 million. Yes, do some cuts. Then start sweeping some of the hundreds of millions in unspent capital outlay into Medicaid for at least a one time funding fix; raise the gas tax a nickel a gallon for three years and slow down the corporate income tax cut that has failed to attract businesses as promised. That means legislative finance leaders such as Senator John Arthur Smith and House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Harper must get busy with Secretary Earnest and stop the nonsense about no new taxes forever and ever, even if it means citizens head to the cemetery instead of the ER. If Medicaid is allowed to go into the gutter look for high quality medical professionals to join the exodus out of here and for a work force even less prepared to work. You think it can't get worse? Think again. STUMPING WITH SUSANA There's no use imploring Gov. Martinez to join in the Medicaid problem solving. She's out of here. It's kind of like Big Bill when he found succor on the national stage. As the Medicaid crisis brewed and oil prices stayed in the cellar, she was off to Kansas Friday to give a badly timed endorsement of Marco Rubio, with a dash of Trump bashing thrown in. (Transcript here. Video here). No sooner had she announced Rubio as her new Prez pal and he goes and loses a bunch of states and is essentially out of the race. Like we said this political machine is dented--and showing rust when it pulls stunts like that. . . This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 |
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